Ben Theurer

Ben Theurer asked for an update on the U.S. beef herd rebuild, the outlook for 2026, and potential challenges from a tighter market. He also sought clarification on the timing and expected reduction of inventory built up in cold storage due to product not shipped to China, as discussed in the previous quarter.

Answer

Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS USA, confirmed heifer retention is occurring, with cow kill almost half of what it was a few years ago. He expects 2026 to remain challenging for U.S. beef supply, with gradual improvement from 2027 onwards. Regarding working capital, he clarified that the pork inventory issue related to China tariffs was a short-term Q2 2025 event and was cleared, not carrying into Q3. Gilberto Tomazoni added that SEARA's inventory is normal and not impacted by avian flu.

Ben Theurer asked about the U.S. beef market, specifically the rebuild of the herd, expectations for 2026 regarding supply challenges and heifer retention, and how this compares to 2025. He also inquired about the timing for reducing inventory built up in cold storage due to product not shipped to China, related to working capital.

Answer

Wesley Batista Filho (CEO, JBS USA) confirmed heifer retention is occurring, citing significantly lower cow kill numbers in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2022, and expects 2026 to remain challenging for supply, with gradual improvement from 2027. He clarified that the pork working capital issue related to China tariffs was a short-term Q2 2025 event and all inventory was cleared. Gilberto Tomazoni (Global CEO, JBS) added that Seara's inventory is normal, not impacted by avian flu.

Ben Theurer asked about Nutrien's perpetual portfolio review, inquiring if there are any other assets beyond phosphate and Trinidad that the company would consider for divestiture or adjustment, given current market conditions and different locations.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, confirmed that Nutrien perpetually reviews its portfolio to improve earnings quality and free cash flow per share. He reiterated that the current primary focus is on phosphate, Trinidad, and the Brazil improvement plan. While there might be smaller assets for 'cleaning up' in the portfolio (e.g., in Europe and Latin America), he stated that nothing beyond the three main areas is considered *material* at this time.

Ben Theurer asked about Nutrien's perpetual portfolio review, specifically if any other assets beyond phosphate and Trinidad are being considered for divestiture or adjustment given current market conditions.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, confirmed that Nutrien will perpetually review its portfolio to improve earnings quality and free cash flow per share. He reiterated that the current focus is on phosphate, Trinidad, and Brazil. While there might be other smaller assets for 'cleaning up' the portfolio, nothing beyond these three areas is considered material at the moment.

Ben Theurner asked about the sequential decline in crush segment performance for the third quarter compared to the first and second quarters, seeking clarification on how much was pre-booked and the sequential outlook for crush into the fourth quarter, especially given biofuel policy uncertainty. He also requested a quick follow-up on insurance numbers.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of ADM, explained that soybean crush rallied post-RVO announcements but then declined due to factors like decreased U.S. acres, China trade deal chatter, biofuel policy uncertainty (SREs, government shutdown delays), and Argentina's tax holiday. He noted that Q4 crush is expected to remain in the current range, with about 80% of the quarter already booked, and expressed optimism for 2026 with RVO finalization and a potential China trade deal. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, clarified that Q4 2025 insurance proceeds are expected to be approximately $35 million (half from captive, half from third parties), significantly down from $135 million in Q4 2024 (mostly third-party funded).

Ben Theurer asked about the sequential decline in crush operating profit in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 and Q1, seeking clarification on factors like locked-in bookings and the sequential outlook for crush into Q4 given biofuel policy uncertainty. He also inquired about insurance numbers.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO, ADM, explained that soybean crush margins rallied post-RVO announcements but subsequently moved lower due to decreased U.S. acres, China trade deal chatter, and biofuel policy uncertainty (SREs, government shutdown, Argentina tax holiday). He expects Q4 crush to remain in the current range, with about 80% booked, and expressed optimism for 2026 pending RVO finalization and the China trade deal. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, ADM, clarified that Q4 2025 insurance proceeds are expected to be $35 million (half from captive, half from third parties), significantly down from $135 million in Q4 2024 (mostly third-party funded).

Ben Theurer requested a deeper dive into Cemex's U.S. volume performance, focusing on regional differences and subcategory trends across residential, industrial/commercial, and infrastructure sectors.

Answer

CEO Jaime Muguiro noted weaker Q3 volumes in Florida, California, and Arizona, partially offset by growth in Texas, Colorado, and the Mid-South. He anticipates continued strong infrastructure demand into 2026, with industrial/commercial remaining robust (data centers, chip factories). Single-family residential is expected to stabilize but remain weak in 2026, with recovery projected for 2027. Overall, he forecasts low single-digit U.S. demand growth next year.

Ben Theurer with Barclays asked about the pricing initiatives and mix effects within the packaged meats portfolio (brand vs. private label), given the 9% pricing increase with flat volume, and whether these price levels are sustainable into Q4 and Q1 2026 if commodity markets decline. He also sought clarification on the lowered CapEx guidance for the year, specifically if it's a delay or a review of projects.

Answer

Shane Smith, President and CEO, and Steve France, President of Packaged Meats, explained that formula pricing for private label and strong brand loyalty enable them to maintain margins and pass on higher raw material costs, complemented by operational efficiencies. They emphasized selective, quality-focused promotions to drive volume and brand loyalty, rather than sporadic discounting. Mark Hall, CFO, clarified that the lowered CapEx guidance is primarily due to the timing of projects shifting into early 2026, driven by factors like plant downtime availability, rather than a fundamental review or reduction in investment opportunities.

Ben Theurer, Managing Director at Barclays, asked about the packaged meats segment's pricing initiatives and mix effect, given the 9% pricing increase with flat volume. He sought insight into the sustainability of current price levels into Q4 and Q1 next year, and how they might react to commodity market fluctuations. Theurer also sought clarification on the lowered capital expenditure guidance for the year, asking if it represented a delay in projects or a re-evaluation of investment plans.

Answer

Steve France, President of Packaged Meats, explained that formula pricing for private label (40% of retail mix) and strong brand loyalty enable margin maintenance and passing on higher raw material costs. He emphasized selective promotions focused on quality over quantity, aiming to attract new consumers and increase consumption rather than short-term volume spikes from heavy discounting. Operational efficiencies also help mitigate costs. Mark Hall, CFO, clarified that the lower CapEx guidance is primarily due to the timing of some projects shifting into early 2026, rather than a re-evaluation. He affirmed the company's commitment to prudent cash stewardship and investing in growth and cost structure improvements.

An analyst on behalf of Ben Theurer from Barclays asked how a potential consumer trade-down would affect Ingredion's sales mix and margins. He also inquired if the company might exceed its $100 million share repurchase target for the year.

Answer

CEO Jim Zallie explained that consumer trade-downs have a limited impact on Ingredion's mix, as the company supplies ingredients to both branded and private label manufacturers. He highlighted that demand for higher-margin clean label solutions remains strong. CFO Jim Gray confirmed the company is currently comfortable with its $100 million share repurchase target but continuously evaluates it as part of its total shareholder return strategy.

Asked about the current state of farmer profitability, changes in farmer purchasing behavior, and the impact of a competitor's bankruptcy on supplier relationships and credit availability.

Answer

Farmer profitability is improving based on the exchange ratio of grains to inputs, which has become more favorable. Farmers are still delaying purchases but are showing growing concern about input availability, which is accelerating demand. The credit environment has been conservative for some time due to last year's harvest, a situation that predates the competitor's bankruptcy, and is expected to improve as farmer liquidity recovers.

Ben Theurer of Barclays asked for clarification on the upside and downside scenarios within ICL's reaffirmed full-year guidance range, seeking to understand the key risks and opportunities management is currently monitoring.

Answer

President and CEO Raviv Zoller identified the primary variables influencing the guidance range. The main risk factor is the uncertainty around potash prices in China and Asia for the second half of the year, as a price has not yet been settled. Another variable is the precise timing of the expected recovery in the specialties businesses later in the year. CFO Aviram Lahav noted that a key opportunity providing comfort is the strong performance of the Phosphate Specialties business, which is tracking ahead of its original budget for the year.

Ben Theurer of Barclays inquired about the demand drivers and contracting outlook for 2023 across ICL's segments. He also asked a long-term strategic question about whether organic growth alone is sufficient to meet the company's 2027 targets or if M&A will be necessary.

Answer

President and CEO Raviv Zoller highlighted robust potash demand from Brazil and noted the company is sold out for Q1. On long-term strategy, he stated that while organic growth is key, M&A will account for approximately 30% of revenue growth in Growing Solutions and 15% in Phosphate Specialties to hit 2027 targets. CFO Aviram Lahav added that improved farmer affordability should drive robust fertilizer quantity demand in 2023 and that M&A could also be used to expand into new geographies.