Alejandro Vigil

Alejandro Vigil asked about Eni's upstream business outlook, specifically the potential production increase from the PETRONAS joint venture and the company's view on the situation in Kazakhstan.

Answer

CEO Claudio Descalzi stated that the PETRONAS joint venture, expected to finalize by Q2, will contribute to production for six months, starting at 300,000 bbl/day and targeting 500,000 bbl/day. COO Guido Brusco added that production growth will be driven by recent startups and that Eni is defending against arbitration claims in Kazakhstan, expecting no resolution before 2027-2028.

Alejandro Vigil asked about the outlook for Eni's upstream business, specifically the potential production increase from the joint venture with PETRONAS, and sought an update on the situation in Kazakhstan.

Answer

Claudio Descalzi (CEO, Eni) and Guido Brusco (Chief Operating Officer of Global Natural Resources and General Manager, Eni) explained that the PETRONAS JV, expected to finalize by Q2, will contribute to production, starting at 300,000 barrels per day and aiming for 500,000 barrels per day. For Kazakhstan, they noted a long history of discussions and ongoing arbitration claims regarding production, costs, and environmental matters, with a resolution not expected before 2027-2028, but expressed confidence in compliance.

Alejandro Vigil from Santander asked for details on the Atea Energia acquisition opportunity. He also questioned if Namibia could become another potential upstream satellite for Eni, especially in light of Galp's activities there.

Answer

Stefano Goberti, CEO of Plenitude, detailed the binding offer for Atea Energia, which aligns with Plenitude's strategy by adding 1.4 million clients, primarily in power. Guido Brusco, COO of Global Natural Resources, stated that Namibia is a clear example of their satellite model's regional expansion but confirmed Eni is not interested in the Galp process and is focused on its own discovered resources.

Alejandro Vigil of Santander inquired about the 1.7 million barrels per day production guidance, specifically the potential risks from Kazakhstan and OPEC+ quotas, and asked for an outlook on Enilive's margin evolution.

Answer

Guido Brusco, an Eni executive, confirmed the production outlook is supported by five major start-ups and noted no engagement from Kazakh authorities on production cuts. Stefano Ballista, another executive, addressed Enilive, explaining that while the market is currently oversupplied, demand for biofuels and SAF is expected to increase in the second half, leading to margin improvement. He stressed Eni's focus on value over volume.

Alejandro Vigil inquired about the potential for selling a stake in Plenitude, similar to the Enilive deal, and asked about the expected returns on investments in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

Answer

Executive Claudio Descalzi noted that while a Plenitude stake sale is not planned for the second half of 2024, there is significant investor interest and 'room' for a deal to fund its growth. Regarding CCS, he explained that Eni's model of using existing depleted reservoirs is not highly capital-intensive, with the main expense being the operating cost of capture. Executive Guido Brusco added that the required capital would likely be sourced via project financing.

Alejandro Vigil from Santander asked about Eni's Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) strategy, specifically requesting the expected timing for the first Final Investment Decision (FID) and the potential size of the investment.

Answer

Guido Brusco, Head of Natural Resources, detailed the CCS pipeline, stating the Ravenna Phase 1 project will start in Q2 2024. The UK HyNet project targets a cluster FID by year-end 2024, while the larger Ravenna Phase 2 targets an FID in 2025. The gross investment for the transport and storage segment of these two key projects is estimated at €1.7-€1.8 billion, with both aiming for injection before 2030.

Alejandro Vigil asked for TotalEnergies' views on CO2 regulation in Europe, particularly the ETS system, given its upcoming role as a major power generator after the EPH acquisition. He also inquired about the impact of consolidation in oil services and drilling on potential inflation in upstream investment costs.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanné stated that TotalEnergies fundamentally supports a price on CO2 for transition, and that the ETS system, while facing debate, is generally functioning well. President, Gas, Renewables & Power Stéphane Michel added that the integrated power business, including CCGTs and renewables, benefits from higher CO2 prices. Regarding consolidation in oil services, Pouyanné expressed a preference for competition, noting that while some service companies attempt integration, TotalEnergies has not seen significant value in it as a customer. He observed a stabilization in the service market, linked to oil prices, and highlighted the company's strategy of using more integrated contracts where beneficial.

Alejandro Vigil (Banco Santander, S.A.) sought TotalEnergies' views on CO2 regulation in Europe, particularly with its expanded generation capacity post-EPH acquisition, and asked about the potential for cost inflation in upstream investments due to consolidation in oil services and drilling.

Answer

Stéphane Michel, President, Gas, Renewables & Power, TotalEnergies, expressed satisfaction with the current ETS1 market, noting that higher CO2 prices benefit integrated power and are crucial for transition, while acknowledging the need to balance industry demand. Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, voiced concerns about consolidation limiting competition in oil services but observed a stabilization in the service market, emphasizing the value of integrated contracts.

Alejandro Vigil inquired about the medium-term outlook for the downstream business and asked for commentary on the apparent weakness in the marketing segment during the first quarter.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pouyanné and CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire addressed the downstream outlook by acknowledging that European refining and petrochemicals are under pressure, leading to strategic decisions like the announced shutdown of a cracker in Antwerp. For the marketing segment, Sbraire explained that the Q1 performance was not weakness but expected seasonality, as people drive less in the winter. He noted the results were in line with Q1 of the prior year and that the division remains a very resilient cash flow contributor over the full year.

Alejandro Vigil from Santander asked about BP's priorities for the remaining divestments until the end of 2027, inquiring about target sectors and the potential for farm-downs of recent discoveries.

Answer

Carol Howle, Interim Chief Executive Officer, stated that BP is looking across the entire portfolio (upstream, downstream, low-carbon) for assets where others see more value. She mentioned the Gelsenkirchen refinery, Austria retail, and Lightsource bp as currently under process, and potential farm-downs like Paleogene, emphasizing value for BP and shareholders. Kate Thomson, Chief Financial Officer, added that BP has plenty of choice and is not in a rush, making value-based decisions.

Alejandro Vigil from Santander inquired about BP's priorities for the remaining $15 billion divestment program until the end of 2027, asking which assets or sectors (downstream, farm-downs of discoveries) are being considered for sale.

Answer

Carol Howle, Interim CEO, stated that BP is reviewing the entire portfolio (upstream, downstream, low-carbon) for assets where others might see more value. She mentioned ongoing processes for the Gelsenkirchen refinery, Austria retail, and interested parties for Lightsource bp, adding that farm-downs on discoveries like Paleogene will be considered based on value for BP. Kate Thomson, Chief Financial Officer, noted a deep hopper of quality assets and no rush to transact.

Alejandro Vigil from Santander asked for the company's expectation for net debt by the end of the year.

Answer

CFO Kate Thomson detailed several factors influencing net debt, including a significant working capital build in H1, a scheduled Deepwater Horizon payment, and a $1.2 billion hybrid bond redemption. She anticipates a working capital reversal of $1.5 to $2.0 billion in the second half of the year and expects net debt to trend slightly downward by year-end, assuming a flat price environment.

Alejandro Vigil from Santander asked for BP's expectations regarding its net debt level by the end of the year.

Answer

CFO Kate Thomson provided a detailed outlook, stating that after a significant working capital build in the first half, she expects a reversal of $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion in the second half. Factoring in stable operations, flat prices, and a $1.2 billion hybrid bond redemption, she anticipates that net debt will continue to trend slightly downward toward the end of the year.

Alejandro Vigil of Banco Santander, S.A. asked for an explanation of the moving parts behind the significant year-on-year EBITDA increase projected for 2025 and the gap versus consensus estimates.

Answer

CFO Katherine Thomson explained that adjusting 2024's EBITDA for 2023 prices and factoring in the Whiting refinery's recovery and underlying growth gets them just under the $46-49B target. CEO Murray Auchincloss added that the 2025 improvement comes from the absence of the Whiting outage and 3-4% underlying growth from cost savings and improved business performance.

Alejandro Vigil asked if the Orsted investment could lead to joint project developments and whether project delays and offshore wind uncertainty might result in higher shareholder distributions next year.

Answer

Executive Torgrim Reitan stated there are no current plans for joint projects with Orsted. He affirmed a strong outlook for capital distribution, reiterating the commitment for $8 billion to $10 billion next year, comprising a growing dividend and a share buyback of $4 billion to $6 billion.

Alejandro Vigil of Santander Bank asked about the timing of the Peregrino divestment and whether production from the Bacalhau project would offset the divested volumes. He also inquired about further growth opportunities in U.S. onshore gas and potential downstream investments to capitalize on the AI boom.

Answer

EVP & CFO Torgrim Reitan confirmed the Peregrino divestment is expected to close by year-end, representing a strategic high-grading of the portfolio to focus on the Bacalhau and Raya developments. He noted Bacalhau is progressing well and will be a significant production contributor. On U.S. gas, Reitan highlighted the success of recent Marcellus acquisitions and the company's positive long-term view on natural gas, particularly given AI-driven energy demand, but stated there are no concrete plans for downstream gas-fired power plants at this time.

Alejandro Vigil of Santander asked about the timing of the Peregrino divestment and whether production from the Bacalhau project would offset the lost volumes. He also inquired about further growth opportunities in U.S. Onshore gas, including potential downstream investments.

Answer

EVP & CFO Torgrim Reitan stated the Peregrino deal is expected to close by year-end, allowing a focus on the Bacalhau and Raya developments. He confirmed Bacalhau is progressing well and will be a significant contributor. Regarding U.S. gas, he noted the Marcellus acquisitions are performing well and are well-positioned for AI-driven energy demand, adding that while there are no concrete plans for gas-fired power plants, the company is watching the space.