Vice President and Equity Research Analyst at Barclays PLC
Brendan Lynch is a Vice President and Equity Research Analyst at Barclays, specializing in the coverage of industrial goods, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and infrastructure companies. He regularly provides recommendations and price targets for major publicly traded firms such as Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) and American Tower (AMT), with recent performance metrics showing a 49% success rate and an average return per recommendation of -3%, based on TipRanks data. Lynch began his career as a buy-side equity analyst at Manatuck Hill Partners before joining Barclays as Vice President in 2018, and he continues to deliver in-depth sector research and guidance to institutional clients. He holds professional credentials including FINRA Series 7 and Series 63 licenses, cementing his regulatory standing as a financial analyst.
Brendan Lynch followed up on the Treasury contract, asking what factors would lead to reaching the high-end versus the low-end of the $714 million over five years.
President and CEO Bill Meaney clarified that the revenue is primarily dependent on the volume of forms the Treasury sends for digitization, based on the agreed pricing.
Brendan Lynch followed up on the Treasury contract, asking what factors would lead to reaching the high end versus the low end of the 'up to $714 million' value over five years.
President and CEO Bill Meaney clarified that the contract value is volume-dependent, based on agreed pricing and the specific forms and volume the Treasury sends. He noted positive feedback from the customer regarding the team's capabilities.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays requested clarification on the Department of Treasury contract, including its revenue recognition timeline and the status of the re-bidding process for a larger engagement.
President & CEO William Meaney confirmed they are executing on the initial contract, with most revenue always slated for 2026 due to seasonality. He also noted they have bid on a subsequent, larger contract. EVP & CFO Barry Hytinen specified that revenue was minimal in Q2 ($1M) and is expected to be under $5M in Q3, consistent with the ramp-up plan.
Brendan Lynch asked about the Asset Life Cycle Management (ALM) business, specifically questioning what triggered the significant volume increase in the quarter and if downstream pricing was a factor.
CFO Barry Hytinen clarified that the strong ALM volume growth was driven by consistent business wins over the past year, not by pricing, which he noted was flat to slightly down. He explained that new enterprise accounts create a continuous 'flow-oriented' business, and the company has also won more share within its data center decommissioning accounts.
Brendan Lynch followed up on the 'DeepSeek' topic, asking about the potential impact on the ALM business if the U.S. were to implement tighter restrictions on exporting IT hardware to China.
William Meaney, President and CEO, clarified that most ALM hardware resold to China is several generations old and not currently subject to export restrictions. He highlighted the company's ongoing diversification strategy to reduce reliance on China, which includes focusing more on hard drive resales and reintroducing components directly into OEM supply chains.
Brendan Lynch requested more details on the Wisetek and APCD acquisitions, including their geography, product offerings, and customer focus, and also asked about the company's appetite for larger ALM deals.
CEO William Meaney explained that Wisetek expands their footprint in Europe and North America, adding a new hyperscale customer, while APCD enhances capabilities in Australia. CFO Barry Hytinen added the deals represent about $75-80 million in run-rate revenue. He noted that the ALM market is highly fragmented, making large acquisitions unlikely, and emphasized the company's strong organic growth.
Brendan Lynch asked about Vornado's involvement with government agencies regarding the delayed Penn Access project (bringing Metro North into Penn) and the prospects of getting the project timeline back on track for completion prior to the current 2030 target.
Barry Langer, EVP and Head of Development, Vornado Realty Trust, confirmed Vornado's intimate involvement with the MTA. He stated that the MTA plans to begin Metro North service using existing tracks in 2027, with the delay primarily affecting the construction of new stations and tracks, not the initial service commencement.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays asked for an update on leasing progress at 555 California Street in San Francisco and inquired if tenant demand has shifted from long-term planning to more immediate needs.
EVP of Office Leasing Glen Weiss reported that the San Francisco market is markedly improved, comparing it to New York 18 months ago, with strong tour volume at 555 California. He confirmed a shift towards urgency, citing the recent Verizon headquarters deal as a prime example of a tenant acting quickly to secure space, which he described as a feature of a 'landlord's market.'
Brendan Lynch of Barclays inquired about renewal discussions for the significant lease expirations at the 555 California Street property in San Francisco.
Glen Weiss, EVP of Office Leasing, expressed strong optimism for 555 California, calling it the best building in the city. He noted that Vornado has already leased nearly 700,000 sq. ft. since 2021 to address upcoming expirations. While some of the tenants with 2025 expirations may not stay, he feels great about the building's market-leading rents and five-star tenant roster.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked for details on renewal discussions for the significant 2025 lease expirations at 555 California Street in San Francisco and whether the large Q3 expiration was a single tenant.
Executive Glen Weiss expressed strong optimism for 555 California, calling it the best building in the city and highlighting nearly 700,000 square feet of leasing success since 2021. He confirmed that the 2025 expirations involve multiple tenants throughout the year, not one single large tenant.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays inquired about upcoming lease expirations at the 555 California Street property in San Francisco, asking for details on renewal discussions and the general outlook for that asset.
Executive Glen Weiss expressed a very bullish outlook on 555 California, calling it the best building in the city. He noted that Vornado has already leased nearly 700,000 square feet since 2021 to address upcoming rolls and is actively working on the 2025 and 2026 expirations. He affirmed that rents achieved are market-leading and the tenant roster remains five-star.
Brendan Lynch inquired about the significant upcoming lease expirations at 555 California Street in San Francisco and asked for an update on renewal discussions and the general outlook for that market.
Executive Vice President Glen Weiss expressed strong optimism for 555 California, calling it the best building in the city. He noted that despite upcoming expirations in 2025 and 2026, Vornado has already leased nearly 700,000 sq. ft. since 2021 and continues to achieve market-leading rents, maintaining a five-star tenant roster. He feels "great about 555" and its position in the market.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays inquired about the impact of engaging an expanded group of brokers, specifically Cushman & Wakefield, on leasing activity and the pipeline for the PENN District.
Chairman and CEO Steven Roth responded that bringing on Cushman & Wakefield at the beginning of the year was a 'very good add' to the team. He noted that the partnership has strengthened Vornado's outreach both across the country and within New York City, and the company has been very pleased with their additive performance.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked about the impact of engaging an expanded brokerage group on leasing demand and the pipeline for the PENN District.
Steven Roth, Chairman & CEO, stated that bringing on Cushman & Wakefield at the beginning of the year was a 'very good add' to the team. He noted that the partnership has significantly strengthened Vornado's leasing outreach across the country and within New York City, contributing positively to performance.
Brendan Lynch (Barclays) asked whether carriers would be able to deploy spectrum from the SEC's potential auction of 180 MHz in the 3.9-4.2 GHz band via software upgrade, or if it would necessitate incremental physical deployments.
Brendan Cavanagh, President and CEO of SBA, stated that carriers would likely not be able to deploy the 3.9-4.2 GHz spectrum via software upgrade. He believes it would require incremental deployments, probably massive MIMO, and new antennas and radios, viewing it as an adjacent upper C-band spectrum.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays inquired about the current impact of AI applications as a growth driver and asked for details on the Canadian asset sale, including the rationale for the exit and its implications for other smaller markets.
President and CEO Brendan Cavanagh described the AI comments as thematic, based on customer conversations and engineering reviews, noting it's a strong future driver. Regarding Canada, he explained that despite having good assets, SBA struggled to achieve meaningful scale due to market structure. The sale was a strategic financial decision to realize a high valuation, and he noted that portfolio reviews are ongoing for all markets, with a preference to scale up where possible but an openness to exit if not.
Brendan Lynch inquired about the potential for future spectrum auctions and whether SBA plans to exit additional international markets following the sale of its Colombia portfolio.
President and CEO Brendan Cavanagh expressed support for more spectrum auctions but noted that any deployment is still years away, so current customer conversations focus on optimizing existing spectrum. Regarding the portfolio, he clarified that exiting markets is not the company's intention. The preference is to find ways to achieve scale, and they would only consider an exit if no viable path to scale exists. There are no such plans currently in progress.
Brendan Lynch asked for details on the Millicom asset portfolio, specifically the mix of towers versus rooftops, and whether Millicom had previously restricted co-location on these sites for competitive reasons.
President and CEO Brendan Cavanagh clarified that the portfolio consists almost entirely of towers, with about 90% being ground-based and the remainder being towers on rooftops. He confirmed the belief that Millicom had strategically limited co-location on some of its better sites to maintain a competitive advantage, which now presents a clear lease-up opportunity for SBA as an independent operator.
Brendan Lynch asked for clarification on the 2025 FFO guidance, which calls for a 1% year-over-year contraction despite a 1.4% year-to-date same property NOI growth, and what considerations should be kept in mind for the fourth quarter. He also inquired about leasing progress at the Indeed Tower in Austin and an update on the ground floor space.
EVP, CFO and Treasurer Jeffrey Kuehling explained that the 1% FFO contraction guidance is largely due to a difficult comparison in Q4 from the previous year, which included $6.7 million in restoration fee income. EVP, Chief Leasing Officer Rob Paratte highlighted a significant accomplishment in Austin with the leasing of the historic POST building at Indeed Tower to a nationally recognized food and beverage operator, which will enhance foot traffic and amenities. He also noted continued strong activity for spec suites and two remaining floors at Indeed Tower.
Brendan Lynch inquired about the guidance for a 1% year-over-year contraction in same property NOI despite 1.4% year-to-date growth, and specific considerations for the fourth quarter. He also asked for an update on Austin's Indeed Tower, particularly the ground floor space.
Jeffrey Kuehling (EVP, CFO and Treasurer) attributed the NOI contraction to a difficult Q4 comparison from the previous year, which included $6.7 million of restoration fee income. Rob Paratte (EVP, Chief Leasing Officer) highlighted the successful leasing of the historic POST building at Indeed Tower to a nationally recognized food and beverage operator, which will serve as a significant amenity for the building and the Austin CBD. He noted continued strong activity for spec suites and two remaining floors for larger tenants.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays asked about the demand pipeline at KOP2 beyond the 100,000 square feet in negotiation and whether other prospects have advanced to the design and planning phase.
CEO Angela Aman confirmed a growing pipeline of prospects at KOP2, spanning life science, healthcare, and tech. She affirmed that Kilroy is working with several other tenants on space planning, with prospects at every stage from initial tours to lease drafting, and expressed confidence in signing at least 100,000 sq. ft. in H2 2025.
Brendan Lynch asked about the entitlement risk associated with the Santa Fe Summit land sale and questioned the potential for developing the remainder of the site into office space.
EVP and CIO Eliott Trencher stated that the sold portion has a residential as-of-right use, minimizing entitlement risk. He clarified that the rest of the site is not slated for office development and is being evaluated for sale, as residential is considered its higher and better use. CEO Angela Aman added that while Kilroy is keen to grow in San Diego, this particular site is not suitable for its core strategy.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked if Kilroy is observing a trend of life science companies seeking more traditional office space, and whether the supply in South San Francisco is primarily lab space. He also inquired about the company's recently announced investment in Fifth Wall.
Executive A. Paratte clarified that KOP is a purpose-built life science project, typically seeing a 60/40 lab-to-office split, and can accommodate various tenant needs. Executive Eliott Trencher described the Fifth Wall investment as a modest but strategic partnership with a proptech leader, aimed at integrating technology to drive operational efficiencies and cost savings, aligning with Kilroy's history of innovation.
Brendan Lynch noted EastGroup's historical focus on stabilized acquisitions to limit lease-up risk. He asked if the recent reduction in the development pipeline changes the company's perspective on acquiring vacant properties going forward.
CEO Marshall Loeb stated that the company aims to own well-located shallow bay buildings, and the risk-reward shifts with market cycles. He observed that cap rates have been sticky, and recent acquisitions have been strategic, in strong submarkets, and immediately accretive, typically yielding 6% or more. Loeb mentioned an increase in inbound calls from local developers seeking equity partners, indicating a lack of capital for new development starts. He emphasized being nimble to adjust strategy, preferring to be patient and slightly late rather than too early in development.
Brendan Lynch asked if EastGroup Properties' historical focus on stabilized acquisitions to limit lease-up risk would change, given the current reduction in its development pipeline, potentially leading to more acquisitions of vacant properties.
Marshall Loeb, CEO, explained that EastGroup Properties aims to own well-located shallow bay buildings near consumers, with the risk-reward shifting at different points in the cycle. He noted that recent acquisitions have been strategic, in strong submarkets, immediately accretive, and typically yield 6% or more. Loeb indicated that in a flatter market, acquisitions are more attractive. He also observed an increase in inbound calls from local developers seeking equity partners, suggesting a lack of capital for development, which could lead EastGroup to become a more active developer when the market heats up, leveraging its strong balance sheet and patient approach.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital requested an update on the tenant watch list and the company's performance relative to its bad debt assumptions.
President and CEO Marshall Loeb reported that tenant health remains good, with the watch list stable quarter-over-quarter. Bad debt was 30 basis points in Q2, and the company is maintaining its full-year guidance of 35-45 basis points. He noted that California-based tenants account for about half of the bad debt, and a high concentration of the Q2 total came from just five tenants.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays Capital requested an update on the company's tenant watch list and how bad debt is tracking against full-year assumptions.
EVP & CFO Brent Wood reported that the tenant watch list has remained steady quarter-over-quarter, with about 30 of over 1,500 tenants on the list. Bad debt in Q2 was 30 basis points of revenue. The company is maintaining its full-year guidance for uncollectible rents at 35 to 45 basis points. He noted that California-based tenants continue to represent about half of the bad debt, with the issue contained to a small number of tenants.
Brendan Lynch asked about the correlation between tenants serving similar end markets and how they might perform collectively in a recessionary environment.
Executive Marshall Loeb acknowledged that a broad consumer-led recession is their primary risk. However, he highlighted the portfolio's defensive positioning, including its focus on high-growth markets, secular e-commerce trends, and the push for last-mile delivery. With high occupancy and minimal lease expirations remaining in the year, he believes the company is well-insulated, though a significant consumer downturn would inevitably affect their tenant base.
Brendan Lynch inquired about the potential to convert some of the company's land bank into data center assets, asking which markets might be suitable and what considerations are being weighed.
President and CEO Marshall Loeb confirmed they are exploring opportunities to sell land for data center use in markets like Dallas, Austin, and Phoenix to maximize value. However, he was clear that EastGroup would stick to its core industrial business and would not take on the operational or development risk of building a data center itself, preferring to 'flip the land' if an attractive opportunity arises.
Brendan Lynch asked about the recent 5% stake sale in One Vanderbilt to MORI, specifically if MORI had an option to purchase it, what drove the transaction, why the valuation remained the same as late 2024, and if SL Green intends to maintain its current 55% stake.
Matt DiLiberto, CFO, clarified that MORI did not have an option; the deal was made in January and closed last quarter, as SL Green had always intended to sell an additional 5% stake. He confirmed that the current 55% stake represents the final piece of dispositions for SL Green's One Vanderbilt interest.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital inquired about trends in special servicing designations and whether more distress is expected. He also asked if SLG has identified additional office-to-residential conversion opportunities within its own portfolio.
CIO Harrison Sitomer confirmed that special servicing assignments have grown consistently to $17 billion and are expected to increase further, generating more fee income. Chairman & CEO Marc Holliday stated that since SLG's portfolio is highly leased, it contains few attractive conversion candidates; future conversion activity will focus on new pipeline assets, not their existing buildings.
Brendan Lynch asked about the company's current position on the spectrum of prioritizing occupancy versus pushing rental rates, comparing it to their approach over the past 18 to 24 months.
Laura Clark, Chief Operating Officer, stated that the focus on driving occupancy and immediate Net Operating Income (NOI) has been consistent throughout the year, without a significant shift from the beginning of the year. She reiterated that decisions regarding rate, term, tenant improvements (TIs), and rent steps are made to capture immediate cash flow, which remains a key focus.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked for clarification on the 80% leasing activity on vacant properties, questioning if this reflects higher demand or longer decision times, and requested data on conversion rates.
COO Laura Clark provided an example from the prior quarter's repositioning pipeline, where about two-thirds of the leasing activity has either converted to a lease or remains in negotiation. She acknowledged that conversion is taking more time but affirmed that the majority of activity is expected to result in executed leases, demonstrating solid underlying demand.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked for details on the 80% leasing activity on vacant properties, questioning if it reflects longer decision times versus higher demand, and inquired about conversion rates.
COO Laura Clark clarified that while conversion is taking more time, the majority of activity is expected to convert to executed leases. As an example, she noted that from last quarter's redevelopment activity, about two-thirds has either leased or is still in negotiation, and some new leases were signed on spaces that had no activity previously.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked for clarification on the rise in leasing activity on vacant space to 80% from 65% a year ago, questioning if it reflects longer decision times or true demand growth, and inquired about conversion rates.
COO Laura Clark explained that while conversion is taking longer, the majority of interest is converting into leases. As an example, she noted that two-thirds of the leasing interest on repositioning projects from the prior quarter has either been executed or is expected to be, demonstrating strong conversion over time.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked for clarification on the 80% leasing activity on vacant properties, seeking to understand if this reflects longer decision times or an actual increase in demand, and inquired about conversion rates.
COO Laura Clark explained that while conversion is taking more time, the majority of leasing activity is expected to convert to executed leases. She provided an example from the prior quarter's repositioning projects where two-thirds of the activity has either been leased or remains in negotiation, demonstrating a strong conversion trend.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked for clarification on the 80% leasing activity on vacant properties, seeking to understand if it reflects longer decision times versus a true increase in demand, and inquired about conversion rates.
COO Laura Clark explained that while conversion is taking more time, the majority of activity is expected to convert to executed leases. As an example, she noted that from the prior quarter's repositioning pipeline, about two-thirds of the activity has either been leased or is still in active negotiation.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays inquired about the company's philosophy on the pace of redevelopment, asking if they would accelerate activity during a period of market weakness due to lower opportunity costs.
COO Laura Clark stated that the capital allocation strategy remains focused on accretion and long-term value. Since repositioning projects generate high incremental returns (around 15-20%), they are considered a prudent use of capital to drive outsized cash flow growth, regardless of the cycle. CFO Michael Fitzmaurice added a recent example of a project stabilization that yielded a 20% incremental return.
Brendan Lynch asked about LL Flooring's status on the tenant watch list and the overall size of that list. He also inquired about the characteristics of assets sold year-to-date to better understand the company's disposition strategy.
CFO Laura Clark confirmed LL Flooring was on the watch list due to its bankruptcy but noted the overall list remains small and stable, with bad debt levels staying low. Co-CEO Howard Schwimmer explained that dispositions typically involve management-intensive assets with limited growth potential or properties where a sale offers a more attractive return than holding.
Brendan Lynch asked about the biggest changes in leasing across Prologis's customer segments (basic daily needs, cyclical demand, structural trends like e-commerce) and which buckets currently show more or less strength.
Managing Director Chris Caton identified e-commerce as a strong area, accounting for nearly 20% of new leasing, a global and infill phenomenon. Stable growth businesses (food and beverage, medical) are also strong, investing in supply chains for service and cost management. He noted softness in cyclical spending categories like auto and housing-related (e.g., furniture) due to high interest rates.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked for an update on regional occupancy expectations for the second half, noting that Asia's occupancy was up while other regions were down in Q2.
CEO Hamid Moghadam stated that Asia is past its bottom and improving, though numbers can be volatile. He feels better about the China market, but noted its impact on overall numbers is small due to Prologis's ownership share. CFO Tim Arndt added that the small size of the Asia portfolio can lead to more volatile occupancy figures, and the recent increase was due to success in leasing up chunks of the portfolio.
Brendan Lynch highlighted the strong 6.2% cash same-store NOI growth in Q1, which outpaced the annual guidance of 4.5%, and asked about the expected cadence for the rest of the year.
Timothy Arndt, CFO, attributed the strong quarter to factors like free rent timing but cautioned that the metric can be volatile. He stated that future performance will be heavily influenced by year-over-year occupancy changes, which are expected to decline. Hamid Moghadam, CEO, added that the primary driver is the existing mark-to-market on leases, not new market rent growth.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked about discussions with tenants regarding tariffs and whether they are accelerating inventory pull-ins to the U.S.
CEO Hamid Moghadam responded that some customers, particularly those affected by de minimis rules, have pulled trade into the U.S. in anticipation of policy changes. However, he characterized this as a short-term shift of volumes by a quarter or two that will not affect the long-term fundamentals, which he expects to take over starting in the second quarter.
Brendan Lynch asked how to reconcile the current outlook of flat rent growth and higher vacancy with the forecasts from the December Investor Day, and what this implies for the company's core FFO compound annual growth rate over the next three years.
Timothy Arndt, CFO, advised setting aside the Investor Day forecast due to significant market changes. He emphasized that the portfolio's substantial 34% lease mark-to-market will alone sustain strong mid-single-digit same-store growth for many years. He added that long-term growth will be further supplemented by capital deployment and expansion in higher-use businesses like data centers and energy.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays inquired about Plymouth's capital allocation priorities between acquisitions and share repurchases, the amount of capital remaining from the Sixth Street transaction, and the status of build-to-suit development opportunities.
Jeffrey Witherell, Chairman & CEO, stated the priority is to deploy the remaining ~$91 million through a blend of acquisitions and share repurchases. Anthony Saladino, President & CFO, clarified this is the remaining capital from the strategic capacity created by the Sixth Street deal. Witherell added that while build-to-suit activity is currently limited, the company continues to market its infill land parcels in Memphis and Cincinnati and is confident about future opportunities.
Brendan Lynch inquired whether the influx of capital into PLYM's markets was primarily for acquisitions or if it was also funding new development. He also asked about any observable impacts from tariffs or reshoring initiatives on their customer base.
Executive Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Witherell stated the capital influx is mostly for acquisitions, noting that development is market-dependent, with some areas like Columbus being overbuilt while others like Cleveland could see new spec development soon. EVP of Asset Management James Connolly responded that they are seeing a significant increase in demand from BPO companies for bulk storage, driven by a rush to get products into the country ahead of potential tariffs.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays requested an update on the leasing process for the large St. Louis vacancy and inquired about the company's strategy for balancing occupancy versus rental rate growth, especially given the recent uptick in vacancy.
James Connolly, Head of Asset Management, explained that with other deals closing in the St. Louis submarket, Plymouth now has one of only two buildings available for users over 500,000 sq. ft., creating a strong competitive position. Regarding the balance of occupancy and rate, Connolly noted that Q2 rent growth was moderated by two large renewals in Indianapolis where tenants also took expansion space, justifying a less aggressive rate increase to secure the larger footprint and long-term tenancy.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked how the return of auction authority to the FCC might impact NextNav's process and requested a summary of the differences between the economic analyses from the Brattle Group and the one filed by E-ZPass.
CEO Mariam Sorond explained that the new auction authority is not expected to have a significant impact, as it targets higher frequency bands, whereas NextNav's proposal is for low-band spectrum to solve a national security need. Regarding the economic reports, she stated the opposing analysis made flawed assumptions, assigning zero value to GPS resiliency and positing 'outrageous' and unnecessary costs for toll and unlicensed operators.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays Capital asked about the pricing strategy in Q2, noting that the storage revenue per pallet metric recovered after apparent concessions in Q1, and questioned what had changed.
President & CEO Greg Lehmkuhl clarified that the company's pricing strategy has not changed, reiterating a stable outlook. He explained that the metric's quarter-to-quarter volatility is driven by multiple factors, including rate, volume guarantees, commodity mix, and FX. The Q2 sequential increase was partly attributed to favorable European FX and higher collections on volume guarantees during a seasonally low occupancy quarter.
Brendan Lynch inquired about the four assets being acquired from Tyson Foods, asking where they are positioned in the supply chain and what level of long-term commitment Tyson has to those specific facilities.
CEO W. Lehmkuhl stated that it is a long-term, multiyear agreement, though specific terms could not be disclosed. He characterized the acquired assets as a mix of production-adjacent and distribution facilities, with a stronger orientation towards distribution.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital inquired about the current effectiveness of NSA's technology suite compared to its ultimate potential and whether closing the data gap with larger peers is primarily a function of time.
President & CEO David Cramer described their technology implementation as being in the 'middle innings,' with the foundational tools now in place and the current focus on optimizing them with data. He expressed confidence that they can close any data gap with peers relatively quickly due to the advanced learning capabilities of modern AI and machine learning systems.
Brendan Lynch asked about the company's leverage, which is at the high end of its target range at 6.5x, and how the ATM and share repurchase programs might be used to manage it going forward.
CFO Brandon Togashi confirmed the 5.5x to 6.5x target range and acknowledged leverage will likely drift above it temporarily in the coming quarters, which they are comfortable with. He noted that proceeds from planned asset sales could help reduce leverage. The ATM and share repurchase programs were described as opportunistic tools to provide flexibility depending on the stock's valuation.
Brendan Lynch asked about the drivers and durability of longer customer stays and how that impacts the ECRI strategy. He also questioned what might make today's price-focused customers less sensitive to rates.
CEO Dave Cramer attributed longer stays (over 40 months for the current tenant base) to sticky pandemic-era behaviors like home offices, which provides a long runway for the ECRI program. He suggested that current customer price sensitivity was partly driven by the industry's shift to sharp entry pricing post-pandemic. He believes sensitivity will decrease as improving fundamentals reduce market competitiveness, allowing for stronger street rates.
Brendan Lynch asked where mezzanine financing fits into Cousins Properties' capital allocation priorities, especially with the recent increase in acquisition activity.
President and CEO Colin Connolly clarified that mezzanine financing is not a core business but is viewed as a creative, entrepreneurial tool to source potential long-term equity investment opportunities. He stated it would remain a non-material part of the balance sheet, likely under $100 million, to avoid creating future earnings volatility if the loans are repaid.
Brendan Lynch asked for a high-level update on where Cousins stands in its multi-year process of redeveloping assets and improving the overall quality of its portfolio.
President and CEO Colin Connolly estimated that the company is about 75% of the way through its planned redevelopment and repositioning work. He explained that this initiative was intentionally accelerated during the pandemic to minimize tenant disruption. He emphasized that the vast majority of the portfolio is now in excellent condition and its overall quality has never been higher.
Brendan Lynch asked about the market availability of more A+ assets similar to Sail Tower and Vantage South End, and whether Cousins would consider expanding into new geographic markets.
President and CEO Michael Connolly responded that while few such assets are officially on the market, the investment team is actively working to source off-market opportunities. He reiterated that the company's strategic focus remains on the Sun Belt and growing its presence in existing markets like Dallas, Nashville, and Tampa, rather than entering new ones, as they do not feel opportunity-constrained.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked if other tech tenants might scale back their space, inquired about extension options on the Saint Ann Court loan, and questioned the drivers behind the change in same-property NOI.
EVP of Operations Richard Hickson stated that no other significant tech tenant scale-backs are anticipated. President and CEO Michael Connolly confirmed the Saint Ann Court loan has extension options tied to certain thresholds but could not elaborate. CFO Gregg Adzema clarified that property tax true-ups were by far the largest factor impacting the quarterly same-property NOI figures.
Brendan Lynch asked how marketing spend is being allocated between Google and new AI platforms. He also questioned if the strong spring shoulder season occupancy has implications for the fall.
CEO Joseph Margolis stated that since AI platforms have not yet been monetized, nearly all marketing spend still goes to Google. EVP & CFO Jeff Norman explained that spring occupancy was maintained by being more aggressive on new customer rates and that they will continue to evaluate the rate-versus-occupancy trade-off in the fall.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked for an update on the operational and customer impact from the recent fires in Los Angeles. He also questioned the strategy behind the 12.5% year-over-year decrease in marketing spend while occupancy was increasing.
CEO Joseph Margolis stated that fires do not drive demand like hurricanes do, but the state of emergency has restricted pricing, which is expected to impact portfolio revenue by about 20 basis points for the year. CFO P. Scott Stubbs explained that marketing spend is a tool to maximize revenue and that they will spend more if it drives demand, but they also expect savings from brand consolidation post-LSI merger.
Brendan Lynch asked about the drivers behind the 4.4% year-over-year reduction in vacates and inquired about the opportunity for Existing Customer Rate Increases (ECRI) in the upcoming year.
CEO Joseph Margolis attributed improved retention to customer acquisition strategies focused on attracting tenants with a higher propensity for long-term stays. Regarding ECRI, he stated the strategy remains consistent: a fair and sustainable program designed to move existing customer rates to prevailing market rates over a reasonable period.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked why street rates remain negative amid improving fundamentals and whether the timing of the seasonal peak shifted this year.
SVP & CFO Thomas Boyle explained that negative street rates persist because lower move-in rents have been an effective tool for attracting customers. He anticipates rates will improve over time as demand strengthens further. He also confirmed that seasonality this year is not unusual, with the occupancy peak expected in July, consistent with typical patterns.
Brendan Lynch inquired about the company's acquisition strategy, asking if they are targeting specific markets or property types, and questioned the thought process behind guiding to lower street rates while maintaining relatively stable occupancy.
Executive Joseph Russell stated that the acquisition strategy is not limited by geography or urban/suburban focus; rather, it is driven by the quality and value creation potential of individual assets. Executive H. Boyle explained that the balance between rate and occupancy is managed to maximize overall revenue. The relatively flat occupancy forecast is based on the expectation of stabilized demand, consistent with the prior year.
Brendan Lynch asked how Public Storage balances labor cost savings from its digital initiatives with the potential risks of reducing on-site staff. He also requested an update on the strongest and weakest performing markets.
CEO Joseph Russell explained they use sophisticated analytics to optimize staffing property-by-property and supplement on-site staff with a robust customer care center, ensuring service levels are maintained. Executive H. Boyle identified Seattle, DC, and San Francisco as accelerating markets, while markets like Atlanta are still normalizing. He added that even weaker markets like Orlando are showing signs of stabilization.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays Capital asked about the trend of clients initiating early renewal discussions for leases expiring in 2028-2031, questioning how common this is compared to past cycles.
Douglas Linde, President & Director, explained that while it's common for large tenants to look 2-3 years ahead, the current early discussions are an indication of market tightness. In a supply-constrained environment like Midtown Manhattan, tenants are acting sooner to secure their footprints in an improving market.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays followed up on comments about redeveloping assets, asking for a timeline on when redevelopment plans might be finalized and when construction could begin.
President Douglas Linde described it as a fluid and time-consuming process dependent on entitlements and user demand. He used a potential office-to-multifamily rezoning as an example of the complexities involved. He stated it was unlikely any of these major redevelopments would begin in 2025, with 2026 or 2027 being more realistic start dates.
Brendan Lynch asked for color on BXP's playbook for its growing residential development and acquisition pipeline.
Chairman & CEO Owen Thomas explained the residential strategy differs from office; BXP will act as a developer, often with significant third-party capital partners, to generate fees, minority interest profits, and carried interest, rather than pursuing long-term holds. President Douglas Linde added that the company is actively re-evaluating its entire land bank for highest and best use, including residential, townhomes, and other uses to create value.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays inquired about the methodology for allocating costs to discontinued operations and asked for details on the significant increase in maintenance CapEx expected in the second half of the year.
Interim President and CEO Daniel Schlanger explained that cost allocations to discontinued operations are largely complete and any future changes will be minor, not part of a systematic quarterly shift. Both he and CFO Sunit Patel attributed the back-half ramp in maintenance CapEx to normal timing and seasonality of spending rather than a specific new project.
Brendan Lynch asked about the potential consequences of a regulatory hiccup in a few states on the asset sale. He also inquired about the portion of growth stemming from MLAs versus new demand and how increased carrier spending would be treated under those MLAs.
Interim CEO Daniel Schlanger stated that the company does not expect any regulatory hiccups but that the deal would likely still close even if a minor one occurred. He noted that about 90% of 2025 growth is already contracted. He explained that whether incremental carrier activity falls within or outside an MLA depends on the specific structure of each agreement, but the company believes there is upside potential beyond what is currently contracted.
Brendan Lynch inquired about the timing of the $3 billion share repurchase program, the rationale for buybacks over a special dividend, and sought clarification on Sprint churn beyond 2025.
CEO Steven Moskowitz outlined capital priorities, with buybacks following CapEx and debt reduction. CFO Dan Schlanger added that the repurchase is planned for post-closing and offers opportunistic flexibility. Steven Moskowitz clarified that the long-term 1-2% churn forecast includes approximately $20 million annually (40-50 bps) of lingering Sprint churn from 2026 onward.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays PLC asked about the implied drag on same-store NOI in the second-half guidance. He also inquired about the rationale for granting fixed-rate renewal options and whether more should be expected in the near future.
EVP and CIO Christopher Schneider attributed the lower same-store NOI growth in the second half to lower average occupancy, a smaller contribution from cash rental rate increases, and assumed free rent concessions. President and CEO Peter Baccile and EVP Peter Schultz clarified that fixed-rate renewals are very rare and the one discussed was negotiated in 2017 for a large, high-credit tenant, and is not reflective of the current market.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays asked about the implied drag on same-store NOI in the second-half guidance and the rationale behind granting fixed-rate renewal options to tenants.
EVP Christopher Schneider attributed the second-half same-store NOI drag to lower average occupancy, smaller rent-rate contributions, and higher assumed rent concessions. Regarding fixed-rate renewals, CEO Peter Baccile, EVP Peter Schultz, and CIO Johannson Yap emphasized they are done very rarely, noting the example cited was from 2017 for a large, high-credit tenant and is not reflective of current strategy.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked about Amazon's reported $15 billion expansion plan and if First Industrial is seeing any changes in their RFP process or a shift to more in-house capacity. He also inquired if the company has a minimum market share target for its operating markets.
CEO Peter Baccile commented that Amazon's plan is focused on building out its same-day delivery capabilities. EVP Peter Schultz added that Amazon is currently very active in several markets with leasing needs. Regarding market share, CEO Peter Baccile stated they do not have a minimum allocation target, but instead focus on markets with the highest potential for rent growth and value accretion, like South Florida, while ensuring they have critical mass and full organizational capabilities.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays asked about Amazon's expansion plans and whether the company targets a minimum percentage of rent in its key markets to achieve scale.
CEO Peter Baccile noted Amazon's investment is focused on same-day delivery, and EVP Peter Schultz confirmed Amazon is very active in several markets. Regarding market concentration, Mr. Baccile explained the company does not have a minimum allocation target, instead focusing on markets with the highest rent growth potential, like South Florida, while ensuring full operational capabilities in its 15 target markets.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays asked about the market pricing assumptions embedded in the company's guidance and about demand levels from different tenant types, particularly 3PLs.
President and CEO Peter Baccile explained their guidance is built from a 'ground-up' lease-by-lease analysis rather than top-down economic inputs. Executive Vice President Peter Schultz described tenant demand as broad-based, with 3PLs remaining active. He reiterated that activity is generally stronger in the small and midsize ranges across the country.
Brendan Lynch followed up on California's AB 98 legislation, asking if the bill is considered finalized or if there is gray area for future adjustments. He also asked if First Industrial rushed to submit entitlement requests before the deadline.
Chief Investment Officer Jojo Yap acknowledged that the bill could benefit from more clarification but has enough detail to assess impacts. CEO Peter Baccile added that since municipalities oppose the state law, it will likely be litigated, suggesting future changes are possible. Jojo Yap confirmed the company did not submit any last-minute entitlement requests, as all their relevant sites were already well into or had completed the process.
Brendan Lynch of Barclays PLC inquired about CubeSmart's testing of marketing channels beyond paid search and the strategy behind using high-level brand advertising versus targeted digital spend.
CEO Christopher Marr explained that their marketing efforts span a wide gamut, including organic search (SEO), social media, satellite radio, and out-of-home advertising, though paid search remains the highest expenditure. He described brand marketing, like ads on buses, as a way to build 'top of mind' awareness, which complements the physical presence of their stores, so that when a need arises, customers search directly for CubeSmart.
Brendan Lynch from Barclays asked how the lease-up of the two recently delivered development stores in New York compares to expectations and past trends, and also inquired about the company's appetite for new development starts.
President and CEO Christopher Marr confirmed that the occupancy ramp-up at the two new development properties is performing in line with the company's expectations. Regarding new development, he stated that while CubeSmart remains interested, it is currently challenging to find sites that make economic sense due to high capital costs and the competitive rental rate environment.
Brendan Lynch asked for historical context on the 70% of 2025 leasing already being addressed, questioning if this pace is normal and if tenant engagement is happening earlier. He also followed up by asking when the company's focus shifts to 2026 expirations.
CEO William Crooker confirmed that completing 70% of the next year's leasing by this point is consistent with the pace of the last few years. He stated there hasn't been a strategic shift in the timing of tenant outreach. He also revealed that the company is always looking ahead, having already leased about 8% of its 2026 expirations opportunistically.
Brendan Lynch asked about the characteristics of assets in the acquisition pipeline and requested an update on the performance of the El Paso market and other border markets.
CEO William Crooker said the pipeline is focused on CBRE Tier 1 markets and includes a wide range of assets, from value-add to fully stabilized. He confirmed El Paso remains a strong market and also highlighted strength in Midwest markets like Detroit and Chicago, as well as Tampa and Nashville. He noted continued relative weakness in Columbus and Southern New Jersey.
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