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    Britta Schmidt • Autonomous Research

    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership

    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research questioned the adequacy of the 12% CET1 target ratio compared to peers, asked how the plan's cost growth compares to inflation, and sought clarification on the profit trajectory, suggesting a potential 'hockey stick' shape towards 2028.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç defended the 12% CET1 target, highlighting that BBVA's capital buffer over its regulatory requirement is wider than the peer average. Global Head of Finance Luisa Gómez Bravo noted cost growth is projected to be well below inflation. Genç refuted the 'hockey stick' profit growth theory, attributing steady improvement to stabilizing interest rates in core markets, not just a late-cycle recovery in hyperinflationary economies.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Britta Schmidt of Autonomous Research asked about Mexico, questioning the Net Interest Margin outlook given the short-term nature of loan growth and the size of recent severance payments. She also requested updates on the recognition of the 2024 Spanish bank tax and the status of the Sabadell transaction.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç confirmed all lending, regardless of duration, must meet profitability hurdles. He disclosed a severance program in Mexico affected 5% of staff and accounted for about 3 percentage points of the quarter's cost growth. CFO Maria Gomez Bravo stated they are in a 'wait and see' mode on the 2024 Spanish tax. Onur Genç added that the Sabadell deal is in its final stages with the competition authority (CNMC), with a decision expected in the coming days.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research asked about the profitability of the short-term loan growth in Mexico and inquired about severance payments made there. She also sought clarification on the recognition of the 2024 Spanish bank tax and requested an update on the Sabadell deal.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç confirmed all loan growth, short or long-term, must meet strict profitability hurdles. He revealed a severance program in Mexico affecting 5% of staff (around 2,500 people), with the related one-off costs accounting for about 3% of the 11.7% YoY cost growth in the region. CFO Maria Gomez Bravo stated they are in a 'wait and see' mode on the 2024 Spanish tax legislation. Onur Genç added that the Sabadell deal is in the final stages of review by the Spanish competition authority (CNMC).

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Britta Schmidt of Autonomous Research questioned if the guided deceleration in Mexican loan growth was cautious, and asked for the expected capital generation in basis points for 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Onur Genç clarified that the Mexico guidance is based on a pessimistic 1% GDP growth scenario and that the country's underleveraged economy supports strong growth, hinting at a potential guidance upgrade. On capital generation, he explained that the priority is deploying capital to profitable growth, which consumed 156 bps in 2024. He emphasized that tangible book value growth is the key metric, not a specific bps generation target.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership

    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Britta Schmidt asked about the level of customer spread needed to stimulate loan volume growth in Spain and questioned the specific macro conditions required for the recent Brazil provision to be released or utilized.

    Answer

    CEO Héctor Grisi Checa stated that weak loan volumes in Spain are a conscious choice due to intense, unprofitable competition, and that Santander will increase volumes when spreads normalize. He noted the focus is currently on more profitable segments like credit cards. CFO José García Cantera explained the Brazil provision addresses stress in leveraged companies due to high rates. He indicated that an improving outlook, driven by expected interest rate cuts and continued strong employment, would be the key factors for the provision's future treatment.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Britta Schmidt inquired about Brazil's new 'product payable' initiative and its competitive impact, and also requested updates on the U.K. motor finance case provisions and trends in the U.K. mortgage market.

    Answer

    Executive Hector Blas Grisi Checa stated there are no plans to modify the provision for the U.K. motor finance case. CFO José Antonio García Cantera noted a constructive outlook for the U.K. mortgage market, with rising loan yields and falling deposit costs improving margins. Regarding the new payroll lending rules in Brazil, he believes it's a positive move for activity but is awaiting further details for a full assessment.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research pointed out the apparent disconnect between management's optimistic commentary on NII in Spain, the U.K., and Brazil, and the unchanged official group targets for 2024. She also asked to explain the delta between the double-digit customer revenue growth guidance and the mid-single-digit total group revenue target.

    Answer

    CFO José García Cantera explained the delta in revenue guidance is due to non-customer items, primarily the significant negative monetary adjustment from hyperinflation in Argentina, which was EUR 600 million in Q1 alone. CEO Héctor Grisi reiterated his optimism on underlying trends and confirmed the bank will meet its 16% RoTE target for the year, which is the key guidance.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership

    Britta Schmidt's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research requested a breakdown of the deposit cost guidance between Spain and Portugal, more specifics on the cautious cost of risk outlook, and updates on the timing for the pending share buyback and future distribution announcements.

    Answer

    Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche (executive) reiterated that the cost of risk caution is due to general global turmoil, not specific internal data, and the bank is very comfortable with its guidance. Javier Pano Riera (executive) explained that in Portugal, the weight of interest-bearing deposits is higher, but the cost evolution is similar to Spain. He stated that decisions on additional distributions are not necessarily year-end events and can be announced when a sufficient capital buffer exists. He also confirmed the company retains discretion on the timing of the next buyback execution.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Britta Schmidt of Autonomous Research asked for the underlying cost of risk excluding overlays, the drivers for the 'other provisions' line running ahead of guidance, and whether more action is needed to reduce interest rate risk sensitivity (IRRBB) in light of new Basel proposals.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar expressed an upbeat view on cost of risk, seeing more upside than downside. He noted that the driver of 'other provisions'—mortgage setup claims—is now trending down. CFO Javier Pano confirmed the prior guidance for this line remains valid and explained that IRRBB sensitivity is being managed organically through fixed-rate mortgage origination and active hedging, ensuring compliance with future parameters.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Britta Schmidt of Autonomous Research asked for the underlying cost of risk excluding overlays and the new default definition impact. She also inquired about the drivers for the higher run-rate of 'other provisions' and whether the bank needs to decrease its IRRBB sensitivity due to new Basel proposals.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar conveyed a positive message on cost of risk, stating that developments are better than expected and the bank sees more potential upside than downside. He noted that the increase in 'other provisions' from mortgage claims is now trending down. CFO Javier Pano confirmed the guidance for 'other provisions' remains valid and stated the bank will manage its IRRBB sensitivity through organic evolution (fixed-rate mortgages) and hedging activities to stay within required parameters.

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    Britta Schmidt's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Britta Schmidt requested an outlook for NII in Portugal given deposit competition, a breakdown of front-book lending yields and deposit costs, and a timeline for when pressure on banking fees would ease and return to growth.

    Answer

    CFO Javier Pano explained that NII from the Portuguese BPI unit will likely be negative year-on-year due to higher deposit costs there, though the competitive situation has calmed. He noted front-book deposit costs are around 3%. On banking fees, he stated they are 'getting closer to the bottom' on pressure from account fee waivers, which should help the overall fee line stabilize.

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