Aaron MacNeil

Aaron MacNeil inquired if the Mainline Optimization Phase Two (MLO-2) disclosure indicates an acceleration in expanded egress for Canadian producers, asking about the drivers like customer demand or market timing. He also questioned if the $35 billion secured capital, with significant 2027 in-service dates, suggests a high plateau of capital entering service towards the decade's end, and if there are sequencing issues to maintain the $9-10 billion annual spend.

Answer

Greg Ebel, President and CEO, noted that the MLO-2 might exceed some expectations, driven by strong Canadian oil sands fundamentals and customer demand. Collin Grending, Head of Liquids Pipeline Business Unit, clarified it's not an acceleration but a consistent progression, highlighting 600,000 bpd supply growth by decade-end and the strategic use of existing infrastructure and joint ventures for Southern Illinois Connector, MLO-1, and the upsized MLO-2. Greg Ebel and Pat Murray, EVP and CFO, affirmed confidence in maintaining the capital spend, with projects extending into 2029-2030, ensuring a continuous growth pipeline.

Aaron MacNeil inquired if the Mainline Optimization Phase Two disclosure indicates an acceleration in expanded egress for Canadian producers, asking about the drivers like customer demand or a race to market. He also asked about capital sequencing, specifically if the significant 2027 in-service capital implies a 'high plateau' towards the decade's end and if there are timing or sequencing issues to maintain the $9-10 billion annual spend.

Answer

Greg Ebel, President and CEO, provided context on Canadian oil sands advantages and strong U.S. dollar netbacks. Collin Grending, Head of Liquids Pipeline Business Unit, clarified it's not an acceleration but a consistent effort driven by basin fundamentals and customer demand, detailing Southern Illinois Connector, MLO-1 (150k bpd), and MLO-2 (upsized to 250k bpd) utilizing existing infrastructure and JVs. Greg Ebel and Pat Murray, EVP and CFO, expressed confidence in maintaining the $9-10 billion annual spend, continuously adding projects for 2027-2030, and affirming the 5% growth outlook, noting a 'flywheel' effect.

Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen questioned the status of the Cowboy Solar and Seven Stars projects amid changing tax credits, the capacity to sanction more solar projects, and sought specifics on the Homer City gas project.

Answer

President & CEO Gregory Ebel and EVP of Power Matthew Akman confirmed strong customer demand for power, noting late-stage projects should qualify for tax credits and fit within their capital capacity. Regarding Homer City, Ebel and EVP of Gas Transmission Cynthia Hansen described it as a large, long-term opportunity with significant work remaining, emphasizing Enbridge's ability to provide economical expansions on its existing Texas Eastern system.

Aaron MacNeil inquired about Enbridge's optimism regarding permitting reform in Canada and the U.S., and what is needed for large-scale infrastructure development. He also asked about the factors giving customers confidence to support the Mainline optimization project amidst economic uncertainty.

Answer

President and CEO Greg Ebel expressed enthusiasm for the renewed focus on energy infrastructure from policymakers in both countries, but stressed the need for campaign rhetoric to translate into concrete policy. Colin Gruending, EVP of Liquids Pipelines, added that confidence in Mainline optimization is high due to a strong supply outlook, the system being full, and the economic viability of debottlenecking projects even at low oil prices.

Aaron MacNeil asked if toll increases or rate cases, particularly regarding the Canadian mainline settlement expiring in 2026, have been contemplated in the 2028 EBITDA guidance or if they represent potential upside. He also inquired about potential challenges or bottlenecks with contractors and supply chain pressures, and whether the current level of capital cost outperformance can be sustained.

Answer

Tina Faraca (EVP and COO of Natural Gas Pipelines) confirmed that conservative estimates for rate cases (including ANR, Great Lakes, Columbia Gas, and future U.S. pipes) are already embedded in the forecasts, with proposed uplifts reflected. She noted that market pressures haven't materially impacted yet, but industry backlogs are building. TC Energy mitigates this by retaining top-tier suppliers and contractors through long-term relationships and its diverse project portfolio. François Poirier (President and CEO) added that outperformance is sustainable due to decreasing portfolio risk (more straightforward in-corridor projects), predictable timelines, and a conservative approach to cost estimates in inflationary environments. He also mentioned that future outperformance might be directed more towards growth rather than deleveraging, given the strong balance sheet.

Aaron MacNeil asked if anticipated toll increases or rate case outcomes, specifically for the Canadian mainline and U.S. systems like ANR and Great Lakes, are already factored into the 2028 EBITDA guidance or if they represent potential upside. He also inquired about potential challenges or bottlenecks with contractors and other pressure points given the broader investment in energy infrastructure, and the sustainability of TC Energy's capital cost outperformance.

Answer

Tina Faraca, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Natural Gas Pipelines, confirmed that conservative estimates for rate cases, including recent filings for ANR and Great Lakes and the successful Columbia Gas settlement, are already embedded in the company's budgeting and forecasting. Regarding cost savings, Tina noted that while market pressures haven't had a material impact yet, TC Energy is actively monitoring suppliers and contractors. François Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer, added that the decreasing risk of the project portfolio, combined with strong human capital, long-term contractor relationships, and conservative cost estimation in inflationary environments, supports continued execution excellence and outperformance.

Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen asked for an updated perspective on the 2027 EBITDA guidance given recent positive developments and questioned if other Canadian pipelines, like the Mainline, face risks of negative toll revisions similar to the recent Alliance settlement.

Answer

EVP & CFO Sean O’Donnell responded that it is too early to update the 2027 EBITDA guide, as the benefits of higher-return projects sanctioned now will materialize in later years. President & CEO François Poirier and EVP & COO Tina Faraca clarified that the Mainline situation is not comparable to Alliance, citing robust demand, ongoing expansion, and a successful incentive-sharing mechanism they aim to continue post-2026.

Aaron MacNeil asked about the role a potential sell-down of TC Energy's Mexico assets might play in maintaining its $6-7 billion net capital expenditure guidance. He also inquired about the specific regulatory obstacles that need to be overcome for LNG Canada Phase 2 and other Canadian LNG projects to advance following the recent election.

Answer

CEO Francois Poirier stated that a Mexico asset sale is viewed as portfolio optimization rather than a deleveraging tool and the company will be patient to achieve fair value, likely in 2026. CFO Sean O'Donnell added that partnerships are an increasingly preferred lever to fund growth. Regarding Canadian LNG, Francois Poirier emphasized the need for political will and regulatory clarity with enforceable timelines. He noted TC Energy's role is to provide a cost estimate for LNG Canada's 2026 FID decision.

Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen asked President and CEO Carey Ford about his stance on performance-based contracts, comfort with current operating regions and business lines, and approach to M&A, comparing them to his predecessor's views. He also questioned the rationale behind moving additional rigs from the U.S. to Canada, addressing concerns about market supply, and sought elaboration on the "unique customer contract structure" mentioned earlier.

Answer

President and CEO Carey Ford affirmed no change in M&A strategy, emphasizing organic growth avenues and a willingness to pursue M&A only if the price is right. He expressed openness to performance-based contracts, noting their increasing prevalence and positive financial returns. Ford confirmed comfort with existing operating regions and business lines, with no plans to add new service lines or expand internationally beyond current attractive Middle East markets. Regarding rig mobilization, he explained it was part of a unique five-rig contract package for a major Canadian customer, ensuring long-term contracts and attractive returns, and reiterated expectations for 100% utilization of super triples in Canada this winter.

Aaron MacNeil of TD Cowen sought to reconcile the announcement of 22 rig upgrades with only a minor increase in the 2025 contracted rig count. He asked about the contract durations for these upgrades, whether any were speculative, and the potential for future customer-funded upgrades.

Answer

CFO Carey Ford clarified that not all 22 upgrades are signed yet but are factored into the capital plan. He explained that many upgrades are smaller and require shorter-term contracts (6-12 months) for payback. Ford also noted that some upgrades apply to already-contracted rigs, increasing the day rate without altering the contract count, while others are covered by upfront customer payments with no term contract. He stated there were no further customer-funded upgrades to disclose at this time.

Aaron MacNeil of RBC Capital Markets inquired about Precision's perspective on performance-based versus day rate contracts in the U.S. and the rationale for prioritizing debt repayment over more aggressive share buybacks.

Answer

CEO Kevin Neveu explained that while Precision prefers an 'a la carte' day rate model, about one-third of its U.S. rigs already operate on performance-based contracts. CFO Carey Ford and CEO Kevin Neveu affirmed the company's commitment to its deleveraging targets, aiming for a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 1.0x to ensure long-term stability and shareholder value, while retaining flexibility to be opportunistic with buybacks within their stated guidelines.

Aaron MacNeil questioned Precision's U.S. outlook, asking about idle but contracted rigs, contract durations, and the ability to backfill activity. He also probed the company's confidence in a second-half gas activity rebound, given producer sentiment that higher prices are needed.

Answer

President and CEO Kevin Neveu acknowledged short-term downside risk and churn in the U.S. oil markets, stating the contract book doesn't provide full coverage in early 2025 but expects organizational changes to gain traction later in the year. Regarding gas, Neveu confirmed producers want higher prices but said ongoing customer discussions in the Haynesville and Marcellus suggest rig counts will remain firm with potential for new opportunities in Q2 and Q3.

Aaron MacNeil noted that margins have exceeded guidance for two consecutive quarters and asked if the Q3 margin guidance is similarly conservative. He also questioned the expected pace of share buybacks relative to the stated target range.

Answer

CFO Carey Ford explained the Q3 guidance aims to be realistic but is cautious due to the dynamic rig mix in Canada and fixed cost variables in the U.S. Regarding buybacks, he stated they are intentionally not prescriptive but that the year-to-date pace, if extrapolated, could place them at the high end of the 25%-35% of free cash flow target, depending on cash generation and share price.

Aaron MacNeil of TD Securities inquired about the 2026 free cash flow outlook, asking for a quantification of the non-recurring challenges from 2025 and the key drivers for future cash generation. He also questioned the sustainability of Australia's high growth rate given recent labor-related margin pressures.

Answer

CFO Jason Veenstra explained that the H1 EBITDA shortfall directly impacted free cash flow but expects a working capital benefit in H2. He projected 2026 sustaining CapEx to normalize to the $180-200M range, supporting a free cash flow target of $130-150M. CEO Joe Lambert added that a 5-10% growth rate in Australia is manageable and that the company has already taken steps to address the skilled trades shortage, which is less pressured at lower growth rates.

Aaron MacNeil asked about the strategy for mobilizing equipment for potential new project wins in Australia, given that utilization there is already high. He questioned whether the company would prefer to transfer more underutilized assets from Canada or acquire new equipment. Additionally, he inquired about any progress on a potential GICS re-categorization and a corporate name change to better reflect the company's diversified business.

Answer

Joseph Lambert, President & CEO, confirmed a preference for transferring underutilized assets from Canada to Australia for high-return, long-term contracts, noting it is more sensible than purchasing new equipment. Jason Veenstra, CFO, added that following their recent filing, the company will formally engage in a GICS review to argue for a re-categorization. He also mentioned that a corporate name change is still being debated to better align with its 60% Australia-generated business.

Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen followed up on the Canadian fleet's utilization target, asking if it was a seasonal or annual goal and if new work was required to achieve it. He also inquired about capital allocation priorities for 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Joseph Lambert stated the Canadian utilization target is for an annual basis starting in 2025, contingent on winning new work for smaller assets or divesting them. CFO Jason Veenstra highlighted that capital allocation priorities include generating free cash flow in H2 2024, managing upcoming convertible debentures, and routinely extending the credit facility.

Aaron MacNeil of TD Cowen asked management to address investor concerns about a 'death by a thousand cuts' narrative challenging Pembina's NGL incumbency and to clarify its capital allocation strategy between growth projects and potential share buybacks.

Answer

President and CEO Scott Burrows countered the narrative by emphasizing Pembina's 'rock solid' fundamentals, its unique position to benefit from WCSB growth catalysts like LNG, and its forward-looking strategy. SVP & COO Jaret Sprott added context on producer announcements, clarifying that value creation is shared and not solely margin erosion for Pembina. On capital allocation, Scott Burrows noted the recent capex increase was for accretive acquisitions and project advancements, offset by cost savings. SVP & CFO Cameron Goldade confirmed that while buybacks are continuously evaluated, near-term free cash flow is modest due to the Cedar LNG project spend.

Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen requested more details on the new Montney contract, including its volumetric size, duration, and customer location. He also asked for clarification on how Pembina defines an 'appropriate risk-adjusted return' for the Alliance Pipeline.

Answer

SVP Jaret Sprott described the contract as being with a major Northeast BC customer, covering both existing and new material volumes across pipelines, fractionation, and marketing, reinforcing the need for system expansions. CFO Cameron Goldade added that the renewal portion alone represents nearly 10% of the Peace contract structure. Regarding Alliance, Goldade suggested that since no-risk utility pipelines earn mid-teens ROEs, Alliance should earn a premium to that, given the operating risk it assumes.

Aaron MacNeil asked about the Greenlight project's status on securing gas turbine slots and other long-lead items, as well as the progress of the FEED process. He also inquired about dock capacity for exporting incremental NGL volumes.

Answer

Executive Stu Taylor noted that partner Kineticor has expertise and has progressed the AESO queue position, with an FID expected in 2026 for a 2030 in-service date. Executive Chris Scherman commented that while incremental NGL barrels support West Coast export positions, there is nothing specific linked to the Yellowhead project yet, though Pembina remains bullish on West Coast exports.

Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen asked for insights on potential strategic changes under the interim leadership and for a ranking of capital allocation priorities given the strong free cash flow generation.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Preet Dhindsa stated that the focus remains on moving the business forward prudently, emphasizing cost savings, optimizing the global footprint, and improving free cash flow. Regarding capital allocation, Dhindsa prioritized direct shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks), disciplined growth capital for the U.S. compression fleet, and continued debt reduction to strengthen the balance sheet ahead of refinancing efforts. He highlighted the strong economics and multiyear contracts supporting U.S. fleet growth.

Aaron MacNeil of TD Cowen asked about Enerflex's capital allocation strategy, questioning why a more prescriptive plan hasn't been implemented now that the company has reached the low end of its debt target range. He also inquired about the processing opportunity pipeline, given the backlog's current focus on compression.

Answer

President and CEO Marc Rossiter and SVP and CFO Preet Dhindsa responded. Dhindsa explained that while at the low end of their 1.5x to 2.0x leverage range, it is prudent to delever further to optimize the debt stack and maintain flexibility amid market uncertainties like potential tariffs. Dhindsa confirmed that disciplined growth CapEx, share buybacks, and dividend increases remain options. Rossiter clarified that the Q4 bookings' focus on compression was due to the 'lumpiness' of larger processing projects and does not signal a deprioritization of that business.

Aaron MacNeil inquired about the Kurdistan (EH Cryo) project, inherited from Exterran, asking how it differs from other international cryogenic projects and what to expect from the product line going forward. He also asked about the potential range of outcomes and financial impacts following the force majeure declaration.

Answer

President and CEO Marc Rossiter clarified that unlike the Kurdistan project, none of the eight new cryogenic facility orders booked since 2023 involve construction risk outside of Enerflex's manufacturing facilities. Regarding outcomes, Rossiter emphasized that personnel safety is paramount and work will not resume until the security situation is deemed appropriate. SVP and CFO Preet Dhindsa detailed the financial exposure, noting the Q1 P&L loss of $41 million, the estimated $105 million cost to complete (which is not currently being spent), and the $147 million net receivable on the balance sheet for work completed.

Aaron MacNeil sought more detail on the magnitude of the deferred bookings and asked how R&D spending might trend into 2025, given the reduction in capital expenditures.

Answer

CEO Randall MacEwen characterized the deferred orders as three significant and material opportunities that have been pushed into the second half of the year, without quantifying them. Regarding spending, MacEwen stated that given the market adoption pushout, the company is scrutinizing all investments and expects to see some reduction in R&D spending in 2025.

Aaron MacNeil of TD Cowen asked for more detail on the magnitude of the booking deferrals and how R&D spending might trend into 2025, given the reduction in capital spending.

Answer

CEO Randall MacEwen characterized the deferred orders as three significant and material opportunities that have been pushed into the second half of the year, without quantifying their value. He also indicated that given the market adoption pushout, the company is scrutinizing all investments and expects to see some reduction in R&D spending in 2025.