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    Cai von Rumohr

    Research Analyst at TD Cowen

    Cai von Rumohr was a Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst at TD Cowen, renowned for his deep expertise in the aerospace and defense sectors. Over his distinguished 55-year career, he covered leading companies such as Boeing, Raytheon (RTX), and General Dynamics (GD), achieving a success rate as high as 66.7% and generating average returns of approximately 22%, with notable recommendations like a 418% return on Rocket Lab (RKLB). He began his Wall Street analyst career in 1970, spent his entire tenure at TD Cowen and its predecessor firms, and retired at the end of 2024. Von Rumohr is a CFA charterholder and maintained FINRA securities licenses, widely recognized as one of the most influential and long-tenured aerospace analysts on Wall Street.

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Science Applications International (SAIC) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Science Applications International (SAIC) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Cai Von Rumohr requested a status update on two major recompetes, the State Department's Vanguard contract and S3i, and asked for an update on business-impacting protests.

    Answer

    CEO Toni Townes-Whitley stated the Vanguard recompete is expected to continue moving to the right through fiscal 2026. For S3i, she noted it comprises four procurements, with the first expected to be awarded by year-end. CFO Prabu Natarajan added this first award is valued at over $1 billion. On protests, Prabu Natarajan mentioned that about $0.5 billion in contracts won by SAIC are currently in protest, with adjudication expected in the coming quarters.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Science Applications International (SAIC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Cai von Rumohr of TD Cowen asked for clarification on the 1.2x book-to-bill target and the assumed win rates, and also requested an update on the status of major recompetes like Evolve and the Army S1 contract.

    Answer

    CFO Prabu Natarajan confirmed the 1.2x book-to-bill target is on a trailing 12-month basis and assumes a new business win rate comfortably above 30% and a recompete win rate returning to the high 80s/90% range. CEO Toni Townes-Whitley stated the Evolve recompete award is not expected until early next year, with any revenue impact likely in late FY26 or early FY27. She noted the Army S1 contract award is anticipated around the end of the current fiscal year or early FY26.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Rocket Lab (RKLB) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Rocket Lab (RKLB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Cai Von Rumohr asked why Electron's gross margin improved despite a lower average selling price (ASP) in the quarter, and questioned if the company had considered adding penalties for customer-caused launch delays to improve cadence.

    Answer

    CFO Adam Spice attributed the margin improvement to production efficiencies more than offsetting the ASP mix, which was impacted by multi-launch discounts. CEO Peter Beck explained that while some contracts have delay provisions, enforcing them can damage long-term customer relationships. He emphasized that the flexibility to accommodate customer schedules is a key feature of their premium dedicated launch service, and delayed missions remain in the backlog.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Eve Holding (EVEX) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Eve Holding (EVEX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Cai von Rumohr asked for details on the SFAR's diversion and vertiport requirements, the status of servicing competitor aircraft, and Eve's competitive position in services.

    Answer

    CEO Johann Bordais explained the SFAR's energy reserve rules align with helicopter standards but allow for more efficient, tailored reserves on approved routes, which suits urban mobility. He confirmed Eve discusses servicing other OEMs' aircraft at customer request and is a proponent of industry standards like common chargers. He asserted that Eve is unique in its deep, early focus on a complete service ecosystem, leveraging Embraer's DNA to ensure operational readiness.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to PARSONS (PSN) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to PARSONS (PSN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Cai Von Rumohr asked about the drivers behind the 70% growth in the engineering portion of Federal Solutions, specifically the Critical Infrastructure protection market. He also questioned the potential risk of a large, confidential contract sunsetting and its impact on future growth.

    Answer

    CEO Carey Smith attributed the growth to a key confidential contract, industrial-base modernization work like Army ammunition plants, biometrics efforts, and wins in the INDOPACOM region. Regarding the confidential contract, Smith confirmed the customer is considering whether to exercise a final option year or recompete it. She expressed confidence in Parsons' ability to win a recompete, citing a 95% average win rate, and noted the company's overall recompete exposure for 2025 is expected to be a manageable 5% to 15%.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Leidos Holdings (LDOS) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Leidos Holdings (LDOS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Cai Von Rumohr questioned the sustainability of the Health segment's high profitability in its upcoming recompete and asked if the Dynetics business is a key factor in the forecast for low growth in 2025 followed by acceleration.

    Answer

    CEO Thomas Bell expressed confidence in maintaining Health profitability, citing technology and innovation like trusted mission AI as key differentiators. Regarding Dynetics, CFO Chris Cage confirmed it is "definitely in that bucket," with its growth momentum expected to build as programs move toward full-rate production in the coming years. Bell added that the Defense segment had a book-to-bill over 3x, highlighting the restart of the Small Glide Munitions line as a key success.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Cai Von Rumohr of TD Cowen inquired about the potential for improvement in Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), which remains above peer levels, and asked for an update on key demand metrics like the qualified pipeline and submitted proposals.

    Answer

    CFO Matt Calderone explained that approximately five days of DSO are related to unresolved backlog audits and highlighted a four-day improvement in the quarter. He stated the qualified pipeline is strong at around $20 billion. CEO Horacio Rozanski added that the company is not demand-constrained, pointing to a trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.5x, the highest in six years.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to BOEING (BA) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to BOEING (BA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Cai von Rumohr of TD Securities asked if Boeing would consider an external hire for the head of its defense business and if it would divest valuable Global Services assets like Jeppesen to supplement a capital raise.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kelly Ortberg responded that while he would look internally first for leadership roles, he is not averse to bringing in external talent. Regarding divestitures, he confirmed that such options are part of the ongoing portfolio review to determine if assets would create more value elsewhere, but he declined to comment on any specific business like Jeppesen.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Asked for current and future production rates for the Boeing 787, the timing of the 737 MAX rate increase, and the amount and timing of the annual pension contribution.

    Answer

    The 787 rate is assumed at 4.5-5/month but portal demand is higher, with an expectation to reach 8/month in the future. The MAX rate is modeled to ramp up in steps during the second half, reaching 38/month by Q4. The pension contribution will be spread across the last three quarters of the fiscal year.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Asked about the net impact of the $75M price hike, the company's current production rates and inventory for Boeing programs, the status of the H.R. litigation, and what actions could be taken to improve financial flexibility.

    Answer

    The $75M price hike is a gross number, and the net benefit is factored into the 300 bps margin expansion guidance. Production rates for Boeing are being conservatively managed down 20-30% from previous plans to control inventory. There is no update on the H.R. litigation, and no major financial impact is expected. Financial flexibility has improved significantly with leverage down to 4.9x and no debt maturities until 2028.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Questioned the achievability of the strong Q4 forecast given potential supplier slips and asked for an update on a lawsuit from the buyer of the former structures business.

    Answer

    The Q4 forecast does not assume perfection and has allowances for supplier slips; daily delivery assurance calls are being held to manage shipments. Regarding the litigation, the company intends to vigorously defend itself against claims related to 767 fuel tank issues, noting that liability is limited by contractual caps.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR) leadership

    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Cai von Rumohr of TD Cowen asked about labor availability and attrition, specifically in Wichita where it competes with Textron, and in Northern Ireland which is supporting a major production surge.

    Answer

    CEO Pat Shanahan acknowledged that labor scarcity is a key industry challenge in both locations. He noted that while they face competition, their approach to recruiting and training is adapting. He stated that attrition has not been a problem, and the main challenge is striking the right balance on the timing of hiring and training to ensure quality without incurring unnecessary costs.

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    Cai von Rumohr's questions to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Cai von Rumohr of TD Cowen inquired about labor availability and attrition challenges, specifically in Wichita where they compete with Textron, and in Northern Ireland for the A220 production surge.

    Answer

    CEO Pat Shanahan acknowledged that labor scarcity is a top industry challenge. He noted that while they face competition in Wichita and similar challenges in Northern Ireland, their approach to recruiting and training is adapting. He stated that attrition has not been a significant problem for the company.

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