Andrew Strelzik

Andrew Strelzik followed up on internal improvements, asking where Tyson stands today versus its operational goals across the business and where meaningful opportunities for further internal improvements still exist.

Answer

CEO Donnie King stated that improvements are being pursued across every facet of every business and function, including corporate, by challenging existing processes and utilizing more technology. He emphasized that while the business is running very well, there's ample opportunity to improve capacity utilization, grow the business, and be more targeted with spending, driven by an ROIC mentality, indicating the company has not peaked in performance.

Andrew Strelzik asked for an update on the screwworm situation in Mexico, including any signposts or milestones to watch for a potential reopening of the border.

Answer

COO Devin Cole stated that beyond publicly released incidents near the border, there's no additional information, noting that cold temperatures might help prevent insect movement. He indicated that the situation would be monitored in the spring but offered no insight into when the government might reopen the border. Andrew Strelzik then inquired about Tyson Foods' internal improvements, where operations stand compared to desired levels, and where meaningful opportunities for further internal improvements still exist. President and CEO Donnie King explained that improvements are being pursued across every facet of every business and function, including corporate, by challenging existing practices and leveraging technology. He stated that while the business is running very well, ample opportunities remain to improve capacity utilization, grow the business, and be more targeted with MAP and promotional spend, emphasizing an ROIC mentality and that the company has not peaked in performance.

Andrew Strelzik asked for more precise details on the drivers behind the Q4 chicken performance, specifically what led to a step-up in relative industry performance and if there was a step function in internal operational performance. He also inquired about how potential beef imports into the U.S. have been factored into the 2026 outlook and their expected impact on the business.

Answer

CEO Donnie King attributed the Q4 chicken performance to three years of focused work, aiming to be the best chicken company in America. He cited improvements in yield, live performance (including genetics), capacity utilization, and a company-wide attack on costs and non-value-added activities. Regarding beef imports, King explained that imports, primarily boneless beef from markets like Australia, are up about 20% and largely end up in grinds. He noted that exports are down about 10%, and consumer demand for grinds remains strong, even as they trade down from muscle cuts within beef.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked about the expected magnitude of the beef herd recovery compared to prior cycles and its implications for long-term profit potential. He also sought quantification of efficiency gains in Prepared Foods and Chicken.

Answer

Group President Brady Stewart noted that forecasting the beef cycle is challenging due to its prolonged nature and resilient demand, making it difficult to gauge how mid-cycle profitability will compare to the past. President & CEO Donnie King highlighted that the beef team has removed over $100 million in controllable costs this year. Regarding efficiencies, Stewart confirmed a sustained process is in place for Prepared Foods, while King spoke broadly about an enterprise-wide focus on operational excellence.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets sought more detail on the uncertainties and investments factored into the Chicken segment's outlook. He also asked if the company has observed any changes in export trade flows related to tariffs.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway confirmed an incremental investment of around $100 million in FY25 for the Chicken segment, weighted to the second half. An executive clarified the guidance reflects being at or above the midpoint of the range. Regarding tariffs, CEO Donnie King stated that while short-term disruptions are possible, they do not expect global protein consumption to change and have factored potential impacts into their guidance.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets questioned the drivers for the Prepared Foods guidance, including pricing and productivity, and asked why the lower end of the Chicken segment's guidance was not raised despite a strong Q1.

Answer

Kyle Narron, Group President of Prepared Foods, expressed confidence in meeting guidance by focusing on distribution growth, innovation, and operational optimization. Regarding the Chicken segment, Wes Morris, Group President of Poultry, stated that management feels good about the midpoint of the guidance and that hitting the low end would require a major extraneous event, such as significant weather or bird health issues.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked to quantify the potential impact of operational improvements in the Beef segment and inquired about the future of capital deployment, including the potential for increased spending or shareholder returns.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway explained that while market spreads are the primary driver in Beef, improvements in controllable areas like labor and yield are meaningful for minimizing losses. On capital allocation, Calaway emphasized continued discipline to reach the leverage target of at or below 2x, with FY25 CapEx guided at $1.0-$1.2 billion. CEO Donnie King added that a key priority is improving the return on capital already invested in the business.

Andrew Strelzik asked if the mix of traffic growth is shifting between new customers and increasing frequency, and how the strategy might evolve to address these two buckets. He also requested clarification on the expected earnings drag from Maggiano's through the back half of the year.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hochman stated that the strategy remains consistent: maintain a great experience to retain existing guests (frequency is stable) and use world-class marketing and value to attract new guests who quickly adopt existing guest frequency patterns, leading to sustainable growth. CFO Mika Ware indicated that Maggiano's expectations remain largely unchanged, with same-store sales likely in the negative mid-single-digit range for the back half of the year, continuing to be a drag on margins year-over-year.

Andrew Strelzik sought clarification on the earnings drag from Maggiano's through the back half of FY26.

Answer

Mika Ware, CFO of Brinker International, stated that Maggiano's expectations within the guidance remain largely unchanged, with same-store sales projected to be in the negative mid-single-digit range for the back half of FY26. She confirmed that Maggiano's is expected to continue to be a drag on overall margins year-over-year.

Andrew Strelzik asked about Brinker's pricing strategy, specifically how it's implemented across the menu in a challenging environment, and requested an update on new store growth plans, including learnings and long-term unit growth potential.

Answer

Mika Ware, EVP and CFO of Brinker International, explained their multi-layered pricing strategy, which includes tiered pricing across regions and specific item elasticity analysis, informed by a revenue growth team partnered with Deloitte. Kim Sanders, VP of Investor Relations, stated that they are building a team to evaluate new unit growth opportunities for both Chili's and Maggiano's, confirming potential for 'a lot more Chili's' and more Maggiano's, with a focus on the normal full street-side footprint for Chili's.

Andrew Strelzik asked about Chili's pricing strategy implementation, specifically if it's menu-wide or focused on premium items, and an update on new store growth plans, including learnings and long-term unit growth potential.

Answer

CFO Mika Ware explained that Chili's employs a multi-layered pricing strategy, utilizing different tiers across regions and considering item elasticities and competition. VP of Investor Relations Kim Sanders stated that a new team is evaluating new unit growth opportunities for both Chili's and Maggiano's, with expectations to ramp up growth, particularly for Chili's, but no specific numbers are available yet.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the evolution of future investments, particularly in labor, inquiring what operators are asking for to keep up with traffic growth and where the biggest opportunities lie.

Answer

CFO Mika Ware described it as a journey, moving from initial staffing increases to now making more strategic investments in hours to improve guest and team member experiences. CEO Kevin Hochman added that all investments are tied to growing the business and improving four-wall economics, and decisions are made in partnership with field leadership to ensure they accelerate the business.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets asked if there are any other large-scale operational investments being considered beyond fiscal 2025, given the sustained strength in traffic trends.

Answer

CFO Mika Ware explained that the leadership team constantly evaluates investment opportunities but feels the current plans, including the accelerated TurboChef rollout, are the right ones for now. CEO Kevin Hochman added that the business is evolving rapidly with the traffic influx. While there is no line of sight to another major investment right now, they remain agile and will respond to the needs of the restaurants as they learn more about operating at higher volumes, using operator feedback to guide capital deployment.

Andrew Strelzik inquired about the future evolution of the marketing strategy over the next few years and whether the company is considering altering the sequence of its initiatives, such as moving away from the Big Smasher campaign.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hochman explained that the marketing budget will likely grow with sales, and the team will continue to deploy funds across TV and social media based on performance. He stated that while the plan is to pivot from the Big Smasher campaign in Q4, they will stick with it as long as it continues to deliver strong results, acknowledging that the business's success could alter the timing of future initiatives.

Andrew Strelzik asked if it was surprising that Olive Garden's delivery business was tracking with its broader off-premise business, given the different guest profile and early incrementality. He also inquired about the changing CapEx guidance, asking if it's entirely due to new units and the realistic timeline to push towards the higher end of the unit growth range.

Answer

CEO Rick Cardenas stated it was not surprising, as delivery guests are more similar to off-premise guests (who are already higher frequency than on-premise guests), and he expects similar ratios across other brands. CFO Raj Vennam explained that the CapEx increase is due to earlier-than-planned openings and investments in filling the pipeline for the next fiscal year. He noted that the updated framework reflects a 3%-4% unit growth contribution from new units, and Darden expects to operate within that range.

Andrew Strelzik questioned if Olive Garden's delivery sales tracking with the broader off-premise business was surprising, given the different guest profile and early incrementality. He also asked about the change in CapEx guidance, specifically if it's entirely due to new units and the timeline for pushing towards the higher end of the unit growth range.

Answer

CEO Rick Cardenas was not surprised, explaining that delivery guests are more similar to off-premise guests (higher frequency) than on-premise, expecting similar ratios across brands. CFO Raj Vennam attributed the CapEx change to earlier-than-planned openings and pipeline development for the next fiscal year, confirming the updated framework reflects 3-4% unit growth contribution.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the outlook for marketing spend in fiscal 2026 and over the long term. He also asked for an update on progress and drivers for improving speed of service.

Answer

President & CEO Rick Cardenas and CFO Raj Vennam indicated that marketing spend is expected to grow faster than sales by 10-20 basis points, viewed as an investment with a positive return. Regarding speed of service, Cardenas described it as being in the 'early innings' of a long-term effort to reverse an industry trend. He noted that while progress has been made and all brands are faster, it will take time to fully implement changes across the system.

Andrew Strelzik asked for details on the drivers of the 2.5% total inflation outlook and the expected margin progression for the rest of the year. He also inquired about the performance of Olive Garden's Never Ending Pasta Bowl, particularly the impact of protein add-ons.

Answer

Executive Rajesh Vennam detailed that H2 inflation will be higher than H1, with Q4 being the peak, driven by beef, chicken, and seafood turning inflationary. Executive Ricardo Cardenas noted the pasta promotion's protein buy-ups and refills were at record levels and exceeded expectations, contributing to Olive Garden's positive mix, but he did not quantify the specific sales impact.

Andrew Strelzik (question asked by Yan Gao) asked if refinements to the marketing media mix are sufficient given Dave & Buster's high brand awareness, or if increased marketing investment is being considered. He also inquired about the biggest learnings from the refined remodel prototype and if the 700 basis point outperformance still holds.

Answer

CEO Tarun Lal stated that the focus is on data-driven media planning and placement, optimizing the mix across linear TV, connected TV, and digital to improve conversion, not just reach. He confirmed that the 700 basis point positive impact from remodels still holds, noting that learnings involved optimizing capital investment by focusing on elements directly impacting guest experience and eliminating ineffective spend. CFO Darin Harper reinforced the commitment to responsible capital expenditure management.

Andrew Strelzik asked CEO Tarun Lal to compare and contrast the current Dave & Buster's transformation with his prior turnaround experiences, focusing on similarities and differences. He also questioned the company's CapEx discipline, particularly continuing double-digit new store growth amidst current challenges, and the 40% return claims.

Answer

CEO Tarun Lal highlighted similarities in addressing brand distinctiveness, value perception, culture, and brand positioning, while noting the entertainment business adds complexity. CFO Darin Harper reaffirmed the 40% year-one cash-on-cash returns and the ability to open new stores at $9-10 million net CapEx. CEO Tarun Lal added that 6-7% growth is not a distraction and energizes the team.

Andrew Strelzik asked Tarun Lal to compare Dave & Buster's turnaround challenges to his past experiences, focusing on similarities and differences given the unique entertainment component. He also inquired about plans to evolve 'poor CapEx discipline' and the strategy of continuing double-digit new store growth amidst core business challenges.

Answer

Tarun Lal (CEO) highlighted similarities in business transformations (lost distinctiveness, value perception, guest-first culture) but noted the unique complexity of D&B's entertainment business. Darin Harper (CFO) reiterated 40% year-one cash-on-cash returns for new units at $9-$10 million net CapEx. Tarun Lal (CEO) added that 6-7% growth from new units is not a distraction, energizes the team, and international franchising offers significant growth opportunities.

Andrew Strelzik asked Tarun Lal, CEO, to compare Dave & Buster's current challenges to his prior turnaround experiences, highlighting similarities and differences, particularly concerning the entertainment component. He also questioned the company's CapEx discipline and the rationale for continuing double-digit new store growth amidst comp pressure.

Answer

Tarun Lal, CEO & Board Director, identified similarities in needing to sharpen brand distinctiveness, improve value perception, and foster a guest-first culture. He noted the entertainment business's complexity as a key difference. Darin Harper, CFO, reaffirmed strong 40% year-one cash-on-cash returns for new stores at $9-10 million net CapEx. Tarun Lal added that 6-7% growth is not a distraction and energizes the team.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets questioned which specific initiatives were the biggest contributors to the comp improvement and asked if the company needed to reinvest costs back into the business.

Answer

CFO Darin Harper credited improved traffic, driven by more effective marketing and the popular Eat & Play Combo, for the sales momentum. Interim CEO Kevin Sheehan stated that he does not see a need for major cost reinvestment, emphasizing a strategy of spending 'smarter' on tested initiatives and maintaining lean management, noting that top-line growth will improve profitability.

Andrew Strelzik inquired about the cost structure implications of the 'back to basics' strategy, the updated remodel cadence for FY25, and whether the company has identified a value proposition issue on either the amusement or food and beverage side of the business.

Answer

Interim CEO Kevin Sheehan stated the 'back to basics' strategy focuses on smarter operational execution, like shifting marketing to TV and improving the menu, without a significant change to margins. CFO Darin Harper added that 16 remodels are planned for FY25. Regarding value, Sheehan mentioned testing new game-play value propositions, while Harper noted a focus on driving food attach via the Eat & Play Combo rather than taking discrete price increases.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets asked if the company has considered temporarily slowing its new store opening pace to focus on improving core business comps and cash flow. He also asked about the timeline for realizing the full benefits of the marketing optimization initiative, which was previously identified as a major opportunity.

Answer

CFO Darin Harper stated that there are no plans to slow new store openings, citing their 'phenomenal returns' and the company's high confidence in its core strategic initiatives. On marketing, he admitted the area has been challenging and that building the foundational data and analytics infrastructure took longer than expected. He explained that after overcorrecting to a nearly all-digital media mix, the company is now rebalancing its spend and expects to see the benefits of these new strategies in Q4 and into the next year.

Andrew Strelzik questioned if the company would consider slowing its new store opening pace to focus on improving core business comps. He also asked for the timeline on when the full benefits of the marketing optimization strategy would be realized.

Answer

CFO Darin Harper stated there are no plans to slow new store openings due to their 'phenomenal returns.' On marketing, he admitted it has been a challenging area and that building the foundational data infrastructure took longer than expected. He noted they are now applying learnings about media mix and targeting, but did not provide a specific timeline for full benefit realization, suggesting it's an ongoing process of improvement.

Jared Hludzinski, on behalf of Andrew Strelzik, asked about opportunities to improve returns on remodels, how stores are prioritized for remodeling, the progress of the marketing optimization initiative, and the drivers of the 25% growth in loyalty members.

Answer

CEO Christopher Morris explained that the team is continuously looking for value engineering opportunities to improve remodel returns and is building plans to potentially accelerate the pace in FY25. He stated they are in the very early stages of marketing optimization. For loyalty, Morris attributed the 25% membership growth to a focused effort on sign-ups and engagement, citing the loyalty-fenced 'half-off food' promotion as a key driver. He also noted that loyalty members show significantly higher frequency in remodeled stores.

Andrew Strelzik asked to quantify the margin headwind created by the mix shift towards larger entrees and steaks. He also inquired why pricing increases have been stepping up in recent rounds, despite wage growth expectations coming down, asking what operators are citing as the driving factors.

Answer

Michael Bailen, VP of Investor Relations, quantified the mix shift as a 20-30 basis point negative impact on food and beverage as a percentage of sales, but noted it was net neutral to profit dollars due to higher sales prices. Jerry Morgan, CEO, explained that pricing decisions are based on candid conversations with operators about local community factors, including labor, commodities, utilities, and the competitive landscape, with a focus on protecting the value perception of the business.

Andrew Strelzik asked to quantify the margin headwind created by the mix shift towards larger entrees and steaks, and the rationale behind recent price increases despite lower wage growth expectations.

Answer

Michael Bailen, VP of Investor Relations, quantified the mix shift to larger entrees and steaks as a 20-30 basis point negative impact on food and beverage costs as a percentage of sales, but noted it was net neutral to profit dollars. Jerry Morgan, CEO, explained that pricing decisions are based on candid conversations with operators about local community factors, including labor, commodities, utilities, and competitive dynamics, with a focus on protecting the value proposition.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked about Texas Roadhouse's current price gaps against its competitors compared to historical levels. He also requested clarification on the menu pricing that will be in effect for the upcoming quarters.

Answer

CEO Gerald Morgan stated that the company feels comfortable with its value proposition and its price gap versus competitors, noting that value includes portion size and execution, not just price. Michael Bailen, Senior Director & Head of IR, clarified the pricing cadence: 2.3% in Q3, rising to 3.1% in Q4 after a 1.7% increase is added and an older 0.9% increase rolls off.

Andrew Strelzik asked if Texas Roadhouse is beginning to identify more tangible operational benefits, such as improved throughput or labor efficiency, from its ongoing kitchen technology rollout.

Answer

CEO Gerald Morgan responded that while they are learning from the new systems, it is too early to discuss measurable efficiencies until the rollout is fully complete. He emphasized that employees love the digital kitchen for workflow management and the new guest system for optimizing floor plans and wait times.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked about the off-premise business, specifically the to-go channel, and whether the company has plans to focus on it as an incremental growth driver in 2025.

Answer

Executive Michael Bailen noted that to-go demand remains strong, with its mix percentage increasing year-over-year to 13% in Q4 as operators improve execution. CFO David Monroe added that to-go sales saw a further increase in the first seven weeks of 2025, likely due to factors like illness preventing in-person dining. CEO Gerald Morgan clarified they are holding their position on delivery, limiting it to Jaggers, most Bubba's, and one Texas Roadhouse for now.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked how the volumes and margins of the acquired franchise stores compare to the company average. He also inquired if the company's thinking on third-party delivery has evolved.

Answer

Executive Michael Bailen stated the acquired stores will be accretive to average weekly sales, adding about 0.5% to AUVs, and are roughly neutral to margin percentage. CEO Gerald Morgan said their stance on third-party delivery for the core Texas Roadhouse brand is unchanged, preferring to grow sales through their dining rooms and proprietary to-go business, though they do use it for Jaggers and most Bubba's locations.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO asked for color on where Bunge is already seeing "strong execution" despite ongoing integration work, and inquired if there are any unusual seasonality or abnormal factors in the back half of 2025 (Q3/Q4) that should be considered when modeling for 2026.

Answer

Gregory Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer, attributed strong execution to connecting Viterra's origination with Bunge's crushing systems, filling gaps in the global footprint (e.g., Argentina), and improved transportation and logistics by viewing the combined system holistically. He noted early wins from added liquidity and faster internal operations. John Knepel, Chief Financial Officer, stated there were no unusual anomalies in Q3/Q4 2025 results, but acknowledged market uncertainty makes predicting 2026 difficult, with more clarity expected by the Q4 call.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets asked for clarification on Viterra's pro forma earnings, which had raised some concern, and questioned the global implications of the U.S. RVO on crush margins in other regions.

Answer

CEO Greg Heckman acknowledged Viterra's pre-close challenges but reaffirmed the deal's strategic rationale, emphasizing the combined company's enhanced network and strength. CFO John Neppl noted that synergies are not yet captured in pro forma numbers and expressed optimism about future cost and commercial opportunities. Regarding the RVO, Heckman stated the combined global platform is even better positioned to manage supply and demand shifts.

Andrew Strelzik asked how Bunge is managing its forward book in the current soft environment and requested help in framing a 'normal' earnings base for the business given current market disruptions.

Answer

CEO Greg Heckman explained that market uncertainty has pushed both farmers and customers toward more spot-based transactions, reducing the size of the forward book. CFO John Neppl noted that the current environment is more challenging than a typical mid-cycle, making it difficult to quantify a 'normal' earnings base, but cited headwinds in Merchandising and the timing of project contributions as key factors impacting the current outlook.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the risk of near-term market uncertainties lingering beyond Q1 and whether 2025 should be viewed as a trough earnings year from which the company will grow.

Answer

CEO Gregory Heckman confirmed the guidance calendarization (40% of earnings in H1) reflects the tough near-term environment, with improvement expected later in the year. He agreed that 2025 should be a base to build from, expressing excitement for the commercial synergies that will be unlocked once the Bunge and Viterra teams can collaborate post-merger, which will drive future growth.

Andrew Strelzik inquired about the durability of soy crush margins, the company's ability to capture them, and any adjustments to the Q4 guidance. He also asked for a high-level outlook for 2025 relative to a typical year.

Answer

CEO Greg Heckman noted that strong global demand for meal and oil supports crush margins, despite regional variations like challenges in Argentina. CFO John Neppl clarified that Q3's strength may have pulled about $0.15 in earnings from Q4, with the sale of the sugar JV removing another $0.15 from the Q4 forecast. For 2025, Neppl expects Refined and Specialty Oils to perform above baseline, with potential in crush, while merchandising remains below baseline.

Andrew Strelzik questioned ADM's outlook for Ag Services, noting its stronger-than-anticipated performance in Q3 but a softer outlook for Q4. He asked if there was a timing dynamic in Q3, what factors changed for Q4, and whether the subdued outlook is a temporary Q4 issue or if it might persist into 2026.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of ADM, attributed Q3's strength in Ag Services to good North American volumes in meal and corn exports, and the absence of last year's Brazil take-or-pay issue. He explained that Q4 margin opportunities are more challenging due to the need for clarity on the China trade deal (details like calendar vs. marketing year, sold vs. shipped, prices). He noted that farmer selling is slow globally due to uncertainty, with China trade deal and biofuel policy clarity being the two big events to move commodity prices. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, added that while Q3 saw good execution, Q4 is a transition quarter, and once policy clarity emerges in 2026, it sets ADM up well for 2026 and 2027, with the team continuing self-help initiatives.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the outlook for Ag Services, noting Q3 2025 was stronger than anticipated but Q4 is projected to be softer. He sought to understand if there was a timing dynamic in Q3, what has changed for Q4, and whether the subdued outlook is a temporary Q4 issue or if it might extend into 2026.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO, ADM, attributed Q3 2025 strength in Ag Services to good North American export volumes for meal and corn, and the absence of prior-year take-or-pay issues in Brazil. For Q4, margin opportunities are more challenging due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the China trade deal details and farmer reluctance to sell. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, ADM, added that strong execution and ADM's self-help agenda contributed to Q3 results. He views Q4 as a transition quarter, expecting 2026 and 2027 to be strong once policy clarity emerges.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked for more detail on the expected earnings split between Q3 and Q4 2025 and whether the Q4 run rate could serve as a reliable starting point for 2026 forecasts.

Answer

CEO Juan Luciano and CFO Monish Patolawala explained that due to the timing of recent favorable biofuel policy updates, most of the positive impact will be seen in Q4, leading to a Q3/Q4 earnings split of roughly one-third to two-thirds. Patolawala cautioned that year-over-year comparisons will be affected by significant insurance proceeds in the prior year's second half. Luciano noted that while the 2025 exit rate often informs the 2026 entry rate, it is too early to annualize the Q4 forecast.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked for more clarity on the expected earnings split between Q3 and Q4 2025 and inquired if the Q4 run rate could serve as a reliable starting point for 2026 forecasts.

Answer

CEO Juan Luciano indicated a back-half earnings split favoring Q4, driven by improved crush margins and the Decatur East plant's return. CFO Monish Patolawala clarified the split would be approximately one-third in Q3 and two-thirds in Q4, cautioning analysts to factor in prior-year insurance proceeds and potential ethanol softness. Both executives suggested it was too early to annualize the Q4 run rate for a 2026 forecast.

Andrew Strelzik followed up on the RVO, asking if ADM is assuming a specific number or range and what the financial impact would be if crush margins do not recover in the second half.

Answer

CEO Juan Luciano mentioned the industry's ask is around 5.2 billion gallons for biomass-based diesel and that the administration understands its importance. CFO Monish Patolawala quantified the risk, stating that if replacement margins did not improve by year-end, it would represent a $0.50 per share headwind to earnings.

Andrew Strelzik inquired about ADM's outlook for vegetable and soybean oil demand following the 45Z guidance, and asked about the expected first-half versus second-half earnings split for the year.

Answer

CEO Juan Luciano described the 45Z guidance as constructive but noted uncertainty remains until it is finalized. He anticipates a challenging first half due to excess crush capacity and policy ambiguity, but expects margins to improve in the second half as regulatory clarity emerges and strong fundamental demand from livestock and global biofuel mandates takes hold. This will create a different first-half/second-half earnings pattern than in typical years.

Andrew Strelzik asked for an explanation of the recent decline in U.S. crush margins and what it signals for the future. He also questioned if the current earnings base, excluding one-time items, could support growth in 2025 given ADM's internal productivity actions.

Answer

Chair and CEO Juan Luciano attributed the crush margin pressure to a combination of high global supply from Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S., coupled with regulatory uncertainty in the biofuels market. He stated that ADM is focusing on controllable factors like productivity, cost, and cash management. Both Luciano and EVP and CFO Monish Patolawala emphasized that it was too early to provide a 2025 forecast but that the immediate priority is executing on the basics of cost, cash, and capital.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets questioned the outlook for the Brazil beef business amid U.S. tariffs and inquired about the U.S. prepared foods strategy, specifically the expected volume increase from recent investments and the approach to M&A versus organic growth.

Answer

Global CEO Gilberto Tomazoni stated the impact of U.S. tariffs is not yet fully clear but believes the global platform allows for redirection of products, mitigating the impact. Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS Foods USA, estimated the new projects would significantly increase prepared foods capacity and noted the company evaluates both organic growth and acquisitions based on market opportunities.

Andrew Strelzik asked for a framework to understand the EBITDA potential for the second half of 2025 and the run-rate into 2026, given numerous moving parts like asset sales and decarbonization. He also inquired about the strategic rationale for selling the company's stake in the Darrelson JV.

Answer

CFO Phil Boggs outlined a stronger back-half EBITDA outlook, supported by mid-teens crush margins and a Q4 carbon opportunity of $20-25 million. Interim Principal Executive Officer Michelle Mapes and EVP, Operations & Technology Chris Osowski explained the Darrelson JV sale was a strategic decision to exit a non-core asset and sharpen focus on operational excellence within their core facilities.

Andrew Strelzik asked for a framework to understand Green Plains' EBITDA potential for the second half of 2025 and the run-rate into 2026, and also questioned the rationale behind selling the non-core Darrelson JV stake.

Answer

CFO Phil Boggs projected a stronger EBITDA outlook, with mid-teens consolidated crush margins and a $20-25 million contribution from carbon monetization in Q4. Interim CEO Michelle Mapes and EVP, Operations & Technology Chris Osowski explained the Darrelson JV sale was a data-driven decision to exit a non-core asset and focus on optimizing existing operations.

Andrew Strelzik asked for a high-level reflection on the company's multi-year strategy across protein, clean sugar, and carbon, and management's confidence in these pillars to drive future EBITDA. He also inquired about the future approach to hedging and the pacing of SG&A reductions.

Answer

Michelle Mapes, Interim Principal Executive Officer, reaffirmed commitment to the core pillars of protein, corn oil, and carbon, acknowledging protein has been slower than expected but is now gaining traction. She emphasized the current focus is on execution and profitability, not a strategy shift. Imre Havasi, SVP of Trading, stated hedging levels are opportunity-driven, not based on a fixed target. Phil Boggs, an executive, detailed that SG&A reductions will be fully reflected starting in Q3, targeting a $12-13 million quarterly run rate for corporate and trade functions.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the outlook for the base ethanol market beyond the summer and asked about current demand trends and pricing expectations for corn oil following the 45Z guidance.

Answer

Todd Becker, President and CEO, stated that the ethanol market will likely remain challenging, and a massive margin uplift in 2025 is not expected without further catalysts. For corn oil, he noted significantly increased buyer interest for longer-term contracts at a premium, driven by its low-carbon and CORSIA-certified status, which is a key advantage in the renewable diesel market.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the progress of cross-selling initiatives within the direct delivery channel, asking about current availability and customer uptake.

Answer

CEO Robbert Rietbroek described the company as being 'halfway in that journey.' He noted they have introduced regional spring water case packs and expanded Mountain Valley availability on legacy Primo trucks but have not yet fully rolled out all offerings, such as 5-gallon Saratoga water. He added that results are encouraging, even as the company simultaneously works to simplify its overall product portfolio.

Inquired about the durability of the Home and Office Delivery (HOD) business in a challenging consumer environment, asking for color on retention and churn. Also sought clarification on whether the financial impact of the tornado was factored into guidance.

Answer

The HOD business is performing well, with improving website efficiency and slightly increased customer retention. No negative impact from the macro environment has been observed. Regarding the tornado, the impact on EBITDA is expected to be offset by business interruption insurance, and the net sales impact is seen as a minor timing deferral, thus not altering the overall guidance.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the durability of the Home and Office Delivery (HOD) business in a challenging consumer environment and requested any available color on customer retention or churn.

Answer

CFO David Hass confirmed the HOD business remains in a good position, with no significant slippage in customer accounts and a slight increase in retention post-merger. He highlighted that growth is supported by digital platform consolidation and the cross-selling of premium and regional spring water brands to the legacy Primo Water customer base, which improves route efficiency.

Andrew Strelzik asked for insight into the base business margins excluding synergies for 2025, noting the guidance implies flattish performance, and also requested details on the expected cadence of synergy capture during the year.

Answer

CFO David Hass explained that base margins are expected to be relatively stable in 2025 as the legacy businesses are still being integrated. He stated that significant margin expansion will occur as synergies are realized and volume moves through the newly consolidated network. He later noted synergy capture would be muted in Q1 and ramp from Q2 through Q4.

Andrew Strelzik questioned the outlook for base business margins excluding synergies in 2025 and asked for the expected cadence of synergy realization throughout the year.

Answer

CFO David Hass explained that base margins are expected to see modest expansion as the two legacy businesses are still operating in silos, with significant margin expansion in 2025 coming directly from synergies. He clarified that authentic margin expansion from volume leverage will be more apparent post-2025 once the networks are fully integrated. He also noted synergy capture would be muted in Q1 and ramp up from Q2 through Q4.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets asked what specific initiatives drove the Q2 outperformance in North America and what provides confidence in a reacceleration for the rest of the year despite a soft start to Q3.

Answer

President & CEO Todd Penegor attributed the Q2 success to a combination of factors: the barbell strategy, new innovation like Cheddar Crust, the permanent addition of Shaq-a-Roni, and foundational CRM and loyalty program enhancements. For the second half, he expressed confidence based on a strong innovation pipeline, including a new shareable pizza format and the "Grand Papa" pizza in test, which will help navigate the more cautious consumer environment and improve comps sequentially.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the sequencing of the company's numerous strategic initiatives and which areas are expected to drive the most significant near-term impact.

Answer

President and CEO Todd Penegor prioritized modernizing the tech stack as 'job one,' specifically revamping the loyalty program to drive repeat purchases, which has shown encouraging test results. He noted that near-term gains will also come from a balanced marketing calendar, while long-term wins will stem from improving core pizza quality, reducing operational complexity, and adopting a 'challenger brand mindset.'

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the new fruit snacks manufacturing line, asking for details on the customer mix and ramp-up timeline. He also questioned the adjusted gross margin progression for the second half of the year, focusing on the impact and recovery from tariff-related headwinds.

Answer

CEO Brian Kocher clarified that the investment is for a new manufacturing line, not a new plant, which is already oversubscribed with demand from existing customers. He stated that aseptic capacity is sufficient for 2026 growth, with a potential new line needed for 2027. Kocher also explained that while tariffs created a timing lag, the impact was covered on the EBITDA line, and the company remains on track with its margin improvement plan.

Andrew Strelzik inquired about the new fruit snacks manufacturing line, asking about the customer mix and the potential implications for plant-based beverage capacity. He also sought clarity on the adjusted gross margin progression for the second half of the year, specifically regarding the tariff headwind in Q3 and the timeline for margin recovery.

Answer

CEO Brian Kocher clarified that the investment is for a new manufacturing line, not a plant, which is already oversubscribed by existing customers due to faster-than-expected category growth. He stated that while aseptic capacity is sufficient for 2026, a new line might be needed for 2027. Kocher also explained that the Q2 gross margin was impacted by a 90 basis point timing lag from tariffs, but without it, the company is on track with its margin expansion goals, and the impact is expected to be covered on an adjusted EBITDA basis.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the new fruit snacks manufacturing line, asking about the customer mix and ramp-up timeline, and its effect on plant-based capacity. He also questioned the adjusted gross margin progression for the latter half of the year, focusing on the impact and recovery from tariff-related headwinds.

Answer

CEO Brian Kocher clarified the $25 million investment is for a new manufacturing line, not a plant, which is already oversubscribed by existing customers. He stated aseptic capacity is sufficient for 2026, with a new line considered for 2027. Kocher also explained the gross margin plan is on track, with the 90 basis point tariff headwind in Q2 being a timing issue that was absorbed at the EBITDA level.

Andrew Strelzik inquired about the drivers behind the accelerating category growth and business pipeline amid a challenging consumer environment, and also asked for details on the company's strategy for passing through potential tariff costs.

Answer

Executive Brian Kocher explained that growth is fueled by the non-discretionary nature of plant-based beverages, the outperformance of their key customers, and the company's ability to capitalize on newly created capacity. Regarding tariffs, Kocher stated that they are treated like other raw material cost changes, with a model to pass through substantially all incremental costs to customers, with whom conversations began in January.

Andrew Strelzik inquired about the sustainability of mid-single-digit growth in the shelf-stable plant-based category, considering potential consumer softness, and asked about capital allocation priorities now that the company has reached its leverage target.

Answer

CEO Brian Kocher expressed confidence in category growth, citing strong performance in club and foodservice channels, enduring usage occasions, and the strength of the fruit snacks business. CFO Greg Gaba stated that given current interest rates, the best use of free cash flow in 2025 is to continue paying down debt, establishing a new, lower leverage target of 2.5x.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets asked if the accelerated revenue growth and margin initiatives would pull forward the timeline for achieving the company's mid-term EBITDA targets. He also inquired about the tone of customer conversations amidst concerns about the broader consumer environment.

Answer

Executive Brian Kocher stated that while the accelerated growth increases their confidence in hitting the mid-term targets, they are focused on communicating what they can see through the end of the current year and are not changing the timeline at this point. Regarding customer conversations, Kocher noted that every category they operate in—plant-based beverages, protein shakes, and fruit snacks—is growing. He explained that their innovation goes beyond new products to include new pack sizes and logistical efficiencies, which helps customers win.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the reasons behind the recent year-over-year decline in pullet placements and the current state of industry production constraints. He also questioned the margin progression in the European business.

Answer

President & Global CEO Fabio Sandri explained the industry is focusing on a younger, more productive layer flock to combat persistent hatchability issues, which remain the primary bottleneck. He noted the industry is increasing live weights to boost production. Regarding Europe, Sandri acknowledged seasonal effects but highlighted that operational consolidation and innovation continue to drive improvements, with Q4 typically being the strongest quarter.

Speaking on behalf of Andrew Strelzik, an analyst asked about the European business, questioning the sustainability of margin expansion and the health of the local consumer. He also asked for an outlook on the Mexico business, considering investments, market fundamentals, and potential consumer hesitation from trade chatter.

Answer

CEO Fabio Sandri stated that European performance growth should continue as the business shifts from integration to innovation-led expansion, supported by a consumer whose wage growth is outpacing inflation. Regarding Mexico, he highlighted long-term growth from capacity expansions, though short-term volatility remains. CFO Matt Galvanoni added that a significant negative FX impact is expected in Q2 compared to a very strong prior-year quarter.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the drivers of the counter-seasonal improvement in Mexico and the margin outlook for 2025. He also inquired about the U.S. breast meat price outlook for the upcoming summer, given current above-average prices.

Answer

CEO Fabio Sandri attributed Mexico's strength to strong domestic demand and volatility in the live bird market, partly due to disease impacting supply. For the U.S., he expects continued strong demand for breast meat due to its significant price advantage over beef, which should support prices into the summer. CFO Matthew Galvanoni added context that Mexico's Q1 2025 results will be lapping a very strong 9.2% margin from Q1 2024.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the operational and market impacts from the recent hurricanes in the Southeast and also questioned the company's capital allocation priorities given its growing cash balance and revised CapEx forecast.

Answer

President and CEO Fabio Sandri detailed the hurricane's impact, noting that while company facilities were largely spared, partner grower houses were severely damaged, requiring a 9-12 month rebuild. He assured that production is being rebalanced to maintain customer service. On capital allocation, Sandri emphasized growth through organic projects and potential M&A as the top priority, but also acknowledged that special dividends are being considered due to the excess cash.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets inquired about current biofuels industry utilization rates and the RIN price level needed to spur more production. He also asked about the company's CapEx plans for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Answer

CFO Robert Day observed that renewable diesel utilization is rising, likely in anticipation of higher RIN prices. On capital allocation, Day reiterated the commitment to lower the debt coverage ratio below 3.0x and keep 2025 CapEx at or below $400 million. CEO Randall Stuewe added that while some growth projects are delayed, they are not capital-starving core assets.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked for the basis of the comment that a preliminary RVO could be announced 'in the next couple of days' and how management handicaps the risks to its annual guidance.

Answer

An executive clarified the RVO timing to 'in the coming days,' expressing optimism based on broad industry alignment rather than specific inside information. CEO Randall Stuewe added that he expects an announcement within 45-60 days. Regarding risks, CFO Bob Day stated that risks to the core business guidance are relatively low given current market momentum, but the biofuels segment carries more uncertainty due to its heavy dependence on government policy.

Andrew Strelzik requested details on the 'operational excellence' initiatives that improved margins and asked if the Food segment's strong sequential EBITDA was due to seasonality or fundamental improvements like demand recovery and destocking.

Answer

An executive attributed operational excellence to ongoing efforts in streamlining and reliability. CEO Randall Stuewe added that adjusting procurement contracts in a deflationary market was key. Regarding the Food segment, an executive confirmed the improvement was driven by the end of a customer destocking cycle and stable margins, not seasonality.

Andrew Strelzik sought clarification on whether the $1.5 billion 2025 earnings framework includes a SAF uplift or specific tax credit assumptions, and asked about the moderating DGD margin capture rate relative to paper margins.

Answer

CEO Randall C. Stuewe described the $1.5 billion figure as an early, somewhat foggy projection, indicating a much-improved environment without detailing specific SAF or tax credit inputs. He explained that matching paper margins is difficult due to timing issues with contracts, but noted that DGD captured about 80% of the non-LCM paper margin in Q3.

Andrew Strelzik asked how Zevia is gauging marketing effectiveness in the near term before it impacts the P&L and inquired about the expected phasing of growth in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Amy Taylor explained that long-term success is measured by user base growth, while near-term effectiveness is gauged via consumer sentiment surveys and brand health trackers. CFO Girish Satya added that for back-half phasing, Q2 and Q3 are peak revenue quarters, Q4 will lap the Walmart pipeline fill, and Q1 and Q3 will have elevated marketing spend.

Inquired about the drivers of the strong Q3 gross margin, whether there were any one-time factors, and if it changes the long-term margin potential. Also asked for details on new promotional strategies, what's working, and the timeline for finalizing the approach.

Answer

The strong gross margin was driven by sustainable improvements in inventory management, reduced obsolete inventory, renegotiated input costs, and SKU rationalization, which has reset the baseline expectation to the mid- to upper-40s range. The company is testing new promotional strategies around frequency and depth, has seen a 15 percentage point increase in lift, and expects to finalize its approach by Q1 2025 after learning from the nationwide Walmart launch.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets questioned why the strong Q1 earnings beat was not fully reflected in the raised full-year guidance. He also asked about the volume growth outlook for the remainder of the year, given tougher comparisons and consumer uncertainty.

Answer

CFO Jim Gray stated the cautious guidance reflects global uncertainty, potential supply chain disruptions, and incremental costs from trade dislocations, including upcoming tariff deadlines. CEO Jim Zallie added that while THS volumes are strong, driven by affordable formulating trends, the company is monitoring unemployment and food inflation. He noted the guidance is 'appropriately cautious' given the unknown macroeconomic backdrop.

Andrew Strelzik noted that the low end of the Texture and Healthful Solutions profit guidance for 2025 is below the company's long-term 8-10% growth algorithm and asked for the reasons. He also inquired about the company's portfolio positioning regarding potential risks from tariffs, trade, and food regulations.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jim Gray attributed the cautious low end of the guidance to potential foreign exchange headwinds from a strong U.S. dollar, particularly in key growth markets, but affirmed the 8-10% algorithm remains the long-term target. President and CEO Jim Zallie and Jim Gray addressed trade risks by highlighting Ingredion's local-for-local manufacturing footprint in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, which mitigates many tariff impacts. They confirmed they are actively scenario planning for any potential changes.

Andrew Strelzik asked where the savings from the recent organizational restructuring are being reinvested and if the amount could be quantified.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Sandeep Reddy stated that the savings are being reinvested into strategic priorities like consumer technology, store technology, and capacity investments. He declined to quantify the amount but confirmed it is fully incorporated into the existing 8% operating profit growth guidance for the year.

Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets noted that labor as a percent of sales was favorable year-over-year for the first time in a while at corporate stores. He asked what drove this shift and if franchisees are likely seeing a similar benefit.

Answer

CFO Sandeep Reddy explained that the favorability in corporate store labor was primarily due to lapping significant wage increases taken in prior periods, rather than a new trend. He cautioned against extrapolating this to the franchise system, as labor rules vary significantly by market. He reiterated the company's commitment to driving profit dollar growth at its company-owned stores over time.

Andrew Strelzik asked about the biggest risks within the new three-year guidance and where the assumptions might prove to be conservative.

Answer

CEO William Newlands identified the duration of consumer concerns as the single biggest risk and variable. He suggested that if consumer sentiment improves faster than anticipated, the company's projections could turn out to be conservative. He stressed that while the company focuses on controllable factors, consumer sentiment remains the most difficult element to predict.

Inquired about the company's strategic positioning regarding potential trade tariffs and asked for an analysis of the beef market dynamics and margin outlook for its operations in Australia and Brazil.

Answer

The company believes its global diversification positions it well to mitigate risks and capture benefits from any potential tariffs. In Australia, recent margin softness was due to temporary climate issues, but the outlook for the positive cattle cycle and strong demand remains. In Brazil, the beef market is seen as balanced with strong demand, and margins are expected to remain consistent with Q4 levels.

Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets asked about the outlook for store closures and questioned why the full-year guidance doesn't imply a stronger second half given the timing of new initiatives.

Answer

CFO Michael Healy stated that the company has action plans for underperforming assets and will continue to assess them, deciding on lease renewals as part of a holistic strategy. Regarding guidance, he explained that while they are hopeful for momentum from initiatives like Aussie 3-Course in the second half, the guidance remains appropriately cautious, assuming the 'choppiness' seen recently persists throughout the year.

Andrew Strelzik inquired if the historical $50 million productivity run rate is still a valid target and asked about the drivers behind Fleming's comparable sales acceleration during the quarter.

Answer

CFO Michael Healy indicated that while productivity remains a key focus through technology and simplification, the historical $50 million annual target is likely too high going forward, though opportunities remain material. CEO Mike Spanos attributed Fleming's success to its status as a 'reputational brand' where the team is exceptionally dialed in on elevating the guest experience, from attentiveness to pacing. He highlighted the new Tampa flagship as an example of the brand's high-energy, high-quality execution.

Asked about the source and timing of increased synergy assumptions from the Sonoma-Cutrer acquisition, the sustainability of recent cost controls, and the plan for reinvestment as the top line improves.

Answer

The increased synergies (up to $10M) come from compensation/organizational leverage and IT consolidation, expected to materialize in fiscal 2025, with no revenue synergies included yet. Cost controls have been focused on discretionary spending, and the company will continue to invest to support its brands for profitable growth.

Asked about the drivers of the strong margin performance, particularly cost management, and its durability. Also questioned the source of increased optimism on synergies from the Sonoma-Cutrer acquisition.

Answer

The Q2 margin was a high point; margins will face pressure in the second half from normalized trade spend. Cost management has been tight on non-essential items and will continue. The increased synergy confidence comes from having more time and better information since the deal was announced. The current environment doesn't change their positive view of the acquisition.