Andrew Lazar

Andrew Lazar asked about Post's capital allocation strategy, specifically the balance between aggressive stock buybacks and M&A activity, given recent drops in market valuations for small-cap growth-oriented food companies. He also inquired if the recent return of the cereal category to historical low single-digit declines is due to value-seeking behavior or a more enduring trend.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Vitale indicated that changing market multiples are making M&A a more interesting measure. COO Nico Catoggio attributed the cereal category's recent improvement to changes in SNAP benefits and trade-down from other categories, noting similar trends in peanut butter, but stated more months are needed to confirm a lasting change.

Andrew Lazar asked about Post Holdings' capital allocation strategy, specifically comparing aggressive share buybacks to potential M&A activity given recent drops in market valuations for small-cap growth-oriented food companies. He also inquired about the cereal category's recent return to historical low single-digit declines and whether this trend is due to value-seeking behavior or something more enduring.

Answer

Rob Vitale, President and CEO, indicated that changing market multiples are making M&A a more interesting measure. Nico Catoggio, COO, attributed the cereal category's recent improvement to changes in SNAP benefits and a trade-down from other categories, noting similar trends in peanut butter, but emphasized the need for more data to confirm a sustained change.

Andrew Lazar asked about Post Holdings' capital allocation strategy, specifically comparing M&A opportunities versus share buybacks in the context of industry volume challenges and potential structural versus cyclical weakness. He also inquired about further cost actions in the ready-to-eat cereal segment if category declines persist.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Vitale explained that the company does not differentiate between M&A and buybacks, instead comparing them based on potential risk-return. He noted that the cost of capital has changed dramatically, influencing a more thoughtful strategy focused on being 'better' rather than just 'bigger.' Regarding cereal costs, Mr. Vitale stated that while additional cost reduction opportunities exist, their magnitude is smaller after major actions like plant closures, with current focus on line optimization.

Andrew Lazar asked about Post Holdings' capital allocation strategy, specifically comparing M&A opportunities versus share buybacks in the context of industry volume challenges and potential structural versus cyclical weakness. He also inquired about further cost actions in the ready-to-eat cereal segment if category declines persist.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Vitale explained that the company does not differentiate between M&A and buybacks, instead comparing them based on potential risk-return. He noted that the cost of capital has changed dramatically, influencing a more thoughtful strategy focused on being 'better' rather than just 'bigger.' Regarding cereal costs, Mr. Vitale stated that while additional cost reduction opportunities exist, their magnitude is smaller after major actions like plant closures, with current focus on line optimization.

Andrew Lazar asked for an overview of the key factors influencing the fiscal 2026 outlook and questioned the reasons behind private label cereal's underperformance compared to branded products.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Vitale confirmed the analyst's summary of fiscal 2026 factors was accurate, stating that normalizing the Foodservice business for Avian Influenza impacts would align it with their growth algorithm. Regarding private label cereal, Vitale noted the trend was puzzling but suggested that deep promotions on branded items might be narrowing the price gap. CFO Matt Mainer added that Post's private label business has a significant concentration with Walmart, which could also be a contributing factor to the trend.

Andrew Lazar asked for clarification on the normalized EBITDA run-rate for the Foodservice segment post-avian influenza and whether recent plant closures in the cereal business could sustain profitability amid significant category volume declines.

Answer

An executive, likely COO Jeff Zadoks, stated that the Foodservice EBITDA run-rate is likely higher than the previous $105 million baseline but requires a period of stability to determine a new normal. He confirmed the objective of plant closures is to maintain profitability, but noted that sustained category declines of 4-5% would make this challenging, expressing hope for a return to more modest 1-2% declines long-term.

Andrew Lazar asked about the likelihood of a transformational M&A deal given compressed industry valuations and whether recent share repurchases would preclude such a transaction. He also inquired about the potential for supply chain optimization in the pet food segment.

Answer

COO Jeff Zadoks confirmed that Post is well-positioned to consider M&A of any size, emphasizing that valuation and synergy potential are the key drivers, not recent buybacks. Regarding the pet food supply chain, Zadoks stated the primary focus is on insourcing and executing the Nutrish relaunch, with further optimization being a longer-term consideration.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the point at which top-line volume declines become a concern for enabling future EBITDA growth and asked for insights into private label volume trends within Post's categories.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Vitale explained that Post aggressively manages out low-margin business and has significant flexibility to optimize its manufacturing network before volume declines would negatively impact leverage. He stated that unlike other reports, Post has not seen erosion in private label penetration in its categories, noting that private label has actually grown in cereal. He anticipates a reversion to normalized volume trends as the economic environment stabilizes.

Andrew Lazar asked about the risk of price deflation in the chocolate category due to the recent precipitous decline in cocoa commodity prices, and how Hershey accounts for this possibility in its guidance. He also inquired about the more favorable-than-anticipated elasticity, its causes, and if the company's plan incorporates flexibility for potential increases in elasticity.

Answer

Kirk Tanner (President and CEO) explained that competitors are sophisticated and hedged, and private label remains small in the U.S. He noted that Hershey's 2025 pricing does not fully cover 2026 cocoa cost inflation, indicating a recovery path while investing in growth. Steve Voskuil (SVP and CFO) added that while current elasticities are favorable, they plan for around 0.8 to account for fluctuations and ongoing price-pack changes, aiming to outperform this with strong activation. Kirk also highlighted 18% growth in the snacks business in Q4 on double-digit volume.

Andrew Lazar asked about the risk of price deflation in the chocolate category due to the recent precipitous decline in cocoa commodity prices, and how Hershey accounts for this possibility in its guidance. He also inquired about the favorable elasticity observed so far, what contributes to this outcome, and if the company's plan includes flexibility should elasticity increase.

Answer

CEO Kirk Tanner explained that competitors are sophisticated and likely hedged, and private label remains small. He emphasized that Hershey's 2025 pricing does not fully cover 2026 cocoa cost inflation, and the company is on a recovery path while investing in growth. He noted that 75% of the portfolio is under $4, maintaining affordability. SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil added that while current elasticities are favorable, the company plans for around 0.8 to account for fluctuations and remaining price/pack changes, with a goal to do better through strong activation and investment.

Andrew Lazar asked about the company's 2026 outlook, specifically regarding expectations for a non-algorithm top and bottom line year, given moderating cocoa costs, lowered tariff estimates, and accelerating base momentum. He also inquired about balancing these factors against expectations for significant year-over-year EPS growth and the current elasticity trends.

Answer

CEO Kirk Tanner stated that success in 2026 means growing with or ahead of the category while building back margin over a few years, aiming for the long-term algorithm of 2% to 4% revenue growth. He noted potential for some EPS upside. SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil added that elasticity is in early days but within expectations, with 2026 planning based on a -1 elasticity, which is considered an appropriate center cut.

Andrew Lazar asked about Hershey's 2026 outlook, specifically regarding expectations for a non-algorithm top and bottom line year, considering moderating cocoa costs, lowered tariff estimates, and accelerating base momentum. He also inquired about the balance of these factors in shaping next year's EPS growth and the current elasticity response to pricing, along with expectations for 2026.

Answer

President and CEO Kirk Tanner stated that Hershey is delighted with current balanced growth and aims for 2-4% revenue growth in 2026, with margin recovery over a few years to return to the long-term algorithm. He noted potential for EPS upside while emphasizing long-term investment. Senior Vice President and CFO Steve Voskuil added that elasticity is in early days but within expectations, planning for a minus one elasticity for 2026, adjusting for 2025's positive factors like a long Easter and innovation.

Andrew Lazar asked if Hershey's underlying business needs an earnings reset for the incoming CEO, the rationale for selecting Kirk as the new CEO, and whether the 1-to-1 elasticity assumption for 2025 pricing is reasonable for 2026.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck stated that she does not see a need for a business reset, citing consistent investment, top-line momentum, and profit recovery plans. She highlighted new CEO Kirk's CPG experience and consumer-centric focus. SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil added that elasticity assumptions are based on exhaustive modeling and are slightly more favorable than historical trends due to the breadth of the portfolio.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked about the underlying health of Hershey's business, whether a new CEO would need to 'rebase' earnings, the rationale for the new CEO choice, and the reasonableness of the 1-to-1 elasticity assumption for future pricing.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck stated she does not see a need for a business reset, citing consistent investment in brands, technology, and strong top-line momentum. She highlighted incoming CEO Kirk's CPG experience as key. SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil added that elasticity assumptions are based on exhaustive modeling and are slightly more favorable than historical trends due to the breadth of the portfolio.

Andrew Lazar asked if the incoming CEO would need to rebase earnings and margins, the rationale for his selection, and about the elasticity assumptions for the recently announced price increases for 2025 and 2026.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck stated that a reset is unnecessary due to consistent brand and technology investments and current business momentum. She highlighted incoming CEO Kirk's extensive CPG experience at Pepsi. SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil added that the elasticity assumption of roughly one-to-one is based on exhaustive modeling and is slightly more favorable than historical trends due to the portfolio's breadth.

Andrew Lazar questioned if Hershey's outlook for earnings growth in 2026 has changed and inquired about the benefits seen from nuanced pricing actions on market share, especially in instant consumables.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil confirmed Hershey still sees a path to 2026 earnings growth, though it is now 'narrower and more challenging.' CEO Michele Buck noted 'green shoots' in instant consumables from incremental merchandising and expects overall market share to be neutral to up in the second half.

Andrew Lazar asked about Mondelēz's chocolate strategy, the impact of the precipitous fall in cocoa prices, and the potential for price deflation, particularly in light of significant pricing actions taken.

Answer

Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and CEO, explained the resilience of the chocolate category in 2025 despite price increases and the execution of their pricing and revenue growth management playbook. He noted higher-than-expected elasticity in northern European markets, leading to 2026 adjustments in price points and PPA, increased brand investments due to better cocoa coverage, and strong innovation with Biscoff. Luca Zaramella, COO and CFO, discussed the prudent 2026 guidance, citing U.S. biscuit category softness and European customer negotiations. He highlighted that recent cocoa dynamics create short-term pressure for 2026 due to higher existing coverage but are a fairer representation of supply/demand, benefiting 2027 profitability.

Andrew Lazar asked about Mondelēz's chocolate strategy, particularly how the precipitous fall in cocoa prices could impact dynamics, potential price deflation, and necessary adjustments for 2026. He also inquired about the thought process behind the 2026 guidance range, investment flexibility given cocoa cost declines, and updated views on the cocoa environment.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put explained Mondelēz's 2025 chocolate playbook, which focused on pricing and revenue growth management. He noted higher-than-expected elasticity in northern European markets, leading to 2026 adjustments like hitting key price points, increasing brand investments due to better cocoa coverage, and pushing innovation (e.g., Biscoff collaboration). Van de Put acknowledged short-term pressures from the sudden cocoa price decline potentially causing unexpected competitive reactions but highlighted the positive outlook for 2027 margins. COO and CFO Luca Zaramella added that the 2026 guidance is prudent, considering U.S. biscuit category softness and European customer negotiations. He emphasized that the recent cocoa price drop, while sudden, brings cocoa to a fairer representation of supply and demand, benefiting 2027 profitability, despite 2026 pipeline costs being higher than current spot prices.

Andrew Lazar asked about the performance and outlook for Europe, specifically regarding pricing, price gap management, and the impact of cocoa costs. He also inquired about the implied Q4 guidance change, the reasons for the adjustment, and the confidence in achieving the 2026 EPS algorithm, including key factors for next year's organic sales growth.

Answer

Dirk Van de Put (Chairman and CEO) explained that European consumer confidence is stable, with biscuits, cakes, pastries, and meals performing well. The chocolate business is fine despite substantial 30% price increases due to cocoa, but faces pressure in the UK and Germany from competitive pricing and retailer margin taking. He noted a July heatwave and downsizing affected volumes, and elasticity was higher than expected (0.7-0.8). Actions include innovation, A&C investment, seasonal drives, promo effectiveness, and adjusting price points. Luca Zaramella (CFO) attributed the 2025 guidance cut to tariffs, U.S. retailer destocking, the European heatwave, U.S. biscuit market softening, and higher chocolate elasticities. He highlighted actions to improve volume trends and an implied Q4 step-up in top line. For 2026, he anticipates cocoa deflation and targets high single-digit EPS growth, even with material investments, focusing on optimizing GP dollars, building share, and leveraging emerging markets and adjacencies.

Andrew Lazar inquired about Mondelēz's performance in Europe, focusing on consumer confidence, category trends, pricing strategies, and the impact of cocoa costs and competitive dynamics. He also asked for clarification on the implied Q4 guidance change, the reasons behind it, and the company's confidence in achieving its 2026 EPS algorithm, including key factors for organic sales growth.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put detailed Europe's stable consumer confidence, strong biscuit and pastry performance, and challenges in chocolate due to substantial 30% price increases and competitive pricing gaps. He noted higher-than-expected elasticity (0.7-0.8) and outlined actions like innovation, A&C investment, and promo effectiveness. CFO Luca Zaramella attributed the Q4 guidance adjustment to tariffs, U.S. destocking, European heatwave, and softening U.S. biscuit market, emphasizing a step-up in Q4 top-line. He expressed confidence in high single-digit 2026 EPS growth, driven by deflationary cocoa, optimized GP dollars, and investments in long-term growth.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked for an outlook on key geographies for the second half of 2025 and inquired about specific actions Mondelez could take to accelerate growth in the weaker North American market.

Answer

CEO Dirk Van de Put highlighted a balanced global performance, with resilient European markets and strong growth in emerging markets offsetting continued weakness in North America. CFO Luca Zaramella detailed the North American strategy, which includes incremental pricing, protecting key consumer price points, enhancing productivity, and driving growth in alternate channels like club and dollar stores. Zaramella confirmed the full-year guidance does not assume a significant rebound in U.S. consumer sentiment.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked for an overview of Mondelez's performance and outlook across key geographies for the second half of 2025, and inquired about specific actions to accelerate growth in the weaker North American market.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Dirk Van de Put highlighted a global balance, with strong performance in Europe and emerging markets offsetting continued weakness in North America, where consumer anxiety is high. CFO Luca Zaramella detailed North American plans, including selective pricing increases, enhanced productivity, cost controls, and a focus on alternate channels, while noting the company's guidance does not assume a category rebound.

Andrew Lazar asked for an overview of business trends in key regions for the year ahead and the main puts and takes for the full-year guidance, particularly concerning North America and European pricing.

Answer

CEO Dirk Van de Put highlighted a positive start to the year, citing successful price negotiations in Europe's chocolate business and strong performance in emerging markets like China and Brazil, which offset softness in North America. CFO Luca Zaramella reaffirmed the 2025 guidance, noting that strong pricing execution and a successful Easter season are key positives, while softer U.S. consumer sentiment and retailer destocking present challenges.

Andrew Lazar asked about the impact of recent cocoa price surges on Mondelez's chocolate strategy and the health of its European business, which is its largest chocolate market. He also inquired about the key drivers and phasing for the 2025 outlook, particularly for EPS and margins, and the primary considerations for 2026.

Answer

CEO Dirk Van de Put stated the strategy is to protect the chocolate category's health and market share through strong revenue growth management (RGM), continued brand investment, and cost discipline, while acknowledging that more pricing may be needed if cocoa costs remain elevated. He noted Europe's consumer is stable and the business is performing well. CFO Luca Zaramella added that the 2025 EPS decline reflects unprecedented cocoa costs, with Q1 being the most pressured. He emphasized that the company is positioned for EPS growth in 2026 regardless of cocoa price movements.

Andrew Lazar asked for an overview of Q3 performance and how it informs the company's strategy for the chocolate category, given the significant cocoa cost headwinds expected in the coming year. He also requested clarification on how the implied Q4 EPS decline should inform the outlook for 2025.

Answer

CEO Dirk Van de Put expressed satisfaction with Q3's strong top line and positive volume/mix, noting the business remains healthy. He outlined a long-term strategy for chocolate focused on category health, market share, and protecting key price points through robust Revenue Growth Management (RGM). CFO Luca Zaramella characterized the Q4 EPS pressure as an anomaly, caused by locking in cocoa costs at peak prices without the benefit of new pricing or cost measures that will be implemented in 2025. He reiterated that a path to EPS growth in 2025 is difficult without a material drop in cocoa prices or more benign elasticities.

Andrew Lazar asked about the performance of the mass merchandiser test, its potential for extension, and how it might influence future merchandising strategies for Premier Protein, particularly regarding out-of-pharmacy section placement.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Horn Davenport confirmed the program is performing very well, internally viewed as a success, and will be brought to other retailers. She highlighted record weekly sales on rollback items and January being the largest month ever at this retailer, attributing success to strong execution by the internal activation team and new broker.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the performance and potential future implications of the mass merchandiser test for Premier Protein, specifically regarding its success in expanding distribution outside the pharmacy section.

Answer

Darcy Davenport, President and CEO, confirmed the program is performing very well and is considered a success, with January being the largest month ever at this retailer. She noted strong execution and plans to apply these learnings to other food, drug, and mass customers.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the clarity on repeat rates for new entrants and insurgent brands, particularly at the largest club customer, and what this implies for the expected shelf set in the upcoming year.

Answer

Darcy Davenport, President and CEO, BellRing Brands, confirmed the expectation that the major club customer will maintain an expanded competitive set. She noted ongoing monitoring of insurgent brand repeat rates, anticipating a shake-out as many will not meet high club thresholds. Davenport emphasized Premier's strong market position, increasing repeat rates, and ability to source volume from competitors, expressing long-term confidence despite some near-term market 'messiness'.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the clarity on repeat rates for new entrants in the category, particularly at the largest club customer, and what this means for the expected shelf set in the year ahead at that customer.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Davenport confirmed the expectation that the major club customer will maintain its expanded set. She noted ongoing monitoring of repeat rates, anticipating a shake-out among insurgent brands, and reiterated Premier's strong market position, while also mentioning the planned transition out of a fifth pallet.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked for a preliminary outlook on fiscal year 2026, noting that the company has provided early guidance on this call in previous years.

Answer

CEO Darcy Horn Davenport explained that it is too early to provide specific guidance for fiscal 2026 as the company is in its planning process. She noted that forecasting is more complex now that they are not capacity-constrained but affirmed confidence in the long-term business opportunity, citing strong brand metrics and retailer support, while acknowledging uncertainties like promotion performance and tariffs.

Andrew Lazar asked about BellRing's expectations for convenient nutrition category growth in the second half of the fiscal year, considering the weakening consumer environment.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Davenport stated that category fundamentals remain strong with significant macro tailwinds and low household penetration. She noted the ready-to-drink (RTD) sub-category grew 19%. While the company is modeling various scenarios due to consumer sentiment, they do not anticipate a dramatic negative impact on their category's robust growth.

Andrew Lazar of Barclays asked about the early response to the new national Premier Protein advertising campaign, the potential for material shelf space gains from top-to-top customer discussions, and the current share of shelf versus market share.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Davenport noted that while the new ad campaign is very new, early metrics like website traffic (up 80%) and online search are strong. She explained that top-to-top discussions are leading to immediate gains in getting a 'fair share' of the shelf, which she estimated is currently about half of what it should be based on market share. Longer-term, these conversations focus on expanding the entire convenient nutrition category within stores.

Andrew Lazar asked about the key learnings from recent marketing trial runs for Premier Protein and inquired about the fiscal 2025 capacity increase outlook and the timeline for adding new production lines.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Davenport explained that in-market tests met or exceeded lift expectations and provided insights to improve creative content before the national launch. CFO Paul Rode added that fiscal 2025 production volumes are expected to increase in the mid-to-high teens, and the current network can support growth into late fiscal 2026 or 2027, pushing out the need for new lines.

Andrew Lazar asked about the key drivers underpinning McCormick's 2026 volume momentum outlook, specifically inquiring about expectations for the Consumer Americas segment given recent scanner trend deceleration and elasticity impacts. He also asked for the cadence of EPS growth for the upcoming four quarters.

Answer

Brendan Foley, President and CEO, outlined consumer segment drivers including increased A&P, continued benefits from 2025 innovation (e.g., U.S. Cholula, McCormick Gourmet relaunch), price gap management, distribution expansion, and focus on high-growth channels. For flavor solutions, he anticipated improvement over 2025 due to growth with high-growth innovators, private label customers, and increasing reformulation projects. Marcos Gabriel, EVP and CFO, explained that EPS should follow operating profit, with Q1 operating profit slightly below guidance due to the McCormick de Mexico acquisition not being fully reflected, but Q1 EPS expected at the mid to high end of the guidance range, building throughout the year.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the key drivers underpinning McCormick's 2026 outlook for continued volume momentum, specifically asking about expectations in Consumer Americas given recent scanner trends and elasticity. He also asked for insights into the cadence of EPS growth across the four quarters of 2026.

Answer

Brendan Foley, Chairman, President, and CEO, detailed consumer volume growth drivers including increased A&P, 2025 innovation benefits, the U.S. Gourmet relaunch, distribution expansion, and focus on high-growth channels. For flavor solutions, he cited an improved innovation pipeline, increased reformulation projects, and growth with emerging brands. Marcos Gabriel, Executive Vice President and CFO, explained that Q1 operating profit would be slightly below guidance due to the McCormick de Mexico acquisition, but Q1 EPS would be at the mid-to-high end, building up over subsequent quarters.

Andrew Lazar asked about McCormick's visibility to positive Consumer segment volume growth in fiscal Q4, given Q3 deceleration and incremental pricing, and inquired about observed elasticities. He also asked about the magnitude of potential further mitigation opportunities (CCI, RGM) for underlying inflation and incremental tariffs in fiscal 2026, considering some current mitigation efforts are not permanent.

Answer

Brendan Foley, Chairman, President, and CEO, attributed Q3 deceleration to overall food unit growth, not McCormick's plans. He emphasized maintaining volume momentum through surgical pricing, brand marketing, innovation (e.g., Frank's squeeze bottles, Cholula Extra Hot, McCormick finishing sugars, Gourmet line relaunch, Schwartz air fryer seasonings), expanded distribution, and holiday merchandising. Marcos Gabriel, Executive Vice President and CFO, added that robust analytics guide their pricing strategy. For 2026, Marcos Gabriel noted the updated gross tariff exposure ($140M vs $90M) and stated that solid mitigation plans (productivity savings, alternative sourcing, surgical pricing) would continue and scale up. Brendan Foley confirmed weekly meetings to identify new opportunities.

Andrew Lazar asked about McCormick's visibility to positive volume growth in the consumer segment for fiscal Q4, considering Q3's sequential deceleration and the introduction of incremental pricing, inquiring about early elasticity observations. He also questioned the magnitude of potential mitigation opportunities for fiscal 2026, including CCI and RGM levers, given underlying inflation and incremental tariffs, specifically addressing the permanence of current mitigation efforts.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Brendan Foley attributed Q3's deceleration to broader food unit growth declines, emphasizing McCormick's continued differentiated performance. He highlighted ongoing investments in brand marketing, innovation, expanded distribution, and strategic price gap management to drive Q4 volume growth. Executive Vice President and CFO Marcos Gabriel noted the fluidity of tariff impacts for 2026, confirming robust mitigation plans (productivity, alternative sourcing, surgical pricing) are in place and will be scaled up, with ongoing monitoring of elasticity.

Andrew Lazar asked why Q2 EBIT was significantly stronger than the company's prior guidance, which had suggested a second-half weighting, and inquired about the specific breakdown of tariff mitigation actions between cost savings and pricing.

Answer

EVP & CFO Marcos Gabriel explained that the Q2 EBIT outperformance was driven by two main factors: a timing shift in stock-based compensation that was a headwind in Q1 and a tailwind in Q2, and strong execution of CCI and SG&A streamlining initiatives. On tariffs, Gabriel stated the majority of the mitigation comes from sourcing optimization and CCI savings, with surgical pricing being a smaller, residual component. Chairman, President & CEO Brendan Foley added that this targeted pricing is not expected to impede the company's strong volume momentum.

Andrew Lazar asked for clarification on why the Q1 operating profit decline was steeper than previously guided and what provides confidence in reaffirming the full-year outlook.

Answer

EVP and CFO Marcos Gabriel explained the decline was primarily due to timing-related items, including a shift of stock-based compensation expense from Q2 into Q1 and front-loaded investments in marketing and technology. He noted that normalizing for the stock comp shift, operating profit would have been flat. Chairman, President and CEO Brendan Foley and CFO Marcos Gabriel both expressed confidence in the full-year guidance, citing strong underlying sales performance, expected gross margin expansion, and the reversal of these Q1 timing headwinds in subsequent quarters.

Andrew Lazar asked about the drivers behind the strong Q4 consumer volume growth and the sustainability of this momentum into fiscal 2025, as well as the specific targets for reinvestment during the upcoming year.

Answer

CEO Brendan Foley attributed the Q4 strength to increased brand marketing, innovation, expanded distribution, and effective price gap management, highlighting a particularly successful holiday season. He expects momentum to continue via more brand investment, new products, and packaging renovations. CFO Marcos Gabriel specified that fiscal 2025 reinvestment will focus on technology, including ERP implementation and building new AI and machine learning capabilities.

Andrew Lazar asked about the effectiveness of pricing investments on volume lift in the Americas Consumer segment and whether McCormick might increase these investments. He also inquired about the stabilization in prepared foods and its implications for broader industry volume recovery.

Answer

President and CEO Brendan Foley responded that the company is making the right progress and its programs, including price gap management, brand marketing, and innovation, are delivering the expected growth. He noted that while they are confident in their plans, the guidance remains appropriate given the dynamic consumer environment, challenges in China, and QSR uncertainty. On the second point, Foley confirmed that customer plans are performing as expected with some improvement, particularly in the Flavors business in the Americas, driven by high-growth innovators and branded foodservice.

Andrew Lazar asked about the stronger-than-expected Q2 EBIT growth given prior guidance for a second-half weighted year, and for a breakdown of tariff mitigation actions between cost savings and pricing.

Answer

CEO Brendan Foley highlighted strong consumer volume and outperformance in Flavor Solutions. CFO Marcos Gabriel attributed the EBIT beat to SG&A savings, split between stock-based compensation timing and CCI/streamlining initiatives. Gabriel confirmed H2 growth will be higher and Q4-weighted. On tariffs, he stated mitigation is mostly from sourcing and CCI, with surgical pricing as a smaller, residual component to protect volume momentum.

Andrew Lazar asked about expectations for positive year-over-year organic sales in fiscal 3Q, considering delayed shipments, easier frozen comparisons, full merchandising, innovation, and pricing in staples. He also inquired if Conagra is seeing a higher cost of volume due to shoppers increasingly waiting for promotions, potentially at the expense of base volume, as observed by another food company.

Answer

CEO Sean Connolly stated that Conagra expects organic net sales growth in the second half, advising models to balance Q3 and Q4. CFO Dave Marberger added that Q3 benefits from a trade inventory shift, wrapping prior year supply constraints, and an unfavorable Q3 trade adjustment. Regarding promotional dynamics, Sean Connolly clarified that Conagra has not seen the described trend of higher cost of volume, and their plan to invest margin for volume inflection in frozen and snacks is unfolding consistent with expectations.

Andrew Lazar asked about expectations for positive year-over-year organic sales in fiscal Q3, considering delayed shipments, easier frozen comparisons, full merchandising, innovation, and pricing in staples brands. He also inquired if Conagra is observing a higher cost of volume due to increased promotional buying, similar to another food company.

Answer

CEO Sean Connolly confirmed expectations for overall positive organic net sales growth in the second half, advising models to balance Q3 and Q4. CFO Dave Marberger highlighted key drivers for Q3: trade inventory shift, wrapping prior year supply constraints, and an unfavorable Q3 trade adjustment from a year ago. Sean Connolly stated Conagra has not seen a higher cost of volume from increased promotional buying, noting their plan anticipated the cost of volume inflection in frozen and snacks, consistent with expectations.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked whether Conagra's aggressive investment strategy suggests that current industry challenges are more structural, especially given the need to increase spending while consumers may not be fully responsive.

Answer

President & CEO Sean Connolly responded that the challenges are not structural. He asserted that consumers have been highly responsive to investments, citing volume growth in H1 FY25 before supply issues arose. Connolly explained that the current margin pressure is a temporary result of a multi-year inflation cycle combined with a strategic decision to prioritize volume growth in key frozen and snacks categories. He outlined a clear path to margin expansion post-FY26, driven by productivity, eventual inflation relief, supply chain resiliency investments, and targeted pricing.

Andrew Lazar asked for a high-level outlook on fiscal '26, noting existing factors like brand spending and a 53rd week, and also questioned the significant gap between shipments and consumption in the Grocery & Snacks segment.

Answer

CEO Sean Connolly stated that official fiscal '26 guidance will be provided in July, citing the dynamic macro environment. He confirmed known factors are in the base but highlighted that inflation, tariffs, and consumer sentiment remain wildcards. Connolly explained the Grocery & Snacks shipment gap was due to the timing of seasonal holiday shipments, which fell more in Q2 this year versus Q3 last year, normalizing over a six-month view.

Andrew Lazar asked about expectations for narrowing the gap between volume share and value share in fiscal 3Q and 4Q to achieve overall organic sales growth, and the outlook for the dog feeding category given its recent performance.

Answer

Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO, indicated expected improvement in the second half based on price mix and trade phasing, while Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet, noted the pet category was up 1% in Q2, with dog feeding lagging due to shifts to unmeasured channels, smaller dogs, and consumer pullback in discretionary segments.

Andrew Lazar inquired whether the current challenging volume environment in the food industry is primarily structural or a result of significant pricing and consumer pressure, asking if recent General Mills results support the thesis that volume recovery is largely within the industry's control.

Answer

Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO of General Mills, stated that the company believes volume recovery is largely in their control, attributing the slight historical volume gap to a decade's worth of inflation in a few years. He noted that while GLP-1 medications have had a small impact, General Mills is adapting by offering protein-rich products like Cheerios Protein and Progresso Pitmaster to meet evolving consumer demands.

Andrew Lazar inquired whether the current challenging volume environment in the food space is primarily structural or a result of significant industry pricing and consumer pressure, and if recent results support the thesis that much of it remains within the industry's control.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Harmening stated that General Mills believes the volume environment is largely in their control, attributing the 50 basis point gap from historical volumes primarily to consumers recovering from decades of inflation. He noted that GLP-1s have had a small impact, but also present opportunities for protein-rich products.

Andrew Lazar inquired whether the current challenging volume environment in the food industry is primarily structural or a result of significant pricing and consumer pressure, and General Mills' confidence in regaining volume growth.

Answer

Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO, stated that General Mills believes volume recovery is largely within their control, attributing the slight historical volume gap to a decade's worth of inflation. He highlighted opportunities within consumer trends, such as increased demand for protein, as seen with Cheerios Protein and Nature Valley Creamy Protein.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the deeper-than-anticipated reinvestment for fiscal 2026, asking how the company ensures responsible margin management and whether some investments are temporary, allowing for a future margin rebuild.

Answer

CFO Kofi Bruce identified several factors as temporary pressures on margin. These include the multi-year investment in fresh pet food which is expected to become profitable at scale, the near-term drag from tariffs, and stranded costs from the Yoplait divestiture that will phase out by fiscal 2027.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked about the significant reinvestment planned for fiscal 2026, seeking assurance that the resulting margin profile is being managed responsibly and not being structurally lowered for the long term.

Answer

CFO Kofi Bruce addressed the concern by identifying several factors he views as temporary rather than structural. These include the multi-year investment in fresh pet food, which is expected to become profitable at scale; the timing drag from tariffs that the company expects to mitigate over time; and stranded costs from the Yoplait divestiture that will conclude in fiscal 2027.

Andrew Lazar asked about the scale of incremental investment required for fiscal '26, following the planned Q4 '25 step-up, and how that spend will be balanced between pricing, innovation, and marketing.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening explained that due to a challenging consumer environment, fiscal '26 will be a significant reinvestment year. He stated the company will use HMM savings and the 53rd week to fund these efforts. The focus will be on correcting value propositions, particularly in snacks, while also increasing marketing spend and launching key new products, with some of these actions beginning in Q4 '25.

Andrew Lazar asked about the planned step-up in investment for fiscal '26, questioning how the incremental spending will be balanced between price point adjustments, innovation, in-store activity, and media.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening explained that due to a challenging consumer environment, the company will reinvest HMM savings and the 53rd week into growth initiatives. He cited the success of Blue Buffalo and Pillsbury, where sharpening value and then boosting marketing and innovation proved effective. For fiscal '26, the focus will be on improving value in snacks, increasing marketing spend, and launching significant new products.

Andrew Lazar inquired about The Campbell's Company's conviction in stabilizing the snack segment in the second half of the fiscal year, given that Q1 trends did not improve as much as expected, and how affordability discussions from key competitors might impact this outlook.

Answer

CEO Mick Beekhuizen noted that aggregate dollar consumption trends in snacks were sequentially stable. He highlighted evolving snacking preferences, strong cookie innovation, encouraging Snack Factory performance, and ongoing work needed for Snyder's of Hanover and Goldfish. He emphasized the importance of price-pack architecture and value, stating that Q2 performance will inform the second-half trajectory for the snacks business.

Andrew Lazar asked about the primary drivers of pressure in the Snacks division, questioning whether it was category-wide weakness or company-specific execution, and inquired about the key factors influencing the outlook for fiscal 2026.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Mick Beekhuizen explained that the Snacks division's underperformance was approximately two-thirds due to category deterioration and one-third from in-market performance. He detailed plans to reignite brands like Goldfish through strategic promotions and price pack architecture rather than broad price cuts. For fiscal 2026, he anticipates the Snacks recovery will extend into that year, likely requiring marketing spend to increase towards the higher end of the 9-10% of sales range and facing a headwind from normalized incentive compensation.

Andrew Lazar asked for clarity on the drivers behind the lower fiscal second-half profit outlook, questioning if the revised guidance allows enough flexibility to improve the Snacks business and if the net price headwind forecast has changed.

Answer

CEO Mick Beekhuizen explained the guidance revision was driven by a slower-than-expected recovery in the broader snacking categories, which impacted the top-line forecast. He detailed that the EBIT reduction stems from this top-line miss and a lower Snacks margin outlook, partially offset by accelerated cost savings. CFO Carrie Anderson added that while promotional investment was higher in Q2, it will be less of a headwind in the second half, and the new guidance provides sufficient room for competitive support.

Andrew Lazar of Barclays questioned the confidence in the back-half sales improvement, given the softer Q1 and Q2 outlook and broader industry commentary suggesting a challenging upcoming year. He also asked how current promotional levels compare to pre-pandemic periods.

Answer

CEO Mark Clouse clarified that the back-half improvement is not a 'hockey stick' but a modest step-up driven by easier prior-year comparisons, the organic contribution from Rao's, and a robust innovation and investment plan. He stated that promotional levels are in line with historical norms and the company does not anticipate needing disproportionate price reductions, instead focusing on winning through marketing and innovation, particularly for cookies and pretzels where early signs of share stabilization are encouraging.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the key drivers and sustainability of the improved performance in the Meals & Beverages division, particularly in light of the temporary broth market share gains. He also asked for the rationale behind management's confidence in a broader industry recovery, which has been slower than many expected.

Answer

CEO Mark Clouse explained that the Meals & Beverages division is well-positioned for current in-home consumption trends. He emphasized that soup volume growth was achieved without sacrificing margins and that while broth share gains were aided by a competitor's supply issue, it provided an opportunity to attract new households. Clouse expressed confidence in the industry's normalization, citing positive category data and noting that recent pressure on the Snacks business was more share-related than a sign of category weakness.

Andrew Lazar asked about the sustainability of sweet baked goods' organic sales improvement, questioning if it's due to easier year-ago comparisons or transitory benefits. He also inquired about the specific coffee-related portion of the $0.50 tariff impact and its potential benefit to fiscal 2027.

Answer

Mark Smucker, Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board, expressed satisfaction with sweet baked snacks' progress, citing sequential improvement, better C-Store performance, improved volume shares, and the success of a focused portfolio strategy including SKU elimination and brand investment. Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that the predominance of the $0.50 tariff impact is related to green coffee, making it a tailwind for fiscal 2027 and a headwind for fiscal 2026.

Andrew Lazar asked about the sustainability of organic sales improvement in the sweet baked goods segment, distinguishing between sustainable gains and transitory benefits or easier year-ago comparisons. He also inquired about the specific coffee-related portion of the $0.50 tariff impact this year and its potential benefit to fiscal 2027.

Answer

Mark Smucker, CEO and Chair of the Board, highlighted sequential improvement in sweet baked snacks, particularly in C-Store volume shares, driven by a focused portfolio, SKU rationalization, the relaunch of Susie Q's, and improved sales execution. He expects acceleration in subsequent quarters. Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that the predominance of the $0.50 tariff impact is related to green coffee, making it a headwind for fiscal 2026 and a tailwind for fiscal 2027.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked for an updated expectation on the pricing benefit for the coffee segment in fiscal 2026 due to new tariffs and inquired about the reasons for a shift in quarterly EPS phasing, where the second quarter is now expected to be weaker than previously guided.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall explained that the updated outlook for coffee pricing benefit is now in the mid-20s, including an early winter price increase to address tariffs, with an expected volume impact in the low to mid-teens. Regarding EPS phasing, Marshall noted that while the full-year midpoint guidance remains unchanged, higher-than-anticipated coffee costs in Q1 and the timing of hedging activities will shift some costs into Q2, making it softer than previously expected.

Andrew Lazar questioned the fiscal 2026 EPS outlook, noting it appears subdued even after accounting for coffee inflation and tariffs, and asked what changed since the company's CAGNY presentation. He also inquired why the company isn't assuming higher-than-historical price elasticity for coffee given the magnitude of upcoming price increases.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall explained the change in outlook was driven by a $0.30 investment in marketing for Cafe Bustelo and Uncrustables, a $0.20 negative impact from the Sweet Baked Snacks segment, and a newly factored-in $0.25 impact from tariffs. He affirmed the company believes its coffee elasticity assumption of 0.5 on average is prudent, though it will be higher in Q1.

Andrew Lazar asked for clarification on the drivers behind the expected sequential sales improvement in Q4 and requested a breakdown of the factors leading to the fiscal '25 comparable sales guidance revision.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall confirmed the math and attributed the expected Q4 improvement primarily to the pet portfolio's recovery from prior disruptions and a better-than-expected outlook for the coffee portfolio. Marshall explained the $60 million guidance revision was driven by the $20 million sales miss in Q3 and a lowered Q4 forecast for Hostess of approximately $20 million.

Andrew Lazar asked for the key drivers behind the expected sequential sales improvement in Q4 2025 and requested a breakdown of the factors that led to the downward revision of the full-year fiscal 2025 sales guidance.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall confirmed that the expected Q4 comparable sales improvement is primarily driven by the Pet portfolio's recovery from disruptions and a better-than-expected outlook for Coffee. Marshall explained the full-year guidance revision of approximately $60 million was due to the Q3 sales miss and a reduced Q4 forecast for the Hostess brand.

Andrew Lazar asked for clarification on the fiscal third-quarter sales guidance, which projects flat year-over-year results despite strong recent momentum, and questioned the drivers behind the expected sequential improvement for the Hostess brand in the second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall explained that the Q3 flat sales forecast is due to lapping strong prior-year comps in pet food, assessing the impact of a second coffee price increase, reduced co-manufacturing sales, and a planned reduction in Sweet Baked Snacks. For Hostess, Marshall confirmed the guidance implies a low single-digit decline in the second half, with sequential improvement driven by enhanced execution and lapping easier comparables.

Andrew Lazar asked for clarification on the expected flat year-over-year sales in Q3, given strong momentum, and questioned the drivers behind the implied sequential improvement for the Hostess brand in the second half of the fiscal year.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall explained that the flat Q3 sales forecast is due to lapping a second round of coffee pricing, a strong prior-year comparison in pet food, reduced co-manufacturing sales, and a call-down in Sweet Baked Snacks, offset by growth in frozen handhelds and spreads. He confirmed the Hostess guidance implies a low single-digit decline in the second half, driven by improved execution and lapping easier comparables.

Andrew Lazar asked about the anticipated sequential moderation in the year-over-year rate of organic sales decline for Q2, considering the planned incremental marketing investments. He also inquired about the observed elasticity of pricing actions in North America for tea and baby categories, comparing it to the previously stated 1% expectation, and how key retail partners received these price increases.

Answer

Lee Boyce (CFO) indicated that some moderation in organic sales decline is anticipated for Q2, with the primary focus for significant improvement remaining on the second half of the fiscal year, particularly in snacks, baby & kids (Ella's), and beverages. Alison Lewis (Interim President and CEO) confirmed that tea pricing in North America flowed through as expected with retailers, and early elasticity reads are generally in line with the 1% expectation. She noted that baby category pricing has been slower to roll through due to multiple subcategories, but initial data suggests it's also in line, despite more competitive dynamics. Management plans to monitor closely and remain dynamic.

Andrew Lazar asked about the anticipated sequential moderation in organic sales decline for Q2, given incremental investments, and inquired about the observed elasticity of North America pricing actions, particularly for tea and baby categories, and their reception by retail partners.

Answer

Lee Boyce indicated that some moderation in organic sales decline is expected in Q2, with the primary focus on stronger improvements in the second half, specifically in snacks, baby & kids (Ella's, Earth's Best), beverages (tea, private label non-dairy), and stable meal prep. Alison Lewis added that North America tea pricing flowed through as expected in Q1 with elasticity generally in line with the 1% expectation. Baby pricing roll-through was slower due to multiple categories, but early data suggests it's in line, though competitive dynamics are higher in the baby category.

Andrew Lazar asked about Hain Celestial's strategy for brand reinvestment and financial flexibility, particularly given the current balance sheet strain and the need for a cost structure reset, and inquired about the minimum EBITDA required for fiscal 2026 to comply with the new credit agreement.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Alison Lewis explained that Hain Celestial is aggressively driving financial flexibility across all P&L levers to fund high-return investments and 'get the flywheel going.' CFO Lee Boyce added that significant incremental savings from the operating model unlock, strategic revenue growth management, and pricing actions provide flexibility. Regarding the EBITDA floor, Lee Boyce noted the Q4 leverage of 4.7x against the new 5.5x maximum net secured leverage ratio, indicating a comfortable cushion.

Andrew Lazar inquired about Hain Celestial's strategy for managing brand reinvestment and financial flexibility, particularly given the current balance sheet strain, and asked for the fiscal 2026 EBITDA floor to comply with the new credit agreement.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Alison Lewis emphasized aggressive financial flexibility across the P&L to fund high-return investments and drive the business flywheel. CFO Lee Boyce added that significant incremental savings from the operating model, disciplined revenue growth management, and recent pricing actions provide flexibility, along with the amended credit agreement's increased headroom.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays inquired about Hain Celestial's strategy to reset its cost structure for financial flexibility, particularly how it plans to manage brand reinvestment given a strained balance sheet, contrasting it with previous management's 'pay-as-you-go' approach. He also asked about the minimum EBITDA required for fiscal 2026 to comply with the new credit agreement.

Answer

Alison Lewis, Interim President, CEO & Director, explained that Hain is aggressively driving financial flexibility across the P&L to make tough investment decisions with a focus on high-return areas. Lee Boyce, CFO, added that significant incremental savings from the operating model, strategic revenue growth management, and recent pricing actions, along with the amended credit agreement, provide increased headroom. He noted the Q4 leverage of 4.7x against a new 5.5x maximum, indicating a comfortable cushion without providing a specific EBITDA floor.

Andrew Lazar asked if the company's back-half guidance incorporates flexibility for potential unforeseen executional challenges, given recent history and the dynamic environment. He also requested more detail on the expected cadence of organic sales growth in the third and fourth quarters.

Answer

CEO Wendy Davidson confirmed that the revised guidance includes caution due to past execution challenges and the broader marketplace volatility. CFO Lee Boyce added that they expect a sequential improvement in EBITDA and gross margin through the year, with a material step-up in Q4. He affirmed the company expects to pivot to positive organic sales growth starting in the third quarter.

Andrew Lazar inquired about Lamb Weston's decision to restart a curtailed U.S. production line, asking how this aligns with the industry's overall supply-demand imbalance and if there are any new industry capacity delays or cancellations. He also sought clarification on the expected year-over-year price/mix decline for the first fiscal half and its implications for sequential improvement in fiscal 2Q.

Answer

CEO Mike Smith explained that the line restart was necessary to meet demand signals, volume growth, and maintain customer fill rates, noting positive signs. He added that market intelligence suggests the industry is being rational, with new capacity announcements slowing and some previously announced capacity being delayed, postponed, or canceled. CFO Bernadette Madarieta clarified that on a constant currency basis, a mid to high single-digit decrease in price/mix is expected for the first half, moderating to low to mid in the back half.

Andrew Lazar asked about Lamb Weston's decision to restart a curtailed U.S. production line, questioning how it aligns with the industry's overall supply-demand imbalance and if there are further industry capacity delays or cancellations. He also inquired about the expected price/mix decline for the first fiscal half and if the previous low to mid-single-digit year-over-year decline still holds, implying a sequential improvement in fiscal 2Q.

Answer

CEO Mike Smith explained that the line restart was necessary to meet demand signals, accommodate new customers, and maintain fill rates, indicating positive business momentum. He noted that market intelligence suggests some previously announced industry capacity expansions have been delayed, postponed, or canceled, and the pace of new announcements has slowed, suggesting industry rationality. CFO Bernadette Madarieta clarified that, on a constant currency basis, a mid to high single-digit decrease in price is expected for the first half, moderating to low to mid-single digits in the back half, with foreign currency having a larger impact.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked how weak restaurant traffic, new industry capacity, and lower crop prices would impact upcoming QSR contract negotiations, and also inquired about the primary focus areas of the AlixPartners engagement.

Answer

CEO Mike Smith explained that contract negotiations haven't started and that while potato costs are lower, other input cost inflation and potential tariffs will be factors. He also clarified the AlixPartners review is comprehensive, covering a value creation plan (costs, sales, working capital) and a long-term growth strategy. Executive Bernadette Madarieta added that raw potatoes constitute only about one-third of COGS.

Andrew Lazar asked about Lamb Weston's new structural or normalized EBITDA margin in light of increased industry capacity, and questioned why competitors have not made similar rational decisions to curtail production.

Answer

President and CEO Thomas Werner stated that in the current environment, the company believes a go-forward EBITDA margin is in the 19% to 20% range. CFO Bernadette Madarieta added that they will aim to expand margins by pricing to inflation over the long term. Regarding competitors, Werner speculated they are evaluating the current market dynamics and that actions may be forthcoming, while Madarieta characterized the situation as a short-to-medium-term imbalance.

Andrew Lazar asked about the better-than-expected Q1 price/mix, particularly in North America, and whether it signals a more favorable pricing environment than anticipated given the industry's supply-demand imbalance. He also inquired if competitors are taking similar capacity reduction actions.

Answer

President and CEO Tom Werner stated that the pricing environment and contract season outcome were in line with expectations, with positive Q1 results aided by better product mix and carryover pricing. Regarding competitors, Werner noted he has no insight into their specific plans but acknowledged that the challenging environment might cause others to pause capacity additions. He emphasized that Lamb Weston's actions are focused on managing its own business for the long term.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked for the rationale behind management's confidence in the revised full-year guidance, given recent misses, and questioned the implied organic growth trajectory for the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker acknowledged past optimism on the ERP implementation and an unanticipated Q1 inventory excess. He explained that Q2 was impacted by the hottest June on record in Western Europe but noted the company gained volume market share. Descheemaeker stated the wider guidance range accounts for potential heatwave risks. CFO Ruben Baldew added that the midpoint of H2 guidance implies about 0.5% growth, reflecting a prudent stance to avoid further guidance revisions, especially given the weak start to Q3 due to weather.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the drivers behind the 1% to 3% organic sales growth forecast for 2025, specifically the expected contributions from category growth and market share. He also asked about the anticipated price/mix performance in Q1.

Answer

CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker explained the forecast is based on ~1% category growth, with the remainder from market share gains, mix, and a net positive impact from a more measured ERP rollout. CFO Ruben Baldew added that while volume remains a key focus, some pricing may be necessary later in the year to offset inflation, but the current trend is volume-led growth with some price pressure.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays asked for the drivers behind the confidence in the significant back-half EBITDA growth acceleration and questioned what specifically led to the strong top-line performance in the first half.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman explained that confidence in back-half EBITDA growth stems from a natural Q3 gross margin step-up, accelerated productivity savings from CapEx and a plant closure, and a favorable portfolio mix. He attributed the strong top-line results to significant distribution gains in expansion markets, volume and value share gains in core geographies for brands like Boulder Canyon, and improving trends in the convenience store channel.

Andrew Lazar asked about the company's fiscal '25 category growth assumption, its strategy for holding and expanding value share, and its confidence in pricing flexibility amid a competitive and sluggish category. He also inquired about any specific top-line factors to consider for Q1.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman projected fiscal '25 category growth at 0% to 1%, stating the company's strategy to hold core market share and grow in expansion markets remains intact. He expressed confidence in pricing due to value-added offerings like bonus bags and a new price pack architecture, and he expects promotional intensity to normalize. For Q1, he noted a difficult comparison against a strong January 2024 but confirmed the year was starting as anticipated.

Andrew Lazar asked for insight into the significant Q4 organic growth acceleration implied by the full-year guidance, questioning the visibility given flat consumption data and Q3 shipments outpacing consumption. He also inquired about how the company is factoring in a competitor's stated intention to increase activity in the tortilla chip segment.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman explained that the anticipated Q4 momentum is supported by factors within the company's control, including increased marketing, building innovation, seasonal execution, distribution gains, and significantly easier year-over-year comparisons. Regarding tortilla chips, he noted that Utz has historically maintained a wider price gap, is benefiting from distribution gains for its On The Border brand, and is prepared to adjust tactics if necessary but feels comfortable with its current competitive position.

Andrew Lazar asked for clarification on the difference between flat retail sales and the 3% organic sales growth, questioning if it was due to timing or unmeasured channels. He also inquired about the balance between volume gains and returns from the bonus pack program.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman explained the sales growth difference was primarily due to significant strength in untracked channels like natural, discount, and club, plus improved throughput from a new distribution center. He clarified no sales were pulled forward. Regarding bonus packs, Friedman noted they are part of a strategy to hold share in core markets while growing in expansion geographies, and that the volume-to-value relationship should normalize as the bonus packs wind down.

Andrew Lazar of Barclays asked about the competitive dynamics between private label and national brands, specifically questioning the narrowing price gaps and why branded volumes outperformed private label in Q2. He also inquired about the M&A environment and whether the availability of strategic assets has increased.

Answer

CEO Steven Oakland explained that commodity-driven price increases are the same in dollar terms for both private and branded goods, which makes the percentage increase higher for private label but keeps the shelf price gap healthy. He noted TreeHouse performed well in its key categories. Regarding M&A, Oakland confirmed they are actively investing in high-performing categories like coffee and tea, citing the Harris Teas acquisition as a way to accelerate strategy, and noted their balance sheet is an advantage.

Andrew Lazar asked for the reasons behind the sequential slowdown in underlying volume from Q4 2024 to the Q1 2025 forecast and shared a high-level query on whether current industry challenges are more structural and enduring compared to past downturns.

Answer

EVP and CFO Patrick O'Donnell attributed the volume slowdown to the timing of broth facility ramp-up benefits in Q4 and broader category deceleration. Chairman, CEO and President Steven Oakland addressed the industry outlook, stating that while challenges exist, TreeHouse is using this period to reset, focus on controllable factors like supply chain efficiency, and take a conservative volume stance to improve execution and profitability for when the market normalizes.

Andrew Lazar from Barclays questioned the weaker 2025 outlook, even excluding the recent recall, asking what changed so dramatically in the consumer environment since the last quarter and where the volume has gone. He also asked if TreeHouse is now gaining share within its private label categories.

Answer

CEO Steve Oakland attributed the weaker outlook to a significant and rapid deceleration in consumer demand, particularly in the mass channel, which turned negative in Q3 and worsened in October. He stated the company will focus on controllable factors like supply chain savings and cash flow. Oakland confirmed TreeHouse is seeing share gains in key categories like cookies, dough, and pretzels, but noted this is occurring within a shrinking overall market.

Andrew Lazar asked for commentary on the company's consideration of strategic transactions, questioning how Kraft Heinz would address investor concerns that such moves could be financial engineering rather than true value creation.

Answer

CEO & Director Carlos Abrams-Rivera stated that the board is evaluating strategic options with urgency to unlock long-term shareholder value. He assured that any potential actions would align with the company's established financial discipline but declined to provide further specifics.

Andrew Lazar questioned the revised outlook and increased investment strategy, asking if this approach is more comprehensive than past efforts, which have not fully delivered in a dynamic consumer environment.

Answer

CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera stated the company is choosing to 'play offense with discipline' by prioritizing investments in marketing, R&D, and technology. He highlighted the scaling of the 'brand growth system' from 10% to 40% of the business as a key differentiator. Executive Andre Maciel added that the new guidance allows for an accelerated step-up in marketing spend to approximately 4.8% of revenue, building on investments already planned in the prior outlook.

Andrew Lazar questioned the revised outlook and increased investments, asking if the current strategy is more comprehensive and different from past efforts that did not yield desired results.

Answer

CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera explained that the company is 'playing offense with discipline' by prioritizing investments in marketing, R&D, and technology. He highlighted that the key difference now is the scaled-up 'brand growth system' (BGS), which is being expanded to 40% of the business, providing greater confidence in investment efficacy. CFO Andre Maciel added that the new guidance allows for an accelerated marketing spend step-up to approximately 4.8% of revenue, funding media and product renovations.

Andrew Lazar questioned the revised outlook and increased investment strategy, asking if it represented a more comprehensive plan compared to previous incremental approaches.

Answer

CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera stated the company is "playing offense with discipline," scaling its "brand growth system" to 40% of the business to ensure better ROI. EVP & Global CFO Andre Maciel added that the new guidance allows for marketing spend to increase to approximately 4.8% of revenue, up from 4.5%, and also funds product renovations.

Andrew Lazar asked about the drivers behind the recent rapid acceleration in consumer interest in health and wellness cereal brands and questioned the expected magnitude of Q2 gross margin contraction.

Answer

CEO Gary Pilnick stated the health trend is an acceleration of a long-term shift towards value and nutrition, which the company was prepared for. CFO David McKinstray confirmed the largest margin impact from inventory right-sizing will occur in Q2, leading to a more stabilized gross margin in the second half of the year.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the drivers behind the recent, rapid acceleration in consumer interest in health and wellness cereal brands and asked about the expected magnitude of gross margin contraction in Q2.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Gary Pilnick explained that the health and wellness trend has been accelerating for some time, and the company was prepared to pivot with new foods and campaigns. CFO Dave McKinstry confirmed that Q2 will see the largest impact from manufacturing adjustments to align with revised demand, but inventory levels should be right-sized by the second half of the year, leading to more stabilized gross margins.

Andrew Lazar asked for a quantification of the impact of volume deleverage on Q4 gross margin to better understand the underlying operational progress.

Answer

CFO David McKinstray explained that the Q4 gross margin performance was broadly in line with prior guidance. He noted that ongoing Price Pack Architecture (PPA) initiatives contributed to the dynamic and expects volume to normalize in the back half of the next year as the company fully laps this activity.

Inquired about the turnaround plan for the underperforming Special K brand and asked about the supply chain setup and profitability of smaller package sizes.

Answer

For Special K, the company is lapping mechanical issues, improving execution, and has launched a new 'Special for a Reason' campaign. They feel better about its prospects for 2025. Regarding smaller packs, the supply chain is well set up to handle them, and the company likes the economics across the Price Pack Architecture (PPA) portfolio.

Andrew Lazar asked for more detail on the strategy to improve the performance of the Special K brand, which has been a drag on the 'Core 6' portfolio. He also questioned the supply chain's flexibility and the profitability associated with smaller package sizes.

Answer

Gary Pilnick, Chairman and CEO, acknowledged Special K's underperformance but noted its share decline has stabilized. He outlined a 2025 plan involving lapping SKU rationalization, improving in-store execution, and launching a new 'Special for a Reason' campaign. Regarding smaller packs, he stated the supply chain is 'set up well' to handle them and that the company 'likes the economics' of its PPA strategy.

Andrew Lazar asked for more detail on the plan to stabilize the Special K brand, which continues to lag the other 'Core 6' brands. He also inquired about the supply chain's flexibility to handle smaller package sizes and the profitability of these units.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Gary Pilnick outlined a multi-pronged approach for Special K, including lapping prior SKU rationalization, improving in-store execution, and launching a new 'Special for a Reason' campaign to better connect with consumers. Regarding smaller pack sizes under the PPA strategy, he stated that the supply chain is well-equipped to handle them and that the company likes the economics across the PPA portfolio.

Andrew Lazar inquired about the drivers behind the larger-than-expected price/mix drag in Europe during the quarter and its expected trajectory for the rest of the year. He also asked about the biggest distribution opportunities in North America and how the company balances sales growth with improving profitability in the region.

Answer

Daniel Ordonez, Global President and COO, explained that the price/mix decline in Europe was largely due to Q1 customer renegotiations that are now mostly resolved and should not be a significant factor going forward. Regarding North America, he stated that distribution opportunities are "everywhere," specifically citing new products like the Barista 64-ounce chilled item, creamers, the club channel, and foodservice outside of its largest customer as key areas for expansion.

Andrew Lazar from Citigroup asked about the implication of the Green Giant impairment charge on its potential sale value, sought clarification on the 53rd-week sales benefit calculation, and inquired about whether current packaged food industry headwinds are temporary or a more enduring structural shift.

Answer

CFO Bruce Wacha explained that the Green Giant impairment charge was driven by accounting rules and business performance, not as an indicator of expected value in a potential sale. He and CEO Casey Keller clarified the 53rd week's benefit is smaller than a typical calendar week, representing about three days of sales. CEO Casey Keller shared his view that the industry's headwinds are a temporary consumer reaction to elevated prices, which the company will eventually lap, rather than a permanent structural change in behavior.

Andrew Lazar of Piper Sandler questioned the Q3 sales underperformance relative to consumption data, asking if Q2 had benefited from inventory stocking, and inquired about cost-saving measures and the cautious Q4 outlook.

Answer

CFO Bruce Wacha attributed some of the variance to timing shifts in foodservice, while confirming Q3 retailer destocking. CEO Casey Keller noted that productivity efforts, SG&A cuts, and restructuring are underway to manage costs. Keller explained the cautious Q4 outlook is prudent due to the slower-than-expected recovery in consumer behavior.

Andrew Lazar of Barclays asked about the effectiveness of promotional activity, specifically what kind of lift Kellanova is seeing given that promoted price points are still significantly higher than they were pre-pandemic.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane acknowledged that promotional lifts were not great at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, as consumers were still going through price discovery. However, he stated that the returns on investment are now starting to improve sequentially. This improving effectiveness of promotions contributes to the company's confidence in its performance for the second half of the year and into next year.

Andrew Lazar of Barclays asked about the potential gross margin headwind from negative fixed cost absorption due to weak volumes in North America. He also inquired where consumers are in the process of adjusting to higher absolute price points.

Answer

Vice Chairman and CFO Amit Banati acknowledged that lower volume was a headwind but stated it was more than offset by improved supply chain performance and service levels. Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane suggested consumers are in the 'seventh or eighth inning' of adjusting to new reference prices, which, combined with Kellanova's merchandising and RGM initiatives, supports an improved outlook for the second half of the year.