Sign in

    Alvaro Serrano • Morgan Stanley

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alvaro Serrano of Morgan Stanley followed up on deposit trends, asking about the drivers of unusual seasonality, whether the improved deposit mix is a sustainable trend, and the maturity of new ALCO portfolio investments.

    Answer

    Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche (executive) attributed the positive deposit trend to strong structural growth in disposable income and savings rates, plus significant client acquisition (340,000), which is offsetting typical seasonal weakness. Javier Pano Riera (executive) confirmed this positive trend in non-interest-bearing deposits creates more ALCO opportunities. He specified that new derivative hedges are typically for 4-5 years, while new fixed-income investments are going longer, up to 10 years, to capture the steepening yield curve.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Alvaro Serrano of Morgan Stanley followed up on the NII outlook, asking if volume growth could accelerate further in 2025 and whether this growth could offset NII sensitivity to lower rates. He also inquired about loan pricing spreads amid the strong growth.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar expressed optimism that volume growth in 2025 would be better than in 2024, signaling a potential inflection point in the long-term credit cycle. CFO Javier Pano noted that the lending market remains highly competitive, particularly in mortgages, but the increasing share of fixed-rate loans helps stabilize NII sensitivity. He confirmed these dynamics are incorporated into their projections.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Alvaro Serrano challenged the NII guidance, noting that a mid-single-digit growth for the year implies a steep second-half decline and asked if this was due to conservatism. He also asked how the bank would react to a potential 100 basis point countercyclical buffer.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar addressed the buffer, stating it would not alter the €12 billion capital plan and that any implementation would likely have a transition period. CFO Javier Pano clarified the NII outlook, providing a key assumption of an average 80 bps cost of deposits for the year and suggesting NII would likely see a quarter-on-quarter reduction starting in Q2.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley asked about the feasibility of achieving the $40 billion US cards receivables target by 2026 amid cyclical concerns. He also requested color on the Investment Bank's performance trends during Q1 and visibility for the remainder of the year.

    Answer

    Executive Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan stated that US cards growth is a long-term strategic decision based on organic growth, risk transfers, and portfolio deals, which won't be derailed by short-term volatility. Executive Angela Cross added that the Investment Bank's strong Q1 reflected broad-based strength in FICC and Equities, offsetting a softer banking environment, demonstrating the franchise's resilience.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Alvaro Serrano inquired about Santander's strategic growth priorities, particularly the importance of the U.S. market, and how capital might be redeployed. He also asked about regulatory model headwinds and RWA savings from SRTs in the quarter.

    Answer

    Executive Hector Blas Grisi Checa affirmed the U.S. is a 'really important growth market' and outlined capital deployment priorities as organic growth, share buybacks, and focusing on the business transformation. CFO José Antonio García Cantera noted that asset mobilization was seasonally low in Q1 but should accelerate, and he expects regulatory headwinds on capital to be minimal going forward.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley followed up on U.S. fee performance, asking if the current level is a sustainable run rate. He also requested clarification on a prior-year one-off in Brazil's payment fees and asked for the NII outlook for Brazil and the U.K.

    Answer

    CEO Héctor Grisi noted the U.S. has a strong pipeline but performance depends on market conditions. He confirmed a EUR 95 million one-off in Brazil Payments in Q1 2023. CFO José García Cantera projected mid-to-high teens NII growth in Brazil for the year and a mid-single-digit NII decline in the U.K., but stated group customer revenue should be close to double-digits for 2024.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership

    Alvaro Serrano's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley requested a potential range for Mexico's loan growth under different political scenarios and asked for clarification on remaining Basel IV impacts after 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Onur Genç emphasized Mexico's structural advantages, such as low manufacturing costs and low private sector leverage, which support resilient growth. He expressed high confidence in the high single-digit loan growth guidance. Regarding Basel IV, Genç stated no impact is expected in 2026 or 2027, with only a potential marginal impact from operational risk in 2028. He noted BBVA is unaffected by the output floor due to its high RWA density.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI