Betty Jiang

Betty Jiang of Barclays requested an early outlook for 2026, asking about expected trends in capital spending, development plans, and the portion of the long-term free cash flow inflection that might be realized next year.

Answer

CFO and EVP Andy O’Brien provided a high-level view, stating that 2026 capital spending is expected to be lower than in 2025. He suggested that underlying production growth of around 2%, similar to 2025, would be a reasonable modeling assumption. O'Brien emphasized that the free cash flow inflection is already beginning in the second half of 2025 due to lower CapEx and other tailwinds, a trend that will continue into 2026.

Betty Jiang asked if ConocoPhillips would allow its reinvestment rate to run higher to fund major projects while maintaining its cash return framework, and if there was a level of outspend they were uncomfortable with.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance explained that while the reinvestment rate will naturally fluctuate with commodity prices, the company is committed to its long-cycle projects like Willow, stating that slowing them down would be the 'absolute worst thing to do.' He emphasized that these projects are designed to lower the company's long-term breakeven and reinvestment rate once they come online. Flexibility to adjust spending resides in the shorter-cycle portfolio.

Betty Jiang asked about the increase in third-party activity and backlog, seeking to understand how much was driven by the CTO acquisition versus broader uplift in legacy assets. She also inquired about the potential impact of AI on the royalty model, including predictive analytics for future activity, deal valuation, and operational/M&A efficiency.

Answer

CEO Kaes Van't Hof stated that the increase in third-party activity is pretty evenly mixed between CTO contributions (outperforming underwriting) and legacy Viper's assets (outperforming due to higher NRIs). Regarding AI, he noted its potential for making the business more efficient through automation of back-end processes like tracking 35,000 wells, and highlighted big data and automation as key synergies from the CTO team.

Betty Jiang from Barclays inquired about the drivers behind the impressive third-party operator activity despite a broader industry slowdown and asked if this level of activity is sustainable. She also questioned if this could lead to an upside in the 2026 production growth outlook.

Answer

Kaes Van’t Hof, CEO & Director, attributed the strong activity to exposure to consistent large-cap operators like Exxon and Oxy, development on recently acquired concentrated assets, and the Double Eagle development agreement. He confirmed that while the 2026 guidance assumes flat third-party volumes, the current activity levels suggest a potential for upside.

Betty Jiang from Barclays asked for color on the impressive third-party operator activity on Viper's assets, especially during a broader industry slowdown, and questioned its sustainability. She also inquired if this strong activity could lead to an upside in the 2026 production growth forecast.

Answer

CEO Kaes Van’t Hof attributed the robust third-party activity to Viper's exposure to consistent large-cap operators like Exxon and Oxy, new activity on recently acquired assets, and development from Double Eagle. He confirmed that while the official 2026 guidance assumes flat third-party volumes, current activity levels suggest a potential for growth, creating upside to the mid-single-digit forecast which is primarily based on Diamondback's activity.

Betty Jiang inquired about the anticipated Endeavor mineral drop-down, asking about the potential timing, funding structure, and the level of debt Viper might assume. She also asked for an update on how the Endeavor merger improves Viper's visibility into future development activity on its mineral assets.

Answer

CEO Travis Stice stated that while specifics are being determined by the boards, the funding for the Endeavor drop-down will likely involve a mix of modest, quickly repayable debt, equity capital, and Diamondback taking back some equity. He stressed that excessively levering Viper is not the plan. Stice also confirmed that the merger significantly enhances future development visibility, as teams are actively working to high-grade development plans on what was previously Viper's second-largest third-party operator's acreage, providing a tailwind for 2026 and beyond.

Betty Jiang asked about Coterra Energy's cash return strategy, focusing on the allocation of excess free cash flow between debt reduction and share buybacks, and the potential to return to a 100% return level in the coming year.

Answer

Shane Young, Executive Vice President and CFO, explained that while deleveraging was prioritized year-to-date, the company is now opportunistically reinitiating buybacks alongside continued debt reduction. He referenced past return levels (94% in 2024, 75% in 2023) as a target for a robust return to capital program in 2026. Tom Jorden, Chairman, CEO, and President, added that asset performance, especially from new acquisitions, is strong, positioning Coterra to exit the year as a stronger company.

Betty Jiang inquired about Coterra's cash return strategy, the allocation of excess free cash flow between debt reduction and buybacks, and the potential to return to a 100% return level next year. She also asked about Permian activity, how production from wells tracked against initial guidance, and if the high end of TILs changes the outlook for 2026.

Answer

Shane Young, Executive Vice President and CFO, explained that Coterra prioritized deleveraging but is now opportunistically reinitiating buybacks, aiming for a robust return to capital program in 2026, referencing 94% in 2024 and 75% in 2023. He noted that Q2 and Q3 TILs were below expectations, pushing activity to Q4, with productivity meeting or exceeding expectations. Tom Jorden, Chairman, CEO, and President, added that Coterra is exiting the year as a stronger company due to solid asset performance and a balanced portfolio.

Betty Jiang from Barclays asked for more detail on the reduction in 2025 cash taxes and the outlook for the 70-90% cash tax range in the future. She also inquired if share buybacks would accelerate after the term loan is repaid, potentially returning to a 100% free cash flow payout.

Answer

EVP & CFO Shane Young explained the lower 2025 cash taxes are due to recent tax law changes allowing 100% bonus depreciation and R&D expense deductions, plus a step-up in basis from recent acquisitions. He confirmed that once debt paydown is complete, the focus can shift back to more robust buybacks, noting the company has previously been in the 75-100% payout range.

Betty Jiang asked about the long-term impact of growing gas marketing opportunities on Expand Energy's gas realization, specifically if differentials are expected to narrow. She also inquired about the M&A strategy for resource expansion in Appalachia and Western Hanzo, asking about the company's objectives and the potential for similar low-cost deals.

Answer

CEO Nick Dell'Osso and EVP of Marketing and Commercial Dan Turco explained that they expect to add significant margin through marketing optimization, aggregation, and customer solutions, leading to improved realizations. COO Josh Viets characterized the Southwest Appalachia acquisition as opportunistic and synergistic, while the Western Hanzo acquisition was strategic, aiming for low cost and limited near-term obligations, with plans to continue evaluating similar opportunities.

Betty Jiang inquired about EQT's growth capital allocation strategy, how the value of midstream opportunities is assessed (pricing uplift vs. volume growth), and if opportunities extend beyond the previously identified $1 billion investment. She also asked if EQT sees opportunities for separate upstream sales agreements for premium pricing with MVP Boost utilities.

Answer

Jeremy Knop, CFO, explained that long-term value uplift primarily comes from sustainably growing base volumes into premium markets, unlocking EQT's upstream inventory, and confirmed the midstream growth pipeline continues to expand. He added that MVP's connection to EQT's upstream systems creates opportunities for further upstream pipeline expansions and sales deals.

Betty Jiang asked about EQT's growth capital allocation, how it assesses the value of opportunities (including flow-through to upstream benefits), and the expansion of its growth pipeline. She also inquired about opportunities to sign separate sales agreements for MVP Boost to lock in premium pricing.

Answer

Jeremy Knop (CFO, EQT) explained that long-term value uplift primarily comes from unlocking EQT's upstream inventory and growing volumes sustainably into premium markets, confirming the growth pipeline continues to expand. He noted that while utilities are signing up for MVP Boost pipeline capacity, there are opportunities for further upstream pipeline expansions and sales deals, setting the stage for future negotiations.

Betty Jiang of Barclays requested more detail on M2 pricing dynamics, including the market size and the materiality of new demand. She also asked what pricing signals, such as the M2 discount to Henry Hub, would trigger a production increase versus reallocating existing volumes.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Knop estimated the M2 and Dominion markets at 5-7 Bcf/d each and emphasized that the new demand is primarily an EQT opportunity due to its integrated infrastructure. He noted that with over 2 Bcf/d of reallocatable volume, EQT has significant flexibility. The decision to grow versus reallocate will depend on a combination of Henry Hub and local basis pricing, with no concrete commitment yet as the outlook is three to five years out.

Betty Jiang of Barclays inquired about the CIP partnership's initial focus areas and project sourcing process. She also asked if the carbon sequestered gas (CSG) deal with Gunvor is a proof-of-concept and how large the market for this product could become.

Answer

CEO Chris Kalnin and President of Upstream Eric Jacobsen detailed that the CIP partnership is progressing well, with projects like Eagle Ford moving into the JV as they mature, and CIP is also bringing new projects to the table. Regarding the Gunvor deal, Mr. Kalnin described it as a foundational step in building a market for CSG, which he sees having substantial potential for customers in marine fuel, data centers, and industries facing carbon regulations.

Betty Jiang requested details on the funding mechanism for the CIP joint venture, including the valuation of contributed assets and the expected pace of the $500 million capital drawdown. She also followed up on the potential for data center customers to pay a premium for decarbonized power and gas, asking about the progress of those commercial discussions.

Answer

CFO David Tameron stated that while specific financial details of the CIP deal are confidential, the transaction is accretive to BKV's economics, and the capital will be drawn down over the next 12 to 24 months as projects are developed. CEO Christopher Kalnin confirmed that discussions with large technology companies willing to pay a premium for decarbonized, around-the-clock power are very active, as BKV can uniquely offer a flexible menu of energy solutions to help them meet ESG goals.

Betty (Wei) Jiang inquired about the market acceptance of carbon capture as a method for creating low-carbon power, particularly among data center customers, and asked if the success of Barnett Zero has increased interest from other midstream operators.

Answer

CEO Chris Kalnin confirmed strong traction with data centers, which are particularly interested in BKV's ability to offer 'hour-by-hour' carbon offsetting for baseload power. COO Eric Jacobsen stated that interest from other midstream operators is ramping up, noting BKV has secured three emitter agreements and has five more under exclusivity, driven by the proven success of the Barnett Zero project.

Betty Jiang of Barclays asked about the cost trajectory to achieve a sub-$100/MWh LCOE, which was previously expected to take 10-20 deployments. She also inquired about quarterly cash burn expectations and the anticipated timeline for securing an offtake agreement.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Danny Rice explained that the new integrated product inverts the commercialization path, allowing them to start with a low LCOE and moderate carbon intensity, aligning with current market demands. He maintained a year-end cash target of around $340M, with spending focused on G&A and the La Porte facility. Rice noted that securing offtake agreements is the next critical step, with a potential FID for the gas turbine portion in the next 60-120 days and a mid-2026 target for the core Net Power plant.

The analyst asked about the design and economic implementation of the oxygen storage feature, questioning how it's integrated into the plant design and how its baseload and peaking power capabilities would be monetized.

Answer

Executives explained that the oxygen storage capacity is a customizable design choice based on project-specific economics, building upon an inherent need for some on-site liquid oxygen for backup. Monetization would capture the significant value of providing both 24/7 baseload power to co-located customers and dispatchable peaking power to the grid, which they believe represents one of the lowest-cost forms of long-duration energy storage.

Betty Jiang questioned if the benefits from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' for 45Q credits would shift Occidental's strategic focus toward more point-source carbon capture for EOR. She also asked about the cash tax saving potential beyond 2027.

Answer

President & CEO Vicki Hollub affirmed a long-standing interest in point-source capture, hoping the new legislation encourages industrial partnerships. President, U.S. Onshore, Richard Jackson, added that Permian gas-to-power generation is a tailwind. CFO Sunil Mathew stated that post-2026 tax savings depend on capital trajectory, with the Battleground expansion being a key factor in 2026.

Betty Jang inquired about the Rockies development program for 2025 and beyond, focusing on activity levels, capital allocation, and future potential. She also asked for an update on the company's confidence in reaching its $15 billion net debt target.

Answer

Richard Jackson, President, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management, explained that Rockies activity reflects efficiency gains offset by infrastructure investments in the new Bronco development area, with plans to resume Powder River Basin activity in H2 2025. Vicki Hollub, President and CEO, affirmed confidence in reaching the debt target, projecting it would likely be achieved in early 2027, supported by operational cash flow and potential asset sales.

Betty Jiang from Barclays asked for the drivers behind the significant expected reduction in UK taxes for 2026 and the trajectory for decommissioning spending. She also inquired about the sustainable free cash flow profile of the Egypt business.

Answer

EVP & CFO Ben Rodgers explained that UK taxes are expected to drop in 2026 as the North Sea assets, without new investment, will likely enter a tax-loss position due to natural production declines. He noted ARO spending will ramp up, peaking around 2030-2031. For Egypt, Rodgers stated that growing gas volumes and improved pricing are expected to more than offset modest oil declines, leading to growth in total BOE volumes and a modest increase in free cash flow year-over-year into 2026.

Betty Jiang of Barclays PLC asked for a reconciliation of the $130 million in-year cost savings to the higher $225 million year-end run rate, seeking to understand the key drivers. She also requested specific examples of initiatives expected to lower Lease Operating Expenses (LOE).

Answer

CFO Ben Rodgers and CEO John Christmann explained that the higher run rate reflects the full-year impact of savings captured in 2025, ongoing capital efficiencies, and future contributions from overhead and LOE reductions. President and CFO Steve Riney added that the $800,000 per-well savings in the Permian is a primary driver. For LOE specifics, Riney mentioned initiatives including pumper route optimization and renegotiating contracts for services like water disposal and compression.

Betty Jiang of Barclays inquired about the drivers behind recent capital efficiency improvements and their impact on the maintenance CapEx outlook, as well as the expected evolution of cash tax savings beyond 2025.

Answer

President & CEO Francisco Leon attributed capital efficiency to strong performance from the acquired Era assets and operational excellence, confirming they expect to be at the low end of the $500-$600M maintenance capital range. EVP & CFO Clio Crespy detailed future tax benefits, projecting cash taxes to decrease to high-single-digits as a percentage of EBITDAX and estimating cumulative savings of $80M-$150M over five years.

Betty Jiang from Barclays inquired about the status of the CalCapture project and its importance for the CTV joint venture and power business. She also asked for an early outlook on production for 2026, contingent on the California permitting situation.

Answer

CEO Francisco Leon described the CalCapture project as critical and directly linked to the data center opportunity, positioning natural gas with CCS as a key solution. He noted they are optimizing the project's cost and efficiency before submitting permits. For 2026, he expressed encouragement that permits will be received by year-end 2025, which would allow for a return to a more normalized investment level aimed at maintaining flat production.

Betty Jiang from Barclays asked about Devon's optimal long-term debt level and whether the company's lower cost structure is unlocking previously uneconomical resource opportunities.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jeff Ritenour identified an optimal absolute debt level of $6.0-$6.5 billion, which the current $2.5 billion reduction plan targets. He noted that reaching this goal could provide flexibility for increased shareholder returns in the future. SVP John Raines pointed to the Powder River Basin as a key area where cost reductions are unlocking resources, with a goal to lower well costs from over $13 million to a target of $10 million, making the asset highly competitive.

Betty Jiang from Barclays inquired about Devon's optimal long-term debt level and whether the company's lower cost structure is unlocking previously uneconomical resource opportunities.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jeff Ritenour identified an optimal absolute debt level of $6.0-$6.5 billion and confirmed that reaching this target is a priority, after which increased shareholder returns could be considered. SVP John Raines pointed to the Powder River Basin as a key area where cost reductions are unlocking resources, citing a goal to lower 3-mile Niobrara well costs from over $13 million toward a $10 million target, making the play highly competitive.

Betty Jiang from Barclays inquired about Devon's optimal long-term debt level and whether cash returns could increase after reaching it, and also asked if the lower cost structure is unlocking new, previously uneconomical resource opportunities.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jeff Ritenour stated the optimal absolute debt level is around $6.0-$6.5 billion and confirmed that future increases in shareholder returns would be considered after achieving this target. SVP John Raines highlighted the Powder River Basin as an area where cost reductions, aiming for a $10 million well cost, are making the resource increasingly competitive within the portfolio.

Betty Jiang of Barclays inquired about the evolution of the company's development mix across different geological zones and asked for an update on gas-to-power opportunities in the Permian.

Answer

COO Danny Wesson expects the mix to increasingly include 'upside zones' like the Upper Spraberry and Wolfcamp D as they are delineated. CEO Kaes Van't Hof added that the Endeavor acreage contributed to this shift. Regarding power, CFO Jere Thompson stated that while they are patiently evaluating in-basin power generation to lower costs and secure gas egress, no specific project is imminent. Van't Hof noted that power reliability is a basin-wide issue impacting operations.

Betty Jiang of Barclays asked about the strong affiliate distributions in Q2, which were driven by TCO's outperformance, and inquired if there could be upside to the distribution guidance for 2025 and 2026.

Answer

VP & CFO Eimear Bonner explained that the higher Q2 distribution was a result of both higher-than-anticipated production from TCO's rapid ramp-up and stronger commodity prices than were assumed in the initial guidance. Looking ahead, she noted that the first TCO loan repayment will be reflected in the adjusted free cash flow metric in Q3.

Betty Jiang inquired about the progress of Chevron's Power Solutions venture for AI data centers, asking about customer conversations, spending trends, and the impact of inflationary pressures.

Answer

CEO Mike Wirth confirmed strong customer demand and progress toward a final investment decision (FID) before year-end. While acknowledging cost pressures, he noted that pricing for the turbines has been secured. He stressed that Chevron will remain disciplined to ensure the projects meet competitive return thresholds within its portfolio.

Betty Jiang asked for details on the capital commitment for the new power venture, specifically regarding payments for the GE turbines and the amount of equity Chevron intends to contribute.

Answer

CEO Mike Wirth stated that while specific financial terms are confidential, Chevron has secured the turbine reservation slots with payments. He emphasized that the project will be funded with partners, will not be 100% Chevron equity, and will be managed within the company's existing capital expenditure guidance.

Betty Jiang of Barclays asked about the Low Carbon Solutions business, focusing on how evolving government incentives for hydrogen and carbon capture are shaping the opportunity set and capital expenditure plans.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Darren Woods noted that while CCS progress is strong with a growing customer base, the Baytown blue hydrogen project faces challenges from a shortened 45V tax credit timeline and market development uncertainty. He reiterated that CapEx for this segment has inherent uncertainty, which is why it's disclosed separately. The company will not proceed with the hydrogen project without a clear path to a market-driven business and secured offtakers.

Betty Jiang (identified as Wei Jiang in the transcript) questioned ExxonMobil's data center strategy, market interest in low-carbon power solutions, and the potential impact of recent news from competitors.

Answer

CEO Darren Woods detailed a strategy focused on providing decarbonized power for data centers by leveraging the company's end-to-end carbon capture, transport, and storage system. He confirmed strong customer interest and noted they could have a site operational by 2028 and decarbonized by 2029. He also stated that recent competitor news has not affected their customer conversations.

Betty Jiang questioned the customer appetite for NYMEX-linked power deals in Appalachia and asked how recent legislation in West Virginia specifically positions Antero for new power demand.

Answer

CFO Michael Kennedy asserted that Antero has leverage to demand NYMEX-based pricing due to the scale of new demand and Antero's status as a large, investment-grade, integrated producer. He confirmed that recent legislation in West Virginia is designed to attract data center development, which favorably positions the state and Antero for these opportunities.

Betty Jiang asked how much further costs need to fall for Deep Utica wells to be competitive with Marcellus returns and questioned the consistency of Utica performance. She also sought to clarify if RMG value recognition for AI would come from voluntary carbon credits or compliance markets, and if it would be incremental to other credits.

Answer

CFO & President Alan Shepard asserted that at the current cost structure, Utica wells are already competitive with the best Marcellus opportunities and expects repeatable results. On RMG, Shepard said CNX will sell to the market offering the highest value, currently the compliance REC markets. CEO Nick DeIuliis and Shepard clarified that a voluntary market sale would be a competing pathway, not generally stackable with other credits.

Betty Jiang requested details on the outperformance of prior acquisitions shown on Slide 10, asking which regions were the primary drivers. She also asked a follow-up question about the reasons for the significant changes in cash tax guidance during the year.

Answer

CEO Christopher Conoscenti and COO Jarret Marcoux addressed the acquisition performance, stating that success is defined by results being in line with or slightly better than underwriting. Marcoux clarified that the outperformance is primarily driven by the timing of new wells coming online sooner than modeled, rather than material outperformance of the wells themselves. CFO Carrie Osicka explained the tax guidance variance was due to updated forecasts after filing tax returns and complexities from a carryover credit, which she expects to be exhausted this year, simplifying future forecasts.

Betty Jiang asked for the company's thoughts on balancing share buybacks against debt reduction and sought clarity on the outlook for the line-of-sight activity backlog after a sequential decrease from Q1.

Answer

CEO Christopher Conoscenti clarified that the capital return decision is not a trade-off between buybacks and debt paydown, but rather how to allocate the minimum 65% of DCF between dividends and buybacks, favoring buybacks when the stock is attractively priced. Regarding activity, Conoscenti and executive Jarret Marcoux explained that Q1's turn-in-line count was an anomaly and Q2 was above the 2023 average. Marcoux added that the line-of-sight metric has already partially recovered and they do not model a material decline.

Asked about the value uplift from redirecting gas from the methanol plant to LNG sales in Equatorial Guinea and the potential to do more of this. Also questioned the sustainability of the high well productivity seen in the Permian.

Answer

Executives confirmed that diverting gas to higher-margin LNG is a key optimization strategy they are currently employing. This will be a larger option after the methanol plant's gas sales agreement expires in 2026. On the Permian, they expressed high confidence in the sustainability of well productivity, citing their lightly developed acreage position, deep inventory of high-quality locations, and a disciplined approach targeting proven benches with conservative spacing.