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Chairman & CEO Ric Campo expressed confidence in the 2026 forecast, provided the economy remains stable. He emphasized that the key drivers are factual: supply deliveries will be down approximately 50% from their 2024 peak while demand remains strong. He argued that once this temporary oversupply is absorbed, the setup for the Sunbelt markets is "really good."

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President and CFO Alex Jessett reaffirmed the previous guidance, stating, "there is no change to our full year assumptions nor any changes to the cadence of how we get there." He reiterated the expectation that new lease growth should turn positive sometime in the third quarter.

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Chairman and CEO Richard Campo described the D.C. transaction market as strong, with cap rates in the mid-to-high 4% range. Executive Vice Chairman D. Keith Oden added that while there is talk of government downsizing, the push for federal employees to return to the office could actually boost demand in D.C. proper. To underscore this, President and CFO Alexander Jessett noted that D.C. Metro has shown the highest year-to-date increase in signed new lease rates across the portfolio.

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Chairman and CEO Richard Campo explained that capital allocation is driven by maximizing cash flow growth relative to the company's cost of capital. While development continues with over $300 million started this year, he expects to be more active on the acquisition front in 2025 and 2026 as more deal flow emerges. He also highlighted share repurchases as a compelling option, noting that at the current stock price, Camden can buy back its own portfolio at an attractive implied 6% cap rate, which is difficult to find in the private market.

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SEVP & CFO Christopher Lau explained that with 18,000 homes recently freed from securitizations, there is a multi-year disposition opportunity of potentially 10-15% of those assets, providing capital for recycling. CEO & Trustee Bryan Smith clarified that the lease expiration initiative is just beginning, with plans to extend it to new leases, community-level optimization, and more granular timing.

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CEO Bryan Smith explained that the focus is on balancing occupancy and rate growth, aiming for a flatter occupancy curve this year compared to last. He noted that resident demographics between BTR and scattered-site homes have been remarkably consistent, with similar age and household profiles, though BTR may attract slightly higher incomes due to newer product.

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CEO Bryan Smith attributed Midwest strength to the high quality of AMH's single-family detached assets, migration trends, and a lack of comparable supply. He characterized 2025 rent growth expectations as similar to pre-COVID levels, but noted the key difference is a higher normalized occupancy expectation in the 96% range versus the previous 95% area, driven by platform improvements. CFO Chris Lau added that potential upside to the guide could come from improvements in bad debt and capturing upswings in the leasing season, similar to 2024.

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COO Bryan Smith used Phoenix as an example, noting that AMH's detached BTR product has occupancy over 96%, outperforming the scattered-site portfolio there, despite Phoenix being a high-supply market. He highlighted that most new supply is attached product, unlike AMH's. CFO Chris Lau stated that historical bad debt ran between 70-90 basis points. He noted that while it ticked up seasonally in Q3, it was sub-1% in the first half of the year and the path to normalization in 2025 depends on the processing speeds of local court systems.

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President John McLaren clarified that the company is not pursuing any greenfield development but is evaluating a handful of accretive expansion projects in highly occupied US communities. EVP & CFO Fernando Castro-Caratini confirmed there is a 'small opportunity' for future ground lease repurchases, with just over 10 UK properties still subject to them.

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COO Sean Breslin attributed D.C. softness to a combination of resident uncertainty, rising concessions, and weak job growth. Regarding policy, he noted any NYC rent stabilization changes would affect about 2,100 units and not be immediate. CIO Matthew Birenbaum explained that California's CEQA reform should reduce development costs and timelines but won't fundamentally alter the supply-constrained outlook.

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CEO Benjamin Schall stated that the consensus job growth forecast they use has moderated to around 1 million net new jobs for the year, down from previous expectations. COO Sean Breslin disclosed that renewal offers for May and June are in the low-to-mid 5% range, with a typical 100 to 150 basis point spread between the initial offer and the final signed rate.

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COO Sean Breslin reported a minor uptick of about 60 leases from displaced residents but noted most are seeking single-family homes. He confirmed that potential eviction moratoriums are not factored into guidance as the situation is still developing. CEO Benjamin Schall and COO Sean Breslin clarified that the job growth chart was not for the overall economy but specifically for the professional services and information sectors in their Southeast regions, which are expected to rebound.

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COO Sean Breslin explained the reacceleration is driven by higher asking rents (up ~3% YoY) compared to softer comps from late 2023, which will primarily boost new move-in rent change. He projected blended rent change to rise from 1.2% in October to the high 1% range in November and mid-2% in December. Regarding bad debt, Breslin stated that while it's improving, he does not expect it to fully normalize in 2025, suggesting 2026 is a more likely timeframe.

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SVP & COO Michael Lacy stated that while historical Q3/Q4 blends would be 3.5-4%, the current forecast is for blends around 2%, with Q3 slightly better than a seasonally weaker Q4. Regarding the Sunbelt, he noted that recovery varies by market; Tampa is showing positive momentum, while Austin is improving but still negative, and Dallas has a ways to go before new lease growth turns positive. He declined to give a specific 2026 outlook.

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COO Mike Lacy described D.C. as strong, with 4.9% revenue growth in Q1, occupancy over 97.7%, and blended lease rates accelerating from 3.5% in Q1 to 4% in April. He confirmed that return-to-office is helping drive this performance. CFO Joe Fisher added supporting data, noting that public transit ridership is up double-digits and that a recent spike in jobless claims has since normalized back to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting the negative trend has passed.

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CFO Joe Fisher indicated that while they are 'getting close' to new development starts, they are not quite there yet, with 2025 being a more likely timeframe. He confirmed that the redevelopment program is a core, ongoing business activity, with around $75 million being spent in 2024 and a similar amount planned for 2025. The highest priorities for new capital remain DPE program recycling, JV acquisitions, and OP unit transactions.

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EVP & CFO Jonathan Olsen declined to revise the informal guidance at this time. He reiterated that while the resilient renewal business is a positive, the company is not yet in a position to formally change its outlook and will have more information by the next earnings call.

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CFO Jonathan Olsen stated that they were not revising guidance at this time. He reiterated that resilient renewal growth, which is three-quarters of the business, provides a strong foundation. While feeling comfortable with their position relative to the guide, he indicated they would have more clarity and a better opportunity to provide updates after the peak leasing season concludes.

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President Charles Young confirmed that new BTR deliveries are down substantially, as previously forecasted, especially in key markets like Phoenix, Texas, and Central Florida. He noted that the company is absorbing the existing supply effectively, with these markets showing positive new lease rate growth. The forward-looking pipeline for new competitive deliveries appears significantly reduced.

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CEO Dallas Tanner explained that the impact varies by market but noted that listings from top SFR operators are up 15-20% in markets like Phoenix and Tampa. He stated that while they are fighting for new occupants on the new lease side, there is little to no impact on the renewal side of the business, with renewal rates remaining at historically normal levels. Tanner expressed bullishness, expecting new BTR deliveries to drop significantly next year, which should alleviate the pressure.

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EVP Timothy Argo stated that absorption has been very strong, in line with their expectations, and is anticipated to strengthen further. He projected that the year-over-year drop in new supply deliveries will accelerate in the second half, contributing to an expected full-year decline of about 25% for 2025 versus 2024.

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EVP & COO Tim Argo stated that concessions are broadly stable at half a month to a month, slightly down from a year ago. CEO Brad Hill addressed capital allocation, explaining that with leverage at a low 4x, debt is the most attractive source of incremental capital. He added that proceeds from property dispositions will also be used to fund external growth.

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Tim Argo, EVP and Chief Strategy Officer, explained that the guidance assumes macroeconomic conditions will be consistent with 2024, including approximately 600,000 new jobs across their markets and continued low resident turnover. He then provided the January 2025 metrics: new lease rates were -7.1%, renewal rates were +4.6%, resulting in a blended rate of -0.9%.

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Brad Hill, EVP and President, stated that MAA finds one-off, new-build acquisitions more appealing than portfolios, which often have mixed quality and more aggressive pricing. He noted their current strategy yields superior returns. Tim Argo, EVP and COO, responded that net delinquency is currently around 40 basis points, which is very close to the pre-COVID level of 30-40 basis points, indicating a full recovery.

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President & CEO Angela Kleiman explained that Q2's in-line performance was a mix of underperformance in Los Angeles (around 1.3% blend vs. >2% expected) offset by stronger renewals elsewhere. She emphasized focusing on total revenue maximization over any single metric. EVP & Chief Investment Officer Rylan Burns ranked capital allocation priorities as: 1) fee-simple acquisitions, followed by selective development and disciplined investment in the finance book.

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Executive Angela Kleiman advised against over-analyzing the small sequential change, reiterating it's a function of the Q1 beat against unchanged guidance. To raise guidance, she said they would need more clarity on the impact of public policy changes, such as tariffs, which could affect operating expenses. She also cited the opacity of official job data as a reason for the current cautious stance.

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Executive Angela Kleiman confirmed they have not seen any material increase in leasing activity from the wildfires, as victims are likely awaiting insurance clarity. Executive Barb Pak detailed the expense forecast, stating the largest factor is a 2% decrease in insurance costs. This is offset by higher real estate taxes, particularly in Seattle, and elevated utility costs, leading to a 4.5% growth in non-controllable expenses and under 3% for controllable expenses.

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Executive Barb Pak reported that Essex spent $10 million on advocacy in Q3, with the year-to-date total reaching $16 million. She confirmed that the full-year guidance assumes a total of just over $30 million for these expenses, which are primarily related to opposing Propositions 33 and 34.

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President & CEO Mark Parrell noted it's early, but they are seeing a positive impact from AI job creation in tech hubs like San Francisco. Regarding capital allocation, he stated that acquisitions remain a goal but are currently priced too high. Buybacks funded by asset sales are an option, balanced against descaling the company. Development is also being selectively considered. EVP & CIO Alexander Brackenridge added that investing in the existing portfolio through renovations is also a priority.

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CEO Mark Parrell stated they have no special insight into the D.C. return-to-office cycle, noting only a 'handful' of transfers and anecdotal street activity. He explained that development looks more appealing relative to acquisition cap rates below 5%. The strategy would be to selectively develop 2-3 assets to deliver into a supply-constrained environment in a few years, despite near-term uncertainty.

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CEO Mark Parrell explained their optimism is based on third-party economic forecasts (Moody's), their own operating dashboards, and signs of a bottoming in tech-related job corrections. He noted that national data for information and professional services jobs began improving in late 2024, which bodes well for tech-heavy markets like San Francisco and Seattle.

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