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    Brian ChinStifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated

    Brian Chin's questions to Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin sought to confirm that the commentary on non-linear demand and timing issues was focused on advanced foundry, not DRAM. He also asked for an estimate of the current installed capacity for Gate-All-Around (GAA).

    Answer

    CFO Brice Hill confirmed the non-linearity comments were directed at leading logic, not the strong DRAM market. He estimated that close to 100,000 wafer starts per month of GAA capacity will be in the field by the end of the quarter, characterizing it as being in the 'first three innings' of a build-out expected to exceed 300,000.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked about the pacing of investments in advanced logic nodes like 2nm and 16-angstrom, questioning whether current geoeconomic concerns could cause customers to spread these investments over a longer period.

    Answer

    CFO Brice Hill responded by focusing on strong underlying demand, noting that the AI component of data center is growing at 40% and leading-edge fabs are at 100% utilization. He suggested that the strength of the new gate-all-around node, combined with these demand signals, points toward a significant and timely technology build-out.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked about the investment pacing for upcoming advanced logic nodes like 2-nanometer. He questioned whether current geoeconomic concerns could cause customers to spread these significant investments over a longer period than previously anticipated.

    Answer

    CFO Brice Hill responded by emphasizing the strength of underlying demand, with data center growing 20%, the AI component growing 40%, and leading-edge fabs at 100% utilization. He pointed to the strong technology proposition of gate-all-around with backside power and recent customer announcements as signals that there is significant energy and momentum behind the roadmap, suggesting a robust build-out.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin sought to reconcile a previously disclosed $549 million backlog reduction with the newly quantified $400 million revenue impact for the fiscal year from trade restrictions.

    Answer

    CFO Brice Hill confirmed the analyst's interpretation was correct, explaining that the $549 million figure represented the total backlog impact, which extended beyond one year. The portion impacting the current fiscal year was closer to the newly provided $400 million estimate, indicating no significant change in outlook.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin asked if it's reasonable to expect China sales to fall below the 30% normalized level in 2025. He also asked for a comparison between ASML's upbeat view on lithography intensity for DRAM and Applied's messaging on materials-intensive inflections.

    Answer

    CFO Brice Hill responded that future China revenue levels will depend on the health of the ICAPS market, which constitutes the vast majority of their business there. CEO Gary Dickerson addressed the second question by stating the views are complementary. He stressed that Applied is deeply engaged with customers on future DRAM roadmaps like 4F squared and 3D DRAM, which are significantly more materials-engineering intensive, giving them high confidence that their share of spending will increase with these inflections.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin of Stifel Financial Corp. asked about the drivers for the Q4 rise in Dragonfly subsurface inspection revenue, the strategic importance of the next-gen Dragonfly platform, and the reasons for the differing rebound strengths between advanced nodes and packaging in Q4.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Plisinski explained that the Q4 subsurface inspection demand is broad, coming from several customers across die stacking, 2.5D logic, specialty power devices, and wafer bonding applications. He described the next-gen Dragonfly as a "quite important" and significant platform for defending market position. The advanced nodes rebound, he noted, is fueled by increased wallet share and a major Q4 win with a new gate-all-around customer for both OCD and films metrology.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked for quantification of the impact from reciprocal tariffs on Q2 and full-year shipments and sought more detail on the drivers behind the strong Q1 advanced nodes revenue.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Plisinski responded that there is currently no impact from reciprocal tariffs, but the company is accelerating its strategic move to establish manufacturing in Asia to mitigate future risk. He explained that the strong Q1 advanced nodes revenue was driven by planned, strong investments in memory and gate-all-around, not a pull-forward, and that a pause in memory spending is anticipated for Q3.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired whether process control intensity for HBM is declining or increasing with more complex stacks like 12-high and HBM4. He also asked about market share targets for the new $300 million incremental SAM in AI packaging.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Plisinski confirmed that process control intensity is increasing due to higher yield loss risks and the complexity of denser interconnects. For the new SAM, he explained that for certain products like EchoScan, they target a very high share due to a lack of alternatives, while for others like 3D bump inspection, they face a strong incumbent and any share gain would be positive.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about the timing of TSMC's CoWoS capacity expansion, Onto's confidence in outgrowing WFE in 2025, details on a $10 million lithography pushout, and the company's ability to flex manufacturing capacity to meet potential surges in demand.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Plisinski expressed high confidence in revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by gate-all-around (GAA) and DRAM expansions. He confirmed the lithography delay was customer-driven and stated Onto is highly confident in outgrowing WFE in 2025, citing increased process control intensity in AI packaging. Plisinski affirmed that the company has significant manufacturing flexibility to increase output, noting they are not yet running full second or third shifts.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin from Stifel Financial Corp asked if current data center shipments are for legacy GPUs and whether the upcoming shift to newer platforms like GB200 implies a significant growth multiplier for AE.

    Answer

    President and CEO Steve Kelley did not specify which GPUs their products support but confirmed AE has won new designs that will ramp in 2026 and is already working on designs for 2027. He emphasized the rapid design cycle and AE's high win rate within its core customer base, noting that engineering bandwidth is a key factor in managing growth and new opportunities.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about Advanced Energy's underlying assumption for the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market, the drivers for its own 10% semiconductor growth forecast, and which end markets are driving initial ramps for new plasma power products. He also asked for color on the potential tariff headwinds in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    CEO Stephen Kelley explained that their forecast assumes 0-5% WFE growth, with AE's outperformance driven by leading-edge process intensity and new product adoption, particularly in advanced logic and DRAM. Regarding tariffs, he noted that large semiconductor and data center customers manage this themselves. For other areas, the company's manufacturing footprint in Mexico (USMCA compliant) and the Philippines (lower tariff rates) provides a relative advantage, limiting direct exposure.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about Advanced Energy's 2025 semiconductor revenue outlook, specifically whether a 10% year-over-year growth is a good frame of reference for outperforming the market. He also asked if new product designs are closely aligned with the NAND market and questioned if favorable chip pricing could support gross margin expansion.

    Answer

    CEO Stephen Kelley clarified that strong Q4 2024 performance moderated demand into Q1 2025, but confidence in outperforming the market for the full year comes from new product ramps in the second half. He noted that new technologies like eVoS and eVerest are seeing broad adoption across NAND, DRAM, and logic. Regarding component costs, Kelley stated that while prices are generally coming down, it varies by supplier. CFO Paul Oldham added that it's too early to bake material cost improvements into the gross margin plan, though it could become a tailwind.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about the drivers for the Q3 and Q4 Semiconductor revenue upside, the mix between leading and trailing edge, the potential quarterly trend for the semi business in 2025, and whether AI demand could extend the Data Center growth cycle.

    Answer

    CEO Stephen Kelley explained that semiconductor growth was driven by both leading and trailing edge logic nodes, making a precise split difficult. He anticipates 2025 semi growth will be weighted towards the second half, driven by new product ramps. For Data Center, Kelley confirmed that AI is accelerating refresh cycles, which enhances the value of Advanced Energy's power density, efficiency, and reliability.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Ichor Holdings Ltd (ICHR) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Ichor Holdings Ltd (ICHR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked for details on the Q2 gross margin miss, the cause of the hiring and retention issues, the reason for the OpEx uptick, and the outlook for the second half of the year. He also sought clarification on the new flow control qualification and which end market was affected by a customer push-out.

    Answer

    CEO Jeffrey Andreson explained that gross margins were impacted by hiring and retention challenges for off-shift, clean-room positions in their Minnesota facility, which limited the output of machined components. He clarified the OpEx increase was due to higher healthcare costs, not hiring. Andreson projected a very slight, low-single-digit decline in revenue for the second half, attributing it to timing, and confirmed the flow control qualification is for advanced logic applications.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Ichor Holdings Ltd (ICHR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked for details on the revised annual revenue outlook, questioning which semiconductor segments were driving the change, and followed up on the Q1 gross margin miss, inquiring about the execution level of internal sourcing and the progress into Q2.

    Answer

    Executive Jeffrey Andreson explained the revenue outlook change was driven by softness in lithography, non-semi business, and silicon carbide, not core deposition and etch. Regarding gross margins, he attributed the miss to "growing pains" in managing inventory for internally sourced components, stating they achieved about 75-80% of the plan but had to buy more external supply than forecasted. He expressed confidence that the strategy is working and the trajectory will improve.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Ichor Holdings Ltd (ICHR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about the revenue outlook for the remainder of 2025, questioning if the pull-forward of labor costs implied a more bullish view than stated. He also asked about the potential gross margin impact if revenue upside came from legacy gas panels.

    Answer

    Executive Jeffrey Andreson clarified that they anticipate Q2 revenue to be similar to Q1, with a modest increase in the second half. He explained that the resource additions are largely to support the internal ramp of proprietary components, which is outgrowing other revenue streams. Andreson added that while a heavier mix of legacy gas panels could slightly mute margin percentage, improved overhead absorption and the tailwind from new internal supply should effectively offset that mix issue.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Ichor Holdings Ltd (ICHR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin followed up on the NAND recovery, asking if it was alleviating customer inventory overhangs. He also questioned if the flat Q1 2025 revenue outlook was mainly due to a step-down in China WFE and sought confirmation on the 25% incremental gross margin target for 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Jeffrey Andreson explained that for gas panels, there is no lag from NAND demand, but a slight lag may persist for components like weldments. He attributed the flat Q1 outlook more to a rebalancing in lithography and muted silicon carbide demand than just China. Executive Greg Swyt confirmed that modeling at least a 25% incremental gross margin flow-through for 2025 is appropriate.

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    Brian Chin's questions to KLA Corp (KLAC) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to KLA Corp (KLAC) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin of Stifel Financial Corp. asked if KLA's advanced packaging opportunity is still primarily in 2.5D packaging and whether the focus is more on inspection or metrology applications.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Bren Higgins confirmed that most of the share gains to date have been in the logic area with CoWoS (2.5D), but noted that momentum is increasing in HBM. He clarified that the opportunity is currently more 'defect loaded' than metrology, as the larger design rules in packaging limit some metrology applications, while the high cost of failure drives incredibly high sampling rates for inspection to avoid missing defects.

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    Brian Chin's questions to KLA Corp (KLAC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin of Stifel Financial Corp. asked if KLA's near-term advanced packaging opportunity is concentrated more in 2.5D packaging than HBM, and whether the opportunity is primarily in inspection versus metrology.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Bren Higgins confirmed that most share gains to date have been in logic-based CoWoS (2.5D) packaging, though momentum in HBM is increasing. He also affirmed the opportunity is more 'defect loaded,' meaning inspection-heavy, because the high cost of failure drives very high inspection sampling rates, while larger design rules in packaging currently limit some metrology applications.

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    Brian Chin's questions to KLA Corp (KLAC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin from Stifel Financial Corp. inquired about the level of R&D spending from leading-edge logic customers not expanding capacity and asked about the expected process control intensity change moving to the 16A node.

    Answer

    CEO Richard Wallace indicated that spending from these customers was 'derisked' in the 2025 plan, implying minimal contribution. CFO Bren Higgins noted it was too early to model 16A intensity but said underlying trends are favorable. Wallace added that new solutions are sometimes 'back-ported' to older nodes, increasing their intensity, which is a positive dynamic for KLA.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Cohu Inc (COHU) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Cohu Inc (COHU) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin of Stifel Financial Corp. asked for details on the $28 million order, including its quarterly timing and market drivers. He also inquired about the breadth of the business recovery beyond this single order and sought an update on the previously guided $30-40 million revenue contribution from new product wins for the year.

    Answer

    CFO Jeffrey Jones detailed the order's revenue recognition, with $4 million in Q2 and $12 million each in Q3 and Q4. CEO Luis Müller added that the order is for digital mobile applications and represents a business expansion with a key customer. Müller noted that while a seasonal Q4 slowdown is possible, order improvements were seen across most segments, indicating a broader recovery. He also confirmed Cohu is on track to achieve its new product revenue goals for the year.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Cohu Inc (COHU) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about the composition of the Q2 revenue guidance increase, specifically the split between recurring revenue and HBM inspection systems. He also asked if recent orders increased the full-year HBM revenue target and about the potential to add more customers for this application. Finally, he sought to connect the pickup in recurring revenue to potential timing for a recovery in equipment orders.

    Answer

    CFO Jeffrey Jones clarified that the Q2 revenue increase is split roughly 50/50 between systems and recurring revenue. CEO Luis Müller updated the full-year HBM revenue projection to about $8 million and noted that discussions have begun with a second potential customer. Müller explained that the rise in recurring revenue is a positive sign and should precede an improvement in utilization, which would be a key indicator for a broader capital equipment recovery.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Lam Research Corp (LRCX) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Lam Research Corp (LRCX) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin of Stifel Financial Corp. asked for details on the Vantex oxide etch win, specifically if it was for a 400-layer application, and inquired if the Reliant systems business within CSBG has stabilized.

    Answer

    President and CEO Timothy Archer described the Vantex win as a key multi-generational decision, implying it covers current and future nodes, and highlighted its importance for enabling QLC NAND. EVP and CFO Doug Bittinger declined to decompose the forward-looking CSBG guidance but confirmed that upgrades are strong while Reliant is currently down, with the overall CSBG outlook for the year being modest growth.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Lam Research Corp (LRCX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked if a recent Vantex oxide etch win was for a 400-layer NAND application and whether the Reliant systems business within CSBG has now stabilized at a bottom.

    Answer

    President and CEO Timothy Archer described the Vantex win as a key 'multi-generational' decision enabling critical technologies like QLC, but did not specify a layer count. EVP and CFO Douglas Bittinger declined to decompose the CSBG outlook but confirmed that while upgrades are strong, the Reliant business is currently down.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Lam Research Corp (LRCX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about the revenue potential for dry resist deposition, the timing of the announced win, and the impact of wafer bonding in NAND on Lam's spending capture rate.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Douglas Bettinger called the dry resist win a major milestone that will generate revenue this year, though not 'huge dollars' initially. CEO Timothy Archer stated that wafer bonding has a minimal impact on Lam's high capture rate for upgrades, as Lam's core contribution is in the memory stack, and added complexity opens more opportunities for the company.

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    Brian Chin's questions to FormFactor Inc (FORM) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to FormFactor Inc (FORM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin from Stifel Financial Corp. inquired about any residual HBM4 product ramp-up costs in the Q3 gross margin guidance, the potential for current business trends to persist into Q4, and the impact of HBM4's test intensity on future margin potential.

    Answer

    CFO Shai Shahar confirmed that no additional HBM ramp-up costs are assumed in the Q3 outlook, stating the issue was resolved. CEO Michael Slessor addressed broader trends, noting that while PC and mobile markets are tepid, the company is focusing on generative AI-driven areas like GPUs and custom ASICs. He added that HBM4 does offer opportunities for higher ASPs on high-speed cards due to increased test complexity and value delivery.

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    Brian Chin's questions to FormFactor Inc (FORM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin from Stifel inquired if a resurgence in older CPU platforms could dampen revenue potential and asked for an update on the development and adoption of more cost-competitive non-HBM DDR5 probe cards.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Slessor explained that for older designs, customers typically reuse existing probe cards from inventory, so a significant mix shift away from new designs would negatively impact revenue. He confirmed that HBM revenue is expected to grow year-over-year and that the new lower-cost DRAM architecture has shipped in pilot volumes to a beta customer, with the program progressing well.

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    Brian Chin's questions to FormFactor Inc (FORM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin inquired about the confidence in an overall demand increase through 2025 and whether it's reasonable to expect the Foundry & Logic business to return to a run rate of approximately $100 million per quarter, given new designs and customer qualifications.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Slessor affirmed his confidence in 2025 growth, driven by the transition to HBM4 which increases test intensity and complexity. He agreed that a return to a ~$100 million quarterly run rate for Foundry & Logic is a reasonable expectation, supported by a potential PC refresh cycle and revenue contributions from new customer qualifications.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Teradyne Inc (TER) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Teradyne Inc (TER) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin of Stifel asked for an updated sizing of the overall compute TAM and the VIP sub-segment for the current year, and whether Teradyne expects to maintain its 50% share in VIP. He also questioned if the recent uptick in test utilization rates was attributable to any supply chain pull-forward activity.

    Answer

    President & CEO Greg Smith stated that the VIP TAM is tough to call for 2025 due to Q4/Q1 bridging, but agreed there is upward pressure on previous estimates. He confirmed networking is an important and strengthening part of their 2025 compute revenue. He also noted that while customers may have pulled forward demand, it primarily increased utilization rather than driving significant new capacity buys for Teradyne.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Teradyne Inc (TER) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin sought clarification on whether the VIP TAM forecast from the Analyst Day included SLT and asked about the potential timing and impact of onshoring advanced back-end test and packaging facilities to the United States.

    Answer

    CEO Greg Smith confirmed the VIP TAM figures were for semiconductor ATE and did not include SLT, which he estimated could represent an additional 10-30% of that TAM. Regarding onshoring, he explained that while ship-to locations may change, the total demand for testers is driven by end-market chip volume, not manufacturing location, so the overall impact on Teradyne's business should be minimal.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Teradyne Inc (TER) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin requested the SOC test market size for 2024 and the end-market breakdown for the 2025 TAM. He also asked about current test cell utilization rates and the specifics of the robotics go-to-market consolidation.

    Answer

    CFO Sanjay Mehta provided the TAM breakdowns: $4.6B in 2024 and a projected $4.9B in 2025, detailing the compute, mobile, and auto/industrial components. CEO Greg Smith estimated that test utilization rose about 10% year-over-year in 2024 and that the business has passed a tipping point toward system sales over upgrades. He explained the robotics consolidation combines the sales, marketing, and service functions of UR and MiR into a single organization.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Teradyne Inc (TER) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Brian Chin asked for the reason behind the upward revision to the industrial test TAM, a quantification of the mobile installed tester base that has been repurposed for other markets like AI, and the key considerations driving the VIP compute TAM opportunity for next year.

    Answer

    CEO Greg Smith confirmed the industrial TAM revision was due to better visibility into the market in China served by local suppliers. He quantified that over 100 testers have been repurposed to date, with over 200 expected by year-end, leading to higher utilization. For the VIP TAM, he noted the 2024 estimate of $300M was a positive surprise, putting upward pressure on the 2026 target of $500M, but cautioned the market is lumpy and constrained by HBM and advanced packaging availability.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Micron Technology Inc (MU) leadership

    Brian Chin's questions to Micron Technology Inc (MU) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin of Stifel asked to quantify the impact of strong DDR4 pricing on the Q4 gross margin guide and sought clarification on DDR4's revenue exposure. He also questioned if favorable mix shifts would continue to be a tailwind for gross margins into the next quarter (fiscal Q1).

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Mark Murphy stated that while positive, DDR4 pricing is not the primary driver of margin expansion; favorable mix (more DRAM and data center) is more significant. EVP and Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana clarified DDR4 alone is a low single-digit percent of revenue. Mark Murphy confirmed they believe gross margins can expand in the November quarter, citing lean inventories and continued favorable mix.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Micron Technology Inc (MU) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked to quantify the contribution of strong DDR4 pricing to the Q4 gross margin guide and sought clarification on the DDR4 revenue exposure. He also questioned if the favorable product mix shift away from consumer would continue into fiscal Q1, providing a tailwind for margins.

    Answer

    Executive VP & CFO Mark Murphy stated that while positive, DDR4 pricing is not the primary driver of the Q4 margin expansion. EVP and Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana clarified that DDR4 alone is a low single-digit percentage of revenue, while DDR4 and LPDDR4 combined are around 10%. Mark Murphy confirmed the favorable mix shift (more DRAM and data center) in Q4 and suggested gross margins could expand further in November due to lean inventories and a focus on pricing.

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    Brian Chin's questions to Micron Technology Inc (MU) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Brian Chin asked for an update on the enterprise SSD market, including the drivers for the expected Q3 improvement. He also inquired if the competitive pricing pressure from Chinese suppliers on legacy DRAM is diminishing as the industry transitions to DDR5.

    Answer

    Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana explained that customer inventory of data center SSDs was largely depleted in Q1 2025, and ordering patterns are expected to pick up, projecting record aggregate data center revenue in FQ3. Regarding China, Sadana clarified that recent supply pressure was primarily in DDR4/LP4, a segment where only about 10% of Micron's revenue is exposed, and confirmed DDR5 has not been in volume production from those suppliers.

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