Brian Meredith

Brian Meredith from UBS Group AG questioned the timing of additional IPO-related expenses, given the strong Q1 margin performance relative to guidance, and asked if the MGA/wholesale business growth is expected to moderate as insurance markets soften.

Answer

Richard Bunch, an executive at TWFG, noted that while the exact timing for all future public company costs is still being determined, the Q1 margin beat was driven by an uptick in contingencies, which boosted confidence and led to raised guidance. He stated that he expects the MGA program to expand, not moderate, due to ongoing opportunities in fragmented markets like homeowners insurance, especially in catastrophe-prone regions.

Brian Meredith of UBS Group AG asked for the written premium growth of the 'agency-in-a-box' model, adjusted for branch conversions. He also inquired about potential tailwinds in Florida from business moving out of Citizens Property Insurance and the MGA opportunity in California following recent wildfires.

Answer

CFO Janice Zwinggi provided the agency-in-a-box growth rate, stating it was 18.4% for the quarter, excluding branch conversions. Executive Richard Bunch added that Florida now presents an expansion opportunity post-legislative reform, though TWFG's presence is currently small. Regarding California, he said the company is leveraging partners with existing surplus lines capacity rather than launching its own MGA program at this time, but retains the capability to do so if market conditions change.

Brian Meredith asked for an update on the M&A pipeline, including the timing of potential closings and the impact of being a public company, and also inquired about business flow trends in the company's wholesale channel.

Answer

Executive Richard Bunch confirmed that two acquisitions with signed LOIs are expected to close on January 1, 2025. He described the M&A pipeline as 'robust,' noting a 'substantial' increase in opportunities following the IPO. On the wholesale side, he stated that the hard property market in core states is driving an influx of activity and volume into their MGA programs, particularly for homeowners insurance in Texas.

Brian Meredith asked about Fidelis's exposure to Caribbean losses from the recent hurricane in the quarter. He also inquired about the company's partnerships or capabilities to capitalize on insurance opportunities arising from data center construction.

Answer

CEO Dan Burrows acknowledged the tragic event in Jamaica and confirmed some exposure, but stated it was too early for detailed numbers, expecting any net losses to fall within the company's expected cat load. Group Managing Director Jonny Strickle explained that Fidelis leverages its meaningful line size and structure, including reinsurance and the Fidelis Partnership, to proactively participate in large data center construction programs, enabling them to drive pricing, terms, and conditions effectively.

Brian Meredith inquired about Fidelis Insurance Group's exposure to Caribbean losses resulting from the recent hurricane in the quarter. He also asked about the company's partnerships and capabilities specifically designed to capitalize on the insurance opportunities arising from the build-out of data centers.

Answer

CEO Dan Burrows stated that while Fidelis has some exposure to the Caribbean hurricane, it's too early to provide detailed numbers, but initial analysis suggests any net losses would fall within the expected catastrophe load. Group Managing Director Jonny Strickle explained that for data center opportunities, Fidelis leverages its meaningful line size, often grossing up lines with reinsurance, and utilizes its structure with the Fidelis Partnership to combine capacity and negotiate favorable terms and conditions, allowing them to lead the market effectively.

Brian Meredith requested clarification on the $80 million of reinstatement premiums, asking if it was confined to the Reinsurance segment. He also inquired about the current state of rate adequacy and returns in the Property Direct & Facultative (D&F) book.

Answer

CFO Allan Decleir confirmed that the $80 million in reinstatement premiums was 'substantially all' within the Reinsurance segment. CEO Dan Burrows described the Property D&F market as having 'attractive margins' and being nearly as strong as the peak environments of 2023-2024, noting that Fidelis focuses on higher-margin excess layers rather than more competitive primary business.

Brian Meredith with UBS asked about the drop in policy life expectancy (PLE), specifically if it's mix-driven or occurring across all cohorts. He also inquired if the spread between pure premium and average written premium implies anticipated margin compression in personal auto.

Answer

Tricia Griffith, President and CEO, indicated that the PLE drop is mainly across the board, potentially more pronounced in 'Sams' (price-sensitive customers). Pat Callahan, President of Personal Lines, confirmed broad impact, driven by price sensitivity and property product access limits for 'Robinsons'. Tricia Griffith acknowledged that margins could compress if it leads to growth, as the operating goal is to grow as fast as possible at a 96% combined ratio or lower, with unit growth (PIFs, VIFs) being paramount.

Brian Meredith asked about the sustainability of favorable frequency trends and the current relationship between new money yields and book yields in the investment portfolio.

Answer

CEO Susan Griffith attributed the favorable frequency primarily to a strategic mix shift toward more preferred customers. Executive Jonathan Bauer explained that the investment portfolio's book yield is an output of a total return strategy and that current higher rates could increase prospective yields over time.

Brian Meredith asked if the underlying loss ratio improvement in Arch Capital's insurance segment was a direct result of actions taken regarding the MC mid-corp program business runoff, and if further improvements are expected. He also inquired about the potential impact of Bermuda's new substance-based tax credits on Arch.

Answer

François Morin (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer) clarified that the loss ratio improvement was not yet a direct result of the non-renewals, but some benefit and stable loss ratios are expected as the business runs off. Regarding Bermuda's tax credits, he stated it's early to tell, with clarity on transition credits expected by early December. He hopes the impact will be substantial and will share details once the law is finalized.

Brian Meredith inquired about the size of the MCE program business and the remediation timeline, and also asked for an update on potential Bermuda tax credits and their P&L impact.

Answer

CEO Nicolas Papadopoulo and CFO & Treasurer François Morin specified the program business is about one-third of the MCE portfolio, with full earned benefits from remediation expected in 12-18 months. Morin stated there is no official news on Bermuda tax credits but that any such credit would likely be for jobs and would reduce operating expenses rather than affect the tax rate.

Brian Meredith of UBS asked about the potential impact of tariffs on the business, the loss trend assumptions used in GL pricing and reserving, and the current opportunity set for large, structured reinsurance transactions.

Answer

Executive François Morin sees no significant direct impact from tariffs but is monitoring indirect effects. He and executive Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo stated GL loss trends are assumed at 12-14% for excess business and 5-6% for primary E&S. They added that structured deal opportunities are reactive and not actively targeted, typically arising from existing client relationships when a cedent has a specific capital need.

Brian Meredith from UBS asked for Arch's view on casualty loss trends, how it gets comfortable growing in casualty reinsurance, and for an update on investment portfolio yields.

Answer

CEO Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo stated that while loss trends are high in excess layers, Arch's growth is highly selective, focusing on specific pockets it deems profitable. In reinsurance, the strategy is to partner with high-quality cedents it can now access due to market dislocation. Executive François Morin noted new money yields are around 4.5%, similar to the book yield, and the MidCorp assets are being prudently invested.

Brian Meredith inquired about the workers' compensation market, specifically if the recent slight price increases are expected to continue and when rates might align with trends. He also asked for clarification on the underlying loss ratio in business insurance, questioning if non-comp lines are showing improvement despite tort inflation and tariffs, or if comp offsets these gains.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Christopher Swift stated that the workers' compensation market remains consistent, with the slight positive pricing move not being meaningful, and no significant rate increases are expected for 2026. Regarding the business insurance underlying combined ratio, Christopher Swift clarified that the year-over-year difference is primarily due to higher incentive compensation (an expense component), not a loss component, also noting a mix shift towards property and national accounts, and slightly less favorable non-cat property experience.

Brian Meredith from UBS Investment Bank inquired about the outlook for workers' compensation pricing, specifically if the recent positive trend is sustainable and when rates might align with loss trends. He also asked about the underlying loss ratio in business insurance, questioning if deterioration was due to workers' comp or other factors like tort inflation and tariffs.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Chris Swift stated that the workers' compensation market remains consistent with no meaningful rate increases expected for 2026, citing its high profitability and stable loss trends. Regarding the business insurance underlying loss ratio, Mr. Swift clarified that the slight increase was primarily due to higher incentive compensation (an expense component), rather than loss trends, also noting the impact of mixing in more property and national account business. CFO Beth Costello added context on the seasonality of auto results.

Brian Meredith from UBS asked for insights into the commercial property market, questioning if The Hartford is seeing less competition in its growth areas. He also inquired about the dynamic between admitted and E&S markets and the company's view on the role and impact of MGAs.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Christopher Swift and President A. Morris Tooker explained that while large and wholesale property pricing is seeing pressure, their core small-to-midsize property book is holding up well. Tooker noted that E&S submission flows remain strong with no significant pivot back to the admitted market. He acknowledged that MGAs are creating some disruption in certain specialty lines but stated it's not a major impact on their core business.

Brian Meredith of UBS asked about the potential impact of tariffs on loss costs in auto and commercial insurance, and also questioned the reason for the sequential drop in renewal written price increases in the small business segment.

Answer

CEO Christopher Swift stated that tariffs would likely be a one-time step change affecting auto parts and building materials. He expressed confidence that prudent 2025 loss picks could absorb some impact, but the company is prepared to adjust pricing. Regarding small business pricing, Swift and Executive Adin Tooker attributed the sequential dip primarily to the weighting of workers' comp and a marginal decrease in E&S binding premium, noting that pricing ex-comp remains very strong at 12.9%.

Brian Meredith sought to establish a baseline for the commercial lines underlying loss ratio by asking about the impact of favorable non-cat property losses and any current year development from IBNR increases. He also inquired about the company's exposure to the Los Angeles wildfires, including market share and the potential to trigger its catastrophe reinsurance program.

Answer

CEO Christopher Swift quantified the general liability true-up as a 1-point impact on the year-to-date combined ratio and noted that non-cat property experience was favorable by about 0.9 points versus the prior year. Regarding the wildfires, Swift confirmed it is both a commercial and personal lines event, with low personal lines share but a larger commercial presence. CFO Beth Bombara detailed the reinsurance structure, stating it is 'very likely' they will be in the first reinsurance layer which attaches at $200 million, but it is 'not entirely clear' if losses will reach the next layer at $350 million.

Brian Meredith of UBS inquired about The Hartford's general liability (GL) business, asking if the current quarter's increase in the underlying loss ratio included a true-up for prior quarters and whether rising GL development concerns were causing a pause in new business growth in the Middle Market segment.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Christopher Swift explained the GL reserve adjustment was driven by increased attorney representation and higher average settlement costs. CFO Beth Bombara confirmed the current year loss pick included a true-up for the first half of the year. Both Swift and executive Adin Tooker expressed confidence in their new business underwriting, citing advanced data science, pricing tools, and proactive risk management, stating they would not pause growth.

Brian Meredith asked for elaboration on Everest Group's strategy to diversify the company, questioning its importance versus sticking to core competencies. He also inquired about how the ADC reinsurers (Longtail Re) determined the attachment point for the $1.2 billion gross protection.

Answer

Jim Williamson, President and CEO, clarified that diversification involves pursuing opportunities that meet strict capital deployment standards, citing growth in specialties, Asia, and global wholesale/specialty. Regarding the ADC, Mr. Williamson described a collaborative and transparent process with Longtail Re, emphasizing that establishing a stronger reserve base was crucial for securing the $1.2 billion gross limit without a loss corridor.

Brian Meredith inquired about how the Adverse Development Cover (ADC) reinsurers arrived at the attachment point, particularly in relation to the company's adverse development and risk margin.

Answer

Jim Williamson, President and CEO, highlighted the collaborative and rigorous evaluation process with Longtail Re, emphasizing that the deal's structure, including no loss corridor and a strengthened reserve base, reflects confidence in the ultimate loss ratios.

Brian Meredith of UBS Group AG inquired about the increase in PMLs, specifically asking if exposure was added in lower return periods like 1-in-20 or 1-in-50 years. He also asked about the strategy and progress of the international insurance business build-out under new leadership.

Answer

Jim Williamson, President & CEO, clarified that he considers the 1-in-20 to 1-in-50 year layer to be the 'sweet spot' of cat programs, not 'down low,' offering the best risk-adjusted returns. Regarding the international insurance business, Williamson expressed pride in its growth and profitability, stating the strategy has shifted to 'going deeper' in existing markets rather than expanding the geographic footprint, while the core focus on large, specialty commercial risk remains consistent.

Brian Meredith asked about anticipated changes to terms and conditions in midyear property reinsurance renewals and for a holistic view on whether the overall return on capital for the business is improving.

Answer

CEO Jim Williamson stated he expects no degradation in terms and conditions at the midyear renewal, citing continued market discipline as a key factor in sustainability. He concluded that, looking past the near-term impact of conservative loss picks, the underlying economic return on capital for both of Everest's business segments is improving due to favorable market dynamics and mix shift.

Brian Meredith of UBS asked for an update on the expected tax rate for 2025 and the outlook for operating cash flow.

Answer

CFO Mark Kociancic estimated the 2025 effective tax rate for the group to be in the 17% to 18% range, assuming a normal distribution of income. He also stated that he expects operating cash flow to be in a similar range to 2024's approximately $5 billion, with natural catastrophe payments being the largest variable.

Brian Meredith of UBS inquired if the company considered a Loss Portfolio Transfer (LPT) to resolve the reserve issue and asked about operational changes being made to systems, data, and analytics beyond the leadership adjustments.

Answer

Executive James Williamson confirmed they reviewed all options, including an LPT, but concluded their robust capital position made a decisive reserve charge the clearest and best solution. On operations, he stated that while they are always investing in systems and analytics, the core issue was not a lack of data but a lack of 'fortitude' to act on it, a situation that has now been rectified.

Brian Meredith asked about the margin profile and longer-term growth rates across the franchise, corporate, and enterprise channels, and inquired about the number of carriers on the digital agent platform and any carrier resistance.

Answer

Mark Jones (CFO and COO) explained that the enterprise sales business is structured for higher long-term profitability, while the franchise business remains the driving force, and corporate acts as a talent incubator. Mark Miller (President and CEO) clarified that the digital agent has about 12 carriers with quote-to-issue (QTI) connections, and carriers are strongly supportive of the new direct-to-consumer (DTC) digital agent evolution.

Brian Meredith inquired about the margin profiles and long-term growth rates across Goosehead's franchise, corporate, and enterprise channels, and also asked about the number of carriers integrated into the digital agent platform and any carrier resistance.

Answer

Mark Jones (CFO and COO) explained that the enterprise sales business is structured for higher long-term profitability than corporate or franchise, while the franchise business remains the driving force. He noted corporate growth acceleration and strategic focus on launching franchises. Mark Miller (President and CEO) clarified that the digital agent, now called DTC, is integrating with about 12 carriers for quote-to-issue capabilities, with strong carrier support.

Brian Meredith questioned the macroeconomic assumptions embedded in the company's guidance, the reasons for the recent decline in its NPS score, and whether the new share repurchase authorization signals that management views the stock as undervalued.

Answer

CFO Mark Jones Jr. and CEO Mark Miller stated the business is insulated from macro factors like recessions and tariffs. Regarding the NPS score, they attributed the dip to industry-wide client dissatisfaction with rising premiums but noted Goosehead's score remains world-class. Mr. Jones confirmed the share buyback provides optionality to act on market dislocations, as they have in the past.

Brian Meredith asked about the underlying assumptions in the 2025 guidance regarding commission rates (excluding contingents), client retention, and premium retention. He also asked for a timeline on the direct-to-consumer experience.

Answer

CFO Mark Jones Jr. stated that he expects average commission rates to increase as the admitted market heals and carriers incentivize growth. The guidance assumes pricing tailwinds will abate and is conservative on the pace of client retention recovery. CEO Mark Miller added that the company is actively developing a direct-to-consumer offering, likely starting with auto, but did not commit to a specific launch date.

Brian Meredith asked about the competitiveness of Goosehead's products relative to captives in challenging states and whether client retention has hit its lowest point.

Answer

CEO Mark Miller stated that while competition with captives is intense, Goosehead remains competitive, noting that captives are also beginning to raise their prices. He confirmed some carrier partners have temporarily pulled back from certain markets. CFO Mark Jones Jr. addressed retention, suggesting the 84% rate has stabilized due to moderating premium increases and should gradually improve through 2025, assuming pricing remains stable.

Brian Meredith asked about the Chairman's past regret of pulling back too early in a hard market and if a similar debate is occurring now regarding market timing. He also inquired if W. R. Berkley is seeing any impacts from tariffs in its loss picks.

Answer

William Berkley, Executive Chairman, discussed the challenge of assessing ultimate margins and balancing price increases with evolving loss ratios, noting the current environment differs due to increased litigation but still offers growth. Rob Berkley, President and CEO, stated the company is preparing for tariffs but has not yet seen consequential impacts, particularly in property and auto physical damage.

Brian Meredith asked about the debate within W. R. Berkley regarding pulling back too early in a hard market, referencing William Berkley's past regrets. He also inquired about the impact of tariffs on loss picks.

Answer

Rob Berkley (President and CEO) acknowledged the Chairman's past regret. William Berkley (Executive Chairman) explained the challenge of assessing ultimate margins and the impact of increased litigation, stating that opportunities still exist and it's not yet time to retreat, though the market is evolving. Rob Berkley added that the company is preparing for tariffs but has not yet seen consequential impacts, particularly in exposed lines like property and APD.

Brian Meredith of UBS inquired about the competitive dynamics in the private client business and the reasons for the elevated underlying combined ratio in the reinsurance segment.

Answer

President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. stated that the company is gaining traction in the private client space through expertise and value, not by being the cheapest. He attributed the higher reinsurance combined ratio to pressure from high ceding commissions and moderating property reinsurance rates.

Brian Meredith from UBS asked about the competitive dynamics in the private client business and the reasons for the higher underlying combined ratio in the reinsurance segment.

Answer

President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. attributed their success in the private client space to expertise and value rather than price. He explained that the higher reinsurance combined ratio was a result of softening property rates and continued pressure on ceding commissions, which the company is actively managing.

Brian Meredith asked if reinstatement premiums materially contributed to property reinsurance growth. He also posed a question to Bill Berkley about the implications of a stagflationary environment for the commercial insurance industry, drawing on experience from the 1970s.

Answer

Executive W. Berkley confirmed that reinstatement premiums were not material. Executive Chairman William Berkley recalled that the 1970s stagflation involved pricing pressures but the industry adapted by raising rates. He noted that while economic growth was low, rising interest rates were a benefit, and flexible companies performed well in a highly differentiated market.

Brian Meredith of UBS asked if the company is seeing increased competition from standard commercial carriers that are growing their E&S operations. He also requested an update on the Berkley One personal lines business and its outlook for 2025.

Answer

W. Robert Berkley, Jr. (Executive) gave a direct response regarding competition from standard carriers in E&S, stating, 'We don't see them.' Regarding Berkley One, he described it as an exceptional, accretive franchise with a strong team, and expects it to make a 'considerable' contribution to the group's profitability in the 2025 year.

Brian Meredith of UBS Financial asked for quantification of premiums from new, incubating businesses and their potential impact on the expense ratio. He also questioned the outlook for investment fund returns, which have been below historical levels.

Answer

CFO Richard Baio noted that four new operating units contributed over $25 million in net written premium in the quarter. Executive W. Berkley added that as these businesses scale, they will become less dilutive to the expense ratio. For investment funds, which are booked on a lag, he suggested using a run-rate of $10 million per quarter in the short term, with hopes of it returning toward $20 million over time, while cautioning that short-term results can be lumpy.

Brian Meredith asked about the current insurance brokerage M&A environment, specifically if bid-ask spreads are narrowing in a softening market, and if Marsh McLennan retains an appetite for larger-scale M&A deals following the McGriff acquisition. He also inquired about McGriff's current organic growth rate and how it compares to the Marsh U.S. and Canada business.

Answer

President and CEO John Doyle provided an update on McGriff, stating its integration is on plan and expressing continued excitement for its contributions. He confirmed Marsh McLennan's appetite for larger-scale deals but indicated a continued preference for a "string of pearls" approach, focusing on well-led businesses with strong fundamentals and cultural fit. Mr. Doyle suggested that bid-ask spreads might be widening in the current slower growth environment, with PE buyers potentially more willing to pay higher multiples than strategics. He clarified that McGriff's organic growth would not be reported separately but noted that acquired businesses typically experience slowing organic growth in the initial quarters due to integration efforts, though MMA (which includes McGriff) had a strong Q3.

Brian Meredith followed up on the organic growth at McGriff, asking if it is similar to, better than, or worse than the Marsh U.S. and Canada business, especially as it approaches its one-year anniversary.

Answer

John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan, stated that McGriff's organic growth would not be reported separately but is an important part of the U.S. business. He explained that acquisitions typically experience slowing organic growth in the first few quarters due to integration challenges (e.g., system changes, technology, real estate, colleague distraction), which has been observed with McGriff. He expects McGriff to be a significant contributor to MMA going forward, noting MMA's strong Q3 performance.

Brian Meredith asked about the reinsurance market's expected reaction to tort inflation in casualty lines at the January 1 renewals. He also inquired if the flow of business to the non-admitted market is slowing and if McGriff could enhance their position there.

Answer

Dean Klisura, CEO of Guy Carpenter, responded that despite reinsurer concerns over U.S. casualty, he expects market conditions to 'largely prevail' at 1/1, with continued pressure on ceding commissions and rate increases on excess of loss deals. President and CEO John Doyle clarified that MMC is not losing share to the E&S market, as they access it directly, and their strategy is to secure capital as efficiently as possible for clients, preferring admitted solutions when available.

Brian Meredith asked why Jabil expects EV revenue to decline in FY26 despite new programs, given weakness in Europe/U.S. and strength in China. He also inquired about the implications of a competitor's warrant deal with Amazon for the industry and Jabil.

Answer

Steve Borges (EVP - Global Business Units, Jabil) cited volatility, automakers resetting strategies, and long launch times for new platforms, while noting growth with Chinese OEMs. Andy Priestley (EVP - Global Business Units, Jabil) emphasized Jabil's conservative forecasting. Matt Crowley (EVP - Global Business Units, Jabil) stated Jabil was the first EMS to secure warrants with that company, viewing the competitor's deal as redundant and expected due to high demand, expressing no concern for Jabil's position.

Brian Meredith of UBS Group inquired about the recent reinsurance treaty renewal, asking if there were any changes to terms and conditions like ceding commissions or loss corridors. He also asked for management's perspective on the competitive environment, particularly concerning MGAs and MGUs.

Answer

Frank D'Orazio, Director & CEO, responded that there were no material changes to the quota share terms and the ceding commission was 'fairly flat.' He highlighted positive signs such as receiving more offered participation than purchased and adding new reinsurance partners. Regarding competition, he noted that MGAs are most pronounced in the excess property portfolio, commercial auto, and larger excess casualty accounts.

Brian Meredith asked for the specific loss trend assumption for casualty lines, the accident years driving the reserve development, the impact of recent corporate actions on the Specialty Admitted business, and any contingencies in the Enstar agreement.

Answer

CEO Frank D'Orazio stated the 2024 loss trend view is high single-digits and that reserve development was concentrated in the 2019-2021 accident years, primarily in other liability occurrence. He also noted the Specialty Admitted business continues to grow steadily. CFO Sarah Doran and Frank D'Orazio confirmed the Enstar deal only has standard regulatory approval conditions and no contingencies related to Enstar's other corporate activities.

Brian Meredith from UBS inquired about the impact of the insurance rate environment on Corporate Risk & Broking (CRB) growth. He also asked for CEO Carl Hess's perspective on inorganic growth and the company's capacity for larger-scale M&A.

Answer

President of Risk & Broking Lucy Clarke described the softening rate environment as an expected and moderate headwind, noting that WTW does not rely on pricing for growth due to its business mix and client behavior. CEO Carl Hess outlined a disciplined M&A strategy focused on bolt-ons in specialty broking and wealth, while remaining open to larger opportunities that offer compelling returns and a strong strategic and cultural fit, affirming WTW has the capacity to integrate targets.

Brian Meredith of UBS Group questioned the lack of share buybacks in June, the company's current excess capital position, and plans for capital deployment. He also asked for more details on the build-out of the lower middle market (LMM) business, including its current size, growth prospects, and potential for inorganic growth.

Answer

CFO Peter Vogt stated that share buybacks are opportunistic and capital is being deployed into organic growth and technology investments, with $110 million remaining on the authorization. President & CEO Vincent Tizzio added that capital was used to hire new teams and invest in the operating model. On the LMM initiative, Mr. Tizzio described it as a key strategic focus that was a ~$400 million business in 2024, is seeing strong submission growth, and is a cornerstone of the 'How We Work' investment program.

Brian Meredith asked for an update on the Bermuda Deferred Tax Asset (DTA) in light of recent OECD guidance. He also inquired about any changes to the company's ceded reinsurance program at the January 1 renewals and whether the reshaping of the insurance portfolio is now complete.

Answer

CFO Pete Vogt explained that based on OECD guidance, the Bermuda ETA would likely be acceptable for 2025 and 2026, but adjustments may be needed before 2027. President and CEO Vincent Tizzio detailed a successful 1/1 renewal for ceded reinsurance, highlighting improved terms and a larger participation in its cyber program. Tizzio also noted that the delegated component of the portfolio reshaping will extend into the first half of 2025.

Brian Meredith from UBS inquired about the status and potential impact of Bermuda tax credits and asked for an assessment of the discipline of new capital entering the reinsurance market.

Answer

EVP & CFO Robert Qutub reported no change on the Bermuda tax situation, stating a commission is still developing recommendations for an economic tax adjustment (ETA) that would offset cash tax payments, not the effective tax rate. President & CEO Kevin O'Donnell characterized new capital entering the market as disciplined and return-focused.

Brian Meredith asked if the California wildfire loss would impact pricing for non-California programs like those in Florida, and whether the company would need to raise additional third-party capital for its joint ventures.

Answer

CEO Kevin O'Donnell stated that Florida rates are expected to rise due to Hurricane Milton, and more broadly, he anticipates a reversal of the rate reductions seen at January 1. He also confirmed that the company's third-party capital vehicles are all well-capitalized and do not have an immediate need to raise new funds, noting they have strong access to capital and can manage their needs internally, for instance by redeploying a dividend within DaVinci.

Brian Meredith asked for an update on the Tokio Marine adverse development cover, specifically how much remains and if it is impacting reserve development. He also inquired about the company's expectations for property retrocessional (retro) capacity availability heading into 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Kevin O'Donnell declined to disclose specific details on the Tokio Marine cover but confirmed it is a "last to pay" cover that remains available and unpaid. On the retro market, O'Donnell stated that while it's a tough call, the limited impact from this year's catastrophe events is a good sign for stable capacity. He anticipates RenRe will likely purchase slightly less retro coverage in 2025 but believes it will be available.

Brian Meredith from UBS asked if North American commercial lines are at peak margins given pricing trends, and inquired about the potential spillover of medical cost inflation from healthcare into P&C lines like workers' comp.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Evan Greenberg cautioned against a simplistic view on margins, highlighting that strong casualty pricing and a favorable business mix shift offset property pricing weakness, so he does not foresee significant deterioration. On medical inflation, he stated that the drivers in workers' comp are different from health insurance and that Chubb's reserving already uses conservative loss cost trend factors.

Brian Meredith from UBS Group asked if North American commercial margins have peaked given pricing trends, and inquired about the potential spillover of medical cost inflation from healthcare to workers' compensation.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Evan Greenberg advised against a simplistic view on margins, noting that while property pricing is negative, casualty pricing is ahead of trend and financial lines are firming. He added that a mix shift to middle market business also supports margins. On medical inflation, he stated that the drivers in workers' comp are different from general healthcare, and Chubb's reserving already uses conservative trend factors, so they are not seeing the same pressures.

Brian Meredith inquired about any changes to the global property cat reinsurance program that renewed on April 1. He also asked how Chubb approaches capital allocation in politically contentious regions, such as China.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Evan G. Greenberg confirmed the reinsurance program renewal was fairly similar to what was previously disclosed. On capital allocation, he described the strategy as 'steady as she goes,' emphasizing a long-term investment approach. While mindful of geopolitical volatility, he stated that Chubb has not been investing additional capital in China and is currently focused on organic growth and investing in its high-yielding fixed income portfolio.

Brian Meredith asked for details on the $1.5 billion California wildfire loss estimate, including its components, and inquired about the outlook for organic growth in 2025 versus potential inorganic opportunities.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Evan G. Greenberg clarified that the $1.5 billion wildfire loss is a ground-up estimate from on-the-ground adjusters, includes a FAIR Plan assessment, and does not factor in potential subrogation. Regarding growth, he acknowledged the logic for mid-to-high single-digit organic growth was reasonable but did not provide formal guidance, stating that inorganic growth remains opportunistic.

Brian Meredith from UBS asked for an outlook on property lines and 1/1 renewals given recent catastrophe activity, and requested details on the $59 million of adverse development in general casualty.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Evan G. Greenberg stated that property pricing remains firm in the middle market, while the large account E&S segment faces some rate pressure from new capital, particularly from London. Regarding reserves, he specified the adverse development was from accident years 2019-2022 and primarily related to excess casualty, which was part of a mixed result across long-tail classes.

Brian Meredith of UBS asked about the impact of tort inflation on Business Insurance underlying loss picks and why margins were still improving despite it. He also inquired if Personal Auto retention is expected to trend back toward its historical mid-80s level.

Answer

CEO Alan Schnitzer confirmed that tort inflation is ongoing but is factored into their loss picks and pricing, with the entire market appearing to price for it. Michael Klein, President of Personal Insurance, acknowledged that auto retention at 82% is a few points below historical levels and has not recovered as expected due to the competitive environment, but improving it remains a focus.

Brian Meredith inquired about the impact of tort inflation on underlying loss picks in Business Insurance and whether Personal Auto retention is expected to recover to historical mid-80s levels.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Alan Schnitzer affirmed that tort inflation is significant and is factored into their pricing, which the market appears to be accepting. Michael Klein, President of Personal Insurance, acknowledged that auto retention remains below historical levels due to a competitive environment but that returning to growth remains a key focus.

Brian Meredith asked about the effect of tort inflation on underlying loss picks in Business Insurance and whether Personal Auto retention is expected to trend back toward historical mid-80s levels.

Answer

CEO Alan Schnitzer confirmed that tort inflation is ongoing and is factored into their pricing, which the market appears to be accepting. Michael Klein, President of Personal Insurance, acknowledged that auto retention at 82% is below their historical 84% level, attributing the lag in recovery to the competitive environment but affirming their focus on improving it.

Brian Meredith of UBS sought clarification on how to calculate the remaining amount on the catastrophe program deductible. He also asked about the potential impact of changing economic activity and government spending on the Surety bond business.

Answer

Daniel Frey, CFO, explained that for catastrophe events over $100 million, the amount exceeding that threshold erodes the $4 billion aggregate deductible. Jeffrey Klenk, President of Specialty Insurance, addressed the Surety question, acknowledging the government component in large projects but expressing confidence in continued demand from infrastructure investments and the high credit quality of their contractor book.

Brian Meredith inquired whether Business Insurance margins are at a peak and asked for an update on the tort environment.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Alan Schnitzer acknowledged the 'terrific' margins but stopped short of forecasting their direction, highlighting strong pricing and market stability. Regarding the tort environment, he noted it remains a key issue but pointed to positive developments, such as legislative action in some states and new rules on third-party litigation financing disclosure.

Brian Meredith asked if achieving rate adequacy in personal auto means policy count growth should be expected soon and also inquired about the pricing outlook for workers' compensation.

Answer

Michael Klein, President of Personal Insurance, explained that while new auto business is growing in many states, overall growth is still tempered by actions in challenging states and the cross-line impact of managing property exposure. Greg Toczydlowski, President of Business Insurance, expects workers' comp pricing to remain stable, with 2025 loss cost recommendations similar to 2024.

Brian Meredith of UBS Securities questioned the specific impact of increased California minimum liability limits on written premium growth and inquired about the company's M&A strategy given its strong liquidity.

Answer

President and CEO Joseph Lacher quantified the California minimum limit change as contributing 6-7 points to written premium growth, noting the overall 24% growth rate would likely moderate to the high teens. Regarding M&A, Lacher reiterated capital priorities focused first on organic growth, then on strategic inorganic opportunities that improve the franchise, and finally on returning capital to shareholders, stating Kemper is 'playing offense' from a position of strength.

Brian Meredith of UBS inquired about quantifying the premium lift from California's increased minimum auto limits, the drivers of adverse development in the Commercial Auto line, and the company's long-term strategy regarding its significant business concentration in California.

Answer

CEO Joseph Lacher detailed that the CA limit change would increase relevant liability premiums by about 30%, equating to a 15-16% lift on total CA premium without impacting margins. He and CFO Bradley Camden clarified that the Commercial Auto development was a minor year-end reserve adjustment for extra contractual obligations (ECOs), not a change in underlying trends. Lacher also explained that Kemper is actively diversifying its geographic mix by growing faster outside of California, rather than shrinking its profitable operations within the state.

Brian Meredith of UBS questioned the growth outlook for Q4 after it exceeded expectations in Q3, asked about underlying claims frequency trends, and requested an update on the reciprocal exchange rollout.

Answer

CEO Joseph Lacher noted that heightened consumer shopping is offsetting typical seasonality, but declined to give a specific Q4 forecast, expressing confidence in H1 2025. EVP & CFO Bradley Camden confirmed that frequency trends remain favorable. Lacher added the reciprocal exchange rollout is proceeding, albeit slightly slower than first projected.

Brian Meredith asked for details on North America commercial growth, specifically the gross written premium growth, to understand the impact of ceded reinsurance and assess sustainability. He also requested updated thoughts on casualty loss trends in light of recent legislative developments.

Answer

Peter Zaffino, Chairman and CEO, and executive Donald Bailey clarified that while Q1 net written premium growth benefited from property reinsurance, the underlying growth in casualty and programs is strong and sustainable. Zaffino added that they have not yet adjusted casualty loss cost assumptions based on recent developments but will review them mid-year.

Brian Meredith of UBS asked for an update on market conditions and organic growth opportunities in casualty lines, and questioned AIG's long-term ROE aspirations relative to peers.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Peter Zaffino confirmed strong growth opportunities, which executive Donald Bailey elaborated on, highlighting balanced growth in North America, robust submission activity in Lexington (E&S), and a flight to quality in the expanding E&S market. Regarding ROE, Peter Zaffino outlined a clear path to achieving 10% in 2025 through multiple levers, including underwriting discipline, capital management, net investment income growth, and expense savings from the AIG Next initiative.

Brian Meredith asked for an update on Florida legislation aimed at reversing recent tort reforms and inquired about the outlook for the MGA business, given strong carrier appetite.

Answer

Executive J. Powell Brown stated that there is not significant interest in the Florida state senate or the governor's office for implementing the proposed legislative rollbacks. Regarding the MGA business, Brown explained that carrier interest remains high due to the potential for large premium blocks and the improved quality and data analytics of modern MGAs. He believes carrier interest will continue to grow.

Brian Meredith asked about the potential impact on contingent commissions in the fourth quarter from the recent hurricanes, Helene and Milton.

Answer

R. Watts, an executive, indicated that the full impact is still being determined, particularly for Hurricane Milton, but that some negative adjustments in Q4 are probable. J. Powell Brown, an executive, added context, noting significant auto losses from the storms and that property damage was highly correlated to structures built with older, less stringent building codes.

Brian Meredith requested a breakout of 2025 organic growth expectations by specialty (wholesale, binding, underwriting) and asked if current leverage levels would slow M&A activity.

Answer

CFO Janice Hamilton stated the company does not guide by specialty but noted all are capable of double-digit growth, with delegated authority being a key growth area due to recent M&A. Regarding M&A, Janice Hamilton and CEO Tim Turner clarified that leverage would not be a constraint, pointing to ample borrowing capacity. They emphasized that the pace of M&A is dictated by finding assets that meet their strategic and cultural criteria.

Brian Meredith asked about the 2025 pricing outlook for Global Housing given recent catastrophe losses and the status of the catastrophe reinsurance program. He also requested a preview of the 2025 outlook for Global Lifestyle, focusing on the impact of new programs.

Answer

President and CEO Keith Demmings stated that the reinsurance program is in a favorable position as the reinsurance tower has not been utilized, suggesting stable pricing for 2025. For Global Lifestyle, he anticipates accelerated growth in 2025 as 2024 investments begin to yield revenue, alongside growth in the auto business from rate increases and moderating inflation. CFO Keith Meier added that the reinsurance program's retention will likely remain at the 1-in-5 probable maximum loss point. Demmings also noted that solid underlying growth is expected in Housing for 2025.