C. Stephen Tusa

C. Stephen Tusa inquired about the dollar value per megawatt for orders, asking if content creep was bolstering the massive Q4 orders or if the $3 million-$3.5 million per megawatt framework remained accurate. He also asked about the efficiency of CapEx, specifically how much sales growth an incremental $100 million in CapEx could support.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi stated that the current dollar per megawatt framework is still appropriate, though technology evolution is favorable for content. CFO Craig Chamberlin added that the CapEx increase from 2-3% to 3-4% of sales correlates with growth, emphasizing a gradual, ahead-of-demand approach to capacity expansion.

C. Stephen Tusa asked about the dollar value of orders, specifically if the content per megawatt is increasing beyond the $3 million-$3.5 million framework, and inquired about the CapEx number, seeking to understand the multiple of sales growth that incremental CapEx can support.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi stated that the current $3 million-$3.5 million per megawatt framework is still appropriate, but noted that technology evolution is favorable for content per megawatt. CFO Craig Chamberlin added that the acceleration in CapEx is reflected in the financial numbers and the guidance, with build-outs already underway to deliver capacity.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested more detail on the company's exposure to China imports, the mitigation split between pricing and supply chain actions, and what is driving apparent market share gains.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi stated that tariff countermeasures are a 'good combination' of both pricing and supply chain reconfiguration, without providing specific figures. He affirmed the belief that Vertiv is gaining market share, attributing it to deep industry knowledge, technology leadership like the NVIDIA collaboration, readiness for future silicon, a strong service offering, and global scale.

C. Stephen Tusa questioned the Q1 revenue guidance, which appeared to be a larger sequential decline than normal seasonality, and asked about the perceived disconnect between Vertiv's recent order trends and the significant CapEx plans of its customers.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi advised looking at the Q1 guidance in absolute terms, highlighting the 19% organic growth as very strong. CFO David Fallon added that Q1 sales as a percentage of the full-year guide are actually higher than in 2024. Regarding orders, Albertazzi denied a disconnect, pointing to the massive 60% growth in H1 2024 and noting that customer CapEx includes silicon, not just data center infrastructure.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the Q3 order performance relative to expectations and sought clarification on Vertiv's relationship with ODMs in the liquid cooling market, questioning if they are competitors or partners.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi stated that Q3 orders exceeded expectations and emphasized the strength of the trailing 12-month metric. Regarding ODMs, he positioned them as a go-to-market channel, not as competition. He explained that ODMs often integrate Vertiv's technology, sometimes private-labeled, and rely on Vertiv's service and system-level expertise.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the specific areas of strength within the process business and the role of MRO. He also inquired about any unusual end-of-quarter customer activity, such as pre-buying ahead of tariffs.

Answer

CEO Surendralal Karsanbhai responded that MRO remains robust, accounting for 62% of sales in the quarter. He highlighted life sciences, power, and LNG as the three key growth drivers, supported by a strong capital project funnel. He explicitly stated that the company saw no signs of pre-buying and that the strong April order number reflected accelerating underlying demand.

C. Stephen Tusa from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the mechanics of foreign exchange being a sales headwind but an EPS benefit. He also asked for a more detailed bridge for the strong core incremental margins, inquiring if it was driven by raw material deflation or favorable mix.

Answer

CFO Mike Baughman explained the $0.04 EPS benefit from FX was due to non-recurring transactional losses from the prior year, not from P&L translation. COO Ram Krishnan attributed the strong incrementals to a combination of positive price, favorable net material inflation (deflation), strong business mix led by AspenTech, and cost reductions.

C. Stephen Tusa sought clarification on whether the $150 million backlog increase for the core business was sequential or year-over-year, asked for a walk-through of the neutral EPS impact from AspenTech, and inquired about the ending backlog for the Test & Measurement business.

Answer

CFO Mike Baughman clarified the $150 million core backlog increase was year-over-year and stated the Test & Measurement backlog ended the quarter at $400 million. President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai declined to provide a detailed breakdown of the AspenTech EPS impact calculation but confirmed it was based on core Aspen performance and associated synergies, not other transactions.

C. Stephen Tusa inquired about the long-term margin potential, or 'entitlement,' of the business given its field labor model, and asked if the current portfolio, which integrates Fire & Security with HVAC, is the optimal structure.

Answer

CEO Joakim Weidemanis stated he sees no inherent limit on margin expansion and believes JCI can reach or surpass peer levels by applying LEAN principles and digital tools to the field business. Regarding the portfolio, he is conducting a deep strategic review and will share his conclusions on the business structure at a later date.

C. Stephen Tusa questioned the decision to maintain mid-single-digit organic growth guidance despite strong Q1 results, asking about potential concerns for the second half of the year. He also asked if data center-related sales growth is expected to accelerate in 2025.

Answer

CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck explained the guidance reflects tougher year-over-year comparisons in the second half, particularly Q4, and the need for more clarity on potential tariff impacts and the strength of the APAC rebound. He confirmed that both orders and revenue for the data center business are accelerating, with continued strong momentum expected.

C. Stephen Tusa questioned why Q1 organic growth guidance is only mid-single-digits given strong Q4 orders and a favorable comparison. He also asked for the expected data center revenue percentage in 2025 and sought clarification on the pro forma Global Products margin.

Answer

CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck explained that quarter-to-quarter volatility from large projects, such as in data centers, influences the Q1 guidance despite strong underlying fundamentals. He confirmed data center exposure is approximately 10% of revenue and growing rapidly. He also affirmed that the high-20s margin for the remaining Global Products business is the correct baseline for fiscal 2025.

C. Stephen Tusa questioned what percentage of DuPont's sales in China are 'spec-ed in' and difficult for customers to substitute, and also asked if the company has significant tariff exposure from products imported into the U.S. from China.

Answer

Jon Kemp, CEO-elect of Qnity, estimated that over 70% of the Electronics business's sales in China are 'spec-ed in' materials, making substitution difficult and costly for customers. He also confirmed that the company's primary tariff exposure relates to products shipped to China, not products imported into the U.S.

C. Stephen Tusa asked if there was any evidence of demand pull-forward in Q4 related to tariff concerns and requested the size of the gain recognized in the Electronics segment.

Answer

CFO Antonella Franzen estimated a pre-buy of around $20 million in the semiconductor space, attributing it more to new fab start-ups than tariff concerns. She also confirmed the gain in the Electronics segment was $13 million and had been included in the company's prior guidance.

C. Stephen Tusa from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about business trends exiting September and entering October, and sought details on the drivers behind the strong margins in the Water & Protection (W&P) segment.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch noted that business trends were consistent with normal seasonality, with the typical Q4 slowdown expected in electronics and shelter. She attributed the strong W&P margins to operational execution, benefits from restructuring actions, productivity gains, and the shuttering of older U.S. safety business lines, confirming this provides a strong base for leverage as volumes return.

C. Stephen Tusa inquired about the reasons for the heightened volatility in the Test and Measurement sector compared to the broader economy and asked if any unusual buying patterns were observed in other industrial businesses like Fluke.

Answer

President and CEO James Lico attributed the Test and Measurement volatility to its exposure to R&D-heavy sectors like electronics and semiconductors, where investment decisions are easily delayed amid uncertainty. He noted that customers are pausing, not canceling, orders. For Fluke, Lico stated the business showed good resiliency with positive point-of-sale in North America and durable demand.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if there was evidence of pre-ordering ahead of potential tariffs and inquired about the monthly sales cadence during the quarter. He also sought to identify the specific verticals driving the strongest order rates for Tektronix.

Answer

President and CEO James Lico stated they did not identify significant pre-buying related to tariffs, attributing a ~$10 million pull-forward at Fluke to distributors reaching year-end incentive targets. For Tektronix, Lico highlighted strong orders tied to defense, high-end semiconductor, high-speed compute, and quantum computing. He noted weakness persisted in Western Europe and China, particularly related to EV mobility and export controls.

C. Stephen Tusa inquired about the expected cadence of price realization in Q2 and whether the company was observing any pre-buy activity in its shorter-cycle businesses. He also sought to clarify if the guidance range simply reflects the tariff dynamic.

Answer

Executive Daniel Innamorato stated that price realization will ramp up sequentially in Q2, likely faster in the Electrical segment due to its shorter backlog. EVP & CFO Bill Sperry addressed pre-buys, noting that while logical to assume some is happening, there is no evidence of a significant trend. Sperry clarified the guidance range reflects fundamentals, and the tariff sensitivity is a separate factor that could be a downside risk to the low end if fundamentals also weaken.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for specifics on price realization in Q4 for each segment and the assumption for 2025. He also inquired about the nature of pricing discussions with key utility customers and the expected EPS seasonality for Q1 2025.

Answer

Executive Daniel Innamorato stated that Q4 price realization was positive in both segments and 'more than 1 point' overall. CEO Gerben Bakker described pricing discussions with customers as constructive, focusing on timing rather than necessity. CFO William Sperry projected Q1 2025 EPS would be in the 'low 20s' as a percentage of the full-year total, consistent with prior year seasonality, though Q1 organic growth would be slightly below the full-year target.

C. Stephen Tusa from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the specific price realization in each segment for Q4, the pricing assumption for 2025, and the nature of pricing discussions with key utility customers. He also inquired about the expected earnings seasonality for Q1 2025.

Answer

Executive Daniel Innamorato clarified that Q4 price realization was more than 1 point overall, with the Electrical segment slightly higher than Utility. CFO Bill Sperry projected Q1 2025 EPS would contribute in the low 20s percentage of the full year, similar to 2024's seasonality. CEO Gerben Bakker described pricing discussions with customers as proactive and constructive, focusing more on timing and magnitude than the necessity of price increases, especially with potential tariffs.

C. Stephen Tusa from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the pricing outlook for 2025 with utility customers and whether the strong 2024 utility margins could serve as a base for future growth, considering the destocking headwind this year.

Answer

CEO Gerben Bakker stated that price will remain a lever in 2025, though more modest, emphasizing Hubbell's service-based value proposition. CFO William Sperry noted future margin expansion will rely more on volume-driven incrementals and agreed that the distribution business should see a favorable rebound in 2025 after this year's destocking.

C. Stephen Tusa from JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought clarification on the Q2 2024 adjusted EPS base for comparison. He also asked about potential channel issues with the 454B refrigerant transition and the long-term normalized margin potential for the European segment.

Answer

CEO David Gitlin confirmed the Q2 2024 base was around $0.73 and stated there were no material issues with the 454B transition, with any canister shortages expected to resolve in Q2. CFO Patrick Goris addressed margins, stating the intention is to elevate the Climate Solutions Europe segment margin to the mid-teens within a couple of years by improving the legacy Carrier residential business.

C. Stephen Tusa questioned the discrepancy between Carrier's modest pre-buy assessment and broader industry data for residential HVAC, and asked about the competitive environment and pricing discipline heading into the refrigerant transition.

Answer

CEO David Gitlin defended the company's bottoms-up assessment of a $75 million to $100 million pre-buy, noting that Carrier gained approximately 100 basis points of market share in 2024. He expressed high confidence that the planned 10% price increase on new 454B units will be realized, citing the company's consistent track record of achieving announced pricing despite similar competitive concerns in prior years.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the outlook for the light commercial business into next year and any potential impact from the 'ESSER cliff' as federal school funding winds down. He also asked for the implied adjusted operating margin for the Viessmann business in Q3 and for the full year.

Answer

David Gitlin, Chairman and CEO, responded that it's too early for a 2025 light commercial forecast but noted the focus is on balancing inventory. He explained that ESSER-related spending will continue through 2025 and into 2026, with pent-up local school budgets expected to fill any gap thereafter. Patrick Goris, CFO, confirmed that the full-year adjusted operating margin for Viessmann is in the ballpark of 11%, with EBITDA in the mid-teens.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the company's pricing expectations for the year and for an update on the backlog figure.

Answer

President and CEO Russell Becker stated that pricing expectations for the year, absent significant material cost increases, should be consistent with levels achieved in previous years. He also confirmed the backlog is roughly $3.5 billion, representing organic growth of approximately 5% year-over-year.

C. Stephen Tusa asked if there was a difference in Q1 residential sales between company-owned and independent distribution channels. He also inquired if the company expects its backlog to be positive on a year-over-year basis by year-end. Finally, he sought clarity on the trigger for incorporating tariff-related price increases into the official revenue guidance.

Answer

CFO Christopher Kuehn and CEO David Regnery confirmed that sales to independent distributors (sell-in) were stronger than to company-owned channels in Q1. Regarding the backlog, Regnery stated it will remain elevated throughout the year but declined to give a specific year-over-year target due to lumpiness. On tariffs, Kuehn explained that the potential 1-1.5 points of revenue from pricing is not yet in the guidance. They will update the guidance once there is more clarity on the final tariff landscape, hopefully by the Q2 call, but reiterated that the EPS guidance already covers the net cost impact.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested a breakdown of the mid-single-digit residential growth guide for 2025, asking for the specific impacts from product mix, the prebuy headwind, and underlying market volume. He also asked for the 2025 outlook for light commercial and sought clarification on the 8-10x service revenue multiplier for applied equipment over its lifespan.

Answer

CFO Chris Kuehn broke down the residential forecast into three parts: a ~4 point tailwind from the A2L refrigerant mix, a ~3-4 point tailwind from a return to a GDP+ framework, and a ~3 point headwind from the prebuy. CEO Dave Regnery clarified the 8-10x service multiplier is over the asset's entire ~30-year life, encompassing regular maintenance and periodic technology renewals. Kuehn added that applied markets are expected to grow faster than unitary in 2025.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for a breakdown of the volume versus price assumptions in the updated guidance and sought details on the tariff exposure, specifically the proportion related to China and other potential regional hotspots.

Answer

CFO Mike Stepniak stated the new guidance assumes about 3% price and -2% to +1% volume, reflecting a more conservative volume outlook. CEO Vimal Kapur and other executives clarified that China accounts for 60-70% of the tariff exposure, primarily impacting exports from the U.S. in Aerospace and ESS, while the impact from Mexico is immaterial.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for a bridge to the 100% free cash flow conversion target for the separated entities, given the 2025 guidance implies a lower rate. He also inquired about which entity would be the RemainCo after the separations and how below-the-line items like pension income and environmental liabilities would be allocated.

Answer

CEO Vimal Kapur explained that the legal structure for the separation is still being determined, so it's undecided which entity will be the RemainCo. Incoming CFO Mike Stepniak clarified that the 2025 cash flow guidance is not at 100% conversion, but they aim to reach that target within 24 months, primarily by reducing aerospace inventory. He added that it was too early to detail the allocation of items like pension income.

C. Stephen Tusa from JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested an updated view on the trajectory for 2025, asking about key puts and takes and whether margins could follow a trend-line improvement. He also asked for the specific reasons behind the reduction in the full-year free cash flow guidance.

Answer

CFO Gregory Lewis reiterated that all four business segments are expected to grow in 2025 with broad margin expansion, although Aerospace may see some headline margin pressure from acquisitions. Regarding the free cash flow guidance cut, he identified two primary causes: slower-than-expected inventory reduction in the Aerospace segment and a slowdown in payment cycles from customers in high-growth regions, partly due to geopolitical uncertainty.

C. Stephen Tusa asked about the internal plan for Q2, the near-term financial impact of tariffs, the planned split between price and other mitigation efforts, and the specific rationale for the $0.10 EPS guidance cut.

Answer

Executive Richard Tobin confirmed the Q2 plan aligns with consensus. He explained that tariff impacts will be largely offset by pricing and supplier negotiations, and the $0.10 guidance cut was a mechanical adjustment for uncertainty, not a detailed forecast. He also noted potential offsets like favorable FX and lower corporate costs are not fully baked in.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for clarification on the 2025 margin outlook, questioning if the previously mentioned $25 million in restructuring benefits is still assumed within the 40%+ conversion rate and what the price-cost spread expectation is for the year.

Answer

Executive Richard Tobin confirmed the $25 million restructuring benefit is unchanged and not yet inclusive of future actions. He stated the margin accretion seen in Q4 is a good precursor for 2025, driven by mix and volume. Tobin expects the price-cost spread to be positive, contributing around 1-1.5%, depending on the final product mix.

C. Stephen Tusa pressed for details on the absolute revenue base for 2024, the size of the 'headwind businesses,' the pricing outlook for next year, and whether any other businesses were at risk of decline.

Answer

CEO Richard Tobin estimated the headwind businesses had a base around $1 billion. He described the 2025 pricing outlook as modestly positive, driven more by mix, and confirmed no other major business faces a similar quantum headwind. He did not provide a specific absolute revenue number on the call.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for a philosophical view on surcharges versus price increases, the industry's exposure to China-sourced unitary products, and the rationale behind significant price hikes on 454B refrigerant if supply is abundant.

Answer

Executive Paul Johnston defined a surcharge as temporary and a price increase as long-term, noting only one OEM used a surcharge. He estimated China-sourced ducted systems are less than 5% of the industry. Regarding refrigerant pricing, he explained that both primary 454B manufacturers, Honeywell and Chemours, raised prices, likely influenced by the fact that a key component (R-32) is heavily sourced from China.

C. Stephen Tusa inquired about price volatility for 410A refrigerant and any availability issues with new refrigerants. He also asked for more clarification on how much the recovery of a specific supplier contributed to volume growth and the cost difference for a consumer needing a full system replacement versus just an outdoor unit.

Answer

Executive Paul Johnston stated there has been no significant price spike for 410A, but there are some availability issues for new refrigerants related to special containers. Executive Barry S. Logan noted the recovering supplier is less than 10% of total sales, so its recovery was only a component of growth. Paul Johnston explained it's too early to quantify the exact consumer cost difference for a full A2L system but confirmed it will be higher.

C. Stephen Tusa followed up on the A2L transition, asking about visibility into all OEM pricing and whether the increases are viewed as firm. He also asked for an update on the demand outlook for the light commercial market.

Answer

Executive Paul Johnston confirmed Watsco has visibility into most OEM pricing for A2L, which is in the 8-10% range and appears firm due to added component costs. EVP Barry S. Logan emphasized that Watsco's resale pricing is far more complex than a simple pass-through, managed by its proprietary technology. Regarding the market, Paul Johnston stated that demand for light commercial products has remained strong, with sales still up double-digits.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for more color on the R-454B refrigerant issue, particularly a recent price increase from Honeywell, and whether the commercial slowdown was concentrated in specific verticals.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara clarified the refrigerant issue is a shortage of retail service canisters, not bulk supply, and is unrelated to any specific Honeywell announcement as Lennox has contractual pricing. He expects the canister shortage to resolve by the end of Q2. He also noted the commercial slowdown was fairly uniform across verticals, though more pronounced in planned key account projects than in unplanned emergency replacements.

C. Stephen Tusa sought to clarify if any prebuy occurred in Q3, the relative rate of share gain in Q3 vs. Q4, the absolute dollar basis for the inflation assumption, and the company's plan for potential Mexico tariffs.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara confirmed the prebuy was a Q4 event, but temporary share gains began in Q3 and were stronger in that quarter before slowing in Q4. CFO Michael Quenzer stated the 3% inflation is based on a ~$4 billion cost base. For potential tariffs, Alok Maskara said the short-term response would be pricing, with long-term options including shifting production back to the U.S.

Steve Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked what was driving distributors to stock up late in the season, questioned the math on the 2025 price/mix benefit, asked for an outlook on 2025 industry volumes, and queried the sustainability of share gains taken from competitors.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara clarified that Lennox distributors are returning to normal inventory levels, not stocking up excessively yet. He confirmed the price/mix math leads to a mid-single-digit benefit, projected flat-to-slightly-up industry volumes for 2025, and argued that share gains from competitor stumbles can be sticky, citing Lennox's own past experiences.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the drivers for the 4% service revenue growth, specifically if the muted repair business was the primary factor. He also inquired about the current year-over-year pricing environment for new equipment in China.

Answer

Chair, CEO and President Judy Marks confirmed that slower repair revenue conversion was the main reason for the 4% service growth, attributing it to a conscious focus on 'service excellence' initiatives to improve retention. She noted the repair backlog remains strong, up 5%. CFO Cristina Mendez added that new equipment pricing in China was down 6% in the quarter, a moderation from the 10% decline seen last year, with a goal of achieving price-cost neutrality for the year.

C. Stephen Tusa questioned the implied steep decline in Q4 China New Equipment orders, based on the difference between total and ex-China order growth. He asked how to reconcile this with the more moderate 'down 10%' market outlook for 2025 and questioned the level of visibility.

Answer

Executive Judith Marks acknowledged the analyst's math on the steep order decline was 'not far off.' She reiterated confidence in the full-year market outlook, explaining that the China business is typically two-thirds backlog and one-third book-and-ship. She stated that visibility going into 2025 is similar to the prior year and is informed by January's results.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested specifics on the updated foreign exchange assumptions for the year, including the euro rate used. He also asked if walking away from certain U.S. exports to China was a viable option to mitigate tariff impacts.

Answer

CFO Anurag Maheshwari clarified the FX headwind assumption was revised from $0.20 to $0.15, based on a late-March euro rate of around 1.08-1.09. CEO William Brown addressed the China question, stating that walking away from sales is not a considered option. He emphasized the strength of 3M's business in China and explained the company would instead leverage its global network to mitigate tariffs, such as by sourcing products for China from Europe instead of the U.S.

C. Stephen Tusa asked about the pricing assumption for 2025, the reason for the weaker Q4 margin in the Transportation & Electronics (T&E) segment, and the sustainability of the lower corporate expense level going forward.

Answer

CEO William Brown stated that price will be a net positive in 2025 but declined to provide a specific number. CFO Anurag Maheshwari reiterated that the T&E Q4 margin was impacted by seasonality and inventory reduction but noted the segment had the highest margin expansion for the full year. He explained the lower 2025 corporate expense is due to a final cost reallocation and TSA absorption, not a new sustainable run-rate.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the role of price within the margin algorithm and the outlook for the price-cost spread. He also questioned what the primary headwinds to margins would be, given several positive drivers, and asked for the scale of labor costs.

Answer

CEO William Brown stated that 3M is realizing positive price, which is covering material inflation, and sees further opportunity in surgical pricing and managing discounts. CFO Anurag Maheshwari added that price should continue to cover inflation, with volume and net productivity being the critical margin expansion drivers. Maheshwari identified wage inflation as the main margin headwind going forward, with FX as a variable. He estimated labor costs are in the range of $8 billion to $10 billion.

C. Stephen Tusa inquired about how the enterprise focus on AI is specifically impacting customer budgets and investment decisions.

Answer

CEO Neil Barua explained that the interest in AI is acting as a catalyst for PTC's core business. He argued that customers must first establish a structured data foundation—or "get their digital house in order"—by implementing enterprise PLM and ALM systems like Windchill and Codebeamer before they can effectively leverage AI, thus driving demand for these foundational products.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for clarification on where tariffs are embedded in the 2025 outlook bridge on Slide 21 and whether the potential Mexico tariffs were included. He also questioned the drivers of inflation and how the company separates inflation from sourcing benefits.

Answer

President and CEO John Stauch and CFO Bob Fishman clarified that the guidance embeds the known 10% China tariff ($20 million) within both the inflation and price lines. The potential Mexico tariff is not included in the sales or cost forecast, but its potential EPS impact is captured within the guidance range, as it would be offset by price increases. John Stauch noted that while overall inflation was moderating, they anticipate upticks from the China tariff and freight costs.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked whether revenue declines in Flow and Water Solutions were market-driven or due to 80/20 initiatives, and what the pricing outlook is for the Pool segment.

Answer

President and CEO John Stauch attributed the declines primarily to market conditions, specifically in residential and agricultural spaces. CFO Bob Fishman clarified that Pool pricing for the full year is expected to be between 2.5% and 3%, noting some quarterly lumpiness due to mix and value-based pricing.

C. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned what the massive mega project pipeline implies for 2025 orders and how data center orders translate into shipments, specifically regarding timing and visibility.

Answer

Paulo Sternadt, President & COO, clarified that while specific order timing is hard to forecast, the 60% growth in the negotiation pipeline gives them confidence in the cycle's longevity. For data centers, he explained that Eaton has multiyear visibility with customer commitments and ships products as construction progresses, with components like transformers arriving earlier than others like UPS systems. Craig Arnold, Chairman & CEO, added that a project 'start' signifies ground-breaking, which precedes any shipments.

C. Stephen Tusa from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the utility market, noting a peer's weakness and questioning Eaton's outlook and its role in generation applications. He also commented on the lumpiness of orders and asked why revenue wouldn't accelerate more in 2025, given the large backlog and new capacity coming online.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Craig Arnold stated that Eaton's utility business remains strong, with mid-teens revenue growth in Electrical Americas in Q3, driven by grid hardening, resiliency, and data center demand. On orders, he acknowledged their lumpiness is tied to mega projects, which is why the company provides multiple data points like negotiations. Regarding 2025 revenue, he noted that while volume could accelerate with new capacity, the significant price tailwind from previous years will not be repeated, affecting the total revenue growth rate.

C. Stephen Tusa questioned the strong 32% free cash flow margin, asking if it was sustainable or driven by one-offs and how to think about seasonality. He also asked if AI poses a competitive threat to any of Roper's businesses and if there are signs of disruption.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jason Conley attributed the strong cash flow to an excellent renewal season and record DSO performance at businesses like Deltek and Aderant, noting it was slightly better than expected. President and CEO Neil Hunn addressed the AI threat, stating that while the company is vigilant, it has not identified any existential threats and believes its market position and customer intimacy provide a strong defense against small, bespoke AI startups.

C. Stephen Tusa followed up on the Network Software segment, asking which businesses are accelerating and the size of the MHA headwind in Q1, and also inquired about the new seasonality of cash flow in Q4 following a strong Q3.

Answer

President and CEO Neil Hunn declined to give specific 2025 guidance but expressed confidence in trends carrying into the new year. An executive noted the MHA item would be a couple of points of drag in Q1. Executive VP and CFO Jason Conley clarified that Q3 is now the strongest cash flow quarter and while Q4 will be up, it will not see as large an increase as Q3.

C. Stephen Tusa asked for the reason behind the downward revision of the new transaction model's contribution to billings growth, from 5-6 percentage points to 5-5.5.

Answer

Executive Simon Mays-Smith explained that more business was conducted under the old "buy-sell" model ahead of the European launch than anticipated. This reduced the tailwind from the new model but also implies that the underlying increase in the billings guidance is stronger than the headline number suggests.

Asked about the specificity of the China restrictions (customer type, industry), whether it was an ANSYS-specific issue, and confirmed the limited scope of the financial impact.

Answer

The China restrictions apply to prospects doing R&D in China across industries. The electronics segment's lower mix percentage was due to relative outperformance by automotive, not weakness. The company believes the scrutiny is due to its advanced technology and confirmed the financial impact is contained and not a broad impairment of its China business.