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Brandon Nispel

Brandon Nispel

Director and Equity Research Analyst at Keybanc Capital Markets,inc /oh/

Minnetonka, MN, US

Brandon Nispel is a Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, specializing in communications services and covering leading companies such as American Tower, Apple, Arista Networks, AT&T, Comcast, Charter Communications, Cisco, and T-Mobile among others. He is recognized for his performance as a Wall Street analyst, with a track record including a 45.78% success rate and an average return of -1.58%, and has been named an Institutional Investor Rising Star for cable, satellite, and telecom coverage. Nispel began his career at Northern Trust and joined KeyBanc Capital Markets through its acquisition of Pacific Crest Securities in 2015, holding a CFA charter since the same year. He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration in financial markets finance from the University of Minnesota-Duluth and maintains key professional credentials including CFA status.

Brandon Nispel's questions to Cable One (CABO) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel asked about the expected HSD net add trajectory for 2026, specifically if it would be an improving but still negative trend. He also inquired about a specific promotion in Emporia, Kansas, offering symmetrical 6 gig service with a 3-year price lock and Wi-Fi, asking what percentage of markets can offer such service and if it impacts connects/churn.

Answer

CFO Todd Koetje stated that Cable One is not providing guidance on the 2026 subscriber outlook but noted helpful early trends. He confirmed the network is in excellent condition, with over 50% of HFC multi-gig capable and substantial completion expected by year-end. Approximately 10% of markets are fiber-to-the-home, including Emporia. In these fiber markets, such aggressive symmetrical 6 gig promotions with price locks are a strong approach for customer retention, especially against regional overbuilders.

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Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel from KeyBanc Capital Markets asked about the expected HSD net add trajectory for 2026, specifically if it will show improving but still negative trends, and inquired about the availability and impact of symmetrical 6 gigabit service promotions in markets like Emporia, Kansas.

Answer

CFO Todd Koetje stated that Cable One is not providing subscriber outlook guidance for 2026 but noted early improving trends. He confirmed the network is in great shape, with over 50% of HFC now multi-gig capable and substantial completion expected by year-end 2026. He explained that symmetrical 6 gig service is offered in fiber-to-the-home markets like Emporia, Kansas, where Cable One is the fiber provider, as a strong retention strategy against regional overbuilders.

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Question · Q2 2025

Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. asked about the recent increase in fiber competitive overlap to 53%, inquiring about the performance difference in net adds between fiber and non-fiber markets and whether losses were primarily due to fiber or fixed wireless. He also followed up on the outlook for promotional roll-offs and the company's customer retention strategies.

Answer

CEO & President Julie Laulis clarified that the fiber overlap increased from 50% to 53% and stated that customer losses are mainly from a lack of new connects, which are likely being captured by 'cell phone Internet' (fixed wireless). She explained that elevated churn was driven by internal actions like targeted pricing changes, a doubled volume of promotional roll-offs, and the completion of the autopay program rollout. Laulis noted that the promotional cohort is retaining at a higher rate than the base and that retention tactics are actively being deployed.

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Question · Q1 2025

Brandon Nispel asked about the intake ARPU for the new FlexConnect and Lift products and requested an update on the percentage of the footprint overbuilt by fiber and competing with fixed wireless.

Answer

CEO Julia Laulis stated that FlexConnect, aimed at value-conscious customers, will have $45 and $75 price points in its mass rollout, with learnings from the trial influencing the final offering. She noted Lift is for an incremental, eligibility-based customer segment. CFO Todd Koetje added that fiber overbuild remains consistent at just over 50% of the footprint, while fixed wireless competition is present in nearly all of their markets.

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Question · Q4 2024

Brandon Nispel asked about the factors driving churn during the quarter and requested details on the current penetration of the advanced WiFi and security products to better understand the ARPU growth opportunity.

Answer

CFO Todd Koetje clarified that churn actually improved, with Q4 2024 being the second-lowest churn quarter in the last three years. CEO Julia Laulis identified unique Q4 headwinds affecting overall performance, including the ACP wind-down and major platform migrations. For product penetration, Laulis revealed that 35% of customers leasing equipment now have Intelligent WiFi, while the SecurePlus product is a brand-new offering that has just begun its rollout.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to Nutanix (NTNX) leadership

Question · Q2 2026

Brandon Nispel asked for color on the deceleration of Nutanix's Net Dollar-Based Retention Rate (NRR) this quarter.

Answer

CFO Rukmini Sivaraman explained that NRR was impacted by factors shifting revenue recognition, similar to ARR. Additionally, Q2 NRR was specifically affected by timing delays in U.S. Federal renewals due to a government shutdown, which are expected in Q3. Other contributing factors include increased ASP of new logos and the rising ACV dollar amount required to offset churn.

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Question · Q2 2026

Brandon Nispel asked for color on why the Net Dollar-Based Retention (NRR) rate decelerated to 107% this quarter.

Answer

Rukmini Sivaraman, Nutanix's CFO, explained that NRR was impacted by the same factors shifting revenue recognition, as well as timing delays on some renewals in the U.S. Fed business due to a government shutdown, which are expected in Q3. She also reiterated that as ARR grows, the ACV dollars needed to offset churn increase, making it challenging to maintain the same NRR over time.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel asked if U.S. colocation and amendment activity (excluding DISH) has declined over the past three years, why the second half of 2026 is projected to be lower than the first half, and how this informs the 2027 outlook. He also inquired about the impact on growth expectations in Africa, given a large customer's intent to acquire towers for their own portfolio.

Answer

Steven Vondran, President and CEO, stated that the African customer's tower acquisition is not expected to affect American Tower's business, viewing it as unrelated. He noted strong sales success in Africa in 2025 and projected another good year for 2026, while American Tower aims to reduce incremental capital in Africa. Rodney Smith, EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, explained that the slightly lower H2 2026 pacing is a function of holistic agreements and expected activity timing. He clarified that while new business reached record levels during the initial 5G C-band deployment spike (CapEx over $40 billion), the current steady state (mid-$30 billion range) is still higher than the 4G cycle, with healthy, well-capitalized carriers contributing consistent activity, now excluding DISH.

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Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel asked if U.S. colocation and amendment activity, excluding Dish, has declined over the past three years, why the second half of 2026 is projected lower than the first half, and its implications for 2027. He also inquired about the impact on Africa's growth expectations given a large customer's intent to acquire a captive tower portfolio.

Answer

Steven Vondran, President and CEO, American Tower, stated that the customer's acquisition in Africa is not expected to affect American Tower's business, which continues to perform well with strong new business. Rodney Smith, EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, American Tower, explained that the slight moderation in U.S. new business in H2 2026 is a function of holistic agreements and expected activity timing, not a significant trend. He also noted that while new business levels are not at the initial 5G peak, the current mid-$30 billion CapEx range is a consistent step-up from the 4G cycle, with healthy, well-capitalized carriers contributing stable activity.

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Question · Q3 2024

Brandon Nispel sought clarification on why contracted growth under Master Lease Agreements (MLAs) is expected to step down next year and whether the mid-4% U.S. organic billings growth assumption for 2025 includes sub-1% churn, excluding Sprint.

Answer

Steven Vondran, President and CEO, explained that the MLA revenue step-down is a structural feature designed to align with activity levels and preserve the time value of money, not because an agreement is ending. He also confirmed the expectation is for non-Sprint churn to remain at the lower end of the historical 1-2% range, though he did not provide a specific figure.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS (CCOI) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel sought clarification on the methodology behind Cogent Communications' recent analysis of Sprint-acquired versus Cogent Classic revenues, given previous statements about the difficulty of such delineation. He also asked about the divergence from initial revenue run rate expectations for the Sprint business and where management anticipates the revenue bottom for that segment in 2026.

Answer

CEO Dave Schaeffer explained that the Sprint-acquired business continues to deteriorate due to customer nature and Cogent Communications' margin discipline, with an 88% Off-Net mix for enterprise customers. He noted that the actual decline rate was faster than the projected 10.9% due to customer attrition independent of the acquisition. The analysis was a manual, arduous process involving individual order review for nearly 1,300 customers. CFO Tad Weed added that T-Mobile's initial billing on Cogent's behalf complicated the delineation. Schaeffer estimated the Sprint business's EBITDA contribution to be close to zero, in the 0%-5% range, but efforts are underway to improve it.

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Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel sought clarification on the methodology behind Cogent's Sprint vs. Cogent Classic revenue analysis, what differed from initial expectations, and where the Sprint business's revenue might bottom out in 2026. He also asked for an estimate of the Sprint business's current EBITDA contribution.

Answer

CEO Dave Schaeffer explained that the revenue analysis was an arduous, manual process involving individual order review for nearly 1,300 acquired customers, now possible due to full billing system integration. He noted that Sprint revenues declined faster than expected, compounded by Cogent's margin discipline, and are expected to continue deteriorating, though non-core products are largely burned off. He estimated the Sprint business's EBITDA contribution to be 'close to zero, but slightly positive,' in the 0%-5% range. CFO Tad Weed highlighted the complexity of bifurcating revenue data due to initial reliance on T-Mobile's billing system.

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Question · Q4 2024

Brandon Nispel requested specific figures, including the number of waves groomed from the sales funnel, details on onetime network expenses, and a quantification of purposeful customer disconnects.

Answer

CEO David Schaeffer specified that about 1,500 wave opportunities were groomed from the funnel. He also confirmed there was approximately $5 million in non-capitalized COGS related to clearing data center facilities. He declined to provide a single number for grooming-related churn, explaining it's a complex mix of migrating customers, disconnecting low-capacity circuits, and discontinuing non-core services.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to CROWN CASTLE (CCI) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel from KeyBanc Capital Markets asked two questions: first, about the weighting of the $65 million core leasing number (first half vs. second half) and its concentration among the big three customers; second, whether Crown Castle's financial leverage target has changed post-fiber transaction, given that leasing levels are lower than when the transaction was initially announced.

Answer

Sunit Patel, CFO, indicated that the core leasing activity would be weighted more towards the back half of the year. He also confirmed that the capital allocation framework and the target leverage range of 6-6.5 times remain unchanged, as announced last March.

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Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel asked if the $65 million core leasing number for 2026 is weighted more towards the first or second half, its concentration among the big three customers, and if the post-fiber transaction financial leverage target has changed given lower leasing levels.

Answer

Sunit Patel, CFO, indicated that the leasing activity would be slightly more weighted towards the back half of 2026. He confirmed that the capital allocation framework, including the 6-6.5 times leverage target, remains unchanged, emphasizing the commitment to maintaining an investment-grade rating.

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Question · Q1 2025

Brandon Nispel sought to understand the level of new tower leasing *bookings* signed during the quarter, as opposed to the recognized billed revenue, and whether they were up year-over-year or sequentially.

Answer

Interim CEO Daniel Schlanger reiterated that the company sees activity levels in 2025 as being relatively consistent throughout the year. He did not provide specific booking numbers but stated that the current levels are very good and support the company's 4.5% growth outlook, and there's no new information that would change that expectation.

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Question · Q4 2024

Brandon Nispel asked about specific operational initiatives planned for the tower business and the long-term potential for EBITDA margin improvement.

Answer

CEO Steven Moskowitz declined to provide a specific margin target but stated the goal is to increase them. He highlighted initiatives including purchasing land under towers, driving R&M efficiencies, streamlining the application-to-installation process, and leveraging technology like drones and AI to accelerate revenue and improve efficiency.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to Super Micro Computer (SMCI) leadership

Question · Q2 2026

Brandon Nispel asked about Super Micro's working capital outlook for the rest of the year and the reason for the higher-than-guided other income. He also inquired if the recently raised factoring facility was utilized in the quarter and if the 63% customer was a previous 10% customer.

Answer

CFO David Weigand explained that higher other income resulted from increased interest income on growing cash reserves. He detailed access to over $5 billion in additional capital (credit facilities, factoring) to fund growth, stating current capital is adequate. He confirmed the factoring facility was not used in December but has been subsequently. Regarding the 63% customer, he noted Super Micro primarily does business with repeat customers while also adding new logos, referring to SEC filings for specific details.

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Question · Q2 2026

Brandon Nispel asked about Super Micro's working capital strategy after raising new capital, the drivers of higher other income, the utilization of the factoring facility, and whether the 63% customer was a previous 10% customer.

Answer

David Weigand (CFO) attributed higher other income to increased interest income on cash reserves. He detailed access to over $5 billion in additional capital (credit facilities, factoring) to fund growth, confirming adequate capital for the current outlook. He stated the factoring facility was not used in Q2 but subsequently. He referred to 10-K/10-Q for 10% customer details, noting Super Micro does most business with repeat customers while adding new logos.

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Question · Q1 2026

Brandon Nispel expressed concern about the implied 0% contribution margin from the guidance and questioned the long-term free cash flow contribution of the business as it scales, emphasizing the unsustainability of continuously lower gross margins. He also asked if any one-time costs related to design wins and push-outs were absorbed in the current quarter's gross margin guidance.

Answer

David Weigand, CFO, reiterated the company's strategy of being first-to-market with reliable, optimized solutions, which has historically led to quicker growth and customized solutions with good margins. He affirmed they are staying the course, believing current market cycles will pay off. Charles Liang, Founder, President, and CEO, assured that the company will maintain its bottom line, aiming for more total profit every quarter and year, while also growing market share. David Weigand confirmed that the December quarter's gross margin guidance includes significant additional engineering, expedite, and overtime costs due to doubling revenue and scaling new technology for a 'first Gigawatt project.'

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Question · Q1 2026

Brandon Nispel from KeyBanc expressed concern that Super Micro's guidance implies a 0% contribution margin and asked for clarification on what the business looks like from a free cash flow contribution standpoint as it scales, emphasizing that the company cannot continue with lower gross margins. He also inquired if any one-time costs related to design wins and upgrade push-outs were absorbed into the current quarter's gross margin guidance.

Answer

David Weigand, CFO, reiterated Super Micro's strategy of being a first-to-market provider of reliable and optimized solutions, which has historically rewarded the company with market share and customized solutions yielding good margins and returns. He stated that the company is staying the course, believing current market cycles and new platforms will pay off. Charles Liang, Founder, President, and CEO, assured that the company will maintain its bottom line, aiming to make more total profit every quarter and year, while also growing market share when opportunities arise. Mr. Weigand confirmed that the December quarter's gross margin guidance includes significant additional engineering, expedite, and overtime costs associated with delivering twice the normal revenue run rate and scaling new technology for what is effectively Super Micro's first 'Gigawatt project,' which he believes will prepare the company for future quarters.

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Question · Q4 2025

Brandon Nispel asked for an analysis of the quarterly gross margin, specifically regarding the impact of inventory reserves in Q4 and the outlook for Q1, including any potential effects from tariffs.

Answer

CFO David Weigand confirmed that inventory reserve impacts occurred as expected in Q4 but are anticipated to stabilize and not be a significant factor going forward. Regarding tariffs, he stated the situation is dynamic and being monitored. CEO Charles Liang added that the DCBBS strategy should improve inventory control and reduce future write-downs.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to SBA COMMUNICATIONS (SBAC) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Brandon Nispel (KeyBanc Capital Markets) asked how the minimum commitment in the new Verizon MLA compares to SBA's historical new leasing revenue from Verizon. He also inquired about any further portfolio pruning or review activities, specifically regarding potential cash proceeds and their intended use.

Answer

Brendan Cavanagh, President and CEO of SBA, stated the Verizon MLA's minimum commitment is expected to produce at least as much as historical standalone leasing, providing confidence. On portfolio review, he clarified it's about improving market positioning (e.g., Central American acquisition) rather than generating huge cash proceeds, with the Canada sale being an opportunistic exception due to high valuation. Mr. Cavanagh noted no specific divestitures are on the horizon, and any future moves would aim to improve market focus.

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Question · Q1 2025

Brandon Nispel sought a historical comparison for the level of new bookings seen in the quarter and asked for context on the current book-to-bill ratio and the typical time from signing to revenue recognition for new leases.

Answer

President and CEO Brendan Cavanagh described the current level of new applications as the best in over two years, comparable to the busy 2022-2023 period. He noted the conversion time for new colocations, which now dominate the mix, is typically in the 3 to 9-month range, slightly shorter than the historical 6 to 9-month average.

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Question · Q3 2024

Brandon Nispel sought to quantify the growth in the lease application backlog of signed but not yet commenced leases and asked if the implied Q4 domestic new leasing revenue of approximately $9 million represents a bottom for that metric.

Answer

President and CEO Brendan Cavanagh confirmed the application backlog reflects the shift towards new co-locations. He agreed that the Q4 new leasing level is likely at or near the bottom, but noted that the timing of revenue recognition could be affected by the mix shift, as new leases take longer to commence than amendments. However, he expressed confidence in the overall upward trend of leasing activity.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to WideOpenWest (WOW) leadership

Question · Q4 2024

Brandon Nispel asked for clarification on the nonrecurring professional fees impacting adjusted EBITDA and sought guidance on the full-year outlook for High-Speed Data (HSD) net additions.

Answer

CFO John Rego explained that the integration and restructuring costs, which are defined in their debt agreement, include expenses for the Sprint settlement, M&A activities, and the video platform transition. He expects these costs to decrease through 2025. CEO Teresa Elder addressed the net adds outlook, expressing optimism for the year with hurricane and ACP impacts in the past, while emphasizing a balanced focus on both subscriber growth and ARPU improvement.

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Question · Q3 2024

Inquired about how to model the business using the financial projections released with the recent financing transaction, and asked for details on the adjusted EBITDA trajectory for legacy markets and the profitability progression of Greenfield markets.

Answer

The CFO advised using the projections from the financing as a baseline, noting they didn't account for the new capital raise, and promised more clarity on 2025 in the next call. He stated that legacy markets remain profitable and cash-flow positive, while Greenfield is currently a cash draw but is building significant value, and it's too early to report on them separately.

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Question · Q3 2024

Brandon Nispel asked for guidance on modeling the business in light of the financial projections released with the recent financing transaction, and requested details on the adjusted EBITDA trajectory for legacy versus Greenfield markets.

Answer

CFO John Rego advised that the model released during the debt transaction is a good baseline, but it needs to be adjusted for the successful capital raise. He noted that the legacy business remains highly profitable and cash-generative, while the Greenfield segment is currently a cash-negative investment building long-term value. He stated it is not yet sensible to report on them separately but promised more clarity on the 2025 outlook during the next earnings call.

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Brandon Nispel's questions to DIGITAL REALTY TRUST (DLR) leadership

Question · Q4 2024

Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked about the expected core FFO contribution from the JV portfolio in 2025 and the specific impact of the recently closed Blackstone Phase 2 joint venture.

Answer

CFO Matt Mercier stated that the broader disposition and JV capital activities are not expected to have a material impact on 2025 core FFO due to timing and size. However, he noted that fee income is picking up, as seen in Q4, driven by the Blackstone Phase 2 closing and an acquisition in their SREIT. He expects additional fee income in 2025 as these JV assets stabilize and transition from development fees to recurring management fees.

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