Ashley Owens

Ashley Owens inquired about the drivers behind the positive comparable store sales performance quarter-to-date in Q3 fiscal 2025, seeking insights into traffic, transaction trends, and brand-level contributions. She also asked about Oxford Industries' promotional planning for the back half of the year and any brand-specific nuances, considering the volatile environment and margin pressures.

Answer

Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, stated that all brands contributed to the positive comps, with Lilly Pulitzer remaining positive and Tommy Bahama improving to flattish. He attributed the strength primarily to traffic recovery in July and August, noting that conversions and average order values remained strong. Regarding promotions, Mr. Chubb indicated that the company plans to follow historical patterns, remaining nimble while balancing price integrity with inventory movement. Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO, added that the Tommy Bahama Friends and Family sale was successfully shifted from September to August.

Ashley Owens asked about the drivers behind the positive comparable store sales performance quarter-to-date, including insights into traffic, transactions, and brand-level contributions.

Answer

Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, explained that positive comps quarter-to-date were seen across all brands, with Lilly Pulitzer remaining positive and Tommy Bahama improving to flattish. He attributed this strength primarily to a recovery in traffic during July and August, noting that conversions and average order values remained strong. Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO, added details on promotional strategy, mentioning the shift of Tommy Bahama's Friends and Family sale to August, which proved effective.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the key drivers of Lilly Pulitzer's strong performance, strategies to maintain its momentum, and the company's pricing plans for its other brands amidst tariff and promotional pressures.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Tom Chubb credited Lilly's success to focusing on its most dedicated customers with new, brand-aligned products. He noted that for Tommy Bahama, a sub-3% price increase for Spring 2026 is planned to recover gross margin dollars. CFO and COO Scott Grassmyer added that significant price adjustments for 2025 are limited, but modest increases are set for Fall 2025, with full tariff mitigation expected by Spring 2026.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the key learnings from Lilly Pulitzer's strong Q1 performance and the strategies to maintain that momentum. She also asked about pricing plans for other brands to offset margin pressures from tariffs and promotions.

Answer

Chairman, CEO & President Tom Chubb attributed Lilly Pulitzer's success to focusing on its most committed customers with products that are both true to the brand's DNA and currently relevant. For pricing, he cited a plan for Tommy Bahama in Spring 2026 to increase AUR by less than 3% to recover gross profit dollars. EVP, CFO & COO Scott Grassmyer added that modest price increases are planned for Fall 2025, with full tariff mitigation expected by Spring 2026.

Ashley Owens of Telsey Advisory Group inquired about the Q1 2025 guidance, seeking to understand the magnitude of various headwinds by brand. She also asked for the assumptions behind the full-year revenue guidance, trends in wholesale partner orders, and details on the turnaround plan for Johnny Was, including areas of weakness and non-assortment related opportunities.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Thomas Chubb explained that Lilly Pulitzer is the strongest performing brand, while others are slightly down, partially due to the Easter calendar shift. He also detailed the Johnny Was plan, focusing on improving retail execution, rebuilding the wholesale business, and enhancing marketing spend efficiency. CFO and COO K. Grassmyer added that for the full year, new store openings are expected to partially offset negative comp assumptions, with Lilly and smaller brands planned for positive comps while Tommy Bahama and Johnny Was are planned for negative comps.

Ashley Owens inquired about the specific brand performance behind the improved store comps in the fourth quarter and sought details on the wholesale order book for the resort season, including the level of product newness.

Answer

CFO & COO K. Grassmyer stated that all brands saw improving trends post-election, with comps moving from double-digit negative to low single-digit negative. Chairman & CEO Thomas Chubb added that Lilly Pulitzer was the strongest performer. Regarding wholesale, Chubb noted strong current in-season performance and encouraging early bookings for next year, attributing the success to product innovation winning against competitors.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets delved into the record number of new consignors, asking about the specific strategies and tools driving this growth. She also requested an update on the rollout of the 'Athena' automation platform, including its current assortment coverage and impact on processing metrics.

Answer

President and CEO Rati Sahi Levesque attributed the new consignor growth to a full-funnel marketing reinvestment and the 'growth playbook,' which includes a new sales compensation structure, a richer referral program, and the 'Reconsign' feature. She stated that the Athena platform now covers 20% of units, with a target of 30-40% by year-end, and aims to cut 'multiple dollars' from the cost per unit in the medium term.

Ashley Owens inquired about the key drivers behind the significant improvement in direct revenue gross margin, its future sustainability, and consumer behavior trends amid macro uncertainty.

Answer

CFO Ajay Gopal detailed that the direct business, now comprised of out-of-policy returns, select vendor buys, and the 'Get Paid Now' program, has a dramatically improved profitability profile, with margins expected to remain around 20%. CEO Rati Levesque added that consumer health has been consistent on both the buyer and seller sides, with the company's growth playbook successfully driving supply.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked for details on the expected drivers of SG&A leverage in 2025 and inquired about the planned pace of new store openings for the year.

Answer

CFO Ajay Gopal explained that SG&A leverage will come from both variable costs, through sales team efficiency gains via AI tools, and the fixed G&A cost base, which is now established and will provide leverage as revenue grows. CEO Rati Levesque reiterated the strategy of opening 1 to 3 stores per year, confirming one new store is planned for 2025 and noting the strong performance of the two stores opened in Q4 2024.

Ashley Owens asked for an update on consumer price sensitivity and the expected balance between volume versus Average Order Value (AOV) growth for Q4. She also questioned the holiday marketing strategy and the sustainable level of marketing spend.

Answer

CEO Rati Levesque stated the business model is resilient, with strong demand driven by the intersection of value and luxury. On marketing, Levesque noted Q4 spend will be seasonally higher but the company will continue to drive efficiencies through better attribution and personalization. CFO Ajay Gopal added that recent marketing investments are being funded by operational efficiencies.

Asked by Chris on behalf of Ashley Owens, the questions focused on the financial implications of product mix and capital allocation. He asked about the impact of higher fine jewelry growth on margins, consumer purchasing habits towards lower-priced items, and the company's strategy behind its recent debt payoff and future capital deployment.

Answer

The company explained that the shift towards fine jewelry is a strategic choice and its impact on average order value (AOV) is expected, while consumer behavior remains stable. The debt payoff and dividend were driven by a strong balance sheet and confidence in funding future growth in brand, showrooms, and fine jewelry, which also provides interest savings.

Ashley Owens asked for an update on engagement ring dynamics, specifically if positive unit growth continued into Q2. She also inquired about the expected revenue phasing between Q3 and Q4 and sought details on tariff impacts, sourcing exposure, and how Brilliant Earth's mitigation strategy differs from competitors.

Answer

CEO Beth Gerstein confirmed that positive engagement ring unit growth continued from Q1 into Q2. CFO Jeff Kuo reiterated that revenue growth will be back-half weighted, driven by engagement ring improvements, strong fine jewelry performance, and showroom annualization. Kuo added that the limited tariff impact is included in guidance and that the company's nimble sourcing, limited China exposure, and price optimization engine provide a competitive advantage to mitigate these costs.

Ashley Owens inquired about the embedded assumptions in the 2025 gross margin guidance, particularly the mix-shift impact from fine jewelry, and also asked about the company's strategy for driving repeat orders and attracting new customers.

Answer

CFO Jeff Kuo reiterated the medium-term guidance for a high 50s gross margin, driven by brand strength, proprietary products, and procurement efficiencies. CEO Beth Gerstein added that strong repeat order growth is fueled by brand resonance, customer experience, and compelling new collections. For new customer acquisition, she highlighted data-driven marketing, influencer partnerships, and a focus on social media engagement.

Inquired about the trends driving the difference between new and repeat customer orders, asking if there was a slowdown in new customer acquisition. Also asked how marketing leverage was achieved and what the future investment focus for marketing will be in 2025.

Answer

The difference in order trends is attributed to softer demand in the bridal market, which impacts new customers more, while repeat purchases in fine jewelry and other categories are strong. The company views the customer journey as omnichannel. Marketing leverage was achieved through dynamic and efficient management, with a continued strategic focus on social media, brand awareness, fine jewelry growth, and showroom expansion to drive long-term growth.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked for an explanation of the divergence between flat total orders and 11% growth in repeat orders, questioning if it signaled a slowdown in new customer acquisition. She also inquired about where marketing spend was reduced to achieve leverage and the key investment areas for 2025.

Answer

CEO Beth Gerstein attributed the trend to softer demand from new bridal customers, who are younger and more impacted by inflation, while repeat purchases in fine jewelry and wedding bands remain strong. She stated that marketing remains dynamic, with continued investment in brand awareness, fine jewelry launches like the Jane Goodall collection, and showroom expansion. CFO Jeffrey Kuo added that the company is seeing sequential improvement in engagement ring bookings heading into Q4.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about lead times under the new sourcing model and the growth outlook for the Australia/New Zealand region for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CEO Ciaran Long stated he is happy with the new supply chain partners who can support the test-and-repeat model with short lead times, which is critical for staying on-trend and driving financial performance. CFO Kevin Grant addressed the Australia region, noting Q2's flat performance was better than expected and that an improving macro environment gives them confidence. He projected flat to slightly up sales growth for the region in the second half of the year.

Questioned the sustainability of U.S. growth against tough comps, asked about achieving leverage on selling expenses despite store opening costs, and inquired about the cost profile of new sourcing partners outside of China.

Answer

U.S. growth is deemed sustainable, driven by new customer acquisition via wholesale and retail channels and category expansion. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for selling expenses, expecting leverage despite store costs. Regarding new suppliers, the focus is on quality and model fit, with confidence in achieving cost parity with China over time.

Inquired about the factors contributing to the flat gross margin guidance for the year, including the impact of wholesale and tariffs, and asked for an updated view on the long-term business mix between channels like wholesale and retail stores.

Answer

The flat gross margin guidance for FY25 includes known tariffs and mitigation efforts. The first half will benefit from lapping prior year promotions in Australia. The shape of the year will be similar to FY24, with Q4 being more promotional. The impact from growing wholesale is not expected to be tremendous this year. Long-term, the business will remain predominantly online, but wholesale and physical stores are seen as significant growth opportunities, validated by the successful Nordstrom test.

Ashley Owens inquired about the drivers of the Q4 guidance, specifically the balance between average order value (AOV) and order growth, and also asked about the strategy for further wholesale and marketplace expansion beyond the current tests.

Answer

Ciaran Long, Interim CEO and CFO, stated that Q4 guidance assumes a continuation of recent regional growth trends, with a slight increase in AOV and growth primarily driven by order volume. He confirmed the company is pleased with its omnichannel tests, such as Petal & Pup's expansion into 40 Nordstrom stores, and remains open to new channel opportunities for all brands to meet customers wherever they shop.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the evolving capabilities and innovation cycle at Saucony, asking what 'inning' the brand is in. She also asked for expectations on how inventory growth will track relative to sales in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel described being in the 'early innings' of Saucony's potential, citing a reset strategy, a reinvigorated product pipeline, and a new demand creation model as key drivers with significant white space ahead. CFO Taryn Miller noted that the Q2 inventory increase was a strategic choice to support Saucony's demand but did not provide specific back-half inventory guidance.

Ashley Owens inquired about the magnitude and scope of planned price increases to mitigate tariff impacts. She also asked for segment-specific expectations and any guidance on gross margin for the second quarter.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel described the price increases as 'strategic and surgical,' citing mid-single-digit hikes on specific products, which will not fully offset tariff costs. CFO Taryn Miller provided Q2 segment guidance (Active Group high-single-digit growth, Work Group low-single-digit decline) but refrained from giving a specific gross margin outlook due to market volatility.

Ashley Owens inquired about the magnitude and scope of planned price increases to mitigate tariff impacts and how much cost they would offset. She also asked for more detail on the second-quarter outlook by segment and for gross margin.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel described the price increases as 'strategic and surgical,' citing mid-single-digit hikes on specific products, but noted they would not fully offset tariff costs. CFO Taryn Miller reiterated the Q2 segment outlook (Active Group up high-single-digits, Work Group down low-single-digits) but declined to provide specific gross margin guidance due to market volatility, pointing instead to the operating profit and EPS outlook.

Ashley Owens asked for more color on the Q1 operating margin guidance being lower than the prior year, how margins are expected to scale throughout 2025, and for a 'state of the union' on Sweaty Betty, including underperforming categories and innovation plans.

Answer

CFO Taryn Miller attributed the lower Q1 operating margin to reduced operating leverage on what is historically the lowest revenue quarter, expecting sequential improvement as revenue grows. CEO Chris Hufnagel acknowledged Sweaty Betty's softer quarter but emphasized progress on full-year profitability, new marketing campaigns, and the recent addition of a new Chief Product Officer to drive the brand forward.

Ashley Owens asked for clarification on the Work Group's Q4 guidance, questioning if it fully captures demand missed in Q3. She also posed a broader question about Saucony's long-term growth potential and the key drivers for brand awareness in 2025.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel explained the Work Group's Q4 growth guidance is supported by three factors: recovering Q3 shipment delays, an easier prior-year comparison, and pulling forward some Q1 demand. Regarding Saucony, he highlighted its strategic pivot to a broader run consumer, strong innovation pipeline, and brand heat from collaborations, expressing high optimism for its future growth potential.

Ashley Owens asked about the strategy for balancing owned brand price increases with demand elasticity and inquired about the company's current M&A outlook and target acquisition profile.

Answer

Co-Founder & Co-CEO Michael Mente emphasized that owned brands offer a 'luxury proposition at a premium price point,' providing significant value. On M&A, he stated the focus is on acquiring assets that can fill merchandising gaps and be accelerated by leveraging Revolve's scale and expertise to gain a greater share of the customer's wallet.

Ashley Owens requested quantification of the tariff impact within the gross margin guidance and the assumptions for owned brand penetration. She also asked about the merchandising strategy driving higher owned brand sales in physical stores.

Answer

CFO Jesse Timmermans did not quantify the tariff impact but noted that margin improvement is expected to come largely from the FWRD segment, with a 'slight to moderate' increase in owned brand mix for 2025. Co-CEO Michael Mente explained that the higher owned brand mix in stores is not due to optimized merchandising yet; rather, the products are simply 'performing incredibly well' in person, suggesting significant future upside.

Ashley Owens asked how Boot Barn plans to market the pricing differential of its exclusive brands to consumers and whether the company intends to lean into additional marketing for its strong denim business.

Answer

CEO John Hazen stated the company will not run promotional campaigns around pricing but believes customers will notice the value difference online and in-store, especially at key psychological price points. For denim, the focus will be on in-store education with tools like fit guides for associates, rather than a large, dedicated marketing campaign.

Ashley Owens from KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired if the current pricing environment creates an opportunity to expand exclusive brand offerings into new styles or price points to capture more price-sensitive consumers.

Answer

CEO John Hazen responded that while the company is cautious about maintaining quality and not creating an overly entry-level product, the rising prices of third-party brands will inherently make Boot Barn's existing exclusive brands more attractive. He emphasized that the exclusive brand assortment already includes a 'good, better, best' structure, which will become even more price-competitive as market prices increase, rather than needing to introduce entirely new, lower-priced lines.

Ashley Owens asked about the components of the average transaction value (ATV) and a potential decline quarter-to-date, questioning if it was driven by pricing or mix shifts.

Answer

Interim CEO John Hazen clarified that strong comp performance has been primarily driven by transaction growth. He explained that for Q3, units per transaction (UPT) increased while average unit retail (AUR) was flat, and he expects this trend to continue. The Q4 guide reflects seasonality and tougher comps, not a change in transaction value.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about G-III's strategy for implementing price increases, asking which brands and categories possess the most pricing power. She also questioned the financial impact of postponing the Sonya Rykiel brand launch and the company's demand planning approach for the second half of the year amid potential consumer slowdowns.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Morris Goldfarb explained that G-III is collaborating with retailers on targeted price increases, leveraging the strong pricing power of owned brands like Donna Karan and Karl Lagerfeld, which have limited off-price history. He noted the Sonya Rykiel postponement was a strategic decision to avoid losses in an uncertain market. CFO Neal Nackman added that while the order book is slightly slower, they remain cautiously optimistic for the second half, driven by new launches, and are managing inventory prudently.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about G-III's strategy for implementing price increases, asking which brands and categories possess the most pricing power. She also asked about the financial impact of postponing the Sonia Rykiel launch on guidance and the company's approach to demand planning for the second half.

Answer

CEO Morris Goldfarb explained that G-III is working cooperatively with retailers on targeted price increases, leveraging the strong pricing power of owned brands like Donna Karan and Karl Lagerfeld, which have less historical price pressure. He noted the Sonia Rykiel launch was postponed due to production and tariff complexities, a decision made to avoid larger losses. CFO Neal Nackman added that while the order book is slightly slower, they remain cautiously optimistic for the second half due to new launches and are managing inventory prudently.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. inquired about the financial headwinds for the upcoming fiscal year, specifically the impact from the PVH license roll-offs and tariffs on non-outerwear categories. She also asked for color on sales trends in February and early March, and for an update on new opportunities and initiatives related to Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Answer

Executive Neal Nackman quantified the prior year's Calvin Klein business impact at approximately $200 million and detailed the tariff strategy, noting limited Q1 exposure but a larger impact in Q2, which is factored into forecasts. He mentioned price elasticity in outerwear could help mitigate costs. CEO Morris Goldfarb described February retail as 'tough' due to cold weather but stated that early March trends are 'good.' Regarding AI, he explained that G-III is actively evaluating its use across the business, including in design for new launches like Converse, where they can build futuristic systems from a 'blank canvas'.

Ashley Owens inquired about the expected magnitude of gross margin expansion in the fourth quarter, how holiday promotions are comparing to expectations, and the company's confidence in maintaining bottom-line growth ahead of sales growth into next year.

Answer

Executive Neal Nackman stated that the shift toward higher-margin owned brands is the primary driver of gross margin expansion, with moderate freight costs also helping. He noted that holiday promotions have been in line with plans and not excessively aggressive. Chairman and CEO Morris Goldfarb confirmed that retailers are conducting normal seasonal promotions. For next year, Neal Nackman expressed bullishness, citing the continued positive impact of the brand mix shift and the opportunity to leverage the new, higher baseline of marketing investments as sales grow.

An analyst on behalf of Ashley Owens asked for details on the confidence behind the expected Q4 performance step-up and requested information on any outperforming product categories.

Answer

Executive Neal Nackman explained that confidence in Q4 stems from comparing against the prior year's weakest quarter and the continued momentum from new initiatives and owned brands. CEO Morris Goldfarb highlighted the 'outsized growth' of Donna Karan, attributing its success to a powerful marketing campaign and strong retailer reception, which is leading to significant expansion in door counts and floor space.

Chris Brazo, on for Ashley Owens, asked if the uncertainty in the U.S. market would accelerate FIGS's expansion plans in Asia. He also inquired about the potential for opportunistic domestic investments while competitors may be pulling back.

Answer

CEO Trina Spear clarified that the company's plans for Japan and South Korea are proceeding as planned and are not being altered by the current U.S. environment. She reiterated that FIGS is opportunistically investing in its key growth drivers—International, TEAMS, and Community Hubs (retail)—to build an iconic global brand. Spear emphasized the company is doubling down on serving its community and investing in its future, including opening new stores in Houston and two other locations this year.

Ashley Owens asked about the long-term target for the non-scrubs mix and its margin impact, and sought details on the decision to further calibrate the fit initiative and delay its marketing.

Answer

CFO Sarah Oughtred reiterated that the non-scrubwear mix grows about one point annually. CEO Trina Spear explained they are taking more time on the fit initiative to 'get it right' for all customers, pushing the full launch and related marketing to the second half of 2025.

Ashley Owens asked for a broader perspective on the international growth strategy, including key markets and brand-building approaches. She also inquired how the success of the Olympics campaign is shaping future marketing strategies.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Trina Spear highlighted Canada, Australia, and the UK as foundational international markets, with Mexico and the Philippines showing strong recent growth. She identified Asia, particularly Japan, as a key future opportunity. She explained that the Olympics success reinforces the strategy of telling authentic stories about healthcare professionals and product innovation to broaden community connection.

Ashley Owens inquired whether the company is seeing its wholesale partners plan more prudently for the remainder of the year and how that is affecting the order book.

Answer

CEO Andrew Rees confirmed that major retail partners are planning future inventory conservatively, which is reflected in the order book. He stated that the company supports this cautious approach, as it is preferable to forcing excess inventory into the channel, which would be detrimental to long-term brand health.

Ashley Owens of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked if the wholesale channel pressures for Heydude would create additional margin headwinds and how the company is balancing tighter inventory buys with the need to maintain product newness and collaborations.

Answer

CEO Andrew Rees confirmed the wholesale inventory cleanup is a significant, costly investment that will pressure margins in the second half. He explained the goal of this action is to refresh sales floors with current, new products, which are performing well. Therefore, the pullback on receipts is about cautious demand planning, not reducing the cadence of new product introductions, which remain a priority.

Ashley Owens inquired about the assumptions underlying the full-year EPS guidance, the expected quarterly progression, and the potential timeline to return to a $4 EPS threshold. She also asked for insights into the resilience of the higher-priced contemporary brand segment.

Answer

CFO Jack Calandra explained that the guidance assumes sequential quarterly improvement driven by new product introductions at Famous Footwear and several growth initiatives in the Brand Portfolio, including lapping a prior year's SAP upgrade challenge, international growth, and the launch of Favorite Daughter. CEO John Schmidt added that the contemporary segment is benefiting from a consumer shift away from weaker designer brands and strong performance in fashion-forward categories.