Alex Barron

Alex Barron with Housing Research Center inquired about Hovnanian Enterprises' strategy regarding incentives and their impact on gross margins and sales pace, asking if the company would consider reducing incentives for higher margins despite potentially slower sales. He also asked about the current split between Quick Move-in (QMI) and to-be-built homes and if a more balanced approach is being considered.

Answer

CEO Ara Hovnanian explained that Hovnanian prioritizes sales pace over price, continuing incentives to efficiently sell through lower-margin land, improve liquidity, and position for new land opportunities. He noted that QMI sales decreased from 79% to 71% of total sales, not due to a conscious strategy, but reflecting increased market demand for to-be-built homes, which offer significantly higher profit margins and require fewer incentives.

Alex Barron, President at Housing Research Center, inquired about Hovnanian Enterprises' strategy regarding incentives and their impact on margins and sales pace. He asked if the company would consider reducing incentives for potentially higher margins, even if it meant a slower sales pace. He also asked about the current percentage split between Quick Move-in (QMI) homes and to-be-built homes, and if the company plans for a more balanced approach.

Answer

Ara Hovnanian, CEO, Chairman, and Director, explained that the company prioritizes sales pace over price, maintaining incentives to sell through lower-margin land, drive liquidity, and prepare for new land opportunities. Regarding home types, Mr. Hovnanian noted that QMI sales decreased from 79% to 71%, not due to a conscious strategy, but due to growing market demand for to-be-built homes, which offer significantly higher profit margins and require fewer incentives.

Alex Barrón from Housing Research Center asked about the current incentive structure, the strategic thinking behind the continued focus on spec (QMI) homes, and for details on the communities and markets involved in the recent impairments.

Answer

Ara Hovnanian, Chairman, President and CEO, clarified that incentives are mixed: mortgage rate buydowns are used for homes delivering within 90 days, while price reductions or option upgrades are offered for others. He confirmed the focus on Quick Move-In (QMI) homes remains a key strategy to enable these affordable buydowns. David Mitrisin, VP and Corporate Controller, specified that the impairment charge was for a single community in Ohio, with the remainder related to lot walkaways during due diligence periods.

Alex Barrón inquired about the current level of incentives compared to previous periods, the effective mortgage rates being offered to buyers, and the current count of finished quick move-in (QMI) homes and its impact on the spec start strategy.

Answer

CFO Brad O'Connor and CEO Ara Hovnanian clarified that incentives were 9.7% in Q1, an increase of 160 basis points year-over-year. Hovnanian explained this translates to advertised mortgage rates between 4.9% and 5.75%, primarily for QMIs. O'Connor reported 319 finished QMIs (2.6 per community), which is higher than desired, and confirmed the company has slowed starts in specific communities to manage this inventory level heading out of the spring selling season.

Alex Barrón inquired about the ongoing nature of the phantom share expense, the reason for the quarterly debt balance reduction, the expected timeline to utilize the remaining deferred tax asset (DTA), and the company's stance on share repurchases.

Answer

CFO Brad O'Connor explained that the phantom stock expense is ongoing, with its impact fluctuating based on stock price, and noted it is less dilutive than issuing shares. He confirmed the Q3 debt reduction resulted from a debt exchange executed in May. Regarding the DTA, O'Connor estimated it would last approximately 2.5 to 3 years at the current earnings run rate. He also confirmed the company is actively repurchasing shares, having spent $11 million in the quarter, and has remaining authorization. CEO Ara Hovnanian added that tax benefits from energy-efficient homes will continue after the DTA is exhausted.

Alex Barron asked about the conditions or factors that would lead Toll Brothers to expand its vertical integration, specifically its manufacturing plants (beyond trusses to other components), beyond its current East Coast footprint to other markets like Texas or Phoenix, where the company has a larger scale.

Answer

Executive Vice President Karl Mistry stated that Toll Brothers likes its current manufacturing business and its footprint, which predominantly serves the Carolinas North and accounts for 20%-30% of nationwide revenue. He explained that the primary limitation for expansion is significant transportation costs, which have kept the footprint fixed for a long time. He indicated no near-term need or desire for expansion.

Alex Barron asked what factors would lead Toll Brothers to expand its manufacturing plants (e.g., trusses) beyond the East Coast to other markets like Texas or Phoenix, considering their current expansive operations.

Answer

Executive Vice President Karl Mistry explained that while Toll Brothers values its vertically integrated manufacturing business, which serves 20%-30% of national revenue primarily in the Carolinas North, significant transportation costs limit expansion. He stated there is no near-term need or desire for expansion beyond the current fixed footprint.

Alex Barrón from Housing Research Center asked about the dynamic of deliveries exceeding orders, which has reduced the backlog, and when the backlog might be expected to bottom out.

Answer

CFO Martin Connor explained that the backlog reduction is a planned outcome of the strategic shift from a 90% build-to-order model to a ~55% spec business. Executive Douglas Yearley noted that the backlog's future trend is market-dependent but observed a recent, slight preference shift back toward build-to-order homes. This could be driven by buyers wanting more customization and willing to wait, potentially for a better interest rate environment, which could help stabilize and grow the backlog over time.

Alex Barrón asked if spec homes are concentrated at lower price points and whether other builders are also reducing spec starts.

Answer

Executive Chairman Douglas Yearley explained that spec homes are built across all price points but do lean slightly towards the more affordable luxury segment. He clarified they are 'pumping the brakes,' not 'stepping on the brakes,' regarding new specs and noted that while he lacks definitive intelligence, he is encouraged by public comments from other builders suggesting similar caution.

Alex Barrón questioned the effectiveness of a modest $12,000 incentive increase, suggesting it was more of an emotional tool for buyers rather than a necessity for affordability.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO Douglas Yearley agreed completely, calling it a 'great question' and confirming the move was 'absolutely' emotional. He explained that for their affluent buyers, the incentive wasn't for qualification but to make them feel they 'got a deal' in a softer market. He pointed to the 30% order growth as proof that the strategy was effective.

Alex Barron asked if the price discounting activity observed in Q4 was primarily a 2025 phenomenon, and if incentives in 2026 have shifted back to primarily rate buydowns and closing costs. He also inquired about the ideal number of specs per community or spec starts for Taylor Morrison's strategy, particularly at the entry level.

Answer

Sheryl Palmer (Chairman and CEO, Taylor Morrison) confirmed that rate buydowns and closing costs would continue to be part of the incentive mix, but incentives are personalized by consumer, with design center credits being more relevant for resort lifestyle buyers. She emphasized careful inventory management in quality assets to protect values. Curt VanHyfte (CFO, Taylor Morrison) explained that the company employs a community-by-community spec management program, with higher spec counts in entry-level/multifamily communities and fewer in move-up/resort lifestyle, based on demand.

Alex Barron asked if the price discounting activity in Q4 2025 was a 2025-specific trend and if 2026 incentives have shifted primarily back to rate buydowns and closing costs.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer responded that rate buydowns and closing costs will continue to be part of the incentive mix, which is personalized by consumer (e.g., design center credits for resort lifestyle buyers). She noted the company's aim to hold the line on pricing, especially for quality assets. Alex Barron also inquired about Taylor Morrison's strategy regarding ideal specs per community or spec starts, particularly at the entry level. CFO Curt VanHyfte explained that the company employs a community-by-community spec management program, with higher spec counts in entry-level/multifamily communities and fewer in move-up/resort lifestyle, based on individual demand.

Alex Barrón asked about the company's philosophy on price cuts and for an update on the growth and outlook for the Esplanade brand.

Answer

Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and CEO, explained that using mortgage incentives is always the first step, with price cuts being a last resort, particularly on to-be-built homes. For specs, pricing is influenced by competitive pressures. Regarding the Esplanade brand, Erik Heuser, Chief Corporate Operations Officer, noted there are about 35 communities open with over 80 in the pipeline. Palmer added that the company expects to nearly double its active adult closings by 2028.

Alex Barrón of Housing Research Center asked for a breakdown of the charges in the 'other income' line and the drivers of the increased 'amenity' line item, including where the build-to-rent asset sales are recorded.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Curt VanHyfte detailed the 'other income' charge, attributing it to a ~$17M legal reserve for the Solivita case, ~$6.5M in pre-acquisition write-offs, and ~$17M in unrealized losses in their captive insurance company. Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser explained that the sale of two Yardley (BTR) assets was recorded in 'amenity revenue' and that a separate charge of nearly $18M related to legacy multifamily assets was recorded in 'amenity and other expense'.

Alex Barrón asked about recent improvements in construction build times and inquired about the percentage of closings that utilized forward commitments versus other financing incentives.

Answer

An executive reported a sequential improvement in build times of about two weeks, with many markets already at pre-pandemic levels. Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer stated that approximately one-third of Q3 closings used forward commitments, a level consistent with recent quarters, while also emphasizing the use of other personalized financing tools for customers.

Alex Barron asked about the high percentage of homes (90%) using a broker, inquiring about the commission structure and any incentive programs. He also sought feedback from realtors on why this percentage is so high, specifically if the 60-day guarantee and faster payment were key factors. Finally, he asked about incentives this quarter versus the previous quarter as a percentage of ASP.

Answer

Executive Chairman Steve Hilton confirmed they pay market-rate commissions, with small incremental loyalty programs for repeat realtors. He attributed the high realtor engagement primarily to their ability to meet customer timelines with the 60-day closing guarantee, ensuring homes are move-in ready, and the transparency of pricing. EVP and CFO Hilla Sferruzza highlighted that 40% of their volume comes from repeat realtor business, underscoring the success of their loyalty program. Hilla Sferruzza stated that Meritage, as a 100% spec builder, does not provide incentive details as a percentage of ASP, but noted that current incentive levels are more than a couple hundred basis points above historical averages, supporting their long-term gross margin target.

Alex Barron asked about the percentage of ASP that incentives comprised in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025.

Answer

EVP and CFO Hilla Sferruzza stated that as a 100% spec builder, they do not provide incentive details as there is no base price. She reiterated that current incentive levels are more than a couple hundred basis points above historical averages, supporting their long-term gross margin target.

Alex Barrón asked how Meritage Homes is competing with other entry-level builders who are aggressively cutting prices and whether Meritage can avoid this by focusing on rate buydowns.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord stated that their approach is community-specific, but the primary tool is using rate buydowns to solve for the customer's monthly payment, which they find more effective than direct price cuts. CFO Hilla Sferruzza added that buydowns are a more cost-efficient way to address affordability. Phillippe Lord emphasized this 'balanced approach' allows them to achieve their sales pace without resorting to broad price cuts.

Alex Barrón asked about the company's operational balance between starts, incentives, and sales pace, specifically what they prioritize when sales fall below their target. He also questioned if they would match aggressive financing incentives from competitors.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord explained that achieving a pace of four or more sales per month is the primary driver. If pace falls short, they adjust incentives to reach that target, and then align housing starts accordingly. He confirmed they would do what is necessary to compete and achieve their pace goal, but believes the broader interest rate environment is a bigger factor than direct competition right now.

Alex Barrón sought to clarify the structure of the Elliott Homes acquisition, specifically regarding the treatment of existing homes under construction and in backlog. He also asked if Meritage plans to continue offering homes at Elliott's very low price points.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord explained that Meritage is only acquiring the land assets; the seller will complete and profit from all existing homes under construction. He expressed enthusiasm for Elliott's affordable price points, which are made possible by lower land costs, and confirmed their intention to continue operating in those submarkets, noting Elliott's strong historical profitability.

Alex Barron asked if M/I Homes provided guidance for Q1 margins and if the Q4 impairments would stabilize margins. He also inquired if incentive levels increased in Q4 compared to Q3 for new orders and about any strategic shift in the percentage of spec homes versus build-to-order.

Answer

CFO Phil Creek stated that M/I Homes does not provide margin guidance but was pleased with Q4 margins (22.6% ex-charges) and efforts to control construction costs and cycle times. He confirmed that margins were down slightly in Q4, indicating increased incentives on closings. CEO Bob Schottenstein indicated that the strategy of 2/3 to 3/4 spec sales and the use of rate buydowns would likely remain unchanged, noting encouragement from early traffic improvements in late Q4 and early 2026.

Alex Barron asked for guidance on next quarter's margins and whether the recent impairments would help stabilize them. He also inquired if incentive levels increased during the quarter and if there was any strategic shift between spec homes and build-to-order.

Answer

Phil Creek (CFO) stated that M/I Homes does not provide margin guidance but confirmed that margins were down, implying increased incentives on Q4 closings. Bob Schottenstein (CEO and President) indicated that the strategy of 2/3 to 3/4 spec sales would likely remain unchanged, with no significant shifts anticipated soon.

Alex Barrón questioned the strategy behind using mortgage rate buydowns versus price reductions and asked if their effectiveness varies between conventional and government-backed (FHA/VA) loans.

Answer

CEO Robert Schottenstein described rate buydowns as the most effective sales tool in the current environment because they protect the integrity of the existing sales backlog, unlike price cuts. He also noted that buydown rates are more favorable for government loans. Executive Phillip Creek added that the company is in the 'payment business,' and buydowns directly address the buyer's primary concern of the monthly payment, making them highly effective.

Alex Barrón asked for the average mortgage rate for buyers in backlog, the value of incentives as a percentage of home price, the reason for the step-up in corporate G&A, and the company's strategy for share repurchases and potential dividends.

Answer

Executive Phillip Creek and CEO Robert Schottenstein explained that providing an average backlog mortgage rate is difficult because rate-lock incentives are typically for homes closing within 60 days, and incentives are customized by community and buyer. Creek attributed the higher SG&A to increased community count, headcount, marketing, and incentive compensation tied to strong returns. Regarding capital allocation, Creek confirmed the company is pleased with its recent share repurchase activity and will continue to evaluate it quarterly, while Schottenstein stated there are no current plans to introduce a dividend.

Alex Barron of Housing Research Center, LLC inquired about the methods used to achieve reductions in construction cycle times and whether further improvements are possible.

Answer

President and CEO Gregory Bennett explained that their 'pace over price' strategy provides trade partners with a reliable commitment of starts, enabling a more efficient assembly-line process. He confirmed that further improvement is expected, with a company-wide goal to reach a 46-day build time.

Alex Barrón of Housing Research Center asked about the composition of sales incentives, specifically whether they were primarily rate buydowns or price cuts, and if the company was increasing broker commissions.

Answer

EVP & CFO Russ Devendorf responded that incentives are a mix but are primarily offered as closing cost support, which includes rate buydowns for buyers. He also confirmed that some price discounting is occurring. Devendorf stated that broker commissions have not been changed and remain at their standard levels without any unusual bonuses.

Alex Barron sought clarity on the key drivers needed to achieve the 2025 closings guidance of 3,000 to 3,250 homes. He asked if this projection relies on a ramp-up in community count, margin adjustments to drive pace, or simply an end to recent buyer hesitancy.

Answer

CFO Russ Devendorf responded that the guidance assumes a status quo market and is supported by the fact that 100% of the required land for 2025 is already under control. He identified the primary risks as macroeconomic factors, particularly job growth, and the operational execution of bringing new communities online, especially in the second half of the year.

Alex Barron of Housing Research Center, LLC asked about LGIH's strategic thinking on the trade-off between maintaining high margins versus lowering them to stimulate sales pace. He also questioned if the company was considering new product types, such as more attached housing or smaller homes, to address affordability.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Eric Lipar clarified that the company is 100% focused on pace, but margins are a necessary byproduct of their capital-intensive land development model. He attributed the slow pace to broad affordability pressures on their entry-level buyers. Lipar confirmed they are 'laser-focused' on affordability, which includes using incentives, offering smaller homes, and evaluating future development of attached products and smaller lots.

Alex Barrón asked how LGI Homes is responding to competitors who are more aggressively cutting prices and what criteria the company uses for its own price adjustments. He also inquired about the specific interest rates being offered to buyers through the company's forward commitment incentive program.

Answer

CEO Eric Lipar responded that LGI Homes is focusing on compelling incentives, particularly mortgage rate buydowns, rather than broad price cuts. He explained that price discounts are used cautiously and are typically reserved for aged inventory due to the large size of their communities. Lipar noted that through these buydowns, qualified buyers are currently securing fixed FHA mortgage rates in the mid-5% range.

Alex Barrón asked if LGI Homes is considering more attached housing products to improve affordability. He also questioned the company's SG&A ratio, which is higher than many peers, and inquired about any plans to issue more fixed-rate debt to replace variable-rate credit lines.

Answer

CEO Eric Lipar confirmed that LGI Homes does build attached products and that they will be part of the community count growth next year. CFO Charles Merdian explained that SG&A is driven by advertising for new communities and that they aim to leverage existing overhead as they expand within current markets. Regarding debt, Eric Lipar stated that issuing fixed-rate debt is always under consideration, contingent on attractive market conditions and a clear use for the capital.

Alex Barron of Housing Research Center, LLC asked about Beazer's current average build time, recent improvements, and any initiatives to reduce it further. He also inquired about the current mix between spec homes and to-be-built orders.

Answer

SVP and CFO David Goldberg and Chairman and CEO Allan Merrill noted that cycle times are a couple of weeks away from pre-COVID levels and that they see an opportunity to gain another 3-5 days or more in fiscal 2026. This improvement is expected from increased trade familiarity with their unique home construction and better labor availability. Goldberg confirmed the spec mix is currently in the high 60% range, which is higher than their historical average.

Alex Barrón congratulated the company on its strategic shifts and asked about the current composition of sales incentives, specifically the use of rate buydowns, and what percentage of homes are now being built to the Zero Energy Ready standard.

Answer

Executive David Goldberg stated that while specific incentive amounts are not disclosed, there has been an increase in buyers opting for rate buydowns. CEO Allan Merrill clarified that effectively all new homes are Zero Energy Ready, with only 30 starts remaining from the prior product series.

Alex Barrón asked for more specifics on the strategy that doubled sales in Houston, inquired about mortgage tools used to sell spec homes, and questioned the company's stance on share buybacks with the stock below book value.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Allan Merrill explained that in Houston, they corrected 'over-spec-ed' homes and shifted incentives to direct price reductions, which improved competitiveness despite a margin impact. He confirmed a full suite of mortgage buydown options are available through their Mortgage Choice program. Executive David Goldberg reiterated that while buybacks are an option, the primary focus for capital allocation remains on land investment to fuel growth.

Alex Barron inquired about the company's current average build time and whether there have been recent improvements or opportunities for further reductions.

Answer

COO and President Tom Mitchell stated that the current average build time is 115 working days, or just under six months. He noted that the company is meeting or slightly beating schedules and is actively implementing new initiatives, templates, and schedules with the goal of improving these cycle times.

Alex Barrón sought more detail on the 'buyer hesitation,' asking if it was tied to the election or interest rates. He also asked if the order pattern would likely repeat last year's trend of a Q4 dip followed by a Q1 jump, and inquired about current build times.

Answer

CEO Douglas Bauer attributed the hesitation to broad consumer anxiety around the election and other geopolitical events, which he believes is creating pent-up demand for a strong spring selling season. CFO Glenn Keeler agreed that a Q4 dip and Q1 jump is a reasonable expectation based on normal seasonality. President & COO Tom Mitchell reported that build times have normalized at a 115-working-day schedule with only slight recent improvement.

Alex Barron of Housing Research Center, LLC asked about the potential for further reducing the four-month construction cycle time and whether the company is using a mix of rate buydowns and price cuts for incentives.

Answer

CEO Robert Francescon stated that cycle times have improved monthly and could get even better, with some homes already being built in the 70-90 day range, but the company is not pursuing vertical integration. CFO J. Scott Dixon confirmed that incentives are a mixture of both rate buydowns and price cuts, with the most aggressive opportunities geared towards slower-moving communities.

Alex Barrón questioned the company's capital allocation strategy, specifically how it balances investing in new land against executing share buybacks, especially given the stock's discount to book value. He also asked about the decision-making process for choosing between rate buydowns and direct price cuts.

Answer

CFO John Dixon outlined the capital allocation priorities as reinvesting in the business while maintaining leverage targets (around 30% debt-to-cap), followed by returning capital to shareholders. He noted the company is on pace to exceed last year's shareholder returns and will be opportunistic with buybacks. CEO Robert Francescon explained that the choice between buydowns and price cuts is a dynamic decision made at the local subdivision level based on market conditions and competitor actions.

Alex Barrón inquired about the integration of Anglia Homes, specifically asking if Century would maintain Anglia's product and strategy or transition it to Century's operating model, and what the expectations were for its sales pace.

Answer

Co-CEO Robert Francescon explained that it will be a phased transition, with Century's more efficient product library being utilized in new communities over time. He noted Anglia's business model was already very similar, focusing on entry-level homes and finished lots. For now, he expects the sales pace to be 'potentially similar' to its historical rate.

Alex Barron of Housing Research Center, LLC asked for an update on home build times and any initiatives to shorten them, such as vertical integration. He also inquired about efforts to drive affordability through smaller lots or floor plans.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Romanowski reported a two-week year-over-year improvement in cycle times but stated there are no plans for vertical integration. Both he and SVP Jessica Hansen confirmed a consistent focus on reducing home size, noting the average square footage has declined and that providing smaller homes on smaller lots is key to affordability.

Alex Barron from Housing Research Center, LLC inquired about current home build times and any specific initiatives to shorten them, such as vertical integration. He also asked about efforts to improve affordability through smaller lot sizes or floor plans.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Romanowski reported a two-week year-over-year improvement in cycle times and stated there are no plans for vertical integration. He confirmed the company is actively pursuing smaller homes on smaller lots to enhance affordability. SVP Jessica Hansen added that average square footage has declined by a high single-digit percentage over the last five years.

Alex Barrón of Housing Research Center asked if D.R. Horton's approach to balancing margin versus pace has changed, given some competitors' aggressive tactics. He also inquired about the timing of Forestar's lot sales.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Romanowski reiterated that balancing pace and margin is a community-by-community decision made by local operators to be competitive and maximize returns, not a top-down mandate. Executive Jessica Hansen explained that Forestar's lower lot deliveries in Q1 were purely a timing issue after a heavy Q4, and they are expected to increase through the remainder of the year.

Requested specific statistics on starts and spec levels, an explanation for the recent margin compression, and clarification on the outlook for purchase accounting adjustments in 2025.

Answer

The company described a strategic shift from a high-spec strategy a year ago to a 50/50 spec and build-to-order model, without providing hard numbers. Margin pressure was attributed to increased incentives needed to clear elevated industry-wide spec inventory at the end of the year. Purchase accounting adjustments are expected to continue at a similar level in 2025.

Alex Barrón from the Housing Research Center, LLC questioned the primary constraints to faster growth, pointing to the significant year-over-year increase in lots under contract versus the more modest growth in delivery guidance. He also asked for the typical range of timeframes for developing lots from acquisition to completion across different markets.

Answer

CEO Anthony Oxley explained that the main constraint is the long and complex process of entitlement, approval, and development, noting that the results of increased investment in fiscal 2024 will materialize in late 2025 and 2026. COO Mark Walker added that development timeframes can range from 6 to 24 months, varying significantly based on project-specific conditions and government jurisdictions.