Anita Soni is a Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets, specializing in the coverage of the precious and base metals sectors with a focus on companies like Newmont, Kinross Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines, Centerra Gold, and IAMGold. She has built a strong performance track record, with recent TipRanks metrics indicating a 57.9% success rate and an average annual return of 12.9%, and an AnaChart price target met ratio over 83%. Beginning her finance career as an Associate at Merrill Lynch Canada, she joined CIBC in 2018 and quickly rose to her current senior position. Soni holds relevant professional credentials and is recognized for the accuracy and timeliness of her stock recommendations in the basic materials space.
Anita Soni inquired about where inorganic opportunities (M&A pipeline) would fit into Kinross Gold's capital allocation strategy.
Paul Rollinson, CEO, reiterated that given the strength of the organic portfolio, Kinross is not under pressure for M&A. He stated they are very careful, having done only three external deals in the last 10 years, but would pursue opportunities like another Great Bear if it arose.
Anita Soni asked about Kinross Gold's capital allocation strategy for the upcoming year, including a potential formula for distributing free cash flow between shareholder returns and reinvestment, and where inorganic opportunities (M&A) fit into this strategy.
Paul Rollinson (CEO, Kinross Gold) explained that while in the budget cycle, there's no specific formula, but the company prioritizes buybacks and expects to manage higher taxes, royalties, inflation, and reinvestment opportunities in projects like Phase X and Curlew, believing they can achieve 'all of the above.' Regarding M&A, he reiterated that Kinross is not under pressure due to its strong organic portfolio, is very careful with external opportunities, and would pursue another 'Great Bear' if the right opportunity arose.
Anita Soni requested an update on the Lobo Marte project in Chile, asking for color on its development and how it fits into the company's long-term production profile.
SVP of Technical Services, William Dunford, described Lobo Marte as a high-margin, low-strip heap leach project with a grade of 1.3 g/t. He positioned it as a strong contributor for the 2030s and noted the current focus is on advancing technical work to support the permitting process.
Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets inquired about the duration of the Tasiast mill restart, the grade profile for Paracatu, the results timeline for the La Coipa extension, and the permitting status and potential for acceleration at the Great Bear project.
Claude J. Schimper, SVP and Chief Operating Officer, confirmed the Tasiast shutdown was about three weeks and that Paracatu's grade should remain stable. William Dunford, EVP and Chief Technical Officer, noted that more details on La Coipa would come early next year. Geoffrey P. Gold, EVP and Chief Legal Officer, detailed the provincial and federal permitting processes for Great Bear, acknowledging potential streamlining from new legislation but stating it's too early to confirm impacts on the timeline.
Anita Soni inquired about the incremental capital needed for Phase 2 of the Red Bird project, the timing of the planned share buybacks, and the permitting status for the Great Bear project. She also asked for clarification on tonnage variability from the Manh Choh mine.
EVP and CTO William Dunford stated that the CapEx for Red Bird Phase 2 is still being determined, with the plan for Phase 1 cash flow to fund most of it. CEO J. Rollinson confirmed the share buyback is planned for later in the year, after the seasonal Q1 cash outflow, if gold prices remain strong. EVP Geoffrey P. Gold noted that they expect no delays on Great Bear permits. EVP and COO Claude J. Schimper explained Manh Choh ore is processed in batches averaging 200,000 to 220,000 tonnes, with some seasonal variability.
Anita Soni inquired about the grade profile at Paracatu for the remainder of the year, the capital allocation strategy post-debt repayment, and the projects intended to bridge the production gap before Great Bear.
EVP and COO Claude J. Schimper explained Paracatu's grade will increase towards year-end as mining transitions to a higher-grade part of the pit. CFO Andrea Freeborough noted the term loan will likely be paid off by mid-2025, after which capital allocation will be reassessed. CEO J. Rollinson identified Phase X, Curlew, and an extended La Coipa mine life as key projects to sustain production before Great Bear.
Anita Soni inquired about the expected resource update for Hope Bay by year-end and the targets for its 2027 study. She also asked about inflation expectations for 2026, specifically if the typical 3-5% range applies, and how the company plans to manage costs given recent gold price movements.
Dominique Girard (COO) stated that a PEA study for Hope Bay, with over 40% engineering complete, is expected in the first half of next year, providing details on schedule and cost. Guy Gosselin (EVP of Exploration) added that year-end reserves would remain similar to last year, with updates to indicated and inferred resources, and a new PFS-supported reserve and resource filing is targeted by the end of 2026. Jamie Porter (CFO) noted that while labor inflation has been 3-5%, overall cost inflation has averaged 6-7% over the past three years, and similar levels are expected for 2026, with higher royalty costs due to gold prices. He affirmed ongoing efforts to outperform inflation.
Anita Soni asked about the expected resource update for Hope Bay by year-end and the targets for the 2027 study. She also sought insight into Agnico Eagle's inflation expectations for 2026, specifically whether it aligns with the typical 3-5% range or higher, and how operational optimizations are mitigating these cost pressures.
Dominique Girard (COO) stated that a PEA study for Hope Bay is expected in the first half of next year with over 40% engineering completion. Guy Gosselin (EVP of Exploration) added that year-end reserves would remain stable, with updates to indicated and inferred resources, and a PFS-supported reserve/resource filing targeted by end of 2026. Jamie Porter (CFO) indicated that while labor inflation is 3-5%, overall cost inflation has been 6-7% over the past three years, with similar expectations for 2026, compounded by higher royalty costs due to gold prices, though optimization efforts continue.
Anita Soni from CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the East Gouldie project, asking for the estimated cost to deepen the shaft and add a loading station. She also sought details on the capital allocation framework, specifically how the company plans to use free cash flow not allocated to shareholder returns and if project investments would be accelerated.
EVP & COO Dominique Girard estimated the cost to deepen shaft #1 and add a third loading station at approximately $40 million, noting it is a payback project that improves efficiency. EVP & CFO Jamie Porter confirmed the company will strengthen the balance sheet and look for opportunities to accelerate high-return projects. President and CEO Ammar Al-Joundi stressed that any acceleration is driven by project quality and strong execution, not simply by the availability of cash.
Anita Soni from CIBC World Markets questioned the company's cost performance, noting Q1 costs were below guidance, and asked for the expected cost trajectory for the year. She also sought an update on the progress toward delineating the 2 million ounces required for the Odyssey second shaft.
An executive, Jamie, attributed the strong Q1 cost performance to favorable foreign exchange rates and higher production, but stated the company is maintaining its full-year guidance. CEO Ammar Al-Joundi added that strong operations drive low costs. An executive, likely Guy Gosselin, noted they are about a year of drilling away from firming up the 2 million ounce case for the second shaft.
Anita Soni of CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the development timeline for the Hope Bay project, asking when it is expected to commence production and whether it would be operational by the end of the current decade or in the early 2030s.
Dominique Girard, SVP of Quebec, Nunavut & Finland, responded that the immediate focus is on finalizing the project's scope, including the new Patch 7 resources, with a target of 40% engineering completion by the end of 2025. He clarified that more detailed project information will be released in the first half of 2026 and confirmed that the start-up is anticipated for the early part of the next decade.
Anita Soni inquired about the next steps and decision timeline for the Hope Bay project, asked about any planned operational shutdowns for the second half of the year, and questioned if the strong throughput and grade at Canadian Malartic would continue.
Guy Gosselin (executive) stated that Hope Bay requires more drilling at Patch 7 to upgrade resources, with a clearer outlook expected in about a year. Dominique Girard (executive) and Natasha Nella Vaz (executive) detailed upcoming maintenance shutdowns at Canadian Malartic and Detour. Dominique Girard also clarified that while Canadian Malartic's tonnage will remain strong, grade is expected to decrease in the second half as mining moves into lower-grade zones.
Anita Soni asked about Yanacocha's strong Q3 performance and whether it is expected to continue into Q4, given its planned closure in the fourth quarter. She also inquired about the 2026 production guidance, specifically if Cadia's grades are expected to decline or if there could be a positive surprise. Additionally, she asked if the Q4 Cost Applicable to Sales (CAS) of $1,260 could serve as a reasonable run rate for 2026, considering current gold prices and efficiencies, and about the expected production from Ahafo North and its impact on Ahafo South.
Natascha Viljoen, President and COO of Newmont Corporation, indicated that Yanacocha's Q4 production would be slightly lower than Q3 as mining at Ketchum Mine Pit concludes, with a focus shifting to injection leaching. For Cadia, she stated that models predict a decrease in grades for next year as BC1 and BC2 come to an end, which is incorporated into planning. Ms. Viljoen clarified that Q4 CAS is cyclical and not a reliable run rate for 2026, as next year's CAS will be impacted by normal inflation, taxes, royalties, and worker participation, with guidance still a work in progress. For Ahafo North and South, she suggested assuming a similar combined run rate between the two operations for next year.
Anita Soni asked about Yanacocha's strong Q3 performance and whether it is expected to continue into Q4. She also inquired about the 2026 production guidance, specifically if Cadia's grades are expected to decline or if there's potential for upside. Additionally, she asked if the Q4 Cost Applicable to Sales (CAS) of $1,260 could serve as a reasonable run rate for 2026, considering operational efficiencies and higher gold prices. Finally, she questioned if Ahafo North's projected 300,000 ounces for next year would be offset by a similar decline at Ahafo South.
Natascha Viljoen, President and COO, indicated that Yanacocha's Q4 production is expected to be slightly lower than Q3 as mining concludes at the Ketchum Mine Pit, with a full focus on injection leaching. For Cadia, she stated that planning incorporates models predicting a decrease in grades for 2026, despite potential upside. Ms. Viljoen clarified that Q4 CAS is cyclical and not a reliable run rate for 2026, as next year's CAS will be impacted by inflation, taxes, royalties, and worker participation, with cost savings aiming to offset these. For Ahafo North and South, she suggested assuming a similar combined run rate between the two operations for next year.
Anita Soni of CIBC Capital Markets requested more details on the fall of ground incident at Red Chris and asked for the rationale behind deliberately shifting capital spending to the second half of the year.
President and CEO Tom Palmer detailed the sequence of events at Red Chris, confirming the incident occurred in the decline. President and COO Natascha Viljoen explained the capital shift was a deliberate decision to ensure spending effectiveness, aligning work at Lihir and Tanami with specific integrity and productivity projects, and timing Canadian work for summer months.
Anita Soni inquired about geopolitical risks in Newmont's operating regions, such as changes in government stances on royalties and taxes. She also asked if the company might look to improve its portfolio exposure through investments in smaller projects or JVs, given its growing cash balance.
Executive Tom Palmer responded that Newmont's portfolio is deliberately shaped to be in jurisdictions with respect for the rule of law and stable investment agreements, and he sees no particular new risks. He reiterated that after a significant transformation, the company's focus is firmly on stability and delivering on the commitments of its current portfolio, not on further M&A or significant new investments at this time.
Anita Soni from CIBC asked about the status and timeline for approvals needed to reach the 35 million tonnes per annum throughput target at Cadia. She also questioned if the original 3.5 million tonnes per annum target for Cerro Negro is still valid and when it might be achieved.
Executive Natascha Viljoen clarified that for Cadia, the focus is on balancing tailings dam permitting and expansion with cave development for capital efficiency. Regarding Cerro Negro, she stated that the primary focus is on improving operational productivity to reach required levels, as all necessary mining areas and equipment are available.
Anita Soni of CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the cost increases at the Cote Gold project, specifically asking for the strip ratio for the second half of the year, the evolution of processing costs amid upcoming shutdowns, and the updated timeline for the integrated Gosselin study.
CEO Renaud Adams and CFO Maarten Theunissen explained that the strip ratio will be around 2.5 in H2 2025, with temporary rehandling costs expected to decline after the installation of a new cone crusher. They noted that while processing costs are temporarily elevated due to external support during the ramp-up, they are confident in reaching long-term targets. The Gosselin study timeline was extended to H2 2026 to incorporate a full drilling program and resource update.
Anita Soni from CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the mining rates and grade profile at the Cote Gold mine, specifically asking about stockpile levels and how long the lower 0.78 g/t grade would persist. She also questioned the grade reconciliation outlook at Essakane and the reasons for its improved unit processing costs in Q1.
COO Bruno Lemelin and CEO Renaud Adams explained that the lower grade at Cote was planned as the pit is expanded, with grades expected to increase towards 1.0 g/t in coming quarters. Lemelin provided details on stockpile tonnages and grades. For Essakane, they confirmed a stronger H2 is expected with positive grade reconciliation. CFO Marthinus Theunissen attributed the lower processing costs at Essakane to higher throughput which better absorbed fixed costs.
Anita Soni inquired about the operational challenges at the Côté Gold mine in January, asking if the recent guidance already accounted for issues with the HPGR and other crushers, and how mining rates are expected to progress through 2025.
President and CEO Renaud Adams confirmed that the 2025 guidance was issued with full knowledge of the required repairs and maintenance, including the conveyor belt and HPGR rolls. He expressed confidence in the annual guidance, noting that Q1 would be lower but production would ramp up through the year. He added that the company is pleased with mining progress and is on track to achieve its target of 48 million tonnes for the year.
Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets inquired about the primary factors driving the Cote Gold project's production guidance toward the lower end of its range, the expected duration of the planned September shutdown, and the current processing costs. She also asked about the impact of lower power usage on costs, progress on the tailings dam, and the current levels and grades of ore stockpiles.
President and CEO Renaud Adams explained that the guidance adjustment is due to a deliberate strategy of taking necessary downtime for corrections during the ramp-up, which may extend the September shutdown to 10-15 days to ensure long-term stability. CFO Marthinus Theunissen confirmed that processing costs are within expectations and will align with the 43-101 technical report as throughput increases. COO Bruno Lemelin provided stockpile details, stating there are 8 million tonnes at 0.75 g/t, including a high-grade portion at 1.6 g/t.
Anita Soni of CIBC Capital Markets asked about the expected magnitude of grade decline at Caraíba in H2, the target throughput exit rate for Tucumã, the nameplate capacity and 2026 ramp-up at Xavantina, and the cause of lower Q2 recoveries there.
President and CEO Makko Defilippo stated Caraíba's full-year grade will be 1.1-1.2% due to more Surubim ore. Tucumã's exit rate is targeted above 80% capacity. Xavantina's mill capacity is ~300,000 tpa, with 2026 plans still in development. The lower Q2 recovery was a temporary issue caused by variable carbonaceous material in the ore.
Anita Soni from CIBC Capital Markets asked about the expected magnitude of the grade decline at Cariba in H2 2025, the target throughput exit rate at Tucuma, the nameplate capacity of the Javancina mill, its ramp-up outlook for 2026, and the reason for lower recovery rates at Javancina in Q2.
President and CEO Makko Defilippo explained the Cariba grade decline is due to an increased mix of lower-grade ore from the Serbeam pit, with the full-year grade expected between 1.1% and 1.2%. He projected Tucuma's exit rate to be above 80% of capacity. For Javancina, he stated the mill's capacity is around 300,000 tonnes per year and that the lower Q2 recovery was a temporary issue related to carbonaceous material in the ore.
Anita Soni asked about the expected magnitude of grade decline at Caraíba in H2, the target throughput exit rate for Tucumã, the nameplate capacity and 2026 ramp-up plan for the Xavantina mill, and the reason for lower recoveries at Xavantina in Q2.
President & CEO Makko Defilippo stated Caraíba's full-year grade will be 1.1-1.2% due to more Surubim ore. Tucumã's exit rate is targeted above 80% capacity. Xavantina's capacity is ~300k tpa, with H2 implying a 50-60k oz annualized rate. The Q2 recovery dip was temporary, caused by carbonaceous material in the ore.
Anita Soni of CIBC Capital Markets asked if the recent wildfire situation was a primary contributor to the cautionary language around production guidance for McArthur River and Cigar Lake.
President & CEO Tim Gitzel clarified that wildfires are not the principal cause of the production caution. He stated the main factors are operational challenges like breaking into new mining areas, ensuring ground freezing is complete, and commissioning new equipment. He described the fire impact as 'peripheral' and not affecting long-term plans.
Anita Soni asked about the key parameters for the upcoming Gramalote feasibility study, particularly the gold price assumption, and questioned the potential production start timeline for the project.
Executive Clive Johnson stated the study aligns with the previous PEA, targeting 220,000 oz/year. Executive Michael Cinnamond added that the study will use a long-term consensus gold price of around $2,300-$2,400/oz. Executive William Lytle confirmed that a production start around 2028-2029 is a reasonable expectation, factoring in a 12-15 month period for permit modifications.
Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets sought specifics on the Goose Project's three-month delay, asking about the primary pinch point, the mining truck fleet size, potential standby costs, and other key operational risks management is monitoring.
Global Operations SVP William Lytle explained the delay stems from falling behind schedule in mining both the Echo and Umwelt pits, caused by delays in commissioning the mining fleet. He stated they are actively managing staffing and consumption to flatten the cost curve and avoid significant standby costs. The next major critical path item is the construction of fuel tanks at the marine landing area.
Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets asked for a detailed outlook on Greenstone's grade and tonnage evolution, questioning when higher-grade ore would be accessed and how the mine would keep pace with the plant. She also requested the current direct-mined ore feed grade and the number of haul trucks in operation. Finally, she asked for a strategic overview of which assets are considered core versus non-core following the Calibre Mining merger.
CEO Gregory Smith and COO Douglas Reddy explained that Greenstone's grade is ramping up as expected, but mining tonnage is behind schedule due to equipment availability issues in Q1. They confirmed the fleet was expanded from 25 to 29 trucks and a new shovel is arriving in July to help catch up. Regarding the portfolio, Gregory Smith identified Greenstone, Valentine, and Castle Mountain as the foundational core assets, noting that a full review of the combined portfolio to identify potential non-core divestments will occur after the transaction closes.
Anita Soni inquired about the 2025 guidance for Greenstone's grade, tons, and recoveries. She also asked for clarification on the discrepancy between all-in sustaining cost (AISC) and cash cost guidance, the accounting for stockpiled ore at Greenstone, and the potential standby costs for the Los Filos mine.
COO Douglas Reddy stated that Greenstone's grade is planned to ramp up from approximately 1.0 g/t in Q1 to 1.6-1.7 g/t by year-end. CFO Peter Hardie explained that stripping costs are expected to be included in operating expenses for 2025 due to the strip ratio. Regarding Los Filos, Mr. Hardie estimated potential standby costs would be lower than the $3-4 million per month incurred during previous blockades. The question on the cost guidance discrepancy was taken offline.
Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets inquired about the trend in unit costs at the Greenstone mine, future recovery rate expectations at Santa Luz, and the mining timeline for the Piaba pit at Aurizona.
COO Douglas Reddy and CEO Gregory Smith addressed the questions. For Greenstone, Smith noted that mining costs are on plan and suggested an offline discussion for detailed unit costs. For Santa Luz, Reddy explained that recovery averages 68% without the desliming circuit, which they are still working to optimize. Smith added that recovery is volatile but has recently stabilized, with more concrete guidance expected for 2025. For Aurizona, Reddy confirmed that mining at the Piaba pit began in Q4, as previously scheduled.
Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets inquired about the Greenstone mine's operational ramp-up, including throughput rates, the sustainability of high initial grades, mining fleet productivity, and waste hauling requirements for the tailings facility.
COO Douglas Reddy provided details on the phased throughput ramp-up and explained the high initial grade was a deliberate commissioning strategy that will not be sustained. CEO Gregory Smith added context on mining complexities from historical soil and tailings removal, which currently impacts fleet efficiency. Reddy later specified that 7.8 million tonnes of rockfill are planned for the TMF in 2024.
Anita Soni asked about the financial parameters for the Kemess project, inquiring if there is a royalty on the asset, whether key infrastructure was previously sold, and for a ballpark estimate of the refurbishment costs.
CFO Ryan Snyder confirmed there is a silver stream with Triple Flag on Kemess but no royalties on gold or copper. President and CEO Paul Tomory stated that no significant infrastructure has been sold from the site, and key assets like the process plant, camp, and power line remain, though they require refurbishment. While declining to provide a specific CapEx figure ahead of the PEA, Tomory noted the cost would be a fraction of a comparable greenfield project, with primary expenses related to pit development, new crushing/conveyance systems, and mill refurbishment.
Anita Soni asked for more detail on the drivers behind the grade increase in the Mount Milligan reserve and resource update and questioned its impact on the near-term production profile. She also inquired about the specific geostatistical model being used.
COO Paul Chawrun explained that the grade increase resulted from remodeling and tightening the mineralization domains based on 2023 drilling, which concentrates the grade into fewer tonnes. He acknowledged this contributed to a production variance, as mining in some areas yielded more tonnes at a lower grade than the new model predicted, an issue the team is actively working to reconcile. He confirmed the use of an ordinary kriging model.
Anita Soni inquired about the pit sequencing and waste stripping at the Oksut mine, questioning if stripping was deferred. She also asked about capital allocation priorities given the strong free cash flow outlook and current commodity prices.
Paul Chawrun, Chief Operating Officer, clarified that waste stripping at Oksut is on track, but ore sequencing was adjusted to blend different grades, which was impacted by the rainy season. Paul Tomory, President and CEO, outlined capital priorities, emphasizing the Thompson Creek/Langeloth molybdenum project, disciplined M&A, strategic investments in junior explorers, and continued drilling at key assets.
Anita Soni from CIBC World Markets sought details on the dilution and ore loss issues at Pampacancha, asking whether the cause was geostatistical or operational, what modeling techniques were used, and what factors were applied to the 2025 forecast.
COO Andre Lauzon clarified that the issue appears to be geostatistical, as it primarily affected copper variability while gold reconciliation was positive. He confirmed the models, which use ordinary kriging, were updated with more comprehensive information rather than a simple cutting factor, giving the company high confidence in the revised 2025 forecast. He also confirmed Pampacancha mining concludes in 2025.
Asked multiple detailed questions covering operational ramp-ups and targets at Pueblo Viejo, Carlin, Cortez, and Turquoise Ridge; specifics of the Fourmile project's potential vend-in to the NGM JV and its resource definition; and the company's philosophy on setting its reserve gold price.
Pueblo Viejo's recovery will ramp to the mid-80s over the next couple of years, with the ultimate 90%+ target being a longer-term, graduated process. Cortez stripping will ease, while Carlin is managing a pit wall failure. Turquoise Ridge performance will improve through year-end as backfill infrastructure work is completed. The Fourmile vend-in hurdle applies to the project itself. The reserve gold price is under review but will remain disciplined to protect asset quality and value.
Asked a series of detailed operational questions regarding grade profiles at Lumwana, PV, and Carlin; the timeline for fixing the backfill issue at Turquoise Ridge; and any upcoming major mill shutdowns.
The executive explained that lower grades at Lumwana are due to mine sequencing, with higher grades expected later in the year. He provided full-year grade guidance for PV and Carlin, noting second-half improvements. The Turquoise Ridge backfill issue should be resolved by Q3, and a major shutdown is planned for the Gold Quarry roaster in July to tie in an expansion.
Anita Soni asked for clarification on the capital expenditure at New Afton, which appeared to be tracking below guidance, and questioned whether the outperformance on unit costs at both mines was a one-time event or sustainable.
President and CEO Patrick Godin attributed the lower CapEx at New Afton to a combination of successful cost optimization in development planning and minor equipment delivery delays that do not impact the operational timeline. He confirmed the unit cost improvements are sustainable, citing enhanced productivity and operational efficiencies at Rainy River, such as in-pit dumping, and the upcoming commissioning of the cost-saving crusher and conveyor system at New Afton.
Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets questioned the lighter ore tonnage at Rainy River, asked if the inventory adjustment would be a recurring event, and inquired if New Afton's strong performance could lead to beating guidance.
COO Yohann Bouchard explained that Rainy River's Q1 performance was as planned, with Q2 ore extraction expected to be better, positioning them for the guided 40/60 H1/H2 production split. CFO Keith Murphy clarified the inventory adjustment was a one-time Q1 event not expected to recur significantly. Yohann Bouchard also noted that while New Afton may see fluctuations, they expect stable production and can manage grade and throughput to meet targets.
Performance on expert-authored financial analysis tasks