Brandon Bingham

Brandon Bingham asked about the $150 million headwind on realized pricing impacts in the 2026 guidance, specifically the assumed prices within each bucket, comparison to current strip prices, and potential uplift from mark-to-market assumptions. He also requested an update on the Texas JV with MPLX.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Sheridan Swords stated the guidance assumes $55-$60 crude, with higher crude prices typically leading to wider spreads. He noted systematic hedging in the GNP business (25% open) and expected upside in the spread business with crude price improvement. Swords confirmed the Texas JV with MPLX is progressing as planned, with strong momentum in commercialization.

Brandon Bingham asked about the $150 million headwind on realized pricing impacts in the 2026 guidance, specifically the assumed prices within each bucket, comparison to current strip prices, and potential uplift from marking to market these assumptions. He also requested an update on the Texas JV with MPLX.

Answer

CCO Sheridan Swords stated that the guidance is based on a $55-$60 crude price environment, where higher crude prices typically lead to wider spreads and potential upside. He noted that commodity exposure in the GNP business is systematically hedged, with only about 25% left open. For the Texas JV with MPLX, CCO Sheridan Swords reported that the build is progressing as planned, with strong momentum on commercialization and significant customer interest. CFO Walt Hulse added satisfaction with the communication and collaboration between the two companies.

Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank asked about the CapEx impact of the new processing plant FID on 2025 and the outlook for 2026 growth spending. He also inquired about smaller, less-publicized synergies from recent acquisitions.

Answer

President and CEO Pierce Norton stated that minimal CapEx for the new plant will occur in 2025, with the majority in 2026, and anticipates overall CapEx will decline after 2026. EVP & CCO Sheridan Swords detailed numerous smaller synergies, such as optimizing crude trucking routes, connecting systems to avoid new capital spending, and leveraging purchasing power on the Medallion system to feed ONEOK's long-haul pipelines.

Brandon Bingham inquired about the factors that would lead Targa to achieve the higher end of its 2026 EBITDA guidance, considering its strong 2025 performance and the anticipated Waha volatility. He also asked for a breakdown of Targa's commodity price sensitivity across oil, NGLs, and gas, especially given the $1 Waha budget for 2026 versus higher 2027 calendar prices, and how this sensitivity might change.

Answer

President Jen Kneale stated that reaching the higher end of 2026 EBITDA guidance would primarily be driven by stronger-than-forecasted volume growth (faster well online, higher volumes) and/or incremental marketing gains across NGL, gas, and exports beyond the conservative forecast. She explained that Targa's equity volumes are well-hedged, making it a beneficiary if prices rise above fee floors. She noted more direct exposure to NGL price changes and past benefits from gas marketing opportunities due to transport positions, with potential for storage benefits in NGL contango.

Brandon Bingham asked what factors would lead Targa to the higher end of its 2026 EBITDA guidance, considering strong 2025 performance and Waha volatility. He also inquired about the breakdown of commodity price sensitivity (oil, NGLs, gas), especially regarding Waha upside and how sensitivity changes between the three commodities.

Answer

Jen Kneale, President, stated that stronger-than-forecasted volume growth (wells online quicker, higher volumes) and incremental marketing gains (across NGL, gas, exports) would drive Targa to the higher end of its 2026 EBITDA guidance, as marketing gains are conservatively factored. She explained that Targa is well-hedged on equity volumes, so direct price exposure is limited. Higher prices above fee floors would be beneficial. She noted that Targa has benefited from outsized gas marketing gains due to transport positions and has opportunities in NGL contango with Mont Belvieu storage.

Brandon Bingham asked if Targa Resources Corporation's illustrative processing plants outlined for 2028 could be pulled forward or if the cadence might shift to two to three plants per year, given recent announcements. He also inquired about how the anticipated free cash flow inflection in late 2027/2028 might impact the 40%-50% payout target.

Answer

President Jen Kneale explained that the medium and longer-term outlook for plant additions will be driven by producer activity and commercial execution, dictating whether growth remains low double-digit or shifts to high single-digit. CEO Matt Meloy stated that the 40%-50% return to capital target is a multi-year average. He anticipates that after Speedway and the export project are completed in late 2027, Targa will be in a strong position to continue dividend increases, opportunistic share repurchases, and potentially reduce leverage, while prioritizing organic growth.

Brandon Bingham asked about Targa Resources Corporation's NGL outlook, specifically if illustrative plants outlined for 2028 could be pulled forward or if the cadence of plant additions might increase. He also inquired about the free cash flow inflection in late 2027/2028, the 40-50% payout target, and potential for catch-up if the payout ratio is lower in the near term.

Answer

Jen Kneale, President, stated that the medium and longer-term NGL outlook depends on producer activity and commercial execution, with future plant cadence dictated by growth rates. Matt Meloy, CEO, reiterated that the 40-50% return to capital target is a multi-year average. He expects continued dividend increases and opportunistic share repurchases post-2027, with flexibility to potentially lower the leverage ratio, focusing on organic growth, returning capital, and reducing leverage.

Brandon Bingham asked if Targa is seeing producer activity in deeper benches of the Permian basin, such as the Woodford or Barnett. He also inquired about the shareholder return strategy, particularly the approach to buybacks at higher stock prices and the potential for alternative returns like special dividends.

Answer

President, Gathering and Processing, Pat McDonie confirmed there is initial producer interest and testing in deeper horizons, which could provide a future tailwind. President Jen Kneale reiterated that the buyback program is opportunistic and driven by their conviction in Targa's long-term value, and that the company's flexible 'all of the above' approach to capital returns will continue.

Brandon Bingham from Scotiabank asked about the sentiment among Permian Basin producer customers given the $60-$65 WTI scenario, and inquired about any shifts in capital allocation priorities, particularly the rationale behind the 150% distribution coverage threshold.

Answer

Jeremy Goebel, EVP and Chief Commercial Officer, noted cautious optimism among producers, highlighting increased efficiencies (fewer rigs for flat production) and a focus on inventory preservation, expecting growth to resume in 2027. Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO, added that gas constraint alleviation and upstream consolidation bolster the producer environment. Al Swanson, EVP and CFO, stated that capital allocation priorities remain unchanged, with distribution growth as the primary return method, and the 150% coverage is a modest reset consistent with peers, allowing for multi-year distribution growth and funding routine organic capital.

Brandon Bingham from Scotiabank inquired about producer sentiment and current discussions in the Permian Basin given a $60-$65 WTI scenario, and the company's capital allocation priorities, specifically the rationale behind the 150% payout ratio and its implications for distribution growth.

Answer

Jeremy Goebel, EVP and Chief Commercial Officer, noted cautious optimism among producers, highlighting increased efficiencies (fewer rigs for flat production) and a focus on inventory preservation. Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO, added that gas constraint alleviation and upstream consolidation bolster the basin's durability. Al Swanson, EVP and CFO, stated that the 150% coverage is a modest reset, consistent with peers, providing a balance for multi-year distribution growth while funding routine organic capital.

Brandon Bingham asked about the full-year EBITDA guidance, noting that while the company still expects to be in the lower half of the range, recent market improvements might suggest a potential to move toward the midpoint.

Answer

EVP & CFO Al Swanson clarified that the guidance is for the 'lower half' of the range, not necessarily the 'low end'. He acknowledged that crude prices are at the higher end of their assumed range but stated that the company is maintaining its 'lower half' guidance for now, given market volatility.

Brandon Bingham asked about the well connection assumptions in the EBITDA guide and customer sentiment. He also inquired about the drivers of the 2025 CapEx guide, including impacts from recent deals or deferrals from 2024.

Answer

Jeremy Goebel, an executive, described producer activity as very consistent with the previous year, supporting the forecast. Chris Chandler, an executive, explained the 2025 CapEx guide includes capital deferred from 2024, spending for new Permian acreage, the Fort Sask expansion, and a new Mid-Con platform, while remaining within their long-term target range.

Brandon Bingham inquired about the Permian Basin outlook, producer sentiment, and current discussions, considering a $60-$65 WTI scenario. He also asked about shifts in capital allocation priorities and the rationale behind the 150% payout ratio.

Answer

Jeremy Goebel, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, described producer sentiment as cautiously optimistic, noting increased efficiencies and a focus on preserving inventory, expecting 2026 to be flat but 2027 and beyond to see growth. Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO, added that gas constraint alleviation and upstream consolidation bolster the Permian's long-term outlook. Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, stated that capital allocation priorities remain unchanged, with distribution growth as the primary method of returning cash, and the 150% coverage level is comfortable and consistent with peers.

Brandon Bingham asked about the Permian Basin outlook, producer sentiment, and current discussions, particularly in a $60-$65 WTI scenario. He also questioned Plains All American's capital allocation priorities, specifically the rationale behind the 150% payout ratio and its potential for further reduction to sustain distribution growth.

Answer

Jeremy Goebel, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, noted cautious optimism among producers due to increased efficiencies and efforts to preserve inventory, expecting 2026 to be flat but 2027 and beyond to show growth. Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO and President, highlighted gas constraint alleviation and upstream consolidation as positive factors. Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, confirmed unchanged capital allocation, with distribution growth as the primary return method, and the 150% coverage aligning with peers and funding routine organic capital.

Brandon Bingham asked if Enterprise Products Partners foresees more inorganic growth opportunities similar to the Oxy Gathering deal, given recent upstream M&A, or if inorganic spend is a lower priority due to the current macro outlook.

Answer

Co-CEO Jim Teague responded metaphorically, indicating that he does not see as many acquisition opportunities ("girls on the dance floor") as there once were.

Brandon Bingham inquired about the potential for more asset acquisition deals similar to the Oxy Gathering transaction, given recent upstream M&A activity, and whether inorganic spend is now a lower priority for Enterprise Products Partners.

Answer

Co-CEO Jim Teague indicated that fewer acquisition opportunities are available in the current market, stating, 'I don't see as many girls on the dance floor as there used to be.'

Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank asked if Enterprise would consider inorganic equity investments in new areas like LNG, and also inquired about the committed portion of the 2026 growth budget and the greatest opportunities for capital deployment.

Answer

Co-CEOs Randall Fowler and A.J. Teague firmly stated they would not pursue passive, non-operated equity investments. Fowler confirmed that about $2.2 billion of the 2026 capital budget is committed, and Teague highlighted the ethylene value chain as a key area of opportunity with attractive fee structures.

Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank asked if Enterprise would consider deploying capital into inorganic equity investments in areas where it doesn't operate, like LNG. He also inquired about the amount of committed growth spend for 2026 and the greatest opportunities for capital deployment.

Answer

Co-CEO A.J. Teague and Co-CEO Randall Fowler gave a definitive 'No' to making passive, non-operated equity investments. Fowler noted that approximately $2.2 billion of the 2026 capital budget is committed. Teague highlighted the ethylene business as a key area of successful expansion and future opportunity, given its robust fees.

Brandon Bingham inquired about the potential for inorganic growth (M&A) given market valuations and asked for details on the marketing-related drivers of quarter-over-quarter changes in segment margin.

Answer

Co-CEO A. Teague stated that any acquisition must fit their existing system and that 'price matters.' Executive Brent Secrest explained that NGL marketing margins were lower due to new term contracts stepping up at rates below prior spot levels. Conversely, he noted the natural gas marketing segment performed well due to winter volatility and favorable Waha basis spreads.

Brandon Bingham questioned the sustainability of the strong Q4 volumes into 2025 and asked for clarification on the margins assumed in the previously guided $200 million annual EBITDA contribution from the PDH plants.

Answer

Co-CEO Randy Fowler explained that the strong volumes are systemic, reflecting wellhead growth across the entire integrated value chain. Regarding the PDH plants, executives clarified that the contracts are toll-based, making utilization the key driver, not margin. Fowler specified the $200 million figure represents the potential incremental EBITDA in 2025 compared to 2024's performance.

Brandon Bingham asked about the impact and dynamics of non-LNG operators entering the LNG market on contracting. He also followed up on the 2026 outlook, asking if the high end of the total volume range includes an acceleration of Trains 5-7, similar to Train 4's timeline, potentially pushing production above the stated range.

Answer

Anatol Feygin, EVP and CCO, noted the significant change in the market landscape, with projects achieving FIDs with diverse, sometimes non-existent, counterparties. He anticipates a challenging dynamic for many participants, including 'LNG tourists,' and reiterated Cheniere's commitment to a 95%+ contracted portfolio with credible, experienced counterparties. Zach Davis, EVP and CFO, explained that the 2026 production range of 51-53 million tons already incorporates some variability. He stated that while faster commissioning or better operational reliability could push towards the high end or slightly above, they prefer to maintain the current range for now.

Brandon Bingham asked about the impact of non-LNG market participants entering the LNG space on contracting dynamics. He also sought clarification on the 2026 volume outlook, specifically whether the high end of the 51-53 million tons range already accounts for acceleration of Trains 5 through 7, or if further acceleration would push production above this range.

Answer

Anatol Feygin, EVP and CCO, acknowledged the evolving market landscape with new participants, some of whom lack discipline in contracting, and reiterated Cheniere's commitment to its 95%+ contracted portfolio with credible counterparties. Zach Davis, EVP and CFO, explained that the 2026 volume range incorporates some variability, including potential acceleration of trains, but significant additional acceleration or favorable operational conditions could potentially push production beyond the stated range.

Brandon Bingham asked about the longer-term market dynamics in California for refined products and whether there is upsize potential for the Western Gateway project or other future growth into that market.

Answer

Mike Garthwaite, President of Products Pipelines, stated that Kinder Morgan would not speculate on the California markets. However, he explained that the Western Gateway project, by reversing the west line and filling it through the new gateway line into Phoenix, provides access into California. This capacity can grow with changes in the California refining market and also offers access to Las Vegas, Nevada, via the Calnev line.

Brandon Bingham asked about the longer-term market dynamics in California for refined products and whether there is upsize potential for the Western Gateway project or other future growth into that market.

Answer

Mike Garthwaite (President of Products Pipelines) declined to speculate on California market dynamics but highlighted Western Gateway's ability to access California via the reversed west line and further into Las Vegas via the CalNEV line, allowing for growth with changes in the California refining market.

Brandon Bingham from Scotiabank inquired about incremental gas supply opportunities for LNG outside of the Haynesville and which basins would be next to meet demand. He also asked which business areas are expected to outperform in the second half of the year to help KMI exceed its budget.

Answer

Sital Mody, President of Natural Gas Pipelines, identified the Lean Eagle Ford, Permian, and potentially the Utica/Marcellus as key future supply basins, emphasizing an 'all of the above' approach is needed. CFO David Michels stated that outperformance in the second half would be driven by natural gas capacity sales, Outrigger contributions, and strong performance from Jones Act tankers, consistent with the first half.

Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank asked for more detail on the commercial momentum in Northern New Mexico and its impact on a potential Kings Landing 2 FID. He also requested an update on the EPIC pipeline, including distributions and partner intentions.

Answer

CEO Jamie Welch stated that Kinetik is "sprinting to keep up" with customer demand in New Mexico, where producers are eager to develop sour gas reserves once infrastructure is ready. SVP of Commercial, Kris Kindrick, noted significant growth opportunities across all producer types in 2026. Regarding EPIC, Welch confirmed the first distribution to partners is occurring this month and that while the asset is performing well, Kinetik would consider selling its non-operated stake for the right price.

Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank asked for the sensitivity of Kinetik's multiyear growth outlook to overall Permian Basin volume growth and requested an update on the EPIC Crude pipeline, including potential expansions.

Answer

CFO Trevor Howard clarified the 10% EBITDA CAGR is not highly sensitive, as it only assumes one new cryo plant and a modest processing increase to 2.6 Bcf/d by 2029. Regarding EPIC Crude, Howard and CEO Jamie Welch stated an expansion remains compelling and is a matter of 'when and not if,' but the timing is not ideal right now. They also noted EPIC will begin paying distributions in May.

Brandon Bingham asked about potential bottlenecks or opportunities related to Lower 48 gas supply and whether the accelerated timeline of Plaquemines' first LNG could be extrapolated to the CP2 project.

Answer

CEO Mike Sabel detailed the company's strong gas supply position for CP2, highlighting the CPX lateral and connections to Permian gas via the Blackfin and Matterhorn pipelines. He confirmed that the execution model is highly repeatable and that the target for CP2 is to perform even better than Plaquemines, given the advanced state of engineering, procurement, and lessons learned.

Brandon Bingham asked about the potential impact of a resumption of Russian gas flows to Europe and inquired about Cheniere's contracting strategy for its uncontracted capacity next year.

Answer

EVP and CCO Anatol Feygin stated that while Brussels may move to ban Russian gas, a resumption of some pipeline flows is possible eventually as part of a 'grand bargain,' but the market could absorb it. On future capacity, he noted that while long-term contracts will increase, new Stage 3 production will still leave a healthy amount of open capacity, which the company will opportunistically hedge throughout the year.

Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank requested more detail on the composition and probability of the 30 projects in the company's backlog and asked about the drivers for the long-term Haynesville production growth forecast.

Answer

CFO John Porter and COO Michael Dunn explained that the 30-project backlog is a constantly evolving sales funnel with specific, discrete projects that are individually probability-weighted, covering industrial, power, and LNG customers. EVP Chad Zamarin stated that the long-term Haynesville growth forecast is fundamentally driven by the need to balance supply with rising demand from LNG exports, power load, and industrial use, which will require a significant call on the basin.