Andrew Coombs

Andrew Coombs, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Citi, asked about the capital return strategy, specifically the pros and cons of shifting the 50% ordinary dividend payout policy, given the high bar for inorganic growth and trading above tangible book. He also inquired about the structural hedge's average duration, its maturity profile, and why NatWest doesn't see the need to increase it, unlike some peers.

Answer

CEO Paul Thwaite stated that while the ordinary dividend was increased to 50% this year and surplus capital is reviewed regularly, the ordinary payout is not actively under review, but it's a responsible board consideration over time. CFO Katie Murray clarified that the total hedge duration is closer to 3 years (product hedge 2.5 years), and the mechanistic model has performed well, with no current need to increase duration as underlying behavioral deposit life hasn't significantly changed, and extending it now wouldn't offer logical absolute pickup.

Andrew Coombs from Citi asked about the post-acquisition strategy for Sainsbury's Bank, focusing on synergies and customer base integration. He also sought clarification on the expected run rate for the cash flow hedge decay.

Answer

Executive Paul Thwaite described the Sainsbury's deal as strategically compelling, boosting unsecured credit card market share to 11%. He clarified it is not a synergy-led deal, as NatWest acquired customers and assets, not infrastructure. The focus is on cross-selling the full product suite. CFO Katie Murray confirmed the majority of the cash flow hedge will unwind over the next two years and the decay seen in Q1 is a reasonable indicator of the future run rate.

Andrew Coombs of Citi asked for an update on the mortgage business, seeking details on current completion spreads. He also questioned the strategy regarding the trade-off between maintaining attractive margins and defending market share, noting that flow share has recently lagged stock share.

Answer

Executive Paul Thwaite stated that the bank made conscious pricing choices in late 2023, affecting Q1 completions, but expects volumes and share to improve as margins strengthen. CFO Katie Murray added that new mortgage applications are being written around 70 basis points and that the back book margin is now close to the front book level, reducing the drag on NIM.

Andrew Coombs from Citigroup asked for an explanation of the Investment Bank's Q3 performance relative to U.S. peers, specifically if it was a mix effect across business segments or regions, or if there were any gaps to address. He also inquired about customer behavior and activity in the UK, particularly regarding mortgage and corporate loan growth, leading up to the November budget.

Answer

CS Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, Barclays, explained that Investment Bank performance variations quarter-to-quarter are normal, influenced by capital allocation by competitors, geographical concentration (e.g., Asia), and specific market conditions (commodities, credit). He affirmed that Barclays' Investment Bank has a strong, capable, full offering, with consistent progress in revenue, cost efficiency, and returns, and no identified gaps. Anna Cross, Group Finance Director, Barclays, described UK consumer behavior as cautious but improving, with higher credit spend and non-essential spending. She noted good demand for mortgage and corporate credit, with strong lending growth and market share gains, and stable, low delinquencies across all portfolios, indicating a robust UK landscape.

Andrew Coombs asked about the Investment Bank's Q3 performance, specifically if its slight lag compared to US peers was due to mix effects across business segments, regions, equities, or primary, and if there are any identified gaps. He also inquired about UK customer behavior and activity leading up to the November budget, following strong mortgage and corporate loan growth in Q3.

Answer

CS Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, Barclays, reiterated a long-term view for the Investment Bank, emphasizing meeting RWA, revenue, cost efficiency, and profitability targets. He attributed quarter-to-quarter variations to factors like competitor capital allocation, geographical concentration, and specific market roles (commodities, credit), viewing it as normal. He stated there are no gaps, with continued focus on technology, product sophistication, and client reach. Anna Cross, Group Finance Director, Barclays, described UK consumer behavior as cautiously improving, with higher credit spend and increased non-essential spending. She noted good demand for credit across mortgages (house purchase, first-time buyers, refinancing), cards, and the corporate book (400+ new clients this year), with low and stable delinquencies across portfolios, indicating a robust UK landscape.

Andrew Coombs asked about UK deposit trends, questioning the trade-off between margin and volume given recent balance contractions. He also inquired about the U.S. Consumer business, asking how the mix shift from the General Motors portfolio acquisition impacts the division's financial targets for receivables, NIM, and cost of risk.

Answer

Group Finance Director Anna Cross stated that on UK deposits, the bank chose to be disciplined on uneconomic pricing during a highly competitive ISA season but still grew ISA balances. For the U.S. Consumer business, she explained the GM acquisition is a key part of the strategy to shift the mix towards higher-margin retail balances, which improves risk-adjusted returns and supports the path to a >12% RoTE, with RoTE remaining the 'north star' over absolute growth targets.

Andrew Coombs from Citigroup asked for color on the strong FICC result, questioning if it contained any episodic revenues, and inquired about the sustainability of the robust growth seen in UK mortgage balances during the quarter.

Answer

Executive Angela Cross confirmed the FICC performance was strong and broad-based with no one-offs, reflecting prior investments in rates and securitized products. On mortgages, she noted that while some activity may have been pulled forward, the UK market fundamentals were healthy in Q1, with rising approvals, stable house prices, and real wage growth supporting the trend.

Inquired about the drivers of the quarterly decline in transaction banking revenue and the potential impact of upcoming FCA rules regarding 'on-sale versus off-sale' deposit products.

Answer

The decline in transaction banking revenue was due to a small impact from deposit migration and lower returns on the liquidity buffer. The impact from the upcoming FCA 'on-sale/off-sale' rules is expected to be minimal as Barclays' off-sale book is relatively small.

Andrew Coombs of Citigroup Inc. sought to clarify the capital return framework, asking about the interaction between the 50% payout ratio and the 14% CET1 threshold. He also highlighted a perceived disconnect between the positive rhetoric on the Corporate Bank and its recent performance, questioning how quickly loan growth could materialize.

Answer

CFO James von Moltke explained that the 50% payout is already disregarded in the year-end CET1 ratio calculation, and capital generated sustainably above the 14% threshold would be available for distribution. On the Corporate Bank, both he and CEO Christian Sewing acknowledged a lag between strategic initiatives and tangible results, but pointed to recent loan growth (ex-FX) and a strong pipeline as signs that momentum is building and will accelerate into 2026.

Andrew Coombs of Citi followed up on the impact of foreign exchange, asking for an updated full-year outlook based on current rates. He also requested help in calibrating the EUR 70 million tariff-related provision overlay for comparison with peers.

Answer

CFO James von Moltke explained that while current FX rates would put downward pressure on ex-FX guidance for both revenue and costs, the impact largely nets out at the pre-tax profit level. Regarding the provision overlay, he noted it was based on multiple internal variables, making a direct apples-to-apples comparison with other banks' disclosures difficult.

Andrew Coombs asked about the timing of potential provisioning for the motor finance issue, given the Supreme Court judgment and FCA redress scheme announcements may straddle the Q2 results. He also questioned if the delay in some tariffs would be reflected as a reversal in Q2.

Answer

Executive William Leon Chalmers suggested it would be difficult to refine the motor finance provision until the FCA's interpretation of the court judgment is clear, likely making it a Q3 event or later. He confirmed the £100 million tariff-related ECL charge was temporary and taken at a time of maximum uncertainty, and could be reconsidered in Q2 if the situation becomes more benign.

Andrew Coombs followed up on the rationale for fully accruing the share buyback now. He also asked for an explanation for why Q1 GWM NII came in below guidance and whether the unchanged full-year guidance implies a second-half recovery.

Answer

Sergio Ermotti, Group Chief Executive Officer, stated the buyback accrual reflects a shift from "ambition" to "intention" due to strong results, calling it a prudent approach. An executive then clarified the GWM NII miss was partly due to a client resegmentation and reaffirmed the full-year guidance, citing a positive loan outlook and tapering deposit headwinds as supportive factors for the second half.

Andrew Coombs of Citigroup asked for more detail on the changes to financial adviser (FA) incentives in GWM Americas and their potential impact on attrition. He also questioned the P&C NII guidance, seeking clarity on rate assumptions and how NII could plateau.

Answer

CFO Todd Tuckner explained the FA compensation changes align incentives with firm strategy (e.g., new money, solutions) and are more in line with peers, rewarding FAs who grow their business. On P&C NII, he noted that with Swiss rates expected near zero, there's little room for deposit margin maneuver, causing NII to trough and then plateau, with any rate move (positive or negative) being constructive from that low base.

Andrew Coombs questioned whether the active rundown of the Non-core and Legacy (NCL) portfolio is now largely complete and sought to identify which division was realizing cost savings ahead of schedule.

Answer

Executive Todd Tuckner stated that while progress in NCL has significantly narrowed the uncertainty, the bank is not extrapolating recent strong performance and is maintaining its guidance. He clarified that NCL has driven the "lion's share" of gross cost savings to date, with core businesses like GWM and P&C expected to become larger contributors in the latter half of the integration.

Andrew Coombs asked about the timing of the $1.8 billion in restructuring costs, noting the small Q1 charge implies a large step-up. He also questioned why only $300 million in savings is guided for FY25 when actions yielding that amount annually have already been taken. He also requested a breakdown of Asian net new invested assets.

Answer

Georges Elhedery, an executive, stated a fuller update would come at the interim results and that the majority of the $16 billion in Asian net new invested assets was in Hong Kong. Manveen Kaur, an executive, explained there is a time lag between restructuring actions and savings hitting the P&L, which is reflected in the full-year guidance. She confirmed the majority of restructuring costs will be booked in Q2 and Q3 2025.

Andrew Coombs questioned the drivers behind the 6 basis point rise in UK Net Interest Margin (NIM) and its sustainability. He also asked for an explanation of the NII volatility in Argentina and what a 'normal' contribution would be absent hyperinflation.

Answer

Georges Elhedery, Group CFO, stated the UK NIM rise was due to structural hedge timing and that the margin should be viewed as 'broadly flat' going forward. For Argentina, he explained that NII is volatile due to the interplay between hyperinflation and currency devaluation, making a 'normal' scenario impossible to model. He reiterated the full-year NII estimate for Argentina is around $1 billion, in line with the prior year.

Asked for confirmation on the NII consensus for 2023 and inquired about the future strategy for share buybacks, including whether the recent $3B amount is a new standard and how it trades off against loan growth.

Answer

The executive confirmed comfort with the 2023 NII consensus. The $3B buyback is not a new run-rate but reflects a longer execution window; rolling buybacks will continue. They do not see a direct trade-off with loan growth due to capital from asset sales and lower RWA intensity of new loans.

Asked for more detail on the quantum of the modest Pillar 2A increase and subsequent offset, and if it could change the 13-14% CET1 target. He also asked a broad question about what Barclays is looking for in the upcoming budget that could impact customer activity.

Answer

The executive said it was too early to provide a quantum for the Pillar 2A changes but noted the increase would be 'modest' and that they await further PRA guidance. Regarding the budget, the executive stated that as a large U.K. bank, they expect to be actively engaged across all economic dimensions affected by government policy.