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    Adam Samuelson

    Vice President in Equity Research at The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

    Adam Samuelson is a Vice President in Equity Research at Goldman Sachs, specializing in agribusiness and packaging sectors with coverage spanning Consumer Defensive, Basic Materials, and Consumer Cyclical industries. He covers companies such as Cal-Maine Foods, Ranpak Holdings, LSB Industries, and Darling Ingredients, having issued over 300 price targets and ratings. Samuelson began his analyst career in the late 2000s, with experience at Jefferies and notable analyst roles before joining Goldman Sachs, where he has maintained a price target met ratio near 68% and has generated an average potential upside of 25% on covered stocks. He holds professional securities credentials and is registered with FINRA.

    Adam Samuelson's questions to Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) leadership

    Adam Samuelson's questions to Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Adam Samuelson asked for more context on the updated gross margin outlook, the magnitude of cost pressures from production curtailments, and the phasing of earnings. He also sought clarification on the fiscal 2026 cost savings target and the components of the 2026 capital expenditure forecast.

    Answer

    CFO Bernadette Madarieta attributed margin pressure to fixed cost deleveraging from temporarily idled lines and unfavorable product mix. For fiscal 2026, she clarified the $85 million savings is a total annualized figure, representing an incremental $30 million over fiscal 2025. She projected fiscal 2026 CapEx to include D&A of around $400 million, plus $150 million for environmental projects, with potential additional spend to restart the ERP project.

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    Adam Samuelson's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership

    Adam Samuelson's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Adam Samuelson asked about the competitive environment in U.S. Spices & Seasonings, noting that while McCormick is outpacing private label, smaller brands are growing rapidly. He also inquired about full-year cash flow, asking if working capital would be a source or use of cash.

    Answer

    President and CEO Brendan Foley responded that the company competes well against all forms of competitors, including smaller brands and private label, which is not a new dynamic. He highlighted that McCormick is capturing healthy category growth, growing unit and volume share, and gaining total distribution points. On cash flow, EVP and CFO Mike Smith stated that while working capital was a use year-to-date, partly due to contingency planning for the port strike, they still expect a strong cash flow year, with Q4 being the strongest quarter.

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    Adam Samuelson's questions to HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/ (HRL) leadership

    Adam Samuelson's questions to HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/ (HRL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs asked for the financial dimension of savings from the 'transform and modernize' initiatives realized year-to-date and expected in Q4. He also requested a breakdown of the Q4 sales guidance between volume and price/mix by segment.

    Answer

    CEO James Snee and CFO Jacinth Smiley deferred providing specific financial figures for the 'transform and modernize' savings until the Q4 call but confirmed that benefits are contributing to margin expansion. For the Q4 outlook, Snee provided a segment breakdown: Retail is expected to be down mid-single digits, Foodservice up mid-single digits, and International up low-single digits, leading to an overall low-single-digit decline for the company while emphasizing the health of the core business.

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    Adam Samuelson's questions to Nutrien (NTR) leadership

    Adam Samuelson's questions to Nutrien (NTR) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Adam Samuelson asked why Nutrien's potash guidance increase wasn't larger given the 1 million tonne increase in the global shipment forecast. He also inquired about the North American summer fill program and demand outlook amid lower crop prices.

    Answer

    Mark Thompson, incoming CFO, explained the conservative guidance is primarily due to the priced-in risk of a Canadian rail strike. He confirmed that absent a strike, guidance would align with their typical market share of the higher global forecast. He added that the North American summer fill program was very strong due to depleted channel inventories, and the company is effectively sold out through Q3.

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    Adam Samuelson's questions to BERY leadership

    Adam Samuelson's questions to BERY leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Asked to quantify the price/cost carryover into 2025, whether 2025 EBITDA growth could exceed long-term targets, and the reason for the lower tax rate.

    Answer

    The company quantified a ~$20 million headwind from polymer price lag in fiscal 2024 that could become a tailwind, plus an incremental $35 million benefit from cost reduction programs in fiscal 2025. They are optimistic about delivering meaningful EBITDA growth in 2025. The lower tax rate was attributed to consistent outperformance by their tax department.

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    Adam Samuelson's questions to BERY leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Asked about the intended use of the $1 billion cash from the spin-off, whether Q1 volume was impacted by destocking more than expected, and if the confidence in H2 earnings growth is driven more by volume recovery or by price/cost and cost savings.

    Answer

    The $1 billion in proceeds will primarily be used for debt repayment, though the company will remain active with its existing share repurchase authorization. Q1 volumes were in line with expectations, including some anticipated destocking. Confidence in the second half is driven by multiple factors: ongoing cost reductions, pricing actions, and volume improvements against easier comparisons.

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    Adam Samuelson's questions to PTVE leadership

    Adam Samuelson's questions to PTVE leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked for more details on the drivers of the expected back-half volume growth and for an update on the progress and financial impact timeline of the separate footprint optimization plan.

    Answer

    The company expects low single-digit volume growth in the back half, driven by promotional activity in QSR and a slight improvement in food and beverage merchandising towards Q4. Regarding the footprint optimization, the associated expenses are mostly weighted to the second half of 2024, with the financial benefits not expected to be recognized until 2025. Approximately $15-20 million in CapEx is budgeted for the initiative this year.

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    Adam Samuelson's questions to PTVE leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Sought clarification on the quarterly EBITDA cadence, specifically asking if the guided factors imply a Q2 EBITDA of around $200 million. He also asked about the cash flow timing for the beverage merchandising restructuring and the newer footprint optimization program, and whether there was potential for a working capital cash release this year.

    Answer

    The CFO confirmed the analyst's math on Q2 EBITDA was 'generally on the right track' based on the guidance for second-half improvement. He stated the beverage merchandising restructuring cash charges are now largely complete, while the footprint optimization program is just beginning, with $15-20 million in cash charges expected in 2024. Management does expect to get cash benefits from working capital for the full year, which is factored into their free cash flow guidance.

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