Adam Bubes

Adam Bubes, VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs, followed up on WM's impressive Q4 2025 margins, questioning if the exit rate implies better than 30 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 and how much of the Q4 expansion was one-off, such as outsized RIN sales. He also asked for an update on landfill gas voluntary offtake discussions, the confidence level in absorbing 50% of production in voluntary markets, and the progress of those discussions.

Answer

CFO David Reed and CEO Jim Fish affirmed that Q4 2025 margin expansion was largely due to sustained initiatives and disciplined cost management, not one-offs, and highlighted a 250 basis point delta between 2026 core price (5.6%) and forecasted cost inflation, making the 30 basis points margin guidance reasonable even with wildfire headwinds. Chief Sustainability Officer Tara Hemmer expressed confidence in absorbing 50% of landfill gas production in voluntary markets, noting strong international markets and ongoing utility dialogues, anticipating stability in RIN pricing.

Adam Bubes followed up on the impressive Q4 margin expansion, asking how much was one-off and if it implied better than 30 basis points of margin expansion in 2026. He also asked for an update on landfill gas voluntary offtake discussions, confidence in 50% absorption, and how those discussions are progressing.

Answer

EVP and CFO David Reed stated that most Q4 margin improvements were sustained initiatives. CEO Jim Fish noted a 250 basis point delta between 2026 core price (5.6%) and cost inflation, making 30 basis points margin expansion reasonable given a 20 basis point headwind from fire volume. Chief Sustainability Officer Tara Hemmer expressed confidence in absorbing 50% of RNG production in the voluntary market, citing strong international markets and ongoing dialogue with U.S. utilities.

Adam Bubes asked about Legence's comfort level with leverage on a two to three-year time horizon and the size of the M&A pipeline. He also inquired about the sharp acceleration in data center and technology growth and the embedded growth level in the 2026 outlook.

Answer

Jeff Sprouw, CEO, stated Legence aims to maintain net leverage below 3x, targeting the low two times range, and is comfortable taking it up to the high two range pro forma for Bowers. Stephen Butts, CFO, described the M&A pipeline as active for E&C tuck-ins and opportunistic for I&M, noting a near-term focus on Bowers integration. Jeff Sprouw attributed the data center and technology growth acceleration to multiple projects, ground-up builds, and modular construction. Stephen Butts added that the 30% CAGR for this market is consistent with the 2026 outlook, offset by single-digit growth in other markets.

Adam Bubes inquired about Legence's comfort level with leverage over a two to three-year horizon and the current size and nature of its M&A pipeline. He also asked about the drivers behind the sharp acceleration in data center and technology growth and its embedded level in the 2026 outlook.

Answer

CEO Jeff Sprouw stated Legence aims to maintain net leverage below 3x, targeting the low 2x range long-term, and is comfortable taking it up to the high 2x pro forma for acquisitions like Bowers. CFO Stephen Butts detailed an active M&A pipeline in the fragmented E&C segment for tuck-ins, while I&M opportunities are more opportunistic, with a near-term focus on Bowers integration. Jeff Sprouw attributed data center growth to multiple projects across geographies, including ground-up builds and modular technical cooling systems. Stephen Butts added that the data center and technology market is expected to maintain a 30% CAGR, consistent with historical trends, while other markets grow in the single-digit range.

Adam Bubes asked about the runway for increasing utilization (hours per employee) and productivity, and how EMCOR efficiently allocates resources and labor to sustain the impressive high double-digit growth in its data center business.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Tony Guzzi and Senior VP and CFO Jason Nalbandian discussed driving 3-5% better productivity, growing man-hours at a third to half the rate of revenues, and the impact of project mix and larger project sizes. Mr. Guzzi projected mid-teens to low 20s growth for data centers, citing market forecasts and direct engagement with hyperscaler customers, which reinforces EMCOR's valued position and strong outlook for data center builds over the next five years.

Adam Bubes inquired about EMCOR's runway for increasing utilization and productivity (hours per employee) and the sustainable growth rate for the data center business, including efficient resource allocation.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Tony Guzzi stated expectations to drive productivity by at least 3-5% and for man-hours to grow at one-third to half the rate of revenues. Senior VP and CFO Jason Nalbandian noted that revenue has grown roughly three times faster than headcount over five years, aided by productivity tools and prefabrication. Tony Guzzi projected mid-teens to low-20s annual growth for the data center business, blending cloud storage and AI forecasts, and highlighted strong customer relationships with major hyperscalers sharing their capital spending plans, reinforcing a positive outlook.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs inquired about the drivers behind EMCOR's outsized data center growth compared to the broader market and asked if the increasing mix of data center revenue could lead to further margin expansion.

Answer

CEO Tony Guzzi attributed the strong data center growth to EMCOR's broad market presence, strong customer relationships, and innovation in construction methods. However, both Guzzi and CFO Jason Nalbandian cautioned that margin expansion is not guaranteed. They emphasized that contract mix (e.g., GMP vs. fixed-price) is a significant variable that impacts profitability and can change by customer and project, making it difficult to generalize margins by sector.

Adam Bubes from Goldman Sachs asked what is driving EMCOR's outsized growth in the data center market and whether the increasing percentage of data center revenue could lead to further overall margin expansion.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Tony Guzzi attributed the strong data center growth to their broad market presence, innovation in construction methods (BIM, prefabrication), and strong customer relationships. Regarding margins, Guzzi cautioned that contract mix (GMP vs. fixed-price) is a major variable that can change quarter-to-quarter and site-by-site. CFO Jason Nalbandian reinforced this, stating that margins are earned on a job-by-job basis and that the high data center growth this year has not led them to guide to higher full-year margins than last year, due to these other factors.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs inquired about the source of future data center growth, asking if it would come from new or existing markets and whether it would be organic or through M&A. He also asked which project types are driving margin tailwinds and how data center margins compare to the portfolio average. Finally, he questioned if the typical seasonal margin step-up from Q1 to Q2 should be expected.

Answer

CEO Tony Guzzi projected that future data center growth would be balanced between new and existing markets and has been almost entirely organic to date. He clarified that margin strength is due to broad-based execution improvements and a mix shift toward construction segments, not specific project types. Guzzi advised against focusing on quarter-to-quarter seasonality, urging investors to look at a 3-to-5 quarter trend to understand true margin performance due to the high number of moving parts in the business.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs asked for a breakdown of the organic growth guidance, the company's ability to grow its employee count, and the specific drivers behind the strong Q4 margin performance.

Answer

CFO Jason Nalbandian projected that EMCOR will continue to grow 100-200 basis points above the non-residential construction market. Tony Guzzi, Chairman, President and CEO, explained that headcount grows slower than revenue due to productivity gains from prefabrication and planning, noting that EMCOR is a 'destination employer' for skilled labor. Regarding Q4 margins, Nalbandian stated there were no anomalies, attributing the outperformance to strong project execution, particularly in the Electrical segment. Guzzi added that at current levels, the focus is on growing absolute margin dollars, even if it means a slight dip in margin percentage.

Asked about the medium-term growth outlook for the Fuel Station Services business, the status of the JV project with Republic Services (RSG), and the current returns on new landfill gas projects given D3 RIN prices, as well as the balance between reinvestment and free cash flow.

Answer

The company expects a strong second half for Fuel Station Services, in line with guidance. The RSG project is in the final development stages and contributes to confidence in meeting the 2025 construction start target. New project investments are evaluated based on pragmatic, risk-adjusted return expectations for RINs, with a focus on balancing growth with overall portfolio stability.

Adam Bubes asked about the normalized medium-term growth outlook for the Fuel Station Services business, the status of the JV landfill gas project with RSG, and how the company is balancing new project investments against current D3 RIN prices and free cash flow generation.

Answer

Co-CEO Adam Comora noted a pickup in Fuel Station Services construction is expected in the second half of the year, supporting full-year guidance. He confirmed the RSG project is in final development stages and contributes to confidence in meeting construction start targets. CFO Kazi Hasan added that investment decisions are based on a pragmatic, risk-adjusted RIN price outlook and a strategy to balance the portfolio with uncorrelated downstream assets to ensure stability.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs requested a breakdown of the drivers for the 30-50% EBITDA growth outlook in Fuel Station Services, details on the $2.60 D3 RIN price assumption for 2025, and an update on the timing for the Burlington and Waste Management landfill gas projects.

Answer

Co-CEO Adam Comora explained that the Fuel Station Services growth is driven by a combination of constructing third-party stations, service contracts, and dispensing volumes, with both revenue and margin improvements. He stated the $2.60 RIN price is a blend of forward sales executed in late 2024/early 2025 and the current market view. Co-CEO Jonathan Maurer provided project timelines, with Atlantic on track for Q3 2025, Cottonwood and Burlington for H1 2026, and Kirby for H2 2026.

Asked about the pipeline for more 100%-owned projects like Kirby, the comparative economics of smaller vs. larger projects, the drivers behind the strong Q3 fuel station margins, and the development of the 2025 forward D3 RIN market.

Answer

The Kirby project is the second with partner WM. They have a mix of ownership structures (100%, 50-50 JVs) depending on the partner's goals. While larger projects have better economies of scale, they are pleased to make the economics work on smaller projects like Kirby. The strong fuel station margin was driven by improvements across the board: construction, services, and especially higher throughput of RNG in their dispensing network. For 2025 RINs, they have seen some trading activity begin in the last month around the $3 level and have sold some of their own production at that price, expecting prices to strengthen around that mark.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs inquired about the pipeline for 100% equity projects and how their economics compare to larger joint ventures. He also asked for the drivers of the strong sequential margin growth in the Fuel Station Services segment and for an update on the 2025 forward D3 RIN market.

Answer

Co-CEO Jonathan Maurer explained that while larger projects offer better economies of scale, OPAL is successfully making the economics work on smaller, 100%-owned projects like Kirby. Co-CEO Adam Comora attributed the strong Fuel Station Services margins to improvements across construction, services, and higher RNG throughput. Regarding the 2025 RIN market, management noted that trading has begun, with prices converging around $3.00, and OPAL has already sold some 2025 RINs at that level.

Adam Bubes from Goldman Sachs asked for an update on AECOM's AI and automation initiatives, their timeline for impacting margins, and the reason for the implied sequential margin decline in the Q4 guidance.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Troy Rudd stated that AI is already impacting results and is expected to have a material, favorable impact over the next three years, extending employee capabilities. Chief Financial & Operations Officer Gaurav Kapoor explained the implied Q4 margin step-down is due to planned increases in business development expenses to capitalize on a record pipeline, reflecting a balanced approach to long-term growth.

Adam Bubes asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the 130 basis point margin expansion in the Americas and requested context on the margin differential between the advisory and program management business versus the core design business.

Answer

CFO Gaurav Kapoor attributed the Americas margin strength to four factors: multi-year organic investments in program management and advisory, improved pricing rigor, benefits from global capability centers, and the full-year impact of prior restructuring. CEO Troy Rudd added that program management margins are similar to design, while advisory margins are 'higher,' without providing specific figures.

Adam Bubes asked for an update on the growth outlook for the program management business, the drivers of strong Americas revenue, and the key factors influencing segment margins for the balance of the year.

Answer

CEO Troy Rudd confirmed the program management business continues to grow at a double-digit rate, now representing 16% of NSR, and is on track toward a long-term goal of having advisory and program management be 50% of the business. CFO Gaurav Kapoor explained that the 40 basis point margin expansion was achieved despite significant organic investments and FX headwinds, driven by strong performance in both the Americas and International segments. Rudd added that digital and AI investments are expected to drive efficiencies beyond the previously guided 5-15%.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs asked for clarification on the Mid-Atlantic issues, seeking to know if it was slower synergy realization or new costs. He also requested details on recent acquisitions and the margin outlook for the second half of the year.

Answer

President Edmond Coletta confirmed the issue is slower-than-expected synergy realization, not incremental costs, and detailed three Q2 acquisitions in the Western and Mid-Atlantic regions. EVP & CFO Bradford Helgeson stated that while landfill recovery is a tailwind, the reaffirmed EBITDA guidance on higher revenue implies softer H2 margins due to the pace of synergy execution in the Mid-Atlantic. Chairman & CEO John Casella highlighted that delayed truck deliveries were a key factor.

Adam Bubes asked for clarification on the Mid-Atlantic margin headwinds, seeking to know if they were due to slower synergy realization or incremental costs. He also requested details on recent acquisitions and the outlook for margin expansion in the second half of the year.

Answer

President Edmond Coletta and CEO John Casella confirmed the Mid-Atlantic issue is slower-than-expected synergy realization, not new costs, primarily due to truck delivery delays. Coletta described recent acquisitions as strategic tuck-ins in their Western and Mid-Atlantic regions. CFO Bradford Helgeson noted that while landfill recovery is a tailwind, the reaffirmed EBITDA guidance against higher revenue implies softer H2 margins due to the pace of Mid-Atlantic integration.

Adam Bubes of BofA Securities inquired about the drivers of the positive landfill volume in Q1, the company's remaining annual landfill capacity for further internalization, and the operational status of the Juniper Ridge landfill gas plant.

Answer

Executive Ned Coletta explained that the landfill volume rebound was driven by recapturing C&D tons in New York and new transportation lanes for internalization. He noted the company has about 30% excess capacity, mainly in New York, with the McKean site serving as a long-term defensive asset. Coletta added that the Juniper RNG project is online but at low production levels, while other partner projects are progressing and expected to come online later in the year.

Adam Bubes of Wolfe Research inquired about the drivers of the positive landfill volume in Q1, the potential for further recovery, the company's current excess landfill capacity for internalization, and the status of the Juniper Ridge and other landfill gas plant projects.

Answer

Ned Coletta, an executive, explained that the landfill volume rebound was driven by recapturing construction and demolition tons, new transportation lanes for internalization, and a new strategic sales organization. He stated that Casella has approximately 30% excess landfill capacity, mainly in New York, with the McKean site serving as a long-term defensive asset. Coletta also noted the Juniper Ridge RNG plant is online but at low production levels, while three other partner-led projects are progressing and expected to come online starting in late 2025.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs inquired about the runway for collection fleet automation following recent acquisitions and the potential margin opportunity. He also asked about the economics of the landfill internalization strategy and the key growth drivers and cross-selling opportunities for the national accounts business.

Answer

COO Sean Steves stated there is a multi-year pipeline of several hundred automation opportunities, primarily in the Mid-Atlantic region. President Ned Coletta added that this directly addresses higher direct labor costs in acquired markets. Regarding internalization, Coletta explained that directing tons to landfills with excess capacity yields high incremental margins of 50-75%. CEO John Casella highlighted the significant opportunity to grow the national accounts business by targeting the dense industrial and distribution center market in the Mid-Atlantic.

Adam Bubes asked for more details on the two discrete insurance expense accruals, the potential for outsized margin expansion in 2025 as headwinds reverse, and whether the company might pause its M&A activity to focus on integrating recent large acquisitions.

Answer

President Ned Coletta explained the insurance accruals related to a significant employee injury and a separate third-party legal matter, noting they were unusual events. CFO Bradford Helgeson stated that while it's early, 2025 is expected to see above-trend margin expansion as 2024 headwinds abate. Both Coletta and CEO John Casella confirmed that while integration is the top priority, the company will not fully pause M&A and will continue to pursue opportunistic tuck-in deals.

Adam Bubes, on behalf of Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs, asked about the drivers behind the expected acceleration in underlying margin expansion in the second half of the year and requested details on the mix and margin profile of recent and upcoming acquisitions.

Answer

CFO Mary Whitney attributed the accelerating margin expansion to the continued benefits from improved employee retention and easier year-over-year comparisons in Q4. CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt described the upcoming $100-200 million M&A pipeline as traditional solid waste with a typical 25% EBITDA margin profile, while the recently closed deals had a slightly higher margin due to an accretive E&P acquisition.

Adam Bubes, on behalf of Goldman Sachs, asked for an update on the progress of landfill gas investments and their expected contribution in 2024 and 2025, as well as the outlook for growth CapEx and free cash flow conversion next year.

Answer

Executive Ronald Mittelstaedt reported that four smaller RNG facilities will be online in 2024 with a de minimis impact, and larger projects will contribute more significantly in 2026 and 2027, creating a future inflection point for free cash flow conversion. CFO Mary Anne Whitney added that for 2025, normalized free cash flow conversion is expected to be similar to the current range, with potential RNG benefits offset by commodity headwinds.

Adam Bubes of Goldman Sachs inquired about the Utilities segment growth outlook for the remainder of the year and the company's ability to shift resources between end markets.

Answer

CFO Ken Dodgen noted that strong demand is driving Utilities revenue growth beyond their margin-focused strategy, with increasing opportunities in transmission work. Chairman and Interim CEO David King affirmed Primoris's ability to move resources, citing the shift of personnel from pipeline services to renewables and data center projects, and stated they are not seeing any project slowdowns.

Adam Bubes asked for an explanation of the significant sequential margin improvement in the Utilities segment beyond normal seasonality and inquired about the puts and takes for 2025 margin expansion. He also asked about the expected organic growth cadence for Utilities.

Answer

CFO Ken Dodgen attributed most of the sequential margin improvement to seasonality, but highlighted a roughly $5 million one-time benefit from storm work. For 2025, he indicated that while specific numbers are not yet finalized, the company expects continued sequential margin improvement in the Utilities segment. Dodgen projected mid-single-digit revenue growth for Utilities, led by power delivery and communications.

Adam Bubes, on behalf of Jerry Revich at Goldman Sachs, asked how the current charge-for-oil initiative compares to past cycles and about the competitive response. He also requested details on the drivers behind the expected acceleration in ES organic growth.

Answer

Co-CEO Mike Battles stated the company was very aggressive with its CFO pricing and believes the industry has followed, noting collection gallons remained high. EVP & CFO Eric Dugas detailed the ES growth drivers, including pricing, volume, new Field Service branches, and stronger Industrial Services turnarounds in the second half, all supported by the Kimball ramp-up.

Speaking on behalf of Jerry Revich, Adam Bubes asked how the current charge-for-oil (CFO) in the Safety-Kleen segment compares to past cycles and questioned the specific drivers behind the expected acceleration in Environmental Services organic growth.

Answer

Co-CEO Mike Battles stated the company was very aggressive on CFO pricing and believes the industry has followed, leading to strong collection volumes and increased confidence in the segment's guidance. EVP and CFO Eric Dugas detailed the ES growth drivers, noting that Q2 momentum will offset tough ER comps, while Q3 will benefit from stronger industrial turnarounds, all underpinned by pricing, the Kimball ramp-up, and new technologies.

Adam Bubes, on behalf of Goldman Sachs, asked about customer retention trends in Industrial and Field Services given the focus on pricing, and whether the SKSS segment is now fully caught up on its pricing actions relative to the base oil market.

Answer

Co-CEO Eric Gerstenberg responded that customer attrition has been minimal, with the company proactively walking away from only a handful of clients who wouldn't accept new pricing. Co-CEO Mike Battles added there has been no real change in customer churn. Regarding SKSS, Battles explained that the company is a price taker on base oil and the guidance assumes prices remain relatively flat. An executive added that the company will remain dynamic with its used motor oil collection pricing to counteract any further deterioration in base oil prices.

Speaking for Jerry Revich, Adam Bubes asked about internal inflation trends, particularly for labor, and the company's pricing strategy for incineration and landfill services. He also inquired about the key drivers and offsets for Environmental Services (ES) margin expansion heading into 2025.

Answer

CFO Eric Dugas reported that labor inflation is tracking at 3-4%, serving as a good proxy for overall cost pressures. Co-CEO Eric Gerstenberg affirmed their commitment to a disciplined pricing program, citing a recent 6% increase in incineration pricing. Gerstenberg and Co-CEO Michael Battles stated the long-term goal for ES margins remains 30%, driven by pricing, cost initiatives, efficiencies from the new Kimball facility, and high operating leverage from record containerized waste volumes.

Adam Bubes, on for Jerry Revich, inquired about the size and growth of the Program Management service line and asked to quantify the margin benefit from engaging with clients in the early, advisory phases of projects.

Answer

Chair and CEO Bob Pragada described Program Management as a high-growth, cross-cutting capability that drives growth across all end markets. CFO Venk Nathamuni added that early-stage advisory work provides higher margins than the corporate average, though the exact amount varies by project, and it enhances visibility and scope across a project's lifetime.

Adam Bubes, on for Jerry Revich, asked about the drivers of potential market share gains, the availability of vertically integrated M&A targets, and the near-term outlook for margin expansion in 2025.

Answer

CEO Kyle Larkin attributed market share gains, particularly in the West, to strong execution and the company's focused home market strategy, which has improved bid hit rates. He confirmed that the M&A pipeline for vertically integrated assets is the healthiest it has been, supporting the goal of 1-2 deals per year. For 2025, Larkin anticipates a margin uplift of at least 1% from the Construction segment and expects overall 2025 EBITDA margin to approach the low end of the 12-14% target range for 2027.

Adam Bubes of Craig-Hallum Capital Group inquired about the specific indicators driving confidence in a Telematics Service Provider (TSP) market recovery, the broader timeline for a return to overall revenue growth, the company's strategic options for addressing its 2025 convertible notes, and the growth trajectory of higher-ARPU solutions.

Answer

Interim CEO Jason Cohenour explained that confidence in the TSP market recovery stems from rising order volumes, improved internal forecasts, and positive anecdotal feedback from customers, though he anticipates a gradual rebound. He also pointed to growth catalysts like the new Vision 2.1 dash cam and the international connected car business, which secured key endorsements from Toyota and Jaguar Land Rover. CFO Jikun Kim added that the strategy for the 2025 convertible notes remains focused on improving operational performance to create refinancing and repayment options.

Adam Bubes of Guggenheim Securities inquired about the specific signals driving confidence in a TSP market recovery, the strategic options for addressing the 2025 convertible note, and the growth trajectory of new, higher-ARPU solutions.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Jason Cohenour explained that confidence in the TSP market recovery stems from increased order volumes and more favorable customer commentary, though he anticipates a gradual rebound. He also highlighted growth from the new Vision 2.1 dash cam and the international connected car business, which is expanding in Europe and has secured key endorsements from Toyota and Jaguar Land Rover. CFO Jikun Kim reiterated that the strategy for the 2025 convertible note is to improve operational performance—growing the business and generating cash—to create more favorable refinancing and repayment options.

Adam Bubes of Northland Capital Markets inquired about the specific indicators driving confidence in a TSP market recovery, the broader timeline for a return to overall revenue growth, the company's strategy for addressing its 2025 convertible notes, and the growth trajectory of newer, higher-ARPU solutions.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Jason Cohenour explained that increased order volumes and favorable customer commentary signal a stabilizing TSP market, though he anticipates a slow recovery. He also highlighted growth catalysts in higher-ARPU solutions like the Vision 2.1 dash cam and the international connected car business, which has seen success with Toyota and Jaguar Land Rover. CFO Jikun Kim stated that the strategy for the 2025 convertible notes remains focused on improving operational performance to create opportunities for refinancing or repayment.