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    Antonio Reale • Bank of America

    Antonio Reale's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership

    Antonio Reale's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Antonio Reale from Bank of America inquired about BBVA's guidance for Turkey, focusing on the expected trends for Net Interest Income (NII) and cost of risk following a recent rate hike. He also asked about the strong Q1 loan and deposit activity in Spain and when management expects NII to trough in that region.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç explained that the guidance for Turkey's net profit was revised to 'somewhat below €1 billion' due to higher-than-expected inflation and interest rate forecasts, providing specific profit sensitivities for each macro driver. CFO Maria Gomez Bravo addressed Spain, stating that the bank's active management of its balance sheet, including increasing its ALCO portfolio and reducing rate sensitivity, supports the guidance for only a slight NII decline for the year despite a more negative rate outlook. She noted Spain's economic resilience should sustain strong activity levels.

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    Antonio Reale's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Antonio Reale from Bank of America inquired about the outlook for Turkey, specifically the expected trends for Net Interest Income (NII) and cost of risk following a recent rate hike. He also asked about Spain's strong Q1 activity, the potential impact of tariffs, and when NII might reach its lowest point in the year.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç explained that the profit guidance for Turkey was revised slightly below €1 billion due to higher-than-expected inflation and interest rates, providing specific sensitivities for each macro factor. CFO Maria Gomez Bravo addressed Spain, reaffirming the guidance for a slight NII decline despite lower rate expectations, supported by a reduced NII sensitivity to 4% and a €5 billion increase in the ALCO book. Onur Genç added that Spain's NIM actually rose 7 bps in the quarter.

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    Antonio Reale's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Antonio Reale from Bank of America inquired about the flexibility of the cost base in Mexico should revenues disappoint, and asked for details on Turkey's interest rate duration mismatch and NIM trajectory for 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Maria Gomez Bravo explained that Mexico's cost base has significant flexibility through variable sales compensation and adjustable IT project spending. Executive Onur Genç added that the base case for Mexico remains strong growth. For Turkey, Genç stated that the bank increased its duration gap from two to five months in 2024, positioning it to benefit if interest rates fall from 45% to the bank's 30% year-end target.

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    Antonio Reale's questions to UBS Group AG (UBS) leadership

    Antonio Reale's questions to UBS Group AG (UBS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Antonio Reale of Bank of America asked why the parent company (AG) CET1 ratio saw a minimal increase despite a $13 billion capital repatriation. He also requested details on the Swiss P&C business's rate sensitivity and options to mitigate NII headwinds.

    Answer

    CFO Todd Tuckner explained the limited impact on the AG CET1 ratio was due to a dividend accrual from the AG to the group holding company, which was necessary to address capital structure issues like double leverage. For P&C, he said mitigants include growing non-NII revenue, but with a flat, low-rate curve, hedging options are limited, and they must wait for a change in the rate environment.

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    Antonio Reale's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership

    Antonio Reale's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Antonio Reale from Bank of America asked about CaixaBank's ability to defer profitability from 2024 to 2025 by front-loading charges and sought details on the assumptions behind the upgraded Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, particularly regarding deposit growth and hedging.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar stated that the bank does not manage profitability between years and is confident about future performance. CFO Javier Pano explained the NII upgrade is primarily driven by strong deposit volumes, with about half of the Q2 inflows being seasonal. He confirmed the increased hedging aims to limit NII sensitivity and noted that the 2025 consensus for NII still has upside potential, increasingly based on volumes.

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    Antonio Reale's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Antonio Reale from BofA Securities asked about CaixaBank's ability to defer profitability into future years, the key assumptions behind the upgraded Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, and the split of NII benefits from deposit growth and hedges between 2024 and 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar stated the bank does not manage profitability between years and is confident about future performance driven by strong activity. CFO Javier Pano explained the NII guidance upgrade is primarily based on higher-than-expected deposit volumes, driven by a high household savings rate, rather than rate changes. He confirmed the bank continues to add hedges to limit NII sensitivity and sees upside to the 2025 consensus NII, increasingly based on volume growth.

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