Question · Q2 2025
Andrew Garry from Morgan Stanley requested a detailed outlook on the path of the Net Interest Margin (NIM), considering expectations for inflation, interest rates, loan mix shifts, and deposit betas for Q3, Q4, and into 2026.
Answer
Andrés Sansone, Chief Economist, detailed the bank's sensitivities, noting a long position in inflation. He projected a temporary NIM dip in Q3 2025 to the 'very high threes' due to a negative CPI print in July, but expects a recovery to above 4.0% in Q4. This would result in a full-year 2025 NIM around 4.1%. He anticipates a similar NIM for 2026, as inflation converges to 3% and the policy rate approaches its neutral level around 4%.
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