Ben Theurer

Ben Theurer inquired about the current market tightness in 2026, comparing it to 2025, and the drivers for increased EBITDA generation, including tax credits, despite the Yazoo City suspension.

Answer

Bert Frost, SVP of Sales and Market Development, CF Industries, attributed 2025's unexpected tightness to Middle East conflicts, high demand from India and Brazil, European production difficulties, and strong North American corn acres. He expects these positive dynamics to continue into 2026, with strong demand and limited supply. Chris Bohn, President and CEO, CF Industries, added that the full-year operation of the carbon capture unit at Donaldsonville is expected to sequester approximately 1.5 million tons in 2026, contributing to tax credits.

Ben Theurer sought commentary on the current market tightness, noting that 2025 was tighter than expected, and asked about the drivers for EBITDA generation in 2026, including tax credits, considering the $200 million EBITDA impact from the Yazoo City suspension.

Answer

Bert Frost, SVP of Sales and Market Development, explained that 2025's unexpected tightness was driven by global factors like Middle East conflict, high demand in India and Brazil, European production difficulties, and high U.S. corn acres. He expects these dynamics to continue into 2026, with strong demand and limited supply, citing current NOLA urea pricing. Chris Bohn, President and CEO, added that the market is bridging to an even tighter period, and for 2026, they expect to sequester just under 1.5 million tons of CO2 at Donaldsonville, generating tax credits.

Ben Theurer followed up on capital allocation, specifically the share buyback authorization of up to 5% for 2026, asking about the internal thought process behind prioritizing buybacks versus dividends, especially given the current stock price.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, confirmed the board renewed the NCIB at 5% and expects a buyback rate of approximately $50 million per month in 2026, consistent with 2025. Mark Thompson, CFO, added that the capital allocation approach for 2026 is consistent with 2025, including $2-$2.1 billion in CapEx (roughly $1.65 billion sustaining, $400 million growth), $500 million in capital leases, and keeping dividend expense stable at about $1 billion. He highlighted the strong balance sheet, with over $600 million in debt paid down in 2025, supporting these priorities.

Ben Theurer followed up on Nutrien's capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding the share buyback program, noting the authorization for up to 5% this year compared to 5% over the last two years. He inquired about the internal alternatives considered, such as increasing the dividend, and the thought processes behind these decisions, particularly in light of the current stock price.

Answer

Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO, confirmed the renewal of the NCIB at 5% and stated that while the dividend strategy remains "stable and growing," share buybacks have allowed for a reduction in total dividend expense. Mark Thompson, Nutrien's CFO, elaborated that the 2026 capital allocation strategy will be consistent with 2025, including CapEx of $2-$2.1 billion (comprising $1.65 billion sustaining and $400 million growth), and consistent capital leases of $500 million. He noted that dividend expense would remain stable at approximately $1 billion. For share repurchases, Thompson clarified that the 5% authorization allows market presence, with about 2% of stock repurchased last year and a current run rate of $50 million per month, which is expected to continue. He emphasized that these priorities are supported by a strong balance sheet, strengthened by over $600 million in debt reduction in 2025.

Ben Theurer asked about Nutrien's perpetual portfolio review, specifically if any other assets beyond phosphate and Trinidad are being considered for divestiture or adjustment given current market conditions.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, confirmed that Nutrien will perpetually review its portfolio to improve earnings quality and free cash flow per share. He reiterated that the current focus is on phosphate, Trinidad, and Brazil. While there might be other smaller assets for 'cleaning up' the portfolio, nothing beyond these three areas is considered material at the moment.

Ben Theurer asked about Nutrien's perpetual portfolio review, inquiring if there are any other assets beyond phosphate and Trinidad that the company would consider for divestiture or adjustment, given current market conditions and different locations.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, confirmed that Nutrien perpetually reviews its portfolio to improve earnings quality and free cash flow per share. He reiterated that the current primary focus is on phosphate, Trinidad, and the Brazil improvement plan. While there might be smaller assets for 'cleaning up' in the portfolio (e.g., in Europe and Latin America), he stated that nothing beyond the three main areas is considered *material* at this time.

Ben Theurer from Barclays asked for more details on the assumptions underpinning CEMEX's high single-digit EBITDA growth guidance for 2026, including potential upside and downside risks.

Answer

CEO Jaime Muguiro indicated more upside than downside risks, primarily due to potential FX effects. He explained that for every peso of appreciation, EBITDA could increase by $75 million-$80 million, based on their FX estimate of 18.25-18.50 pesos per dollar. Muguiro also mentioned ongoing efforts to firm up new recurring savings as part of their operational excellence transformation.

Ben Theurer inquired about the underlying assumptions for CEMEX's high single-digit EBITDA growth guidance for 2026, considering low single-digit volume and pricing growth, and the potential upside and downside risks within this framework.

Answer

CEO Jaime Muguiro indicated more upside than downside risks, primarily due to potential stronger FX (peso appreciation could add $75M-$80M EBITDA per peso) and ongoing efforts to firm up new recurring savings from operational excellence.

Ben Theurer requested a deeper dive into Cemex's U.S. volume performance, focusing on regional differences and subcategory trends across residential, industrial/commercial, and infrastructure sectors.

Answer

CEO Jaime Muguiro noted weaker Q3 volumes in Florida, California, and Arizona, partially offset by growth in Texas, Colorado, and the Mid-South. He anticipates continued strong infrastructure demand into 2026, with industrial/commercial remaining robust (data centers, chip factories). Single-family residential is expected to stabilize but remain weak in 2026, with recovery projected for 2027. Overall, he forecasts low single-digit U.S. demand growth next year.

Ben Theurer asked about the current conditions and opportunities in the grain handling and merchandising business for 2026, given the combined Bunge-Viterra footprint, and what level of disruption or activity is needed to maximize its potential. He also inquired about the expected returns and timing of those returns for the significant growth investments, particularly the $1 billion-plus in CapEx last year and similar levels projected for 2026.

Answer

CEO Greg Heckman highlighted that with six months of combined operations, the focus is on optimizing the seasonal business, leveraging geographical balance, and achieving the best cost position. He noted benefits from combined ocean freight and adapting to trade disruptions. CFO John Neppl added that while crush integrated quickly, merchandising, with more people and assets, will take longer to optimize, but expects better year-over-year improvement in 2026, especially in the first half. Regarding CapEx, CFO John Neppl explained that mega project spend will drop by $350 million in 2026, with most projects wrapping up by year-end. He stated that significant contributions from these projects (Morristown, Destrehan, Westzaan) are not expected in 2026 but rather in 2027. He also mentioned earmarking a few hundred million for other growth projects in 2026, which may or may not be approved.

Ben Theurer asked for an outlook on the grain handling and merchandising business for 2026, considering the Viterra integration and the level of disruption or activity needed to maximize the larger footprint. He also inquired about the 2026 CapEx guidance of $1.5-$1.7 billion, specifically the breakdown between growth and sustaining investments, expected returns, and the timing of those returns from mega projects.

Answer

CEO Greg Heckman discussed the six months of combined operations, focusing on base load business, adjusting to disruptions, and benefits from the combined ocean freight platform. CFO John Neppl noted an expected year-over-year improvement in the segment, especially in the first half, but acknowledged more work is needed for the merchandising side. For CapEx, John Neppl stated that mega project spend will drop by about $350 million in 2026, with most projects wrapping up by year-end. He clarified that Morristown, Destrehan, and Westzaan projects are not expected to contribute meaningfully in 2026, with returns anticipated more in 2027.

Ben Theurer of Stephens Inc inquired about the 2026 outlook for the Nutrition segment, specifically regarding the recovery of Decatur East, customer re-engagement, and the bull/bear cases for demand and fulfillment.

Answer

Chair and CEO Juan Luciano clarified that excluding insurance proceeds, Q4 2025 Nutrition performance was strong in Flavors and Biotics, with Europe demand recovering and Decatur East stabilizing. EVP and CFO Monish Patolawala added that the Alltech JV would impact revenue but not significantly 2026 profit.

Ben Theurer of Barclays asked for an update on the Nutrition segment's outlook for 2026, specifically regarding the recovery of the Decatur East plant, efforts to regain lost customers, and the bull and bear cases for demand and fulfillment from ADM's side.

Answer

Chair and CEO Juan Luciano clarified that excluding insurance proceeds, Nutrition's Q4 2025 operating performance was strong, particularly in Flavors and Biotics. He acknowledged the ongoing process of plant stabilization and customer recovery for Decatur East, which will take time. Executive Vice President and CFO Monish Patolawala added a tactical note about the Alltech joint venture's impact on revenue but not profit for 2026.

Ben Theurer asked about the sequential decline in crush operating profit in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 and Q1, seeking clarification on factors like locked-in bookings and the sequential outlook for crush into Q4 given biofuel policy uncertainty. He also inquired about insurance numbers.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO, ADM, explained that soybean crush margins rallied post-RVO announcements but subsequently moved lower due to decreased U.S. acres, China trade deal chatter, and biofuel policy uncertainty (SREs, government shutdown, Argentina tax holiday). He expects Q4 crush to remain in the current range, with about 80% booked, and expressed optimism for 2026 pending RVO finalization and the China trade deal. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, ADM, clarified that Q4 2025 insurance proceeds are expected to be $35 million (half from captive, half from third parties), significantly down from $135 million in Q4 2024 (mostly third-party funded).

Ben Theurner asked about the sequential decline in crush segment performance for the third quarter compared to the first and second quarters, seeking clarification on how much was pre-booked and the sequential outlook for crush into the fourth quarter, especially given biofuel policy uncertainty. He also requested a quick follow-up on insurance numbers.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of ADM, explained that soybean crush rallied post-RVO announcements but then declined due to factors like decreased U.S. acres, China trade deal chatter, biofuel policy uncertainty (SREs, government shutdown delays), and Argentina's tax holiday. He noted that Q4 crush is expected to remain in the current range, with about 80% of the quarter already booked, and expressed optimism for 2026 with RVO finalization and a potential China trade deal. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, clarified that Q4 2025 insurance proceeds are expected to be approximately $35 million (half from captive, half from third parties), significantly down from $135 million in Q4 2024 (mostly third-party funded).

Ben Theurer followed up on Prepared Foods, inquiring about the strong pricing increase versus flat volumes, persistent profit margin pressure, the stage of price increases relative to input cost inflation (especially beef), and the magnitude of future price increases needed for stable profit margins.

Answer

CEO Donnie King stated that the 8% sales increase in Prepared Foods was a combination of channel mix and formula-based pass-through pricing, not pure price. He noted that commodity costs were up $100 million in the quarter, but pricing was catching up, predominantly in food service. He also highlighted market share gains in volume, dollars, and unit share for Prepared Foods.

Ben Theurer asked about the rationale behind Tyson Foods' change in segment reporting from Adjusted Operating Income to Segment Operating Income, its connection to management incentives, and how this relates to the revised free cash flow outlook, specifically regarding working capital.

Answer

President and CEO Donnie King explained the intentional change was to empower business leaders to grow volume and increase household penetration by removing corporate overhead as a perceived barrier, fostering an ROIC mentality. CFO Curt Calaway added that this change is part of a multi-year journey focusing on dollar contribution and internal ROIC metrics, clarifying that while total adjusted operating income, sales growth, CapEx, and tax rate remain unchanged, free cash flow improved due to working capital performance and reduced interest expense. Ben Theurer then followed up on Prepared Foods' strong pricing, flattish volumes, and profit margin pressure, asking about the need for further price increases. Donnie King responded that the 8% sales increase was a combination of channel mix and formula-based pass-through pricing, not pure price, with pricing catching up to $100 million in commodity cost increases. He highlighted that the business grew market share in volume, dollars, and units for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Ben Theurer asked for an update on the Planters brand's recovery, specifically regarding shelf space, profitability, and the expected cadence for fiscal 2026, and also questioned the strategic fit of the Brazil venture given ongoing portfolio reviews.

Answer

President John Ghingo reported Planters is back in growth mode with double-digit consumption growth and near-complete distribution recovery, though profit recovery is hampered by mix shifts from cashew inflation. He confirmed the Brazil venture has been a drag and the entire portfolio remains under review for strategic alignment.

Ben Theurer from Barclays inquired about the recovery trajectory of the Planters brand, specifically its progress in regaining shelf space and improving profitability following past disruptions, and how this will cadence into fiscal 2026. He also asked about the future strategic role of the Brazil venture within the international business, given its past challenges and Hormel Foods' ongoing portfolio review, questioning if it might be considered for sale to streamline the international segment.

Answer

President John Ghingo reported that Planters is fully back in growth mode, with recent 13-week consumption data showing 12% dollar and 6% volume growth, driven by distribution recovery (up 13%) which is nearly complete. He noted that profit recovery has been hampered by mix shifts due to consumers trading out of cashews, but the company plans to adjust go-to-market plans and will lap cashew pricing in Q2 2026. Regarding Brazil, John Ghingo stated that while the China business and branded exports are performing well, Brazil has been a drag, and the company continues to review its total portfolio to streamline and focus on nourishing protein solutions.

Ben Theurer asked about the U.S. beef market, specifically the rebuild of the herd, expectations for 2026 regarding supply challenges and heifer retention, and how this compares to 2025. He also inquired about the timing for reducing inventory built up in cold storage due to product not shipped to China, related to working capital.

Answer

Wesley Batista Filho (CEO, JBS USA) confirmed heifer retention is occurring, citing significantly lower cow kill numbers in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2022, and expects 2026 to remain challenging for supply, with gradual improvement from 2027. He clarified that the pork working capital issue related to China tariffs was a short-term Q2 2025 event and all inventory was cleared. Gilberto Tomazoni (Global CEO, JBS) added that Seara's inventory is normal, not impacted by avian flu.

Ben Theurer asked for an update on the U.S. beef herd rebuild, the outlook for 2026, and potential challenges from a tighter market. He also sought clarification on the timing and expected reduction of inventory built up in cold storage due to product not shipped to China, as discussed in the previous quarter.

Answer

Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS USA, confirmed heifer retention is occurring, with cow kill almost half of what it was a few years ago. He expects 2026 to remain challenging for U.S. beef supply, with gradual improvement from 2027 onwards. Regarding working capital, he clarified that the pork inventory issue related to China tariffs was a short-term Q2 2025 event and was cleared, not carrying into Q3. Gilberto Tomazoni added that SEARA's inventory is normal and not impacted by avian flu.

Ben Theurer, Managing Director at Barclays, asked about the packaged meats segment's pricing initiatives and mix effect, given the 9% pricing increase with flat volume. He sought insight into the sustainability of current price levels into Q4 and Q1 next year, and how they might react to commodity market fluctuations. Theurer also sought clarification on the lowered capital expenditure guidance for the year, asking if it represented a delay in projects or a re-evaluation of investment plans.

Answer

Steve France, President of Packaged Meats, explained that formula pricing for private label (40% of retail mix) and strong brand loyalty enable margin maintenance and passing on higher raw material costs. He emphasized selective promotions focused on quality over quantity, aiming to attract new consumers and increase consumption rather than short-term volume spikes from heavy discounting. Operational efficiencies also help mitigate costs. Mark Hall, CFO, clarified that the lower CapEx guidance is primarily due to the timing of some projects shifting into early 2026, rather than a re-evaluation. He affirmed the company's commitment to prudent cash stewardship and investing in growth and cost structure improvements.

Ben Theurer with Barclays asked about the pricing initiatives and mix effects within the packaged meats portfolio (brand vs. private label), given the 9% pricing increase with flat volume, and whether these price levels are sustainable into Q4 and Q1 2026 if commodity markets decline. He also sought clarification on the lowered CapEx guidance for the year, specifically if it's a delay or a review of projects.

Answer

Shane Smith, President and CEO, and Steve France, President of Packaged Meats, explained that formula pricing for private label and strong brand loyalty enable them to maintain margins and pass on higher raw material costs, complemented by operational efficiencies. They emphasized selective, quality-focused promotions to drive volume and brand loyalty, rather than sporadic discounting. Mark Hall, CFO, clarified that the lowered CapEx guidance is primarily due to the timing of projects shifting into early 2026, driven by factors like plant downtime availability, rather than a fundamental review or reduction in investment opportunities.

An analyst on behalf of Ben Theurer from Barclays asked how a potential consumer trade-down would affect Ingredion's sales mix and margins. He also inquired if the company might exceed its $100 million share repurchase target for the year.

Answer

CEO Jim Zallie explained that consumer trade-downs have a limited impact on Ingredion's mix, as the company supplies ingredients to both branded and private label manufacturers. He highlighted that demand for higher-margin clean label solutions remains strong. CFO Jim Gray confirmed the company is currently comfortable with its $100 million share repurchase target but continuously evaluates it as part of its total shareholder return strategy.

Asked about the current state of farmer profitability, changes in farmer purchasing behavior, and the impact of a competitor's bankruptcy on supplier relationships and credit availability.

Answer

Farmer profitability is improving based on the exchange ratio of grains to inputs, which has become more favorable. Farmers are still delaying purchases but are showing growing concern about input availability, which is accelerating demand. The credit environment has been conservative for some time due to last year's harvest, a situation that predates the competitor's bankruptcy, and is expected to improve as farmer liquidity recovers.

Ben Theurer of Barclays asked for clarification on the upside and downside scenarios within ICL's reaffirmed full-year guidance range, seeking to understand the key risks and opportunities management is currently monitoring.

Answer

President and CEO Raviv Zoller identified the primary variables influencing the guidance range. The main risk factor is the uncertainty around potash prices in China and Asia for the second half of the year, as a price has not yet been settled. Another variable is the precise timing of the expected recovery in the specialties businesses later in the year. CFO Aviram Lahav noted that a key opportunity providing comfort is the strong performance of the Phosphate Specialties business, which is tracking ahead of its original budget for the year.

Ben Theurer of Barclays inquired about the demand drivers and contracting outlook for 2023 across ICL's segments. He also asked a long-term strategic question about whether organic growth alone is sufficient to meet the company's 2027 targets or if M&A will be necessary.

Answer

President and CEO Raviv Zoller highlighted robust potash demand from Brazil and noted the company is sold out for Q1. On long-term strategy, he stated that while organic growth is key, M&A will account for approximately 30% of revenue growth in Growing Solutions and 15% in Phosphate Specialties to hit 2027 targets. CFO Aviram Lahav added that improved farmer affordability should drive robust fertilizer quantity demand in 2023 and that M&A could also be used to expand into new geographies.