Andrew Kligerman

Andrew Kligerman asked about the sustainability of favorable renewal premium changes in small business insurance, the expected stabilization of property package pricing, and the long-term growth potential of the Prevail platform in the agency channel compared to the AARP direct-to-consumer book.

Answer

CEO Christopher Swift highlighted The Hartford's differentiated digital capabilities and strong agent relationships as drivers for sustained healthy growth in small business. Head of Business Insurance A. Morris Tooker added that while property pricing in E&S and package policies saw some deceleration, the GL portion of BOP is accelerating, and all small business products meet target margins. Head of Personal Lines Melinda Thompson noted that Prevail Agency presents a meaningful growth opportunity, leveraging the company's strong reputation with agents, though growing it to the size of the AARP book would take time.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the sustainability of favorable renewal premium changes in small business insurance, questioning its resilience against competitive pressures seen in larger segments, and sought clarification on property package pricing stabilization. He also inquired about the long-term growth potential of the Prevail platform in personal insurance, comparing it to the AARP direct-to-consumer book.

Answer

CEO Christopher Swift highlighted The Hartford's differentiated digital capabilities and strong agent relationships, expressing optimism for continued healthy growth in small business. A. Morris Tooker, Head of Business Insurance, added that while property pricing decelerated, liability components are accelerating, and all small business products meet target margins. Regarding Prevail, Christopher Swift clarified it's the platform for all new direct and agency business, with the back book running off. Melinda Thompson, Head of Personal Lines, confirmed Prevail Agency presents a meaningful growth opportunity, though reaching AARP's scale would take time.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the exceptional new business growth in small (11%) and middle/large (20%) segments, seeking details on the strongest lines and the drivers behind this growth in a softening market. He also inquired about the target underlying combined ratio for personal auto and the expected timeline for policy count growth following the Prevail rollout.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Christopher Swift highlighted broad-based growth across various lines, attributing success to disciplined execution and digital capabilities. President Mo Tooker added that strong flow in both admitted and non-admitted channels, especially in small business E&S binding (+47%), contributed to growth. For personal auto, Christopher Swift stated that target margins are currently met, aiming for a full-year underlying combined ratio of 95%, with growth expected to pick up in 2026. Head of Personal Insurance Melinda Thompson noted that moderating renewal price changes would help retention, and CFO Beth Costello clarified the 95% target is for the full year, with expected seasonality.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen asked about the drivers behind The Hartford's strong new business growth in small (11%) and middle/large (20%) segments, particularly which lines were strongest and how this growth is achieved in a potentially softening market. He also questioned the target underlying combined ratio for personal auto and the expected timeline for policy count growth with the Prevail rollout.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Chris Swift highlighted broad-based growth across various lines, including Spectrum, Global RE, business insurance auto, national accounts, and excess liability. President Mo Tooker emphasized strong flow in both admitted and non-admitted channels, driven by technology and agent efficiency. For personal auto, Mr. Swift confirmed target margins are met, aiming for a 95% full-year underlying combined ratio, and expects growth to pick up in 2026, especially with the Prevail agency rollout. Head of Personal Insurance Melinda Thompson noted that moderating renewal price changes in 2026 would help retention and top-line dynamics. CFO Beth Costello clarified the seasonality of auto results, with higher ratios expected in the second half.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen inquired about the drivers of the 9% premium growth in Global Specialty, its business mix, and specific growth areas. He also asked about the timing for a return to growth in Personal Lines and whether double-digit rate increases in auto and home would continue for the rest of the year.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Christopher Swift and President A. Morris Tooker detailed that Global Specialty's growth is broad-based, spanning international casualty, US E&O/D&O, wholesale (construction casualty), and global reinsurance. Regarding Personal Lines, Swift confirmed the company is ready to grow now, targeting policy-in-force count growth in 2026. He projected double-digit auto rates in Q3, moving to high-single digits in Q4, with low-double-digit rates continuing in home.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities questioned the pricing environment in Business Insurance, particularly in Mid & Large, and the sustainability of the strong underlying combined ratio. He also asked if the concept of an "underwriter's market" conflicts with the robust premium growth outlook.

Answer

CEO Christopher Swift expressed high confidence in achieving 2025 goals, noting strong pricing ex-comp across SME, property, and GL. Executive Adin Tooker added that underwriters are making disciplined choices, such as managing down the public D&O book. Executive Michael Fish highlighted strong pricing in Employee Benefits. Both Swift and Tooker asserted that being disciplined and growing premium are not conflicting goals, as strong distribution allows them to capitalize on flow while pulling back where rates are inadequate.

Andrew Kligerman asked for a breakdown of the $130 million prior year development in general liability, inquiring about the mix between older construction defect policies and recent accident years, and sought assurance about future reserve stability. He also questioned the sustainability of growth momentum in Small and Mid-to-Large Commercial lines.

Answer

CEO Christopher Swift expressed high confidence that the general liability (GL) reserve issue has been addressed, with higher loss cost trends now factored into 2025 pricing. CFO Beth Bombara clarified the $130 million charge was split roughly half-and-half between older accident years ('15-'18) driven by inflation on a legacy book, and more recent years driven by social inflation. She noted a more proactive reserving approach was taken this quarter. President Mo Tooker addressed commercial growth, stating Small Commercial's momentum is sustainable due to technology and E&S expansion, while the slowdown in Middle & Large was a disciplined, out-of-pattern response to a competitive quarter.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen questioned The Hartford's ability to gain market share across its Commercial Lines segments given strong premium growth. He also asked about the Group Benefits segment's compelling margin, its trajectory back toward the guided range, and the current competitive landscape.

Answer

CEO Christopher Swift and executive Adin Tooker confirmed they believe The Hartford is gaining market share, driven by strong submission flows and investments in technology and data science. On Group Benefits, Swift acknowledged the strong margin performance but noted a highly competitive environment where they remain disciplined on pricing, particularly for life products. Executive Michael Fish highlighted that persistency remains strong at over 90%.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen asked about Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's talent retention, specifically for producers, and its impact on organic revenue. He also inquired about the retention rates within AssuredPartners post-acquisition and the potential for AI to disintermediate intermediaries in small commercial business.

Answer

J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr. (Chairman and CEO) affirmed that producer retention has remained stable against historical norms, attributing it to their broker-run culture, sales support, and investment in tools. Doug Howell (CFO) confirmed producer retention is dead flat since 2019. Both executives expressed confidence that AI would not disintermediate intermediaries, especially in small commercial, emphasizing the need for trusted advisors and the complexity of service and claims. They see AI as a tool to improve efficiency and service, not replace production.

Andrew Kligerman asked about Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's ability to retain producers amidst industry poaching and the impact on organic revenue. He also questioned the potential for AI to disintermediate intermediaries, especially in small commercial, and confirmed AssuredPartners' alignment with Gallagher's retention strategies.

Answer

Chairman and CEO J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr. affirmed stable producer retention rates, consistent with historical norms, bolstered by talent acquired through M&A (over 2,000 new producers last year) and a robust internship program. CFO Doug Howell corroborated the 'dead flat' producer retention since 2019 and emphasized investments in sales tools like Gallagher Drive. On AI, Mr. Gallagher likened it to the internet's early days, stressing the enduring need for trusted advisors, particularly for small businesses. Mr. Howell added that AI would enhance service efficiency and back-office automation rather than replace production. Both executives confirmed AssuredPartners' team is stable, enthusiastic, and actively leveraging Gallagher's tools.

Andrew Kligerman asked about Gallagher's organic growth run rate expectations in the current pricing environment, comparing it to competitors' 4-6% estimates, and whether Gallagher can still pursue large M&A deals after the AssuredPartners acquisition.

Answer

CFO Douglas K. Howell noted that Gallagher expects to finish 2025 above 6% organic growth, with wholesale, programs, and reinsurance contributing to the higher end of the range. He confirmed that Gallagher absolutely can still pursue large M&A deals. Chairman and CEO J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr. emphasized that the company's diverse business lines allow for stronger performance.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked if the company's guidance incorporates a significant drop in property pricing, similar to what other E&S writers have suggested, and questioned if the Assured Partners transaction has disrupted the pace of tuck-in M&A.

Answer

CEO J. Patrick Gallagher firmly refuted the idea of a 20-30% property rate decrease, calling it a "bad number." CFO Douglas K. Howell clarified that while property renewal premiums were down 7%, this includes increased purchasing by clients. Mr. Gallagher also stated that the M&A pipeline remains robust, with nine deals closed in the quarter, demonstrating no disruption from the larger transaction.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked for clarification on property pricing, questioning if a significant 20-30% decline was factored into guidance, and inquired about the health of the M&A pipeline amidst the large Assured Partners transaction.

Answer

CEO J. Patrick Gallagher firmly refuted the 20-30% property decline figure, calling it a "bad number" across all account sizes. He also highlighted the strength of the tuck-in M&A pipeline, noting that completing nine deals while managing the Assured Partners transaction is a testament to the company's robust acquisition engine. CFO Douglas K. Howell added that their reported property premium change of down 7% includes offsetting exposure increases.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities questioned the change in the Risk Management segment's organic growth guidance, from 9-11% for 2024 to 6-8% for 2025. He also asked about plans for Gallagher's service center in India, including hiring needs for the AssuredPartners deal and the impact of technology.

Answer

CFO Douglas Howell explained the lower Risk Management guidance reflects the lumpy nature of winning large contracts, noting the business has a strong pipeline for 2025. CEO J. Gallagher added that while technology enhances efficiency at the India service center, growth demands more staff, and he expects to add 'additional thousands' of employees in the next year. Mr. Howell emphasized that standardization there provides a head start for AI implementation.

Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen inquired about AXIS Capital's expense ratio targets, specifically the underwriting-related general and administrative (G&A) goal for 2026 at 11%, and the trajectory of the overall consolidated expense ratio. He also asked about the sustainability of combined ratios given growth, and the nature of reserve releases, particularly regarding casualty lines.

Answer

CFO Pete Vogt clarified that the G&A ratio for 2025, when normalized for variable compensation, was on track for the 11% target in 2026, despite accelerated IT investments. President and CEO Vince Tizzio added that 2026 is expected to monetize these investments through increased efficiency and rationalized expenses. Regarding combined ratios, Pete Vogt indicated a normalized cat loss ratio of 4-5% and potential pressure on attritional loss ratios from rate and trend, aiming for an all-in combined ratio around 90%. Vince Tizzio and Pete Vogt confirmed confidence in the reserve position, noting releases came from short-tail lines, not long-tail, with incoming CFO Matt Kirk concurring.

Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen inquired about AXIS Capital's expense ratio, specifically the underwriting-related general and administrative expense ratio for 2025 and the target of 11% for 2026, as well as the consolidated overall expense ratio. He also questioned the sustainability of AXIS's margins given strong growth in insurance and potential growth in reinsurance, asking if the accident year combined ratio ex-cats of 88.6% for the year and 90.4% for the quarter were sustainable. Finally, Kligerman asked about the reserve development, particularly in casualty, and the confidence in the company's reserve position from both outgoing CFO Pete Vogt and incoming CFO Matt Kirk.

Answer

CFO Pete Vogt explained that the G&A ratio for 2025 was impacted by variable compensation, noting that normalized figures were on track for the 11% target in 2026, despite accelerated IT and operations spending. President and CEO Vince Tizzio added that 2026 is expected to leverage these investments for efficiency and productivity. Regarding margin sustainability, Pete Vogt indicated that a normalized cat loss ratio would be in the 4-5% range, and while attritional loss ratios might face some pressure from rate and trend not fully offset by mix, the all-in combined ratio around 90% remains a good target. Vince Tizzio reiterated confidence in the portfolio's premium adequacy and cost structure discipline. On reserves, Vince Tizzio stated strong confidence, noting releases came from short-tail lines, not long-tail, and Pete Vogt confirmed no significant or material issues in long-tail lines, expressing confidence in the balance sheet. Incoming CFO Matt Kirk also affirmed comfort with the reserve position and the strong balance sheet.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities inquired about AXIS Capital's long-term strategy for reinsurance cessions in its insurance segment, the sustainability of the reinsurance segment's 68% accident year loss ratio, the evolution of cedents' claims processes, and the company's competitive positioning in AI and technology investments.

Answer

President & CEO Vincent Tizzio explained that the company's reinsurance purchase strategy remains agile and dependent on their view of risk, capital position, and expense management. He noted that while cedents are re-evaluating claims processes post-industry reserve strengthening, AXIS remains observant. On technology, he stated their AI strategy is right-sized for efficiency and productivity, with tangible progress in areas like underwriting turnaround times. CFO Peter Vogt confirmed the 68% reinsurance loss ratio is consistent with prior guidance and is expected to hold for the year.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the future direction of property pricing after a 7% decline in Q1, the viability of achieving upper single-digit net written premium growth for the year, and the context behind prior year reserve development and 'cautious' loss picks.

Answer

CEO Vince Tizzio attributed the property rate decline to geographic mix, particularly a more competitive London market, but noted stable terms and conditions. Both Tizzio and CFO Pete Vogt affirmed that mid-to-high single-digit net written premium growth is a reasonable expectation, citing robust submission growth. They clarified that the 'cautious' loss picks were applied to reinsurance short-tail specialty lines due to the macro environment, not an indication of adverse casualty trends.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the significant Q4 rate increase in U.S. primary casualty, the outlook for 2025, and the apparent disconnect with softness in reinsurance casualty pricing. He also asked about the company's exposure to the Los Angeles wildfires and the drivers behind the Q4 expense ratio.

Answer

President and CEO Vincent Tizzio confirmed the 29% rate increase in primary casualty and expects double-digit rates to persist in 2025 due to portfolio reshaping. He noted a cautious underwriting appetite in liability reinsurance. Regarding the wildfires, Tizzio stated it will not be a material event for AXIS. CFO Pete Vogt explained the higher expense ratio was due to variable compensation accruals from strong performance and reaffirmed the company is on track for its 11% G&A target by 2026.

Andrew Kligerman asked about AXIS's confidence in its long-tail casualty reserves ahead of the Q4 review, given last year's charge, and the rationale for continued growth in the property insurance business amid rising competition.

Answer

President and CEO Vince Tizzio and CFO Pete Vogt expressed confidence in the company's reserve position. Vogt noted that the significant Q4 2023 charge addressed recent accident years ('20-'22) and that 2024 loss picks reflect those learnings. Tizzio added that the company's actions, such as reshaping the primary casualty book, support this view. Regarding property, Tizzio cited strong portfolio construction, a focus on the E&S market, robust submission activity, and high premium adequacy as key reasons for continued confidence in growth.

Andrew Kligerman asked for W. R. Berkley's big-picture growth potential for 2026, given recent premium growth disparities, and inquired about the specific short-tail lines driving growth and the current situation in workers' compensation.

Answer

CEO Rob Berkley indicated that the insurance business (excess and primary) should grow more than Q4 2025, while reinsurance faces increasing challenges. He identified A&H and Berkley One (private client business) as the main drivers of short-tail growth, noting that workers' comp premium reduction in Q4 was largely exposure-based with some timing issues.

Andrew Kligerman asked for a big-picture outlook on 2026 growth potential, given the disparities in recent monthly growth rates. He also inquired about the specific short-tail lines driving growth and sought more color on the workers' compensation segment, including whether fewer accounts were written due to rate or timing issues.

Answer

CEO Rob Berkley expects the insurance business (excess and primary) to grow more than Q4, while the reinsurance business may become more challenging, but avoided specific estimates. He identified A&H and Berkley One (private client) as key drivers for short-tail growth, not commercial lines. CFO Rich Baio added that the workers' comp decline was partly due to timing issues with renewals.

Andrew Kligerman asked about W. R. Berkley's loss development, specifically if there were releases in some areas and adverse development in others. He also sought clarity on the company's growth outlook and the sizing of its small-end accounts.

Answer

Rob Berkley, President and CEO, noted loss development was incremental and almost a push between segments, with no specific details readily available, but highlighted close attention to auto liability and umbrella. He stated the growth outlook is in flux due to market transitions, and approximately 85-90% of policies (excluding statutory limits) have limits of $2.5 million or less, emphasizing specialization.

Andrew Kligerman asked about loss development, specifically if there were releases in one area and adverse development in another. He also sought clarification on the growth outlook and the size of 'small end of the spectrum' accounts.

Answer

Rob Berkley (President and CEO) noted loss development was incremental and nearly a push between segments, with many moving pieces, and mentioned close attention to auto liability and umbrella. He acknowledged that growth could be in the mid-single-digit range due to market flux, making predictions difficult, but reiterated commitment to underwriting integrity. He quantified 'small end' accounts by stating 85-90% of policies (excluding statutory limits) have limits of $2.5 million or less, emphasizing specialization over commodity.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities inquired about pricing trends in the specialized workers' compensation market and the drivers behind the growth in commercial auto premiums.

Answer

President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. noted that the company is pleased with pricing in the higher-hazard, specialty workers' comp space and is leaning into those opportunities. He confirmed the company is confident in its commercial auto book and that its premium growth was driven by rate increases 'and then some.'

Andrew Kligerman from TD Securities inquired about pricing trends in the higher-hazard workers' compensation market and the drivers behind the growth in commercial auto premiums.

Answer

President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. confirmed that the company is pleased with the pricing in higher-hazard workers' compensation and is actively growing in that area. He stated that the growth in commercial auto was driven by rate increases "and then some," expressing confidence in the current book of business.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the primary drivers behind the 13% growth in short-tail lines, specifically asking which property sublines are attractive and what rate trends are being observed in that segment. He also questioned the sustainability of the Reinsurance segment's low combined ratio.

Answer

Executive W. Berkley clarified that growth in short-tail lines was driven by property and Accident & Health (A&H). He noted that the company sees opportunities on the property risk front, in its Berkley One high-net-worth business, and in A&H, while facing more competition in property cat. Regarding the reinsurance combined ratio, Berkley expressed satisfaction with the segment's performance and positioning but did not commit to a specific run rate, stating the portfolio is on firm ground.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities asked for an update on pricing momentum in the other liability line, which saw strong premium growth. He also sought to reconcile the company's optimism for primary casualty with its concerns and pullback in reinsurance casualty. Finally, he requested color on the performance and market conditions of the international business.

Answer

W. Robert Berkley, Jr. (Executive) confirmed that anecdotal information suggests strong rate momentum continues in the liability lines. He explained the disconnect between primary and reinsurance casualty by stating the reinsurance market needs more discipline and to charge more, similar to the past disconnect in the property market. On international operations, he noted that while markets vary, they include some of the company's highest-margin businesses with exceptional leadership navigating competitive environments.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen sought clarity on the net written premium outlook, contrasting the growth in short-tail lines with declines in liability lines, and asked about any notable prior year development from recent accident years.

Answer

Executive W. Berkley confirmed that exposure in the commercial auto line was shrinking due to underwriting discipline, impacting premium growth in liability lines. He noted that growth in the reinsurance segment's property lines reflects favorable market conditions, while casualty reinsurance is flat due to dissatisfaction with ceding commissions. CFO Richard Baio added that prior year development trends were consistent with previous commentary, with a continued focus on commercial auto liability.

Andrew Kligerman sought confirmation on Hadron's statutory surplus and committed capital, and later asked for more texture on the 50% loss ratio, including prior year development in property and whether pricing (up 4%) is outpacing loss costs. He also inquired about the MGA count and the pipeline for new members.

Answer

Jeff Radke, Accelerant's Co-founder and CEO, confirmed Hadron's group surplus approximates $200 million, emphasizing its solidity and conservative reinsurance practices, while reiterating the strategic intent to diversify away from Hadron as a percentage of total premium. Regarding the loss ratio, Jeff Radke explained that blended rates are up about 4% across the book, and pricing is generally keeping up with loss trends, especially given the small policy limits. He noted that favorable prior year development, particularly from lower-than-expected large property losses in the 2023 and 2024 underwriting years, contributed to the strong 50% loss ratio in Q3, but advised expecting low 50s going forward. Jay Green, Accelerant's CFO, stated that the pipeline had over $3 billion of annualized premium at the end of Q3, a record amount.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked for the ballpark figure of Hadron's statutory surplus and sought texture on the 50% gross loss ratio, including prior year development in property and whether pricing (up 4%) is ahead of loss costs. He also inquired about the MGA count and the pipeline.

Answer

Jeff Radke, Accelerant's Co-founder and CEO, stated that Hadron's group surplus approximates $200 million, affirming its solidity and conservative reinsurance practices, while reiterating the strategic goal of diversifying away from Hadron. Regarding the loss ratio, he explained that blended rates are up 4% globally, and pricing is generally keeping up with loss trends, especially given the small policy limits. He noted that the Q3 50% gross loss ratio benefited from atypically well-performing property portfolios from 2023 and 2024 underwriting years, with fewer large losses than expected, but advised expecting low 50s going forward. Jay Green, Accelerant's CFO, added that the pipeline had over $3 billion of annualized premium at quarter-end, a record amount.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen followed up on Allstate's AI initiatives, asking for a benchmark comparison against competitors to understand Allstate's relative position in developing advanced AI capabilities like ALLI.

Answer

CEO Tom Wilson acknowledged that competitors are likely using generative AI but stated that Allstate cannot speak to their strategic plans for redoing business models. He highlighted that Allstate's target state architecture from Transformative Growth, particularly its data management, has uniquely positioned them for agentic AI development.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen followed up on Allstate's AI initiatives, asking for a benchmark comparison against competitors to understand Allstate's relative position in developing advanced AI capabilities like ALLI.

Answer

CEO Tom Wilson acknowledged that competitors are likely using generative AI but stated that Allstate cannot speak to their strategic plans for redoing business models. He highlighted that Allstate's target state architecture from Transformative Growth, particularly its data management, has uniquely positioned them for agentic AI development.

Andrew Kligerman sought insights into the casualty reinsurance market, specifically how pricing is evolving given firm primary pricing but reported softening in reinsurance. He also asked for details on the slight favorable reserve development in the casualty segment, including specific vintages or product lines.

Answer

EVP and Chief Underwriting Officer David Marra explained that the market is responding to elevated loss trends, with most pricing increases occurring at the insurer level, benefiting reinsurers via quota share. He noted that ceding commissions have remained flat, and the company is optimizing its portfolio by repositioning lines. Marra described casualty and specialty reserves as stable, with the main contribution coming from float.

Andrew Kligerman sought insights into the casualty reinsurance market, specifically how pricing is evolving given firm primary pricing but reported softening in reinsurance. He also asked for details on the slight favorable reserve development in the casualty segment, including specific vintages or product lines.

Answer

EVP and Chief Underwriting Officer David Marra explained that the market is responding to elevated loss trends, with most pricing increases occurring at the insurer level, benefiting reinsurers via quota share. He noted that ceding commissions have remained flat, and the company is optimizing its portfolio by repositioning lines. Marra described casualty and specialty reserves as stable, with the main contribution coming from float.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the normalized growth rate for Arch Capital's reinsurance segment, excluding one-off deals and reinstatement premiums, and the outlook for future growth. He also sought management's perspective on the E&S premium outlook for the industry over the next few years and Arch's strategy for gaining market share in short-tail versus casualty lines.

Answer

François Morin (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer) estimated normalized reinsurance growth at a decrease of 3% to 4%, rather than the reported 10.7% decline. Nicolas Papadopoulo (CEO) indicated a similar outlook to insurance, with rate pressure on short-tail lines but opportunities in casualty. He noted a significant headwind from cedents retaining more business. For E&S, he described a 'tale of two stories,' expecting the casualty-driven shift to E&S to continue, while some short-tail business might return to the admitted market. Arch is optimistic about gaining share in casualty where rates are improving.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the normalized growth rate for Arch Capital's reinsurance segment, excluding one-off transactions and reinstatement premiums, and sought an outlook for future growth in that segment. He also asked for Arch's perspective on the E&S premium outlook for the industry over the next few years, particularly regarding potential declines, and Arch's strategy in short-tail versus casualty E&S.

Answer

CFO Francois Morin estimated normalized reinsurance growth in Q3 2025 would have been a decrease of 3-4%, rather than the reported 10.7% decline. CEO Nicolas Papadopoulo indicated a similar outlook for reinsurance as insurance, with rate pressure on short-tail lines but opportunities in casualty. He noted a significant headwind from cedents retaining more business, potentially shifting to excess of loss structures with better margins. For E&S, Mr. Papadopoulo expects the fundamental shift driven by casualty to continue, with more business moving to E&S, while some short-tail and cat-exposed business might return to the admitted market. Arch is optimistic about gaining share on the casualty side due to strong pricing and underwriting.

Andrew Kligerman asked for commentary on casualty reinsurance pricing versus primary rates and requested an update on the Midcorp integration process and its potential pivot to growth.

Answer

CEO Nicolas Papadopoulo explained that casualty reinsurance is mostly quota share, so pricing follows the primary market where rates exceed loss trends, but ample reinsurance supply is suppressing ceding commission adjustments. He and CFO & Treasurer François Morin noted the Midcorp integration is on track, with the book nearly rolled over, and the attractive pricing environment in the middle market presents a future growth opportunity.

Andrew Kligerman asked for details on reserving performance, particularly in commercial auto and other liability, and requested Arch's perspective on the current property and casualty cycles and the role of MGAs.

Answer

CFO François Morin described the casualty reserving picture as 'flattish' and comfortable, though it's too early to 'call it victory.' Executive Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo explained that the property reinsurance market remains disciplined, but E&S property is seeing significant rate pressure from MGAs re-entering with large capacity. He believes the casualty market has a longer runway before becoming more competitive.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities asked for a deeper dive into the E&S casualty areas where Arch is growing, including rate changes, and questioned why the company is not concerned about the risks in high-layer excess casualty.

Answer

Executive Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo described the growth area as middle-to-high excess E&S liability, where Arch's experience allows it to selectively underwrite risks still achieving double-digit rate increases. He explained that the market's reaction to severity is to cut limits, which makes portfolio loss ratios more stable and improves pricing adequacy as more carriers are needed to complete towers, mitigating the risk of large individual losses.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked for clarification on the run-rate impact of the MidCorp acquisition on the insurance segment's loss ratio and inquired about the rate environment versus loss cost trends in key lines like casualty and property.

Answer

Executive François Morin stated that the MidCorp business is expected to be breakeven in its first year, which will slightly increase the segment's combined ratio, but he refrained from providing a long-term run rate. CEO Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo added that in casualty, rates are outpacing trends, creating growth opportunities, while E&S property rates are flattening due to increased competition, though the line remains attractive.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the mix of the net reserve release, specifically between short-tail and casualty lines and casualty vintage, the number of competitors in the micro and small E&S market compared to three years ago, and to quantify property rate changes from early Q2 to the current quarter.

Answer

Michael Kehoe, CEO and Chairman, indicated that most reserve releases have disproportionately come from first-party/short-tail business like property. He also noted an increase in competitors, including hundreds of MGAs and more fronting companies, reflecting increased capital. Brian Haney, President and COO, estimated property rate declines were double-digits in Q2 and are now high single-digits, expecting normalization.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen asked for a breakdown of the $10 million (3.7%) net reserve release, specifically the mix between short-tail and casualty lines, and the vintage on the casualty side. He also inquired about the increase in competitors in the micro and small E&S market over the last three years, including the rise of MGAs and fronting companies. Lastly, he sought specific numbers to quantify the 'stabilizing' or 'moderating' property rate declines, comparing early Q2 rates to current rates.

Answer

Michael Kehoe, CEO and Chairman, stated that most of the reserve releases over the last couple of quarters and years have disproportionately come from Kinsale's first-party, short-tail business, such as property. He noted an increase in competitors, including hundreds of new MGAs and a significant rise in fronting companies, reflecting substantial capital inflow into the industry. Brian Haney, President and COO, estimated property rates were declining at double-digit rates in Q2 and are now in the high single digits down, indicating an inflection point and expected normalization. Mr. Kehoe clarified that rates are deteriorating at a slower rate, not improving.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the impact of competition from small to mid-sized E&S startups on pricing and whether the company's ceding ratio could decline significantly over the long term.

Answer

President & COO Brian Haney stated that small startup carriers are having little effect on the market, as their impact is dwarfed by the large premium volume from MGA and fronting companies. Chairman & CEO Michael Kehoe explained that the future ceding ratio is a function of business mix, as more premium is ceded on property business with significant catastrophe exposure, making a specific long-term target difficult to predict.

Andrew Kligerman questioned the future cadence of the combined ratio, asking if it could drift into the low 80s due to competition. He also asked for the current number of underwriting verticals and the company's strategy for adding new ones.

Answer

CEO Michael Kehoe acknowledged that a combined ratio in the low 80s is 'certainly possible' as the company balances profitability with growth to maximize shareholder value. He stated they currently have 26 underwriting verticals, which are organizational structures to foster expertise. He clarified that expansion into new product lines is methodical and incremental to ensure underwriting discipline, rather than aiming for extraordinary first-year growth.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the new worksite enrollment platform and recruiting CRM, asking for details on their functionality, differentiation, and anticipated impact on agent productivity and recruiting. He also asked about direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales growth versus premium decline, policy retention, and the conservatism of 2026 DTC sales guidance.

Answer

Co-CEO Matthew Darden explained that the new worksite enrollment platform for Liberty National Life enhances needs-based analysis for agents, leading to over 20% increase in premium production per worksite. The recruiting CRM centralizes data for agency owners, providing real-time insights into the recruiting pipeline. Regarding DTC, Darden noted that past sales declines impacted premium, but recent strong sales growth (up 13%) is expected to reverse this trend. He described the 2026 guidance as cautiously optimistic given recent strong performance. Co-CEO Frank Svoboda added that DTC lapse rates are consistent with long-term averages, and improved sales conversion allows for increased marketing spend, benefiting both DTC and agency channels.

Andrew Kligerman asked for more details on Globe Life's new worksite enrollment platform and recruiting CRM, inquiring how these technologies work, their differentiating features, and their anticipated impact on agent productivity and recruiting. He also questioned the direct-to-consumer channel's sales growth versus premium decline, policy retention, and the conservative low single-digit sales projection for the next year.

Answer

Matthew Darden, Co-CEO, explained that the new worksite enrollment platform for Liberty National Life provides agents with enhanced tools for needs-based analysis, leading to a significant increase in premium production per worksite and per sale in early rollouts. The enterprise-wide recruiting CRM will centralize data for real-time pipeline management, improving conversion points for new recruits. Regarding direct-to-consumer, Darden noted that recent sales declines are impacting premium growth, but new technology is improving conversion of inquiries to sales without changing risk profiles, allowing for increased advertising spend and enterprise-wide sales growth. Frank Svoboda, Co-CEO, added that DTC lapse rates are consistent with long-term averages, and premium income is expected to grow in 2026 with continued sales growth.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Securities asked for the basis of confidence in the life insurance sales forecast for the second half of the year, given the slight downward revision despite strong agent growth. He also questioned if Medicare Supplement sales could face pressure if the Medicare Advantage market stabilizes.

Answer

Co-Chairman & Co-CEO J. Matthew Darden explained that the strong agent count growth is a positive long-term indicator for sales, with the current guidance revision reflecting a slight delay in new agent productivity. On Medicare Supplement, Darden noted that while they have benefited from Medicare Advantage disruption, a distinct market segment values MedSupp policies for their choice, which should sustain demand.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities questioned the slightly lowered life insurance sales guidance despite strong agent count growth, seeking confidence in a second-half rebound. He also asked if the recent strength in Medicare Supplement sales, driven by disruption in the Medicare Advantage market, could face pressure if the MA market stabilizes.

Answer

Co-Chairman & Co-CEO J. Matthew Darden explained the sales guidance revision reflects a timing delay, as new agent onboarding temporarily impacts productivity, but strong agent growth is a positive long-term indicator for sales. He acknowledged that while the Med Supp market ebbs and flows with Medicare Advantage trends, a consistent segment of the population values Med Supp policies, and the large in-force block supports stable premium growth.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Securities asked for the rationale behind the slightly lowered life insurance sales guidance despite strong agent count growth, and questioned whether Medicare Supplement sales could face pressure if the Medicare Advantage market stabilizes.

Answer

Co-Chairman & Co-CEO J. Matthew Darden clarified that the revised sales guidance reflects a short-term timing lag as a large number of new agents get up to speed. He affirmed that strong agent count growth is a positive long-term indicator for sales. Regarding Medicare Supplement, Darden stated that while there are market ebbs and flows, a strong consumer segment will always value the choice offered by MedSupp policies, supporting continued demand.

Andrew Kligerman requested a more granular timeline for health margin normalization, color on the drivers of elevated life insurance lapses, and clarification on a $4.8 million legal proceedings expense.

Answer

Co-CEO Frank Svoboda projected UAGA margins of 5-7% for the year but noted a full normalization might take until 2027. CFO Thomas Kalmbach and Svoboda attributed higher life lapses to a tick-up in late 2024 but see stabilization ahead. Kalmbach clarified the legal expense was for a settlement unrelated to the DOJ/SEC matters and costs related to a short-seller report.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities inquired about the long-term impact of the virtual sales model at American Income and the sustainability of the high life underwriting margin, particularly the contribution from the direct-to-consumer segment.

Answer

Co-CEO James Darden explained that the virtual model has been highly beneficial for recruiting and sales efficiency, attracting new agents and appealing to consumers, and he sees this as a sustainable new normal. Co-CEO Frank Svoboda confirmed the direct-to-consumer channel has seen favorable mortality developments, contributing to the strong margin. He noted that while recent trends are positive, the 2025 guidance range accounts for potential fluctuations in mortality.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked about the sustainability of the robust agent count growth across key divisions and inquired about the company's ability to reprice its Medicare Supplement business to address margin pressures.

Answer

Co-CEO James Darden expressed confidence in the sustainability of agent count growth, attributing it to a strong and growing middle management pipeline, which he called a leading indicator for future sales. CFO Thomas Kalmbach explained that the company annually reviews medical trends and files for rate increases on its Medigap business with regulators, a process they are currently undertaking for 2025. Co-CEO Frank Svoboda added that the business must adhere to a 65% minimum loss ratio over time, which guides their repricing actions.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen inquired about the run rate for Ategrity's overall expense ratio, particularly operating and acquisition costs, in the context of the 90% combined ratio guidance, and the nature of the company's distribution network expansion.

Answer

CEO Justin Cohen confirmed the expense ratio estimate is close, noting small commission benefits, the quota share rolling off, and a slight Q4 operating expense tick-up due to fee adjustments, while emphasizing long-term operating leverage. President and Chief Underwriting Officer Chris Schenk detailed broad-based distribution growth, including partners in unique geographies like the Midwest, digital native brokers, and established brokers valuing straightforward offerings. Management also discussed property pricing, noting mid to high single-digit rate increases and potential hardening in the mid-space due to evolving lending requirements and building codes.

Andrew Kligerman asked for clarification on the expected run rate for the overall expense ratio in Q4, inquired about the nature of Ategrity's distribution network expansion, and sought the company's outlook on pricing in the small business and lower-end mid-market.

Answer

Justin Cohen (CEO) confirmed the expense ratio estimate is close, noting future commission benefits and a Q4 operating expense tick-up due to fee adjustments. Chris Schenk (President and Chief Underwriting Officer) described distribution expansion as broad-based, attracting digital-native and established brokers, and emphasized technical pricing and coverage quality driving demand in the mid-market, potentially leading to hardening due to lending requirements.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the drivers of the modest property premium growth, seeking to clarify the role of pricing versus exposure management, the anticipated impact of tariffs, and whether Q2's growth is indicative of future quarters.

Answer

President & CUO Chris Schenk clarified that property rates increased in the low teens, with slower growth resulting from a deliberate choice to prioritize pricing discipline. CEO Justin Cohen added that a proactive stance on tariffs and reduced coastal exposure also tempered growth but will benefit future catastrophe costs. Cohen reaffirmed the full-year guidance for mid-to-high 20s GWP growth.

Andrew Kligerman asked about current trends in home sales and prices and their impact on written premium, and sought clarification on the expected growth trajectory for franchise producer counts given recent sequential and year-over-year increases.

Answer

Mark Jones (CFO and COO) noted depressed housing activity but highlighted Goosehead's ability to expand lead sources due to low market share. Mark Miller (President and CEO) added that the reentry of insurance into the market is a positive accelerator. Mark Jones further explained that while operating franchise counts are expected to decline, the focus is on quality, with acquiring agencies being significantly more productive, leading to consistent producer count growth and expanding producers per franchise.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the impact of current home sales and prices on Goosehead's written premium, and sought clarification on the expected growth trajectory for franchise producer counts for the remainder of the year and into next year.

Answer

Mark Jones (CFO and COO) stated that housing activity remains depressed but Goosehead's low market share allows for continued lead source expansion. He noted that acquiring agencies are 3x more productive, driving quality over quantity in producer growth. Mark Miller (President and CEO) added that the reentry of insurance into the market is a significant positive. Mark Jones also mentioned that operating franchise count is expected to decline for 12-18 months, but producer count will continue to grow.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen questioned the slight sequential decline in franchise producers, the year-over-year decrease in certain agent productivity metrics, and the implications of the drop in premium retention.

Answer

President & CEO Mark Miller and CFO Mark Jones Jr. attributed the producer count dip to franchise consolidations, which they view as a net positive for the ecosystem. They explained that productivity metrics were affected by a lower tenure mix for new corporate agents and a different mix of franchise launches compared to the prior year. The premium retention decline was linked to moderating premium rate increases, while underlying client retention is improving.

Andrew Kligerman questioned why the 2025 written premium growth guidance of 22-28% isn't higher given producer growth trends. He also asked about the outlook for home sales and if Goosehead would consider starting its own E&S wholesale brokerage.

Answer

CFO Mark Jones Jr. attributed the conservative premium guidance to uncertainty around the interplay between slowing pricing tailwinds and the pace of client retention recovery. He noted positive trends in lead flow and referral partner activations. Regarding E&S, he stated that Goosehead prefers to focus on its core distribution business rather than get distracted by building a wholesale operation, which would serve a small portion of its business.

Andrew Kligerman questioned the sustainability of the strong Q3 EBITDA margin expansion and asked for the reasons behind the high quality of the latest corporate agent recruiting class.

Answer

CFO Mark Jones Jr. reiterated the commitment to annual margin expansion, excluding contingencies, and expects strong margin improvement to continue in Q4. CEO Mark Miller and CFO Mark Jones Jr. attributed the high-quality agent class to a more rigorous and expanded college recruiting process, higher standards, and revamped training programs, which have proven effective even in a challenging market.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities asked about pricing trends, noting that gross written premium and policies in force grew at a similar rate. He also inquired about customer segmentation, the unique aspects of Root's pricing algorithms that led to a 20% LTV improvement, and the future direction of the net expense ratio.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Alex Timm explained that Root is currently price-adequate and is not taking significant rate increases, allowing loss cost trends to catch up to its strong loss ratio performance. He attributed the 20% LTV improvement to a new pricing model that enhances segmentation across all customer types (standard, non-standard, preferred), stemming from the company's native AI and machine learning foundation. CFO Megan Binkley stated that the expense ratio will see pressure from targeted investments in technology and product, which could add a couple of points to the gross expense ratio in the near term.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen followed up on the Nationwide-Markel transaction, asking about confidence in renewing the acquired book, the nature of the expanded relationship with Markel, the property rate decline assumptions in guidance, and the reason for the year-over-year increase in the G&A expense ratio.

Answer

Founder & Executive Chairman Patrick Ryan expressed high confidence in renewing and improving the Markel reinsurance book, citing the quality of the incoming team. CEO Timothy Turner affirmed the strong, long-standing trading relationship with Markel. CFO Janice Hamilton confirmed the guidance assumes property rate declines of 20-30% continue. She attributed the higher G&A ratio to strategic investments in talent and technology, which are accounted for differently than other cost-saving initiatives.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the sustainability of inorganic revenue growth from M&A and the current deal pipeline. He also asked about the scalability of the recent USQRisk acquisition and the strategy to grow its small revenue base.

Answer

CEO Tim Turner confirmed the M&A pipeline is 'very, very robust' with opportunities of all sizes. Executive Chairman Patrick Ryan elaborated that the USQRisk acquisition is highly strategic, deepening an alliance with Nationwide Mutual and adding significant intellectual capital through new, highly skilled talent. While declining to project a specific growth rate for USQRisk, Mr. Ryan expressed strong enthusiasm for its potential to expand the company's total addressable market and add a 'new cylinder' to its growth engine.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked for a deeper explanation of the net premium retention rate, specifically the impact from the captives business and the long-term outlook for the metric. He also asked which areas of the casualty business Skyward finds attractive for growth.

Answer

CEO Andrew Robinson detailed that the lower retention is driven by captives (where the captive itself retains the primary layer) and the Global Property book (which uses significant quota share and facultative reinsurance). He estimated that without these factors, the underlying retention would be in the low 80s. For casualty growth, he highlighted opportunities in E&S and Energy, emphasizing a selective approach to avoid classes with the highest loss inflation trends.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen requested more detail on the Global Agriculture business, including its reinsurance structure, key international markets, and returns. He also asked about the pricing environment in global property and the risk of further sharp declines.

Answer

CEO Andrew Robinson, while being intentionally guarded for competitive reasons, shared that the Global Ag portfolio includes markets like Canada, Brazil, and China, with approximately 90% of its exposure being quota share. Regarding global property, he acknowledged that pricing is down high-single-digits but stated the company is defending its book with over 95% account retention by writing over larger stretches and leveraging its increased reinsurance capacity, expressing confidence in maintaining strong returns.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked about the sources of growth within the Programs and Captives divisions, and also inquired about growth in excess liability.

Answer

CEO Andrew Robinson explained that growth in Programs is in specific niches, not broad liability. He clarified that excess liability is written with short limits ($5M) and mostly over their own primary. He attributed the strong 43% growth in Captives primarily to an innovative property captive for automotive dealers developed with an insurtech partner.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities inquired about the capital and proceeds from placing the reinsurance business into runoff, and the potential uses for the freed-up cash. He also asked for details on the Programs and Solutions segment, particularly the MGA-written portion and its performance.

Answer

CFO Brian Costanzo explained that capital relief from the reinsurance runoff will be gradual, but the investments backing the reserves will continue generating returns. CEO Tom Gaynor added that this creates future investment flexibility. Regarding the Programs and Solutions segment, Costanzo noted that about one-third of its premium is from delegated underwriting programs. Simon Wilson, CEO of Markel Insurance, emphasized their selective, long-term partnership approach in this area, which he sees as a growth sector.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities inquired about the capital and proceeds from placing the reinsurance business into runoff, the potential use of the freed-up cash, and details on the Programs and Solutions segment, particularly the MGA-written portion and its performance.

Answer

CFO Brian Costanzo explained that capital relief from the reinsurance exit will be gradual as reserves run down, but the investments backing them will continue to generate returns. He declined to disclose the deal's financial terms. CEO Tom Gayner added that diminishing capital requirements will create more investment flexibility. Markel Insurance CEO Simon Wilson noted they retain the option for an earlier capital release via a market deal. Regarding the Programs segment, Costanzo stated about a third of its premium comes from delegated underwriting and has performed well. Wilson emphasized their selective, long-term partnership approach in what he sees as a growing market sector.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities inquired about the drivers of the 7.2% favorable prior year development, the potential for improvement in the 35.8% expense ratio, the company's strategy for data, analytics, and AI, and the reasons for the 1% revenue decline in the Ventures business.

Answer

CFO Brian Costanzo attributed the favorable development to a benign quarter combined with a prudent reserving philosophy. On the expense ratio, Costanzo and CEO of Markel Insurance Simon Wilson acknowledged it was high due to investments and lower earned premium but expect improvement from simplification and greater P&L accountability. Wilson detailed significant investments in data and analytics to improve pricing and speed, while noting the Guidewire implementation is focused on enhancing the claims process. Regarding Ventures, CEO Tom Gayner explained the revenue dip was due to tough comparisons against a strong prior-year quarter, particularly in transportation and construction, and that business remains at a good level.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the specific sources of the 5.2 points of favorable prior year development, particularly in casualty lines, and asked if the premium mix was shifting materially to short-tail lines. He also followed up on the elevated expense ratio and the intrinsic value calculation's link to incentive compensation.

Answer

Executive Thomas Gayner reiterated the cultural goal of redundant reserves. An executive clarified that net casualty development was fairly flat, with takedowns in international professional lines offset by adverse development in U.S. D&O. Executive Jeremy Noble stated the business mix has not materially changed and remains weighted to longer-tail lines. Noble also explained the Q4 expense ratio spike was due to non-recurring contingent commissions and that the company aims for a couple of points of improvement over 3-5 years. Gayner confirmed incentive comp is based on a 5-year rolling average, with details in the proxy.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen questioned the potential for material performance fees from Nephila, asked if the reinsurance segment's loss ratio could normalize, and inquired if the current Markel Ventures EBITDA represents a new baseline.

Answer

Jeremy Noble, President of Insurance Operations, stated that Nephila's performance fees would be modest due to hedging and catastrophe activity. He acknowledged the reinsurance segment's weak results, driven by the public entity exit, but expects profitability to improve over time. CEO Tom Gayner strongly cautioned against using a single quarter's Ventures EBITDA as a baseline, emphasizing the importance of 5-year averages to understand performance.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen questioned the elevated underwriting expense ratio in the Insurance segment, asking for the outlook and potential for improvement. He also asked for clarification on the returns being generated by the A&H and property cat businesses, inferring a >25% return for the latter.

Answer

Jim Williamson, President & CEO, acknowledged the expense ratio pressure is due to two factors: the deliberate runoff of casualty business and investments to fuel the high-performing international business. He expressed confidence it will improve with scale. Williamson confirmed property cat returns are 'absolutely' north of 25% in the current market. He stated that the A&H business, like any growing line, is expected to generate returns well above the group's mid-teens TSR threshold.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen requested an update on the progress toward NFP revenue and cost synergy targets for 2026 and asked about the dynamic between growth in ILS and facultative placements versus the traditional treaty reinsurance business.

Answer

CFO Edmund Reese confirmed Aon is confident in meeting its NFP synergy targets, citing strong producer retention and specific initiatives like transitioning wholesale business to Aon's platform. CEO Greg Case explained that reinsurance solutions like ILS, facultative, and treaty are complementary, client-focused tools rather than competing products, highlighting how reinsurance analytics are amplifying opportunities in the commercial risk space.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked for an update on NFP acquisition synergies and the outlook for 2026, and also questioned the market dynamic between treaty reinsurance and the growing ILS and facultative placement businesses.

Answer

CEO Greg Case stated that the NFP integration has exceeded expectations, driven by an "independent and connected" strategy. CFO Edmund Reese confirmed confidence in the $80 million synergy target for 2025 and $175 million for 2026. On reinsurance, Case explained that ILS, facultative, and treaty are complementary client-oriented solutions, not competing products, integrated within the broader Risk Capital strategy to create new demand, citing the new "Surge Stop Loss" cyber product as an example.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about Aon's M&A strategy one year after the NFP acquisition, including the pipeline and potential for another large deal. He also asked for a granular breakdown of the drivers behind Commercial Risk's 5% organic growth, specifically the impact of pricing versus exposures, and the basis for Aon's confidence in sustaining this growth.

Answer

CEO Gregory Case stated that the NFP integration has been terrific and that Aon will continue its programmatic M&A approach in the middle market. CFO Edmund Reese clarified that the primary capital allocation objective for 2025 is debt paydown to their target leverage ratio, while still pursuing $45M-$60M in tuck-in M&A via NFP. Regarding Commercial Risk, Mr. Case attributed the strong performance to new business wins and retention driven by the 3x3 plan and Risk Analyzers, rather than market pricing, which he described as generally buyer-friendly with some softness.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the NFP integration, including its M&A capacity for another large deal, and questioned the growth drivers for Reinsurance Solutions, particularly the role of the Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) market.

Answer

President Eric Andersen and CEO Gregory Case stated that the NFP integration has exceeded expectations and its M&A pipeline is consistent with its historical performance. Regarding reinsurance, Andersen and CFO Edmund Reese explained that while ILS is a growing boutique business, the segment's overall strength is broad-based, stemming from treaty placements, technology services, and strong client retention.

Andrew Kligerman inquired about the nature of recent talent acquisitions in Commercial Risk and the sustainability of double-digit growth in international Health Solutions.

Answer

CEO Gregory Case, President Eric Andersen, and CFO Edmund Reese collectively addressed the questions. They confirmed the hiring of high-level talent in priority areas like construction and energy, attracted by Aon's advanced analytics. These hires are expected to contribute to revenue growth within 12-18 months. Regarding Health Solutions, they highlighted strong global demand driven by pressures on nationalized health systems and multinational clients seeking integrated benefits management, affirming it as a significant and sustainable growth opportunity.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the future trajectory of capital deployment, the performance of the recently acquired Carlyle business, the stock's performance relative to strong results, potential M&A interest, and the mix of inbound policy sources.

Answer

CEO Jay Jackson stated that future capital deployment will be driven by policyholder and investor demand. He reported a seamless integration of the Carlyle acquisition with strong global capital-raising activity. Regarding the stock, Jackson expressed confidence that continued execution will lead to a fair valuation. He noted Abacus is more focused on being an acquirer than a target. He broke down the policy origination mix as approximately 40% direct-to-consumer, 40% financial advisors, and 20% brokerage.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the outlook for EBITDA margins in 2025, the expected growth trajectory for the technology services segment, and whether the capital deployed metric would remain steady while other areas drive the upside in the 2025 adjusted net income guidance.

Answer

CEO Jay Jackson reiterated a target for EBITDA margins above 50%, noting that while there can be quarterly fluctuations, he expects more consistency long-term as fee-related earnings grow. He projected that the ABL Tech division, now a year old, is on track to be material to earnings by summer 2026. Jackson also confirmed that the guidance assumes steady capital deployment, with the upside driven by other strategic revenue areas.

Inquired about the outlook for active management revenue, the performance of smaller revenue lines like portfolio servicing and origination, and the status of the Carlisle acquisition.

Answer

The executive expressed a positive outlook for active management revenue, citing strong demand and favorable interest rates. The dip in servicing revenue was explained by a client winding down a portfolio, with growth expected from the Carlisle acquisition. Lower origination revenue was attributed to a strategic shift towards holding more policies on the balance sheet. The Carlisle deal is expected to close in Q4.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen questioned the future trajectory of active management revenue and sought clarification on the recent declines in portfolio servicing and origination revenues.

Answer

CEO Jay Jackson stated that strong institutional demand for life settlement assets, supported by a favorable interest rate environment, should continue to drive active management revenue. He explained that portfolio servicing revenue can fluctuate with client activity but expects the pending Carlisle acquisition to be a significant future contributor. Jackson clarified that the decline in origination revenue is an expected result of the company holding more policies on its balance sheet rather than acting as a broker for a fee.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen asked for an outlook on active management revenue for the next four quarters and sought clarification on the performance of the portfolio servicing and origination revenue lines.

Answer

CEO Jay Jackson explained that strong institutional demand for life settlement assets, supported by a favorable interest rate environment, is expected to continue driving active management revenue. Regarding other revenue lines, he noted that portfolio servicing revenue can fluctuate but is expected to grow following the Carlisle acquisition. He clarified that origination revenue declined because Abacus is now holding more policies on its balance sheet to sell later, rather than immediately originating them for a fee, which is an expected outcome of deploying more of its own capital.

Andrew Kligerman requested clarification on the marketplace mix dynamics, the state of carrier competition, and the rationale for the write-down of the Customer Helper Team (CHT) acquisition.

Answer

Executive Steven Yi explained that as the P&C recovery broadens, more activity will flow to the open exchange. He reiterated that several top carriers are still underinvesting, signaling significant growth runway. Executive Patrick Thompson stated the CHT acquisition fell short of expectations, leading to the sunsetting of its social marketing activities and a corresponding intangible asset write-off.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities asked about the competitive environment outside of California, current frequency and severity trends, the amount of rate yet to be earned, and growth in states beyond the top three.

Answer

EVP and President of Kemper Auto Matthew Hunton described the non-California market as returning to normal competitive levels. EVP and CFO Bradley Camden noted that loss trends were performing as expected, with slightly better frequency and severity in the mid-to-high single digits. Camden advised focusing on PIF growth over earned rate, as profitability targets are already being met, and identified Illinois, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon as other areas of focus for growth.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Securities sought confirmation on the outlook for accelerating year-over-year PIF growth, asked if recent sequential growth was indicative of 2025 trends, questioned the drivers of strong growth in 'other' states, and inquired about the earned rate outlook for the first half of 2025.

Answer

CEO Joseph Lacher confirmed that year-over-year PIF growth should continue to improve through mid-2025. He cautioned that Q4's 1.8% sequential growth was a seasonally low figure and expects 'way higher' growth in Q1 and Q2. President of Kemper Auto Matt Hunton added color on market dynamics, noting Florida is normalizing while Texas is being repositioned for growth. CFO Bradley Camden and CEO Joseph Lacher advised that earned rate and loss trends should be viewed as relatively equal, as the California minimum limit increase will distort the earned rate metric without affecting margins.

Andrew Kligerman of TD Cowen asked about the expected timeline for the Specialty Auto combined ratio to normalize from its low 91% level to the 93-95% range, the outlook for commercial auto, and the amount of rate left to earn in.

Answer

CEO Joseph Lacher stated the combined ratio will migrate to the 93-95% range over the next 4-5 quarters as new business growth normalizes. President of Kemper Auto Matthew Hunton added that commercial auto growth is expected to continue. Lacher noted future rate would offset inflation, while CFO Bradley Camden provided a near-term rate expectation of 2-3 points for Q4.

Andrew Kligerman sought clarification on management's 'overshoot' comment regarding the combined ratio, the outlook for low single-digit sequential PIF growth in the second half of the year despite seasonality, and the remaining earned rate expected for 2024.

Answer

Executive Joseph Lacher clarified that 'overshoot' referred to the combined ratio improving to a level better than the long-term target (e.g., 90%), from which it will normalize back toward the 96% ceiling. He confirmed the expectation for low single-digit sequential PIF growth in Q3 and Q4. Lacher also detailed the earned rate forecast, with about 5 points expected in Q3 and 2-3 points in Q4, totaling 7-8 points for the second half of the year.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the drivers of increased growth spend, particularly online ad pricing. He also questioned if Lemonade's AI has leveled the playing field against larger competitors and inquired about the direction of rates from recent filings.

Answer

CFO Timothy Bixby noted that ad cost efficiency is stable, with a recent lean-in to brand spend. CEO Daniel Schreiber asserted that Lemonade's integrated AI and data infrastructure provides a competitive advantage over incumbents with siloed systems. He clarified that recent rate filings are focused on refining pricing precision using telematics, not just raising overall rates.

Asked for confirmation that the specialization strategy remains a key part of the plan, what is meant by expanding it to new geographies, and whether this implies robust net hiring. He also inquired if there is still a growth tailwind from producers hired over the last few years.

Answer

The specialization strategy is a key growth driver and will be expanded into new geographies based on local market dynamics and client demand. The recent hiring of Pat Donnelly is intended to accelerate this strategy in North America. While there is continued productivity improvement expected from recent hires, the company's competitive growth is attributed to the efforts of all colleagues and the overall strategy, not just new hires.

Andrew Kligerman asked about the disconnect between strong primary casualty pricing and reported softness in casualty reinsurance, and also questioned why competitors remain aggressive in financial lines.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Evan G. Greenberg explained that Chubb sees only selective, opportunistic pockets in casualty reinsurance and has been shrinking its book for years. Regarding financial lines, he suggested competitors are reacting to favorable prior-year results while ignoring that current accident year loss trends are reverting to the mean and pressuring margins, a trend Chubb is patiently navigating.

Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen asked about the profitability and outlook for the D&O business within financial lines and questioned if exceptional underlying combined ratios could erode due to global competition.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Evan G. Greenberg confirmed they are writing D&O profitably, leveraging their brand strength, especially in primary layers. He pushed back on focusing on ex-cat results, arguing the published combined ratio is the key metric. He noted that while industry returns are decent, they are not 'off the charts,' and relentless loss trends necessitate ongoing rate increases to maintain profitability.

Andrew Kligerman highlighted the strong but decelerating growth in the Risk & Insurance Services (RIS) segment and asked for the basis of management's confidence that growth will remain at 'mid-single-digit or better.' He also asked for color on MMA's growth rate relative to large corporate business.

Answer

President and CEO John Doyle cited several factors for his confidence: a supportive macro and elevated risk environment, ongoing investments in capabilities like McGriff, a strategic shift toward faster-growing segments, and improved internal collaboration. While he did not quantify the difference, he described the MMA business as a 'more consistent growth business' for the company over time.