Carlos de Alba • Morgan Stanley

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CFO Ryan Corbett declined to share specific contract milestones but noted Apple's prepayments will occur ahead of the mid-2027 production start. CEO James Litinsky emphasized the company's '$2 billion fortress balance sheet,' making the prior bridge facility less relevant. COO Michael Rosenthal described the recycling facility as modular, initially serving Apple and internal needs, but designed to grow with the market to process third-party feedstocks.

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COO Michael Rosenthal noted the Midstream ramp will likely see step-change improvements rather than linear progress. CFO Ryan Corbett added that it is largely a fixed cost absorption issue, and costs will come down as throughput increases. For the Upstream 60K project, Corbett explained that production growth from improved recovery has a nearly full drop-through to the bottom line, and further growth will leverage fixed costs, resulting in a significant positive cost benefit.

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CFO Rafael Japur acknowledged that working capital days have increased due to a strategic shift towards higher-value products. However, he stated there is still room for improvement and that the company is actively working to reduce its cash conversion cycle from the current 84-85 days to a target closer to 80 days.

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CFO Rafael Japur detailed that the HRC line will add 150k-200k tonnes of production in 2025, while the mining project is on track for a late 2025 completion with benefits materializing in 2026. CEO Gustavo Werneck opined that effective trade defense requires closing tax loopholes and implementing 'hard quotas' on imports. He suggested the rebar market imbalance will be resolved through a combination of factors, including competitive pressure on weaker players, which Gerdau's strong balance sheet can withstand.

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CFO Rafael Japur reiterated the strategic rationale for exploring an SBQ investment in Mexico, driven by near-shoring and automotive growth. For the second half of the year, he expects a margin recovery in the Brazil division as cost optimizations take effect and anticipates further working capital release. He stated that a new share buyback program would be evaluated once there is more visibility on the company's cash generation throughout the year.

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Carlos Medeiros, EVP of Operations, noted the briquette line is stabilizing, hitting a record 40,000 tons in July. Rogério Nogueira, EVP of Commercial & Development, added that customer trials have been excellent. Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals Ltd, cautioned that H2 copper costs will be impacted by planned maintenance, making performance 'back-end loaded,' and that current guidance already factors in ramp-up risks.

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Executive Rogério Nogueira confirmed strong client interest in briquettes, with successful industrial trials underway. Executive Carlos Medeiros added that the plant is ramping up as expected, targeting 600,000 tons by year-end. Executive Gustavo Duarte Pimenta responded that Vale is focused on developing its own unique mineral endowment, like the 'Novo Carajas' initiative, which holds the most significant opportunities.

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Executive Shaun Usmar of Vale Base Metals detailed significant progress, including a nearly $200 million annual run rate in overhead reduction and productivity gains at Salobo and Sossego. On the Mariana issue, Executive Gustavo Duarte Pimenta stated that Vale believes the comprehensive Brazilian settlement is the fairest and best path for all parties and that the company is seeing good traction on its implementation.

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Executive Gustavo Duarte Pimenta revealed that the iron ore cash cost in June was $22 per ton, supporting confidence in the full-year guidance. He also stated that while the railway concession renewal discussions are highly advanced, a final resolution is still pending but expected in the next couple of months.

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CFO Pablo Brizzio indicated the company aims to reach an average EBITDA margin of around 15% by Q4 2025, with Q3 showing continued improvement. CEO Máximo Vedoya quantified the long-term impact of the Pesqueria expansion, noting the new capacity will have a long ramp-up but will add significant EBITDA per ton. Regarding the Usiminas litigation, he stated there were no significant developments since Q4 2024 and an appeal is pending. For the Schiphol facility, he confirmed they are now sourcing most supply from local U.S. suppliers.

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CFO Pablo Brizzio indicated that EBITDA margins are expected to continue improving, targeting around 15% by Q4 2025. CEO Máximo Vedoya added that new Mexican capacity would add $150-$200 EBITDA per ton for new volumes and $30-$40 per ton in efficiency gains on replaced volumes, following a long ramp-up period. Vedoya also stated that the Shreveport facility now sources locally due to tariffs and that there were no new significant developments in the Usiminas litigation since the last update.

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CEO Maximo Vedoya confirmed the Pesqueria finishing lines are ahead of schedule and will reach full capacity within 2-3 months. The cold roll mill's start has been advanced to December 2025, with a 9-12 month ramp-up to full capacity. CFO Pablo Brizzio added that the Q1 EBITDA increase is expected from stable shipment volumes and a significant decline in costs that will outweigh a slight decrease in realized prices, leading to margin improvement.

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CEO Leon Topalian indicated potential pressure in flat sheet but highlighted offsetting strength and strong backlogs in plate, beams, and bar products. EVP Randy Spicer confirmed that the bar business has very strong momentum, multi-year high backlogs, and extending lead times, supporting a confident outlook for the second half.

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President and CEO Leon Topalian identified potential pressure in flat-rolled sheet, partly due to slab tariffs, as the main driver of the Q3 outlook. However, he and EVP Randy Spicer expressed strong confidence in the long products businesses, citing robust demand, multi-year high backlogs for bars, and near-historic backlogs for beams, suggesting margin strength and potential expansion in those areas.

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CEO Leon Topalian declined to predict a specific Q2 utilization rate but suggested rates could slightly improve from Q1's 80% level due to encouraging demand. CFO Stephen Laxton stated that Nucor's inventories are roughly in line with historical levels when adjusted for seasonality and current backlogs.

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CEO Leon Topalian stated that Nucor's volumes into Mexico are small and high-value. Executive Noah Hanners added that the company has flexibility in sourcing substrate for its CSI mill, mitigating import risks. Regarding M&A, Topalian confirmed Nucor is always looking for opportunities but will remain highly disciplined on valuation and focused on executing its current slate of major capital projects.

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CEO Leon Topalian and executive Brad Ford identified high import levels as a key pressure point on long products, though underlying demand remains resilient. CFO Steve Laxton noted the lag effect in sheet pricing due to contracts. For Steel Products, executive John Hollatz confirmed backlogs are stable, carrying into Q1 2025, but projected seasonal shipment declines and some margin compression in Q4.

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CEO Leandro García stated they don't foresee major risks with the final operating permit and expect it on time for a Q4 2025 first gold pour. CFO Daniel Dominguez Vera clarified that the total project CapEx remains between $720M-$750M, with $130M-$160M remaining for H2 2025. VP of Operations Juan Carlos Ortiz detailed the ramp-up plan, noting it will extend through 2026, with the dry stacking facility in a V-shaped valley being the main initial constraint. He also confirmed a stockpile of 100,000 tons of ore is already on the surface.

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CEO Leandro García stated that authorities have been invited to the site in September and he does not foresee significant risks with the final operating permit. He confirmed the total CapEx remains between $720M and $750M. CFO Daniel Dominguez added that $130M to $160M in CapEx is expected to be disbursed in the second half of 2025. VP of Operations Juan Carlos Ortiz explained the ramp-up will extend through 2026, with a cautious approach on the tailings facility due to the valley's shape. He also confirmed a current ore stockpile of 100,000 tons.

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President & CEO Jonathan Price explained that the ship loader repair is expected to extend into the first half of 2026 due to thorough assessment and permitting requirements, but it is not impacting production thanks to alternative trucking arrangements. Regarding project sequencing, he noted that while Zafranal is more advanced, both are considered valuable options and no decision on their order has been made.

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CEO Jonathan Price explained that the independent testing is a pass/fail validation against performance criteria and not a process designed to provide improvement suggestions. He specified that the power outage resulted in a direct shutdown of about two days, with another two days required to ramp back up to full rates, for a total impact of roughly four days.

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CEO Jonathan Price emphasized that the primary focus is on shareholder value creation through organic growth, which he described as the most value-accretive path. He highlighted the strong balance sheet and the ongoing $1.8 billion share buyback authorization. While aware of M&A activity in the sector, Teck's priority remains its internal projects like HVC, Zafranal, and San Nicolas. Regarding Zafranal, he confirmed it is in a very strong position and close to a sanction decision, but the final sequencing of projects depends on economics, permitting, and engineering readiness.

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CEO Jonathan Price stated that Teck believes its existing concession for San Nicolas provides protection, but whether that translates into a development permit is still an open question. COO Sherhzad Bharmal explained that QB2 had about three extra days of downtime in September, and the planned downtime in H1 2025 is for minor reliability improvements, not due to any 'fatal flaw' in the plant.

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President & CEO Kathleen Quirk stated they are studying a roughly 30% expansion at the Miami smelter. She noted that future projects like Lone Star will have a significant leach component, providing processing flexibility. She clarified that discussions with the government have focused on Freeport-McMoRan's near-term initiatives to boost domestic supply, not on potential government support for new smelter construction.

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President & CEO Kathleen Quirk stated they are studying a potential 30% capacity increase at the Miami smelter. She noted the Lone Star project would have a significant leach component, offering processing flexibility. She clarified that discussions with the government have focused on Freeport's near-term initiatives, like the leach program, rather than government support for new smelters.

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CEO Mark Millett stated there was no material change in the company's outlook for the aluminum facility. CFO Theresa Wagler reaffirmed their confidence in achieving EBITDA positive results in the second half of 2025, clarifying that mentioning Q4 was not intended to signal a significant delay but to provide more specific color.

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EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler acknowledged some customer hesitancy in Q1 but confirmed that momentum seen in March and April points to strength in the second half of the year. President & COO Barry Schneider supported this, stating that project activity is robust, previously stalled projects are now moving forward, and he anticipates volume growth through Q2 and into the second half of 2025.

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COO Barry Schneider expressed confidence in the trade case but noted they consistently optimize production to favor higher-margin products. CEO Mark Millett added that the company's core strategy is to innovate and diversify its value-add mix, not rely on trade policy. CFO Theresa Wagler reiterated the fabrication outlook, expecting normal Q4 seasonality followed by stronger volumes and price support in 2025.

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EVP & CFO Molly Beerman noted that while contracts are annual, Alcoa will balance margin optimization with maintaining strong customer relationships. President, CEO & Director William Oplinger reported that the Alumar restart remains a challenge, operating at about 92% capacity due to pot failures, with a target for a full restart by year-end.

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EVP and CFO Molly Beerman projected a significant working capital reduction throughout the year after the Q1 build, which was driven by shipment timing and raw material prices. Both she and President and CEO William Oplinger clarified the tax guidance does not imply a Q2 loss but is a 'catch-up' adjustment due to a lower full-year profit forecast, which impacts the annualized tax rate calculation.

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President and CEO William Oplinger highlighted Alcoa's track record, citing the past sales of the Rockdale and Intalco sites for significant value. He named Point Comfort and Wenatchee as potential assets but declined to set a timeline to ensure maximum value. For San Ciprián, EVP and CFO Molly Beerman outlined potential cash closure costs of $40-$50M for the smelter and ~$200M for the refinery (excluding severance), payable over 5-7 years.

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CEO William Oplinger reiterated that the company is pushing for a resolution at San Ciprian before the entity is expected to run out of cash around year-end, but provided no new timetable. He also stated that the incremental impact from the current slate of smaller return-seeking CapEx projects would not be notable.

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CFO José Carlos del Valle Castro explained that the working capital outflow is expected to reverse, with a goal of being flat for the full year. He attributed the large Q1 figure to higher tax payments and a one-off $61 million payment for tax contingencies. CEO Ignacio Rosado confirmed that Nexa benefits more from higher zinc prices than higher TCs in the current year due to its fixed contracts, but noted that strong copper and silver prices are providing a partial hedge.

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CEO Ignacio Rosado confirmed the expectation for Aripuana's EBITDA and cash flow to be higher in 2025. CFO José Carlos del Valle Castro clarified the dividend policy is 20% of free cash flow (cash from operations minus sustaining CapEx) with a minimum of $0.08/share. Executive Rodrigo Cammarosano specified the 2025 sustaining CapEx guidance is $316 million. CEO Ignacio Rosado added that working capital should be near neutral annually but will retain quarterly volatility.

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CEO Ignacio Rosado acknowledged that negative TCs are creating a challenging environment for smelters and that Nexa is evaluating production cuts if purchasing concentrate becomes unprofitable. He emphasized that Nexa's high vertical integration (50% at Cajamarquilla, 80-90% in Brazil) provides a significant advantage over peers.

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President Kaes Van't Hof stated the 'decade' reference is based on sub-$40 breakeven wells, which is the industry gold standard. While inventory expands at higher prices, the strategy is to be the last to drill lower-return wells. He explained the DUC drawdown is level-loaded, but if operations are efficient, the company may opt to drill more wells to maintain a high DUC balance for operational flexibility rather than realize the full capital benefit immediately.

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CFO Michael Kennedy stated that Antero has over a decade of liquids drilling inventory, which it replaces annually through its organic leasing program, followed by another decade-plus of dry gas inventory. He clarified that the 16 wells turned to sales in January had the vast majority of their capital spent in 2024. He noted that while average lateral length varies annually, the company's typical length is around 13,000-14,000 feet, among the longest in the basin.

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Executive Raul Jacob stated that cash cost before by-products should remain around $2.00 per pound for 2024, with potential improvement in 2025 from higher by-product output. He confirmed the dividend policy is a Board decision but the cash/stock split preserves liquidity for projects and a $500M bond payment in 2025. He also noted the company holds 99 million shares in treasury.

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Executive Raul Jacob clarified that Southern Copper is proceeding with the approved desalination plant for Tia Maria but may consider a dam in the future. He stated the project's $1.4 billion CapEx is being revised to include a new road and technology updates, with a new budget expected by year-end. He projected the cash cost before by-products to be approximately $2 per pound for the year.

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Executive Raul Jacob explained that the stock dividend utilizes treasury shares, providing shareholders with flexibility while conserving cash for potential future needs, such as the Tia Maria project. He stated that while the company monitors M&A, its primary focus remains on its strong organic growth pipeline. Regarding costs, Mr. Jacob anticipates costs before by-products to remain stable, with increased by-product credits from the new zinc concentrator expected to benefit the overall cash cost.

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