Bose George

Bose George from KBW inquired about price competition and changes in the mortgage insurance industry, specifically regarding premium stability. He also asked about the likelihood of a potential reduction in FHA premiums and later followed up on modeling ceded premium, particularly the impact of profit commission on the premium line.

Answer

CEO Tim Mattke confirmed that MGIC maintained desired value and premium stability in the quarter, similar to the rest of the year. Regarding FHA premiums, Mr. Mattke acknowledged it's always a possibility due to affordability discussions but doesn't perceive it as imminent. CFO and Chief Risk Officer Nathan Colson explained that modeling ceded premium is complex due to profit commission's dependence on future losses, noting a $4 million sequential decrease in profit commission due to ceded losses.

Bose George asked about any observed price competition or changes in the industry, specifically confirming the stability of premiums. He also inquired about the possibility of a reduction in FHA premiums, asking if management had seen any indications from the FHA or administration. In a follow-up, he asked for a good run rate for ceded premium for modeling purposes, particularly regarding the impact on the premium line.

Answer

Tim Mattke, Chief Executive Officer, stated that MGIC was able to find value without major premium adjustments, indicating stability. Regarding FHA premiums, Mr. Mattke views it as a possibility due to affordability discussions but has not seen any increasing discussions or imminent changes. Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Risk Officer, explained that the ceded premium is challenging to model due to the profit commission on quota share deals, which decreases with higher ceded losses. He noted that profit commission was down $4 million sequentially due to additional ceded losses.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about MGIC's outlook on home prices and whether industry pricing might adjust if appreciation slows or turns negative. He also sought clarification on whether the full-year operating expense guidance includes a recent $4 million pension-related charge.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Chief Risk Officer Nathan Colson stated that national home price forecasts are generally flat, though regional performance may vary. He emphasized that the company's granular, risk-based pricing model allows for dynamic adjustments to market-specific risks and that slowing appreciation is a long-term de-risking factor. Regarding expenses, Colson confirmed that the full-year operating expense guidance of $195 million to $205 million already incorporates the $4 million Q2 pension charge, as well as expectations for smaller, similar charges in the second half of the year.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about MGIC's outlook on home prices and whether a slowdown or decline could trigger adjustments in industry pricing. He also sought clarification on whether the $4 million pension-related charge was included in the full-year operating expense guidance.

Answer

Nathan Colson, EVP, CFO & Chief Risk Officer, responded that national home price forecasts are generally flat, with notable regional variations. He highlighted that MGIC's dynamic, risk-based pricing model allows for granular adjustments to market-specific risks. Colson also confirmed that the $4 million pension charge is included within the reiterated full-year operating expense guidance of $195 million to $205 million.

Bose George questioned the trend of higher debt-to-income (DTI) ratios in recent originations and asked for the ultimate claim rate on the recently cured 2023 and 2024 notices.

Answer

CEO Timothy Mattke attributed higher DTIs to housing affordability pressures, noting that strong offsetting credit characteristics and risk-based pricing mitigate the risk. CFO Nathaniel Colson clarified that for new notices received in 2023, the ultimate claim rate expectation is now 3-5%, down from the initial 7.5%, and for more seasoned 2021-2022 notices, it is even lower at 1-3%.

Bose George questioned the drivers behind MGIC's significant growth in new insurance written (NIW) compared to peers and asked about the mark-to-market loan-to-value on recent 2022-2023 vintage delinquencies.

Answer

CEO Tim Mattke attributed the NIW growth to gaining market share by being more aligned with market pricing, while emphasizing a long-term focus on returns over quarterly share fluctuations. CFO Nathan Colson addressed the credit question by stating the company de-emphasizes mark-to-market LTV on delinquent loans, as losses can occur even with home price appreciation, and the focus remains on loans in areas not experiencing average appreciation.

Bose George inquired about the recent meeting with the new FHFA Director, asking where mortgage insurance might rank among his priorities, and also asked for MGIC's perspective on whether the Rocket-Cooper merger could have any potential impact on mortgage insurers.

Answer

CEO Timothy Mattke described the meeting with the FHFA Director as an introductory 'meet and greet' to establish a relationship, stating he doesn't expect private mortgage insurance to be a top priority. Regarding the merger, Mattke noted that while they are following it closely, it is tough to know the exact operational outcomes and he does not see a direct read-through or impact for the MI industry at this time.

Bose George asked about the likelihood of LLPA and guarantee fee reductions at the GSEs and how the agency market is pricing this possibility. He also questioned if there have been any changes in bank interest or activity in the MSR market due to capital rule adjustments.

Answer

CIO Nick Letica indicated a reasonable chance of LLPA grid changes, which are somewhat, but not entirely, priced into the market. He noted no significant new changes in bank interest or activity in the MSR market, which continues to show strong demand.

Bose George inquired about the key drivers behind the increase in Economic Adjusted Dividend (EAD) during the third quarter compared to the second quarter, and what factors influence the EAD moving from the low to high end of the guided range. He also asked for an update on the book value quarter-to-date.

Answer

William Dellal, Chief Financial Officer, explained that the EAD increase was primarily driven by a decrease in the cost of financing securities, with asset yields remaining relatively constant. He clarified that this was not a continuing trend but a result of changes in the liability mix between TBAs and financing on TBAs/spec pools. Bill Greenberg, President and CEO, added that the book value was up approximately 1% as of the previous Friday.

Bose George inquired about the key drivers behind the increase in the EAD (Earnings Available for Distribution) in the third quarter relative to the second quarter, and what factors influence moving from the low to high end of the guided range. He also asked for an update on the quarter-to-date book value and followed up on the EAD trend with potential Fed rate cuts.

Answer

William Dellal (CFO) explained that the EAD increase was primarily due to a decrease in the cost of financing asset securities, with asset yields remaining relatively constant. He clarified that this trend is not expected to continue, being largely a result of changes in the mix of liabilities between TBAs and spec pools. Bill Greenberg (President and CEO) reported that the book value was up approximately 1% as of the previous Friday.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked for clarification on the main drivers behind the difference between the forward-looking return potential on Slide 15 and the EAD metric. He also followed up on whether the company's view on leverage would change once the reserved capital for litigation is paid out.

Answer

William Greenberg, President & CEO, explained that the EAD metric is based on historical purchase yields, making it asynchronous, while the return outlook slide reflects forward-looking mark-to-market yields. William Dellal, VP & CFO, added that EAD will likely trend below the economic return due to recent spread widening. Nicholas Letica, VP & CIO, stated that a payout of the reserved capital would not fundamentally change their general view or approach to leverage, though it would be a factor in managing asset composition.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods followed up on the updated return potential, asking if the estimated $0.03 increase applied to both the high and low ends of the range. He also inquired about the company's comfort level with the current dividend.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Nick Letica confirmed that the estimated $0.03 increase in return potential applies to both the high and low ends of the projected range. He also affirmed the company's confidence in its ability to support the dividend at current levels, citing the benefit of wider spreads and the current portfolio composition.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods questioned the reasons behind the significantly wider range for the static return on common equity and sought clarification on where the current return profile stands.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Nicholas Letica attributed the wider range to increased variability in prepayment expectations and repo funding rates. He confirmed that with the recent rise in rates and spread widening, the current return profile is moving back towards, and potentially even wider than, the previous quarter's levels, making mortgage spreads look very attractive.

Bose George followed up on the gain on sale margin, specifically for the retail channel, asking how much of the Q4 2025 improvement over Q3 2025 was due to mix versus an apples-to-apples improvement by product type. He also questioned how Rithm Capital's wholesale channel volumes and margins increased despite intense competition.

Answer

Baron Silverstein, President and COO of Newrez, attributed the retail channel improvement to a mix shift, with correspondent share decreasing and consumer direct production increasing, alongside disciplined margin maintenance and timing of accruals. For the wholesale channel, Baron Silverstein and Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, CEO and President of Rithm Capital, explained that the growth was driven by a focus on non-agency production and maintaining disciplined margins, leveraging their expertise in the asset-based finance (ABF) space.

Bose George followed up on the gain on sale margin for the retail channel, asking if the Q4 improvement was due to mix or an apples-to-apples product type improvement. He also questioned how Newrez's wholesale volumes and margins increased despite intense competition.

Answer

Baron Silverstein (President and COO, Newrez) attributed the retail channel improvement to mix, noting a shift in correspondent share and disciplined margin maintenance. Michael Nierenberg (Chairman, CEO and President, Rithm Capital) emphasized Rithm Capital's focus on non-agency production, particularly in the asset-based finance (ABF) space, which provides a competitive edge through direct origination and servicing, while maintaining credit discipline.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the potential for a separate listing of NewRez, strategies for unlocking shareholder value, and M&A plans within the insurance sector, including the role of Rithm's SPAC.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Michael Nierenberg explained that a separate NewRez listing is not imminent, as the current focus is on organic growth and increasing earnings. He stated that value creation will be driven by scaling the asset management business through bolt-on acquisitions in credit and insurance. Nierenberg clarified that any insurance M&A would likely occur at the Rithm level, starting with a smaller, scalable platform rather than through the SPAC.

Bose George from KBW inquired about the potential timing for a separate listing of NewRez and other strategies to unlock shareholder value, referencing the sum-of-the-parts analysis. He also asked for an update on M&A in the insurance sector and the potential role of Rithm's SPAC.

Answer

Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, President & CEO, stated that a separate listing for NewRez is not planned for today, as the immediate focus is on growing the business's earnings and third-party servicing footprint. He emphasized that growing the asset management business is the primary driver for unlocking value and that Rithm is actively pursuing M&A in credit and insurance, though with valuation discipline. He added that any insurance acquisition would likely be a smaller platform to grow from the Rithm level.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked for updated thoughts on the potential listing of Newrez in 2025 and how that ties into Rithm's broader plans for capital structure changes.

Answer

Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, CEO, and President, explained that while a Newrez listing isn't imminent, preparatory steps like separate segment reporting are complete. He stated the goal is to restructure into a C-corp with a dedicated REIT and operating companies below to unlock shareholder value, expressing a hope to achieve this in 2025 to address the company's undervaluation. He also noted that any potential SPAC would be a Rithm company designed to create more fee-earning businesses.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. inquired about the timeline for a potential listing of Newrez and its connection to Rithm's broader capital structure changes, including a potential C-corp conversion. He also asked if a discussed SPAC would be part of Sculptor.

Answer

Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, CEO, and President, explained that while a Newrez listing is a goal, the company is "not there yet" and must first grow the scale of its REIT. He hopes to achieve the C-corp structure in 2025 but gave no firm timeline. He clarified that any potential SPAC would be a Rithm company, not part of Sculptor, to create new fee-earning businesses.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about Rithm Capital's latest thoughts on listing its mortgage subsidiary, Newrez, as a separate public company to unlock sum-of-the-parts value, and also requested an update on the company's book value for October.

Answer

Chairman, CEO, and President Michael Nierenberg stated that a potential public listing for Newrez is being evaluated as a way to address the company's equity valuation, suggesting it would likely be a 2025 event. He also confirmed that the company's book value was approximately $12.50 per share as of October.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about Rithm Capital's latest thoughts on potentially listing its mortgage subsidiary, Newrez, as a way to realize its sum-of-the-parts valuation. He also requested an update on the company's book value for October.

Answer

Chairman, CEO, and President Michael Nierenberg responded that a public listing for Newrez is more likely a 2025 event as the company continues to evaluate its options, including M&A. He also confirmed that the current book value is approximately $12.50 per share.

Bose George inquired about the competitive landscape in the non-Agency production space and the expected trend for equity allocation to non-Agency securitization by year-end.

Answer

David Spector, Chairman and CEO, noted healthy competition in the jumbo side from Rocket Mortgage and UWM, with Redwood Trust also active occasionally, but limited bank competition. Daniel Perotti, CFO and Senior Managing Director, stated that the weighted average allocation for non-Agency securitization is 9% for the next 12 months, expecting it to trend to 11-12% by year-end. David Spector added that PMT balances investment returns with aggregation risk when holding loans until securitization, aiming to manage this risk while exploring solutions to grow production without increasing pipeline risk significantly.

Bose George from KBW asked about the competitive landscape in the non-agency production space and the expected trend for equity allocation to non-agency securitization by year-end.

Answer

David Spector, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, identified Rocket Mortgage, UWM, and Redwood Trust as key competitors in the jumbo market, noting limited bank competition. Daniel Perotti, Chief Financial Officer, stated the average equity allocation to non-agency securitization for the next 12 months is 9%, projecting 11-12% by year-end. Spector added that the company balances attractive returns with aggregation risk in securitization.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) requested a breakdown of the drivers behind the increase in the run-rate ROE forecast, particularly the contribution from interest rate-sensitive strategies.

Answer

Daniel Perotti, Senior MD & CFO, clarified that the run-rate ROE increase was driven by multiple factors. These include retaining non-agency senior and IO MBS (contributing to the interest rate-sensitive strategies), an improved outlook for volumes and margins in correspondent production, and additional investments in high-return non-agency subordinate MBS (contributing to the credit-sensitive strategies).

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the increase in the company's run-rate ROE, noting that the change appeared to be concentrated in the interest rate sensitive strategies.

Answer

CFO Daniel Perotti clarified that the increase was driven by multiple factors. The net interest rate sensitive strategies benefited from retaining senior and IO MBS from securitizations. The correspondent production segment's outlook improved due to higher expected volumes and margins. Additionally, new investments in non-agency subordinate MBS, which are part of the credit sensitive strategies, also provided a positive contribution to the overall run-rate return potential.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the impact of recent rate movements on PMT's book value and expected ROE, and also asked if the updated agreement with PFSI implies a larger percentage of loan acquisitions for PMT later in the year.

Answer

EVP & CFO Daniel Perotti reported a 2-3% post-quarter book value decline due to rate volatility and spread widening, noting that hedging has contained the impact and the current run-rate ROE reflects these conditions. Chairman & CEO David Spector emphasized the stability provided by their non-mark-to-market CRT financing. Perotti then clarified that PMT does not necessarily expect to increase its proportion of loan acquisitions, as the current focus is on deploying capital into credit-sensitive strategies rather than creating more MSRs.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about the impact of yield curve steepening on the run rate outlook and for a comparison of the MSR hedging strategies between PMT and PFSI.

Answer

Executive Daniel Perotti explained that the overall steepness of the yield curve benefits the interest rate-sensitive strategies, regardless of whether the long end rises or the short end falls. He also clarified that PMT generally employs a tighter MSR hedge than PFSI due to its portfolio's higher concentration of lower note rate loans and receiving a smaller share of recapture benefits.

Bose George from KBW asked if PMT is agnostic to how the yield curve steepens and inquired about the returns on jumbo loans being sold versus securitized. He also asked for color on the types of buyers in the whole loan market for jumbos and second liens.

Answer

Executive Daniel Perotti confirmed PMT is fairly agnostic to how the curve steepens, as the key driver is the spread between long-term asset yields and short-term financing rates. Executive David Spector noted that jumbo securitization returns are approaching their targets but are not there yet. He described the whole loan buyer base as deep and diverse, consisting of non-bank entities like insurance companies and private equity-backed conduits, but not traditional banks.

Bose George asked if the current industry dynamics, where increased originations don't fully offset MSR runoff due to competitive margins, represent a structural change, and inquired about the drivers of correspondent channel competition. He also asked about the specific areas of increased prepayments and unexpected margin offsets.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Spector stated he was not ready to declare it a structural change, attributing the current situation to market participants anticipating rate declines and building capacity. He noted that technology makes refinancing easier, leading to a focus on revenue per loan and net income per loan rather than just gross margin. Spector identified GSE cash windows as the primary driver of conventional correspondent competition and aggressive market participants for government loans. He explained that increased prepayments and margin offsets were broad, highlighting higher-strip Ginnie Mae servicing and intense competition on conventional higher-balance products, partly from trigger leads.

Bose George asked about the trend in PennyMac Financial's rate locks during the early fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, and sought clarification on margin trends across the consumer direct, correspondent, and broker direct channels, specifically inquiring about the reasons for consumer direct margin fluctuations.

Answer

CFO Dan Perotti noted a positive trajectory in Q4 rate locks, with an uptick across all channels, particularly in direct lending and consumer direct due to lower rates driving refinance volume. Chairman and CEO David Spector added that August and September locks funding out should increase bulk production in correspondent. Dan Perotti further clarified that consumer direct margins were down due to a product mix shift towards higher-balance first-lien refinances (lower basis points but higher revenue per loan), while correspondent margins increased due to margin discipline, and broker direct continued strong growth and momentum.

Bose George asked about the trend in rate locks during the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, and sought color on margin trends across PennyMac Financial's different channels, particularly the consumer direct, correspondent, and broker direct segments.

Answer

Dan Perotti, CFO, and David Spector, Chairman and CEO, reported an uptick in Q4 volumes across all channels, especially in direct lending and consumer direct due to lower rates, indicating a positive trajectory. Dan Perotti clarified that the consumer direct margin decline was a mix issue (first lien refi vs. second lien), while correspondent margins increased due to discipline, and broker direct continued its positive momentum.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the expected run-rate for servicing portfolio profitability in basis points and the drivers behind the cross-channel volatility figure.

Answer

CFO Daniel Perotti stated that Q2's servicing profitability was lower due to some quarter-specific items and expects it to return to the 9-10 basis point range seen in prior quarters, driven by normalization in amortization and other expenses. He clarified that the cross-channel volatility was primarily due to spread volatility in non-agency and other loan products during the quarter.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. questioned if the MSR hedge ratio range of 60-100% implies a long-term divergence between GAAP and operating ROE. He also asked about the risk to the industry's $2 trillion volume forecast if rates stay high.

Answer

Executive Daniel Perotti clarified that the hedge ratio is dynamic; it's lower when production income is more rate-sensitive, which can lead to positive or negative GAAP impacts depending on rate direction. He stated that the long-term relationship between GAAP and operating ROE depends on the yield curve and volatility. Perotti also agreed that reaching the $2 trillion market forecast would likely require episodic refinance volume driven by rate volatility.

Bose George inquired about PFSI's strategies for its direct-to-consumer channel, specifically asking if there are plans to market to consumers outside of its existing servicing portfolio.

Answer

Executive David Spector confirmed that new customer acquisition is a major strategic focus for 2025. He indicated that the company is making a significant commitment to building the PennyMac brand and will be making a series of related announcements in the coming quarter, including direct marketing for purchase transactions.

Bose George asked about the MSR hedge performance relative to expectations, noting the coverage level was near 80% despite recent targets for higher levels. He also questioned if targeted operating ROE should converge with GAAP ROE over time.

Answer

Daniel Perotti (executive) clarified that the hedge covered 78% of the MSR value change, which was in line with their adjusted target of 80-90%. He attributed elevated hedge costs in Q3 to rate volatility and the inverted yield curve, noting costs have since normalized. He stated that over longer periods, GAAP ROE and operating ROE should converge closely, though GAAP ROE may remain slightly lower due to some persistent hedge costs.

Bose George asked for an update on mark-to-market book values and inquired about blended ROEs on the portfolio given recent spread tightening, seeking insight into the comfort level with the 2026 dividend.

Answer

David Finkelstein, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, stated that book value was up 4% (3% net of dividend accrual) as of Tuesday, slightly higher after yesterday. He also noted that overall portfolio returns could still achieve mid-teens, expressing confidence in the dividend's safety and expectation to out-earn it in Q1.

Bose George asked for an update on mark-to-market book values and inquired about the blended ROEs on the portfolio given spread tightening, as well as the company's comfort level with the dividend in 2026.

Answer

David Finkelstein, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, reported that the mark-to-market book value was up 4% (3% net of dividend accrual) as of Tuesday. He stated that overall portfolio returns could still achieve upwards of mid-teens, expressing confidence in the swaps market as a hedge and the durability of RESI market returns. He noted MSR returns were lighter but offered hedging and diversification benefits. Finkelstein concluded that the dividend is safe, having been out-earned in Q4 and expected to be out-earned in Q1.

Bose George inquired about Annaly's capital allocation strategy, specifically comparing agency returns with other investment areas given tighter spreads, and asked about the MSR bulk supply and pricing trends.

Answer

David Finkelstein, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, highlighted agency's continued attractiveness due to improved fundamentals and technicals, while expressing a desire to increase residential credit and MSR weightings. Ken Adler, Head of Mortgage Servicing Rights, noted that bulk MSR supply is increasing from new large participants with stable pricing.

Bose Thomas George asked about the agency portfolio's economic return compared to other investment areas, and the outlook for MSR bulk supply and pricing.

Answer

David Finkelstein, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, stated that while agency remains attractive, Annaly aims to increase residential credit and MSR weightings. Ken Adler, Head of Mortgage Servicing Rights, noted that MSR bulk supply is increasing from large participants, with pricing remaining relatively stable.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about Annaly's quarter-to-date book value performance and the management's comfort level with the current dividend in relation to the portfolio's economic return.

Answer

CEO & Co-CIO David Finkelstein reported that book value was up approximately 0.5% quarter-to-date, resulting in a 1.5% economic return. He affirmed confidence in the dividend, noting that the company has consistently out-earned it and expects to continue doing so. Finkelstein explained the goal is for the economic return to approximate the dividend yield, and he feels good about the current environment's potential to achieve this.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about Annaly's quarter-to-date book value and the management's confidence in the current dividend level.

Answer

CEO David Finkelstein reported that book value was up approximately 0.5% quarter-to-date. He affirmed the company's confidence in the dividend, stating they have out-earned it and expect to continue covering it for the remainder of the year, with the portfolio's economic return goal being to approximate the dividend yield.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about Annaly's outlook for mortgage-backed securities spreads, the influence of the swap market, and the potential impact of regulatory changes like the bank SLR.

Answer

CEO David Finkelstein explained that swap spreads have tightened due to a flight to quality amid volatility, but he anticipates they will normalize and widen as market confidence returns. He also noted that expected regulatory reforms, such as changes to the SLR and Basel endgame, should serve as a tailwind for swap spread widening in the coming quarters, which would be beneficial.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about Annaly's outlook for mortgage-backed securities spreads, the influence of the swap market, and the potential impact of regulatory changes like the bank SLR.

Answer

CEO David Finkelstein explained that MBS spread widening relative to swaps was driven by market volatility and a flight to quality. He anticipates swap spreads will widen as volatility subsides and noted that expected regulatory reforms, such as changes to the SLR and Basel endgame, should provide a tailwind for the market in the coming quarters.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the sustainability of Annaly's strong Q4 earnings, asking if the $0.72 EAD represents a new normalized return level and seeking an update on the dividend's security.

Answer

CEO David Finkelstein confirmed that the current earnings level is in line with the portfolio's potential, supported by current spreads and lower expenses. He suggested Q1 2025 earnings would be comparable and expressed confidence that the dividend is well-covered and feels safe for 2025, pending quarterly board review.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired if the fourth quarter's $0.72 Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) represents a new normalized economic return and asked about the dividend's sustainability given the strong earnings.

Answer

CEO David Finkelstein confirmed that the current earnings level is reasonably contextual given stable spreads and lower expenses, and he anticipates Q1 earnings will be similar. He also expressed confidence that the dividend is safe for 2025, noting the board's rigorous quarterly evaluation process and an optimistic outlook.

Bose George inquired about the current mortgage spread environment compared to the fourth quarter and sought clarification on dividend coverage given tighter spreads and increased capital.

Answer

Peter Federico, President, CEO, and CIO, explained that mortgage spreads have entered a new range, with current coupon spreads to swaps in the 120-160 basis point range and to Treasuries in the 90-130 basis point range, leading to expected ROEs of 13%-15%. Bernie Bell, EVP and CFO, added that the existing portfolio's normalized net spread and dollar roll income of $0.35 per share (adjusted for a $0.01 non-recurring expense) translates to an ROE of 16%, aligning well with the total cost of capital of 15.8%. Peter Federico further clarified that new capital deployment returns (13%-15%) exceed the dividend yield (12%), indicating ample coverage.

Bose George asked about the current spread environment for mortgages, how it compares to the fourth quarter, and sought clarification on AGNC's dividend coverage, considering both existing and incremental portfolio returns.

Answer

Peter Federico and Bernie Bell explained that mortgage spreads have entered a new range, with current coupon spreads to swaps potentially in the 120-160 bps range and to Treasuries in the 90-130 bps range. They projected returns of 13%-15% at current spreads. They clarified that the existing portfolio's ROE (around 16%) aligns well with the total cost of capital (15.8%), providing strong dividend coverage. Incremental capital returns (13%-15%) also exceed the stock's dividend yield (around 12%), ensuring ample coverage from that perspective. They noted that dividend sustainability is a long-term consideration, influenced by portfolio runoff, repositioning, capital growth, market dynamics, leverage, hedge mix, and taxable income requirements.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the appropriate balance between swap and treasury hedges and whether the decline in lifetime CPR was due to rate expectations.

Answer

Peter Federico, President, CEO & CIO, confirmed that a 50/50 blend of swap and treasury hedges is the right long-term mix, though they are currently overweight swaps to benefit from expected spread widening. He also affirmed that the decline in the portfolio's lifetime CPR was a direct result of higher forward mortgage rates implied by the steepening of the long end of the yield curve during the quarter.

Bose George asked about AGNC's comfort level with its dividend, requesting an overview of the return on equity (ROE) math given the current mark-to-market book value.

Answer

Peter Federico, President, CEO, and CIO, explained that while the company's total cost of capital has risen to about 18% due to the book value decline, the go-forward expected returns on the portfolio are now between 19% and 22%. He stated that these higher expected returns, driven by historically wide mortgage spreads, align well with the cost of capital, supporting the dividend.

Bose George inquired about the potential scale of equity issuance for the upcoming year and the conceptual limits of AGNC's balance sheet. He also requested a detailed explanation of the return on equity (ROE) calculation when funding with treasury futures versus interest rate swaps.

Answer

Peter Federico, Director, President and CEO, explained that equity issuance is opportunistic, driven by accretion benefits for existing shareholders rather than a goal of growth for its own sake. He detailed that while treasury-based hedges currently offer better market value protection due to tight swap spreads, a future rotation back to swap-based hedges could increase carry and ROE, assuming swap spreads stabilize.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about AGNC's recent changes to its hedge portfolio, asking if the shift to longer-term instruments was intended to position for a steepening yield curve. He also asked about the long-term convergence of core earnings with economic returns.

Answer

Peter Federico, President and CEO, confirmed the hedge repositioning is designed to benefit from expected yield curve steepening, with nearly 80% of hedges now 7 years or longer. He affirmed that core earnings should align with long-run economic returns over time, explaining that the recent decline in net spread income was due to maturing low-cost swaps and a strategic shift to treasury-based hedges, whose positive carry is not captured in that specific metric.

Bose George asked whether future returns would primarily come from further spread tightening or a stable dividend due to muted volatility. He also inquired about the company's expectations once the GSEs approach their $200 billion cap and their longer-term role in the market.

Answer

T.J. Connelly, CIO, indicated a strong case for returning to a tighter spread regime, similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s, supported by the GSE backstop, which allows investors to take more risks. He noted that standalone ROEs and the yield profile remain compelling, with potential for significant spread tightening. Regarding the GSE cap, T.J. Connelly suggested that the $200 billion cap might not be strict, as the FHFA's focus on mortgage spreads indicates a unique environment, and the cap could be easily changed by the FHFA and/or Treasury.

Bose George inquired about the potential for future upside from spread tightening versus stable dividends, and the longer-term role of the GSEs in the market, particularly beyond the $200 billion cap.

Answer

T.J. Connelly, Chief Investment Officer, suggested there's a strong case for a return to a tighter spread regime, similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s, due to government backstop and support, allowing investors to take more risk. He noted that the current ROEs are compelling on a standalone basis, with potential for significant spread tightening. Connelly also stated that the $200 billion cap for GSE retained portfolios might not be a hard limit, as it can be easily changed by FHFA and Treasury, indicating a potentially larger and longer-term role for GSEs in the market.

Bose George inquired about the incremental spreads and current Return on Equity (ROE) in Agency RMBS, and how these compare to the ROE implied by Dynex Capital's current dividend. He also asked for an update on the book value quarter-to-date.

Answer

T.J. Connelly, Chief Investment Officer, stated that ROEs in Agency RMBS remain in the high teens net of hedging costs, potentially reaching the mid-20s gross on a large percentage of the coupon stack, at current leverage levels. He also provided an estimated book value of $1,271 net of the dividend accrual as of Friday's close.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about Dynex Capital's target leverage range, the potential for increasing preferred stock in the capital mix, and the quarter-to-date book value performance.

Answer

Co-CEO Smriti Popenoe explained that current leverage reflects a return to a more normal risk environment and that raising common equity above book value is currently the most accretive strategy. CIO T.J. Connelly added that leverage was increased methodically as policy uncertainty lifted and confirmed that book value was nearly unchanged quarter-to-date after accounting for the accrued dividend.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the current state of repo funding, asking for color on costs and availability, and whether recent market volatility has altered Dynex's preference for hedging with treasuries versus swaps.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Terrence Connelly responded that repo funding costs have been remarkably stable, ranging from 15 to 17 basis points over SOFR, with strong availability. He added that swaps are considered a more natural hedge for their mortgage portfolio and that the company is comfortable with its current hedge composition.

Bose George inquired about the drivers behind the portfolio's shift from Treasury futures to interest rate swaps, the potential impact on spreads, and the associated accounting treatment. He also requested an update on the company's book value quarter-to-date.

Answer

CIO Terrence Connelly explained that swap spreads reached levels that adequately compensate for potential fiscal issuance and that the shift could add 200-300 basis points to marginal ROE. CFO Robert Colligan clarified the accounting differences, noting futures gains are amortized on a straight-line basis while swap income follows the swap curve. Co-CEO Smriti Popenoe added that book value was essentially flat quarter-to-date.

Bose George inquired about the key factors Dynex is monitoring before increasing leverage and asked if the switch to interest rate swaps from treasuries captures the full 40 basis point differential in the net interest margin.

Answer

Co-CEO, President, and CIO Smriti Popenoe stated that the decision to increase leverage hinges on navigating near-term event risks like the U.S. election. Post-election, the focus will be on the macro environment and marginal ROEs. She confirmed the hedge switch to swaps does capture the 40 bps differential, which also allows Dynex to lock in favorable forward financing costs, a key factor supporting the recent dividend increase.

Bose George asked if the current level of seeded premiums is sustainable or subject to fluctuation, and later inquired about the drivers behind the higher tax rate and the expected rate for the next 12 months.

Answer

David Weinstock, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that seeded premiums fluctuate seasonally with default activity. Mark Casale, Chairman and CEO, added that the increased quota share (25%) contributes to volatility. Regarding the tax rate, Mr. Casale attributed the increase to tax friction from capital distribution to shareholders, projecting a rate of 16% or slightly higher, emphasizing the value of share repurchases despite the tax impact.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods questioned whether the recent pace of share buybacks was opportunistic or indicative of a change in capital strategy. He also requested the specific dollar amount of repurchases during the second quarter.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Casale explained the buybacks are both opportunistic, based on a valuation-sensitive grid, and a strategic response to the significant buildup of excess capital. He emphasized the stock's valuation doesn't reflect the company's embedded value. CFO David Weinstock specified that Essent repurchased 3 million shares for $171 million in the second quarter.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked for a breakdown of share buybacks between Q1 and April, and sought clarification on the tax implications of increasing the ceding percentage to Essent Re in Bermuda, particularly regarding the tax rate after 2030.

Answer

CFO David Weinstock provided the buyback figures: $157 million in Q1 and $61 million in April. He also confirmed that Essent Re's tax exemption in Bermuda expires in 2030, at which point the company expects to pay a 15% tax on earnings there. Chairman and CEO Mark Casale added that a key driver for increasing the ceding percentage was to improve the efficiency of moving cash to the holding company, not solely for tax benefits.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the 2025 outlook for Essent's title business, the drivers of Q4's higher provisions, the nature of reported hurricane-related defaults, 2025 expense guidance, and investment portfolio yield trends.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Casale expects the title business results in 2025 to be similar to 2024, viewing the cost as an 'option cost' for a future rate-driven rebound, and attributed the Q4 provision increase to cleanup from a prior acquisition. He confirmed hurricane defaults were in the quarter-end inventory and noted that while overall expenses should be 'relatively flattish,' guidance will change with new segment reporting. He also explained the investment portfolio is being repositioned, causing a temporary yield fluctuation.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods questioned how growing average loan sizes are impacting the provision for losses and asked how the company would provision for hurricane-related notices that are likely excluded from claims.

Answer

David Weinstock, CFO, confirmed that larger loan sizes directly impact the dollar amount of the provision. Mark Casale, Chairman and CEO, added that the average loan size has increased significantly, which will eventually also drive portfolio growth. Regarding hurricanes, Casale stated they will assess the defaults once they come in before deciding on provisioning, referencing the approach taken in 2017 where 99% of similar defaults cured.

Bose George of KBW inquired about the projected mid-teens operating earnings per share accretion and 200 basis points of ROE accretion for 2026, specifically asking if adding 200 basis points to the current 13% ROE, resulting in 15% on a $35 book value, was a reasonable expectation. He also asked about the potential capital benefits from utilizing unearned premiums at Radian as capital for Inigo and if this could lead to further accretion.

Answer

Sumita Pandit, President and CFO of Radian Group, clarified that the 200 basis points increase should be added to the operating ROE of 13.9% reported for the quarter, noting that the current ROE might be slightly lower due to paused share repurchases and capital accrual for Inigo. She stated that the company plans to provide more details on potential capital synergies, such as reinsurance opportunities between the MI business and Inigo, at an investor day early next year, which could further improve accretion numbers beyond the base case assumptions.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for the magnitude of the mark-to-market losses on loans held for sale in the 'All Other' segment. He also questioned the timeline for this segment to achieve breakeven and what strategic actions could accelerate that process.

Answer

CEO Rick Thornberry clarified that the increased loss in the 'All Other' segment was primarily driven by the mortgage conduit business, which experienced a $9 million negative impact from mark-to-market adjustments and spread volatility. He also announced a decision to discontinue investment in the real estate technology part of the former HomeGenius business. While the title business is seeing some growth, Rick Thornberry noted that the segment's volatility comes from the conduit business and that the team is actively working to find avenues for growth and positive contribution.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for the magnitude of the mark-to-market losses on loans held for sale within the 'All Other' segment. He also questioned the timeline to reach breakeven for the segment and potential strategic actions to accelerate it.

Answer

CEO Rick Thornberry explained that the mortgage conduit business was the primary driver of the segment's loss, with an impact of approximately $9 million in the quarter due to spread volatility and mark-to-market adjustments on a growing portfolio. He also noted the company decided to discontinue investment in its real estate technology business. While not providing a specific breakeven timeline, he mentioned the title business saw revenue growth and that the team is focused on achieving a positive contribution from the remaining businesses.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for the magnitude of the mark-to-market losses on loans held for sale that impacted the 'All Other' segment. He also questioned the timeline for this segment to reach breakeven and any potential strategic actions to accelerate profitability.

Answer

CEO Rick Thornberry explained that the 'All Other' segment's increased loss was primarily driven by the mortgage conduit business. He specified a $9 million negative impact from mark-to-market adjustments on a growing loan pipeline and higher related expenses. He also noted that Radian decided in Q2 to discontinue investment in the real estate technology business, previously part of the HomeGenius segment, and that the title and real estate services businesses were relatively stable.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for the size of the mark-to-market loss in the "All Other" segment and inquired about the path to profitability for the businesses within that segment.

Answer

CEO Rick Thornberry clarified that the increased loss in the "All Other" segment was primarily driven by the mortgage conduit business, which experienced a negative mark-to-market impact of approximately $9 million due to spread volatility. He noted that the company has decided to discontinue investment in its real estate technology platform. He added that the title business saw revenue growth, and the segment's volatility was not from the title or real estate services operations.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for the magnitude of the mark-to-market losses on loans held for sale that affected the 'All Other' segment. He also questioned the timeline for this segment to reach breakeven and any potential strategic actions to accelerate profitability.

Answer

CEO Rick Thornberry explained that the 'All Other' segment's results were impacted by about $9 million from mark-to-market spread volatility in the mortgage conduit business. He also noted the decision to discontinue investment in the real estate tech platform. Mr. Thornberry mentioned that while the title business saw some growth, the segment's volatility was primarily from the conduit business and a $4 million inter-company accounting reclassification. He stated the team is focused on finding growth and positive contribution, with more updates to come.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for the specific magnitude of the mark-to-market losses on loans held for sale that contributed to the loss in the 'All Other' segment. He also questioned the timeline for this segment to achieve breakeven and what strategic actions could be taken to accelerate it.

Answer

CEO Rick Thornberry clarified that the increased loss in the 'All Other' segment was primarily due to a $9 million negative impact from mark-to-market volatility on interest-only instruments within the mortgage conduit business. He also announced a decision to discontinue investment in the real estate technology platform, formerly part of HomeGenius. Thornberry noted that while the title business grew, the segment's volatility came from the conduit business and a $4 million inter-company accounting reclassification, not the core real estate services. He indicated that future strategic plans for the segment are still being developed.

Bose George asked for clarification on the expected pace of share buybacks in the second quarter and the company's broader philosophy on capital return and payout ratios. He also inquired about the level of embedded equity in new delinquencies.

Answer

President and CFO Sumita Pandit confirmed an accelerated pace of buybacks in Q1 ($207 million) and expects a similar level in Q2, citing the stock's attractive valuation and ample holding company liquidity. CEO Richard Thornberry highlighted Radian's consistent track record, having repurchased 39% of shares over 7 years. Ms. Pandit noted that while there is no formal payout ratio guidance, up to $795 million in distributions can move from the insurance subsidiary to the parent company in 2025. She also confirmed that approximately 75% of new defaults have more than 20% equity.

Bose George asked about Radian's financial leverage targets following its recent debt redemption and inquired how capital returns might correlate with the company's contingency reserve releases.

Answer

CFO Sumita Pandit explained that the leverage reduction was a strategic use of excess liquidity and the company is comfortable with its current leverage level, which organically delevers over time. Regarding capital returns, she highlighted the strong dividend capacity from Radian Guaranty but refrained from setting a specific payout target, instead pointing to the company's consistent track record of returning capital to shareholders.

Bose George from KBW inquired about Farmer Mac's outlook for net effective spread (NES), considering the anticipated business mix and the forward interest rate curve, particularly with expected Fed rate cuts. He also asked about the consistency of credit provisions given the growth in new business lines.

Answer

Bradford T. Nordholm, CEO of Farmer Mac, clarified that the company's match-funded asset-liability management strategy makes its net effective spread largely neutral to changes in interest rates. Zach Carpenter, President and COO, added that NES is driven by risk-adjusted returns, with strong growth in higher-spread infrastructure finance (broadband, renewable energy) contributing positively. He noted stable to accretive spreads in these sectors, a slight seasonal decrease in farm and ranch due to prepayments and non-accruals, and a prudent approach to AgVantage due to tight credit spreads. Regarding credit provisions, Mr. Nordholm stated that the current provision is very low, tends to be episodic rather than systemic, and reflects specific issues like California water policy, with no expectation for a significant jump in the near future.

Bose George from KBW asked about the outlook for Farmer Mac's net effective spread, considering the expected business mix and the forward curve's implications for Fed rate cuts, and subsequently inquired about the reasonable level for credit provisions given the growth in new business lines.

Answer

Bradford T. Nordholm, CEO of Farmer Mac, clarified that the company's match-funded asset-liability management strategy renders its net effective spread largely neutral to Fed interest rate changes. Zach Carpenter, President and COO, added that the focus on risk-adjusted returns, particularly strong growth in higher-spread infrastructure finance segments like broadband and renewable energy, is driving accretive spreads. He noted a slight seasonal decrease in farm and ranch spreads due to prepayments and non-accruals, and a selective approach to AgVantage securities due to tight investment-grade credit spreads. Regarding credit provisions, Mr. Nordholm stated that the current low, seven-figure provision is typical and reflects episodic events, such as specific California groundwater regulation impacts, rather than systemic risks, with no expectation for a significant increase next quarter.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the outlook for net effective spread, noting its recent strength despite previous expectations for a decline, and asked about the specific drivers of the spread increase within the Farm and Ranch segment. He also sought clarification on the accounting treatment for the renewable energy tax credit purchase and its associated legal costs.

Answer

Executive VP & Chief Business Officer, Zachary Carpenter, explained that the spread strength in the Farm and Ranch segment was due to a mix shift, with strong growth in higher-spread loan purchases outpacing maturities in the lower-spread AgVantage product. President & CEO, Bradford Nordholm, added that the overall spread outlook is a balance between growth in new, higher-spread business lines and the timing of AgVantage bond activity. VP & Chief Accounting Officer, Gregory Ramsey, clarified that the tax credit benefit flows through as a reduction to tax expense, while the related legal fees are included in operating expenses.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the outlook for net effective spread, noting its recent strength, and specifically asked about the drivers for the spread increase within the Farm and Ranch segment. He also asked for clarification on how the renewable energy tax credit purchase impacts the financial statements and where the associated legal costs are recorded.

Answer

Executive VP & Chief Business Officer Zachary Carpenter attributed the Farm and Ranch spread increase to a mix shift, with strong growth in higher-spread loan purchases outpacing lower-spread AgVantage maturities. President & CEO Bradford Nordholm added that the overall spread outlook is a balance between growth in newer, higher-spread segments and the timing of lower-spread AgVantage bond draws, suggesting the current level is a reasonable baseline. VP & Chief Accounting Officer Gregory Ramsey explained the tax credit benefit reduces the tax expense, lowering the effective tax rate, while the related legal fees are recorded within operating expenses.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the outlook for net effective spread, which has remained strong, and specifically asked about the drivers behind the spread increase in the Farm and Ranch segment. He also asked for clarification on how the $3.2 million renewable energy tax credit benefit is reflected in the financial statements and where the associated legal costs are recorded.

Answer

Executive VP & Chief Business Officer, Zachary Carpenter, attributed the Farm and Ranch spread increase to a mix shift, with higher-spread loan purchases outpacing lower-spread AgVantage maturities. President & CEO, Bradford Nordholm, added that the overall spread outlook is a contest between growth in new, higher-spread segments and the potential for lower-spread AgVantage bonds to materialize, suggesting current levels are a reasonable baseline. VP & Chief Accounting Officer, Gregory Ramsey, confirmed the tax credit benefit reduces the tax expense, lowering the effective tax rate, and that related legal fees are included in operating expenses.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the net effective spread outlook, the drivers behind its recent strength, and the accounting treatment for the renewable energy tax credits and associated legal fees.

Answer

Executive VP & Chief Business Officer Zachary Carpenter attributed the spread strength to a favorable business mix, with growth in higher-spread loan purchases and new segments outpacing lower-spread AgVantage maturities. President & CEO Bradford Nordholm added that this trend is expected to continue. VP & Chief Accounting Officer Gregory Ramsey clarified that the tax credit benefit reduces the tax expense and the related legal fees are included in operating expenses.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the net effective spread outlook, the reasons for its recent strength, and the specific drivers of spread expansion in the Farm and Ranch segment. He also sought clarification on the accounting treatment for the renewable energy tax credit and associated legal expenses.

Answer

Executive VP & Chief Business Officer Zachary Carpenter explained that the spread strength was due to a mix shift towards higher-spread loan purchases in the Farm and Ranch segment and faster growth in newer, more accretive segments like infrastructure finance. He noted that a decline in lower-spread AgVantage balances also contributed. President & CEO Bradford Nordholm added that the outlook depends on a "contest" between growth in high-spread new segments and the timing of lower-spread AgVantage draws. VP & Chief Accounting Officer Gregory Ramsey clarified that the tax credit benefit reduces the tax expense, lowering the effective tax rate, and confirmed the related legal fees are included in operating expenses.

Bose George inquired about the significant increase in the Return on Equity (ROE) for the Farm & Ranch segment, which seemed disproportionate to the slight spread increase. He also asked about funding cost dynamics amid market volatility and the expected economics of the upcoming securitization transaction.

Answer

CFO Aparna Ramesh clarified that the primary driver for the higher ROE in the Farm & Ranch segment was a reduction in nonaccrual loan activity compared to the previous quarter. Regarding funding, she explained that the company opportunistically locked in lower funding costs in Q1 when SOFR spreads were narrow, which provides a buffer against current market volatility. While not predicting the economics of the next securitization, she noted continued strong investor appetite for the asset class.

Bose George of KBW inquired about the outlook for net effective spreads, the potential credit impact from shifting to higher-spread products, and risks to the renewable energy business from political changes.

Answer

CEO Bradford Nordholm and CFO Aparna Ramesh detailed how a mix shift and hedging strategies should support the net effective spread, noting it would likely remain flat even with a 100bps rate shock. On credit, management emphasized that recent issues are idiosyncratic, not systemic, and that loss models automatically adjust for shifts in business mix. Regarding political risk, Nordholm stated that existing renewable project tax credits are locked in and that the company can quickly adapt to any future changes in tax law.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the drivers for the increased yield in the Farm & Ranch segment and the cause of the spread decline in Corporate AgFinance. He also asked about the expected earnings profile if interest rates were to remain range-bound.

Answer

Executive Zachary Carpenter attributed the Farm & Ranch spread increase to a purchased loan pool with accretive spreads and noted the Corporate AgFinance decline was due to a single delinquent loan. CFO Aparna Ramesh added that a reversal of non-accruals also boosted Farm & Ranch spreads and confirmed that earnings are expected to be flat to higher in a range-bound rate environment, thanks to proactive debt management and favorable asset pricing.

Bose George inquired about Redwood Trust's longer-term earnings power, specifically how the non-GAAP core EAD of $0.20 per share, combined with the redeployment of capital from legacy assets, would bridge to future earnings power after the legacy segment winds down. He also asked about the decline in Redwood Investments' non-GAAP EAD ROE.

Answer

CEO Chris Abate confirmed that as the legacy segment winds down, consolidated earnings would align more closely with current core EAD, with redeployed capital generating over 20% ROEs in mortgage banking. CFO Brooke Carillo added that the $400 million capital still in the legacy segment would be redeployed into mortgage banking. Brooke Carillo attributed the decline in Redwood Investments' ROE to lower net interest income from the investment portfolio, primarily due to sales and payoffs of bridge and term loans.

Bose George inquired about Redwood Trust's longer-term earnings power, specifically how the non-GAAP core EAD of $0.20 per share, combined with the redeployment of capital from legacy assets, would bridge to future earnings, and also asked about the decline in Redwood Investments' EAD ROE.

Answer

CEO Chris Abate confirmed that as the legacy segment winds down, consolidated earnings will increasingly reflect the core EAD, with freed-up capital redeployed into mortgage banking segments generating over 20% ROEs. CFO Brooke Carillo added that $400 million of capital from the legacy segment is available for redeployment. Brooke explained the Redwood Investments' EAD ROE decline from 16% to 10% was due to lower net interest income from the investment portfolio, primarily from sales and approximately $400-$450 million in payoffs of bridge and term loans.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for clarification on calculating the 9-12% EAD target for 2026, the rationale for moving home equity investments (HEI) to the legacy portfolio, and whether the Q2 charges sufficiently mark the legacy assets for disposition.

Answer

CFO Brooke Carillo confirmed the 9-12% EAD target is a blended number calculated on the full book value. CEO Christopher Abate explained that moving the HEI portfolio accelerates the company's transition to a capital-light model, allowing them to redeploy appreciated capital into higher-return operating platforms. He added that they "leaned in" on the marks to reflect actionable levels for disposition, driven by a conviction to transition the business model quickly.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the run rate of Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) relative to the dividend, the key drivers for EAD growth, and the expected timeline for EAD to fully cover the dividend payout.

Answer

CFO Brooke Carillo clarified that Q4 EAD was impacted by temporary factors and would have been higher normalized. She identified growing net interest income, lower funding costs, and capital optimization as key future drivers. CEO Christopher Abate affirmed the Board's commitment to the dividend, citing strong liquidity, and stated that based on strong forward-looking volume metrics, they expect EAD and the dividend to converge over the next few quarters.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked for a breakdown of the strong mortgage banking gains to better understand the drivers of EAD growth, and also inquired about the monthly trend in residential lock volumes during the quarter.

Answer

CFO Brooke Carillo attributed roughly half of the mortgage banking revenue outperformance to interest rates, with the remainder split between spread tightening and gain on sale. CEO Christopher Abate noted that lock volumes accelerated through Q3 and that October started strong, with consistent securitization activity supporting healthy margins.

Bose George inquired about the margin impact of the Sequoia and Endpoint programs and the timeline for these platforms to fully integrate, and also asked about the increase in 'default and other' order counts.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton explained that the margin drag from Endpoint and Sequoia is no longer being disclosed as they are integrating into core operations. He highlighted value creation through shutting down old systems, increased productivity, and potential market share gains. Regarding 'default and other' orders, he confirmed an increase in default activity, noting it's not material and includes loss mitigation and alternative products, not just foreclosures.

Bose George asked about the margin impact of the Sequoia and Endpoint programs and the timeline for these costs to roll off, as well as the recent increase in 'default and other' order counts.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton stated that the company would no longer disclose the specific margin drag from Endpoint and Sequoia as they are being integrated into core operations, but reiterated the long-term value creation through system consolidation, productivity gains, and potential market share growth. He acknowledged an increase in 'default and other' activity, primarily loss mitigation, but noted it is not a material part of the business.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods followed up on the margin outlook, asking if the Q3 margin could be similar to Q2's 13.2%, and requested an update on the regulatory front, specifically regarding the FHFA title pilot program.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton responded that the Q3 margin will be highly dependent on the strength of the commercial business, and while it's possible to approach Q2's level, it is not the current expectation. Regarding the FHFA pilot, he described it as a limited-scope program for low-risk refinances that they are monitoring. He confirmed communication with regulators and emphasized that First American is well-positioned with its data and distribution network should the market evolve toward title waivers.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods followed up on margins, asking if the third quarter's margin could be similar to the strong 13.2% achieved in Q2. He also asked for an update on the regulatory front, specifically the FHFA title pilot.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton responded that Q3 margin performance will heavily depend on the strength of the commercial business, and while it's expected to be strong, it is not currently expected to exceed the record level set in Q2. Regarding the FHFA, Seaton confirmed the title waiver pilot is underway with Fannie Mae, limited to low-LTV refinance transactions. He stated that First American is in communication with the FHFA and GSEs and is monitoring the pilot. He emphasized that if the market were to shift towards waivers, First American's unique data assets and distribution network would provide a significant competitive advantage.

Bose George of KBW followed up on the margin outlook, asking if the third quarter margin could be similar to the strong 13.2% achieved in Q2. He also requested an update on the regulatory front, specifically regarding the FHFA title pilot.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton responded that Q3 margin performance will heavily depend on the strength of the commercial business. While a similar margin is possible if commercial results are exceptionally strong again, it is not the company's current expectation. Regarding the FHFA, Seaton confirmed the title waiver pilot is underway with a limited scope for low-LTV refinances. He stated that First American is monitoring the situation, has been in communication with the FHFA, and believes the company is well-positioned with its data and distribution assets if the market were to shift in that direction.

Bose George questioned the margin impact from the Endpoint and Sequoia technology initiatives and asked for elaboration on the costs associated with running both new and legacy systems.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton quantified the margin impact from the initiatives at 130 basis points for the quarter, noting it should narrow as earnings grow. He explained that as these platforms become more integrated, separate disclosure will be less meaningful. He confirmed the company is carrying redundant costs by supporting new platforms alongside legacy systems, but this is a transitional phase. The long-term goal is to decommission older systems, which will reduce costs and enhance productivity.

Bose George followed up on the margin outlook, asking for quantification of the benefit from the strategic portfolio rebalancing and how that fits into the 2025 margin forecast. He also asked about the investment income run rate for 2025.

Answer

CFO Mark Seaton quantified the full-year 2025 pretax income benefit from the portfolio rebalancing at $42 million, which he confirmed equates to roughly 50 basis points of margin. CEO Ken DeGiorgio noted this was a baseline for improvement, with potential for more from cost controls. Seaton explained that while the $42 million benefit is largely offset by a $45 million headwind from Fed rate cuts, they still expect overall investment income to grow year-over-year due to market growth and strategic deposit initiatives.

Bose George inquired about the company's outlook on normalized title margins and the potential for cost savings from technology spend optimization.

Answer

CEO Kenneth DeGiorgio expressed strong conviction for the 2024 margin outlook and expects further improvement in 2025, but deferred providing a new normalized range. He confirmed a significant opportunity to reduce technology spend by centralizing and simplifying operations, such as shifting from third-party contractors to in-house staff, without compromising key innovation projects.

Bose George inquired about the drivers behind the strong growth in agent premiums, specifically asking if Stewart Information Services is gaining market share from larger competitors and what factors are contributing to this expansion.

Answer

CEO Fred Eppinger explained that the growth stems from two main components: significant share shift in 15 targeted states, showing approximately 16.5% growth with both new and existing agents, supported by improved technology. The second driver is robust commercial traction within the agency channel, which grew 40%, particularly benefiting from enhanced service capabilities outside of the New York area. George also asked about the commercial pipeline and investment income. Eppinger expressed confidence in the commercial pipeline, noting broad growth across asset classes, with office not being a significant contributor. CFO David Hisey clarified that investment income variability is due to short-term rate cuts, but balances have largely offset impacts so far.

Bose George inquired about the drivers behind the strong growth in agent premiums, specifically asking if Stewart Information Services is gaining market share from larger competitors and the underlying reasons for this trend. He also asked about the commercial pipeline outlook for year-end and the contribution from the office asset class, as well as the reason for a lower investment income line compared to the previous quarter.

Answer

CEO Fred Eppinger explained that agent premium growth is driven by residential share shift in 15 targeted states (16.5% growth), new agent onboarding, deeper penetration with existing agents, and improved technology and service capabilities across all states. He highlighted significant commercial traction (40% growth in the agency channel), particularly from better service outside of New York. Regarding the commercial pipeline, Mr. Eppinger expressed confidence for the fourth quarter, noting broad growth across asset classes, with office not being a significant contributor, and energy's percentage contribution having normalized. CFO David Hisey clarified that the slight decrease in investment income was due to variability with short-term rate cuts affecting escrow investments, but balances have largely offset these impacts so far.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about Stewart's commercial business pipeline for the second half of 2025, the drivers behind the strong growth in agent premiums versus direct operations, the cause of the decline in the agent retention rate, and the factors contributing to the increase in investment income.

Answer

CEO Fred Eppinger stated he feels good about the commercial pipeline and expects continued growth, though likely not at the 45% rate seen in Q2. He attributed the 25% agency growth to increased resourcing and enhanced commercial capabilities for agents. Eppinger explained the agent retention rate decline is due to geographic mix, particularly lower share in high-split states like Florida. CFO David Heisey and Eppinger noted that higher investment income was driven by reinvesting at higher yields and increased balances, with potential future upside from growth in the commercial business.

In a follow-up, Bose George asked for guidance on the volatile 'other orders' line item and for more detail on the margin improvement trajectory in the Real Estate Solutions segment.

Answer

CEO Frederick Eppinger explained that the 'other orders' line will remain choppy but is expected to be slightly better than the prior year. Regarding Real Estate Solutions margins, Eppinger clarified that a temporary margin dip was caused by a timing issue related to passing on increased credit data costs to clients, a process completed between January and April. He expects margins to normalize back to the low teens (11.5%-12%) for the remainder of the year.

Bose George inquired about Stewart's 2025 outlook for the Commercial segment and the timeline for margin normalization in the Real Estate Solutions business.

Answer

CEO Frederick Eppinger projected low single-digit growth for the Commercial market in 2025, noting current choppiness but continued strength in sectors like data centers. Regarding Real Estate Solutions margins, Eppinger and CFO David Hisey explained that Q4 margins were impacted by temporary startup costs and vendor price increases. They anticipate a rapid improvement as customer contract repricing was actively being implemented, with a full-year cash margin goal of around 13%.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the drivers behind the significant year-over-year increase in the commercial fee per file and the notable ramp-up in the 'other' order count category.

Answer

CEO Frederick Eppinger attributed the higher commercial fee per file to the business mix, specifically larger deals in the alternative energy sector, noting the figure can be volatile. Both Eppinger and CFO David Hisey explained that the increase in 'other' orders was driven by large bulk transactions, such as those in the single-family rental business.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the path to achieving the target leverage ratio and the potential effects of an economic slowdown on the business.

Answer

CEO David Burton explained that leverage is expected to move into the 2.0x-2.5x target range through continued deployment growth, particularly with Q4 being a seasonally strong period. He noted that while a severe economic slowdown could temporarily decrease collections (citing a ~10% dip during the 2008 crisis), it would be a net positive overall by significantly increasing the supply of attractively priced portfolios, leading to higher returns.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked if current deployment plans would be sufficient to reach the company's target leverage ratio of 2.0-2.5x and questioned how an economic slowdown would affect the business.

Answer

CEO David Burton stated that while not providing guidance, Q4 is historically the largest deployment quarter, and long-term deployment growth would move them toward their target leverage. He explained that a recession would be a net positive, citing the 2008 crisis when a manageable 10% dip in liquidations was far outweighed by a massive increase in attractively priced portfolio supply, leading to superior returns in subsequent years.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked how the company anticipates reaching its target leverage ratio of 2.0x to 2.5x, questioning if it requires a ramp-up in deployments or an opportunistic acquisition. He also inquired about the potential impact of an economic slowdown on the existing portfolio and new deployment outlook.

Answer

CEO David Burton explained that while not giving specific guidance, Q4 is historically the largest deployment quarter, and as deployments grow over the long term, they expect to reach the target leverage range. Regarding a slowdown, he referenced the 2008 recession, where a modest short-term decline in liquidations was significantly outweighed by a massive increase in portfolio supply at attractive prices, making a recession a net positive for the business over the medium term.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the outlook for the Longbridge platform if interest rates decline, the potential for originators to shift focus as mortgage volumes change, and the company's forecast for home prices and their impact on credit spreads.

Answer

CEO Laurence Penn explained that lower rates would boost Longbridge's business by increasing the principal borrowers can access, a factor for which they are hedged. Co-CIO Mark Tecotzky added that EFC's affiliated originators are dedicated to Non-QM, unlike larger non-banks that might pivot back to agency loans. Tecotzky also noted that while home price weakness is now more widespread, he expects muted national HPA, and Non-QM credit performance remains well-supported by securitization structures.

Bose George of KBW inquired if the Q4 net interest income and expense levels represent good run rates, and also asked about current ROEs in the Agency space and the specific spread metrics EFC prioritizes.

Answer

CEO Laurence Penn and CFO JR Herlihy confirmed that Q4 net interest income is a good guidepost, noting ongoing liability-side improvements. They also affirmed the expense run rate, with Penn adding context on a one-time item and necessary investments in the loan business. Co-CIO Mark Tecotzky detailed their Agency strategy, emphasizing a focus on Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) and 'pay-up convexity' for specified pools, and the carry from TBA rolls for TBA longs.

Bose George asked about the competitive landscape in the non-QM market, specifically the impact of increased participation from insurance companies. He also questioned the drivers behind the 18% quarterly increase in operating expenses.

Answer

Co-Chief Investment Officer Mark Tecotzky stated that consistent buying from insurance companies has stabilized non-QM loan prices and reduced volatility, creating a different but manageable market dynamic where they are both competitors and clients. CEO Laurence Penn clarified that the rise in operating expenses was primarily due to a one-time, non-recurring event involving the redemption of employee-held options at the Longbridge subsidiary.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the company's MSR hedging strategy for the combined entity post-Mr. Cooper acquisition, given that the recapture rates on the Cooper portfolio will likely be lower.

Answer

CFO Brian Brown stated that the plan is to continue hedging the combined MSR portfolios post-close, consistent with Mr. Cooper's current strategy of around 60-70% coverage. He noted they will re-evaluate this approach as they gather more data on actual recapture synergies. Brown also disclosed that during Q2, Rocket layered on a hedge for its own portfolio to preserve the float earnings component of the MSR value, particularly on low note rate loans.

Bose George asked whether Rocket Companies might explore other acquisitions, particularly in distributed retail, to further grow its purchase market share.

Answer

CEO Varun Krishna responded that the company is currently "absolutely focused" on the critical integrations of Redfin and Mr. Cooper. He emphasized that these two acquisitions are central to the company's purchase strategy by building a top-of-funnel presence and strengthening the recapture flywheel, making their successful integration the primary focus.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the potential cadence of share buybacks and whether the increased activity signaled any change in capital needs for the F&G segment. He also requested the repurchase amount for July.

Answer

CFO Tony Park stated that FNF expects to be active with buybacks, particularly on share price weakness, but does not provide forward guidance. He clarified that the buybacks do not signal a change regarding F&G, as F&G is well-positioned with its own capital sources and FNF does not anticipate providing it with incremental capital. He disclosed that July repurchases were minimal ($5 million) due to the pre-earnings blackout period.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the potential cadence of share buybacks going forward and whether the increased buyback activity signals that incremental capital needs for F&G are complete.

Answer

CFO Tony Park explained that FNF expects to be in the market daily when not in a blackout period and views any share price weakness as a great use of capital. He clarified that the buybacks do not signal anything specific about F&G, other than that FNF does not anticipate needing to provide incremental capital to F&G, which is pursuing a capital-light strategy. Park confirmed FNF's capital priorities remain the common dividend, M&A, and share buybacks.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the expected cadence of share buybacks for the remainder of the year and requested more detail on the headwinds causing lower spreads at F&G and when they might abate.

Answer

CFO Tony Park indicated that share repurchases will occur on a regular, modest daily cadence outside of blackout periods and will likely be stronger than in Q1 due to a late start. F&G CEO Chris Blunt added that pressures on spreads were already abating, citing strong April sales and the deployment of excess cash into attractive investments, with an expectation for improvement going forward.

Bose George asked for an outlook on title margins for 2025, assuming current market trends persist, and requested a margin breakdown by segment.

Answer

CEO Mike Nolan explained that while they don't provide guidance, they would expect better margins in 2025 than 2024 if transactional volume increases, noting the company is well-positioned to drive strong margins with more volume. CFO Tony Park provided a detailed Q4 margin comparison, breaking down the performance of direct operations (23%), agency (7.5%), national commercial (34%), and loan care (23%), all showing significant year-over-year improvement.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the strategic significance of the First Nationwide acquisition for FNF's position in the New York office market. He also inquired about the company's outlook on the post-election regulatory landscape, particularly concerning GSE pilots and CFPB initiatives.

Answer

CEO Mike Nolan described the First Nationwide acquisition as a strategic, though not major, addition of a well-established player in the New York market, providing another brand to build upon as the market recovers. Regarding the post-election landscape, Nolan suggested a Republican administration could lead to a less stringent regulatory environment, which may reduce the impetus for initiatives like the title waiver pilot. However, he emphasized that the company is not taking anything for granted and will continue to advocate for the value of title insurance.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the drivers behind the increased gain on sale margin guidance and whether costs for bringing servicing in-house were already reflected in current operating expenses.

Answer

Chairman, CEO & President Mat Ishbia explained that the margin guidance reflects a deep understanding of current market dynamics rather than a strategic shift. Regarding servicing, he clarified that costs are currently increasing due to the transition and that positive financial impacts and cost savings are expected in 2026, after the project is completed in Q1 2026.

Bose George followed up on the MSR topic, asking if the decision to bring servicing in-house could lead UWM to hold more MSRs to capture additional value. He also asked about the company's perspective on potential GSE reform.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mathew Ishbia confirmed that controlling the servicing process makes retaining more MSRs a more attractive option, but decisions will remain opportunistic based on market conditions. On GSE reform, Ishbia expressed confidence in the current leadership at the FHFA and HUD, stating that UWM is nimble and prepared to adapt and win under any potential changes, though he sees any major reform as being far in the future.

Bose George from KBW followed up on MSRs, asking if the recent debt issuance and strong cash position alter the strategy for MSR sales. He also asked for a framework to think about fixed versus variable expenses when adding significant volume.

Answer

CEO Mathew Ishbia responded that while the balance sheet is a factor, MSR sales decisions are primarily opportunistic and driven by market pricing. He reiterated that UWM's ability to constantly create new MSRs is a key advantage. Regarding expenses, he declined to provide a specific model but emphasized that in a high-volume scenario, the growth in margin and revenue would vastly exceed any related increase in variable costs.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about gain on sale margin trends for the fourth quarter, considering the recent rise in interest rates and seasonality, and also asked about the market traction of ancillary products like TRAC and TRAC+.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mathew Ishbia explained that the Q4 guidance of 85 to 110 basis points reflects the current higher-rate environment. He noted that margins expand when rates drop, as seen in Q3, and that ancillary products are gaining adoption as planned, helping brokers differentiate themselves and adding to the margin.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for characterization of the new partners using Better's technology and inquired about the loan volume required for the Tinman platform's cost efficiencies to significantly impact profitability.

Answer

Founder & CEO Vishal Garg identified partners as next-gen wealth management firms, traditional FinTech lenders expanding into home equity, and large-scale fintechs that missed the last mortgage boom. Regarding profitability, Garg explained that the Tinman AI platform's higher contribution margins are key to reaching breakeven, reducing the reliance on simply scaling the direct-to-consumer (D2C) business, where labor and data costs are already declining due to AI.

Asked if potential clients for the Tinman platform are typically users of legacy systems like Encompass, and whether these clients have concerns about buying technology from a potential competitor.

Answer

Vishal Garg confirmed that clients they are speaking with, including the new bank partner and NEO, are moving from systems like Encompass. He believes Better has a 'generational lead' because legacy systems are not equipped for modern AI. Regarding competition, he stated that partners don't view Better.com as a direct retail competitor and that when facing a potential 'extinction event,' companies are more focused on survival than on concerns about buying tools from a competitor.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the portfolio's economic return potential, particularly how it compares to the dividend after accounting for credit losses, and where management sees the best risk-adjusted returns for new capital deployment.

Answer

CFO Michael Roper explained that the forward-looking economic earnings power of the portfolio is already close to the 10% dividend yield on book value, with additional upside from deploying dry powder. CEO Craig Knutson clarified this referred to yield on book value, not stock price. President & CIO Bryan Wulfsohn added that while Non-QM, Agency MBS, and business purpose loans are all attractive, they would prioritize growing business purpose loan originations at Lima One for their higher ROE potential.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the Q2 financial impact from swap runoff, the potential to quantify future credit losses from loan resolutions, and for a breakdown of the mid-to-high-teens returns across different asset classes.

Answer

CFO Michael Roper quantified the Q2 impact from swap expirations at approximately $0.02 per share. He noted that while the timing of loan resolution losses is difficult to predict, the total credit discount on the multifamily transitional book is around $40 million. President and CIO Bryan Wulfsohn added that mid-to-high teens ROEs are achievable in both agencies and non-QM, while BPLs can exceed 20%.

Bose George inquired about the portfolio's current economic return, its alignment with distributable earnings (DE), and the quantitative impact of expiring interest rate swaps on first-quarter DE.

Answer

An executive, Harold Schwartz, stated the economic return is around 10%, which aligns with the dividend, and clarified that expiring swaps do not affect the economic outlook. He quantified the DE impact as a drop from a $0.09 contribution in Q4 to $0.02 in Q1. CEO Craig Knutson emphasized that the Board prioritizes the portfolio's overall economic earnings power over a specific DE number. President & CIO Bryan Wulfsohn added that new Agency MBS offer hedged returns in the mid-teens.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about the size of the credit mark on the multifamily portion of the business purpose loan (BPL) portfolio and the remaining exposure. He also inquired about the competitive dynamics in the BPL business.

Answer

CFO Michael Roper disclosed a $15 million credit mark on the multifamily portfolio during the quarter, with the total portfolio having a UPB of $1.1 billion. President & CIO Bryan Wulfsohn added that the BPL market is competitive, but MFA is focused on regaining volume by adding talent and improving its sales, marketing, and technology efforts.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about Chimera's future acquisition strategy and whether the company has the necessary components to achieve a double-digit ROE following the Home Express acquisition.

Answer

President and CEO Phillip Kardis confirmed that Chimera remains open to synergistic acquisitions within its core residential credit competency. CIO Jack Macdowell added that while market dynamics are a factor, the company is building a foundation for higher earnings through the Home Express acquisition, optimizing its existing portfolio of callable securitizations, and growing its fee-based businesses.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the portfolio's duration profile following the expected Q2 hedge roll-offs and sought to confirm the total amount of deployable capital raised during the quarter.

Answer

CIO Jack Macdowell clarified that hedges are primarily for floating-rate repo liabilities, not book value protection, so their roll-off will not materially impact book value volatility. He confirmed the total new deployable capital is approximately $287 million, comprising $187 million from re-securitizations and an additional $100 million from refinancing two structured repo facilities.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about a quarter-over-quarter dip in professional services expenses and for details on the deferred tax asset (DTA), including its potential reversal, impact on counterparty capital perception, and expiration terms.

Answer

EVP & CFO Sean O'Neil explained that professional services expenses can fluctuate based on financing structures or litigation and the recent change was not significant. Regarding the DTA, he stated that its reversal would be viewed by counterparties as an improvement to equity. He added that while the bulk of federal NOLs are indefinite, some state NOLs have expiration dates, but the company expects to utilize them beforehand.

Asked about a recent dip in professional services expenses and for details on the company's deferred tax asset (DTA), including the variables for its reversal, its impact on counterparty perception of capital, and its expiration terms.

Answer

The company clarified that professional services expenses can fluctuate and the recent change was not significant. Regarding the DTA, its reversal is expected to be viewed as an equity improvement by counterparties. The variables for reversal are detailed in the annual K filing, and while some state NOLs expire, the bulk of federal NOLs are indefinite and expected to be utilized.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for a comparison of the return on equity (ROE) for NYMT's agency RMBS allocation versus the ROEs on its credit (BPL) and multifamily loan portfolios.

Answer

President Nicholas Mah detailed the expected returns, stating that fully hedged agency RMBS yields are in the mid-teens. He compared this to mid-to-high teens for BPL rental and bridge loans, and low-double-digits to low-teens for the multifamily mezzanine loan portfolio, which supports the strategic rotation into the company's core single-family strategies.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the company's normalized earnings run rate and return on equity (ROE) after stripping out mark-to-market adjustments and foreclosure costs, and also asked for an update on the deployment of excess liquidity.

Answer

CFO Kristine Nario explained that the growth in adjusted net interest income, now at $0.36 per share, is getting closer to aligning with the current $0.20 dividend. CEO Jason Serrano added that the company's goal for its excess liquidity is to rotate it into the agency market and residential credit, with a near-term constructive view on agency bond acquisitions due to the normalizing yield curve.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the stability of New York Mortgage Trust's book value, asking if it has bottomed out given the significantly reduced multifamily JV equity exposure, and requested a quarter-to-date update.

Answer

President Nicholas Mah confirmed that past book value volatility primarily stemmed from the multifamily JV equity book, which now has a minimal remaining value of $19 million with clear resolution paths for most assets. He stated that with this portfolio nearly wound down, the volatility should subside. Mah also provided a quarter-to-date update, noting that adjusted book value was down between 1% and 2%.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked for a follow-up on the trend of embedded Home Price Appreciation (HPA) on new delinquency notices and inquired about the actual default-to-claim levels being observed relative to the 9% rate the company books.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer Dean Mitchell acknowledged that while HPA has slowed, the aggregate amount on new delinquencies this quarter remains substantial and serves as a significant loss mitigant. He clarified that the 9% claim rate assumption for new delinquencies is not aligned with current performance but is a prudent measure reflecting heightened economic uncertainty. He noted that actual performance has been meaningfully better, which has been the primary driver of the company's consistent reserve releases, including the $48 million release in Q2.

Bose George asked if there have been any signs of increasing borrower-initiated policy cancellations and sought clarification on the components of the 'other income' line and its typical run rate.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Hardin Mitchell stated that there has been no change in borrower-initiated cancellation behavior, with most lapses driven by refinancing and loan amortization. He clarified that 'other income' includes contract underwriting services and that the current quarter's figure was slightly inflated, suggesting a more normal run rate would be closer to $1 million.

Bose George asked if Enact has observed any increase in borrower-initiated policy cancellations. He also inquired about the composition of the 'other income' line item and whether the current quarter's figure represents a reasonable run rate.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Dean Mitchell confirmed that there has been no change in the low level of borrower-initiated cancellations, with most lapses still driven by refinancing or loan amortization. Regarding 'other income,' Mitchell explained it includes contract underwriting services and other items, and advised that a run rate closer to $1 million would be more typical than the $2 million reported in Q1, which was slightly inflated by a non-recurring reinsurance-related item.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the potential for increased capital returns beyond the $350 million guidance for 2025 and the growth prospects for the GSE CRT reinsurance business.

Answer

Hardin Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, explained that the $350 million capital return guidance is the current plan but will be reassessed based on performance, market conditions, and the regulatory landscape, noting a similar mid-year guidance increase occurred in 2024. Rohit Gupta, President and Chief Executive Officer, added that the reinsurance business (Enact Re) is well-positioned to grow if GSEs increase their risk-transfer activities, which would represent an attractive opportunity for capital deployment.

Bose George of KBW asked about the expected normalized delinquency ratios as the portfolio seasons, the timeline to full seasoning, and the volume and credit performance expectations for builder buydown products.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Dean Mitchell detailed that delinquency curves typically plateau between years 3 and 4, but the level is highly dependent on a book's specific credit characteristics and the macroeconomic environment. President and CEO Rohit Gupta clarified that most buydown volume comes from permanent, fixed-rate forward commitments by builders, not temporary buydowns. He added that all loans are qualified at the fully indexed rate and that historical data does not show a difference in credit performance for these products.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) posed two regulatory questions: one on the potential impact of the FHFA's proposal on equitable housing programs, and another on the percentage of borrowers who utilize the MI tax deduction.

Answer

President & CEO Adam Pollitzer stated that NMIH does not expect the FHFA's proposal to have a consequential impact, as access and affordability will remain policy priorities regardless of the specific program. On the tax deduction, he explained that since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, approximately 90% of filers take the standard deduction, meaning the MI deduction provides a meaningful benefit to a deserving but smaller subset of borrowers who itemize.

Bose George asked if National MI has adjusted its pricing or credit loss expectations due to macroeconomic uncertainty, such as potential tariffs, and requested the specific provision for new default notices in Q1 versus Q4.

Answer

President and CEO Adam Pollitzer responded that the company's pricing models already incorporate conservatism for potential downturns, so while they monitor emerging risks, it does not lead to wholesale strategy shifts. Both Adam Pollitzer and CFO Aurora Swithenbank clarified that the provision for new notices was approximately $26 million in aggregate for Q1, which is consistent with Q4 on a per-notice basis after normalizing for disaster-related notices and other factors.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about the potential timing for introducing a common stock dividend and requested an update on credit monitoring in specific geographic markets like Texas and Florida.

Answer

President and CEO Adam Pollitzer confirmed that share repurchases remain the primary capital return tool, with a dividend being a future possibility as cash flows to the holding company grow. He also noted that while NMI continues to monitor markets like Texas and Florida for higher inventory, there have been no fundamental changes to its risk outlook.

Bose George inquired about the mark-to-market loan-to-value (LTV) on the delinquent portfolio and whether low claims paid could be expected to continue if home prices remain steady. He also asked for the new money yield versus the current portfolio yield.

Answer

CFO Aurora Swithenbank stated the mark-to-market LTV on the defaulted portfolio is roughly 73%. President and CEO Adam Pollitzer added that reserves are established with the expectation that a subset of delinquent loans will progress to a claim. Regarding yields, Swithenbank reported the current portfolio yield is 3.1%, while new money is being invested at approximately 5%.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods questioned the volume trends at Arc Home for Q2, the impact of wider securitization spreads on consumer demand, and the forward earnings outlook for MITT now that Arc Home has achieved breakeven.

Answer

CIO Nick Smith noted a slight consumer pullback in home purchases but believes Arc Home is somewhat insulated and expects gain-on-sale margins to normalize or improve. CEO T.J. Durkin explained that with Arc Home no longer a headwind, its expected positive contribution to EAD will directly augment the investment portfolio's stable earnings, driving future growth.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about AG Mortgage Investment Trust's level of excess deployable capital and the management's current perspective on its corporate leverage, including the amount of preferred stock.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Nicholas Smith detailed that MITT has approximately $75 million to $100 million in capital that can be rotated or newly deployed, stemming from maturing CRE positions, inefficient financing roll-offs from the WMC acquisition, and other potential rotations. CEO T.J. Durkin added that the company is comfortable with its current leverage ratios, has been managing them for some time, and is actively monitoring the market for new preferred deals.

Bose George inquired about the potential scale of the home equity opportunity within AG Mortgage Investment Trust's equity allocation and the key drivers for increasing earnings to cover the dividend.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Nicholas Smith stated that the home equity sector is expected to "dominate the next quarters and years" in terms of capital deployment. He added that as assets mature, there is room to redeploy equity and take on additional leverage to drive ROEs higher, noting the company's current aggregate economic leverage is modest.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods asked about the potential for downward pressure on Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) in Q3 due to holding excess liquidity and requested a quarter-to-date book value update.

Answer

CEO and President T.J. Durkin acknowledged that Q3 is an interim period ahead of a September note maturity and that the company is actively working to avoid cash drag. He indicated the portfolio would normalize prospectively but stated it was too early to provide a quarter-to-date book value update.

Bose George of KBW inquired if Mr. Cooper sees room for its correspondent market share to increase further and asked for confirmation of a full quarter's contribution from Flagstar production in Q1. He also asked for the rationale behind the decision to sell the Flagstar PPO (broker) business.

Answer

CEO Jay Bray stated that correspondent share is expected to continue growing, driven by the company's scale and cost leadership. CFO Kurt Johnson confirmed that Q1 will include a full three months of Flagstar production. Regarding the PPO business, Bray explained that after a strategic review, the company decided the broker channel was not a business they wanted to pursue, but they ensured a smooth transition for the team members to a new partner.

Bose George from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for clarification on the correspondent versus bulk market strategy, questioning if correspondent market share would remain at current levels or grow now that the bulk opportunity has potentially played out. He also asked a follow-up question about the corporate expense line item, seeking to understand if the current quarter's level was a normalized run rate.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jay Bray clarified that the bulk opportunity has not played out and will continue to be a factor, but that the company intends to grow the correspondent channel significantly beyond the past quarter's levels. He reiterated that capital deployment will remain disciplined, directed toward the best opportunities. CFO Kurt Johnson addressed the expense question, clarifying the corporate expense was $53 million, not $72 million, and that it included some one-time costs. He guided for it to return to the prior run rate of around $40 million in Q4.

Bose George from KBW inquired about the rationale for selling to Ocwen at a discount to book value versus liquidating the company and asked about the future use of the deferred tax asset by Ocwen.

Answer

President and CEO Robert Crowl affirmed that the sale represents a superior path for shareholders compared to dissolution, as detailed in their analysis. CFO Mike Bogansky stated he could not comment on Ocwen's future plans for the deferred tax asset.

Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about alternative monetization strategies for MSRs if approvals are not obtained and sought details on the potential direct-to-consumer business model.

Answer

Robert B. Crowl, President and CEO, explained that an excess MSR sale would be a potential alternative for monetization. Regarding the direct-to-consumer initiative, he described it as a natural extension of the existing call center that would require investment in technology and marketing, likely involving an MSR partner for gain-on-sale economics.

Bose George of KBW inquired about the growth landscape for the PHH 2.0 subservicing business, the fee structure for the New Residential contract, and how significant headcount reductions would impact allocated overhead costs.

Answer

President and CEO Robert Crowl explained that the business development group is in its early stages, targeting banks, credit unions, and REITs, with positive market receptivity and a goal of 10% unit growth. He noted the New Residential contract fees are not public. CFO Michael Bogansky added that expense reductions will affect both direct costs from the private label wind-down and corporate shared services.