Asher Sohnen is an Equity Research Senior Associate at Citigroup Inc., supporting sector analysis and institutional coverage as part of the firm's equity research team. He contributes to the coverage of companies such as Forestar Group Inc., representing Citigroup in industry earnings calls and research functions. With experience in research roles at Citi since at least 2023, Sohnen has established himself in the equity research space, working closely with senior analysts on fundamental company analysis and market insights. Professional credentials and specific performance metrics are not publicly available, but Sohnen's responsibilities reflect a strong foundation in equities research and institutional client service.
Asher Sohnen asked for a deeper dive into key geographies, specifically what Vulcan is observing regarding stronger backlogs across its markets.
Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO, indicated widespread backlog strength, with the Southeast being particularly healthy due to strong public demand and a turn in non-residential, including data centers. Single-family remains a drag but other sectors are compensating.
Asher Sohnen, on behalf of Anthony Pettinari at Citigroup, questioned if there has been any pressure on the pace of IIJA or IRA-related project rollouts due to administrative policies or executive orders.
CEO James Hill reported no negative impact on their business from administrative policies. He confirmed that IIJA funds are flowing as expected and that state budgets for the upcoming fiscal year appear set for growth. Hill also highlighted an additional $45 billion from local road and bridge measures passed in the previous election cycle. With two-thirds of IIJA funding yet to be spent, he expressed confidence in the public demand outlook for the next few years.
Asher Sohnen from Citigroup inquired about any potential pressure on the pace of IIJA project rollouts from administrative policy and the expected impact of tariffs on the business.
CEO Tom Hill stated that he sees no policy impact on public demand, as IIJA funds are protected by dedicated long-term funding. Regarding tariffs, he noted a 'very little impact' on aggregates directly and expressed confidence that the company's 'Vulcan Way' disciplines would allow them to navigate any indirect effects on materials like steel and rubber.
Aysher Sohnen asked about any changes in the competitive environment from the prior quarter, particularly in response to slowing residential demand, and inquired which product groups are most exposed to the residential end markets, and if the anticipated residential slowdown would drive any shifts in inventory positioning strategy.
Mark Witkowski (CEO) stated there has been no meaningful change in the competitive environment, describing it as typical for several quarters, with Core & Main's stability being valued by customers. He clarified that fire protection is more focused on non-residential/multifamily, while other end markets have a standard product mix. He added that resource allocation is adjusted by shifting headcount and resources to growth areas from softer residential markets, rather than major inventory strategy shifts.
Asher Sohnen asked if the competitive environment had changed from the prior quarter, particularly in response to slowing residential demand, and for insights into current competitive dynamics.
CEO Mark Witkowski stated there has been no meaningful change in the competitive environment, describing it as typical for several quarters. He noted that regional competitors 'going after each other' in limited markets plays into Core & Main's hands due to its stability.
Asher Sohnen from Citigroup Inc. sought clarification on the updated guidance, noting that while lot delivery volume was trimmed, revenue guidance was reiterated, implying a higher average sales price (ASP). He asked about the drivers behind this improved pricing.
VP of Finance & IR Chris Hibbetts confirmed that a higher-than-expected ASP realized year-to-date allowed them to maintain revenue guidance. He attributed the higher ASP primarily to the geographic and lot size mix of deliveries, supplemented by some lot price increases stemming from the national shortage of finished lots.
Asher Sohnen from Citigroup sought clarification on the updated guidance, noting that while lot delivery volume was trimmed, revenue guidance was reiterated, implying a higher average selling price (ASP). He asked about the drivers behind these lot price increases.
VP of Finance & IR Chris Hibbetts explained that the maintained revenue guidance reflects a higher ASP realized year-to-date. This increase is partly due to modest price hikes, consistent with original guidance, but is largely driven by the specific mix of higher-priced communities that delivered lots during the period.
Asher Sohnen, on behalf of Citigroup, asked for clarification on the updated guidance, noting that while lot delivery guidance was lowered, revenue guidance was maintained, implying a higher average sales price (ASP). He also questioned the primary drivers behind the lot price increases.
VP of Finance & IR Chris Hibbetts clarified that the reiterated revenue guidance reflects a higher ASP realized year-to-date, which is largely a function of the geographic and lot size mix of deliveries, along with some lot price increases. He noted these price increases were anticipated due to the national shortage of finished lots.
Asher Sohnen from Citigroup asked for clarification on the updated guidance, where lot volume was reduced but revenue guidance was maintained, implying a higher average sales price (ASP). He also sought to understand the specific drivers behind the lot price increases.
VP of Finance & IR Chris Hibbetts clarified that the revenue guidance was maintained because the ASP realized year-to-date has been higher than initially projected. He attributed this primarily to a favorable mix of lot deliveries from higher-priced communities, along with some lot price increases driven by the national shortage of finished lots.
Asher Sohnen, on for Anthony Pettinari, inquired about year-to-date builder demand trends, whether customers like D.R. Horton were altering lot takedowns, and the expected cadence of lot deliveries for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Chief Operating Officer Mark Walker described builder demand as strong, especially for new communities, with no significant delays in takedowns. Executive Anthony Oxley reiterated that Q1 is seasonally their lowest delivery quarter and that they expect a progression similar to fiscal 2024, with a majority of deliveries occurring in the second half of the year.
Asher Sohnen, on behalf of Anthony Pettinari at Citigroup Inc., asked if any markets in the 2025 development pipeline are considered oversupplied, inquired about an updated timeline for deconsolidation from D.R. Horton, and questioned if the company can still grow significantly without accessing capital markets.
CEO Anthony Oxley responded that the company is not seeing any inventory buildup at affordable price points and that demand remains robust across the country. CFO James Allen clarified that deconsolidation is a D.R. Horton decision and affirmed Forestar can fund growth with its existing balance sheet, though it plans to add debt opportunistically as its equity base grows. Executive Katie Smith added that a recent shelf filing was a routine renewal.
Asher Sohnen, on for Anthony Pettinari, asked about demand trends in private non-residential and commercial end markets and the expected cadence of capital spending for the Duke, Oklahoma modernization project.
CFO D. Kesler noted that private non-residential, which is about 25% of cement demand, remains a steady business, supported by large, multi-year projects, especially in Eagle's geographic markets. For the Duke project, Kesler projected that total company capital spending would increase to a range of $475 million to $525 million in fiscal 2026, covering Duke, Mountain Cement, and sustaining capital, before trailing off in fiscal 2027.
Asher Sohnen, on for Anthony Pettinari, asked about the early realization of January cement price hikes and the potential for a mid-year increase. He also questioned the cement margin outlook, excluding the recent maintenance headwinds.
CFO D. Kesler stated it was too early to comment on realization for the spring price increases or to speculate on a second hike. He expressed optimism for margin improvement driven by the spring construction season, the eventual flow-through of IIJA funds, and the absence of the unique maintenance costs incurred this quarter.
Asher Sohnen of Citigroup inquired about the expected magnitude of increased maintenance costs in the upcoming quarter and asked for an outlook on both the near-term and long-term margin profile for the Cement business.
CFO Craig Kesler projected a $6 million to $8 million incremental maintenance cost impact in the third quarter from projects at the Texas Lehigh and Tulsa facilities. For the long-term, Mr. Kesler stated that the cement industry has fundamentally changed due to regulations restricting new capacity, which he believes will support a more resilient and higher margin profile for the industry and for Eagle's high-quality asset base over the cycle.
Asher Sohnen, on for Anthony Pettinari at Citigroup, asked about the most attractive geographic regions for growth and the company's appetite for share repurchases in 2025.
CEO Bryan Fairbanks clarified that while new product designs address gaps in Western markets, they have widespread appeal across the entire country. Regarding capital allocation, he confirmed a share repurchase program covering roughly 10% of the float remains available and that the company has been active even during periods of high capital spending, suggesting it would not be a deterrent if the right opportunity arises.
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