Anthony Crowdell

Anthony Crowdell asked if the impressive growth in Kentucky and Pennsylvania, driven by data centers, raises concerns about an unhealthy revenue concentration that could potentially offset PPL's solid regulatory balance. He also followed up on the PJM load forecast haircut, asking if PPL was suggesting its region is a candidate for breaking out in the next auction, or merely highlighting a broader resource adequacy issue.

Answer

President and CEO Vince Sorgi stated he was not concerned about overconcentration risk due to robust protections built into tariff structures and ESAs for large loads, such as minimum load requirements and credit support, which prevent costs from being shifted to existing customers. He also noted that hyperscalers are likely to need more power, not less, due to technological advancements. Regarding the PJM load forecast, Mr. Sorgi clarified that he was not suggesting the PL zone would break out, but rather explaining that PPL's load forecasts to PJM are consistent with the 20.5 GW projects, with timing differences in updates, and PJM applies its own haircut.

Anthony Crowdell raised concerns about potential unhealthy revenue concentration from data centers offsetting PPL's regulatory balance, given the increasing load from this single sector. He also asked if PPL was implying its region might be a candidate for breaking out in the next PJM auction due to higher load growth.

Answer

President and CEO Vince Sorgi expressed no significant concern about overconcentration risk, citing robust protections built into tariff structures and Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) for large loads, which prevent costs from being defrayed to existing customers. He also noted that hyperscalers are likely to need more power, not less, due to technological advancements. Mr. Sorgi clarified that he was not suggesting the PPL zone would necessarily break out in the PJM auction, but rather explaining the process of submitting load forecasts to PJM and their subsequent haircutting.

Anthony Crowdell asked for clarification on the 11 GW of data center requests in advanced stages, specifically what portion is covered by signed Energy Services Agreements (ESAs). He also inquired about the Kentucky CPCN filing, asking about the cost of the CCGTs and whether the new generation is intended for existing load replacement or prospective load growth.

Answer

CEO Vincent Sorgi stated that while the specific terms are confidential, a 'multiple gigawatts' portion of the advanced-stage projects is now under signed ESAs. Regarding the Kentucky generation, he noted the cost estimates are around $2,000 per kW and are included in the CPCN filing. He explained the new generation is needed to both replace retiring coal units (Mill Creek 1 & 2) and to serve significant new load requirements from data centers and other economic development.

Anthony Crowdell asked for an update on the Revolution Wind project, specifically about the critical remaining parts, the expected completion timeline, and when the first megawatt of power is anticipated. He also inquired about the timing and resolution of the storm cost securitization in Connecticut, considering recent changes at PURA.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Joe Nolan reported that 52 of 65 turbines are installed for Revolution Wind, the onshore substation is nearing completion, and power is expected there soon. While Ørsted targets H2 2026, Eversource hopes for an improved schedule. Mr. Nolan deferred questions about first power to Ørsted. Regarding storm cost securitization, Mr. Nolan stated that focus is shifting to this after the Yankee case and Aquarion sale, with a Q2/Q3 decision expected, hoping for acceleration with the new PURA commission to mitigate interest costs.

Anthony Crowdell asked about the remaining critical parts for the Revolution Wind project's completion, given Ørsted's 85% completion report, and if the project is still expected to finish in the second half of 2026. He also asked about the expected timing for the first megawatt of power and for an update on the timing of resolution for storm cost securitization in Connecticut.

Answer

CEO Joe Nolan stated that 52 of 65 turbines are installed for Revolution Wind, with onshore work in Rhode Island nearing completion and power expected at the substation soon. While Ørsted targets H2 2026, Eversource has improved dates by 4-5 months and hopes for further improvement. He deferred questions about the first megawatt of power to Ørsted, as Eversource is the onshore partner. Regarding Connecticut storm costs, Mr. Nolan noted that the focus is now shifting to this after the Yankee case and Aquarion sale, with a Q2/Q3 decision currently expected, but hopes for an improved timeline with the new PURA commission.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho Financial Group asked for a breakdown of the rate base in New Hampshire between state and FERC regulation and inquired if the equity layer for FERC assets is based on an actual or hypothetical structure.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer John Moreira clarified that the FERC equity layer is based on the actual equity ratio for all of New England. He estimated the state-regulated rate base for PSNH is approximately $2.1 billion, with the FERC-regulated portion being around $1.7 to $1.8 billion, subject to confirmation.

Anthony Crowdell requested a breakdown of the rate base in New Hampshire between state and FERC regulation and asked about the equity layer determination for FERC-regulated assets.

Answer

John Moreira, Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer, clarified that the FERC-regulated assets use an actual equity ratio based on the New England-wide structure. He estimated the state-regulated distribution rate base at approximately $2.1 billion and the FERC-regulated transmission rate base at around $1.7 to $1.8 billion, subject to confirmation.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho asked for clarification on Connecticut's storm cost securitization legislation, the impact of a recent Massachusetts gas ruling, and the completion percentage of the Revolution Wind project.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Joseph Nolan confirmed that Connecticut bill SB-1560 contemplates storm cost securitization. EVP and CFO John Moreira noted the Massachusetts GSEP ruling, which lowered a cap to 2.5%, is manageable and not a major impact. Regarding Revolution Wind, an executive stated that while construction is progressing very well, a specific completion percentage has not been quantified.

Anthony Crowdell asked if the 4.5 GW of additional power equipment is incremental to the 7 combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) listed on slide 14 of the presentation. He also inquired about the availability of EPCs and craft labor for building these large generation projects, given potential industry-wide struggles.

Answer

Drew Marsh, Chair and CEO, confirmed that the 4.5 GW of additional power equipment is indeed incremental to the 7 CCGTs shown on slide 14, with other units also contributing to the overall 19 GW capacity. Regarding labor, Drew Marsh, Chair and CEO, acknowledged significant challenges in securing skilled craft labor, leading to increasing costs for combined cycle projects, which Entergy is actively managing with EPCs.

Anthony Crowdell followed up on the new nuclear topic, asking which of the potential risk-sharing partners—such as state or federal governments, hyperscalers, or sovereign wealth funds—is considered the most likely or leading candidate.

Answer

Chair and CEO Drew Marsh responded that he could not identify a frontrunner among the potential partners. He emphasized that Entergy is actively pursuing all options to find an entity with a balance sheet large enough to de-risk a new nuclear build but conceded that they 'haven't cracked the nut yet' and no single path has emerged as the most probable.

Anthony Crowdell asked about the impact on the FFO to debt metric if tax credit transferability were to sunset and how rating agencies treat tax equity financing in FFO calculations.

Answer

CFO Kimberly Fontan stated that even in a bookend case where all renewable tax credits were lost, the company's credit metrics would still remain above rating agency thresholds. She also noted that Entergy would use other mechanisms like safe harboring or tax equity partnerships to mitigate the impact. She confirmed that tax equity financing is treated in the normal course by rating agencies and would not expect that to change.

Anthony Crowdell sought clarification on whether the $0.10 preferred equity charge was previously contemplated in the 2026 and 2027 forecasts, or if pulling it forward to 2025 represents a new impact on guidance.

Answer

Maria Rigatti (EVP and CFO, Edison International) explained that the $0.10 charge for deferred financing costs is tied to new options for early refinancing, which became available due to the TKM and pending Woolsey settlements. She noted that while refinancing costs would occur in the year of the event, the decision to pursue early refinancing in 2025 is a result of increased certainty and flexibility from recent regulatory successes.

Anthony Crowdell sought clarification on the $0.10 charge for preferred equity refinancing, asking if it was already contemplated in the 2026-2028 forecasts if the maturities were met, or if it's a new charge due to pulling the refinancing forward, impacting 2025 without a corresponding increase in future years' guidance.

Answer

EVP and CFO Maria Rigatti explained that the company was always evaluating options. The recent TKM settlement and pending Woolsey settlement, along with subsequent securitizations, provided more flexibility, leading to additional options that might involve writing off deferred financing costs. She noted that if the preferreds were simply continued, no write-off would occur, but the current charge is tied to the success of regulatory proceedings and the ability to pursue these new options.

Anthony Crowdell asked if the legislative solution for wildfires will remain anchored to AB 1054's shared-risk model and whether the Eaton fire could access a potentially expanded fund.

Answer

President and CEO Pedro Pizarro confirmed the legislative direction appears to be an extension of AB 1054's risk-sharing framework, and the company will assess the final package. He conveyed the general understanding that the Eaton fire would draw from the current fund, while any expanded fund would cover future events. EVP & CFO Maria Riccardi reinforced that the current fund has a robust $22 billion in claims-paying capacity.

Anthony Crowdell asked if the developing legislative solution for wildfires will remain anchored to AB 1054's shared-risk model between customers and investors. He also questioned whether the Eaton fire would be eligible to access a potentially expanded wildfire fund or only the current one.

Answer

President and CEO Pedro Pizarro acknowledged that the legislative direction appears to be an extension of the AB 1054 risk-sharing model, but stressed that the company's final stance depends on the complete package. Executive VP & CFO Maria Riccardi added that shoring up AB 1054 is a critical first step. Regarding the Eaton fire, Mr. Pizarro conveyed the general understanding in Sacramento is that the current fund covers current fires, while an expanded fund would cover future ones, pending final legislation. Ms. Riccardi reiterated the current fund's robust financial health.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho Financial Group inquired if any specific solutions for modifying the AB 1054 wildfire legislation, such as a replenishment mechanism, are resonating with policymakers in Sacramento.

Answer

President and CEO Pedro Pizarro explained that it is still early in the process and premature to discuss specific solutions. He noted that many legislators are new since the original framework was passed. The company's current focus is on educating policymakers about the issue's complexity and the implications for community safety and customer costs, including the impact of credit ratings on debt.

Anthony Crowdell asked whether the CPUC's prudency determination is binary or if a middle ground exists between 100% prudent and 100% imprudent.

Answer

CEO Pedro Pizarro confirmed that the CPUC absolutely has the discretion to find a utility's actions fully prudent, fully imprudent, or something in between. He noted that this is a key aspect of the regulatory framework and that life is not binary, referencing a past case where the commission later acknowledged it was not stuck with an all-or-nothing choice.

Anthony Crowdell questioned if the 2025 financial update would incorporate outcomes for both the TKM and Woolsey wildfire proceedings, and asked for assurances that mid-cycle changes to the cost of capital mechanism would not recur without a trigger event.

Answer

EVP and CFO Maria Rigatti confirmed the 2025 update would likely incorporate the TKM settlement but not Woolsey, as it's too early in its process. President and CEO Pedro Pizarro addressed the cost of capital change, acknowledging disappointment but framing it within a broader, constructive regulatory environment, pointing to numerous positive outcomes like the TKM settlement and AB 1054 implementation.

Anthony Crowdell sought clarification on the relationship between the increased CapEx and the 6% to 8% EPS growth plan, particularly regarding the impact of PJM open window outcomes. He also asked if FirstEnergy is applying for large load tariffs or if existing tariffs and contract structures are sufficient to manage data center growth.

Answer

Brian Tierney, Chair, President, and CEO, clarified that the increased CapEx provides extreme confidence in achieving the 6% to 8% earnings per share growth range, targeting the upper end, and that any PJM open window awards beyond current modest expectations would be incremental to the plan. He stated that FirstEnergy does not currently see a need for large load tariffs, as existing tariffs and contract structures allow data center developers to be responsible for incremental investments, thereby protecting existing customers.

Anthony Crowdell sought clarification on FirstEnergy's CapEx comments, specifically whether additional projects strengthen the existing 6%-8% growth plan or if the current plan is modest with potential for a significant growth rate change. He also asked if a better-than-expected PJM open window outcome would bias the company towards the upper end of its 6%-8% range. Additionally, he inquired if FirstEnergy is applying for large load tariffs or if existing tariffs are sufficient for managing PJM service territory growth.

Answer

Brian Tierney, Chair, President, and CEO, clarified that the increased CapEx provides extreme confidence in achieving the 6%-8% earnings per share growth range, with a target towards the upper end, but does not change the stated growth rate. He reiterated that the PJM open window component is modest in the current plan, and while higher awards would be incremental, the 6%-8% target remains firm. He stated that FirstEnergy does not currently see a need for large load tariffs due to the flexibility of existing tariffs and contract structures, which allow data center developers to be responsible for incremental investments and protect existing customers.

Anthony Crowdell asked which state within FirstEnergy's footprint is most likely to take the lead in solving PJM capacity market issues. He also raised concerns about equipment procurement and supply chain constraints given the industry-wide increase in CapEx.

Answer

President, CEO & Chairman Brian Tierney identified Pennsylvania as demonstrating active leadership but noted all states are engaged, emphasizing a state-led solution is necessary. Regarding the supply chain, Tierney expressed confidence in the company's ability to execute its plans due to strong, long-term relationships with vendors and suppliers that are integrated into their planning processes.

Anthony Crowdell asked if the drivers for reaching the high end of 2025 guidance could be baked into future years and questioned the Ohio staff's position on extending the settlement window.

Answer

Jon Taylor, SVP and CFO, confirmed the goal is to continue the momentum from O&M efficiencies into 2026 and beyond. Brian Tierney, Chair, President and CEO, added that the tailwinds from disciplined investment and O&M in 2025 are repeatable. Regarding the Ohio staff, he interpreted their position not as a bias against settlement, but as a desire to move the year-old case forward expeditiously, which FirstEnergy supports.

Anthony Crowdell asked if costs currently recovered through Ohio's ESP could be moved into the general rate case if legislation eliminates the ESP mechanism. He also requested the dollar amount of revenue collected via the ESP.

Answer

Executive Brian Tierney affirmed they would seek to move any unrecovered costs into the rate case to ensure timely recovery if the law changed. Executive K. Taylor quantified the ESP-related revenue at $390 million from the DCR rider and under $50 million from the grid mod rider. Both executives stressed that these rider amounts are designed to be reset to zero and rolled into base rates during a general rate case, which derisks the revenue stream.

Anthony Crowdell questioned if unrecovered storm costs would alter future storm response, whether the 2024 CapEx increase would push EPS growth to the high end of the 6-8% range, and the expected timeline for resolving high PJM capacity charges.

Answer

Executive Brian Tierney asserted that storm response strategy will not change and the focus remains on safe, rapid restoration and timely cost recovery. He clarified the 2024 CapEx increase doesn't alter the long-term 6-8% growth outlook, which is based on the five-year plan. He also expressed concern over the multi-year disconnect between new load additions and the longer timeline for building new generation.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Financial Group asked what factors determine whether the company targets the high or low end of its 40% to 45% equity ratio range. He also asked for perspective on how investors should evaluate the credibility of Alliant's 'mature opportunities' pipeline compared to those of other utilities.

Answer

Executive VP and CFO Robert Durian explained that the target within the equity ratio range depends on maintaining credit ratings, with stronger FFO to debt metrics allowing for a ratio at the lower end. President and CEO Lisa Barton stated that Alliant avoids 'hype' by focusing on high-confidence projects, defining their 'mature' category as having an approximately 85% probability of closing, which she believes differentiates them.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Financial Group asked about the selection process for the minority stake sale, specifically why the Florida subsidiary was chosen over other jurisdictions.

Answer

President & CEO Harry Sideris explained that after reviewing the entire portfolio, Florida was selected because it is a premium asset in a great jurisdiction that could command a premium valuation. He noted it was a natural fit that garnered significant interest, providing the best value and most efficient source of funds.

Anthony Crowdell asked for the reasonable FFO to debt cushion to assume above the 14% target and about the trade-off between raising the EPS growth rate versus further strengthening the balance sheet.

Answer

CFO Brian Savoy stated that a 100 basis point cushion above the Moody's downgrade threshold is a solid target that provides flexibility. He explained that the significant step-up in load growth from 1.5-2% to 3-4% in 2027-2029 provides the clear opportunity to earn in the top half of the existing 5-7% EPS growth range, rather than prompting a change to the range itself at this time.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho inquired if Duke Energy would consider using the benefits from higher load growth to create a wider credit cushion beyond the current target and asked for a quantification of the O&M mitigation measures planned for the fourth quarter.

Answer

CEO Lynn Good confirmed that strengthening the credit cushion and planning for more storm contingency is something the company is actively working on and has learned from the 2024 events. Regarding Q4 mitigation, Good stated that while the company has not quantified a specific number, the efforts are significant and could result in Q4 O&M being lower than in 2023, but she declined to be more specific given the timing.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Financial Group asked management to reconcile its conservative stance on updating its long-term growth outlook with the significant increase in its capital plan and clear growth drivers, questioning the cautious 'not until 2027' messaging.

Answer

David Poroch, SVP & incoming CFO, attributed the stance to the company's conservative nature and large size, stating it takes significant, sustained momentum to move the needle. He explained that management needs to see the growth drivers, which are expected to materialize in the back half of the decade, play out and prove sustainable before committing to a change in the long-term outlook.

Anthony Crowdell sought clarification on the earnings growth baseline, the timeline for updates on the incremental $10-15 billion capital plan, and the average coupon of maturing parent debt.

Answer

CFO Dan Tucker confirmed the 5-7% growth is off the 2024 guidance midpoint. He suggested that while the official capital plan update is in Q4, more visibility on the incremental opportunities could come as early as the Q2 call. Regarding debt, he deferred on a specific coupon but noted that maturing debt is being refinanced at rates 150-200 basis points higher.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Financial Group asked about the possibility of wildfire fund (AB 1054) and affordability legislation being combined, and what factors beyond upfront equity would make PG&E hesitant to opt into a new framework.

Answer

CEO Patti Poppe acknowledged that a combined legislative package is possible. She explained that the decision to opt into any new framework would depend on the 'totality of the package,' which must be a net improvement over the status quo for both customers and the utility. Key considerations include fund durability, customer affordability, investor attractiveness, and a clear path to a long-term systemic solution.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Financial Group asked about the possibility of wildfire fund (AB 1054) and affordability legislation being combined, and what factors beyond upfront equity would make PG&E hesitant to opt into a new framework.

Answer

CEO Patti Poppe acknowledged that a combined legislative package is possible. She explained that the decision to opt-in would depend on the 'totality of the package,' which must be a net improvement for both customers and the company's cost of capital compared to the current situation, and include a path to a long-term fix.

Anthony Crowdell asked if the concurrent timing of the cost of capital and GRC filings is helping create a sense of urgency with California legislators for a wildfire fund solution.

Answer

CEO Patti Poppe acknowledged that affordability is 'job one' in Sacramento and that while rate filings can seem 'tone deaf,' PG&E is using them to demonstrate how investments can lower long-term costs for customers. She emphasized the upcoming GRC will be the 'lowest ask in a decade,' reinforcing their commitment to affordability and providing clear choices for policymakers.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho asked for an update on achieving an investment-grade rating from Moody's, given the time since the positive outlook was issued. He also questioned if a resolution to the wildfire fund is a prerequisite for a rating agency upgrade.

Answer

CEO Patti Poppe acknowledged the topic is top of mind and highlighted the company's improved credit metrics, strong cash flow, and conservative dividend policy as supportive of an upgrade. She said the rating agencies are taking a measured approach and looking for signals from policymakers, but the company remains confident its progress will be recognized. Poppe added that the December equity issuance significantly improved metrics, which stands on its own, separate from the wildfire risk.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the timing for the $10-15 billion transmission opportunity to be integrated into the base capital plan, the associated financing mix, and whether the quantum computing initiative in Illinois creates a unique growth opportunity for ComEd.

Answer

CFO Jeanne Jones stated that the transmission opportunities would be incorporated into the Q4 plan update following the completion of cluster studies and grid plan filings. She confirmed a financing rule of thumb of approximately 40% equity for new investments. CEO Calvin Butler affirmed that the quantum computing campus in Illinois represents a significant upside opportunity, separate from current forecasts, and noted that ComEd's early partnership was a key factor in securing the project for the state.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the timeline for incorporating the $10-15 billion transmission opportunity into the base capital plan, the associated equity financing mix, and whether Illinois' focus on quantum computing presents a unique growth opportunity for ComEd beyond the broader data center trend.

Answer

CFO Jeanne Jones explained the transmission opportunity would be integrated into the plan during the Q4 update, following a cluster study and ComEd's grid plan filing. She affirmed a general rule of 40% equity for financing new capital. CEO Calvin Butler confirmed that the quantum computing campus in Illinois represents a significant, unique upside opportunity for ComEd that is not yet factored into projections, highlighting ComEd's crucial early partnership in securing the project for the state.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho questioned if the RFP repricing would affect the company's high win rate, sought clarity on the magnitude of business transformation charges, and asked if analysts should update earned return assumptions based on future cost savings.

Answer

CEO Maria Pope and CFO Joe Trpik stated they expect solid performance in the RFP reprice and do not see the win rate changing. Trpik confirmed transformation charges are front-loaded in 2025 and will taper. He clarified that the resulting savings are intended to help the company perform within its guided earned ROE band, not necessarily exceed it.

Anthony Crowdell asked if achieving the 50/50 capital structure target is contingent on forming a holding company, what the target debt level at the holdco would be, and if there are any regulatory concerns in Oregon regarding double leverage.

Answer

SVP of Finance and CFO Joseph Trpik clarified that reaching the 50/50 capital structure at the utility does not depend on the holding company formation. He noted it was too early for specifics on the holdco's debt levels but stated its purpose is to enhance financing flexibility. He added that he is not aware of specific double leverage provisions but expects to clarify all operating rules with regulators.

Anthony Crowdell asked for the specific amount of structural lag experienced in 2024, measured in basis points, and inquired about the potential timeline for passing wildfire legislation in the current Oregon legislative session.

Answer

Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO Joseph Trpik stated the structural lag was approximately 70 basis points in 2024, which the company aims to reduce going forward through cost management. President and CEO Maria Pope explained that wildfire legislation bills would be submitted within weeks, with the session ending in June, but acknowledged the process is challenging and could potentially take two sessions.

Anthony Crowdell asked if the company will begin providing forward guidance on ITC contributions, when the long-term load growth forecast might be updated, and whether Oregon is experiencing any political shift away from green energy policies.

Answer

President & CEO Maria Pope responded that details on tax savings would be provided alongside new project announcements. She suggested a load growth forecast update is more likely with the IRP in March rather than the Q4 call. Pope also stated she is not aware of any significant ballot initiatives to change Oregon's green policies, noting that company strategy is guided by strong customer demand for clean energy.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho asked for quantification of the additional CapEx capacity that could be absorbed without new equity, clarification on the 5% operating cash flow improvement, and the strategic rationale for selling a high ROE asset like the Ohio gas business.

Answer

CEO Jason Wells declined to quantify the CapEx capacity beyond stating it was north of $500 million, deferring details to the upcoming plan refresh. He clarified the operating cash flow improvement is a 5% increase. On the Ohio sale, Wells explained the decision is based on enhancing the consolidated enterprise's earned cash returns and focusing management attention on the exponential growth in Texas, not just on authorized ROE or equity layers.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho asked for quantification of the additional CapEx capacity without new equity, clarification on the 5% operating cash flow improvement, and the strategic rationale for selling the high-ROE Ohio asset to fund growth elsewhere.

Answer

CEO Jason Wells declined to quantify the CapEx capacity beyond stating it was north of $500 million, deferring to a future update. He clarified the 5% is a one-time improvement in operating cash flows. On strategy, Wells explained the decision is driven by enhancing the consolidated 'earned cash returns' and focusing management attention on the exponential growth in Texas, rather than just authorized ROE.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho Financial Group asked about NextEra's natural gas strategy, specifically whether the company would pursue acquisitions of existing assets or focus on new builds, and also requested clarification on the timing of the next Analyst Day.

Answer

Brian Bolster, President & CEO of NextEra Energy Resources, explained that their gas strategy includes both new builds and evaluating market opportunities for existing assets, provided the value is attractive and there is a clear path to near-term contracting. John Ketchum, President, CEO & Chairman, confirmed that the next Analyst Day is planned for late 2025 or early 2026.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho asked for clarity on the O&M expense trajectory for 2025, whether offsets were needed after the Colorado rate case decision, and the reason for using the word 'targeting' versus 'affirming' for the long-term EPS growth rate.

Answer

Kimberly Nooney, SVP and CFO, explained that Q1 O&M was outsized due to timing and non-recurring items and that the Colorado rate decision was holistically in line with their plan. She explicitly reaffirmed the 4-6% long-term EPS growth rate, clarifying that 'targeting' referred to the range itself and reiterated confidence in operating at the upper end of that range starting in 2026.

Anthony Crowdell inquired about the shift in the 5-year CapEx forecast, particularly the reduction of a 2026 spike, and questioned the updated timeline for data center EPS contribution, which moved from 2028 to 2029.

Answer

SVP & CFO Kimberly Nooney explained the CapEx shift was due to updated project timelines and a $400 million plan increase from organic growth, inflation, and financing costs. She clarified the data center EPS timeline reflects overall EPS growth, with the data center component remaining a significant driver pushing the company toward the high end of its 4-6% long-term growth rate.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho inquired if the Bab Road fire settlement creates a precedent for handling future incidents. He also asked about the potential valuation impact on Avista's unregulated business from the ongoing LUMEN-1 biotech trials.

Answer

President and CEO Heather Rosentrater stated the settlement does not set a precedent, as it was based on the unique facts of that specific case and any future situation would be considered on its own merits. Regarding the unregulated business, CFO Kevin Christie explained that while there could be a future valuation impact from the trials, it is too early to see a valuation markup, with more firm results expected in late 2025 or early 2026.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho asked for clarification on the 4-6% growth rate, inquiring if it would be achieved annually or if volatility is expected, and whether the growth base would be reset off actual results. He also questioned if the zero-contribution assumption for non-utility businesses would continue in future years and asked for the specific negative impact from the ERM included in 2025 guidance.

Answer

CFO Kevin Christie explained that while the company generally plans to be within the 4-6% growth range annually, the timing of regulatory outcomes in multiple jurisdictions could create some 'lumpy' results. He stated a desire to rebase the growth forecast annually but noted it depends on rate case progress and new investments. Christie confirmed the plan is to assume a near-zero contribution from 'other businesses' going forward based on historical performance. He quantified the negative impact from the Energy Recovery Mechanism (ERM) included in the 2025 guidance midpoint as $0.12 per share.

Anthony Crowdell inquired about the details behind the revised guidance for the 'other businesses' segment, which is now projected to be a loss for the year. He also asked for an update on the results of two Washington state ballot initiatives concerning the Climate Commitment Act and energy choice.

Answer

CFO Kevin Christie confirmed the loss in the 'other businesses' segment is due to mark-to-market valuations on its investment portfolio, as the expected recovery in private equity and clean tech markets has not yet occurred. CEO Dennis Vermillion reported that the initiative to repeal the Climate Commitment Act (I-2117) failed, while the energy choice initiative (I-2066) was currently too close to call.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho Financial Group asked about the drivers behind the strong residential electric load growth and sought more details on the Cloverleaf data center project, including its potential generation mix and load timing.

Answer

Executive Scott Lauber and CFO Xia Liu attributed the strong residential growth primarily to weather normalization against the historically warm first quarter of 2024. Regarding Cloverleaf, Scott Lauber confirmed its potential for 1 to 3.5 gigawatts of load and stated that a buyer for the site is expected soon. He anticipates the generation mix will be a combination of gas and renewables, with more details to be provided in the third-quarter update.

Anthony Crowdell asked about the impact of recent Ohio legislation on AES Ohio, specifically concerning multi-year rate plans and the removal of OVEC revenues, and whether it alters the company's rate filing strategy.

Answer

COO Ricardo Falu described the legislation as a 'net positive.' He explained that the old framework is being replaced by a more constructive 3-year forward-looking rate case with annual true-ups, which eliminates regulatory lag for the growing utility. He noted the OVEC impact is minimal ($0-$10 million) and that AES Ohio will likely file its next distribution rate case by the end of the year.

Anthony Crowdell asked if there were any desired provisions missing from the recently passed wildfire legislation and inquired whether the company might pursue a state-backed wildfire fund in the future.

Answer

CEO Lisa Grow and an executive from the legal team expressed satisfaction with the legislation, viewing it as a successful first step that contained the majority of desired protections. Regarding a fund, Grow explained that creating a sufficiently large fund in a small state like Idaho is challenging. She mentioned that while it's not a current priority, the company is exploring other strategies like its existing insurance coverage or a potential captive insurance product.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho inquired about the upcoming California rate case, specifically the expected percentage increase, and the filing timeline for the state's cost of capital proceeding.

Answer

Executive Vice President and CFO David Bowler stated that the company has not disclosed the requested percentage increase for the California rate case. He and President John Griffith clarified that the separate cost of capital proceeding was delayed, with a filing planned for 2026 to set new rates for January 2027, thereby keeping the current 10.2% ROE in place through 2025.

Anthony Crowdell asked about the timing of the planned equity issuances in 2026 and 2029, questioning whether the company times them with specific CapEx needs or considers an annual program versus a block issuance.

Answer

EVP and CFO David Bowler stated that the company times its equity issuances based on the need to maintain its strong balance sheet. He clarified they will issue when the funding is needed, aiming not to be too early or too late, rather than following a fixed annual schedule.

Anthony Crowdell sought clarity on soft residential sales in Q1 and asked if introducing a new tariff for large load customers could complicate the biennial review process.

Answer

Steven Ridge, EVP and CFO, clarified that while Q1 residential sales were slightly weak, overall sales are trending above guidance due to strong commercial demand. Robert Blue, Chair, President and CEO, added that addressing rate classes is a standard part of rate cases and he does not believe the new tariff proposal will unduly complicate the review.

Anthony Crowdell asked for a rule of thumb regarding the timeline for a data center project to transition through the various contracting stages, from initial engineering letter to a final electrical service agreement.

Answer

EVP & CFO Steven Ridge explained that under the new batching system, the total time from a customer's initial inquiry to receiving power is now estimated to be between 4 and 7 years. He clarified that there is no specific timeline for moving between the individual stages, as the process is highly 'bespoke' and dependent on each project's specific location and infrastructure needs.

Anthony Crowdell asked about the company's calculus for evaluating its financial plan and the potential for revising its earnings growth rate, given industry trends and the company's own growth opportunities.

Answer

CFO Steven Ridge responded that while the company sees tailwinds from strong load growth and capital opportunities, the primary objective of the financial plan is to deliver consistent, high-quality, predictable, low-risk earnings. He stated that any potential changes to rate base or earnings growth would be carefully considered annually to ensure they do not jeopardize this core objective and are financed prudently.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho sought to confirm that the credit-enhancing items mentioned were external factors, rather than internal actions to raise the FFO to debt target above 17%. He also asked about recent communications with Moody's.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Charles Walworth confirmed the specific items discussed, such as legislation, were external, but added that the company's continued execution on its plan is an internal factor that supports its credit profile. He also confirmed that Moody's has communicated a 12 to 18-month timeframe to resolve the current negative outlook.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho asked for clarity on what percentage of gross margin comes from the fast-growing commercial load. He also inquired about the expected size of the rate increase in the upcoming Oklahoma rate case, given the mitigating effect of strong load growth.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Charles Walworth highlighted that the commercial growth is broad and includes crypto load, which is beneficial due to direct load control and low incremental investment. Chairman, President and CEO R. Trauschke confirmed that strong load growth is expected to mitigate the customer impact of the next rate case, but did not provide a specific percentage for the requested increase.

Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho requested clarification on the plaintiff's 'Unidentified Flying Object' theory for the Marshall fire and asked for an update on the schedule for coal plant retirements, such as the Comanche plant.

Answer

CFO Brian Van Abel confirmed that one of the new theories from plaintiffs' experts was that an 'Unidentified Flying Object' hit their lines. CEO Robert Frenzel addressed the coal plant retirements, stating the plan to retire about one plant per year this decade is on track. He confirmed the second unit at the Comanche plant is expected to shut down at the end of the year, with renewable projects like the Colorado Power Pathway serving as the reliability replacement.

Anthony Crowdell sought to contrast the sense of urgency between data center customers and other industrial customers. He also asked if non-data center projects receive greater political and regulatory support due to broader economic development.

Answer

CFO Brian Van Abel explained that speed to market is critical for data center customers, but significant urgency also exists with oil and gas customers, as reflected in resource plans. He clarified that large data centers also bring substantial economic benefits, including construction jobs and a significant tax base, and that demonstrating value to all customers is key to gaining regulatory approval for any large project.

Anthony Crowdell asked what gives management confidence that the next California general rate case won't result in another negative reset for the financial plan. He also suggested that providing annual guidance beyond two years could increase transparency around the company's non-linear earnings growth.

Answer

CEO Jeffery Martin expressed confidence in future regulatory outcomes, citing the use of a forward test year in the next California GRC and upside opportunities from pending FERC dockets and Oncor's capital structure. Regarding guidance, Martin acknowledged the non-linear nature of their growth and agreed on the importance of transparency, stating the management team is open-minded about different ways to illustrate the company's long-term earnings power to avoid an 'asymmetry of knowledge' with investors.

Anthony Crowdell questioned Ameren's ability to procure and add 1,600 megawatts of new gas-fired generation by 2030 given industry-wide challenges, and asked for a repeat of the S&P credit rating metric details.

Answer

EVP & CFO Michael Moehn expressed confidence in adding the gas generation, stating that Ameren has already taken steps to procure necessary critical components to mitigate supply chain risks. He also reiterated the S&P rating metrics, clarifying that the downgrade threshold is 13% FFO-to-debt and Ameren is currently operating well above that level.

Anthony Crowdell asked about the apparent mismatch between the pace of data center announcements and PPA signings, and inquired if another renewable company's struggles were isolated or indicative of a broader challenge for yieldCos.

Answer

Connor Teskey (executive) explained the bottleneck is not a lack of PPA demand but a shortage of ready-to-build projects due to long development timelines, which makes advanced pipelines highly valuable. Regarding other companies, he stated that while the sector has tremendous tailwinds, some individual firms face headwinds from specific technology concentrations or aggressive capital structures, which Brookfield has deliberately avoided, positioning itself for success.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Securities questioned the apparent mismatch between the rapid pace of data center announcements and the slower pace of PPA signings. He also asked if another renewable company's decision to cut growth signals a broader structural challenge for the industry.

Answer

Connor Teskey, an executive, explained the bottleneck is not a lack of demand for PPAs but a shortage of 'ready-to-build' projects due to long permitting and development timelines, which makes their advanced pipeline highly valuable. Regarding the other company, he characterized it as a discrete issue related to specific business strategies, such as technology concentration or aggressive financing, rather than a reflection of the broader sector, for which he sees tremendous tailwinds.

Anthony Crowdell questioned the assumptions behind the 5-7% EPS growth rate, specifically regarding regulatory lag, and asked if the company is exploring alternative rate designs for large load customers.

Answer

CFO Andrew Cooper explained that resolving regulatory lag would primarily create a smoother, more predictable 5-7% EPS growth trajectory rather than being a prerequisite for achieving it. CEO Jeffrey Guldner confirmed they are focused on rate designs that protect the existing customer base from the costs of serving new large loads. APS President Theodore Geisler added that their experience since 2019 with large data centers has helped them develop accurate forecasting and cost allocation methods.

Anthony Crowdell asked about the timing for achieving the 9.1% ROE improvement and whether the company faces challenges, such as connection delays, in serving the new large load customers.

Answer

EVP and CFO Chuck Zebula indicated the 9.1% regulated ROE is the expectation for next year. President and CEO William Fehrman acknowledged that connecting new load at the speed customers desire is a challenge but stated the company is developing creative solutions and does not foresee major supply chain issues.

Anthony Crowdell asked when investors should model the ROE improvement to 9.1% and whether connecting new large-load customers is facing significant delays.

Answer

CFO Charles Zebula advised modeling a 9.1% ROE for regulated utilities starting next year. CEO William Fehrman acknowledged that connecting customers is a challenge but stated the company is managing it through creative solutions and does not foresee major supply chain issues.

Anthony Crowdell asked for clarification on the timing of the next load growth forecast update. He also inquired if the company has quantified the expected value of tax credit transferability over the next five years.

Answer

EVP and CFO Rejji Hayes confirmed that investors will get multiple updates on the load forecast: first in the Renewable Energy Plan filing in the coming weeks, and again with the new 5-year plan on the Q4 call in early 2025. Regarding tax credits, Hayes stated that the current 5-year plan embeds a little over $0.5 billion from transferability, but he expects that number to increase over time with more renewable ownership and strong execution. A revised number will be provided with the next 5-year plan update.

Anthony Crowdell asked what level of regulatory certainty NorthWestern would require from Montana before proceeding with a major investment like the Colstrip baghouse. He also questioned the company's flexibility to reallocate capital to more supportive states.

Answer

CEO Brian Bird stated that the outcome of the current rate review will provide a strong indication of the commission's support for Colstrip. He emphasized that if the state wants to be energy independent, it must support utility investments, and the commission's signals will determine the company's willingness to invest in future Montana generation.

Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho Securities asked how PSEG manages the dynamic where higher power prices benefit its generation assets but could lead to higher customer bills, potentially crowding out the capacity for rate base investment.

Answer

Ralph LaRossa, Chairman, President and CEO, expressed confidence in managing this balance, noting that regional income growth has kept the utility bill's share of a customer's wallet consistent over time. He does not foresee a scenario where this would crowd out necessary utility investments. Daniel Cregg, EVP and CFO, added that the federal nuclear PTC helps by shifting support from state ratepayers to the federal level.

Anthony Crowdell questioned if the company's FFO to debt credit cushion is sufficient given high industry-wide spending and storm severity, and asked about long-term sales growth expectations resulting from the highlighted economic development projects.

Answer

CFO David Ruud affirmed that the target FFO to debt ratio of 15-16% provides good headroom to downgrade thresholds and that rating agencies are comfortable with this level. He stated that long-term base economic sales growth is consistent with the current ~1% trend, with potential upside from data centers and EV adoption further out.

Asked for the specific AFUDC rate for the NECEC project in 2024, commented on the regulatory environment in Connecticut, and inquired about the time horizon for the long-term guidance to be provided in March.

Answer

The NECEC AFUDC rate for 2024 is 8.5%. The company expressed disappointment with the Connecticut rate case outcome, which is under appeal, but noted that recent comments from the governor encouraging collaboration are a positive sign. The long-term outlook provided in March will extend to at least 2025, with consideration for including 2026.