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    Alvaro de Tejada • Morgan Stanley

    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership

    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alvaro de Tejada of Morgan Stanley asked if the term deposit mix could decline as interest rates fall. He also sought confirmation of the bank's intention to distribute capital above its 13-14% CET1 target range.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite reiterated that the bank is comfortable operating within its 13-14% CET1 range and that capital distributions are reviewed with the Board at half and full-year intervals, with no change in philosophy. CFO Katie Murray noted that the term deposit mix has been relatively stable, supported by a strong ISA season, and that retention of maturing deposits remains high.

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    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Alvaro de Tejada of Morgan Stanley followed up on the mortgage business, asking if spreads should improve with recovering volumes and a better mix. He also inquired about the commercial lending environment, questioning if the strong Q1 growth was driven by pent-up demand and how activity might evolve if interest rates remain elevated.

    Answer

    CFO Katie Murray reiterated that the mortgage market remains highly competitive and guided analysts to focus on the total book margin, which is stabilizing. Executive Paul Thwaite described the commercial and institutional lending growth as broad-based and encouraging, reflecting improved business confidence, and noted the bank feels more confident about commercial lending now than a few months ago.

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    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership

    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alvaro de Tejada asked about the feasibility of achieving the $40 billion US cards receivables target by 2026 given the current economic cycle, and requested color on Investment Bank activity and visibility for the remainder of the year.

    Answer

    Executive Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan stated that growth in US cards is a long-term strategic decision based on organic growth, risk transfers, and portfolio acquisitions, which won't be derailed by short-term volatility. Executive Angela Cross added that the IB's Q1 performance, with strong Markets offsetting weaker Banking, demonstrated the franchise's resilience and was in line with expectations for a volatile environment.

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    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership

    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alvaro de Tejada from Morgan Stanley inquired about Santander's strategic growth priorities, particularly the importance of the U.S. market, and how capital might be redeployed. He also asked about regulatory model headwinds and RWA savings from SRTs.

    Answer

    Executive Hector Blas Grisi Checa affirmed that the U.S. is a 'really important growth market.' He outlined capital deployment priorities as: first, organic growth which yields over 20% returns; second, share buybacks; and third, focusing on the ongoing business transformation. CFO José Antonio García Cantera noted that asset mobilization was seasonally low at EUR 2.8 billion but is expected to accelerate.

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    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Alvaro de Tejada of Morgan Stanley sought clarification on the U.S. fee performance, asking if the current level is a sustainable run rate. He also asked about a prior-year one-off in Brazil's payment business and the NII outlook for Brazil and the U.K.

    Answer

    CEO Héctor Grisi confirmed a strong U.S. pipeline dependent on market conditions and clarified a EUR 95 million one-off in Brazil Payments in Q1 2023. CFO José García Cantera provided NII outlooks, expecting mid-to-high teens growth in Brazil for the year and a mid-single-digit decline in the U.K., but noted group customer revenue should approach double-digit growth for 2024.

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    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership

    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Alvaro de Tejada pressed for a range on Mexico's loan growth under different political and economic scenarios. He also asked about the remaining impacts from Basel IV regulations, given no expected impact in 2025, and whether some rules could be pushed out.

    Answer

    Onur Genç (Executive) stated that Mexico possesses structural advantages, such as low manufacturing costs and low private sector leverage, making it resilient. He expressed high confidence in the high single-digit loan growth guidance. On regulation, Genç clarified that no material Basel impact is expected in 2026 or 2027 either, with only a minor potential impact in 2028 from operational risk. He emphasized that BBVA is not affected by the output floor, making the overall Basel impact marginal.

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    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership

    Alvaro de Tejada's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Alvaro de Tejada of Morgan Stanley sought to understand the drivers of NII upside in 2025, asking if loan and deposit growth could accelerate further from current levels. He also questioned how loan pricing and spreads are holding up amid strong volume growth and how this might offset interest rate sensitivity.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar expressed optimism for 2025 volume growth, viewing the current momentum as an inflection point after years of deleveraging. CFO Javier Pano stated that the competitive landscape, particularly in mortgages, has not changed, with pressure on asset-side spreads but less on liability-side yields. He noted that while competition is intense, the better demand tone, especially from SMEs, is a positive for future NII.

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