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    Carlo Santarelli

    Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank

    Carlo Santarelli is the former Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst for Gaming & Lodging at Deutsche Bank, distinguished by over 25 years of Wall Street experience and a data-driven analytical approach. He has covered leading companies such as DraftKings, Hyatt Hotels, MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, and Gaming and Leisure Properties, achieving a 72.7% price target met ratio and an average recommendation upside of 27%, with documented high-performing calls like DraftKings. Santarelli began his career after graduating from the University of Pennsylvania in 2000, holding key research roles at Bear Stearns, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo before joining Deutsche Bank, and in 2025 was appointed Senior Vice President for Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations at Gaming and Leisure Properties. He is regularly recognized in Institutional Investor polls and holds a strong reputation among institutional investors, though specific securities licenses or FINRA registrations are not publicly listed.

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to PENN Entertainment (PENN) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to PENN Entertainment (PENN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about the cadence of lapping competitive pressures in the retail business over the next 12-18 months. He also asked about the financing timing for the development pipeline and the expected operational disruption from land-based casino conversions.

    Answer

    Head of Operations Todd George explained that the last major competitive opening will be lapped in February of next year, but the next 12 months will be 'noisy' due to PENN's own projects coming online. CFO Felicia Kantor Hendrix added that financing for these projects will be timed to match their openings to avoid premature costs, highlighting significant optionality with their REIT partner, GLPI. George detailed that disruption would be minimal for most projects, with an expected two-week downtime for the Aurora and Joliet relocations.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to PENN Entertainment (PENN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank inquired about the financing timing for the two Illinois land-based projects with GLPI and the decision-making framework for the Online Sports Betting (OSB) business against its 2025 targets.

    Answer

    CFO Felicia Kantor Hendrix stated that financing for the Illinois projects will be timed close to their opening to align rent expenses with revenue generation. CEO Jay Snowden added that for the OSB business, they expect continuous market share improvement in 2025. If targets are not met, they have levers to pull, such as adjusting marketing spend and cost structure. He also noted the three-year clause in the ESPN contract allows for re-evaluation if performance goals are not achieved.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to PENN Entertainment (PENN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank asked about the path to interactive breakeven in 2025, seeking color on the sequencing of cost reductions. He also questioned the Q4 brick-and-mortar guidance, specifically the year-over-year EBITDA decline despite flat revenue.

    Answer

    CEO Jay Snowden stated that the path to interactive profitability includes the launch of the Hollywood iCasino app, which has a stronger margin profile, and cost efficiencies from scale. Head of Operations Todd George addressed the retail guidance, explaining that Q4 has seasonal margin pressure and that Q4 2023 benefited from onetime items, which accounts for the year-over-year difference.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about the first-quarter decline in Las Vegas promotional spending and its connection to the prior year's Super Bowl, and also asked about the expected cadence for the remaining equity contributions to the Wynn Al Marjan Island project.

    Answer

    CEO Craig Billings confirmed the lower promotional spending was tied to the Super Bowl comparison, as reinvestment correlates with the exceptionally high Average Daily Rates (ADR) from that event. CFO Julie Cameron-Doe stated the remaining UAE equity of $650-$725 million will be deployed through the rest of 2025 and into 2026. Craig Billings added that this contribution is pro-rata with debt financing, not an equity-first model.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank inquired about Wynn's conservative Las Vegas table hold percentage assumptions, the translation of strong Q1 top-line metrics to EBITDA, and the competitive landscape in Macau for 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Craig Billings acknowledged their conservative stance on hold percentage and confirmed they will continue to evaluate it. He indicated that strong Q1 volume metrics, excluding the Super Bowl, are indicative of healthy demand and expressed confidence in managing costs. Regarding Macau, he described the market as competitive but stable, reiterating their focus on maximizing EBITDA and margin over market share.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked for an outlook on 2025 across Wynn's regions, inquiring about the revenue required to maintain margins, anticipated cost increases, and the potential financial headwind in Las Vegas from lapping the previous year's Super Bowl.

    Answer

    CEO Craig Billings explained that the company focuses on aggressively managing revenues and costs rather than a specific margin target. He noted that in Las Vegas, the high-end consumer remains stable against very tough comps, with major union wage increases now lapped. For Macau, he described the competitive environment as intense, with a focus on maximizing EBITDA over market share. Billings declined to quantify the Super Bowl headwind but noted that Q4 demand for the F1 event was shaping up nicely.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Red Rock Resorts (RRR) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Red Rock Resorts (RRR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked about the drivers behind strong Q1 operating expense control and margin flow-through, the progress of revenue backfill at the Red Rock property following Durango's opening, and the timing of the $110.5 million capital return from the North Fork project financing.

    Answer

    Executive Scott Kreeger attributed strong margins to better sports win, leveling payroll, and a 35% drop in utility costs. Executive Stephen Cootey added that revenue growth on top of Durango's launch highlights core business strength, though insurance costs are a headwind. Cootey also stated the Red Rock revenue backfill is running about six months ahead of schedule and confirmed the North Fork capital return would be recognized in Q2.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Red Rock Resorts (RRR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank AG inquired about the quantifiable impact of sports betting hold in Q4 and the expected EBITDA seasonality moving into Q1.

    Answer

    Executive Stephen Cootey quantified the negative year-over-year sports betting hold impact as $8 million in October and an additional $6 million in December. Regarding seasonality, he noted that historically, Q1 EBITDA tends to increase by approximately 6.6% compared to Q4.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Red Rock Resorts (RRR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about the typical Q4 versus Q3 seasonality for the Las Vegas locals segment and sought clarification on the full-year 2024 capital expenditure guidance.

    Answer

    Executive Stephen Cootey explained that historically, Q4 EBITDA is up about 12% from Q3, but cautioned that October sports results were unfavorable by about $7.6 million. He also confirmed the full-year 2024 CapEx guidance of $185 million to $195 million excludes the Durango project closeout costs, which were approximately $97 million for the year.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to MGM Resorts International (MGM) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to MGM Resorts International (MGM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired if lower-than-expected labor cost increases were tied to the company's formal cost-saving program and asked for clarification on the accounting for business interruption insurance proceeds.

    Answer

    CFO Jonathan Halkyard confirmed that managed labor costs reflect continuous efficiency efforts, including a reduction in FTEs. CEO William Hornbuckle added that increased use of digital customer interaction is boosting productivity. Halkyard clarified that the business interruption proceeds are recorded in EBITDAR, not revenue, and that while more claims are pending, the majority of expected funds have likely been received.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to MGM Resorts International (MGM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked about the magnitude of 2025 revenue initiatives in Las Vegas and whether the company aims to offset the significant Q1 headwind from lapping the Super Bowl.

    Answer

    Executive Jonathan Halkyard noted that January was a very strong month and quantified new revenue initiatives in the 'tens of millions of dollars.' He confirmed the Super Bowl headwind is about $65 million, and while the goal is to overcome it, the MGM Grand renovation presents a similar challenge. Executive William Hornbuckle added that the company still projects growth for the year, implying these headwinds can be surpassed.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to MGM Resorts International (MGM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank asked for context on the $80 million baccarat swing and the challenging Q4 hold percentage comparison from the prior year. He also questioned if the current promotional reinvestment rate of around 44-46% is a sustainable go-forward level.

    Answer

    Executive Jonathan Halkyard quantified the prior year's Q4 high-hold benefit at approximately $70 million but pointed to a healthy group environment in December as a partial offset. CEO William Hornbuckle added that F1 gaming theoreticals look strong for the upcoming quarter. Regarding promotions, Halkyard confirmed that the current reinvestment rate is a 'decent' and 'safe level' to assume going forward.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Caesars Entertainment (CZR) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Caesars Entertainment (CZR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about the Las Vegas forward booking outlook, particularly the group business mix, and sought clarification on a prior-year 'other revenue' item in the Digital segment that could create a headwind.

    Answer

    CEO Tom Reeg stated that 2025 is expected to be a record year for group business, with particular strength in Q4, and that forward cash room revenue for Q2 looks in line with last year. President of Caesars Sports Eric Hession confirmed the Digital headwind, explaining that the 'other revenue' category, comprising skin fees and World Series of Poker revenues, is expected to see significant declines in Q2 and Q3 as WSOP event revenue normalizes to zero and skin values deteriorate.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Caesars Entertainment (CZR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked about the 2025 expense outlook for Las Vegas and Regional segments, and inquired about potential strategies to unlock the value of the Caesars Digital segment, which appears undervalued.

    Answer

    President and COO Anthony Carano noted that smaller union contract increases in 2025 and operational efficiencies should position the company well on expenses. CEO Tom Reeg added that the company recognizes the valuation disconnect for its Digital segment and would explore all strategic avenues to drive shareholder value if market dynamics persist, emphasizing the advantage of owning the full tech stack.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Caesars Entertainment (CZR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about the Digital segment's promotional spending strategy, particularly whether the launch of the Horseshoe iCasino brand would alter reinvestment levels, and asked for details on the differing promotional approaches for sports betting versus iCasino. He also asked for the 2025 outlook for Las Vegas, seeking specific metrics on group booking visibility.

    Answer

    Eric Hession, President of Caesars Sports and Online Gaming, explained that sports betting reinvestment is low (about half the market average), while iCasino reinvestment is in line with the market to drive growth and will not change with the Horseshoe launch. Brian Agnew, an executive, added that for Las Vegas in 2025, the group segment is pacing for another record year, with expectations for higher occupied room nights and rates driving increased revenue and EBITDA.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about Hilton's perspective on the potential for a recession, asking what indicators, beyond near-term demand, are reminiscent of prior cycles or cause for concern.

    Answer

    President and CEO Christopher Nassetta stated his personal opinion that market risk is currently weighted too heavily to the downside. He expressed optimism that potential legislative progress on regulatory reform, energy, and tax cuts could create more stability in the second half of the year. Nassetta emphasized that the underlying economy remains strong, citing employment, wage growth, and corporate balance sheets, and noted that the company feels an obligation to provide guidance despite the uncertainty.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked about the percentage of unit growth from conversions in 2024 and the outlook for 2025, and also inquired about the moving parts behind the tougher Q1 adjusted EBITDA growth comparison versus the full year.

    Answer

    Christopher Nassetta, President and CEO, stated that conversions were about 45% of 2024 openings including partnerships, and will normalize to about one-third in 2025. Kevin Jacobs, CFO and President, Global Development, added that the Q1 EBITDA comp is tougher due to a couple of one-time items and FX impacts from the prior year, and adjusting for those brings growth in line with the company's algorithm.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli requested more detail on the outlook for leisure and business transient segments in 2025, given the commentary that overall 2025 performance will resemble 2024 and that group booking pace is strong.

    Answer

    President and CEO Christopher Nassetta projected that the group segment would see the highest growth, in the mid-single-digit range. He expects business transient to follow with low-single-digit growth, similar to the current year. For the leisure segment, he anticipates a 'modestly positive' outcome, with demand likely flat to slightly down but offset by continued pricing power.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to DraftKings (DKNG) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to DraftKings (DKNG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank sought to reconcile the components of the 35% revenue growth guidance, considering structural hold improvements and promotional savings. He also asked about the outlook for adjusted sales and marketing expenses in 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Jason Robins affirmed the analyst's reconciliation was 'pretty good' and noted that the company has numerous initiatives aimed at beating its prudent guidance. CFO Alan Ellingson explained that sales and marketing costs will fluctuate with acquisitions, but the long-term focus is on optimizing fixed costs to achieve the company's target of approximately 30% EBITDA margins.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to DraftKings (DKNG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank requested a breakdown of the drivers behind the 31% revenue growth guidance for 2025, asking to parse it between market growth, market share, and promotional changes. He also asked about ARPMUP growth.

    Answer

    CEO Jason Robins explained the guidance is a bottoms-up build based on cohort data, implicitly assuming flat market share. He said growth is primarily driven by natural market expansion, handle growth, and some structural hold improvement. Regarding the 8% ARPMUP growth, Robins attributed it to smarter management of legacy customers and hinted at improved product-level disclosures in the future.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to BOYD GAMING (BYD) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to BOYD GAMING (BYD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli sought clarification on the flattish same-store EBITDA outlook for the Midwest & South segment in 2025 and asked how the company frames the returns on M&A versus internal capital projects and buybacks.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg confirmed the flattish outlook, citing caution due to the retail segment not yet pivoting to sustainable growth. He explained that capital allocation is a balanced evaluation of alternatives, prioritizing projects with the best returns, whether they are internal investments, share repurchases, or M&A.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to BOYD GAMING (BYD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about the Midwest and South segment's margins excluding Louisiana, the outlook for the Las Vegas Locals segment in Q4 considering seasonality and competition, and sought clarification on expense accruals from the previous year.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg explained that excluding the new Treasure Chest casino, margins in the rest of the Midwest and South segment actually improved slightly. President and CEO Keith Smith noted that the full impact of local competition won't be anniversaryed until 2025 and mentioned the ongoing Tropicana interchange project continues to affect access to the Orleans. Hirsberg also clarified that Q4 last year benefited from broad-based favorable expense adjustments, particularly in the Midwest and South.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to BOYD GAMING (BYD) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked about the company's strategy for converting other riverboat casinos to land-based facilities and for an outlook on the core versus retail customer segments.

    Answer

    Executive Keith Smith confirmed a prioritized list of development projects exists, ranked by potential returns. Executive Josh Hirsberg clarified that while projects like Par-A-Dice are planned, they are not expected to generate the same high level of returns as the successful Treasure Chest conversion due to different market dynamics. Keith Smith added that after adjusting for Q1's calendar and weather noise, the core customer continues to grow, while the retail customer remains consistent.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked about LVS's capital allocation strategy regarding Sands China (SCL) share repurchases and questioned the drivers behind the significant acceleration in mass gaming revenue at Marina Bay Sands (MBS).

    Answer

    President and COO Patrick Dumont affirmed a strong belief in the SCL growth story and stated the company's intention to actively acquire more SCL shares. Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein, along with Patrick Dumont, attributed the MBS success to a combination of a strong Singapore market, the fruition of capital investments, and the growing high-value tourism segment, calling it an accelerating trend rather than a one-time event.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli asked for the cadence of hotel rooms returning to service in Macao and questioned how much of the approximately 400-basis-point decline in EBITDA market share since 2019 could be recaptured upon completion.

    Answer

    Sands China CEO Grant Chum outlined the room return schedule, noting a temporary dip in Q4 2024 before a significant ramp-up to full inventory by mid-Q2 2025. He expressed strong confidence that the completed Londoner Macao, with its unprecedented scale and quality, will drive a recovery in both EBITDA and market share.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli inquired about the strategy for balancing share repurchases between Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Sands China Ltd. (SCL), and asked for clarification on the EBITDA benefit from higher mass table hold at Marina Bay Sands (MBS).

    Answer

    President and COO Patrick Dumont stated that the company sees value in both LVS and SCL equity and will be aggressive in repurchasing shares of both, aiming to increase their SCL stake to 74.9%. Regarding MBS hold, Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein explained that higher hold is driven by the composition of bets, particularly side bets, and that future smart table technology will provide precise data. Dumont added that the primary driver of MBS's record performance is the growth in the mass segment from high-value tourism, not just hold fluctuations.

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    Carlo Santarelli's questions to GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT (GDEN) leadership

    Carlo Santarelli's questions to GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT (GDEN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank sought clarification on the 'stable year-over-year' Q4 outlook for the Nevada Casino segments and asked for more detail on the M&A disconnect between buyer and seller EBITDA expectations.

    Answer

    Charles Protell, President and CFO, confirmed that 'stable' meant flat year-over-year performance for the Locals casinos and Laughlin in Q4, while the STRAT is expected to be down slightly due to labor costs. Regarding M&A, Protell elaborated that the disconnect stems from buyers, like Golden Entertainment, taking a more conservative view on future underwriting EBITDA compared to what sellers are projecting.

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