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    Bastian Synagowitz

    Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank AG

    Bastian Synagowitz is Director and Head of European Steel Equity Research at Deutsche Bank AG, based in Zurich and London, specializing in analysis of the European steel sector with a focus on major companies such as ArcelorMittal and thyssenkrupp. Demonstrating strong analytical performance, Synagowitz has maintained a recent success rate of over 70% on published stock ratings, with an average return of approximately 6.6% on tracked investment ideas, as reflected in independent platform rankings. He began his career with Deutsche Bank in 2004, progressing through various research and analyst roles in Frankfurt, London, and Zurich, and has previously gained experience in audit at Ernst & Young and project management at Homburg & Partner. Synagowitz holds academic credentials from Universität Mannheim and Tecnológico de Monterrey, and is recognized as a key sell-side analyst for European steel equities.

    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to ArcelorMittal (MT) leadership

    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to ArcelorMittal (MT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Bastian Synagowitz asked about recent project delays and the strategy for the company's Brazilian slab capacity, given the increasing self-sufficiency of the U.S. market.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Genuino Christino clarified that the project delays in France and Mexico were minor and did not significantly impact the overall EBITDA growth outlook. Regarding Brazil, he explained that the assets are well-positioned to serve growing domestic demand and that their high-quality slabs will always be marketable globally.

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    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to ArcelorMittal (MT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Bastian Synagowitz of Deutsche Bank asked about the reasons for recent project delays, the potential for further shifts, and the long-term strategy for the company's Brazilian slab capacity in light of growing U.S. production.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Genuino Christino explained that minor project delays in France and Mexico were due to permitting and site-specific issues and do not significantly alter the company's growth pipeline. He stated that for its Brazilian slab assets, the focus is on serving Brazil's growing domestic market and leveraging the high quality of the slabs for the global export market, ensuring their continued value.

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    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to ArcelorMittal (MT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Bastian Synagowitz of Deutsche Bank asked about the Calvert EAF startup, seeking a production target for the year and details on slab supply from Brazil, including where tariff costs are booked. He also inquired about the ramp-up timeline for the new EAF.

    Answer

    Group CFO Genuino Christino explained that the EAF commissioning is underway and timely given the trade environment. He expects a full 12-month ramp-up to reach full run rate, with the first slab anticipated by the end of Q2. He clarified that tariff costs for slabs imported from Brazil will be booked at the Calvert level, not in the Brazilian segment, and that higher U.S. prices will more than offset this cost.

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    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to ArcelorMittal (MT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Bastian Synagowitz asked about the drivers behind Europe's resilient margins despite falling spreads and questioned if the company was considering further footprint changes like restructuring or M&A.

    Answer

    CFO Genuino Christino attributed the strong European performance to excellent cost control, improved production, and better fixed cost management. CEO Aditya Mittal added that future footprint actions in Europe depend on policy outcomes. If supportive action is taken on trade, energy, and CBAM, major restructuring will be limited. If not, the company will act to restore competitiveness as it has in the past.

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    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to ArcelorMittal (MT) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Bastian Synagowitz asked for an early indication of decarbonization-related CapEx for 2025, questioning whether it would see a significant step-up to a range of $0.5 billion to over $1 billion as project pace accelerates.

    Answer

    Executive Daniel Fairclough responded that the current focus remains on engineering studies and securing government support for decarbonization projects. He stated that he does not expect a material step-up in decarbonization CapEx in 2025 compared to the current year's level of $300-$400 million, which is primarily for these studies.

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    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to OUTOKUMPU OY /FI (OUTKY) leadership

    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to OUTOKUMPU OY /FI (OUTKY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Bastian Synagowitz asked about the financial impact of the new hot rolling agreement in the Americas, whether Americas supply was used to honor European commitments, the outlook for the Americas division to reach its $170 million midterm EBITDA target, and details on the CapEx budget, including the CRONIMET investment and the full-year free cash flow outlook.

    Answer

    CFO Pia Aaltonen-Forsell stated that Americas supply was not used for European customers and that the impact of the new hot rolling agreement is reflected in the revised sustainable EBITDA target of $170 million, down from $200 million. She noted that reaching this run rate depends on macro factors and market recovery. She clarified that the CRONIMET investment is included within the guided EUR 220 million CapEx for the year. Regarding cash flow, she expects a modest working capital investment in H2 and stated that achieving positive free cash flow for the year is possible but depends heavily on market recovery.

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    Bastian Synagowitz's questions to OUTOKUMPU OY /FI (OUTKY) leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Asked about the maintenance schedule for the remainder of 2024 and the CapEx outlook, specifically if the budget could increase from the EUR 200 million level before 2025.

    Answer

    The company indicated that some maintenance is likely in Q3 or Q4 2024 but will provide guidance later. They confirmed their commitment to the EUR 200 million CapEx budget for 2024. Any more significant investment decisions are pending the assessment of the U.S. cold rolling opportunity, which is expected within a year.

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