Cameron Mansson-Perrone

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked about Warner Music Group's discussions with traditional DSP partners regarding AI tools and premium/super fan offerings, and the expected benefits from recent Spotify and Amazon pricing announcements, particularly concerning the unchanged basic tier pricing.

Answer

CEO Robert Kyncl confirmed ongoing discussions with DSP partners about integrating AI for enhanced engagement and premium tiers, following WMG's strategy to first establish terms with independent AI players. He expressed satisfaction with recent price increases, reiterating WMG's focus on achieving rate certainty with top DSPs and highlighting consistent high single-digit growth prior to these increases.

Cameron Manson-Perrone inquired about Warner Music Group's discussions with traditional DSP partners regarding AI tools and premium/super fan offerings, and the expected benefit from recent pricing announcements by Spotify and Amazon, particularly concerning the unchanged basic tier pricing.

Answer

CEO Robert Kyncl confirmed ongoing discussions with DSP partners about integrating AI for enhanced user engagement and premium tiers. He expressed satisfaction with recent price increases from DSPs like Spotify and Amazon, viewing them as validation of music's value, and noted WMG's success in securing rate certainty with four of its top five DSP partners, contributing to overall industry growth.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone from Morgan Stanley inquired about the nature of Warner Music Group's new DSP deals, specifically whether the historical benefit of variability in licensing terms still holds or if there's a trend towards more standardized deal structures, especially with wholesale rate increases. He also asked how WMG balances savings initiatives with reinvestment to sustain market share gains.

Answer

CEO Robert Kyncl clarified that while initial deals had variability, as businesses grow, terms tend to standardize. He emphasized WMG's goal for a fair marketplace with consistent pricing across partners to foster healthy competition, indicating more standardization now than in the past. CFO Armin Zerza explained that savings are primarily from back-office efficiencies (e.g., SAP in finance, AI in deal-making) and are leveraged to increase investment in frontline repertoire, high-ROI markets, and promising artists/genres, ensuring that market share gains are not compromised by cost-cutting.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone first asked about the variability in licensing terms across Warner Music Group's deals with existing DSPs, specifically whether there is more standardization now despite securing wholesale rate increases. She then inquired about how WMG balances its savings initiatives with the need to reinvest and continue driving market share gains.

Answer

CEO Robert Kyncl explained that while initial DSP deals had more variability, as businesses grow, terms tend to standardize. WMG strives for a fair marketplace with consistent pricing and healthy competition, leading to more standardization than in the past. CFO Armin Zerza clarified that WMG is not cutting frontline spending but rather increasing investments in core repertoire, markets, and promising projects. Savings are primarily from back-office efficiencies (e.g., SAP in finance, data-driven marketing, AI in deal-making), which are then leveraged to reinvest more strategically.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley inquired about SiriusXM's current competitive positioning and the progress in offering customers more flexible pricing and packaging options. He also asked for clarification on the churn rate expectations for 2026, specifically what contributed to the record low churn in Q4 2025 and why it is projected to slightly increase.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Witz highlighted SiriusXM's strong competitive position, emphasizing its complementary role to music streaming services and unique in-car leverage against AM/FM, supported by new packages like music-only at $9.99 and low-cost ads at $7. Regarding churn, Ms. Witz explained that Q4 2025 benefited from a one-time reduction in vehicle-related churn due to the 'Continuous Service' initiative, which streamlines vehicle changes. She noted strong non-pay results and flat voluntary churn despite a rate increase, expressing cautious optimism for future churn improvements with upcoming functionality.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley inquired about SiriusXM's current competitive positioning, particularly against music streaming services and AM/FM radio, and the progress in offering customers more flexible pricing and packaging options. He also followed up on the churn rate, asking for clarification on the factors that led to the record low 1.4% churn in Q4 2025 and why it's expected to slightly increase to 1.5-1.6% in 2026.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Witz highlighted SiriusXM's strong competitive position, emphasizing its complementary role to music streaming services and unique in-car leverage against AM/FM, supported by new packages like music-only at $9.99 and low-cost ads at $7. She attributed the Q4 2025 record low churn to a one-time benefit from the Continuous Service initiative, which reduces vehicle-related churn, and noted ongoing efforts to enhance retention through data-driven marketing and improved functionality.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone from Morgan Stanley inquired about the broader applications of AI, including voice creation for advertising, and asked about the company's evolving capital allocation strategy, particularly the balance between deleveraging and share repurchases.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Witz discussed using AI in customer service (Sierra) and for ad creation through a deal with Narrative to scale campaigns using approved talent voices. EVP & COO Wayne Thorsen added that AI is also used in search, marketing targeting, and content tagging. CFO Tom Barry reiterated that the capital allocation priorities are unchanged: reinvesting in the business, maintaining the dividend, deleveraging, and then share buybacks. He noted the recent buyback was opportunistic but the overall deleveraging focus remains.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked if the positive churn result from the recent price hike changes the company's 'every other year' pricing cadence, and inquired about any tariff risk to non-satellite CapEx.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Witz stated the goal remains an 'every other year' cadence, but they will continue to evaluate and may raise prices on specific packages more frequently. She stressed the importance of offering a broad range of price points. CFO Thomas Barry addressed CapEx, confirming that satellite infrastructure is U.S.-sourced and non-satellite components have very limited tariff exposure, having been stress-tested by the team.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked for more detail on the 2025 self-pay net add outlook and questioned why the 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance implies a larger decline than what was seen in 2024, given planned cost savings and pricing actions.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Witz clarified that while the underlying subscriber business is expected to perform slightly better year-over-year, onetime impacts in the first half from initiatives like 'click to cancel' will result in a net decline. CFO Thomas Barry explained the EBITDA forecast is primarily driven by the projected revenue decline, which is only partially offset by cost savings initiatives and some cost increases like higher subscriber acquisition costs (SAC).

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked if the 'every other year' cadence for price increases is still expected for 2025 and inquired about the drivers of sales and marketing efficiency, given the improvement in net adds.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Witz confirmed that the company remains on an 'every other year' trajectory for rate increases and is considering a price action for early next year, supported by recent value-adds to packages. CFO Tom Barry addressed sales and marketing, stating that analysis of campaign effectiveness is yielding efficiencies. He anticipates further improvements as the new tech platform provides more data for targeted and effective spending.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone inquired about the general concert bookings trends at The Garden and across the company's portfolio for the remainder of fiscal 2026, and sought early indications on pacing for fiscal 2027.

Answer

David Collins, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, reported a successful first half of fiscal 2026 for bookings. He stated that while theaters are pacing behind for the March and June 2026 quarters, The Garden is pacing strongly for Q3 and Q4 2026, having exceeded its concert bookings goal for the year. For fiscal 2027, Collins indicated strong early pacing for The Garden, including the Harry Styles residency and other multi-night runs, expecting another year of robust concert growth.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone from Morgan Stanley asked for an update on concert bookings trends across The Garden and the company's portfolio for the remainder of fiscal 2026. He also sought early indications on pacing for the first half of fiscal 2027.

Answer

David Collins, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, reported a successful first half with increased total bookings and robust financial results. For the remainder of fiscal 2026, he noted theaters pacing behind but actively booking, while The Garden is pacing strongly, exceeding its concert bookings goal for the year. For fiscal 2027, Collins indicated strong visibility for The Garden, pacing well ahead, including the Harry Styles residency and other multi-night runs, expecting another year of strong concert growth.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone from Morgan Stanley asked for an update on forward booking trends and visibility for fiscal 2026, as well as a specific outlook for the special and other non-concert events calendar.

Answer

David Collins, EVP & CFO, confirmed that the company expects to increase total events in fiscal 2026, with concert bookings pacing ahead of the prior year. He noted they are 80% to their bookings goal at The Garden. While special events face a tough comparison due to the prior year's SNL 50th anniversary, overall growth will be driven by concerts, family shows (like the return of Cirque du Soleil), and marquee sports.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked for the company's latest expectations on the Penn Station renovation and its view on the potential loss of the Garden's property tax exemption.

Answer

Executive Ari Danes addressed the tax exemption, emphasizing the Garden's economic importance, the prevalence of subsidies for other major NY sports venues, and the fact that any repeal requires state legislative action. On Penn Station, Interim CFO Lee Weinberg stated that MSGE is committed to improving the area and is in close collaboration with stakeholders, but had no further updates.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked for elaboration on the reported lower per-cap spending at concerts and whether this trend is indicative of weakening consumer health.

Answer

Michael Grau, EVP and CFO, clarified that the year-over-year decline in per caps was not due to consumer weakness but was a direct result of a difficult comparison against the prior year, which featured high-spending acts like Phish and Dave Chappelle. He noted that Q1 per caps were actually up versus the full-year fiscal '24 average and that sell-through rates and Christmas Spectacular demand remain very strong.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked about the evolving competitiveness in the U.S. ticketing industry, Live Nation's response, and its appetite for international growth within that segment. He also inquired about the deferred revenue growth, asking if it's more indicative of Q4 or 2026 activity.

Answer

President and CFO Joe Berchtold stated that Live Nation views ticketing as a global business with significant underdeveloped international markets, particularly in Latin America, Asia, and parts of Europe, where they are heavily focused on expansion. He affirmed that North America remains competitive, but Live Nation continues to win clients due to its effective platform. Regarding deferred revenue, Joe Berchtold indicated that most of the growth points towards 2026 activity, aligning with a strong pipeline for next year and double-digit ticket sales growth for upcoming shows, with Ticketmaster's deferred revenue also increasing due to new venues.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone inquired about the evolving competitiveness in the U.S. ticketing industry, Live Nation's response, and whether this increases the attractiveness of international growth for the segment. He also asked about the implications of healthy deferred revenue growth (event-related and ticketing) for Q4 2025 versus 2026 activity.

Answer

Joe Berchtold, President and CFO, stated that Live Nation views itself as a global platform with significant underdeveloped international markets in Ticketmaster (Latin America, Asia, parts of Europe), where they are heavily focused on building presence. He affirmed continued competitiveness in North America but highlighted international as a great growth opportunity. He indicated that most of the deferred revenue growth points towards 2026 activity, aligning with the strong pipeline and double-digit ticket sales for next year, given Q4 is cyclically smaller.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone inquired about the sponsorship strategy, particularly around festival naming rights. She also asked for an update on cash savings from the OCESA put option change and the company's capital allocation priorities.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Rapino clarified that there is no new strategy and that festivals and venues have always been key assets for sponsorship. President and CFO Joe Berchtold stated that capital deployment remains focused on venues and projected the OCESA transaction would reduce NCI by about $50 million on a P&L basis in 2026, freeing up cash for reinvestment.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone inquired about the strategy behind festival naming rights within the sponsorship business and asked for an update on cash savings from the revised OCESA put option and the company's capital allocation priorities.

Answer

President & CEO Michael Rapino clarified that there is no new specific strategy for festival naming rights, as festivals have always been a key asset for sponsorship. President & CFO Joe Berchtold stated that capital will continue to be deployed into high-return venue investments and projected the OCESA deal would reduce NCI by about $50 million in 2026, freeing up cash for reinvestment.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked about the drivers of improved AOI per fan in the Concerts segment and whether the venue mix between stadiums and arenas would stabilize in the future.

Answer

President and CFO Joe Berchtold attributed the per-fan growth to the scale of activity relative to the cost structure. President and CEO Michael Rapino noted that venue mix will likely continue to fluctuate due to factors like the World Cup or Olympics impacting stadium availability, but that overall global demand for stadium shows remains very strong.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked whether the drivers for sustained double-digit AOI growth are expected to evolve and sought justification for the significant increase in the 2025 CapEx outlook to $900 million, including the ROI and timing of returns.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Rapino emphasized consistency in strategy, citing global expansion into untapped markets as the key long-term driver. President and CFO Joe Berchtold linked the increased CapEx directly to this growth, stating the company sees attractive, high-ROI opportunities in global venues, especially international arenas. He noted that while project timelines vary, this spending is fundamental to expanding the fan base and delivering future AOI growth.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone questioned the drivers behind the CapEx increase, the new venue pipeline, and the timing of a new amphitheater project. He also asked if the growth in high-value sponsorship partners comes from new or existing relationships.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Rapino clarified that sponsorship growth is primarily from expanding relationships with the existing customer base. President and CFO Joe Berchtold explained the CapEx increase was a bookkeeping change from formalizing a venue partnership, with most capital coming from the partner. He also noted 14 new or refurbished venues are expected by the end of 2025.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone of Morgan Stanley questioned how the shift in Google search activity towards AI Overviews might impact Vivid Seats' SEO and performance marketing channels. He also sought specificity on whether the $25 million in cost savings represents in-period savings or an annualized exit rate.

Answer

CEO Stan Chia acknowledged the evolution of consumer discovery, noting the company is paying close attention and partnering with Google to adapt its platform for AI-driven search. CFO Lawrence Fey clarified that the $25 million is a full-year annualized figure to be fully actioned by year-end, meaning it will layer in over the coming months and be fully realized in 2026 results.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone requested an update on international expansion efforts and asked for more color on how Vivid Seats' participation in performance marketing has evolved compared to previous years.

Answer

CEO Stan Chia reported that early signs from international expansion are positive, with the current focus on building scale across supply, demand, and infrastructure. He noted that while performance marketing remains a proportionally large channel, the company is actively investing in diversifying its marketing mix and building platform features like Game Center to drive long-term customer stickiness.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone requested color on the wide 2025 guidance range, asking for factors framing the top and bottom ends, and sought to understand the potential financial opportunity from monetizing the SkyBox Drive tool.

Answer

CFO Larry Fey attributed the wide guidance to uncertainties in competitive intensity and the consumer outlook, providing flexibility to respond. For SkyBox Drive, Fey estimated a total addressable market of roughly $10 million in annual revenue if all current SkyBox users adopted the tool, noting that since costs are largely already in the P&L, new revenue would have a strong contribution margin.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked for color on which channels were most affected by industry headwinds and for commentary on the implications of recent Oasis tour ticket cancellations in the U.K.

Answer

CFO Lawrence Fey clarified that headwinds were category-specific (softness in concerts vs. strength in sports) rather than seller-type specific. He also highlighted the performance marketing channel as being tougher due to competitor aggressiveness. CEO Stanley Chia noted the Oasis issue was U.K.-specific and reiterated Vivid Seats' commitment to consumer confidence through its buyer guarantee and customer service.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked about Eventbrite's strategy regarding app-based monthly active users (MAUs), the drivers behind the sustained 30% growth in Eventbrite Ads, and whether the Q1 stock-based compensation (SBC) is a good run rate for the rest of 2025.

Answer

CEO Julia Hartz explained that the app is a strategic focus because app users are 3x more likely to buy tickets and are more retentive. She noted that Ads growth is driven by its native integration, performance-based model, and expanding high-intent placements. CFO Anand Gandhi confirmed that the Q1 SBC is a reasonable run rate for the year, possibly representing the high end of quarterly SBC.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone inquired about how free ticket growth translates into revenue, whether it's a leading indicator for paid volume, and the progress in winning back frequent creators. He also asked about capital allocation priorities.

Answer

CEO Julia Hartz confirmed that the strong rebound in free tickets is a clear leading indicator for paid volume recovery, as it rebuilds event supply and drives a virtuous cycle of consumer engagement. She noted frequent creators are returning, supported by new features like timed entry. CFO Anand Gandhi described capital allocation as a balanced approach, prioritizing both managing debt maturities and executing the authorized share buyback program, given the shares' attractive price.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone asked for more detail on the paid creators who left the platform after the organizer fee transition, where they went, and which win-back initiatives have been most effective.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Julia Hartz explained that churned creators primarily moved to homegrown solutions or smaller competitors, not major rivals, making Eventbrite confident in its win-back efforts. She highlighted that the strategy involves marketing campaigns promoting the new free tier and showcasing recent platform enhancements like TikTok integration and 24/7 premium support. Hartz noted early success, with 0.75 million tickets sold by won-back customers since early September.