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    Alain Gabriel • Morgan Stanley

    Alain Gabriel's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership

    Alain Gabriel's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Alain Gabriel asked for a breakdown of the EBITDA drivers for Q3 2025, including tariff impacts in North America and the operational issues in Mexico. He also inquired about the strategy to mitigate tariff risks on imported slabs for the Calvert facility.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Genuino Christino explained that the operational issue in Mexico would have a continued ~$40 million cost impact in Q3. Head of IR Daniel Fairclough detailed the Q3 outlook, citing normal seasonal volume declines in Europe, North American tariff costs being offset by the Calvert consolidation, and lower mining volumes. Regarding Calvert, Mr. Christino noted that the new EAF and a domestic slab supply agreement are key mitigants, and that much of the tariff impact was already reflected in Q2 results.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Alain Gabriel of Morgan Stanley inquired about the key drivers for ArcelorMittal's Q3 2025 EBITDA, including seasonal effects, tariff impacts, and the operational situation in Mexico. He also asked about the strategy to mitigate tariff risks for imported slabs at the Calvert facility.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Genuino Christino explained that while a furnace in Mexico remains down for maintenance, the key flat business EAF is operational. He noted the incremental tariff impact is manageable and highlighted Calvert's strong performance and new domestic slab supply agreement. Head of IR Daniel Fairclough detailed the Q3 EBITDA bridge, pointing to seasonal volume dips in Europe, the net positive effect of the Calvert consolidation in North America, and lower mining volumes.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley inquired about the Q2 2025 EBITDA forecast, seeking a breakdown by division and clarity on the timing of benefits from lower metallurgical coal prices. He also asked about the applicability of new auto component tariff exemptions to steel in North America and how the company absorbs these tariff costs.

    Answer

    Group CFO Genuino Christino confirmed a stronger Q2 outlook, driven by recovering spreads in Europe, noting some high-cost coal is still being worked through. Executive Daniel Fairclough added that key drivers would be higher seasonal volumes in Brazil and Ukraine, a positive price-cost effect in Europe, and improved results in the India JV. Regarding North American tariffs, Christino reiterated the expectation of a largely neutral impact when combining the NAFTA segment with the Calvert JV and stated their understanding is that there is no tariff stacking on auto parts.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Alain Gabriel asked about the future of ArcelorMittal's share buyback program after the current one completes and whether the company would consider stretching its balance sheet to capitalize on its discounted share price.

    Answer

    CEO Aditya Mittal highlighted the company's significant capital returns, including a 37% share count reduction since 2020 and a 10% dividend increase. He affirmed that the company is very comfortable with its existing capital return policy, which allocates 50% of free cash flow (after the base dividend) to shareholder returns, and intends to stick with this framework rather than stretching the balance sheet.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Alain Gabriel inquired about ArcelorMittal's Q3 business outlook for its Europe and U.S. divisions, noting recent peer profit warnings in Europe and price increases in the U.S. He also asked for an update on the expected closing timeline and potential synergies from the Vallourec acquisition.

    Answer

    Group CFO Genuino Christino stated that for Europe, the company sees normal seasonality in Q3 and does not anticipate the same level of destocking seen in 2023. An unnamed executive added that Q3 would see lower spot prices in NAFTA and seasonally lower volumes in Europe, offset by lower raw material costs. Regarding Vallourec, Mr. Christino expects the deal to close in Q3, after which the company will explore potential win-win synergies.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) leadership

    Alain Gabriel's questions to Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) leadership • H1 2025

    Question

    Alain Gabriel of Morgan Stanley asked if Rio Tinto sees an opportunity to simplify its portfolio by divesting non-material businesses and what the outgoing CEO wished he had more time to accomplish.

    Answer

    CEO Jakob Stausholm responded that while the company continuously evaluates its portfolio, the key question is who is the best owner, not just asset size, noting most assets are profitable. Reflecting on his tenure, he stated his main wish was to have accomplished the company's strategic objectives faster, acknowledging that transformations in a large company take time to crystallize.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) leadership • H1 2025

    Question

    Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley asked about the potential for simplifying the portfolio by divesting non-material businesses and posed a personal question to the outgoing CEO about his remaining 'bucket list' items.

    Answer

    CEO Jakob Stausholm responded that while simplification is always a goal, decisions are based on being the best owner and creating NPV, not just asset size, noting the portfolio has no major loss-making assets. On his legacy, he expressed satisfaction in leaving a wealth of strategic options for his successor.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (ERELY) leadership

    Alain Gabriel's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (ERELY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley requested an update on the gold deposit, asking about its potential size, CapEx budget, and project timeline. He also asked for the key drivers (price, cost, volume) behind the Q2 EBITDA forecast.

    Answer

    Executive Idil Onay stated that studies on the gold mine are ongoing and an announcement will follow the release of the official UMREK report, noting that 2025 CapEx could increase from ~$850M to $1B if reserves are significant. For Q2, she projected EBITDA would be very similar to Q1, with a slight potential increase in prices.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (ERELY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alain Gabriel of Morgan Stanley asked for an update on the gold deposit project, including its potential size and CapEx budget, and requested a breakdown of the key drivers for the Q2 EBITDA forecast.

    Answer

    Executive Idil Onay stated that studies on the gold mine are ongoing with no new updates, but confirmed that the 2025 CapEx guidance of $800-$850 million could increase to $1 billion if reserves prove significant. She provided no specific timeline for the project's assessment. For Q2, Onay projected EBITDA would be very similar to Q1, with a potential slight increase in prices being offset by other factors.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (ERELY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Alain Gabriel of Morgan Stanley questioned the company's flexibility to delay or defer its 2025 capital expenditures if market conditions worsen and asked about the effectiveness of existing anti-dumping tariffs in Turkey and any potential new measures.

    Answer

    Idil Onay (Executive) confirmed that while Erdemir has the flexibility to delay investments, there is currently no reason to do so. Regarding tariffs, she explained that while they have prevented prices from falling further, their effectiveness is limited by the inward processing regime, which allows importers to avoid taxes if the material is re-exported. She noted the Trade Ministry is working on revising this regime, which is expected to benefit local producers.

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    Alain Gabriel's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (ERELY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley asked about Erdemir's flexibility to defer or delay its 2025 capital expenditures if the market environment deteriorates and questioned the effectiveness of existing anti-dumping tariffs in Turkey against cheaper imports.

    Answer

    Executive Idil Onay responded that while the company maintains the flexibility to adjust its investment timeline, there is currently no reason to delay the planned 2025 CapEx. Regarding tariffs, she explained that they have prevented prices from falling further but their full effect is limited by the inward processing regime, which allows importers to avoid duties. Onay noted that the Turkish Trade Ministry is actively working on revising this regime.

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