Buck Horne

Buck Horne from Raymond James asked for an update on January and February 2026 leasing trends, including new, renewal, and blended lease rates, as well as insights into total CapEx spending for the upcoming year and its key drivers.

Answer

Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer Matt McGraner reported January new leases were down 7% and renewals up 1.6% (blended -2.6%), while February saw new leases down 5.7% and renewals up 1.7% (blended -1.8%). Vice President of Asset Management Bonner McDermett and Matt McGraner discussed CapEx, noting bulk Wi-Fi as an outsized driver with a revenue offset, stable capitalized rehab/maintenance, and a strategic approach to renovation volume based on pricing power.

Buck Horne inquired about the latest leasing trends for January and February, specifically asking for updates on new lease rates, renewal rates, blended lease rates, and occupancy since the quarter end. He also asked about CapEx spending, its drivers for 2025, and the outlook for total CapEx in 2026.

Answer

EVP and Chief Investment Officer Matt McGraner provided specific figures: January new leases were down 7% with renewals at 1.6% (blended -2.6%), and February new leases were down 5.7% with renewals at 1.7% (blended -1.8%). VP of Asset Management Bonner McDermett and Matt McGraner discussed CapEx, noting bulk Wi-Fi as an outsized item with a direct revenue offset, stable capitalized rehab, and efforts to control capitalized maintenance, with renovation volume dictated by pricing power.

Buck Horne from Raymond James asked for detailed new lease, renewal, and blended rate changes for Q3 2025 and October. He also questioned the elevated CapEx spend and the rationale behind acquiring a new asset in North Las Vegas while the company's stock trades at a discount to NAV.

Answer

Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer Matt McGraner provided specific lease rate data: Q3 new leases were down 4.06%, renewals up 1.94%, blended down 0.44%; October new leases down 3.78%, renewals up 0.70%, blended down 1%. Matt McGraner and Vice President, Asset and Investment Management Bonner McDermett explained elevated CapEx was due to less portfolio recycling and larger non-recurring projects from Freddie Mac refinancing, expecting moderation. Matt McGraner justified the North Las Vegas acquisition as a precision-based, high-cap-rate value-add opportunity that supports external growth targets, while also committing to aggressive stock buybacks.

Buck Horne questioned the strategic rationale behind acquiring a new asset in North Las Vegas, particularly when NexPoint Residential Trust's stock trades at a significant discount to NAV, suggesting that buying back existing stock might offer a better combined NOI yield and growth rate.

Answer

EVP and CIO Matt McGraner clarified that capital recycling and stock buybacks are not mutually exclusive, stating that aggressive stock buybacks are prioritized in the near term. He emphasized the need for external growth through capital recycling, highlighting the North Las Vegas acquisition as a precision-based investment at an attractive 6% cap rate with potential to reach 7.5-8% through value-add, aligning with the goal of achieving $170 million NOI by 2027.

Buck Horne of Raymond James sought more detail on the drivers of strength in the Las Vegas market, the potential peak for new lease rate growth in 2025, and the outlook for capital expenditures for the remainder of the year.

Answer

Matthew McGraner, EVP & CIO, attributed Las Vegas's performance to the 'affordability gap' of their properties in a historically undersupplied market. He also projected that a modest $35-$40 rent increase could achieve the high end of revenue guidance. Bonner McDermett, VP of Asset Investment Management, added that CapEx should remain at a stable run rate with no material changes expected.

Buck Horne inquired about the potential impact of the White House's proposed cap on investor-owned single-family homes (e.g., 100 homes per organization), asking how this might affect the industry, particularly smaller operators, and if it could force them to sell inventory.

Answer

Bryan Smith, Chief Executive Officer, acknowledged the ongoing attention and AMH's active engagement with policymakers at all levels. He noted that the definition of 'institutional investor' and the specific cap (e.g., 100 homes) are still unclear, with Treasury tasked to define it. He reiterated AMH's role as part of the housing solution, especially through its development program addressing supply shortages, and emphasized the importance of single-family rentals within the broader housing ecosystem.

Buck Horne followed up on dispositions, inquiring about the average net proceeds per house ($300,000) compared to median resale prices ($400,000) in most markets. He asked for a characterization of the disposed properties, specifically if they are typically lower quartile, middle of the road, or representative of the portfolio's overall value.

Answer

CEO Bryan Smith explained that disposed properties are typically non-core assets, often in less desirable locations or with characteristics that give them a different growth profile than the development program homes. He confirmed that the average sales price for this cohort is lower than the rest of the portfolio, especially compared to the superior quality and location of new development homes. He added that a primary reason for disposition is location, often involving homes acquired via past consolidation and securitization.

Buck Horne asked about the initial harvest guidance for the combined company, questioning if the slightly lighter projections reflected conservatism or a new sustainable run rate. He also inquired about the pulpwood markets in the U.S. South, seeking signs of a demand bottom and factors that could stabilize pricing amidst continued deterioration.

Answer

President and CEO Mark McHugh clarified that the initial harvest guidance reflects only a partial year (11 out of 12 months) contribution from the PotlatchDeltic Timberland portfolio, not a full pro forma run rate. Regarding pulpwood, McHugh acknowledged challenging conditions due to weaker demand from mill closures and elevated supply from hurricane salvage and dry weather. He believes salvage volume is largely behind them and that long-term hurricane impacts will tighten supply. While not anticipating a near-term bounce back to prior highs, he expects some positive momentum, noting that Atlantic markets, despite recent declines, remain strong relative to the U.S. South.

Buck Horne of Raymond James & Associates asked for clarification on the initial harvest guidance for the combined company in 2026, noting it appeared slightly lighter than expected. He also inquired about the pulpwood markets, specifically the continued deterioration of demand and pricing in the U.S. South, and whether there are signs of a bottom or if more pressure is expected.

Answer

CEO Mark McHugh clarified that the harvest guidance reflects only an 11-month contribution from PotlatchDeltic's timberland portfolio, not a full pro forma run rate. He acknowledged challenging pulpwood conditions due to weak demand (mill closures) and elevated supply (hurricane salvage, dry weather), but believes salvage volume is largely behind them and long-term hurricane impacts will tighten supply, noting Atlantic markets remain strong relative to the U.S. South.

Buck Horne from Raymond James Financial asked about the potential impact of the forecasted active hurricane season on the U.S. South timber markets, especially concerning vulnerability to salvage activity. He also questioned the drivers behind the robust Q3 real estate pipeline and the sustainability of demand for higher and better use properties.

Answer

EVP & Chief Resource Officer Douglas Long explained that Rayonier is actively 'hardening off' its assets by adjusting thinning practices near coastlines to adapt to climate change, a practice he sees other landowners adopting. President & CEO Mark McHugh addressed the real estate outlook, stating that while general demand remains strong across all categories, the significant second-half forecast is primarily driven by a handful of specific, large transactions expected to close, rather than a broad acceleration of activity.

Buck Horne asked for a stratification of MAA's recent performance between Class A and Class B units, including metrics like new lease rates and occupancy, and whether vacancy increases in Class C units are impacting higher classes.

Answer

Tim Argo, COO of Mid-America Apartment Communities, indicated no significant differentiation in performance between Class A and B units. However, he noted a differentiation between urban and suburban areas over the last couple of quarters, with urban areas showing about 40 basis points better blended pricing and 10 basis points higher occupancy.

Buck Horne requested a stratification of MAA's recent performance between Class A and Class B units, including metrics like new lease rates and occupancy, and whether vacancy increases in Class C units are impacting higher classes.

Answer

Tim Argo, COO of Mid-America Apartment Communities, reported no significant differentiation in performance between Class A and Class B units. However, he noted a differentiation between urban and suburban areas over the last couple of quarters, with urban areas showing about 40 basis points better blended pricing and 10 basis points higher occupancy, particularly in Dallas and Atlanta.

Buck Horne inquired about the trend in move-outs to purchase a home and asked for an outlook on job growth in MAA's Texas markets, particularly in relation to the energy sector.

Answer

EVP & COO Tim Argo confirmed that move-outs to buy a home hit a new low of 12% in Q1, driven by affordability issues and economic uncertainty. CEO Brad Hill stated that Texas markets are expected to remain strong job generators, noting that Houston's economy has diversified significantly and is not solely dependent on the energy sector.

Buck Horne from Raymond James inquired about the development strategy in mid-tier versus large markets, the associated yield differentials, and the impact of return-to-office mandates on leasing patterns.

Answer

Brad Hill, EVP and President, affirmed MAA's commitment to allocating capital to both large and mid-tier markets, noting the yield differential is minimal at 10-20 basis points, with projects yielding around 6.25% to 6.5%. Tim Argo, EVP and COO, stated that while urban properties performed slightly better recently, there has been no material shift in leasing metrics attributable to return-to-office policies.

Buck Horne questioned the acceleration in land purchase and development spend in Q4, asking if it targeted specific markets or indicated increased confidence. He also asked about Florida trends, specifically if improving resale inventory was boosting traffic and demand, and about the most effective mortgage rate buydown structures.

Answer

CFO Phil Creek stated that the land spend acceleration was not due to any special strategy but rather how the dollars fell, maintaining a one-year supply of finished lots. CEO Bob Schottenstein provided an update on Florida markets: Fort Myers/Naples is new and bullish, Orlando has held up best with stronger demand, Tampa has picked up importantly after being a tough market, and Sarasota is trending 'so-so.' He reaffirmed M/I Homes' long-term commitment to Florida. President of Mortgage Operations Derek Klutch explained that a 4.875% 30-year fixed rate (sub-5%) is most effective, often supplemented by a 2-1 temporary buydown for a first-year payment around 2.875%. CEO Bob Schottenstein confirmed this strategy, and Derek Klutch highlighted their ability to customize programs for individual customers.

Buck Horne questioned the acceleration in land purchase and development spend during the fourth quarter, asking if it was concentrated in specific markets and if it signaled increased confidence in demand and growth trajectory. He also asked about Florida market trends, specifically if stabilizing resale inventory was boosting traffic and demand. Finally, he inquired about the most effective mortgage rate buydown structures.

Answer

Phil Creek (CFO) clarified that the land spend acceleration was not due to a special strategy but rather operational timing, aligning with maintaining a one-year supply of finished lots. Bob Schottenstein (CEO and President) noted Orlando's strong performance, Tampa's important improvement, and Sarasota's 'so-so' trend in Florida, emphasizing long-term commitment. Derek Klutch (President of Mortgage Operations) and Bob Schottenstein highlighted the 4.875% 30-year fixed rate (sub-5%) as most successful, often supplemented by a 2-1 buydown, and stressed the customization for M/I Homes customers.

Buck Horne from Raymond James questioned the regional divergence in order growth trends, specifically the 17% drop in Northern region orders despite higher community count, and whether M/I Homes is increasing co-broker utilization to clear inventory. He also inquired about the company's capital allocation strategy, particularly regarding accelerating share repurchases given its strong balance sheet.

Answer

President and CEO Bob Schottenstein expressed satisfaction with Midwest market performance and highlighted geographic diversity as a strength. EVP and CFO Phil Creek clarified that the Northern region's order drop was largely due to a tough comparison against an unusually strong sales event in September of the prior year, not a fundamental slowdown. Bob Schottenstein stated that M/I Homes is not increasing incentives for third-party brokers, preferring to invest in internal sales training and lead generation. Phil Creek added that SG&A increased due to more communities and personnel, and a slightly higher sales commission rate. Regarding capital allocation, Bob Schottenstein emphasized maintaining a strong balance sheet and growing the company, with share repurchases being selective and opportunistic. Phil Creek reiterated the focus on low leverage and strong liquidity, especially with increased spec inventory.

Buck Horne inquired if M/I Homes plans to accelerate stock repurchases into year-end, given its strong balance sheet, cash position, and increased financial flexibility from the credit facility.

Answer

Bob Schottenstein (President and CEO) stated that the primary goal is company growth with a very strong balance sheet and low debt levels, but they will selectively buy back shares without compromising growth. Phil Creek (EVP and CFO) added that they consistently repurchase $15 million per quarter and prioritize a strong balance sheet and liquidity, especially with 3,000 specs in the field.

Buck Horne asked if the uptick in June orders was driven by increased incentives or organic demand. He also inquired about the company's housing start pace for the remainder of the year, given the community count growth and delivery goals.

Answer

Robert Schottenstein (Chairman, President & CEO) attributed the June order lift to organic demand, clarifying that the company's primary incentive remains mortgage rate buy-downs, which have been consistent. Phillip Creek (EVP, CFO & Director) added that with 50 new communities opened in the first half, they are managing pricing carefully. Regarding starts, he noted that homes in the field are up slightly year-over-year, and while they need volume, they are focused on prudent growth and not forcing volume to protect their land assets.

Buck Horne of Raymond James Financial questioned whether the uptick in June orders was driven by increased incentives or organic demand, and inquired about the company's strategy for its housing starts pace through year-end to support community growth and delivery targets.

Answer

Robert Schottenstein, Chairman, President & CEO, attributed the June sales lift to organic demand rather than a significant increase in incentives, emphasizing that mortgage rate buy-downs remain the primary tool. Phillip Creek, EVP, CFO & Director, added that the company is managing its starts pace to align with its 10% year-over-year community count growth but is focused on balancing volume and profitability, stating they are not trying to 'force volume' and are carefully managing their spec inventory.

Buck Horne asked about the anticipated margin impact from lot cost inflation and stick-and-brick costs, including potential tariffs, and also inquired if the company would accelerate share repurchases given its strong balance sheet.

Answer

CEO Robert Schottenstein stated that direct construction costs have been stable to slightly lower, with no tariff impact seen yet. However, he does not expect lot costs to decrease due to strong competition for premier locations. Regarding buybacks, both Schottenstein and Executive Phillip Creek affirmed their commitment to a consistent, disciplined repurchase strategy, prioritizing a conservative balance sheet with low leverage over opportunistically timing the market.

Buck Horne asked about the Tampa market, questioning if demand shifts were related to recent hurricanes or rising insurance costs. He also inquired about potential impacts from new immigration enforcement on labor availability and the company's flexibility to accelerate share repurchases given its stock valuation.

Answer

CEO Robert Schottenstein acknowledged that Tampa's market slowdown began before the hurricane but was not helped by it, and that the company is increasing efforts there to generate traffic. Regarding labor, he stated that availability is currently stable but faces future uncertainty. Executive Phillip Creek addressed buybacks, noting the company has a consistent program, repurchased $50 million in the quarter, and will continue to evaluate its strategy based on economic conditions and business needs, without committing to an acceleration.

Buck Horne inquired about any lingering impacts from the recent hurricanes in Florida on fourth-quarter orders or closings. He also asked about potential changes to property insurance costs for buyers and requested elaboration on the recent uptick in sales traffic.

Answer

CEO Robert Schottenstein stated he doesn't expect a material impact on Q4 deliveries but acknowledged there could be some slight, non-material noise in demand in Tampa and Sarasota due to the storms' psychological impact. He noted it's too soon to know the effect on insurance costs but expects them to rise. Regarding traffic, Schottenstein confirmed an encouraging pickup in the last 2-3 weeks but was cautious about elaborating further, noting the fourth quarter is seasonally the slowest time of year. He expressed optimism for a stronger finish to the year compared to the prior year.

Buck Horne of Raymond James Financial, Inc. requested more color on the positive demand shift in Florida, asking about specific buyer segments driving the trend. He also inquired about the current level of activity and strategy regarding single-family rental (SFR) partnerships.

Answer

President & CEO Ryan Marshall highlighted that the move-up buyer in Florida was particularly strong, with orders up 18% year-over-year, and the active adult segment also performed well. He attributed some softness in Northeast Florida to affordability challenges impacting the entry-level buyer. Regarding SFR, he stated it remains a small part of the business, currently around 4% of volume, and while new deal activity has been slower, it has picked up in the last couple of quarters.

Buck Horne of Raymond James questioned the seemingly high land spend for the quarter and requested a geographic breakdown of market performance versus expectations.

Answer

CFO Martin Connor clarified that Q2 land spend was consistent with Q1. Executive Douglas Yearley added that current spending reflects prior commitments that still meet underwriting standards, but they are tightening standards and reducing spend on new deals, which will primarily impact fiscal 2026. He then provided a detailed geographic summary, highlighting strength in the Eastern Seaboard, California, and several Mountain West markets, while noting softness in the Pacific Northwest, Florida, parts of Texas, and Phoenix.

Buck Horne of Raymond James inquired about the specifics of the 141 Livingston Street lease renewal, asking for details on new lease rates and any required tenant improvements.

Answer

David Bistricer, Co-Chairman and CEO, clarified that the current proposal for the 141 Livingston Street lease renewal does not necessitate any tenant improvements (TI). He added that the company anticipates finalizing the agreement in the coming weeks.

Buck Horne of Raymond James inquired about the specifics of the 141 Livingston Street lease renewal, seeking details on new lease rates and any required tenant improvement (TI) allowances.

Answer

David Bistricer, Co-Chairman and CEO, clarified that the current proposal for the 141 Livingston Street lease renewal does not require any tenant improvements and that the company anticipates finalizing the agreement within the next few weeks.

Buck Horne of Raymond James requested additional details on the 5-year lease renewal for the 141 Livingston Street property, specifically concerning new lease rates and any required tenant improvements.

Answer

Co-Chairman and CEO David Bistricer responded that the current proposal for the 141 Livingston Street renewal does not require any tenant improvements (TI) and that the company anticipates finalizing the agreement within the next few weeks.

Buck Horne of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. inquired about the 141 Livingston Street lease renewal, seeking additional details on the new lease rates and any required tenant improvements (TI).

Answer

Co-Chairman and CEO David Bistricer responded that no tenant improvements are anticipated under the current proposal for the 141 Livingston Street lease. He added that the company expects to finalize the renewal within the next couple of weeks.

Buck Horne asked about the potential timeline for solar and lithium option contracts to convert into meaningful revenue and whether homebuilders are increasingly substituting Canadian wood species with Southern Yellow Pine.

Answer

President and CEO Eric Cremers projected that while no solar deals are expected to close in 2025, one or two could begin to materialize in 2026, noting that regulatory backlogs are extending timelines. He also confirmed that the substitution from Canadian species to Southern Yellow Pine has been an ongoing trend for several years and that they are hearing more industry chatter about it recently.

Buck Horne asked if the company's wide stock discount to NAV might prompt the monetization of noncore timber assets to accelerate share repurchases. He also requested an update on the momentum in the solar leasing business.

Answer

CFO David Wold emphasized a balanced capital allocation approach, stating the company is always evaluating levers to create value, including disciplined portfolio management and opportunistic share buybacks. CEO Devin Stockfish added that the solar business is progressing well, with one site operating, two under construction, and a growing pipeline that is expected to add several new sites annually for the next decade.

Buck Horne inquired about any impact from immigration enforcement actions and how the company is viewing the resumption of student loan payments on its buyers.

Answer

Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and CEO, confirmed that none of Taylor Morrison's communities have been directly impacted by immigration enforcement actions. Regarding student loans, she stated it has not been a significant issue, as their buyers typically have a healthy financial buffer. Erik Heuser, Chief Corporate Operations Officer, added that internal surveys do not show student debt as a primary reason for buyer hesitation.

Buck Horne of Raymond James inquired about strategies to mitigate lot cost inflation, such as self-development, and asked for an update on the Yardley build-to-rent business, including lease-up rates and the competitive environment.

Answer

Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser stated that self-development is their primary strategy, with 85-90% of their pipeline being raw land, as finished lots are scarce. Regarding the Yardley BTR business, Heuser noted the two assets sold had strong lease-up rates of 14-15 units per month. While there is some pressure from the broader multifamily market, their niche 'horizontal apartment' product faces less direct competition and recent leasing has been strong.

Buck Horne asked about the drivers behind the significant increase in land spend, current lot cost inflation trends, and the expected timing for an acceleration in community count. He also inquired about any buyer hesitation related to the upcoming election.

Answer

Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser described land and development cost inflation as a manageable 10%. Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer projected good community count growth in the next year, with outsized growth beginning late in the year and accelerating thereafter. Regarding the election, Erik Heuser noted that while it's a topic of conversation, it doesn't appear to be directly impacting sales, as buyer concerns are more focused on the economy and rates.

Buck Horne asked for perspective on potential freezes in USDA program funding, particularly concerning Inflation Reduction Act projects for tenants, and also inquired about the current asking rates for lease renewals.

Answer

Executive Chairman Paul Pittman explained that the company avoids tenants who abuse government programs and that any changes would have a muted impact on Farmland Partners. He clarified the company does not typically pursue government program payments directly. Regarding lease renewals, Pittman noted the three-year average increase was 12.4%, but 2024 was flat to slightly down, partly due to the portfolio sale. He expressed optimism for pushing rent increases in the coming year, citing rising corn prices.

Buck Horne sought to understand the future run-rate for G&A expenses, asking if they would normalize to a lower range after excluding recent one-time severance and transaction costs. He also questioned whether the upcoming election was causing any hesitation or changes in the farmland transaction market.

Answer

Executive Chairman Paul Pittman confirmed ongoing efforts to control overheads. Executive Luca Fabbri added that the recent G&A forecast increase was indeed due to one-time costs and that the run-rate should revert to earlier, lower forecasts. Regarding the market, Pittman stated he does not believe the election is impacting farmland transactions, describing the asset class as operating in its 'own little world' and currently being in a stable 'plateau' phase driven by fundamentals, not politics.

Buck Horne of Raymond James asked if there has been an increase in interest from single-family rental (SFR) investors for the company's longer-dated unsold inventory and if D.R. Horton would consider a bulk sale.

Answer

An executive, likely Matthew Bouley speaking for the team, stated that the company's single-family for-rent business is a merchant build model with ample opportunity to sell to SFR investors, including through forward sales before stabilization. He clarified that the company has not been heavy in bulk sales of its for-sale inventory and is comfortable with its current completed inventory levels heading into the spring season.