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Bruce Lu

Vice President and Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Bruce Lu is a Vice President and Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs specializing in semiconductor research, with a focus on major Taiwanese companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), United Microelectronics (UMC), and ASE Technology Holding. He has built a strong performance track record, achieving a 75% success rate and an average return of approximately 15% on stock recommendations, with some metrics indicating up to a 32% annualized return and a high ratio of accurate price targets. Since joining Goldman Sachs, Lu has been recognized for his ability to deliver actionable equity research in the technology sector, with prior experience details not publicly disclosed. He holds relevant professional analyst credentials and is ranked in the top 25% of global equity analysts by independent platforms such as TipRanks.

Bruce Lu's questions to TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO (TSM) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Bruce Lu referenced a customer's forecast of a $3-4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity by 2030, implying a 40% CAGR similar to TSMC's AI growth guidance. He asked for TSMC's specific forecast for AI infrastructure growth and token growth over the next five years, and if TSMC's AI-related revenue growth would track or even exceed the CapEx growth of major cloud service providers given the value TSMC captures. He followed up, pointing out that the exponential token growth rate appears substantially higher than TSMC's AI-related revenue CAGR, suggesting a widening gap over time, and asked how TSMC addresses this discrepancy and if it's considered a major issue.

Answer

CEO Che-Chia Wei confirmed that the mid-40% CAGR for AI demand aligns with major customers' forecasts, not including all infrastructure build-up. He stated that token growth is exponential, increasing almost every three months, which reinforces the demand for leading-edge semiconductors. He reiterated that TSMC is working hard to narrow the demand-supply gap. Che-Chia Wei explained that the discrepancy between token growth and TSMC's AI revenue CAGR is resolved by continuous technological improvement and node migration. As customers move to more advanced nodes, they can handle significantly more tokens more efficiently, and TSMC's technology combined with customer design changes can meet the exponential growth in token consumption.

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Question · Q2 2025

Bruce Lu asked for details on the N2 node's ramp profile and expected revenue contribution, questioning why it would be similar to N3 given strong HPC and smartphone demand. He also inquired about the supply-demand outlook for N5 and N3 nodes over the next two years.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Dr. C.C. Wei explained that the N2 ramp profile is limited by the physical capacity to build new fabs, making it similar to N3, but its revenue contribution will be larger due to higher pricing. He confirmed that both N3 and N5 nodes will be 'very tight' for the next couple of years due to strong AI demand, and that TSMC is leveraging tool commonality to convert capacity between nodes to manage the demand.

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Bruce Lu's questions to ASE Technology (ASX) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Bruce Lu inquired about the strategic initiatives being considered to counter currency headwinds and improve margins, including potential pricing strategy changes. He also asked about the expected mix of packaging versus testing in AI-related business for 2026, the updated CapEx forecast for 2025, and whether the U.S. is a priority for overseas investment.

Answer

COO Tien Wu detailed that strategic initiatives involve resource recalibration, optimizing floor space and capital deployment, which inherently improves margins. He noted that while pricing is always an option, the focus is on technical strength and long-term partnerships. For overseas expansion, the strategy is to focus on one or two areas with larger investments. CFO Joseph Tung confirmed an increase in the 2025 machinery CapEx forecast by $300-400 million, primarily for leading-edge capacity, with about 60% for assembly and 30% for test.

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Bruce Lu's questions to UNITED MICROELECTRONICS (UMC) leadership

Question · Q2 2024

Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs questioned why a competitor is successfully building new 12-inch capacity in Singapore with customer commitments, while UMC has existing capacity and a strong process. He also asked about the technology roadmap for display driver ICs, specifically the timeline for migrating from 22nm to FinFET and the suitability of the Intel partnership.

Answer

President Jason Wang stated that UMC is comfortable with its capacity situation and has a competitive and broad offering, attributing competitor moves to a changing landscape driven by geopolitical tensions and regionalization. Regarding display drivers, Wang highlighted UMC's leadership with its 22nm eHV platform, which is already in production, and noted that a FinFET-based solution is under development but a 2026 migration seems early. He affirmed the 12nm Intel partnership will serve many applications beyond just high-voltage.

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