Benjamin Toms

Benjamin Toms, Senior Equity Analyst at RBC, asked for clarification on the structural hedge model, specifically if the £35 billion annual maturity assumption for this year should be maintained for next year, considering additions in 2021-2022. He also sought an update on the strategic thoughts regarding the workplace pension solutions business, Cushion, acquired in 2023, including its strengths and weaknesses.

Answer

CFO Katie Murray advised maintaining the £35 billion annual maturity assumption for the structural hedge for modeling purposes, noting its mechanistic nature and even distribution. CEO Paul Thwaite described Cushion as a good business with strong technology and proposition, proving attractive to commercial mid-market customers for workplace pensions, and highlighted its importance given regulatory changes around master trusts.

Benjamin Toms of RBC asked about the structural hedge, questioning if the GBP 170 billion year-end notional target remains valid given recent deposit growth. He also sought clarification on the drivers behind management's confidence that the cost run-rate will decrease from the Q1 level.

Answer

CFO Katie Murray confirmed the GBP 170 billion structural hedge notional target for year-end 2024 is still a good number to work with, noting the hedge income is expected to grow into 2025 and 2026. Executive Paul Thwaite explained that Q1 costs were front-loaded with restructuring and property exit charges, which are typically weighted to the first half, reiterating the full-year guidance for broadly stable costs.

Benjamin Toms from RBC Capital Markets asked about the impact of using current forward FX rates on the bank's strategic objectives for RoTE and capital distribution, and requested more details on the 40-50 basis point capital benefit from model simplification, including regulatory approval status.

Answer

CEO Onur Genç clarified that the plan uses forward FX rates for most countries, with specific depreciation assumptions for Turkey and Argentina detailed in the appendix. He confirmed the 40-50 bps capital benefit has received formal, written approval from the ECB and stems from simplifying models for Mexico credit cards and wholesale portfolios in Spain and Mexico.

Benjamin Toms of RBC inquired about the resilience of the bank's high-teens ROTE guidance, asking what level of financial stress would be required to miss that target. He also requested the latest expected capital impact from the Sabadell transaction and a confirmation that the bank's capital target range will not be increased.

Answer

CEO Onur Genç reaffirmed the bank's commitment to its mid-teens tangible book value per share plus dividends growth target. Regarding capital, he stated the latest public figure for the Sabadell deal's CET1 impact is 51 basis points. He firmly stated 'no' to increasing the capital target range, arguing BBVA's buffer over regulatory requirements (287 bps) is already significantly higher than its European peer average (219 bps).

Benjamin Toms from RBC asked about the resilience of the bank's high-teens ROTE guidance amid global trade volatility. He also inquired about the capital target range and requested the latest expected capital impact from the Sabadell transaction.

Answer

CEO Onur Genç stated that the bank sticks with its mid-teens tangible book value per share plus dividends growth guidance, noting the strong 14% growth this quarter despite currency headwinds. Regarding the Sabadell deal, he cited the latest public disclosure of a 51 basis point CET1 impact for a 100% takeover. He confirmed there is no intention to increase the 11.5%-12% capital target range, highlighting that BBVA's buffer over regulatory requirements is already higher than its European peer average.

Benjamin Toms from RBC Capital Markets questioned why BBVA is maintaining a CET1 ratio of 12.88%, significantly above its 12% target, and asked about the intended use for this EUR 2 billion in excess capital.

Answer

Executive Onur Genç explained that BBVA prioritizes profitable growth and shareholder distributions. He noted that the Spanish market authority (CNMV) recently lifted restrictions on share buybacks, allowing the company to launch a new EUR 993 million program. Genç reiterated the commitment to eventually return to the 12% CET1 target, stating the excess capital belongs to shareholders and will be distributed in due time through measures like future buybacks.

Benjamin Toms of RBC Capital Markets asked for more detail on the HIBOR normalization assumptions within the $42 billion banking NII guidance and questioned if the cost of risk would likely remain in the upper half of its 30-40 bps range into FY 2026.

Answer

Group CFO Pam Kaur explained the NII guidance includes market expectations of HIBOR rising above 2% in Q3 and noted that while a 1% HIBOR costs $100 million per month, other factors like a weaker dollar are tailwinds. On Expected Credit Losses (ECLs), she confirmed they have been in the 30-40 bps range for a few years but declined to provide guidance beyond 2025.

Benjamin Toms of RBC Capital Markets inquired about the assumptions underlying HSBC's £42 billion banking Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, specifically the expected timeline for HIBOR normalization. He also asked if it's reasonable to assume the cost of risk will remain in the upper half of the 30-40 basis point guidance range into fiscal year 2026.

Answer

Group CFO Pam Kaur explained that the NII guidance incorporates market expectations for HIBOR to rise above 2% in Q3 and noted that a 1% HIBOR level impacts NII by $100 million per month. She stated that while HSBC has operated in the 30-40 basis point ECL range for several years, the bank is only providing guidance for 2025 at this time and would not comment on 2026.

Benjamin Toms asked about the strategic review of Malta, the potential for cost savings to exceed the current $1.5 billion target, and the sustainability of strong Q1 fee income, particularly the portion driven by market volatility.

Answer

Georges Elhedery, an executive, stated that the primary focus is delivering the committed $1.5 billion in simplification cost saves and $1.5 billion in strategic reallocations, not seeking further savings at this time. Manveen Kaur, an executive, added that while volatility boosted FX and markets revenue, the underlying growth in the Wealth franchise is structural and expected to persist, and Wholesale Transaction Banking remains a competitive advantage, though its performance may vary quarterly.

Benjamin Toms from RBC Capital Markets asked about the structural hedge, questioning the implied second-half contribution and future notional growth. He also inquired about the impact of FCA affordability changes on house price expectations and mortgage volume outlook.

Answer

Executive Director & CFO William Chalmers confirmed confidence in the structural hedge's contribution, with 2025 and 2026 income largely locked in. He and Group Chief Executive Charlie Nunn characterized the FCA affordability changes as helpful at the margin for supporting first-time buyers and house prices, but emphasized that broader strategic initiatives are the primary drivers of mortgage volume growth.

Benjamin Toms asked about the sustainability of the strong deposit growth seen in Q1, its implications for the structural hedge notional balance, and whether the 8% year-over-year growth in other income is expected to continue.

Answer

William Leon Chalmers, an executive, stated that while Q1 commercial deposits had some temporary inflows, the overall positive deposit trend is expected to continue, likely leading to a modest increase in the structural hedge balance this year. He also expressed confidence that other operating income would continue to grow at a similar pace to Q1, supported by strategic investments and activity levels.

Benjamin Toms asked if current consensus NIM forecasts for 2025 and 2026 align with the bank's expectation of a gentle rise. He also requested an update on the timing of Motor Finance court cases and whether they could impact provisioning ahead of the FCA's May 2025 review.

Answer

William Leon Chalmers, an executive, stated that while specific 2025 guidance is pending, the bank expects a gradual NIM increase next year driven by the structural hedge and tapering headwinds, offset slightly by rate cuts. Regarding Motor Finance, he clarified that the £200-£300 million remediation guidance is unrelated. He noted that while the FCA review is the main event, the bank will observe the court cases, mentioning that most historical cases have been decided in their favor.

Benjamin Toms from RBC inquired about two regulatory topics: potential capital headwinds from the UK regulator's letter on Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) transactions and the materiality of a potential softening of the ring-fencing regime for Barclays.

Answer

Executive Angela Cross clarified that the regulator's letter on SRTs focused on financing, which Barclays does not do for its own programs, so no capital impact is expected. Executive Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan stated that Barclays opposes relaxing the ring-fencing regime, arguing it provides crucial long-term depositor protection and systemic stability, despite short-term costs.

Benjamin Toms of RBC Capital Markets asked for an update on the potential impact from the FCA's review of motor finance in the U.K. and whether Santander believes it can improve its U.K. returns organically without participating in market consolidation.

Answer

CEO Héctor Grisi stated that due to significant uncertainties, the bank is not yet in a position to disclose the potential impact of the U.K. motor finance review but noted settlements so far have been better than expected. He also affirmed that the bank does not see itself playing a role in U.K. consolidation at this point and will focus on organic improvement.

Benjamin Toms inquired about the Investment Bank's plan to improve its European rates business, asking if it involved people or infrastructure, and questioned whether Net Interest Income (NII) had reached its lowest point.

Answer

CEO Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan stated that improving European rates is primarily about hiring people and enhancing client penetration, with results expected in quarters, not months. Group Finance Director Angela Cross addressed NII, noting more stability in the UK margin but also balance sheet movements, and reiterated the full-year NII guidance of circa £6.1 billion for Barclays UK.