Bryan Smilek

Bryan Smilek inquired about the product roadmap for the Etsy app and its potential future share of GMS, noting that Depop's app accounts for over 90% of its GMS.

Answer

CEO Josh Silverman reported that the app reached a record 44.5% of GMS. He explained the goal is to make the app's browsable surfaces highly personalized, moving beyond one-size-fits-all trend showcases to individualized recommendations. This evolution is designed to gather more user data to power a more engaging, boutique-like experience, ultimately driving a higher share of GMS through the app.

Bryan Smilek inquired about the Q4 revenue outlook, the durability of consumer growth, and the drivers behind the near-term growth deceleration into Q4. He also asked about CapEx, specifically the $20 million in content asset purchases, and how Coursera balances free cash flow growth with incremental content investments.

Answer

CEO Greg Hart explained that the Q4 outlook reflects a raised full-year guidance driven by consumer confidence, strong top-of-funnel, Coursera Plus visibility, and typical Q4 seasonality. On CapEx, Mr. Hart noted satisfaction with content investments, citing 44% catalog growth to over 12,000 courses and gross margin expansion, with AI tools helping reduce per-course spend.

Bryan Smilek asked about the durability of double-digit consumer growth and the factors driving the projected growth deceleration into Q4 2025, given the unchanged macro outlook for enterprise. He also inquired about the balance between free cash flow growth and incremental content investments, specifically regarding the previously discussed $20 million in content asset purchases.

Answer

CEO Greg Hart attributed the raised full-year revenue guidance to consumer confidence, Coursera Plus visibility, marketing, and product efforts, while noting Q4 seasonality typically results in a sequential decline. Regarding CapEx, he expressed satisfaction with content investments driving 44% catalog growth and gross margin expansion, with AI tools potentially lowering per-course creation costs.

Bryan Smilek from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the trends in the enterprise sub-verticals (government, business, campus) contributing to the NRR improvement and asked about the long-term strategy for monetizing AI content and tools.

Answer

CFO Ken Hahn stated that Coursera for Campus is a bright spot and that lapping government contracts helped the NRR calculation, while Coursera for Business remains challenged by macro uncertainty. CEO Greg Hart added that while NRR needs more work, the company is focused on leveraging its growing AI content catalog and tools like Coach to drive deeper engagement and make the content engine more responsive.

Bryan Smilek asked new CEO Greg Hart about his primary focus areas for driving growth and what specifically fueled the record number of new registered learners in Q1.

Answer

CEO Gregory Hart stated his priority is innovation-led growth, focusing on product innovation, expanding the content engine, and enhancing go-to-market capabilities, with initial results expected in the consumer segment. He and CFO Ken Hahn attributed the record learner growth to a mix of successful marketing, platform improvements like AI translations, and strong performance from Coursera Plus subscription promotions.

Bryan Smilek of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the company's confidence in its return to revenue growth through the second half of the year and asked for details on the composition of active member versus ARPAM growth.

Answer

CEO Chuck Cohn cited a highly productive period of AI-native innovation and improved retention in new customer cohorts as key drivers of confidence. CFO Jason Pello provided specifics, noting that Q2 learning membership revenue grew 4% YoY and institutional bookings rose 21% YoY. He projected ARPAM would increase from $348 to $380 by year-end, with active members growing to 40,000.

Bryan Smilek from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the investments needed to improve efficacy and engagement for English learners, who represent a large portion of the TAM. He also questioned how the company is thinking about Duolingo Max pricing in international markets as compute costs decline.

Answer

CEO Luis von Ahn stated that the company is continuously improving content for English learners and that the number of intermediate and advanced learners on the platform is now 'a lot higher' than the 2 million figure cited previously. CFO Matt Skaruppa explained that falling compute costs provide more options for pricing experiments to optimize platform LTV. He emphasized that the strategy is about the relative pricing of Max versus Super and Family plans, and that lower costs could eventually open up new international markets for the Max tier.

Bryan Smilek of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the investments needed to improve efficacy and engagement for advanced English learners. He also questioned how the company is thinking about Duolingo Max pricing in international markets as compute costs decline.

Answer

CEO Luis von Ahn affirmed that English learners are a top priority, with ongoing content improvements driving growth in this large TAM. CFO Matthew Skaruppa added that falling compute costs provide more options for pricing experiments with Max. He stressed the goal is to optimize overall platform LTV, not just ARPU, and that lower costs could enable the launch of Max in new international markets where it is not currently offered.

Bryan Smilek of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the drivers behind strong Daily Active User (DAU) growth, the long-term opportunity in English language learning, and the associated conversion rates.

Answer

CEO Luis von Ahn attributed the 49% YoY DAU growth to product improvements driving retention and word-of-mouth, plus efficient marketing campaigns. He noted that while English learners are under-indexed at ~50% of users, they are growing faster and show a higher propensity to subscribe to Duolingo Max, though reaching the market's 80% share will take years.

Bryan Smilek inquired about the key growth cohorts for Duolingo Max subscriptions, asking about performance by language or geography and the mix of new subscribers versus upgrades from the Super tier.

Answer

CFO Matt Skaruppa explained that Duolingo Max subscriber markets are largely similar to those for Super Duolingo, with Japan being a notable exception with a higher relative share. He confirmed that growth came from both brand-new subscribers and upgrades from existing Super users. CEO Luis von Ahn added that English learners show significantly higher engagement with the 'Video Call' feature, which translates to a slightly higher propensity to purchase Max.

Bryan Smilek asked about the conversion cycle for a Duolingo Max subscriber and how it differs from the Super tier. He also inquired about the primary building blocks for DAU growth heading into 2025.

Answer

CEO Luis von Ahn Arellano explained that users are converting to Max both directly from the free tier and by upgrading from Super, but it's too early to determine a settled pattern. He anticipates Max will be more popular in English-learning countries. For 2025 DAU growth, he expects continued broad-based growth from all regions, layered with accelerating growth from English learners, emphasizing the vast untapped market of 2 billion language learners.

Bryan Smilek, on for Doug Anmuth, asked for a breakdown of the 2025 guidance revision between new client contributions and macro headwinds. He also inquired about the demand and cross-selling opportunities in social channels following the new SKU-level integration with Facebook and Instagram.

Answer

CFO Sarah Glickman stated that the downward revision to the 2025 forecast was driven roughly 50% by the challenging macro environment and 50% by the two specific client scope changes. CPO Todd Parsons explained that the Meta integration is performing well by simplifying client workflows and that the strategy is to extend this efficient, performance-guaranteed model to other social platforms.

Bryan Smilek, on behalf of Doug Anmuth, asked about the monetization curve of Criteo's AI enhancements, which drove a significant contribution ex-TAC uplift, and which AI investments will be critical for maintaining a competitive edge in 2025.

Answer

Chief Product Officer Todd Parsons outlined a three-pronged AI investment strategy: 1) using deep learning for targeting, 2) optimizing the ad experience with AI-generated creatives, and 3) improving internal operational efficiency. CFO Sarah Glickman added that AI teams are well-established and future investments will be incremental, building on a solid base and smart infrastructure spending.

Bryan Smilek, on behalf of Doug Anmuth, asked about the early traction and monetization strategy for new products like ZipIntro and the updated resume database. He also requested more detail on the marketing channels the company will use to acquire and reactivate employers.

Answer

CEO Ian Siegel explained that new features like ZipIntro and the resume database are designed to drive engagement by creating more human-to-human connections, which is evidenced by strong job seeker traffic growth. He stated the company's philosophy is to first provide value and drive adoption before focusing on direct monetization. The goal is to make the job search more efficient, and the growing traffic validates this strategy.

Bryan Smilek asked for details on subscriber churn throughout the quarter, the temporary dip in ARPU in November and December, and whether retention trends differed for users engaging with Chegg's GenAI features.

Answer

CFO David Longo acknowledged a retention dip in November and early December but stated it has since returned to historical levels. He attributed the temporary dip to a combination of factors, including traffic issues and potential calendar lumpiness around Thanksgiving and finals. He confirmed the company is still analyzing the exact cause but is pleased with the stabilization in late December through February.

Bryan Smilek of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for more color on the recent pricing environment and the factors weighing on the Q1 gross bookings outlook.

Answer

CEO David Risher stated Lyft's strategy is to price competitively and reliably, noting that lower prime time is a tailwind for rides. CFO Erin Brewer elaborated that while pricing was stable in 2024, new dynamics of lower market prices emerged late in Q4. She noted that to remain competitive, Lyft's price per mile at the end of January was at a 5-quarter low, but foundational growth in rides and active riders remains strong, with January rides growth in the high teens.