Brett Linzey

Brett Linzey followed up on the Blue UAS certification timeline, asking for more specifics on manufacturing expansion to scale, projected unit production per month, and whether any inbound DoD orders have been received or if they are contingent on Blue certification. He also inquired about the economics of the Nord-Drone Group JV, including incremental capital requirements and profit-sharing structure.

Answer

CEO Joe Burns stated that the Phoenix facility will run first prototypes this year (up to six) and aims to support at least a third of the volume currently manufactured in Denmark throughout 2026. He confirmed that inbound orders from the DoD are contingent upon Blue UAS certification, though prototype discussions are ongoing. Executive President of Investor Relations Dan Johnson explained that the Nord-Drone Group JV is a 50/50 partnership, with AIRO contributing manufacturing oversight, R&D, and government procurement expertise, and Nord-Drone providing proprietary technology and production facilities (scalable to 25,000 drones/month). AIRO will receive 50% of the economics (revenue and profit) as they scale in Ukraine and as NATO/US DoD stockpile FPV-proven drones.

Brett Linzey followed up on the Blue UAS certification timeline, asking for more specifics on the manufacturing expansion's unit production per month as facilities ramp up, and whether any inbound DoD orders have been received or if they are contingent on Blue certification. He also inquired about the economics of the Nord-Drone Group joint venture, including incremental capital requirements and profit sharing structure.

Answer

CEO Joe Burns stated that production rates will grow, with initial prototypes running this year, and the Phoenix facility ultimately supporting at least a third of the volume currently manufactured in Denmark throughout 2026. He confirmed that DoD orders are contingent upon Blue UAS certification, though prototype discussions are ongoing. Executive Chairman Chirinjeev Kathuria explained that the Nord-Drone JV is a 50/50 partnership, with AIRO contributing manufacturing oversight, R&D, and government procurement expertise, and Nord-Drone providing proprietary technology and production facilities. AIRO will receive 50% of the economics from revenue and profit as they scale in Ukraine, the U.S. DoD, and NATO.

Brett Linzey asked for quantification of Emerson's content per new nuclear reactor and details on aftermarket capture, given its significant presence in nuclear. He also inquired if the strength in Ovation orders was predominantly driven by the power vertical or if sales synergies between AspenTech and legacy Emerson were contributing.

Answer

CFO Michael Baughman quantified Emerson's content per greenfield nuclear reactor at $40 million-plus for full scope (control system, instrumentation, valves), with an additional $40 million-plus over 10 years from MRO/Lifecycle Services. President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai and CFO Michael Baughman explained that Ovation's strength is driven by the power vertical, with synergies in the GGM business covering both generation and distribution/transmission networks, and product development extending Ovation into substation control.

Brett Linzey asked about the content per new nuclear reactor and the aftermarket capture potential, given Emerson's significant presence in nuclear reactors globally. He also questioned if Ovation's strength in orders was predominantly power vertical driven or if sales synergies between Aspen and Legacy Emerson were contributing.

Answer

Michael Baughman (EVP and CFO) stated that Emerson typically secures $40 million+ content for a greenfield nuclear reactor, with an additional $40 million+ over a 10-year annuity from MRO/Lifecycle Services. Lal Karsanbhai (President and CEO) and Michael Baughman confirmed synergies in the GGM business between Ovation (generation) and Aspen's distribution/transmission networks, with broad account management and product development extending Ovation into substation control.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho Financial Group asked about the sales cycle for power and renewables projects and the expected timing for these wins to convert to the order backlog. He also inquired about the assumed order growth and book-to-bill ratio for the full year.

Answer

President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai and COO Ram Krishnan explained that conversion times vary significantly; large greenfield projects take years, whereas modernization projects convert to sales much faster. Lal Karsanbhai declined to provide a public forecast for orders but stated the full-year book-to-bill is expected to be approximately 1.0, with Ram Krishnan adding that it was above 1.0 in Q1.

Brett Linzey asked for details on the 19% decline in energy business bookings, the contributing factors, and whether quoting activity suggests a potential rebound in coming quarters. He also inquired about the development costs associated with ramping up for nuclear opportunities and if existing R&D could be repurposed.

Answer

Scott Rowe, President and CEO, attributed the energy bookings decline to a difficult comparison with the prior year, which included three large Middle East energy projects that did not repeat. He noted that energy OE is primarily Middle East-focused and is currently in a lull, but expressed confidence in future work and a positive trajectory for 2026 and beyond, contingent on market stability and oil pricing. Regarding nuclear development costs, Mr. Rowe stated they are relatively low, primarily involving modifications to existing products for small modular reactors (SMRs) rather than extensive redevelopment, and no massive incremental expense is expected.

Brett Linzey asked for details on the 19% decline in energy business bookings, seeking insight into the contributing factors and whether quoting activity suggests a potential rebound in coming quarters. He also inquired about development costs for the nuclear ramp, specifically if existing R&D could be repurposed or if significant incremental expenses are anticipated.

Answer

Scott Rowe, Flowserve's President and CEO, attributed the energy bookings decline to a difficult comparison with three large Middle East energy projects in the prior year that did not repeat. He noted a current lull in Middle East energy project bookings but expressed confidence in future work and a positive trajectory for 2026 and beyond with market stability. Regarding nuclear development costs, Mr. Rowe stated they are relatively low, involving minor modifications to existing products for SMRs, and no massive incremental expense is expected for product redevelopment.

Brett Linzey inquired about the ultimate SKU reduction target for the 80/20 program and the potential for secondary benefits like improved manufacturing throughput. He also asked for an assessment of inventory levels within the distribution channel.

Answer

President and CEO Scott Rowe estimated that the initial 10-15% SKU reduction could ultimately reach 15-20% for the business units currently in the program. He emphasized significant knock-on benefits, including simplified quoting, engineering, and supply chain, which should drive productivity. Regarding channel inventory, Rowe described it as lean and stated he expects a modest inventory build in the coming quarters, driven by a bullish North American outlook.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho Securities asked about the carryover of the $60 million in platform optimization savings and cost containment into next year, specifically how much would be structural versus discretionary and potentially flex back up with improved volumes.

Answer

Akhil Mahendra, Interim CFO, clarified that the platform optimization and delayering bucket (approximately $42 million) is structural and will achieve its full run rate this quarter, carrying forward. The cost containment bucket (approximately $20 million) is more temporal and could potentially flex back up depending on future investment opportunities.

Inquired about the business environment and outlook for China and asked for the underlying assumptions behind the company's revised tariff impact guidance.

Answer

The company described the China market as weak and a small part of their overall business, with strength in India providing an offset. They clarified that the current tariff guidance does not include potential new tariffs on copper or from Europe/Japan, and stated that any new tariffs would be met with corresponding price increases.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho sought to clarify the composition of the organic sales outlook, asking if higher pricing was offsetting a more cautious volume assumption. He also asked about the impact of government austerity on spending and the health of the core life science customer base.

Answer

CFO Abhi Khandelwal confirmed the organic growth outlook now assumes 3 points of price for the full year, implying a volume expectation between -2% and flat. CEO Eric Ashleman stated they have not seen a direct impact from government spending cuts, noting that in life sciences, any softness related to NIH funding is being offset by strength in pharma. He added that strength in defense and space is also offsetting potential pressure elsewhere.

Asked for the specific price/cost contribution within the organic growth guidance and its phasing throughout the year. He also sought clarification on a comment about a challenging comparable in the HST segment.

Answer

The company is embedding a 60-80 basis point positive price/cost spread for the full year, with a slightly higher dollar benefit in the second half due to the timing of price increases. The 'challenging comparable' for life sciences referred to the fact that 2024 sales, while sequentially stable, were consistently down year-over-year compared to 2023 levels.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho asked for clarification on the magnitude of the price/cost benefit embedded in the 2025 guidance and its phasing throughout the year. He also questioned a comment about a 'challenging comparable' in life sciences, given that the prior-year quarter was already soft.

Answer

CFO Abhishek Khandelwal specified that the full-year guidance includes a 60 to 80 basis point positive price/cost spread. He noted that due to the timing of price increases, there would be an incremental $10 million of price benefit in the second half versus the first, with the spread remaining positive for the full year. Regarding the life sciences comparable, Khandelwal clarified that while Q4 2024 sales were sequentially stable, they were still down year-over-year versus Q4 2023, which was the context for the 'challenging comparable' comment.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho asked for the specific price/cost spread assumption embedded in the 2025 guidance and its phasing through the year. He also requested clarification on why Q4 2023 was considered a 'challenging comparable' for life sciences, given that the segment was already experiencing weakness at that time.

Answer

CFO Abhi Khandelwal stated that the 2025 guidance includes a positive price/cost spread of 60 to 80 basis points for the full year, with pricing benefits weighted slightly more to the second half due to the timing of price increases. Regarding the life sciences comparable, Khandelwal explained that while sales were sequentially flat throughout 2024, they remained down on a year-over-year basis compared to 2023 levels, which is what the 'challenging comparable' comment referred to.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho asked for a breakdown of the $12 million headwind from resource and discretionary spending in the EBITDA bridge. He also inquired if the fast start on the Mott integration could pull forward the 2026 accretion target.

Answer

CFO Abhi Khandelwal broke down the $12 million headwind into three equal parts: higher M&A spend related to the Mott deal, stock compensation timing, and discretionary spending on T&E and growth initiatives. Regarding Mott, he stated it was too early to change long-term targets, but CEO Eric Ashleman added that the acquisition's reality is 'every bit as good as what we thought' and expressed high satisfaction with the early progress.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho asked for a breakdown of the $12 million headwind from resource and discretionary spending on the EBITDA bridge and inquired if the fast start at Mott could pull forward its accretion targets.

Answer

CFO Abhi Khandelwal detailed the headwind as one-third higher M&A spend related to Mott, one-third from stock compensation timing, and one-third from discretionary spending on T&E and growth initiatives. Regarding Mott, both he and CEO Eric Ashleman stated it is too early to change accretion timelines but emphasized their satisfaction with the acquisition and its early progress.

Brett Linzey inquired about a post-mortem assessment of the first year of the Filter First program in Michigan, including its contribution and share capture. He also asked if there has been any discernible increase or inflection in flow systems categories that might indicate improvement in commercial areas.

Answer

CEO Todd Adams noted strong performance in Michigan, capturing expected opportunities, with the program continuing into next year. He also highlighted New Jersey's new legislation and funding for similar initiatives, where the company is assisting schools. CFO David Polley stated that the flow systems business has grown at or above the fleet average the entire year, which he views as an encouraging leading indicator for a relatively stable to low-growth market with future acceleration opportunities.

Brett Linzey asked for a post-mortem assessment of the first year of the Filter First program in Michigan, including the quantifiable contribution from installations and any insights into share capture. He also inquired if there has been any discernible increase or inflection in the flow systems business that might indicate improvement in commercial market areas.

Answer

David Polley, CFO, stated that the team has done a nice job capturing the expected Michigan opportunity, which is still ongoing, with schools accessing $50 million in state funds. He also noted New Jersey's similar legislation and funding. Todd Adams, Chairman and CEO, confirmed that the flow systems business has grown at or above the fleet average all year, which is an encouraging leading indicator for a relatively stable to low-growth market with potential for future acceleration.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. asked about the company's hedging strategy for steel and copper tariffs and sought clarification on whether the Q3 core sales growth guidance was on a reported or adjusted basis.

Answer

President, CEO & Chairman Todd Adams confirmed the company does not use hedging for commodities but manages a rolling demand forecast and sees no lagging tariff impact. He clarified that the Q3 guidance for core sales growth to be 'similar to 2Q' means a reported 8% year-over-year growth, not an adjusted figure.

Brett Linzey inquired about early signs of improvement in the leading 'flow systems' category, whether the company gained market share, and the potential for discretionary costs to return and impact margin mix.

Answer

CEO Todd Adams noted that flow systems are growing at a 'pretty decent clip,' which is a positive leading indicator. He stated that while quarterly share is hard to measure, their 'specification share' is unquestionably growing over time. He does not foresee unusual variable costs returning and reaffirmed the 30-35% incremental margin outlook, noting institutional remains the most profitable vertical.

Brett Linzey asked about the moving pieces for free cash flow normalization in 2026, including any potential 'load-in' from the NSI acquisition, and what the conversion could look like. He also sought to understand the magnitude and scope of the consumer trade-down to repair, including any regional variances or correlation to weather conditions.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara expects good free cash flow conversion in 2026, with no specific 'load-in' impact from the NSI (Durodyne/SUPCO) acquisition as it's acquired with healthy inventory. The biggest impact will be the reduction in finished goods inventory. On consumer trade-down, Alok Maskara observed more in the Northeast, possibly related to economic conditions, less so in southern states where AC is critical. He noted this is anecdotal, based on increased spare parts and coil sales, and expects a turnaround in 2026 with resolved canister availability, contractor training, and improved consumer confidence/interest rates.

Brett Linzey asked about the free cash flow conversion for 2026, considering normalization and potential load-in from the NSI acquisition. He also sought to understand the magnitude and scope of the consumer trade-down in residential, including regional variances or correlation to weather conditions.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara expects good free cash flow conversion in 2026, with the reduction in finished goods inventory from 2025 becoming a gain. He does not anticipate a specific load-in impact from NSI, expecting it to convert free cash at a high level after accounting adjustments. Alok Maskara observed more trade-down in the Northeast, possibly related to economic conditions, but less in southern states where AC is critical. He noted this is based on anecdotal data and increased spare parts/coil sales, expecting a turnaround next year with improved canister availability, contractor training, and consumer confidence.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. asked for an update on the manufacturing productivity ramp at the Mexico facility and its impact on future factory output. He also requested any data supporting the commentary on a 'repair versus replace' trend.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara expressed delight with the factory productivity gains, noting both the Saltillo and Stuttgart plants are now running well, allowing for labor force scaling and better demand balancing. He expects this productivity run to continue. On repair vs. replace, he clarified the comment was based on anecdotal feedback from dealers and key accounts, not on specific internal data, as Lennox's own parts sales were normal in Q2.

Brett Linzey asked if the commercial R-454B transition delays were due to product availability or price sensitivity, and how the Q1 commercial volume decline of 9% tracked relative to expectations.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara clarified the delay was not due to product availability or price sensitivity, but rather a 'learning curve' as customers finished R-410A jobs and ensured their technicians were trained and equipped for the new refrigerant. CFO Michael Quenzer noted that about half of the 9% volume decline was expected destocking, while the rest was from the order delays.

Brett Linzey asked for quantification of the 2025 volume contribution from the new commercial facility in Mexico and whether it would be back-end loaded. He also requested details on inefficiencies at the existing facility.

Answer

CFO Michael Quenzer stated that a few points of the mid-single-digit BCS volume growth guidance are from share gains enabled by the new factory, confirming it would be back-end loaded to align with the Q2/Q3 replacement season. CEO Alok Maskara attributed prior inefficiencies to the Stuttgart facility supporting the Mexico ramp-up and expressed optimism for recovering those costs in 2025.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho Securities asked for clarification on the 30% incremental margin for low GWP products, questioning if it applied to volume or price/mix. He also inquired about the new versus replacement dynamic in residential and the potential to gain share in new housing.

Answer

CFO Michael Quenzer clarified that both the price/mix benefit from the new products and normal volume gains are expected to have around a 30% incremental margin. CEO Alok Maskara noted early 'green shoots' in new housing and strength in Lennox's share position there, while attributing the value-tier trend to SEER changes, pricing levels, and interest rates.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. inquired about the expected timing for a recovery in customer decision-making on delayed projects and asked for specifics on how much of the previously flagged $70 million of at-risk China revenue shipped in Q2.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Zapico explained that project timelines are being impacted by tariff uncertainty, not the tariff levels themselves, and that resolutions will come as trade deals are finalized. He confirmed that a "good majority" of the $70 million in at-risk revenue did ship in the second quarter, with the remainder expected to be resolved in Q3 and Q4.

Brett Linzey asked for an update on OEM inventory destocking in the Automation & Engineered Solutions segment and whether capital project timelines are shifting. He also requested more detail on the A&D business performance and outlook.

Answer

CEO David Zapico noted that destocking is progressing and drove strong Q1 orders, particularly in medtech, and should be resolved by year-end. For A&D, he reiterated a mid-single-digit growth outlook for the year, balanced across commercial and defense. He added that the aftermarket remains strong, benefiting from slower fleet retirements.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho Securities inquired about the timing of delayed project releases, backlog conversion for the Engineered Solutions business, and the 2025 outlook for the aerospace and defense segment, including profitability shifts between OE and aftermarket.

Answer

Executive David Zapico indicated that delayed projects are expected to move forward in 2025 and that the OEM destocking affecting the Engineered Solutions business has started to abate. For Aerospace & Defense, he projects mid-single-digit growth in 2025 with strength in both commercial and defense markets, and stated there are no margin concerns regarding the OE versus aftermarket mix.

Brett Linzey requested a quantification of the revenue or order impact from the OEM destocking this year and asked if the Q4 guidance includes any catch-up from previously delayed projects.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Zapico characterized the destocking impact in the automation and Paragon businesses as 'substantial,' confirming it has been a significant headwind. He stated that the Q4 guide for the EIG project businesses assumes a normal, seasonally strong fourth quarter, which includes an expectation for typical year-end spending to occur.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho Financial Group asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the year-over-year gross margin expansion and inquired about the impact of the refrigerant cylinder shortage in Q2 and its expected duration.

Answer

VP Rick Gomez attributed 50-60 basis points of margin enhancement to raw selling margin and noted that pricing optimization technology has added about 200 basis points over the last few years. Regarding the cylinder shortage, EVP Paul Johnston described it as an 'irritating' allocation issue that is becoming less of a concern, with expectations to be off allocation by August. He did not believe it was the primary cause of the market slowdown.

Brett Linzey asked about the industry's readiness for the A2L transition, specifically regarding the technician learning curve and potential for installation delays. He also questioned if tariff-driven price hikes might induce pre-buy activity.

Answer

Executive Paul Johnston stated he sees no significant delays or bottlenecks from a technician's viewpoint, suggesting Q1 purchasing patterns were driven by the price difference between A2L and 410A products. He also dismissed the likelihood of a pre-buy, noting that 410A systems are no longer manufactured and A2L price increases were implemented too rapidly for customers to get ahead of them.

Brett Linzey asked for clarification on how the high single-digit price/mix from new units and additional tariff-related pricing would impact gross margin percentage. He also followed up on the repair versus replace debate, looking for data points in parts or components.

Answer

Executive Barry S. Logan explained that a higher cost A2L product sold at a correspondingly higher price doesn't inherently expand the gross margin percentage. Executive Rick Gomez added that the more compelling opportunity is leveraging the fixed SG&A base, which benefits the EBIT margin. Executive Paul Johnston reiterated that both parts and unit sales saw double-digit growth, indicating a 'repair and replace' environment.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho followed up on the previously discussed tariff impact, asking about mitigation progress, and also inquired about the specific drivers behind the encouraging July order strength.

Answer

President and CEO Richard Tobin stated that the company is managing tariff impacts through pricing and productivity and expects no new headwinds in the second half. He confirmed that reshoring initiatives are on track. Regarding recent orders, Tobin noted that July's booking momentum was solid and broad-based, supporting the company's confidence in its second-half forecast and indicating a solid book-to-bill for Q3.

Brett Linzey asked whether all necessary pricing actions to mitigate tariffs have been implemented and requested an estimate of the net impact from foreign exchange at current rates.

Answer

Executive Richard Tobin responded that while most pricing is out, the situation remains a "moving target" pending clarity on final tariff rates. He also confirmed that, at current spot rates, the tailwind from foreign exchange would roughly offset the amount trimmed from the guidance, effectively putting it back.

Brett Linzey asked for details on the strong biopharma orders, including the nature of applications and customer concentration. He also inquired about the specification process and the growth of the total addressable market (TAM) for liquid cooling in data centers.

Answer

Executive Richard Tobin described the biopharma order growth as broad-based, reflecting pull-through demand from end-use production now that inventory has cleared. For liquid cooling, he noted the TAM is difficult to quantify but has grown significantly. He credited Dover's market share wins to preemptive capacity expansion, which has allowed them to meet the surprisingly short-cycle demand.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. inquired about the organic sales outlook, asking how the $40 million tariff surcharge revenue compares to original expectations and if the company is well-covered for the year. He also questioned the recent pace of acquisitions, asking if the four new deals represented a pull-forward or if it signals potential upside to the company's long-term acquired growth targets.

Answer

SVP & CFO Mike Wagnes confirmed that surcharge levels were adjusted in line with updated tariff estimates to maintain neutrality at the operating income level. President & CEO John Stone stated that while several deals closed in a tight window, it was not a pull-forward, and the M&A pipeline remains active across all segments and product types, supported by the company's accelerating integration capabilities.

Brett Linzey asked about the mechanics of tariff-related pricing, specifically whether all necessary actions to offset the $80 million impact have been announced and what the mix is between list price increases and surcharges.

Answer

CFO Michael Wagnes confirmed that pricing actions have been announced to cover tariffs that were in place as of April. CEO John Stone added that the company chose to use surcharges instead of list price changes to maintain agility in the volatile tariff environment, allowing them to respond quickly to changes.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho asked for a breakdown of the non-residential outlook between commercial and institutional, the expected phasing of growth in 2025, and the potential mechanics of pricing actions to mitigate hypothetical tariffs on goods from Mexico.

Answer

CFO Michael Wagnes said 2025 growth phasing should follow normal seasonality similar to 2024. CEO John Stone added that institutional markets remain strong while commercial is mixed, with data center strength offsetting office softness. On potential Mexico tariffs, Stone stated they would implement pricing actions to offset the dollar impact on operating income and EPS, though the specific mechanics are hypothetical.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. probed the updated tariff forecast, asking if the guidance framework included a hedge against potential second-half softening. He also questioned whether the tariff situation has impacted the pace of Pentair's supply chain reconfiguration and transformation initiatives.

Answer

President and CEO John L. Stauch confirmed the guidance reflects some caution, as only about $10 million of a net $15 million benefit from lower tariffs was passed through to the outlook. He stated that tariff uncertainty has 'paused' major long-term supply chain decisions until there is more clarity. However, he emphasized that the broader transformation program remains on track, with $44 million in savings achieved in the first half of the year.

Brett Linzey asked for clarification on the split between legacy Transformation savings and the new 80/20 program within the $80 million productivity target, and inquired about the multi-year savings potential of the 80/20 initiative. He also asked about the breakdown of pricing assumptions between normal business and tariff-related actions.

Answer

President and CEO John Stauch explained that the benefits from the 80/20 initiative are not separated but are captured within the overall productivity column, as 80/20 serves to focus and accelerate all four pillars of the Transformation program. CFO Bob Fishman added that the 1.5% to 2% price guidance for 2025 includes the known China tariffs, and any potential future tariffs from Mexico would be offset by additional pricing actions, which would be additive to the current guidance.

Speaking for Brett Linzey of Mizuho, an analyst asked how the opportunity for 80/20 initiatives is distributed across Pentair's business segments.

Answer

President and CEO John Stauch stated that the opportunity for 80/20 is equal across all three segments (Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool). He explained that while the focus might differ—margin in Flow and Water Solutions versus growth enablement in Pool—all segments have an equal chance to participate and benefit from the program.

Brett Linzey asked how the grid automation business performed against expectations and if the outlook for utility meters has changed. He also sought further confirmation beyond order rates that the utility distribution destocking cycle has concluded.

Answer

EVP & CFO Bill Sperry acknowledged the quarter was softer than anticipated for grid automation but noted that smaller project wins and MRO activity are creating a floor. CEO Gerben Bakker added this softness was offset by stronger-than-expected T&D performance. Regarding destocking, Bakker confirmed that dialogue with both distributors and end customers suggests inventories are now in line, giving the company confidence that the destocking period is over.

Asked for details on the large meter and AMI project roll-offs, including backlog size and whether softness was due to comps or slowing orders. Also requested a breakdown of the guided investments between growth and productivity and their associated paybacks.

Answer

On meters/AMI, the company expects Q1 to be similar to Q4, with improvement through the rest of the year based on RFP visibility. Regarding investments, they stated the paybacks are very good (e.g., ~3 years for productivity), but declined to provide a specific mix between growth and productivity as project approvals are ongoing.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho Securities USA LLC asked about the exit backlog for the large meter and AMI business and whether recent softness was due to comps or slowing orders. He also requested a breakdown of the guided 2025 investment spending between growth and productivity initiatives.

Answer

CFO Bill Sperry explained that the meter/AMI business needs to backfill orders and that Q1 is expected to look similar to Q4 before improving through the rest of the year. Regarding investment spending, Sperry noted that paybacks are good for both growth and productivity projects but declined to provide a specific mix, as project greenlighting is an ongoing process.

Brett Linzey asked for details on the meter and AMI project roll-offs, including the exit backlog and whether the weakness was due to tough comps or slowing orders. He also asked for a breakdown of investment spending between growth and productivity initiatives.

Answer

CFO William Sperry explained that for meters/AMI, Q1 will likely resemble Q4, with improvement expected through the rest of the year based on visibility into new RFPs. Regarding investments, Sperry noted that paybacks are strong for both growth and productivity projects (around 3 years for the latter) but declined to provide a specific spending mix as project approvals are still ongoing.

Brett Linzey requested details on the projected $10 million to $20 million net impact from tariffs in 2025, asking for the breakdown between price mitigation and supply chain reconfiguration, and the overall pricing assumption for the year.

Answer

CFO Pat Hallinan explained the net impact is primarily due to the lag in implementing countermeasures and LIFO accounting effects, and that the company will use a mix of accelerated supply chain moves and pricing to offset the full $90-$100 million unmitigated impact. CEO Don Allan and COO Chris Nelson elaborated on the comprehensive mitigation strategy, noting the company's U.S. sourcing from China is already down to mid-teens percentage and that the plan involves policy engagement, supply chain derisking, and short-term pricing actions with channel partners.

Brett Linzey asked about potential customer pre-buy activity ahead of any tariff-related pricing and inquired about the near-term actionability of the M&A pipeline for larger, Hydradyne-sized deals.

Answer

President and CEO Neil Schrimsher stated he does not see heightened pre-buy activity related to tariffs, as customers seem prepared to pass on costs if they occur. CFO David Wells added that the break-fix nature of the business limits pre-stocking. Regarding M&A, Schrimsher affirmed the company has the operational capacity and a strong balance sheet to pursue more large deals and that the pipeline remains active.

Brett Linzey asked about the automation platform's staffing, questioning if Applied retained personnel during the downturn, which would imply strong operating leverage in a recovery. He also asked if the company's content per project and wallet share have increased in line with its expanded addressable market due to the reshoring trend.

Answer

President and CEO Neil Schrimsher confirmed that the company consciously maintained staffing levels in its automation business to preserve capacity for the expected recovery in robotics and vision. On reshoring, Schrimsher affirmed that Applied is well-positioned and benefiting from the trend, both directly through industrial projects and indirectly via support industries. He noted this helps customers onshore production and that the company's Mexico and Canada operations also see benefits.

Brett Linzey asked about the dewatering business, inquiring if recent storm events had a discernible impact on results and if any recovery-related activity was expected in Q4. He also questioned why Q4 margin expansion is guided to be lower than in Q3.

Answer

Executive William Grogan stated that any impact from storms on the dewatering business was minimal, or 'on the fringe,' and that the business was otherwise resilient despite some softness in mining. Executive Matthew Pine explained the sequential step-down in Q4 margin expansion is due to portfolio mix, specifically a seasonal increase in the lower-margin Water Infrastructure segment and a different end-market mix within the MCS segment.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho sought clarification on the 2025 incremental margin forecast of 30-35%, asking whether the announced restructuring savings should be considered additive to this range or if they are already included.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Craig Arnold advised thinking of the 30-35% range as an 'all-in' incremental margin, with restructuring benefits already factored in. He explained that while volume leverage is a positive, it is offset by inefficiencies from new factory start-ups and increased commercial resource investments. He noted this range is better than historical planning assumptions but below the current year's level, which benefited from significant price realization.

Brett Linzey of Mizuho Financial Group asked if the growth in thermal management applications, driven by liquid cooling, should now be expected to outpace the growth of the power management business.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi acknowledged that liquid cooling will grow at a high rate within the thermal portfolio, but emphasized that demand is balanced and that AI benefits the entire portfolio. He noted that power management will also continue to grow strongly due to data center densification, and highlighted prefabrication as another key growth area. He deferred a more detailed elaboration to the upcoming investor event.

Brett Linzey from Mizuho Securities inquired about the portfolio rationalization efforts, asking if the one-point drag on growth would persist into next year. He also asked if the growth in new product launches would require a step-up in R&D spending.

Answer

CEO William Brown stated that the headwind from portfolio and geographic prioritization should decline substantially next year and will become a less prominent part of the external conversation. Regarding new products, he explained that the acceleration is being funded within the existing R&D budget by shifting resources toward new product line extensions, primarily within the Safety & Industrial and Transportation & Electronics businesses.

Brett Linzey expressed surprise at the lack of smaller bolt-on M&A deals and asked if the company is primarily targeting larger assets. He also inquired if any priority acquisition targets had fallen out of the pipeline.

Answer

Executive Jennifer Parmentier reiterated that the M&A pipeline contains strategic assets of all sizes and the company is not focused on one size over another, stressing that timing and strategic fit are the key factors. Executive Todd Leombruno added that the company's financial capacity for deals has never been greater; the focus is on finding the right strategic deals that can generate returns, rather than on deal size.