Ami Probandt

Amy Probandt, on behalf of Michael Goldsmith, inquired about the evolution of Invitation Homes' relationships with homebuilders and the factors contributing to a moderating homebuilder partnership pipeline and potentially lower growth from this avenue.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Scott Eisen stated that dialogue with homebuilders remains strong, but Invitation Homes has been less aggressive in committing to future transactions due to its cost of capital. He noted that the company continues to receive substantial deal flow, particularly at month-end, and is being selective, also exploring opportunities for joint venture partners. Eisen confirmed that Invitation Homes purchased over 2,000 homes from homebuilders last year but is currently less aggressive in acquisitions, balancing them against share repurchases.

Ami Probandt of UBS Group, on for Michael Goldsmith, requested more context on build-to-rent (BTR) supply in major markets and asked if there was incremental pressure from scattered-site supply.

Answer

CEO Dallas Tanner confirmed that as the for-sale market has slowed, some scattered-site inventory has shifted to the rental market, adding near-term pressure. Regarding BTR, he noted the situation feels better than last year, with fewer concessions and a clearer path to absorption. He reiterated that data points to BTR deliveries being down significantly into 2026.

On behalf of Michael Goldsmith, Ami Probandt of UBS asked for more context on the impact of build-to-rent (BTR) and scattered-site supply in major markets.

Answer

CEO Dallas Tanner noted that as the for-sale housing market has slowed, some inventory has shifted to the rental market, creating near-term pressure on scattered-site new lease growth. Regarding BTR, he stated the situation feels better than last year, with fewer concessions and normal absorption occurring. He reiterated that data suggests BTR deliveries will decline significantly into 2026, which should ease supply pressures.

Ami Probandt asked if the current trend of higher individual tax refunds could parallel 2021 and 2022, potentially leading to increased demand or pricing power for Centerspace, or if it's expected to be a one-time boost with minimal impact on multifamily demand. She also inquired about the dynamics driving Q4 2025's trend where rent growth outpaced revenue growth, and if Colorado's rebilling changes impacted this, and expressed concern about affordability in markets with consistent CPI-plus renewal growth.

Answer

President and CEO Anne Olson clarified that individual tax refunds are not expected to directly impact multifamily demand, anticipating disposable income to fuel consumer spending, noting strong resident health and low bad debt. She affirmed strong affordability, with rent-to-income ratios holding steady or lowering as incomes increased faster than rent. CFO Bhairav Patel explained that the Q4 2025 divergence was primarily due to occupancy pressure in some markets, which has since rebounded, and clarified that Colorado's regulatory changes impacting RUBS began in January 2026, not affecting 2025 results.

Ami Probandt asked about the potential impact of higher individual tax refunds in 2026 on demand or pricing power, drawing parallels to 2021-2022. She also inquired about the dynamics driving the shift where rent growth in Q4 was ahead of revenue growth, and if Colorado rebilling changes were a factor.

Answer

President and CEO Anne Olson clarified that individual tax refunds are likely a one-time boost that will impact consumer spending and credit, rather than directly increasing multifamily demand or pricing power, noting strong resident health and low bad debt. CFO Bhairav Patel explained that the Q4 difference between rent and revenue growth was primarily due to occupancy pressure in some markets like Rochester, which has since improved in January. He confirmed that Colorado's new regulations impacting rebilling began in January 2026 and did not affect Q4 2025.

Ami Probandt from UBS Group inquired about the drivers behind the strong year-over-year occupancy growth despite challenging comps, why this hasn't translated into more pricing power, and what kind of acquisition opportunities the company is seeing in its new Salt Lake City market.

Answer

EVP & CFO Bhairav Patel stated that they expect to sustain the occupancy momentum, which has helped offset some rate pressure. President & CEO Anne Olson clarified that the lack of overall pricing power is a portfolio blend issue; strong growth in tertiary markets is being offset by softness and concessions in the large Denver portfolio. SVP Grant Campbell noted that the company has been building a pipeline in Salt Lake City and is confident in seeing future opportunities there.

Ami Probandt of UBS inquired about the lumpiness in Q1 operating expenses, particularly real estate taxes, and asked for the outlook for these lines for the remainder of the year. She also asked about the drivers behind the lower resident retention rate seen in the quarter.

Answer

CFO Bhairav Patel explained that the OpEx lumpiness was expected due to a difficult comparison from property tax appeal refunds in the prior year and new assessments in markets like Denver. Regarding retention, he noted Q1 has low lease expiration volume and was impacted by move-outs from a value-add project in Nebraska, adding that retention rebounded strongly to nearly 59% in April.

Ami Probandt requested a breakdown of Independence Realty Trust's blended spread forecast by Sunbelt and Midwestern markets, and an explanation of the impact of value-add programs on these blended rates. She also inquired about how a lower supply environment influences capital allocation for redevelopment and if it typically leads to higher redevelopment returns, seeking context on how much higher these returns could be.

Answer

Jim Sebra, CFO and Treasurer, stated that value-add programs support blended rates by 20-30 basis points. He projected blended rental rate growth of 1% in the first half and 2.5% in the second half of 2026, with regional specifics: negative in Denver, 2.5%-3% in the Midwest, and just under 2% in the Sun Belt. He confirmed that lower supply environments generally lead to higher redevelopment returns due to increased pricing power for renovated units, noting that while last year's ROI was 15.3%, prior years with less supply saw returns in the high teens, sometimes exceeding 20%.

Ami Probandt requested a breakdown of the blended spread forecast into Sunbelt and Midwestern buckets and the impact of value-add programs on these blends. She also asked how a lower supply environment influences capital allocation for redevelopment and if it typically leads to higher returns, seeking context on how much higher these returns could be.

Answer

Jim Sebra, President and CFO, indicated that value-add programs support overall blends by 20-30 basis points. He projected full-year blended rent growth to be negative in Denver, 2.5%-3% in the Midwest, and just under 2% in the Sun Belt. Scott Schaeffer, CEO, confirmed that lower supply environments lead to better pricing power and higher returns on renovated units, noting that last year's ROI was 15.3%, while in prior years before significant supply, it was in the high teens, sometimes exceeding 20%.

Ami Probandt from UBS asked what surprised IRT about supply trends in 2025, given that deliveries are typically well-forecasted. She also questioned the potential impact of single-family rentals and the expected cap rates on assets held for sale.

Answer

President & CFO Jim Sebra stated the surprise was the lingering pressure and higher volume of deliveries, which were pulled forward from 2026 into 2025, increasing from a forecasted 2.6% to 3.5% of stock. He noted single-family rentals were not a significant factor and estimated disposition cap rates in the low-to-mid 5% range.

Ami Probandt questioned the expected cadence of same-store revenue growth now that difficult occupancy comps are ahead, and asked about the relative performance of Class A vs. Class B assets.

Answer

President and CFO Jim Sebra stated that future same-store revenue growth will be driven by rental rate growth and a reduction in bad debt. He noted that Class B properties continue to experience strong, stable demand, and that renovated value-add units are almost always pre-leased, indicating resilient demand for the core portfolio.

Ami Probandt inquired about the recent increase in Agree Realty's 2026 investment guidance, specifically asking how the increase was distributed across the company's investment platforms and if it was driven by large transactions or numerous one-off opportunities. Probandt also asked about the rationale behind specific non-core asset sales, such as Family Dollar, a fitness operator, and a Goodyear store, seeking to understand what makes certain tenants more suitable for capital recycling.

Answer

President and CEO Joey Agree explained that the increased guidance was primarily due to securing several sale-leaseback transactions set to close in Q1 and Q2, as well as single credit portfolio transactions on the acquisition side. He noted that all three platforms (acquisitions, development, and DFP) saw accelerated activity. Regarding asset sales, Mr. Agree stated that dispositions included opportunistic sales in key markets like Florida, California, and Texas, paring back exposure to certain retailers like Advance Auto Parts, and taking advantage of valuations driven by the 1031 market or 'big, beautiful bill' purchasers where the asset's value did not align with their prospective value.

Ami Probandt inquired about the recent increase in 2026 investment guidance, specifically how the additional capital is allocated across platforms and if it's driven by large transactions or an increase in one-off opportunities. She also asked about the strategy behind non-core asset sales, identifying specific tenants like Family Dollar, a fitness operator, and Goodyear, and what factors make them suitable for capital recycling.

Answer

President and CEO Joey Agree explained that the increased guidance is primarily due to securing several sale-leaseback transactions and a single credit portfolio, alongside accelerated activity across all three platforms (acquisitions, development, and DFP). Regarding dispositions, Mr. Agree noted opportunistic sales in key markets, paring back exposure to certain retailers like Advance Auto Parts, and leveraging valuations driven by the 1031 market where asset value doesn't match prospective purchasers.

Ami Probandt from UBS Group asked about any surprises from the single-family rental (SFR) community lease-ups and whether Camden is considering more projects in that space.

Answer

President & CFO Alex Jessett described the SFR lease-up as "incredibly slow," noting the demographic takes much longer to make a decision. However, he expects these residents to be very "sticky" once they move in. He contrasted this with the strong demand for traditional apartments, where a new development is leasing up 35% faster than underwritten, indicating no plans to pivot heavily into SFR.

Ami Probandt of UBS, on for Michael Goldsmith, asked if Camden intends to rebuild its land bank to start more development projects as the market outlook improves.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ric Campo responded, "Absolutely." He affirmed that Camden is actively in the marketplace trying to rebuild its land bank, emphasizing the company's long history of creating significant value through development. He noted that while underwriting is more difficult today, they remain disciplined but optimistic about the future.

Ami Probandt asked about Camden's top-performing markets, questioning whether the outperformance is market-wide or due to company-specific factors, and specifically asked if the demand boost in Tampa was sustainable or hurricane-related.

Answer

Executive Vice Chairman D. Keith Oden confirmed that Tampa's demand boost was indeed hurricane-related and is expected to moderate. He noted that Houston is a key differentiator for Camden due to its significant presence in a low-supply market. Chairman and CEO Ric Campo added that Camden's operational excellence and strong team culture, recognized by its long-standing inclusion on Fortune's '100 Best Companies to Work For' list, also contribute to outperformance through better customer service and higher resident retention.

Speaking for Michael Goldsmith, Ami Probandt asked about the demand-side changes that led to lower-than-expected blended spreads and the outlook for the supply-demand balance in 2025.

Answer

President and CFO Alexander Jessett reiterated that the company made a strategic decision in Q3 to prioritize occupancy over rate to maximize revenue, which led to lower spreads but in-line revenue results. Chairman and CEO Richard Campo addressed the 2025 outlook, stating that job growth is expected to remain strong at around 440,000 across Camden's markets. With new deliveries in 2025 projected to be similar to 2024 levels, he expects the overall supply-demand dynamics to look 'fairly similar' to the current year.

On behalf of Michael Goldsmith, Ami Probandt from UBS asked if Sunbelt market occupancy must return to pre-COVID levels to restore pricing power and what the potential timeline for such a recovery might be.

Answer

COO Sean Breslin responded that while pricing power improves with rising occupancy, full pricing power will only return once the market reaches a more normal stabilized level. He emphasized that this is a multi-year process for the recovery to fully flow through to revenue growth, as it requires absorbing standing inventory and burning off concessions.

Ami Probandt from UBS inquired about the outlook for when AvalonBay's expansion markets might reach a supply-demand equilibrium and regain pricing power. She also asked for clarification on what assumptions are included in the company's earn-in calculation.

Answer

CEO Benjamin Schall stated that high-supply Sunbelt submarkets are expected to face meaningful pressure through 2025, with impacts rolling into 2026. He noted that while new start volumes are declining, a return to balance is more likely in the 2026 timeframe. COO Sean Breslin confirmed that the earn-in calculation does include the prospective rent growth forecasts for the remainder of the year.

Ami Probandt of UBS Group asked for commentary on operating trends in Washington D.C., given its softer new lease growth, and posed a broader question on whether the recent shift in leasing seasonality is a permanent trend.

Answer

SVP & COO Michael Lacy noted that D.C. remains a top-performing market with 4.9% revenue growth, 97% occupancy, and 3.5-3.6% blended lease growth, supported by strong other income growth. On seasonality, Lacy attributed the recent trend to the industry's focus on building occupancy earlier. Chairman & CEO Thomas Toomey added that the past few years' dynamics were influenced by heavy supply and interest rate uncertainty, suggesting the current pattern is not necessarily a permanent shift but a reaction to market conditions.

Ami Probandt from UBS asked if the rollout of bulk WiFi affects UDR's ability to push renewal rents and whether more pricing power could emerge once the rollout is complete. She also questioned what made the San Francisco recapitalization deal attractive given recent issues with other DPE investments.

Answer

COO Mike Lacy stated that the WiFi rollout is not negatively impacting renewal rent growth, which at 4.5% is in line with peers. CEO Tom Toomey added that high-speed internet is a necessity and UDR's bulk purchasing provides a margin advantage. CFO Joe Fisher explained the value proposition for residents includes convenience and property-wide access. Regarding the San Francisco deal, Fisher differentiated it from past troubled investments, noting it's a recapitalization of a stable, operating asset with a last-dollar LTV in the mid-70s and approximately 70% of the return paid currently in cash, which de-risks the investment.

On behalf of Michael Goldsmith, Ami Probandt of UBS Group inquired about demand trends in Northern California and Seattle, including any signs of price sensitivity.

Answer

President & CEO Angela Kleiman reported steady demand in both Northern California and Seattle with no signs of softness. She attributed Northern California's strength to its high affordability, as rents are still recovering relative to income growth. In Seattle, she noted that a favorable decrease in new supply deliveries is expected in the second half of the year, which should support the steady demand environment.

Ami Probandt of UBS, on for Michael Goldsmith, asked about the potential impact of new rent control measures in Maryland and Washington State, and inquired about any offsetting factors within the maintained revenue guidance.

Answer

CEO Mark Parrell expressed disappointment with the new rent control laws, calling them a disincentive to capital investment and stating they are unlikely to invest further in Maryland. CFO Bob Garechana confirmed that while there are moving pieces within the revenue guidance, key metrics like occupancy are running ahead of expectations while others are in line, and it's too early in the year to make adjustments.

Speaking for Michael Goldsmith, Ami Probandt asked if the positive in-migration trends seen on the West Coast were also present in East Coast markets. She also inquired about the trend in bad debt levels for new residents coming into the portfolio.

Answer

COO Michael Manelis responded that migration patterns in their East Coast markets remain very much in line with pre-pandemic historical norms. CFO Bob Garechana added that bad debt from new residents has normalized to pre-pandemic levels, though the cost per instance can be higher due to longer eviction processes.