Andrew Ruben

Andrew Ruben inquired about the investment cycle for MercadoLibre's key growth drivers, including free shipping, 1P, cross-border, and credit card investments, seeking clarity on whether these investments are at peak intensity or represent a more elongated cycle.

Answer

Martín de los Santos, CFO, clarified that the 5-6 percentage point margin impact stems from deliberate investments in shipping thresholds, credit cards (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina), 1P, CBT (expanding to China/U.S.), and smaller countries. He noted that individual businesses are improving profitability (e.g., 1P on a variable basis, older credit card cohorts in Brazil), but rapid growth in these areas creates a shift issue. He expressed confidence in these investments for long-term opportunities and improved user experience, citing record NPS levels.

Andrew Ruben inquired about MercadoLibre's investment cycle for free shipping, 1P cross-border, and credit card initiatives, seeking clarity on whether these investments are at peak intensity or represent an elongated cycle.

Answer

CFO Martín de los Santos clarified that investments in lowering shipping thresholds, credit card expansion, 1P, CBT, and smaller country scaling collectively pressured margins by 5-6 points. He noted individual businesses are improving, but faster growth in some areas creates a 'shift issue,' affirming confidence in long-term opportunities and user experience improvements, evidenced by record NPS levels.

Andrew Ruben asked about the evolution of macro challenges in Argentina (GMV, TPV, funding costs) over the quarter, the post-election economic outlook, and how this impacts Mercado Libre's growth investment plans for fulfillment centers and credit cards in the country.

Answer

Mercado Libre CFO Martin de los Santos explained that Argentina remains a key market with continued investment, including a second fulfillment center and credit card launch. He noted strong H1 growth, but Q3 saw a slowdown due to macro instability and increased interest rates. Despite this, revenues grew 39% YoY (USD) and 97% (local currency), items sold grew 34%, and the credit book grew 100% YoY with solid metrics. He expressed optimism for the long-term outlook post-election volatility.

Andrew Ruben asked about the evolution of macro challenges in Argentina (GMV, TPV, funding costs) over the quarter, the post-election economic outlook, and its impact on MercadoLibre's growth investments in the country, including fulfillment centers and credit cards.

Answer

MercadoLibre CFO Martin de los Santos emphasized Argentina's importance and the company's focus on value proposition, confirming continued investments like a second fulfillment center and credit card launch. He noted a Q3 slowdown due to macro and election instability, leading to increased interest rates and consumption impact, but highlighted solid growth (39% USD revenue, 97% local currency, 34% items sold) and 100% credit book growth with healthy metrics, expressing long-term optimism for the profitable market.

Andrew Ruben of Morgan Stanley inquired about the impact of MercadoLibre's recent shipping fee reductions for sellers in Brazil, asking what returns are seen and if sellers reinvest these savings into lower product prices.

Answer

Ariel Szarfsztejn, Commerce President, explained that the change smoothed a 'cliff edge' in the take rate for items above 79 reais. He noted that past experience shows this initiative positively impacts the business by encouraging merchants to lower prices and add more selection to the platform over time. Szarfsztejn confirmed they are happy with the early results and expect the positive impact to strengthen.

Andrew Ruben inquired about the sustainability of MercadoLibre's strong growth and margin trends in Argentina, specifically the drivers behind the acceleration in items sold and contribution profit, and the company's investment plans for the country.

Answer

Ariel Szarfsztejn, EVP of Commerce, and Martin de Los Santos, CFO, attributed Argentina's performance to a weak prior-year comparison, market share gains from an enhanced value proposition, and a stabilizing macroeconomic environment. They noted that lower inflation and interest rates boosted the credit book's growth and profitability. Osvaldo Giménez, EVP of Fintech, added that major credit card investments are currently focused on Brazil and Mexico, not yet Argentina.

Andrew Ruben asked about MercadoLibre's credit risk appetite in Brazil amid rising interest rates and the potential impact on the broader ecosystem if the company were to adopt a more cautious credit issuance approach.

Answer

Osvaldo Giménez (Executive) stated that while there are no signs of credit portfolio deterioration, with December having the lowest first payment default on record, the company has taken cautious measures like reducing micro card issuance and tightening payback periods. Martin de Los Santos (CFO) added that the credit books remain very healthy, justifying the 74% YoY portfolio growth, but affirmed their willingness to slow down if market conditions change, highlighting the portfolio's short duration as a key source of flexibility.

Andrew Ruben asked for details on the significant shipping investments, specifically the time it takes for a new distribution center to ramp up to full productivity. He also inquired about any new capabilities these facilities provide and how current network capacity compares to demand expectations for the upcoming holiday season.

Answer

Executive Ariel Szarfsztejn stated that fulfillment investments are driven by future demand expectations, increasing fulfillment penetration in Brazil, and normalizing capacity in Mexico. He acknowledged that new centers cause short-term cost pressures as they ramp up but are crucial for long-term growth. He expressed confidence that the expanded capacity is sufficient to handle peak holiday demand and support future business growth across different regions.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley requested an update on the B2B business, including the overall health of B2B customers and any behavioral changes observed due to food deflation, particularly its impact on sales volumes and stock management.

Answer

CEO Belmiro Gomes explained that B2B customer behavior differs from B2C; during deflation, B2B customers reduce purchase volumes to avoid stock losses, entering a 'cautious mode.' He noted that B2B customers, often impacted by low income and lack of cash, operate with short stock cycles and have a demand for credit. While some categories might not see increased purchases despite price drops, the company has found opportunities to increase margins in certain areas.

Andrew Ruben requested an update on the B2B business, specifically regarding the general health of the B2B customer segment and any observed behavioral changes from B2B customers due to food category deflation, and how these changes are impacting results.

Answer

Belmiro Gomes (CEO, Assaí Atacadista) explained that B2B customers reduce purchase volumes during deflation due to fear of stock devaluation, leading to cautious inventory management and short stock cycles. He noted that B2B customers are also impacted by a lack of cash and low income, and that in some categories, price drops do not necessarily stimulate increased B2B purchases.

Andrew Ruben of Morgan Stanley asked for the company's view on potential consolidation in the Cash & Carry sector. He questioned if the 10-store opening plan for 2026 was purely organic or could include M&A, and what macro or industry conditions would be needed to facilitate consolidation.

Answer

CEO Belmiro de Gomes clarified that the store opening plans for 2025 and 2026 are entirely organic. While the company monitors M&A possibilities, the primary focus is on deleveraging. He believes that the current high cost of capital in Brazil is a significant hindrance to market consolidation, as potential buyers are leveraged. A more favorable interest rate environment and a stabilization of consumer purchasing power would be necessary for consolidation to become more likely.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley inquired about the four new regional distribution centers planned for H2 2025, asking about the scale of ramp-up expenses for marketing and hiring, and whether the ramp-up period would differ from past expansions.

Answer

CEO Anthony Hatoum explained that new regions are opened adjacent to existing ones, which mitigates branding risks and shortens the ramp-up period. CFO Eduardo Pizzuto added that associated expenses are primarily for personnel, transport, and training, and that these expansions ultimately improve logistical efficiency. They confirmed the ramp-up timeline and process are expected to be consistent with previous openings.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley asked about the four new regional openings planned for the second half of the year. He sought to understand the nature of the ramp-up expenses, such as logistics and marketing, and whether the ramp-up period for these new regions would differ from past openings.

Answer

CEO Anthony Hatoum explained that their strategy is to open new regions adjacent to existing ones, which mitigates branding risk and shortens the ramp-up period. CFO Eduardo Pizzuto added that the primary expenses are related to personnel, transportation, and training. He emphasized that adding regions ultimately improves logistical efficiency and positions the company for further expansion, with no significant changes expected in the ramp-up timeline.

Andrew Ruben inquired about the four new regional openings planned for the second half of the year, asking about the intensity of ramp-up expenses like logistics, marketing, and hiring, and whether the ramp-up period would differ from past openings.

Answer

CEO Anthony Hatoum explained that the company mitigates risk by opening new regions adjacent to existing ones, which leverages brand recognition and shortens the ramp-up period. CFO Eduardo Pizzuto added that the primary expenses are for personnel, transportation, and training, and that adding regions ultimately improves logistical efficiency and strengthens the real estate expansion pipeline.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley asked for perspective on why the company's same-store sales growth spread versus the ANTAD benchmark widened so meaningfully in Q1 compared to Q4.

Answer

Executive Kamal Hatoum attributed the widening outperformance to a continuously improving value proposition and product portfolio that resonates with customers. He emphasized the resilience of their business model, which focuses on basic, non-discretionary goods that consumers continue to buy even when cutting budgets, leading to market share gains.

Andrew Ruben of Morgan Stanley asked for more detail on the store opening guidance. He inquired about the factors that allowed 3B to exceed its 2024 guidance and asked about the scenarios that could lead to hitting the high or low end of the 2025 guidance. He also questioned what the primary operational bottlenecks are for accelerating the pace of store openings even further.

Answer

Executive Kamal Hatoum identified the three key factors for store openings as real estate availability, capital, and human resources. He noted that capital and real estate are not constraints, with the main variable being the time to obtain permits. The 2025 guidance is based on the consistent throughput of their decentralized real estate teams (about 2 stores per month per team) and the planned addition of four new regional teams, which provides confidence in achieving the projected 500-550 new stores.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley asked about the elasticity of demand, specifically whether the sales uplift from price reinvestments is immediate or has a lag. He also inquired about how broader industry sales deceleration and consumer trade-down dynamics affect 3B's performance in the short term.

Answer

Executive Kamal Hatoum explained that the consumer response to price changes varies significantly by category; some effects are immediate, while others can develop over several quarters. He noted that while the broader consumer market may be tightening, 3B has not seen a slowdown and continues to perform strongly, likely benefiting from a combination of consumer trade-down and a continuously improving value proposition, which creates very sticky customers.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley inquired about the performance and returns of the nearly 170 new Proximity stores, including the CapEx per store, and how these results are informing the future expansion strategy.

Answer

Executive Marcelo Pimentel detailed that the Proximity format targets urban customers with a low CapEx of BRL 2.3-3.0 million per store and achieves a return in approximately three years. He highlighted that the store contribution margin EBITDA is strong, often in the double digits, similar to the main Pão de Açúcar banner. The success of this model, along with its future potential for online integration, continues to drive the company's expansion plans.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley requested more detail on the e-commerce business, specifically asking about the performance trends between first-party (1P) and third-party (3P) channels and the key drivers behind the recent improvements in contribution margins.

Answer

Executive Rafael Russowsky detailed the e-commerce turnaround, attributing success to closing the last-mile project 'James' and shifting to a 100% 'ship-from-store' model. This change improved same-day delivery rates to over 75%, reduced logistics costs, and freed up over BRL 180 million in inventory. A key driver for margin improvement was introducing perishables, which now constitute 35% of digital sales. As a result, e-commerce EBITDA margins have moved from near-zero to double-digits. He stated the current channel split is 45% 1P and 55% 3P, with a strategic ambition to grow the 1P business to enhance customer data integration and support the retail media ecosystem.

Andrew Ruben from Morgan Stanley requested more detail on e-commerce performance, asking about the trends between 1P and 3P channels and the key drivers behind the improvement in contribution margins.

Answer

Executive Rafael Russowsky detailed the e-commerce turnaround, attributing success to closing the James last-mile project and shifting to a 100% ship-from-store model. This change improved delivery times to over 75% same-day, reduced logistics costs, lowered inventory by over BRL 180 million, and enabled the sale of perishables, which now constitute 35% of digital sales. He stated the current 1P/3P split is 45%/55%, with a strategic ambition to grow the 1P base to enhance customer data collection and positively impact retail media and overall margin.

Inquired about the differing FX-neutral booking growth rates between Brazil and Mexico, the impact of currency weakness on travel demand, and the strategy and capabilities required for B2B expansion into new geographies outside of Latin America.

Answer

The company explained that FX is currently impacting average selling prices (ASPs) more than transaction volumes, and the different growth rates between Brazil and Mexico are due to the intrinsic characteristics of each market, particularly the domestic vs. international mix. For B2B expansion, the company plans to leverage its existing adaptable technology platforms (HTML, API, and white-label) to expand globally, noting that the technology's flexibility is a key competitive advantage that doesn't require significant new investment for expansion.