Alexa Petrick

Alexa Petrick of Goldman Sachs asked for Canadian Natural Resources' updated perspective on M&A activity following recent acquisitions and sought commentary on its capital allocation strategy, balancing dividend growth, share repurchases, and potential future M&A. She also inquired about the macro outlook for light-heavy differentials, considering OPEC's barrel additions, and views on mid-cycle differentials.

Answer

President Scott Stauth stated that the company's capital allocation policy remains unchanged, emphasizing a selective approach to M&A focused on accretive opportunities near core areas. Regarding macro outlook, he projected light-heavy differentials to remain in the CAD 10-CAD 13/barrel range, supported by strong egress capacity from TMX and robust Asian demand, which has stabilized the Western market.

Alexa Petrick of Goldman Sachs inquired about Canadian Natural Resources' updated M&A strategy following recent acquisitions and its broader capital allocation approach, balancing dividend growth, share repurchases, and potential future M&A. She also sought the company's macro outlook on light-heavy differentials, considering OPEC supply and mid-cycle assumptions.

Answer

Scott Stauth, President, stated there were no significant changes to the M&A or capital allocation policies, emphasizing a selective approach to accretive acquisitions near core areas. Regarding differentials, he projected a stable $10-$13/barrel range, supported by strong egress capacity from TMX and robust Asian demand for Canadian heavy crude.

Alexa Petrick asked for early insights into Q4 performance, specifically regarding quarter-over-quarter capture dynamics, including the jet-diesel differential and other contributing factors. She also questioned how Par Pacific, with its high distillate yield, views the future of distillate versus gasoline cracks, especially with incremental heavy barrels entering the market.

Answer

Shawn Flores, SVP and CFO, noted the Q4 refining index was up, but expected seasonal dynamics to impact Rockies later in the quarter. He guided Hawaii capture around 110% (with a minor crack hedge headwind), Tacoma capture in the 85-95% range (favorable jet-diesel dynamics offset by worsening asphalt netbacks), and strong diesel margins in Montana/Wyoming with expected seasonal declines. Will Monteleone, President and CEO, confirmed the company operates in "max distillate mode" across its refineries, sees no significant incentive to shift to heavier barrels, and configures crude purchases to maximize distillate yield, aligning well with global trends.

Alexa Petrick of Goldman Sachs asked for insights into Q2 demand trends, particularly in China and Asia, and requested directional guidance on refining capture rates for the upcoming quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Will Monteleone noted steady to increasing demand across all of Par Pacific's markets, with the Singapore market experiencing mid-cycle conditions. SVP and CFO Shawn Flores provided detailed Q2 capture rate guidance, expecting Hawaii at 100-110% and Tacoma improving to 85-95%. He noted that Montana and Wyoming would be noisy due to turnaround and outage impacts, respectively.

Alexa Petrick of Goldman Sachs inquired about the mid-cycle earnings outlook for Calumet's renewable diesel business amid the challenging regulatory environment and asked about the company's strategy for further debt reduction, including the role of potential future divestitures.

Answer

CEO Todd Borgmann addressed the questions, stating that mid-cycle renewable diesel margins of $1.50 per gallon could generate approximately $140-150 million in adjusted EBITDA for Montana Renewables. He identified regulatory clarity on the RVO and SREs as key catalysts for margin recovery. Regarding debt, Borgmann outlined a three-pronged approach: utilizing free cash flow, pursuing strategic asset sales, and ultimately completing the Montana Renewables monetization to reach their $800 million restricted group debt target.

Alexa Petrick from Goldman Sachs asked about Delek's capital allocation strategy for the cash generated from its EOP progress, specifically how the company balances capital returns with balance sheet improvements. She also inquired about the business outlook for Q3, including current demand trends and the forecast for crude differentials.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq reiterated Delek's consistent capital allocation policy, which prioritizes maintaining the dividend and a balanced approach between share buybacks and strengthening the balance sheet, noting the company's leading shareholder return profile. For the Q3 outlook, Soreq highlighted constructive market fundamentals with low diesel and gasoline inventories. Mohit Bhardwaj, EVP of Strategy, Business Development & IR, added that PAD 2 distillate inventories are significantly below five-year averages, signaling a positive outlook.

Alexa Petrick asked about Delek's capital allocation strategy, specifically how the company is balancing capital returns and balance sheet improvements in light of the cash flow from the EOP. She also requested an outlook for Q3, including demand trends and crude differentials.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq reiterated a consistent and balanced capital allocation strategy, highlighting the maintained dividend and counter-cyclical buybacks, which totaled approximately $150 million in shareholder returns over the last twelve months. For the Q3 outlook, Soreq noted a constructive market with low diesel inventories and decent demand. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj added that PADD 2 distillate inventories are significantly below five-year averages, suggesting a particularly optimistic outlook for diesel.

Alexa Petrick asked about Delek's capital allocation strategy, specifically how the company is balancing capital returns and balance sheet improvements given the free cash flow from the EOP. She also requested an outlook for the third quarter, including demand trends and the view on crude differentials.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq affirmed a consistent strategy of maintaining the dividend while balancing buybacks and balance sheet management, highlighting counter-cyclical share repurchases and a leading position in capital returns among peers. Regarding Q3, Soreq noted a constructive market with low diesel inventories and decent gasoline demand. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj added that PADD 2 distillate inventories are well below five-year averages despite high utilization, signaling an optimistic outlook.

Alexa Petrick from Goldman Sachs asked about Delek's capital allocation strategy, specifically how the company balances shareholder returns with balance sheet improvements using cash from the EOP. She also requested an outlook for Q3, including demand trends and crude differentials.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq reiterated Delek's consistent and balanced capital allocation strategy, highlighting the maintenance of dividends and counter-cyclical share buybacks, which positioned them as a leader in shareholder returns among peers. For the Q3 outlook, Soreq noted constructive market fundamentals, citing low diesel inventories and steady demand. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj added that PADD 2 distillate inventories are well below five-year averages, suggesting an optimistic outlook, especially for diesel.

Alexa Petrick from Goldman Sachs asked about Delek's capital allocation strategy for the cash generated from its EOP progress, specifically the balance between shareholder returns and balance sheet improvements. She also requested an outlook for Q3, including demand trends and crude differentials.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq reiterated a consistent capital allocation policy focused on maintaining the dividend and a balanced approach to buybacks and balance sheet management, noting recent counter-cyclical share repurchases. For the Q3 outlook, Mr. Soreq highlighted positive market fundamentals, with diesel inventories at a five-year low and solid demand. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj added that Pad 2 distillate inventories are significantly below average despite high refinery utilization, signaling an optimistic outlook.

Alexa Petrick from Goldman Sachs asked for a breakdown of the higher-than-expected GTA costs in the Q3 guidance and how to model these costs on a per BOE basis for 2026. She also inquired about the company's outlook for normalized free cash flow.

Answer

SVP & CFO Neal Shah detailed the three components of GTA costs: the FLNG toll (which included a one-time bonus in Q2), the FPSO lease (targeted for refinancing), and field OpEx (where startup costs will decrease). He reiterated that the company's normalized free cash flow breakeven target remains in the $50-$55 per barrel range, with approximately $100 million of additional free cash flow for every $5 increase in oil price.

Alexa Petrick inquired about market demand for hydrogen liquefiers, asking if 30 tonnes per day (tpd) is becoming a common size, and requested more details on the mining project award expected in Q4.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko explained that the market trend is toward larger hydrogen liquefiers, with some well-capitalized companies exploring 100 tpd plants to build out a true infrastructure. Regarding the mining project, she confirmed it is an international award valued at approximately $40 million and will primarily utilize Howden legacy equipment.