Alessandro Pozzi

Alessandro Pozzi asked for an outlook on Q1 2026, including main moving parts, and color on expected tender levels in the Middle East and deepwater for 2026.

Answer

Paolo Rocca, Chairman and CEO, highlighted the significant impact of tariffs (current quarterly payments of $150 million) and ongoing efforts to reduce imports through increased U.S. production and potential tariff negotiations. Gabriel Podskubka, COO, described the Middle East business as stable, with Saudi drilling activity bottoming out and potential rebound in 2026, alongside ongoing CCS pipeline deliveries. Other GCC producers are increasing capacity, and Qatar is preparing for a new LNG campaign. He also noted a strong offshore backlog for 2026 with new projects expected. Alessandro Pozzi also inquired about Q3 sales in North America, suggesting market share gains despite lower U.S. rig counts. Paolo Rocca indicated that Tenaris's large operator clients are gaining market share due to resilience. Guillermo Moreno, President of U.S. Operations, confirmed a slight market share increase, explaining that increased drilling productivity offsets some of the rig count impact on OCTG demand. Alessandro Pozzi followed up on OCTG consumption intensity. Guillermo Moreno estimated it to be 2-3% higher than a year ago, with about half of a 5% rig count reduction offset by productivity gains.

Alessandro Pozzi inquired about the outlook for Q1 2026, including potential changes in tariff levels and the expected level of tenders in the Middle East and deepwater for 2026. He also asked for elaboration on market share gains in North America despite lower rig counts and an update on OCTG consumption intensity.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Paolo Rocca highlighted that the Q1 2026 outlook would be significantly influenced by ongoing negotiations to reduce U.S. tariffs on steel bars, alongside Tenaris's own efforts to increase domestic production. COO Gabriel Podskubka described the Middle East business as stable, with Saudi drilling activity stabilizing and other GCC producers increasing capacity. He noted a strong offshore backlog building for 2026. President of U.S. Operations Guillermo Moreno explained that Tenaris's market share increased due to the resilience of its large operator clients, who are more efficient, and that OCTG consumption intensity per rig is up 2-3% year-over-year due to increased productivity and lateral length.

Alessandro Pozzi questioned the margin outlook for Q3 and Q4 2025, asking if price increases could offset the significant impact from higher tariffs, and also inquired about the sales outlook for South America and the reasons for flat rig activity in Argentina.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Paolo Rocca acknowledged the potential $140-150 million quarterly tariff impact but noted it would be gradual. He expects U.S. prices will eventually rise to compensate. For Q3, he guided for margins slightly below Q2 but within the 20-25% range. Regarding Argentina, he attributed flat activity to divestitures in the south and a cautious investment pace in Vaca Muerta due to financing constraints.

Alessandro Pozzi inquired about the potential for a slowdown in U.S. activity and rig count expectations due to lower oil prices, asked for details on potential cost-saving initiatives, and questioned the outlook for Q3 2025.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Paolo Rocca acknowledged that if oil prices remain around or below $60 per barrel, a reduction in oil company CapEx and U.S. drilling activity is likely, with the first effects potentially seen in Q3 2025. However, he stressed there is high uncertainty and expects long-cycle offshore and national oil company projects to remain resilient due to their long-term horizons and the strong financial standing of the operators.

Alessandro Pozzi inquired about the outlook for sales and margins in Q1 and the first half of 2025, linking it to the day's share price reaction. He also asked about the future of the share buyback program and whether capital might be allocated towards potential acquisitions in the U.S. given the geopolitical outlook.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Paolo Rocca stated that Q1 2025 margins are expected to be in line with Q4 2024, balancing lower volumes to Europe against price increases elsewhere. He anticipates a slight margin improvement in the second half, contingent on U.S. tariff decisions. Regarding the buyback, Mr. Rocca explained the Board will make a decision in April, considering market dynamics, investment opportunities, and the company's strong cash position.

Alessandro Pozzi asked about the U.S. market, questioning if high production with low drilling is a new paradigm and if the updated Pipe Logix index better reflects Tenaris's sales mix. He also inquired about the potential for a new share buyback program.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Paolo Rocca stated that the U.S. drilling slowdown is temporary, not a structural change, with the main issue being high import levels. President of U.S. Operations Luca Zanotti confirmed the new Pipe Logix basket is more reflective of Tenaris's product mix. Regarding the buyback, Rocca indicated the Board will evaluate market conditions and decide on a new program in November.

Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca asked for the next milestones in the Versalis restructuring plan and the outlook for chemicals margins. He also inquired about the market dynamics for biofuels heading into the second half of 2025 and 2026.

Answer

Adriano Alfani, CEO of Versalis, outlined that positive effects from cracker closures will materialize in H2 2025, with significant impact in H2 2026, but noted the chemicals economic recovery remains weak. Stefano Ballista, CEO of Enilive, reported improving biofuel dynamics due to rising demand and supportive new regulations in the EU and U.S., such as Germany's proposed RED3 deployment.

Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca requested more detail on the working capital and cost components of the EUR 2 billion savings initiative. He also asked about the planned investment level and expected production for the Argentina LNG project with YPF.

Answer

Executive Francesco Gattei detailed the EUR 2 billion cash initiative, attributing over EUR 1 billion to CapEx and cost improvements, around EUR 500 million to portfolio enhancements, and the remainder to working capital management. Executive Guido Brusco noted the Argentina LNG phase being assessed would cost around $20 billion in total, with Francesco Gattei adding that this is not yet in the CapEx plan as it's still at the MoU stage.

Alessandro Pozzi asked for details on the upgraded GGP guidance, an update on the restructuring of the loss-making Chemicals division, and the potential to recoup windfall taxes paid in Italy.

Answer

Executive Cristian Signoretto attributed the higher GGP guidance to a sustained trading environment, early contract renegotiations, and a favorable accounting adjustment. Executive Adriano Alfani confirmed the Chemicals transformation plan is proceeding, targeting EBITDA breakeven in 2025. CFO Francesco Gattei stated that while a court ruling was not entirely favorable, Eni will continue to pursue legal action to challenge the windfall tax, especially for its gas trading arm.

Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca asked for color on the significant increase in Enilive's biorefining throughput to over 90%. He also inquired about the effect of growing equity-accounted volumes on the group's tax rate and whether income from these investments would be lumpy.

Answer

Stefano Ballista of Enilive attributed the high utilization rate (~94%) to a lack of planned maintenance and the success of an operational excellence program, guiding for a full-year average of 85-90%. Executive Francesco Gattei clarified that the group's tax rate change was driven by production mix and gas pricing, not associate contributions, and noted that dividend distributions from associates are relatively steady throughout the year.