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    Alex Sturnieks • Lake Street Capital Markets

    Alex Sturnieks is an Equity Research Associate at Lake Street Capital Markets, specializing in institutional equity research with a focus on high-growth sectors. He covers companies including Potbelly, participating in earnings calls and conducting analysis on topics such as digital transformation and operational strategy, while contributing to the firm’s broader research output. With approximately 8 years of professional experience, Sturnieks has served in various associate roles and has been with Lake Street Capital Markets since June 2023, after previous research roles and completing a BBA at the University of Minnesota Duluth. He holds relevant securities licenses and registrations as verified by FINRA, supporting his analytical credentials in the investment banking industry.

    Alex Sturnieks's questions to American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) leadership

    Alex Sturnieks's questions to American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Alex Sturnieks of Lake Street Capital Markets inquired about the $8-10 million demand pull-forward into Q4, early Q1 consumer spending trends, the drivers of outperformance in the traditional channel, and the company's current M&A appetite.

    Answer

    EVP, CFO, and Treasurer Andy Fulmer explained the demand pull-forward was driven by retailers buying key brands like Bubba and Caldwell ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases. President & CEO Brian Murphy added that underlying point-of-sale (POS) trends remain strong in Q1. Murphy also noted the traditional channel's strength is partly due to its effectiveness in launching new products. Regarding M&A, Murphy confirmed a strong appetite, citing a clean balance sheet and an increase in potential tuck-in acquisition opportunities at attractive prices.

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    Alex Sturnieks's questions to American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    The analyst asked for more details on the Q4 demand pull-forward, early Q1 consumer spending trends, the reasons for strong performance in the traditional sales channel, and the company's current stance on M&A and capital allocation.

    Answer

    The company explained the $8-10M pull-forward was due to retailers buying key brand inventory (Bubba, Caldwell, Bog) before anticipated price increases. They noted that underlying point-of-sale (POS) trends remain strong in Q1 despite the pull-forward, indicating healthy consumer demand. The strength in the traditional channel was attributed to its effectiveness in launching new products compared to e-commerce. Regarding M&A, the company is actively looking at tuck-in acquisitions at attractive prices, noting an increase in direct conversations with potential targets struggling with supply chain and innovation.

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    Alex Sturnieks's questions to American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Alex Sturnieks inquired about the purchasing timeline for retailers, factors providing confidence in the long-term sales outlook, the performance of the Shooting Sports category, and the company's capital allocation philosophy regarding organic investment, buybacks, and M&A.

    Answer

    CEO Brian Murphy explained that strong performance of in-line products and excitement for new innovations are prompting retailers to request product load-ins approximately six months earlier than usual. He noted that while the personal protection side of Shooting Sports was soft, strategic expansion into shotgun sports drove overall growth in the category. CFO H. Fulmer reiterated the capital allocation priorities as organic growth, M&A, and opportunistic share buybacks. Murphy added that while the M&A search is aggressive, they remain disciplined and have observed a recent slowdown in the deal pipeline.

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    Alex Sturnieks's questions to Potbelly Corp (PBPB) leadership

    Alex Sturnieks's questions to Potbelly Corp (PBPB) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alex Sturnieks, on behalf of Mark Smith, requested an update on digital ordering trends, specifically the mix between first-party and third-party channels, and future initiatives to drive traffic to Potbelly's own platforms. He also asked about the uptake and impact of the 50-50 franchisee incentive program.

    Answer

    CEO Bob Wright highlighted that digital sales exceeded 42% of total sales, a 200 basis point increase year-over-year. He detailed planned investments in the company's app, web, and Perks loyalty program, supported by a new data and analytics platform to enable more targeted customer communication. Regarding the 50-50 incentive, Wright noted it is highly valued by franchisees, especially large area developers who factor the long-term savings on fees and royalties into their capital allocation models, accelerating their development timelines.

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    Alex Sturnieks's questions to Potbelly Corp (PBPB) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Alex Sturnieks inquired about consumer behavior changes in Q1 2025 versus Q4 2024, the impact of digital sales and the loyalty program on same-store sales, the competitive landscape for hot sandwiches, and the outlook for commodity inflation and potential tariff impacts.

    Answer

    CEO Robert Wright stated that underlying consumer demand remains strong, with digital sales growing to over 40% of total sales and the Perks loyalty program successfully driving customer frequency. He emphasized Potbelly's unique position as a fast-casual brand in a sea of sub shops. CFO Steven Cirulis addressed costs, forecasting 2-3% commodity inflation and ~2.2% labor inflation for 2025, noting that the company is 60% locked on commodities for the year and sees minimal impact from potential tariffs on items like avocados.

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    Alex Sturnieks's questions to Potbelly Corp (PBPB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Alex Sturnieks, on for Mark Smith, asked for an update on the competitive discounting environment, the level of promotion needed to drive traffic, and whether new value offerings beyond the $7.99 combo are planned. He also inquired about the performance of the new store prototype.

    Answer

    President & CEO Robert Wright explained that Potbelly is avoiding deep, aggressive discounts on core menu items to protect brand equity and margins. He emphasized a layered value approach with the $7.99 combo, meal deals, and the Pick-your-Pair option, which successfully targets less frequent, in-shop customers. Regarding the new store prototype, Wright stated the company is 'super pleased,' noting that the smaller 1,800 sq. ft. design is delivering margin enhancement and that new shops are performing well against sales forecasts.

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    Alex Sturnieks's questions to VSTO leadership

    Alex Sturnieks's questions to VSTO leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked about the possibility of divesting brands within the Revelyst portfolio and the nature of the promotional environment heading into the holiday season.

    Answer

    Executives confirmed they are evaluating all assets and are open to divesting non-core brands to focus on their 'power brands'. They also stated that the promotional environment will be higher than historical levels in Q3 to move through high-priced inventory, which will temporarily lower Revelyst's EBITDA margins before returning to more normal levels in Q4.

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