Bill Peterson

Bill Peterson asked about the current SEG+ stockpile's capacity to support heavy rare earth production, the nature of potential heavy feedstock suppliers (foreign/domestic), and whether M&A is being considered given the scarcity of viable ore bodies. He also inquired about customer engagement for the magnet business beyond Apple and GM, specifically regarding sample testing and future expansion plans for Independence and the 10x capacity target.

Answer

Ryan Corbett (Chief Financial Officer) stated that MP Materials has several hundred tons of SEG stockpiled, produced daily, providing confidence in inventory for commissioning the heavy rare earth circuit and satisfying Independence facility demands. Michael Rosenthal (Chief Operating Officer) added that the integrated site allows for processing diverse feedstocks, with ongoing discussions with domestic, recycling material, and foreign suppliers, expressing optimism about securing multiple options. Ryan Corbett (Chief Financial Officer) further explained that customer engagement has significantly increased across various verticals, but the company remains focused on foundational customers, with the Apple agreement anchoring the 10x expansion, allowing for selective customer engagement.

Bill Peterson asked about the current SEG Plus stockpile's capacity to support heavy production, engagement with other heavy feedstock suppliers (domestic/foreign), and potential M&A considerations for ore bodies. He also inquired about customer engagement beyond Apple and GM for the magnet business, including sample testing and future prospects for Independence and the 10x expansion.

Answer

Ryan Corbett (Founder and CFO) confirmed several hundred tons of SEG are stockpiled and produced daily, ensuring sufficient inventory for commissioning. Michael Rosenthal (Founder and COO) added that MP Materials' integrated site offers unique processing capabilities for various feedstocks, and they are in discussions with domestic, recycling, and foreign suppliers, confident in securing multiple options. Ryan Corbett further noted significant customer engagement across all magnet-consuming verticals, emphasizing focus on foundational customers (Apple, GM) and the 10x expansion, which allows for selective customer acquisition.

Bill Peterson inquired about the approach to developing recycling technology, including the role of Apple, and asked about the technical readiness for commercial magnet production for its lead customer.

Answer

COO Michael Rosenthal revealed that MP has been collaborating with Apple on recycling technology for over five years and will continue to work with technical partners. CFO Ryan Corbett confirmed they are consistently producing on-spec magnets for demanding EV applications and that the final step is transferring this proven process from trial production to scaled commercial manufacturing.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan inquired about the specific drivers behind Constellium's raised 2025 guidance, asking for a quantification or stack ranking of factors such as one-time customer payments, the restatement benefit, tariff headwind mitigation, and scrap spreads, particularly for Q4. He also sought clarification on the expected trajectory of aerospace recovery, questioning if it's a 2027 story or if a positive turn could occur in 2026.

Answer

CEO Jean-Marc Germain and CFO Jack Guo explained that the strong Q3 performance provided conviction for Q4. Jack Guo clarified that customer compensation was already in prior guidance, contributing significantly to price and mix. The accounting adjustment provided a $12 million benefit to segment adjusted EBITDA for the first half. Scrap spreads are expected to offer more benefits in Q4 due to open positions and modest gains from a competitor's fire, though year-to-date they were a headwind. Jean-Marc Germain added that while the fire creates some benefits, it also introduces volatility in order patterns for domestic OEMs. COO and CEO Appointee Ingrid Joerg indicated that aerospace destocking is easing, particularly in Europe, with supply chain challenges narrowing to a small percentage. She noted Boeing's approved build rate increases as a positive sign, suggesting a potentially much better picture in a few quarters, with Jean-Marc Germain adding more optimism for a faster recovery than three months prior.

Bill Peterson inquired about the data center opportunity relative to the larger warehouse market, Nucor's market share gains, and the drivers behind increased conversion costs.

Answer

Leon Topalian (Chair, President, and CEO) clarified that the traditional warehouse market is flat, while data centers are projected for double-digit growth for the next 5-6 years. John Hollatz (Executive Vice President) emphasized Nucor's unique ability to supply nearly all steel products for data centers. Steve Laxton (Executive Vice President and CFO) highlighted Nucor's portfolio flexibility. Dave Sumoski (Chief Operating Officer) attributed higher conversion costs to slab costs for CSI, increased consumables like refractory, and slightly higher labor due to planned outages, noting overall year-over-year costs are down 5%.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the drivers of margin compression in the steel products segment and asked which steel mill products have the most potential to displace imports.

Answer

President, CEO & Chairman Leon Topalian attributed the product margin pressure to a lag effect from earlier, lower-priced orders, not weak demand. EVP John Hollatz noted the downstream businesses have improved their earnings profile. Topalian also identified broad opportunities to increase utilization across sheet, plate, and long products to displace imports, which remain too high.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the drivers behind the expected margin compression in the steel products segment, the directional outlook for pricing, and which steel mill products offer the best opportunity to displace imports.

Answer

President and CEO Leon Topalian attributed the nominal margin adjustment in steel products to a lag effect from orders booked at lower prices in late Q4/early Q1, while affirming that underlying demand remains robust. He noted that opportunities to displace imports exist across sheet, plate, and rebar, with overall mill utilization at a healthy 85%. EVP John Hollatz added that the downstream businesses have successfully redefined their earnings profiles, separating pricing from raw material movements.

Bill Peterson questioned the impact of shipping days on Q1 results, potential demand pull-forward, and intersegment eliminations.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian addressed demand and backlog strength. EVP John Hollatz clarified the calendar effect and the rise in corporate eliminations.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the trajectory of aerospace and high-strength shipments, the status of packaging contract negotiations and expected pricing uplift, and the breakdown of commissioning charges for new facilities.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Keith Harvey confirmed expectations for a Q4 recovery in aerospace shipments to first-half levels, with Trittwood's Phase 7 expansion having a minor impact. He anticipates continued improvement in 2026 with increasing build rates and abating destocking. For packaging, Mr. Harvey reiterated a target of 300-400 basis points EBITDA margin increase from contract renegotiations, with Warwick operating at 75-80% capacity next year for optimal delivery. He also clarified that the majority of commissioning costs were related to the Warwick coating line, with reduced costs expected in Q4.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the significant 30% quarter-on-quarter decline in aerospace and high-strength shipments, seeking clarification on the split between planned maintenance and underlying market weakness. He also asked about the expected recovery trajectory for aerospace and high-strength in Q4 2025 and into 2026, particularly as destocking abates. Additionally, Peterson questioned the status of packaging contract renegotiations, the anticipated magnitude of pricing uplift from new contracts in 2026, and the breakdown of commissioning charges between the Warrick roll coat line and Trentwood Phase VII, including expectations for Q4.

Answer

Keith Harvey, Chairman, President, and CEO of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, confirmed Bill Peterson's assessment of a strong Q4 recovery for aerospace shipments, nearing Q1/Q2 2025 levels despite ongoing Phase VII finalization. Harvey indicated that destocking is easing, and build rates are increasing, with more detailed 2026 insights expected in February. Regarding packaging, Harvey stated the company is holding firm on a 300-400 basis points EBITDA margin increase, with most contracts finalized and the last major customer expected to conclude by year-end 2025, leading to accelerated rates. He also noted a measured approach to Warrick's capacity in 2026, utilizing 75-80% to ensure exemplary delivery. For commissioning charges, Harvey clarified that the majority of the $20 million was related to the Warrick roll coat line startup, with Trentwood's Phase VII having minimal impact, and lower costs are expected in Q4 2025.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for details on the delay in commissioning the new packaging coating line, the timeline for the aerospace inventory destocking to conclude, and the expected EBITDA cadence for the second half of 2025.

Answer

CEO Keith Harvey explained that the packaging line delay is due to typical startup complexities, debugging, and customer qualifications, compounded by underperformance from third-party converters. He stated the aerospace inventory destocking should resolve by year-end as OEM build rates increase. Harvey also clarified that he expects Q2 was the EBITDA trough, with the second half's performance likely to be strong as the packaging ramp-up offsets a temporary dip in aerospace.

Bill Peterson asked about the recent trend in hyperscaler interest in Alcoa's idled assets and the progress of related dialogues. He also sought clarification on whether demand weakness in construction and transportation, contrasted with strength in packaging and electrical, indicates demand destruction, substitution due to tariffs/premiums, or cyclical factors.

Answer

William Oplinger, CEO, confirmed that hyperscaler interest has not diminished, and Alcoa is actively dimensioning and marketing opportunities at its closed sites with existing electrical infrastructure. Regarding demand, he stated Alcoa does not believe it's demand destruction. Packaging and electrical sectors remain strong, while building construction awaits lower interest rates. The primary weakness is in the automotive sector in both Europe and North America, where it's difficult to discern if it's demand destruction or substitution, particularly with EVs from China in Europe.

Bill Peterson asked about the recent trend in hyperscaler interest in Alcoa's idled assets and interconnections, and whether the U.S. demand profile (packaging/electrical strength, construction/transportation weakness) indicates demand destruction, substitution due to tariffs/Midwest premium, or cyclical factors.

Answer

William Oplinger, CEO, stated hyperscaler interest has not mitigated, and Alcoa is actively evaluating and marketing its closed sites with existing electrical infrastructure. Regarding demand, he believes it's not demand destruction, noting strong packaging/electrical, stable building construction (awaiting lower interest rates), and weakness in automotive, which could be cyclical or due to substitution by Chinese EVs in Europe.

Bill Peterson asked about the status of the San Ciprian labor agreement following the force majeure declaration and inquired about Alcoa's commercial strategy in response to tariffs, including cost-sharing, redirecting shipments, and potential government relief.

Answer

President, CEO & Director William Oplinger confirmed that force majeure was declared on the San Ciprian agreement, pushing the full restart to mid-2026. Regarding tariffs, he highlighted extensive government advocacy and the redirection of 100,000 tons of Canadian metal, noting that the higher Midwest premium effectively passes most of the cost to customers.

Bill Peterson posed a longer-term question about CMC's vision for its product mix in a five-plus year timeframe, considering the recent precast acquisitions and the margin structure of newer businesses. He asked if CMC would consider selling core assets to accelerate this transition and also inquired about the typical seasonality for the North America Steel Group's various sub-segments.

Answer

President and CEO Peter Matt outlined CMC's strategy to become an early-stage construction supplier, integrating rebar, fabrication, Tensar, precast, Performance Reinforcing Steel, and Construction Services. He emphasized building the precast business to national scale (several hundred million dollars of EBITDA) through M&A and organic growth, and growing Tensar and PRS due to market potential. He stressed the importance of the TAG program to improve the steel business's margins and operational excellence, aiming for margins comparable to EBG businesses. SVP and CFO Paul Lawrence clarified that typical seasonality for the North America Steel Group in Q1 (September-November) involves a 2-3% reduction in volumes, with stronger impacts on other segments like EBG due to site preparation's cyclical nature, and Europe due to planned outages.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the product mix trends in Europe for Q4, the outlook for European shipments, and the pricing dynamics within the fabrication backlog, asking when higher-priced awards would flow through.

Answer

President & CEO Peter Matt expects strong European shipments in Q4, with a continued focus on a profitable MBQ mix. He expressed optimism for the European market, citing government spending in Poland and Germany. For the fabrication backlog, he noted that while Q3 booking prices were competitive, he expects them to rise in Q4. He praised the fabrication team's discipline in pursuing value over volume and managing duration risk.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the European segment's product mix and shipment outlook for Q4, and whether pricing for new projects entering the fabrication backlog is higher than existing backlog prices.

Answer

President & CEO Peter Matt stated that European shipments will remain strong in Q4, with a focus on optimizing the mix towards more profitable merchant bar quality (MBQ) products. He also expressed optimism for Europe due to infrastructure spending and stimulus. Regarding the fabrication backlog, he noted that while Q3 booking prices were competitive, he expects them to increase in Q4. He praised the fabrication team's discipline in managing duration risk and focusing on value, which will keep the business profitable through the cycle.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the European segment's product mix and shipment outlook, as well as pricing trends within the fabrication backlog and when higher-priced projects would impact results.

Answer

President & CEO Peter Matt stated that European shipments are expected to remain strong, with a focus on optimizing the mix towards more profitable merchant bar quality (MBQ) products. Regarding the fabrication business, he noted that while booking prices slid in a competitive Q3, he expects them to increase in Q4. He highlighted the team's discipline in prioritizing value over volume and managing duration risk, which will keep the segment profitable through the cycle.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the expected timing of a piloted transition flight (full VTOL), what steps are needed to de-risk it, and when FAA pilots might fly the aircraft.

Answer

Chief Technology Officer Tom Muniz stated that after focusing on conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) tests, the company plans to return to piloted VTOL flying later this year. He emphasized that extensive unpiloted VTOL data has already de-risked this flight regime. The new aircraft being built are positioned to support TIA testing starting late this year and into next, with specific flight test objectives aligned with the FAA for each aircraft.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about specific plans for expanding Blade's passenger business and what Joby intends to do with Blade's less synergistic jet business. He also questioned how the DoD's $9.4 billion budget for autonomous aircraft could translate into opportunities for Joby.

Answer

Executive Chairman Paul Sciarra responded that while Blade's existing business can be expanded, the primary goal is to leverage Joby's aircraft to expand the route map and increase margins. Regarding defense, he stated Joby is working with L3Harris to missionize its aircraft for key use cases, aiming to translate flight demonstrations into deployment quickly, leveraging their dual-use manufacturing approach.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the timing of the passenger business sale, the growth outlook and steady-state margins for the standalone medical business, any near-term seasonality, and the tax implications of the transaction.

Answer

CEO Rob Wiesenthal explained the sale was timed to unlock shareholder value, as the market was discounting the passenger business, and to partner with Joby, whom he sees as the leader in the path to eVTOL certification. CFO Will Hayburn reiterated a long-term high-teens adjusted EBITDA margin target for the medical business, driven by technology adoption, new customer wins, and ancillary services. Hayburn noted minimal seasonality and stated that existing NOLs would largely offset the capital gain, resulting in an immaterial cash tax impact.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a breakdown of the 15-20% CapEx increase for the Highland Valley mine life extension and whether this implies similar increases for Zafranal or San Nicolas. He also requested an update on the NewRange project in the U.S.

Answer

President & CEO Jonathan Price attributed the HVC CapEx increase to project contingencies, inflation, potential tariffs, and an accelerated procurement of mobile equipment to de-risk the project. EVP & CFO Crystal Prystai added that the figure resulted from a rigorous governance process with independent assurance. Price stated there is no direct read-through for other projects, but the same rigorous approach will be applied. Regarding NewRange, he described it as a longer-term option, with current work focused on defining the optimal project configuration before advancing to permitting.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a breakdown of the CapEx increase for the Highland Valley extension and whether this implies similar increases for other projects. He also requested an update on the NewRange project.

Answer

President & CEO Jonathan Price attributed the HVC CapEx increase to contingencies, inflation, potential tariffs, and accelerated equipment procurement to de-risk the project. EVP & CFO Crystal Prystai noted a rigorous independent assurance process was used. Price stated there is no direct read-through for other projects' capital costs. Regarding NewRange, he described it as a longer-term option with work focused on defining the project's optimal configuration.

Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a breakdown of the higher CapEx for the Highland Valley extension and whether this implied cost inflation for other projects like Zafranal or San Nicolas. He also requested an update on the NewRange project.

Answer

President & CEO Jonathan Price attributed the HVC CapEx increase to contingency, inflation, potential tariffs, and accelerated equipment procurement to de-risk the project. EVP & CFO Crystal Prystai added that while the same rigorous review process will apply to future projects, there is no direct read-through on costs. Price described NewRange as a longer-term option, with current work focused on defining the project's scope.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a breakdown of the CapEx increase for the Highland Valley mine life extension and whether this implies similar cost inflation for other projects. He also requested an update on the NewRange project.

Answer

President & CEO Jonathan Price attributed the HVC CapEx increase to contingency, inflation, potential tariffs, and accelerated mobile equipment procurement to de-risk the project. EVP & CFO Crystal Prystai added that rigorous independent assurance processes were applied. Price cautioned against a direct read-through to other projects but confirmed the same rigorous approach would be used. He described NewRange as a longer-term option that is still being defined.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the recent change to the Grasberg mine plan, asking what prompted the update and for details on the modeling adjustments.

Answer

President & CEO Kathleen Quirk explained that after detecting a variance between modeled and actual gold grades, the company recalibrated its industry-standard block cave software to better match historical results, noting the issue is timing-related due to grade variability across 900 draw points. President & COO Mark Johnson added that estimating becomes more complex as mining deepens, with material flow affecting gold grades more than copper.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the specifics of the recent Grasberg mine plan change, asking what prompted the update and for details on the revised modeling.

Answer

President & CEO Kathleen Quirk explained that quarterly forecast updates revealed a differential between actual gold grades and the model's projections. She stated the model was recalibrated to better match historical results. President & COO Mark Johnson added that grade estimation becomes more complex as mining deepens due to material mixing, noting that while copper grades are stable, gold grades vary significantly.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about expectations for overall steel mill utilization in the third quarter, questioning if it could return to the 90% range. He also inquired about any notable mix impacts between joist and deck products in the fabrication business.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett explained that Q2 utilization was impacted by the Sinton oxygen issue and scheduled maintenance outages at three mills, suggesting a large portion of that volume will return in Q3. EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler stated that the fabrication mix has been consistently around 50% deck and 50% joist for the last year and she does not expect that to change.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the outlook for overall mill utilization in Q3, questioning if a return to the 90% range is achievable. He also inquired about any potential mix shifts between joist and deck in the fabrication business.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett indicated that Q2 utilization was negatively impacted by the Sinton oxygen issue and scheduled maintenance at three mills, suggesting a significant portion of that volume should return in Q3. EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler added that the fabrication mix has been stable at approximately 50% joist and 50% deck for the past year and is expected to remain so.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the outlook for overall steel mill utilization in Q3 and whether the demand environment supports a return to levels above 90%. He also inquired about any expected shifts in the product mix for the fabrication business.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett indicated that Q2 utilization was negatively impacted by the Sinton oxygen issue and scheduled maintenance at three mills, suggesting a significant portion of that volume should return in Q3. CFO Theresa Wagler stated that the fabrication product mix has been stable at approximately 50% joist and 50% deck, and she expects this to continue.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about expectations for overall steel mill utilization in the third quarter and inquired about any notable mix shifts between joist and deck products within the fabrication business.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett attributed the lower Q2 utilization to the Sinton oxygen issue and scheduled maintenance outages at three mills, suggesting a large portion of that volume would return in Q3. EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler addressed the fabrication mix, stating it has been consistently around 50% deck and 50% joist for the last year and she does not expect that to change.

Bill Peterson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the outlook for overall steel mill utilization in Q3 and whether there were any notable mix shifts between joist and deck products in the fabrication business.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett indicated that Q3 utilization should improve as the impacts from Q2's maintenance outages and the Sinton oxygen issue are resolved. EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler confirmed the fabrication product mix has been stable at approximately 50% joist and 50% deck and is expected to remain so.

Bennett, on behalf of Bill Peterson from JPMorgan Chase & Co., asked about the recent tightness in UBC scrap spreads, whether it could be a structural trend, the expected scrap intensity at the new aluminum facility (ADI), and the outlook for ADI's quarterly losses.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett stated that the scrap tightness is not a new norm and expects the market to normalize. He projected recycled content of ~95% for can stock and 60-65% for auto grades. CFO Theresa Wagler guided Q1 start-up losses for the aluminum project to be in the $30M-$35M range, with some increases in the first half of the year until sales commence.

The analyst asked about the in-house vs. third-party testing capabilities of their new facility and whether EASA accepts simulator results for certification. The second question was about the outlook for cash usage in the next year, covering CapEx, supplier payments, operating expenses, and hiring needs.

Answer

Lilium tests key components in-house using a test pyramid approach but also relies on certified suppliers for certain tests. Their DOA from EASA allows them to conduct many tests independently. For the next year's cash use, the company is not providing specific guidance but noted that spending will shift from engineering-related CapEx towards industrial investments for production. The second half of 2024 cash spend is expected to be slightly higher than the first half.