Bruno Montanari

Bruno Montanari inquired about Vista's broader capital allocation strategy, particularly how the company plans to utilize increasing cash generation in 2026 and beyond, considering options like accelerating drilling, pursuing M&A, or returning cash to shareholders.

Answer

Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Vista Energy, stated that current activity levels (4-5 rigs) are near optimum for existing assets, and while some wells might be added if oil prices exceed assumptions, no material change is expected. He outlined the capital allocation framework presented at Investor Day: buybacks, dividends, M&A, and debt reduction, emphasizing flexibility in splitting between these options.

Bruno Montanari asked for a broad perspective on capital allocation, specifically how Vista plans to use incremental cash generated in 2026 and beyond, considering options like accelerating drilling, pursuing acquisitions, or distributing cash to shareholders.

Answer

Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Vista Energy, stated that the company is near its optimal activity level with 4-5 rigs and a 15-year inventory life. He mentioned that most cash would be allocated through the capital allocation framework (buybacks, dividends, M&A, debt reduction), maintaining flexibility based on available options.

Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley inquired about the differences in well costs and Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) between the newly acquired La Amarga Chica block and Vista's operated Bajada Del Palo (BPO) block, and questioned how Vista could enhance performance in a non-operated asset.

Answer

CEO Miguel Galuccio explained that La Amarga Chica shares the same high-quality rock and geological continuity as Vista's adjacent blocks. He stated that while Q1 performance was lower, Q2 production ramped up significantly, confirming their forecasts. Galuccio emphasized the strong collaboration and technical information exchange with operator YPF, which he believes will create synergies and improve costs and productivity for both assets, including optimizing well designs and border development.

Bruno Montanari asked for short-term expectations for the second quarter of 2025, specifically concerning production, capital expenditures, and operational activity immediately following the Petronas acquisition.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Miguel Galuccio projected Q2 production to be north of 110,000 boe/d, accounting for 75 days of consolidation. He stated that there are no immediate plans to alter the drilling, completion, or CapEx plans for Q2, with a more significant production increase from new wells expected in Q3.

Bruno Montanari inquired about Vista's production outlook for the first quarter of 2025 and the expected production trajectory throughout the year.

Answer

CEO Miguel Galuccio explained that Q1 2025 production is expected to be flat to slightly lower sequentially. This is a planned delay to align with the Oldelval pipeline expansion ramp-up. He emphasized focusing on the full-year growth target of 35% to 40%, reaching 95,000 to 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a significant production ramp-up planned for Q3 and Q4.

Bruno Montanari questioned how production is expected to evolve quarterly throughout 2025 to approach the newly secured evacuation capacity of 124,000 barrels per day.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Miguel Galuccio stated that after exiting 2024 at 85,000 bpd, the 2025 average target of 95,000-100,000 bpd implies an exit rate above 100,000 bpd. He noted that while total capacity is 124,000 bpd, he expects spare capacity in the Oldelval pipeline, reducing reliance on trucking.

Bruno Montadari from Morgan Stanley asked about Ultracargo's mid-to-long-term expansion prospects and Ultrapar's capital allocation priorities—new business versus dividends—once its target leverage is reached.

Answer

Ultracargo CEO Fulvio Stomelli detailed ongoing expansions at Palmerante, Santos, and Rondonópolis, expecting them to reach mature EBITDA per cubic meter levels by 2026. CEO Rodrigo Pesinado stated that upon reaching target leverage, the company will weigh expanding existing businesses against entering new ones, based on risk-adjusted returns. If no suitable projects exist, dividend payouts will be increased.

Bruno Montanari asked about the nature of competition at Ultragaz, potential synergies between Hidrovias and Ultrapar's existing businesses, and Ipiranga's stance on the sustainability of the CBios carbon credit program.

Answer

Executive Tabajara Costa described Ultragaz competition as short-lived. CEO Marcos Lutz identified the main Hidrovias synergy as knowledge sharing to improve agribusiness logistics. Executive Leonardo Linden and the CEO of Ultra affirmed support for the CBios program but called for fundamental adjustments due to widespread non-compliance, which threatens its viability.

Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley asked about management's contingency plan for CapEx and dividends if oil prices were to fall to the $50/barrel breakeven level. He also questioned if the external pressures on downstream EBITDA in the first half of the year were expected to be fully resolved.

Answer

CFO Camilo Barco Muñoz confirmed that in a low-price scenario, the company would increase investment flexibility and focus on efficiencies while aiming to maintain the 40-60% dividend payout policy, though extreme conditions could force a review. An executive added that major downstream maintenance is complete, resolving key operational pressures, though risks related to light crude supply persist.

Bruno Montanari of Morgan Stanley asked about the risk factors that previously led to a more conservative production curve and whether improved execution could accelerate the revitalization of mature fields to boost midterm production.

Answer

An executive, Sylvia, attributed the strong production growth to the better-than-expected response of pre-salt reservoirs. She noted that while the ramp-up of new platforms is significant, planned shutdowns will level off the growth, but the company remains on track to hit the upper end of its annual target. CEO Magda Chambriard added that a key challenge is advancing the revitalization of '2P' (proven and probable) reserves to reach a production level of one million barrels per day.

Bruno Montanari asked about the expected CapEx trajectory for the remainder of 2025 and inquired about the scheduled maintenance pipeline to better understand the drivers of strong Q1 production.

Answer

Fernando Melgarejo, Executive Director of Finance and IR, clarified that Q1 cash CapEx was impacted by a payment carryover from Q4 2024, which will normalize after Q2, and reiterated the full-year guidance. Sylvia dos Anjos, Executive Director of E&P, noted that Q1's scheduled downtime was planned and that recent exploration successes also contributed to the positive outlook.

Bruno Montanari of Morgan Stanley asked if the anticipated 2024 CapEx implies the production curve could near the upper band of guidance. He also requested details on 2024 maintenance impacts and the outlook for 2025, along with strategy adjustments to ensure delivery integrity.

Answer

President Magda de Regina Chambriard confirmed that advancing CapEx was a strategic move to protect project timelines and ensure deliveries at lower risk, aligning with production guidance. She and Executive Director of Exploration and Production, Sylvia dos Anjos, explained that 2024 production was affected by both scheduled maintenance catch-up post-COVID and unexpected stoppages from a strike at the Ibama environmental agency. They affirmed that all planned shutdowns are incorporated into future production forecasts and that new maintenance units are being hired to improve efficiency.

Bruno Montanari inquired about the potential timeline for distributing the remaining 2023 extraordinary dividends and questioned the company's fuel pricing strategy, noting the nearly seven-month period without adjustments despite market volatility.

Answer

CFO Sergio Leite stated there is no set date for the dividend distribution, but it will be reassessed within the fiscal year, with the board constantly reviewing the volatile market. On pricing, Leite and Commercialization Director Claudio Schlosser explained their strategy avoids passing short-term volatility to clients by operating between a marginal floor price and a customer alternative ceiling, which has proven successful.

Bruno Montanari of Morgan Stanley requested details on the investment timeline and potential CapEx for the newly acquired assets from Total. He also asked about the company's strategy for refinancing its 2026 debt maturities.

Answer

CEO Horacio Daniel Marín stated that the development plan for the new assets will be decided with partners to prioritize activity and seek synergies. CFO Federico Barroetaveña addressed the $2.3 billion in 2026 maturities, explaining that over half are local. He indicated that refinancing efforts would begin late this year, highlighting recent success in the local debt market.

Bruno Montanari of Morgan Stanley inquired about the investment timeline and potential CapEx for the assets recently acquired from Total, and also asked about YPF's strategy for refinancing its 2026 debt maturities.

Answer

CEO Horacio Daniel Marín stated that the development plan for the new assets will be determined in collaboration with partners Shell and CMP to prioritize activity and achieve synergies. CFO Federico Barroetaveña addressed the 2026 debt maturities, noting that over 50% are local. He explained that refinancing efforts would commence in late 2025, expressing confidence based on recent successful issuances in the local market.

Bruno Montanari asked for the investment timeline and potential CapEx for the newly acquired Total assets and inquired about YPF's strategy for refinancing its 2026 debt maturities, particularly the concentration in domestic bonds.

Answer

CEO Horacio Daniel Marín stated the development plan for the new assets will be decided with partners Shell and CMP, with a focus on creating synergies with nearby facilities. CFO Federico Barroetaveña addressed the debt, noting that over 50% of 2026 maturities are local. He said YPF will begin addressing them in late 2025, leveraging the strong local market appetite for its bonds, which has been demonstrated by recent successful issuances.

Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley asked about the timeline and potential CapEx for developing the newly acquired assets from Total. He also inquired about the company's strategy for refinancing the concentration of debt maturities occurring in 2026, particularly domestic bonds.

Answer

CEO Horacio Daniel Marín explained that the development plan for the new assets will be decided with partners Shell and CMP, with a focus on prioritizing development and seeking synergies with nearby facilities to reduce investment per barrel. CFO Federico Barroetaveña addressed the 2026 maturities, noting that over 50% are local. He stated that YPF will begin addressing them from late 2025 into early 2026, highlighting the company's recent success and growing appetite for its paper in the local debt market.

Sought clarification on whether selling U.S. assets is completely off the table and asked about the timing of the portfolio transformation given the high leverage. Also questioned what additional measures are needed to improve results in the U.S. and Europe, and asked for the company's opinion on what would trigger the tag-along clause in a change of control scenario.

Answer

Management reiterated that while U.S. assets are important, no asset is completely off the table for partial or total monetization if it aligns with the transformation plan. They stated the transformation is already underway with major projects. For international results, they explained that Mexico's issue is feedstock supply (being addressed by a new terminal), while Europe suffers from high energy costs. The tag-along question was deemed a legal matter to be addressed only if a concrete proposal materializes.

Bruno Montanari questioned the sustainability of the current EBITDA levels in the midstream business and asked about the timeline for a full recovery of profitability in the liquids segment after the recent operational disruption.

Answer

Alejandro Basso, CFO & Director, acknowledged the strong Q2 EBITDA in midstream services and stated that the company expects this business to continue growing. Regarding the liquids segment, he confirmed that the plant resumed full operations on May 7th, implying profitability would normalize from that point forward.

Bruno Montanari questioned the sustainability of the current EBITDA levels in the midstream business and asked about the timeline for a full profitability recovery in the liquids segment after the flood.

Answer

CFO Alejandro Basso expressed confidence that the midstream business will continue to grow. Regarding the liquids segment, he confirmed that the processing plant resumed full operations on May 7, implying a return to normal profitability from that date forward.

Bruno Montanari inquired whether portfolio recycling would be driven more by subsidiary-level decisions, like increased dividends, or by holding company actions, such as listings or private placements. He also asked about the extent of Cosan's influence on subsidiary decisions and whether the company's debt spread over CDI could be compressed further.

Answer

Executive Rodrigo Alves responded that portfolio strategy is a combination of factors, emphasizing that strategic project execution and portfolio quality will not be compromised. He noted that Cosan influences subsidiaries by providing challenges and best practices for robust capital allocation. Alves confirmed that while urgent liability management is complete, there are still opportunities to reduce the cost of debt and tighten spreads when market conditions are right.