Bruno Amorim

Bruno Amorim requested expectations for the quarterly evolution of production, EBITDA, and free cash flow for 2026, following the reconfirmation of the full-year guidance.

Answer

Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Vista Energy, detailed the 2026 plan, including 80-90 tie-ins, with 20-22 in Q1. Production was 132k BOE/day in February, expected to surpass 140k BOE/day in March. Q1 production is expected to be flattish or slightly below Q4 2025, with strong momentum into Q2, substantial sequential growth in Q2, flat in Q3, and another step up in Q4, reiterating 140k BOE/day guidance (excluding Equinor). Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.9 billion (excluding Equinor) expects Q1 to be flattish or slightly lower than Q4 2025, increasing steadily to an annualized run rate of $2 billion in Q4 (assuming $65 Brent). Free cash flow is expected to be positive ($150 million-$200 million at $65 Brent) for 2026, but Q1 is expected to be negative, turning positive in Q2 and onward.

Bruno Amorim requested expectations for the quarterly evolution of production, EBITDA, and free cash flow during 2026, following the reconfirmation of the full-year guidance.

Answer

Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Vista Energy, outlined that Q1 2026 production would be flattish or slightly below Q4 2025, with strong momentum into Q2, followed by substantial sequential growth in Q2, relatively flat Q3, and another step up in Q4, reiterating 140,000 BOEs/day guidance (excluding Equinor). He projected Q1 EBITDA to be flattish or slightly lower than Q4, increasing steadily to an annualized run rate of $2 billion in Q4 (assuming $65 Brent). Free cash flow is expected to be negative in Q1, turning positive in Q2 and onward, targeting $150-$200 million for the year.

Bruno Amorim of Goldman Sachs asked about the maximum production level Vista could achieve by the end of the following year, considering its pipeline system capacity.

Answer

CEO Miguel Galuccio stated that while 2026 guidance is not yet public, Vista's current transportation capacity allows for production up to 144,000 barrels per day. He added that with the completion of the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, expected in mid-2027, total capacity will increase to 200,000 barrels per day. Galuccio also announced an Investor Day in Q4 2025 to provide long-term guidance.

Bruno Amorim asked if the Petronas acquisition would alter plans for Vista's existing assets or if the new and old operations should be viewed as independent.

Answer

Miguel Galuccio, Chairman and CEO, clarified that Vista is developing a single, revised plan that integrates the new asset with existing operations. He emphasized that the new plan will be more robust, with a focus on protecting the balance sheet, maintaining healthy leverage, and benefiting from a stronger free cash flow profile. A comprehensive new guidance will be issued in Q2.

Bruno Amorim asked for commentary on the overall M&A environment in Vaca Muerta, particularly regarding assets that might become available from departing foreign players.

Answer

CEO Miguel Galuccio described Vista's M&A approach as pragmatic, disciplined, and opportunistic, with a continued focus on Vaca Muerta shale oil. He mentioned that the company has called a shareholder meeting to ensure it is prepared for potential M&A activity and will evaluate all relevant opportunities that arise.

Bruno Amorim inquired about AXIA Energia's capital allocation focus, specifically whether it prioritizes dividends for shareholders or other investment opportunities. He also requested clarification on the methodology for dividend payouts, particularly how net debt, EBITDA, leverage, and asset sales are factored in.

Answer

Ivan Monteiro, CEO, noted that increased cash flow predictability provides more room for capital allocation. Elio Wolff, VP of Strategy and Business Development, outlined investment priorities in transmission (reinforcements, improvements, auctions) and future capacity auctions. Eduardo Haiama, CFO, explained the conservative dividend methodology, which excludes unfinalized M&A or uncontracted assets, ensuring financial robustness and considering signed contracts and price outlooks.

Bruno Amorim inquired about AXIA Energia's capital allocation focus, specifically whether it prioritizes dividends or other investments, and requested clarification on the dividend payout methodology, including the role of leverage and the consideration of assets available for sale.

Answer

Ivan Monteiro, CEO of AXIA Energia, clarified that assets not yet traded are not included in the dividend methodology. Elio Wolff, VP of Strategy and Business Development at AXIA Energia, highlighted investment focus on transmission reinforcements, improvements, and profitable auctions. Eduardo Haiama, CFO of AXIA Energia, explained the conservative dividend methodology, which includes signed contracts and finalized M&A, ensuring financial robustness.

Bruno Amorim inquired about Eletrobrás's hedging strategy to mitigate the impact of price mismatches between subregions and asked about the company's liquidity to secure contracts at the more attractive recent prices for 2025 and 2026.

Answer

Executive Eduardo Haiama acknowledged that the Q1 hedging strategy, which anticipated low prices, was incorrect due to a significant price mismatch between subregions. He stated the company has reversed its position to capitalize on higher prices. Executive Ivan de Souza Monteiro added that this new strategy should more than offset the Q1 impact and confirmed the company has sufficient liquidity to execute sales for 2026 and 2027.

Bruno Amorim questioned the investment outlook for asset improvements over the next four years and the expected EBITDA to free cash flow conversion, considering the balance between paying down liabilities and funding value-accretive renovations.

Answer

Eduardo Haiama, VP of Finance, and other executives emphasized that the primary investment priority is ensuring asset safety and operational longevity for the next 30 years. They described a cautious capital allocation strategy that balances safety with opportunities in the energy transition, aiming to provide attractive returns to shareholders rather than maximizing immediate free cash flow.

Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs asked CEO Carlos Piani for his assessment of SABESP one year after privatization, inquiring about where value creation opportunities have exceeded expectations and where challenges have been greater than anticipated.

Answer

CEO Carlos Augusto Leone Piani stated that the opportunity at SABESP is immense and that the transformation is progressing well. He noted that the biggest unexpected challenge has been the 'heated' São Paulo economy, which has created intense demand for labor and services. He described the primary management challenge as balancing the market's demand for efficiency commitments with the need to meet concrete annual universalization targets, a balance he believes the company has managed well so far.

Bruno Amorim requested more details on SABESP's strategy to reduce personnel costs and questioned if these reductions would lead to an increase in other costs, such as third-party services.

Answer

Executive Daniel Szlak outlined the 'Sabesp Gente' program, focusing on internal mobility, external hiring at lower average costs, and replacing critical roles. He suggested that third-party service costs might actually decrease, as the company can now hire directly for roles that were previously outsourced.

Bruno Amorin from Goldman Sachs asked for an update on Copel's forward-looking strategic vision, including key areas of interest for growth and capital allocation, and questioned the timing for potential M&A activity.

Answer

CEO Daniel Claviero detailed the company's progress on its commitments, including brand renewal, cost reductions, and portfolio optimization. He stated that current priorities are the Novo Mercado migration, the 2026 tariff review, and achieving a 20% cost reduction. Mr. Claviero emphasized that there is no rush for transformational M&A, with a view towards such movements from 2027 onwards, as the company focuses on extracting value from its current asset base and strengthening its corporate culture.

Bruno Amorim inquired about Copel's primary growth and capital allocation priorities following the new policy and recent board appointments. He also asked if it would be logical for the company to operate with leverage slightly above the 2.8x target, given the contracted deleveraging expected from the upcoming tariff review.

Answer

Executive Daniel Slaviero acknowledged that ending 2025 with leverage slightly above the 2.8x target is a reasonable possibility due to strong deleveraging prospects. He emphasized a long-term view for M&A, stating the current focus for 2025-2026 is on operational efficiency, executing the investment plan, and derisking through the tariff review, noting that 'time is on our side' as the company is still undervalued.

Bruno Amorim inquired about Copel's capital allocation strategy, specifically how the company balances short-term balance sheet optimization against maintaining flexibility for future opportunities, given the expected EBITDA growth. He also asked about the current energy price environment and the liquidity available for contracting at higher prices.

Answer

CEO Daniel Slaviero and CFO Felipe Gutterres addressed the questions. Slaviero stated that while the company's covenant is 3.5x, they are comfortable operating higher. The priority remains value-accretive investments, but in their absence, the company will use buybacks and dividends to prevent deleveraging below the current ~2.5x level. Gutterres added that a study on the optimal capital structure and a simplified dividend policy will be presented with Q1 results. Regarding energy prices, Slaviero confirmed Copel is actively capitalizing on price volatility, contracting energy for 2026-2029 at favorable rates with adequate market liquidity.

Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs followed up on capital allocation, asking about the company's target leverage levels and potential areas for growth and investment outside of its current portfolio, including different geographies or sectors.

Answer

Executive Daniel Slaviero clarified that the current leverage of ~1.9x Net Debt/EBITDA is artificially low due to cash held for upcoming grant bonus and severance payments; the pro-forma figure is closer to 2.5-2.8x. He stated that the optimal leverage target is still under review. For growth, Slaviero emphasized that the immediate priority is extracting more value from existing assets, such as through the capacity auction. While open to opportunities beyond its current 10-state footprint, he noted no concrete expansion plans are currently being pursued, and capital allocation could also involve share buybacks or increased dividends.

Bruno Amorim inquired about Petrobras's capital allocation strategy, including potential M&A for the RLAM refinery, and whether the current investment plan requires adjustments due to lower oil prices.

Answer

Fernando Melgarejo, Executive Director of Finance and Investor Relations, stated there were no new developments regarding the RLAM refinery and that all M&A must meet return criteria. He emphasized that the company's strategic plan is designed for price volatility, with projects tested at $45/barrel and a portfolio breakeven of $28/barrel, so no changes to the CapEx plan are currently needed.

Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. questioned the competitive dynamics in fuel distribution, asking if the consistent market share gains by smaller players are due solely to illegal practices or if there are also new, legitimate competitive forces. He also requested more detail on the strategic plan for Hidrovias.

Answer

An Ultrapar executive confirmed that both informal practices and a new market dynamic are at play. He explained that Ipiranga's share loss is concentrated in the low-margin spot market, which is heavily influenced by imports, and the company must adapt. Regarding Hidrovias, the strategy is twofold: to enhance operational efficiency and productivity of existing assets, and to pursue an expansion plan focused on growth opportunities in the North region.

Bruno Amorim asked what factors might trigger a shift from the current focus on the existing portfolio towards new investments. He also questioned what debt service coverage ratio would make the company comfortable enough to consider investments outside its current business lines.

Answer

Executive Rodrigo Alves reiterated that a debt service coverage ratio closer to 1.5x would provide more stability and allow for organic deleveraging. He stressed the importance of focus, given the complexity and structural nature of projects already in the pipeline. Alves emphasized that the priority is to execute well on the current portfolio to maintain or improve its quality, making new investments a lower priority for now.