Andrew Wong

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets asked about the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine truce on gas prices and the nitrogen market, and how Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will affect the market.

Answer

EVP & COO Christopher Bohn and EVP Bert Frost opined that a truce is unlikely to quickly restore Russian gas flows to Europe, and European curtailments will likely continue. Regarding CBAM, they see it as a significant opportunity, creating a 'carbon arbitrage' for CF's low-carbon ammonia, which will command a premium and have a cost advantage in the European market.

Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets asked about the potential impact of EU tariffs on Russian UAN trade flows and how CF Industries is approaching pricing conversations for clean ammonia.

Answer

EVP Bert Frost stated that while EU tariffs on Russian products are being discussed, he expects Russian UAN flows to the U.S. to remain at current levels. For clean ammonia, he explained that they are establishing a clear value proposition with customers and intend to have a separate line item for the low-carbon premium, with demand expected to build over time.

Andrew Wong asked how the Blue Point project compares to share buybacks for increasing nitrogen-per-share and questioned its return profile given the significant increase in capital expenditure.

Answer

CEO W. Will defended the project as part of a proven 'winning formula' of investing in the core business at high returns while using excess cash for buybacks. EVP & COO Christopher Bohn added that the project's new ATR technology offers higher production and 50% more carbon capture credits, justifying the cost, while EVP Bert Frost noted a potential market premium for low-carbon products.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets inquired about the future of Europe as the marginal cost producer, considering capacity shutdowns and the CBAM, and how the global cost curve might evolve in the coming years.

Answer

EVP & COO Christopher Bohn projected that Europe's import needs will grow due to high energy costs, and the CBAM will create a significant margin advantage for CF's low-carbon products. He explained that while the cost curve may lower, new supply is unlikely to meet growing demand, meaning some high-cost assets will need to remain online to balance the market.

Andrew Wong asked about the cash generation of Nutrien's phosphate business compared to other segments, and the specific rationale behind the strategic review, inquiring if it's due to the business being better suited for a different operational model or specific asset/outlook concerns.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, explained that the strategic review of the phosphate business, which contributes only about 6% of Nutrien's EBITDA, aligns with the company's focus on simplifying its portfolio to enhance earnings quality and long-term free cash flow. He noted that the review, following other non-core asset divestitures totaling $900 million, will explore a range of alternatives including reconfigured operations, strategic partnerships, and a potential sale, with conclusions expected in 2026.

Andrew Wong asked about the cash generation of the phosphate business compared to other segments, and whether the strategic review is driven by the business's suitability for a different operating model or specific asset/outlook concerns.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, explained that the strategic review aligns with Nutrien's focus on portfolio simplification, quality of earnings, and long-term free cash flow. He noted the phosphate business contributes only about 6% of EBITDA, prompting the review. The company is evaluating a range of alternatives, including reconfigured operations, strategic partnerships, and a potential sale, with conclusions expected in 2026.

Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets asked about current farmer sentiment amid softer commodity prices and how fertilizer affordability, particularly the divergent price movements of N, P, and K, is impacting purchasing decisions.

Answer

President & CEO Ken Seitz acknowledged pressure on grower margins but highlighted strong Q3 field activity. EVP & President - Global Retail Jeff Tarsi added that grower engagement remains high, with farmers investing to protect yields. EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Chris Reynolds noted that the large impending harvest will necessitate nutrient replenishment, and customers are preparing for a strong fall application season, with potash remaining the most affordable nutrient.

Andrew Wong requested an update on the Brazil retail business, asking if it's on track to reach breakeven and what the long-term strategy looks like for 2026 and beyond.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Seitz affirmed the Brazil turnaround is on track for a cash-neutral position in 2025, supported by a strong soybean crop and operational improvements like idling blenders and reducing headcount. Executive Jeff Tarsi added that the focus is on expense management, margin improvement, and inventory reduction, with plans to grow proprietary products. For 2026, Seitz indicated a continuation of the improvement plan while closely monitoring competition from generic crop chemicals.

Andrew Wong questioned the key drivers behind the recent strengthening in potash prices, asking to what extent it is driven by tariff speculation versus fundamental supply issues, and about the sustainability of current prices.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seitz asserted that tariff uncertainty has had little to no impact on current pricing, attributing the strength to market fundamentals. Executive Christopher Reynolds elaborated, noting that despite record global shipments in 2024, channel inventories remain low. He pointed to strong demand and price increases in North America, healthy spot demand in Brazil, and good demand in Asia, supported by strong palm oil prices, as reasons for a constructive outlook on the potash market.

Andrew Wong asked whether it would be more efficient to curtail production at a higher-cost potash mine and consolidate operations to save costs, given the current 80-85% operating rate.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seitz explained that maintaining the six-mine network provides critical production flexibility to meet shifting customer demand between granular and standard-grade products. He asserted that this flexibility is a significant competitive advantage in the current market with shifting trade flows and creates value for shareholders, making a mine curtailment undesirable.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets asked about measures taken to harden assets against hurricane season and whether the recent, extensive work on gypsum handling systems was a newly discovered issue or previously known.

Answer

Bruce Bodine, CEO, President & Director, detailed hurricane preparations, including hardening motor control centers and improving building wind resistance. He explained that the gypsum handling system issue at New Wales was a 'discoverable' that only became a bottleneck when attempting to push production to full rates for the first time in years. He assured that all major planned maintenance for asset health is now complete.

Andrew Wong asked how Mosaic's improving phosphate production would impact market supply-demand balances and pricing over the next 6 to 12 months.

Answer

President and CEO Bruce Bodine stated that even with Mosaic's increased output, the global phosphate market remains supply-constrained. EVP, Commercial Jenny Wang added that strong, pent-up demand from India is expected to absorb any incremental production, and robust demand in Brazil will offset any potential softness in North America.

Andrew Wong inquired about potential future asset monetizations beyond the Ma'aden and Patos de Minas deals, specifically mentioning the Carlsbad mine, and asked if the Ma'aden investment could be monetized before the lockup period expires.

Answer

President and CEO Bruce Bodine confirmed that all assets are under review for returns and that the company is optimistic about news regarding the Carlsbad mine. Luciano Pires, EVP and CFO, added that while there are ways to monetize the Ma'aden shares before the lockup, liquidity constraints would likely limit the size of any such transaction.

Andrew Wong sought clarification on the 7.8 to 8.2 million-ton phosphate production run rate, asking if it represents an annualized rate without turnarounds and what a realistic total annual production would be. He also asked about demand assumptions for 2025 based on pricing.

Answer

President and CEO Bruce Bodine clarified that the 7.8 to 8.2 million-ton range is an expected annualized production number that already accounts for historically normal turnarounds and weather disruptions. He stated that an 8 million-ton figure is a reasonable average realized number. Regarding demand, Jenny Wang, EVP of Commercial, suggested that 2025 demand growth is more dependent on supply availability than on price reductions, as the market remains supply-constrained.

Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets asked for insight into the most likely financing path for the project, questioning the preference between a strategic partner, debt, or equity. He also inquired about the development of the project's construction team and any recent key hires.

Answer

CCO Travis McPherson and CEO Leigh Curyer explained that the company has no single preferred financing path and is keeping all options open to optimize returns and maintain leverage to uranium prices, with a decision likely post-approval in 2026. Leigh Curyer noted that the project team has been strategically built since 2017 and is now 'over employed' to ensure immediate construction readiness upon receiving final approvals, emphasizing an owner-operator model with direct responsibility.

Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets inquired about the company's preferred financing path, asking if a strategic partner is the most likely route, supplemented by debt or equity. He also asked for an update on the project team's composition and any recent key hires in preparation for construction.

Answer

CEO Leigh Curyer and CCO Travis McPherson explained that NextGen has no single preferred financing path and is keeping all options open, including project equity, debt, and prepayments, to optimize value and maintain leverage to uranium prices. Regarding the team, Curyer stated they are well-staffed and 'probably over employed' with top-tier talent to ensure immediate construction readiness post-approval, operating on a constructor-operator model.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets questioned if upcoming offtake contracts would maintain a preference for spot-market price exposure and if utilities were agreeable to these terms. He also asked about the impact of the recent Canadian federal election on the project's approval timeline and government discussions.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Travis McPherson confirmed the strategy remains focused on maximizing exposure to future prevailing prices, a structure utilities understand and are open to. CEO Leigh Curyer added that this strategy reflects the unique technical and economic strengths of the Rook I project. Regarding the election, Curyer expressed encouragement over the new Prime Minister's comments on streamlining approvals for major projects, which could be a positive development, but noted the hearing dates are firmly set.

Andrew Wong inquired about NexGen's long-term development strategy for the Patterson Lake area, asking if shared infrastructure with nearby projects makes sense, and questioned if the company's uranium marketing strategy has evolved.

Answer

CEO Leigh Curyer stated that while synergies exist for other deposits to use the Rook I mill, NexGen is currently focused on its Arrow and PCE discoveries. Curyer and CCO Travis MacPherson reaffirmed their strategy to sell under contracts heavily weighted to market prices at delivery, noting that a recent surge in interest from new utilities validates this approach.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets asked about the nuclear industry's capacity to deliver on the large new build pipeline and sought an update on uranium contracting discussions, including pricing terms.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Grant Isaac expressed confidence in the industry's capacity, emphasizing that a commitment to standardization and sequencing is the key to success. On contracting, he noted that low current activity defers demand into a riskier future, increasing pricing power. He confirmed Cameco remains disciplined, seeking contracts with floors starting at $70/lb and ceilings around $130/lb, escalated.

Andrew Wong inquired about the nuclear growth opportunity in India for Cameco and Westinghouse, particularly regarding past liability issues. He also asked if utility customers still view inventory held by physical uranium funds as a viable future source of supply.

Answer

CEO Tim Gitzel confirmed India's ambitious plans and stated that Cameco has maintained a strong business-to-business supply relationship since 2015. He noted Westinghouse is also actively exploring opportunities there. Regarding physical funds, CFO Grant Isaac described the idea of that inventory coming to market as 'noise.' He stated that while some utilities hope it will save them from not contracting, the volumes are 'almost irrelevant' compared to the massive long-term structural supply deficit.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets asked for an update on the value capture framework for new AP1000 builds, whether the Westinghouse-KHNP settlement expands new build opportunities, and what major project milestones to watch. He also posed a hypothetical question about the impact of lifting Russian sanctions on the uranium market and how utility customers are factoring this long-term uncertainty into their decisions.

Answer

Executive VP and CFO Grant Isaac detailed the multi-stage value flow for AP1000 projects, from design to long-term servicing, highlighting significant opportunities in Poland, Bulgaria, and the U.S. He emphasized the Korean settlement turns competitors into collaborators, creating upside not priced into the acquisition. Regarding Russia, President and CEO Timothy Gitzel and Grant Isaac both assessed the likelihood of sanctions being lifted as very low, citing U.S. energy dominance goals and the difficulty of unwinding legislative prohibitions. They argued the consequence would also be low due to structural market deficits and the long-term nature of Cameco's replacement contracts.

Andrew Wong asked for Cameco's view on the US government's stance on data center power deals and the potential for McArthur/Key Lake to produce above 20 million pounds without major new CapEx.

Answer

Executive VP and CFO Grant Isaac framed the government's stance as a positive, requiring hyperscalers to co-invest in new nuclear capacity. President and CEO Timothy Gitzel confirmed they are evaluating debottlenecking McArthur/Key Lake, crediting prior investments for the strong performance. Grant Isaac added that any production increase would be tied to secured long-term contracts, not for the open market.

Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets asked about future cost trends as operational improvements stabilize and about the market impact from nitrogen tariffs versus the potential benefits of industrial onshoring.

Answer

CEO Mark Behrman and CFO Cheryl Maguire addressed costs, stating they expect an inflection point in 2025 with a target of $15-20 million in efficiency-driven cost reductions over the next few years. CCO Damian Renwick noted that tariff impacts are hard to discern from other market dynamics but that onshoring of industries like copper represents a long-term tailwind for demand.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets asked about the future trajectory of costs as operational improvements stabilize and about the impact of tariffs on nitrogen prices versus market tightness. He also inquired about the potential pricing and margin implications from the onshoring of industrial businesses.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Behrman stated that significant operational improvements are still in progress, targeting 95% ammonia plant reliability. EVP and CFO Cheryl Maguire added that the company is on track to achieve 25% of its $15-20 million cost reduction goal by year-end, with full annualized benefits in 2026. EVP and CCO Damien Renwick noted it is hard to discern tariff impacts from other market dynamics but said potential future Russian tariffs would be more meaningful, and that industrial onshoring is a long-term tailwind.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets asked for potential details on upgrade capacity projects, such as their scale, CapEx, and expected margin benefits. He also questioned what factors would need to change for the company to revisit the paused Houston Ship Channel project.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Behrman explained that it is too early to discuss project costs or returns for potential expansions at Pryor or El Dorado until engineering studies are completed. Regarding the Houston project, Behrman stated that while they believe in the long-term demand for low-carbon ammonia, the project was paused due to uncertainty in capital costs and the current unwillingness of buyers to pay a price that supports project returns. He noted they are open to revisiting it or participating in another project when the economics and timing are more favorable.

Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets sought more detail on the $600/ton price for the Houston project, the potential impact of EPA leadership changes on permit timelines, and the reasons for lagging ammonium nitrate (AN) prices.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Behrman clarified that current capital cost estimates for the Houston project do not support a profitable return at the sub-$600/ton price customers require, necessitating a project reconfiguration. He also expressed optimism that new EPA leadership could streamline the permit process for the El Dorado project. CCO Damien Renwick attributed weaker AN prices to shifts in U.S. supply-demand balance and competition from cheaper imports.

Andrew Wong asked for an early outlook on 2025 production volumes following recent operational upgrades and debottlenecking. He also posed a broader question about whether it makes sense for LSB to remain a public company, given recent M&A activity and valuations in the nitrogen sector.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Behrman explained that while it's too early for a specific 2025 volume outlook, he expects higher UAN volumes year-over-year due to debottlenecking, despite two planned turnarounds. On the company's public status, Mr. Behrman acknowledged the value of their NOLs and access to public capital, stating they are focused on executing their growth strategy but remain disciplined regarding potential M&A.

Andrew Wong asked for management's view on vanadium production margins at current price levels and questioned the reasons behind the significant increase in working capital usage during the year.

Answer

CCO Paul Vollant stated that at current low prices, primary vanadium producers are loss-making, and production cutbacks are beginning to emerge in Asia. CEO Daniel Tellechea explained that the increase in working capital was due to initial production variability and the subsequent ramp-up, noting the company is focused on cost reduction and better aligning sales with production.

Andrew Wong of RBC Capital Markets asked about the factors contributing to Largo's strong realized vanadium prices relative to market benchmarks in Q1 and the outlook for the rest of the year. He also inquired about future ore grade expectations and whether the second-half cost outlook is a reliable indicator for 2025.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Paul Vollant attributed the price outperformance to high-purity sales premiums and contract structures that trail the index in a declining market. Interim CEO Daniel Tellechea explained that lower ore grades are due to pegmatite in the orebody and are expected to persist in the near term before improving next year. CFO Ernest Cleave projected second-half 2024 cash costs at $4.50-$5.50/lb, with an ambition to get below $4.00/lb in 2025.

Inquired about the relationship between current low vanadium prices and marginal production costs, the company's production strategy, the price outlook, and details about the proposed joint venture with Stryten Energy for the clean energy division.

Answer

Executives stated that at current prices ($5.90/lb), they are not cash positive against their cost guidance of $4.50-$5.50/lb. They believe prices are unsustainably low for primary producers but gave no specific outlook. The joint venture with Stryten combines Largo's technology and vanadium access with Stryten's large-scale U.S. manufacturing capabilities to commercialize VRFB technology in North America.