Agnieszka Vilela

Agnieszka Vilela inquired about Autoliv's current market share in the industry and its progress with Chinese OEMs while maintaining its position with Western OEMs. She also asked about the calculation method for the $30 million raw material headwind assumed for 2026, specifically if it uses spot or contract prices and if it's net of customer compensations.

Answer

President and CEO Mikael Bratt confirmed Autoliv maintained a 44% global market share in 2025, driven by strong growth with Chinese OEMs and in India. Mikael Bratt and CFO Fredrik Westin explained the raw material headwind calculation is a mix of long-term agreements, quarterly/annual contract updates, and index forecasts, with prices locked in late November. Fredrik Westin clarified that the $30 million is a gross impact on costs, not a net impact on the P&L.

Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea asked about Autoliv's current global market share and its ability to maintain its position with Western OEMs while growing with Chinese OEMs. She also sought details on the calculation of the $30 million raw material headwind for 2026, specifically regarding pricing methods and whether it's a gross or net figure.

Answer

President and CEO Mikael Bratt confirmed Autoliv maintained a 44% global market share in 2025, attributing this to strong growth with Chinese OEMs and a dominant 60% market share in India. EVP of Finance and CFO Fredrik Westin clarified that the $30 million raw material headwind is a gross impact on costs, derived from a mix of long-term agreements and index forecasts locked in late November, with gold being the largest contributor.

Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea Bank questioned the pace of share buybacks, noting it was below the run-rate for the annual $300-500M ambition, and asked about the expected currency impact in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Mikael Bratt reaffirmed the full-year buyback commitment, explaining the slower H1 pace was a matter of prudence amid market volatility. CFO Fredrik Westin detailed the currency effects in Q2 and stated that for the full year, the guidance assumes a net zero currency translation effect on sales.

Agnieszka Vilela asked about the impact of production pull-forwards in Q1 and whether it led to inventory stocking by OEMs. She also sought clarity on how tariff compensations are reflected in the P&L.

Answer

CFO Fredrik Westin explained it's difficult to quantify any pull-ahead effect but noted that strong call-offs continue into Q2, suggesting the effect was either small or is ongoing. He clarified that the majority of tariff compensations are filtered through sales, but the magnitude in Q1 was not large enough to have a meaningful effect on the top line.

Agnieszka Vilela asked about the impact of production pull-forwards in Q1 and whether OEMs were also stocking up on Autoliv's products. She also inquired how tariff compensations are reflected in the company's P&L statement.

Answer

CFO Fredrik Westin explained that quantifying a pull-forward effect is 'incredibly difficult,' but noted that strong call-offs continuing into Q2 suggest the effect was either small or is ongoing. He clarified that the majority of tariff compensation flows through sales, although the amount in Q1 was not material enough to significantly impact the top line.

Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea asked for the reason behind the marginal market share decline to 44% in 2024 and the outlook for 2025. She also sought clarity on the expected magnitude of the sequential operating margin decline in Q1 2025, given historical precedents and the weaker production forecast.

Answer

CEO Mikael Bratt explained the slight market share dip was primarily due to the rapid growth of BYD, which produces safety systems in-house and is therefore not included in the market share calculation, though Autoliv does supply them with components. He considers the share stable at around 45%. CFO Fredrik Westin addressed the Q1 margin, noting that while he wouldn't give specific guidance, the projected 14% sequential LVP decline is double the average of recent years, which will have a significant impact, potentially resulting in a margin drop not dissimilar to prior years.

Agnieszka Vilela sought clarification on the nature of the supplier settlement and asked about the drivers behind Autoliv's strong outperformance in Europe and its potential sustainability.

Answer

CFO Fredrik Westin reiterated that he could not comment on the specifics of the legal case behind the supplier settlement. He attributed the strong European outperformance to significant recent product launches and successful cost compensation negotiations. CEO Mikael Bratt added that the European outlook is challenging but stable at current expectations.