Annelies Vermeulen

Annelies Vermeulen of Morgan Stanley questioned the drivers of strong June lead flow, seeking details on a new predictive churn model and the future scale of the door-to-door sales pilot.

Answer

CEO Andy Ransom acknowledged favorable weather likely contributed to lead flow but expressed confidence that internal execution improvements were a key driver, citing continued positive trends. He described the predictive churn model as an AI tool showing high accuracy in back-testing. He also confirmed the door-to-door pilot will see a material scale-up next year, which CFO Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson noted would be funded within the existing marketing budget.

Annelies Vermeulen asked about the outlook for the softer US retail business and other cyclical end markets. She also questioned if cleaning and hygiene volumes would fully recover to pre-pandemic levels given hybrid work trends, and why European wage inflation is not expected to reach North American levels.

Answer

CEO Frank van Zanten noted that Bunzl is managing risk in the retail sector, which is not expected to be a high-growth area, and that cleaning and hygiene volumes are improving but office traffic remains below 2019 levels. CFO Richard Howes explained that while European wage inflation is rising, it's not expected to hit the highs seen in North America, which were exacerbated by a uniquely tight warehouse labor market.

Annelies Vermeulen from Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc requested quantification of wage inflation in H2 2021 and 2022 expectations, data on employee retention trends, and commentary on whether cost inflation is driving more contract tenders and outsourcing opportunities.

Answer

CFO Richard Howes detailed that North American wage inflation was 5% for the full year but accelerated to 7-8% in H2 for key roles, with 2022 guidance assuming an annualization of that rate. He reported a voluntary turnover rate of 17.3%. CEO Frank Andre van Zanten added that inflation is indeed creating more tender and outsourcing opportunities, particularly as customers struggle with warehouse labor and focus on sustainability.

Annelies Vermeulen of Morgan Stanley inquired about the pricing and margin trends for COVID-related products and how this factored into the higher H2 margin outlook. She also asked if the upcoming U.S. election and potential tax changes were accelerating M&A interest.

Answer

CEO & Executive Director Frank van Zanten confirmed that while pricing for COVID items is lower than in Q2, it remains at good levels. He attributed the higher H2 margin guidance to a favorable product mix, as these are higher-margin own-brand imported products. CFO & Director Richard Howes added that while M&A activity is good, they could not directly link it to potential U.S. capital gains tax changes.